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MIG Reports analysis of voter sentiment on economic issues shows a clear pattern: Trump > Harris. Across numerous samples and economic topics, Americans voice their strong preference for Donald Trump’s policies and leadership.
Inflation
Inflation remains a central point of frustration, with 55% of voters in the MIG Reports sample favoring Trump’s policies. They cite his administration's ability to maintain lower costs of living and greater community safety. In contrast, only 18% expresses support for how Biden and Harris handle inflation, while 27% remain uncertain or neutral.
America First
Government spending draws even stronger criticism toward Democrats. While 65% support Trump’s fiscal policies, only 14% back Biden-Harris spending strategies. Many accuse the administration of prioritizing foreign aid over domestic needs. Sentiment is particularly strong in discussions of the misallocation of taxpayer dollars and recent government responses to Hurricane Helene. Americans are frustrated that economic assistance is sent liberally abroad while middle-class hardships remain unaddressed.
Taxation
Taxation is another hot topic, with 60% preferring Trump’s tax cuts, especially for the middle class and businesses. Only 20% view Harris’s proposed tax increases favorably. Skepticism runs high, with many believing the tax plans would burden the middle class further rather than provide relief.
Open Border Effects
Illegal immigration continues to dominate the economic discourse, with 55% arguing lax border policies under Biden and Harris exacerbate job competition and strain public services. Only 12% support the administration’s approach to immigration, and 33% are uncertain about its economic impact.
Executive Leadership
Leadership emerges as a stark contrast between the candidates, with 70% voicing confidence in Trump’s leadership on the economy. People view him as a more pragmatic and business-oriented leader. In contrast, only 15% support Harris’s leadership, with many criticizing her as disconnected from the economic struggles of everyday Americans.
Articles
Americans on social media are reacting to the increased kinetic events in Israel with clear negativity. Analyzing these discussions reveals a widespread dissatisfaction with the actions and positions of all nations involved.
U.S. conversations reflect dissatisfaction with Israel's military strategies, outrage at Iran's aggressive stance, and criticism of U.S. foreign policy. Each party faces its own unique form of condemnation, highlighting the complexity and contentiousness of the geopolitical landscape.
Israel’s Unpopularity
Israel's role in the conflict, particularly its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, draw widespread criticism from Americans. Many accuse Israel of using excessive force and causing disproportionate civilian suffering, especially in Gaza.
There is a strong sentiment that Israeli actions, particularly in response to missile strikes, contribute to an endless cycle of violence that exacerbates tensions in the region. Some discussions point to Israel’s historical military engagements as part of the larger problem, saying its aggressive posture has failed to secure peace and intensified animosity. This perspective sees Israel as a key provocateur in the ongoing conflict, with military operations as heavy-handed and counterproductive.
However, many Americans also defend Israel’s right to self-defense, especially in the face of Iranian missile strikes and the activities of Iranian-backed militias. This camp, though supportive, still voices frustration over the humanitarian toll. This suggests, even among Israel supporters, there is unease about the broader consequences of conflict.
Iran’s Unpopularity
Americans widely condemn Iran’s actions, especially the recent missile strikes on Israeli targets. Many frame Iran as a destabilizing force in the Middle East, blaming its military provocations for escalating the conflict. People view Iran as an aggressor for using its missile technology and supporting militant groups like Hezbollah. People see Iran as a direct threat to regional and global security.
Discussion emphasizes the danger of Iranian-backed forces and the broader implications of Iran’s involvement, with some expressing fear that these aggressive actions could lead to a larger global conflict.
Despite this, a small group argue Iran’s military actions are a form of retaliation against Israel’s long-standing dominance in the region. This group suggests the focus on Iran as the aggressor overlooks the broader context of Israeli military operations. They claim Israel provokes responses from Iran.
U.S. Actions and Criticism
The United States, specifically under the Biden administration, also faces substantial criticism for its handling of the conflict. A common narrative is that the U.S. has emboldened Iran by easing sanctions and engaging diplomatically with Tehran.
Critics argue this perceived appeasement has allowed Iran to become more aggressive in its actions against Israel, leading to the current state of heightened tensions. Many contrast this with the Trump’s foreign policy, which people say maintained a firmer stance on Iran, thereby preventing such escalations.
There is also frustration with how the U.S. media portrays the conflict. Americans accuse mainstream outlets of bias, especially in how they report on Israeli and Iranian actions. This perceived media manipulation adds to the dissatisfaction with U.S. leadership, as many feel public perception is being shaped to fit a particular narrative rather than reflecting the complex realities on the ground.
03
Oct
Donald Trump’s recent proposal to “staple a green card to every diploma” for graduates caused discussion within his base. The policy, which aims to retain skilled international graduates in the U.S. workforce, clashes with ongoing debates about immigration, the economy, and job competition.
Sentiment trends, potential voter impact, and deeper implications of this policy vary across Trump’s core base, Independents, and crossover voters. Analysis of voter discussions reveals the potential impact of this proposal on the election.
Summary of Findings
- 65-80% of Trump’s base endorses the policy for its economic benefits.
- 40-58% of Independents express cautious support but remain skeptical about job competition.
- At least half of crossover voters criticize the policy as politically motivated and say they would be less likely to vote.
- 10-15% of the base say this policy would increase their likelihood to vote
- 5-15% of Independents say it could increase their likelihood to vote.
Trump’s Core Base
The MAGA base is largely enthusiastic about the green card proposal. The policy resonates with those who see it as an economically sound solution to fill gaps in the American workforce. They appreciate that the policy focuses on retaining skilled talent, particularly in tech and innovation sectors, aligning with the economic nationalism that Trump has emphasized throughout his campaigns.
Comments from Trump’s base reveal a clear endorsement of the policy as beneficial to American economic growth. Voters feel Trump is prioritizing the U.S. workforce and addressing real labor shortages. However, around 20-30% are concerned about potential job competition, worrying the policy could lead to higher competition for American workers—particularly in lower-skilled sectors.
Independents
Independents are divided, with around half cautiously supporting it. These voters appreciate the focus on retaining high-skilled graduates, seeing it as a practical move to bolster economic growth and innovation in the U.S. However, many independents remain wary of Trump’s broader immigration policies and question the long-term impact of such a proposal on job competition.
The skepticism of this group stems from concerns about how the policy may affect the job market for American workers. Some view the proposal as a necessary economic measure, while others express doubt about its implementation and potential unintended consequences.
Crossover Voters
Crossover voters, or moderates, are overwhelmingly negative about the green card proposal. This group, which traditionally leans Democratic, views the policy as politically motivated.
For many, the proposal feels like an electoral ploy rather than a genuine attempt at reform, leading them to further distrust Trump’s intentions. However, there is a possibility this dialogue stems from anti-Trump voters who are reacting to these discussions merely to oppose any Trump policy as they normally would.
The dominant concern among this demographic is that the proposal will exacerbate existing immigration issues without addressing deeper systemic problems. Many see it as another example of Trump’s divisive approach to politics, which alienates them further. This opposition is likely to drive turnout against Trump, with crossover voters potentially mobilizing to vote for an alternative candidate.
Turnout Implications
The overall voter turnout trends suggest Trump’s green card proposal may energize his base. Supporters feel empowered by the economic and nationalist rhetoric with all his economic policies and are likely to engage more deeply in local campaigns.
However, for Independents, the policy yields mixed results, potentially driving modest gains in turnout among those who prioritize economic growth but failing to inspire more skeptical individuals. Crossover voters, on the other hand, show strong opposition.
03
Oct
The vice-presidential debate on CBS between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz sparked partisan discussion, memes, and potentially moved certain voter sentiments. Even many Democrats and mainstream media outlets are declaring Vance the decisive victor.
One of the most discussed moments of the debate was Tim Walz’s inability to clearly explain his misrepresentation about being in China on the day of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
Worst moment of the night for Walz: stumbling through an explanation of why he lied about being in China during the Tiananmen Square massacre.
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 2, 2024
One of the most awkward debate moments of my lifetime. pic.twitter.com/L6NBRAIl3F
Vance’s Decisive Victory
Most voters and media figures agree that J.D. Vance outperformed Tim Walz during the debate. This includes Washington Post polling confirming swing state voters consider Vance the winner—14 to 8. Mainstream media figures like Geraldo Rivera, Jake Tapper, and Chris Cuomo all conceded Vance’s victory.
Media reactions after the JD Vance vs. Tim Walz debate.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024
Geraldo Rivera: JD Vance won the debate.
NBC: Does Tim Walz have a problem with the truth?
Chris Cuomo: JD Vance fact-checked the moderators and he was right.
CNN's John King: Vance carried the important issues.
CNN's… pic.twitter.com/5rICMSivUC
Vance's assertiveness and command over key issues like immigration, law and order, and the economy helped him establish a dominant presence on stage. His assertiveness without becoming combative or insulting appeals particularly to voters in swing states and conservatives who cringe at Trump’s bombastic style.
Post-Debate Sentiment
MIG Reports data shows:
- Vance’s support increased to 52% (+2)
- Walz’s support decreased to 48% (-2)
This uptick in Vance's favor post-debate indicates his performance not only solidified his base but may help sway some undecided and Independent voters. While Walz remained steady among his core supporters, the drop in his overall numbers shows a lack of confidence in his performance.
- National approval for Vance moved from 44% on Friday to 49% post-debate.
- Walz’s approval moved from 47% on Friday to 46% post-debate.
- Both candidates generated significant discussion volume jumping from less than 10,000 mentions on Friday to 78,122 of Walz post-debate and 91,624 of Vance.
Voter Sentiment Breakdown
Republican Base
Vance’s explicit loyalty to Donald Trump and his framing of issues like immigration played well with the GOP base. His confidence and casual but precise take-down of Walz and moderator questions created a surge of praise and memes. MAGA voters see Vance as a strong voice that will carry forward Trump-era policies.
Some conservatives, however, expressed displeasure with Vance’s abortion comments, voicing frustrations that he is too moderate on pro-life issues. Others, however, say Vance had Walz on his back foot regarding abortion—an issue Democrats tend to win.
Democratic Base
Walz’s focus on reproductive rights and healthcare continues to please the Democratic base. They appreciated his defense of progressive values and insistence on being pro-woman.
However, many Democrats understood that his demeanor was less confident, overwhelmed, and less impressive than Vance’s. Many pivoted away from Walz’s performance to suggest that VP debates and VP performance in general is less important than presidential conduct.
Independent Voters
As usual, Independents are divided. Some appreciated Vance’s confident and composed demeanor, but others were skeptical of his evasive responses. They particularly disliked his responses to questions about Trump and healthcare.
Still, Vance’s unflappable presence led to focus group, polling, and sentiment data showing most Americans conclude Vance won. Vance’s performance may also appeal to certain Independents looking for stability and leadership in uncertain times.
Key Issues During the Debate
Among the issues discussed at the debate, immigration and abortion stand out.
MIG Reports analysis shows:
- Sentiment toward Vance in the 24 hours post-debate reached 44% while Walz stood at 43%.
- Immigration sentiment was 43% for Vance and 44% for Walz.
- China sentiment was 48% for Vance and 43% for Walz.
- Sentiment on the economy was 46% for both candidates.
Immigration
Vance's portrayal of the current immigration system as chaotic and harmful to the American economy resonates deeply with voters concerned about border security. This issue is particularly salient in swing states like Arizona and Florida, where border policy is a top voter concern. However, many critics took issue with Vance firing back at moderators who attempted to fact check his statements about Haitian migrants in Ohio.
JD Vance refuses to accept the fake fact check and calls out the moderators on it so they shut his mic. Incredible pic.twitter.com/yuQ0QRfYsz
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 2, 2024
Election Integrity
Vance’s response on the legitimacy of the 2020 election results divided voters along partisan lines. While it cemented his standing with Trump’s base, most other voters disliked his discussion of the 2020 election and January 6. It raised concerns among swing voters and Independents about his commitment to democratic processes.
Abortion
Although abortion is a strong issue for Democrats, it was likely one of the most divisive topics during the debate. Vance appealed to some moderates with his softer language on abortion compared to strict pro-life advocates, angering some conservatives.
However, Vance also cornered Walz on the issue of late-term abortion when Walz failed to answer a direct question about the law he signed in Minnesota. This rare maneuver by a Republican led some to feel Walz lost ground for Democrats on their top issue.
FACT: Tim Walz signed a law that allowed babies to be left to die if they survive an abortion.
— Students for Life of America | Pro-Life Gen (@StudentsforLife) October 2, 2024
Babies who are BORN ALIVE. pic.twitter.com/brmlbohKtK
Climate Change
Democrats responded positively to Walz’s position on climate change but many on the right criticized the moderators for making a question about the devastation of Hurricane Helene about climate change.
While climate change was the topic of the second question in the debate, for voters, this issue remains secondary to economic and immigration concerns.
Election Impact
J.D. Vance's victory in the vice-presidential debate strengthens his position in the Republican party as a strong leader and effective communicator. His ability to maintain support from the GOP base while reaching out to Independents and undecideds may be important in swing states.
Meanwhile, Walz and Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket face the challenge of coming across as relatable and confident to voters. Many on both sides of the aisle agree that Vance won but couch their observation in uncertainty about how much the victory can impact the election amid many other major events like potential war in the Middle East, Hurricane Helene aftermath, the dock worker strike, and critical border issues.
02
Oct
Whistleblower allegations linking Minnesota Governor and Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are sparking online discussion. Voter reactions vary based on political affiliation, with strong opinions on both sides.
- Republicans view the allegations as confirmation of foreign influence on U.S. politics.
- Democrats largely dismiss them as politically motivated attacks.
- Independents express skepticism and curiosity, asking for transparency.
🚨BREAKING: Chairman Comer Is Subpoenaing DHS After Whistleblower Reveals Information on Governor Walz’s Ties to the CCP
— Oversight Committee (@GOPoversight) September 30, 2024
According to recently received whistleblower disclosures, we’ve learned of a non-classified, Microsoft Teams group chat among DHS employees and additional… pic.twitter.com/VRuXBbf2dR
Voter Reactions
MIG Reports analysis shows:
- Republicans: 70-85% view the allegations negatively
- Independents: 55-60% ambivalence, demanding transparency
- Democrats: 55-70% dismiss the claims as politically motivated
- 65-72% of all voters have concerns over foreign influence
- 60-65% of all voters distrust the media
Republicans
For Republicans, the whistleblower allegations heighten existing fears of foreign interference by China—and adversarial country. Roughly 70-85% of Republicans expressed strong negative sentiment, viewing this news as validating existing concerns that Democratic leaders are compromised.
Right leaning voters deeply distrust Walz, rallying behind calls for accountability and continued investigation. Many also hope these revelations will mobilize voters who care about national security and sovereignty.
Independents
Independent voters have varied responses, with 55-60% expressing ambivalence. They are curious and concerned but hesitate to accept the allegations at face value. Their reactions underscored the need for transparency and thorough investigation.
Many are frustrated with political sensationalism and worried increasingly scandalous claims with no significant resolution or clear evidence, could undermine serious political dialogue.
Democrats
Democratic voters largely reject the whistleblower allegations, with 55-70% dismissing them as politically motivated attacks. Many view the allegations as an attempt to discredit a prominent Democratic leader ahead of the 2024 election.
Many are skeptical about the validity of whistleblower claims, framing them as part of a broader effort to destabilize their party and divert attention from critical issues like healthcare and the economy.
Broader Public Concerns
In general, Americans have significant political and societal anxieties. Around 65-72% of voters say they’re concerned over potential CCP influence in U.S. politics and looming war. This concern transcended partisan lines, highlighting widespread fears about foreign policy and influence.
Additionally, 60-65% say they distrust media coverage, with both sides of the political spectrum criticizing the way the allegations are being reported. Especially among Republicans, there is criticism toward CBS for failing to mention the allegations during the Vice Presidential Debate.
Many Americans turn to alternative media sources like X, believing mainstream outlets either downplay or sensationalize the story.
02
Oct
The public reaction to a chemical fire in Conyers, Georgia, reveals an overwhelming sense of frustration, fear, and distrust. Voter discussions center on health concerns, government failures, and the larger implications for environmental safety.
MIG Reports data shows 60-65% of discussions express negative sentiment, driven by outrage at perceived regulatory negligence. People are in disbelief that such an incident could happen, emphasizing a lack of strict safety protocols and failures in government oversight. This frustration extends to local and federal bodies responsible for ensuring chemical facilities maintain safe operations.
A look at the fire in Conyers just after 3PM. I-20 remains closed. https://t.co/jx18N8rJ9T pic.twitter.com/CaNVIPldpt
— Cody Alcorn (@CodyAlcorn) September 29, 2024
Sentiment Trends
- Health concerns dominate, with many worried about long-term effects from chemical exposure, especially for children and vulnerable people. The release of toxic chemicals, like chlorine, heightens fears about air quality and safety.
- Around 25-30% of comments call for stricter regulations and better oversight, with discussions often expanding to broader issues like pollution and climate change.
- 10-25% of the discussion is neutral or positive, focusing on the need for transparency or praising emergency efforts.
Distrust Dominates the Discourse
There is a persistent undercurrent of public distrust regarding the Conyers chemical fire. This sentiment is evident in many discussions where individuals express skepticism about both governmental oversight and corporate accountability. The distrust is primarily directed at regulatory bodies, which many accuse of failing to enforce adequate safety measures. People feel the event was avoidable and attribute the incident to negligence and a lack of strict protocols for handling hazardous materials.
Voter distrust extends beyond the immediate incident to an overarching feeling of disillusionment with how authorities manage public safety, particularly when it comes to industrial hazards. Many see the fire as part of a pattern of systemic government failures, with critiques of regulations and corporate interests that. Americans say both prioritize profit over safety.
Distrust around official communications from local authorities about the fire’s severity fuels further concerns, with people doubting if they’re being told the full story.
The community’s response is one that both seeks accountability for this specific event but also questions the overall reliability of institutions responsible for public safety.
02
Oct
The aftermath of Hurricane Helene continues to devastate the Southeast, with hundreds dead and missing and thousands losing property and possessions. The scale of the damage has left communities reeling as many face the daunting task of what to do next.
In particular, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee face a long road to recovery, with floodwaters still high, homes destroyed, and infrastructure in ruins. Rescue efforts are a topic of discussion across America as relief is still painfully slow, even five days later. For rural Appalachia, already struggling with poverty and limited resources, the storm has intensified a sense of abandonment. People are left wondering when—or if—meaningful help will arrive.
Many Americans are furious with the federal government, who they say is leaving them in the lurch and not showing up to help. Viral clips of Joe Biden saying there are no more federal resources to be given infuriates families still in the midst of life-altering destruction.
Biden on Hurricane Helene:
— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) September 30, 2024
Reporter: "Do you have any words to the victims of the hurricane?"
Biden: "We've given everything that we have."
Reporter "Are there any more resources the federal government could be giving them?"
Biden: "No."
pic.twitter.com/ZavQQFd2xq
Victims Still in Critical Need
For thousands impacted by Helene, there is a sustained sense of desperation. Whole towns and communities have been wiped out and many people are still trapped or missing, making the lack of timely federal aid feel like a slap in the face. Roads are destroyed, water and electricity infrastructure are inoperable, damage to homes and cars make escaping or sheltering difficult, and many are asking where FEMA and government rescue efforts are.
This woman has family trapped in Spruce Pine, North Carolina for 4 days… She just called out Biden and Harris live on NBC: pic.twitter.com/FFT11nuOPM
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 1, 2024
MIG Reports data shows:
- 60% of voters express frustration over the federal government’s disaster response, particularly FEMA delays and perceived inefficiencies.
- 55% mention the Biden-Harris administration’s focus on immigration exacerbating FEMA’s slow response, with resources allegedly being diverted away from flood victims.
There’s a prevailing theme in voter discussions of political opportunism from political leaders, with the right accusing Biden and Harris and the left accusing Trump and DeSantis.
Democrats mostly argue the federal response is sufficient but complex, while Republicans point to the slow rollout of aid as evidence of the Biden administration's broader failures. Meanwhile, the people on the ground are left to sift through the wreckage.
Federal Response Failure
A small portion of discussions recognize FEMA working to mobilize resources and working to coordinate with state agencies. More also commend robust state responses by governors in Georgia and Florida, but these moments of efficiency are overshadowed by larger failures.
- 65% express frustration with federal and state officials, blaming the federal government for delays and local leadership for slow emergency declarations.
- 75% are angry about the apparent lack of aid and attention for hurricane victims compared to massive aid packages to Israel and Ukraine.
- And 90% of those discussing aid highlight $17.263 billion allocated to foreign military support, contrasted with Biden’s lackluster aid for American citizens at home.
Many Americans note the stark disparity in funding, emphasizing that while billions are sent abroad or spend on aid for illegal immigrants, the American people are left nearly without a thought.
Criticism toward the Biden-Harris administration dominates the discourse. People accuse the government of prioritizing political photo ops and foreign sympathy over Americans in crisis. The delayed involvement of military assets is also a source of anger. The XVIII Airborne Corps stationed just a few hundred miles away could have deployed critical resources to help with flooding relief, but instead, communities are left waiting for help.
The Political Fallout and Impact on 2024
Given the scale of Hurricane Helene's devastation, it is inevitable that the federal government's response will impact the upcoming 2024 election. With disillusionment and anger rising, the perception of a sluggish, inefficient response to the hurricane will likely fuel ire among voters.
According to MIG Reports analysis:
- 70% of voters say the government’s disaster response will influence their voting decisions in upcoming elections.
- 55% stress how hurricane aftermath and the dock worker strike will increase inflation costs and hamper recovery efforts.
- 70% say mainstream media fails to adequately cover significant events such as the port strike and hurricane aftermath.
Republicans both take the opportunity to get involved in recovery efforts and use this moment to highlight the administration's failures and rally voters. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden receive significant criticism for their lack of action and involvement—with Harris attending a fundraiser and Biden away from Washington.
REPORTER: "On the hurricane, why weren't you and VP Harris here in Washington commanding this this weekend?"
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 30, 2024
BIDEN: "I was commanding!"
(He was at his beach house and Kamala was fundraising in San Francisco) pic.twitter.com/3LmFI0KiRN
02
Oct
Analysis
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Billionaire businessman Mark Cuban went viral for saying inflation was not caused by "price gouging," defying the Democratic platform, for which he is known to act as a surrogate. He said on CNBC that unprecedented levels of government spending on things like the Inflation Reduction Act, for which Kamala Harris was the tie-breaker vote, are the true cause.
OMG. Mark Cuban accidentally admits the truth, says inflation was not caused by "price gouging," but rather record spending (which Kamala was the tie-breaking vote on.)
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 26, 2024
Kamala's top surrogate just blew up her entire economic message. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/HcwBLgYo6xMIG Reports data shows Democratic views of inflation in two categories:
- The seriousness of inflation
- How talking about inflation impacts their candidate
Discussion among Democrats is carefully crafted to maintain voter confidence and achieve electoral success. Rather than a straightforward engagement with the economic realities Americans face, inflation becomes a rhetorical tool used to shift blame, deflect responsibility, and bolster the Democratic Party’s campaign narrative.
In recent interviews, Harris herself has deflected from answering questions about the economy, price gouging, inflation, and how she plans to help Americans.
What does this even mean…?
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) September 25, 2024
Kamala Harris: "Well if you are... hard working... if you... have... uh... the dreams and the ambitions and the aspirations of what I believe you do, you're in my plan." pic.twitter.com/vgnZpe1EKuAmong Democrats:
- 40% blame Trump for the economy
- 25% acknowledge the negative state of inflation
- 19% express economic concerns
- 16% frame the economy as doing well
Glossing Over Inflation: A Strategic Approach
Democrats often acknowledge inflation, but the depth of that engagement varies. Many gloss over or reframed it as a problem inherited from the Trump administration. They frame the Biden-Harris administration as stabilizing the economy in the aftermath of Republican mismanagement.
By casting inflation as a residual effect of Trump’s policies, Democrats downplay the immediate economic concerns of Americans in favor of campaign messaging about aspirations and hope.
This approach is particularly evident in the way Democrats focus on government job reports, stock market gains, and a gradual decrease in gas prices. These elements distract from inflationary pressures, suggesting the current administration has things under control. However, Harris risks alienating voters who are directly impacted by rising costs of living, from groceries to housing.
Electoral Victory Over Economic Engagement
Many Democrats also prioritize winning the election over finding immediate economic solutions. Discussions show a focus on preventing a second Trump term rather than addressing the root causes of inflation for American voters.
Casting blame on Republicans reveals a defensive posture, with Democrats more concerned about economy narratives than offering actionable solutions. This allows them to use inflation as a talking point against Trump rather than as a policy issue in need of immediate attention.
The strategic deflection of blame reduces urgency and accountability to the American people. Instead, economic discussions are geared toward mobilizing voter sentiment, often simplifying complex financial realities into digestible, partisan soundbites. This reliance on political calculation places importance on a second Democratic administration over answering voter concerns.
Real Voter Concerns
While Democrats are clearly using inflation as a political tool, there are some expressing genuine concern about its impact on middle-class families. There is particular focus on housing and food costs for lower income Americans.
However, even these concerns are often accompanied by broader narratives of economic success under the Biden-Harris administration. By emphasizing solutions like tax credits or small business support, Democrats frame a positive electoral message rather than presenting them as pressing crises.
These trends create a dual narrative in Democratic discourse where some are forced to acknowledge the economic pain of voters, but quickly pivoting political messaging that downplays its severity. This tension between caring about economic realities and pursuing political success is a central feature of Democratic discussions on the economy.
Polarization and the Use of Blame
Partisan rhetoric drives Democratic conversations. By consistently blaming Trump, Democrats simplify the conversation, framing it as a political battle rather than a serious issue. This shifts voter attention away from current failures and pushes a narrative that a Harris administration would bring change.
This tactic, while effective in galvanizing the base, is also dismissive of the real economic challenges voters face. The risk here is that by leaning too heavily on partisan blame, Democrats may lose the opportunity to connect with voters.
30
Sep
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The ongoing discourse about Ukrainian President Zelensky’s perceived campaign against Donald Trump exposes partisan divides in the United States. As conversations unfold among voters from all political affiliations, tensions cause strong reactions to Zelensky’s actions, viewed through ideological lenses.
Many are discussing the apparent fervent support for President Zelensky among Democrats, hinting at a stronger alliance between Ukraine and a potential Harris administration.
Worth noting that Zelenskyy was flown to Pennsylvania on an U.S. Air Force C-17.
— Dan Caldwell 🇺🇸 (@dandcaldwell) September 23, 2024
The Biden-Harris admin is using military assets to fly a foreign leader into a battleground state in order to undermine their political opponents. https://t.co/OSebVUuBEg pic.twitter.com/biMGTfAc1JRepublicans
Zelensky’s actions are widely seen as foreign interference, fueling anger and reinforcing support for Trump. More than 60% of Republicans indicate their intention to vote for Trump, viewing Zelensky’s involvement with politicians as an attack on U.S. sovereignty.
Democrats
Zelensky’s opposition to Trump aligns with their criticisms of Trump’s foreign policy—especially regarding Ukraine and Russia. While this validates their stance and energizes some, Democrats were already largely opposed to Trump, making the impact on turnout less significant compared to Republicans.
Independents
More divided, Independents have varied criticisms. Some support Zelensky’s critique of Trump, while others worry about foreign influence in U.S. elections. Moderate enthusiasm is lower, with about a third considering voting for a third-party. This suggests frustration with the polarized political landscape.
Pennsylvania stands with Ukraine as they defend their homeland and fight for freedom. https://t.co/IaCpOtR1Ao
— Governor Josh Shapiro (@GovernorShapiro) September 23, 2024Across all voter groups, there is a growing sense of polarization, with partisan lines remaining entrenched. Discussions often highlight fears of foreign interference, causing a surge of nationalism, particularly among Republicans. These dynamics may or may not impact on voter behavior, with Republicans and Democrats rallying around their respective candidates while Independents increasingly withdraw from the political process.
Voter Discussion Analysis
Beyond surface-level reactions to Zelensky’s opposition against Trump, discourse shows further sociopolitical undercurrents shaping voter behavior in the United States. There is both a reaction to a foreign leader's involvement in American politics and broader existential concerns among the electorate.
Republicans
Zelensky's actions have become a proxy for wider anxieties about national sovereignty, globalism, and the perceived erosion of American exceptionalism. More than 60% of Republicans say Ukraine relations make them likely to turn out for Trump. This reflects the image of Trump as both a candidate and a symbol of resistance against external forces, both foreign and domestic.
Democrats
Zelensky’s critique of Trump serves as confirmation of Democrats’ existing narrative which frames Trump as damaging America's standing on the global stage. They believe he has weakened democratic alliances and emboldened autocratic regimes.
While Democrats are already motivated to oppose Trump, Zelensky’s involvement adds righteous moral dimension to their cause. They claim to vote for the preservation of democratic values under siege from authoritarianism—both within and outside the U.S.
Independents
The reaction among Independent voters is complex. Their ambivalence reflects a broader societal fatigue with the binary, hyper-polarized nature of American politics. Many Independents are skeptical of both sides, recognizing Zelensky’s actions as problematic but also viewing Trump’s foreign policy as flawed.
Internal conflict among Independents reveals disillusionment with Trump and Harris, but with also political system overall. Their disengagement is a response to Zelensky’s actions and a reflection of dissatisfaction with both political parties.
There is a sense that neither party adequately addresses the nuanced realities of global politics or the multifaceted concerns of American voters. Independents who say they plan to abstain or vote third-party highlight the withdrawal of many who view politics overly simplistic and manipulated by underlying agendas.
Snapshot of the Trajectory
More abstractly, Zelensky’s involvement in this election serves as a demonstration of national politics which can no longer be disentangled from global events. Voter reactions to Zelensky are not merely about Ukraine or Trump but part of a larger narrative about globalization, foreign interference, and the decline of traditional nation-state autonomy.
Both Republican and Democratic voters struggle with this reality. Republicans through a lens of protectionism and anti-globalism, Democrats through a framework of moral internationalism. Independents are caught in the middle, divided between their desire for nuanced political discourse and a binary political system.
There is also a sense of the mediated nature of public discourse, where social media acts as an echo chamber, amplifying existing biases and simplifying complex geopolitical issues. Confirmation bias, biased media, emotionally charged rhetoric, and eroded trust in traditional institutions all contribute to a tribal public dialogue.
The Zelensky versus Trump narrative does more than mobilize voters—it exposes the conflicted nature of American political cohesion and deepening divides between voters and institutions. This raises questions about the future of governance, the role of foreign influence in national narratives, and whether the U.S. is capable of engaging in complex global realities without further fracture.
26
Sep
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The stark division between partisan narratives and trust in the media has grown clearer in recent weeks. Previous MIG Reports analysis showed Democrats remain one of the few groups which consistently trust mainstream media.
With 64.8% of all voters expressing strong distrust toward mainstream media, the 24.9% who say they do have trust is largely composed of Democrats. This is consistent with 2023 Gallup data showing:
- 11% of Republicans trust media
- 29% of Independents trust media
- 58% of Democrats trust media
This divergence raises significant questions about how media narratives, especially those with a partisan slant, can shape voter opinion and electoral outcomes. Media narratives, which many Americans believe are biased toward Democratic viewpoints, disproportionately influence voters who still trust these outlets.
Whether Democrats continue to trust media narratives because of confirmation bias, or those who trust media lean Democratic because they are influenced by narratives is unclear. However, the correlation of Democrats trusting the media and media promoting Democratic narratives remains.
Through selective framing, coverage time, and emphasis, the media plays an active role in shaping political perspectives, often long after stories have been debunked or corrected. MIG Reports analysis shows three recent examples of media narratives shaping Democratic voter opinions on key political issues.
Hook Line and Sinker
Migrants Eating Pets in Ohio
Following the presidential debate, rumors of Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, dominated media coverage. Mainstream media, including ABC debate moderators who fact-checked Trump, largely positioned the story as unfounded or even fabricated.
Despite copious local resident allegations, certain police reports documenting missing pets, and the Springfield city manager acknowledging claims of pets being eaten, many Democratic voters still align with media narratives critical of the story and Republicans.
Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:
- Nearly 53 hours covering the Springfield city manager’s denial in the three days following the debate.
- Only 9.5 hours covering allegations of migrants eating cats.
There is a slight increase in mentions of the Springfield city manager after footage emerged from March of 2024 in which he acknowledged resident claims. However, these media mentions only total six hours compared to 23 hours the day after David Muir’s fact check against Trump during the debate.
MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:
- 80-90% Democrats still say pet consumption is unproven.
- 10-20% Democrats admit pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.
- 10-20% Republicans still say pet consumption is unproven.
- 80-90% Republicans believe pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.
The way media outlets frame the story—blaming Trump for “unproven allegations”—illustrates how media impacts perceptions. Democrats largely still dismiss the story as rumor, aligning with media talking points. Republicans, who largely distrust mainstream media, instead view the story—regardless of whether the pet consumption allegations are true—as an indictment of the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy.
The Danger of Bomb Threats
Following the media frenzy over pets in Ohio, narratives turned to bomb threats in Springfield. The media framed multiple bomb threats as a result of “dangerous” and “xenophobic” rhetoric by Trump and Republicans.
A viral clip of CNN’s Dana Bash shows her directly blaming J.D. Vance for drawing violence to Ohio through his allegedly divisive comments.
Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:
- 175 hours covering bomb threats in the last five days.
- 17 hours clarifying threats as a hoax after DeWine’s announcement.
Following Ohio Governor Mike DeWine’s announcement that the bomb threats were a hoax committed by foreign actors, media coverage continued to mention bomb threats for more than 100 hours while only mentioning them as a hoax for 17.3 total hours and a mere 17 minutes two days after the revelation.
MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:
- 60% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as real.
- 20% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.
- There is no quantifiable number of Republicans discussing the bomb threats as real, but 31% express concern about community safety.
- 70% of Republicans are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.
Again, biased coverage by mainstream outlets highlights how crafted narratives push slanted perspectives on voters who trust legacy reporting. This phenomenon is exacerbated by outlets spending far less time correcting falsehoods.
Democrats, a majority of whom still trust the media, show a greater tendency to internalize the mainstream narrative without scrutiny. Republicans, who largely distrust the media, are more likely to dismiss narratives which are proven biased by independent reporting.
Golf Course Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump
The second assassination attempt on Donald Trump triggered another wave of intense media coverage. While many Democrats expressed concern about the attempt, they strongly focus on linking the event to Trump’s divisive rhetoric.
Narrative battles again erupted as Republicans claim Democrats and the media are “victim blaming” Trump by saying his own language caused the assassination attempts. Fox News reporter Peter Doocy’s confrontation with White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre about how Democrats choose to discuss these events—continuously calling Trump a “threat”—demonstrates the partisan messaging clash.
Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:
- 818.5 hours covering the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in the three days following.
- 328 hours covering Trump and mentioning his “rhetoric.”
- 671 hours covering Trump and mentioning him as a “threat.”
- 96 hours covering Trump and mentioning “threat to democracy.”
- 2.8 hours covering the assassination and mentioning “Democrat rhetoric.”
Combined hours of coverage mentioning Trump with “rhetoric,” “threat,” and “threat to democracy” total 1,095 hours compared to coverage of the assassination alone and mentions of “Democrat rhetoric” at just more than 820 hours.
MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:
- 24% of Democrats are mentioning the assassination attempt.
- 60% of Democrats are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.
- 57% of Republicans are mentioning the assassination attempt.
- 21% of Republicans are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.
Once again, Democratic reactions suggest legacy media has strong influence over voter views with focus on Trump’s rhetoric rather than the assassination attempt itself. For Democrats, media framing reinforces pre-existing beliefs that Trump’s language incites violence. For Republicans, it further deepens distrust of both the media and Democrat credibility.
Media in the Tank for Democrats
Multiple data sources suggest the mainstream media’s framing of high-profile stories has a profound impact on the electorate—particularly Democrats who continue to trust these outlets. The disproportionate airtime given to narratives that align with Democratic viewpoints continues to foster anger and distrust among non-Democratic voters.
People use terms like “gaslighting,” “media bias,” and “we’re being lied to,” in discussions about how legacy outlets report on American political and cultural issues.
Increasingly, voters say they believe mainstream outlets attempt to control which stories gain traction and how long they remain in the spotlight. They suggest bias in favor of Democrats is intended to influence voter opinions and, ultimately, election outcomes.
However, given that Democratic voters compose the dwindling segment of Americans who consistently believe mainstream media narratives, some conclude the media’s influence and credibility is declining.
This is demonstrated by:
- Democrats often voting in alignment with issues amplified by the media, such as abortion, social justice, and government spending programs.
- Republicans repeatedly expressing distrust in media, driving them to seek alternative sources of information on platforms like X.
19
Sep
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Political discourse has intensified following the Trump versus Harris debate, with MIG Reports data showing Trump continuing to surge as Harris loses momentum. Stories like the infamous Springfield, Ohio incident, where rumors swirled about Haitian migrants allegedly consuming cats and dogs, served to further polarize partisan divides. Against a backdrop of ire toward the media and Democrats, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump also ignites passions on both sides.
- National sentiment toward Trump remains strong, maintaining at least a 5-point lead over Harris since the debate.
- Republican support across the electoral college remains tight, with Democrats gaining slight ground since the debate.
Media Frenzy and Voter Anger
After the debate, headlines fixated on Springfield and the media’s demonization of Trump. The controversial Haitian migrant story brought the media and Democrats’ integrity to the forefront with Republicans hammering the underlying issue of forced migration. Democrats, meanwhile, focused on claims of misinformation from Trump and J.D. Vance, which the media said foments xenophobia and fear, leading to reported bomb threats in Springfield.
JUST IN: Ohio governor says all 33 bomb threats against Springfield, Ohio have been hoaxes that are coming from overseas.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 16, 2024
Just another media-fueled hoax.
Governor Mike DeWine said the threats are coming from "one particular country."
"33 separate bomb threats, each one of… pic.twitter.com/JHXQqBOAEeOhio governor Mike DeWine’s confirmation that all 33 bomb threats in Springfield were hoaxes by foreign actors continued to stir anger from Trump supporters against the media and Democrats.
Next, Americans grew furious with the media after the second assassination attempt on Trump. Many fair-minded Americans—including former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo—express displeasure with rhetoric from Democrats and the media, who blame Trump’s own tone and language for the assassination attempt.
Watching Chris Cuomo get redpilled is absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/Ew1Dr0xj4W
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 17, 2024Democrats, represented by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre still refuse to change their language against Trump. Even when called out by reporters, Jean-Pierre doubled down on accusations against Republicans as dangerous.
KJP rages at Fox's @Pdoocy:
— Media Research Center (@theMRC) September 17, 2024
Doocy: "How many more assassination attempts on Donald Trump until the president, vice president, and you pick a different word other than threat?"
KJP: "I disagree with your question." pic.twitter.com/1YSMDwXqnSThe Big Picture: Kamala Craters
MIG Reports analysis of likely voter base turnout among Trump and Harris supporters paints a striking picture.
- 73.7% of Trump supporters express approval and intention to vote for him.
- 52.08% of Kamala Harris supports voice approval and intention to vote.
- This is compared to 72% likely turnout for Trump and 64% for Harris pre-debate.
This gap highlights the surging enthusiasm for Trump against a loss of enthusiasm for Harris. In addition, average sentiment in conversations about Trump and Harris shows 47% approval toward Trump versus 30% toward Harris.
Conversations Mentioning Trump
- 47% of voters nationally express approval toward Trump.
- 25.5% explicitly express opposition to Trump.
- 24.5% are undecided, though a portion of the group say they lean toward Trump.
Conversations Mentioning Harris
- 29.5% of voters nationally express approval toward Harris.
- 46% explicitly express opposition to Harris.
- 20.5% are undecided or unengaged.
These numbers illustrate why Trump, despite negative press, assassination attempts, and relentless Democratic criticism, continues to maintain a robust core of dedicated voters. By contrast, Harris struggles to consolidate even her own base, facing widespread skepticism and disengagement.
Swing States and the Battle for 2024
Swing states are critical to the outcome of the 2024 election, and data suggests Kamala Harris is losing ground in key battlegrounds. Despite a small sentiment bump in some MIG Reports data sets, voter conversations about Harris remain negative.
MIG Reports initiates analysis, weighing general sentiment embedded in conversations. Analysis incorporates negativity about the assassination attempt among MAGA voters in conversations mentioning Trump as well as negativity from Democrats about Trump's rhetoric. This suggests conversation analysis remains consistent with a picture of surging support for trump and falling support for Harris.
CBS News recently reported, in critical blue counties in Nevada, reporters were only about to find a single Harris supporter. These reports align with voter sentiment analysis online.
CBS IN NEVADA: “In every single restaurant, the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant and we left no stone unturned”
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 17, 2024
pic.twitter.com/RVA0PGOC7tSwing State Voter Sentiment
- Trump’s strong appeal to blue-collar and rural voters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, is driving much of his momentum.
- Harris struggles with perceptions of being "out of touch" with everyday Americans, an issue amplified by her progressive policies on immigration and the economy.
Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris
Kamala Harris
Support
- Social justice and equality: Supporters view Harris as a champion for marginalized groups, particularly on issues like healthcare and civil rights.
- Progressive policies: Voters value her commitment to addressing climate change and economic inequality.
- Leadership style: For some, Harris represents a strong, modern leader capable of navigating the complexities of global politics.
Opposition
- Economic concerns: Her policies on taxes and healthcare attract skepticism, especially from middle-class voters.
- Weak on immigration: Critics argue Harris has failed to secure the border, promoting open borders and forced migration.
- Character issues: There is a widespread belief that Harris lacks integrity, stemming from her policy flip-flops and public statements.
Donald Trump
Support
- Economic growth: Trump’s policies on taxes and deregulation appeal to a broad base who value economic stability.
- Border security: Voters express desire for Trump’s tough stance on immigration, securing the border, and deportation.
- Perception of strength: Despite controversial rhetoric, voters view Trump as someone who "gets things done" and stands up to political elites.
- Law enforcement: Americans like his strong emphasis on law and order.
Opposition
- Divisive rhetoric: Trump’s language on race, gender, and social issues alienates many undecided voters.
- Abortion: Many who oppose Trump cite his stance on abortion as a key factor.
- Concerns about temperament: Many raise questions about Trump's fitness for office, citing his demeanor as "unpresidential."
Where the Race Stands
Looking ahead, the data suggests Trump maintains a solid path to victory, with his core supporters holding strong and voicing enthusiasm for turning out. Harris faces the daunting task of both positioning herself against Trump but energizing a growing apathetic and divided Democratic base. Trump’s ability to rally voters—despite media opposition and political violence—will likely be pivotal in securing a win.
18
Sep
-
With less than two months until the presidential election, Donald Trump is gaining momentum against a Kamala Harris—who Democrats hoped would buoy the Party after Biden’s exit. MIG Reports data shows a tight race, with Trump’s base expressing high enthusiasm and Harris facing skepticism among her ostensible supporters. The first Trump versus Harris debate is tonight, which could shift sentiments further depending on how each candidate performs.
- Nationally, Trump is recovering from a brief Harris surge following the DNC.
- Prior to the debate on September 10, Trump shows 52% support to Harris’s 48%.
- Republican support across the electoral college is moving upward, with 49% today compared to 47% for Democrats.
The Big Picture
A MIG Reports weighted analysis of real-time voter conversations suggests voter base turnout for each candidate could be around:
- 64% turnout potential for Kamala Harris
- 72% turnout potential for Donald Trump
Currently, Trump appears to have stronger voter mobilization as enthusiasm for Harris wanes amid border and Israel-Palestine drama. This alone does not suggest who will win the election due to the complexity of the U.S. Electoral College system.
More importantly, swing states show Trump slightly ahead with a rising trend. These regions are crucial for a win and Trump's solid swing state support, along with the higher turnout potential, suggests he currently has a stronger path to victory.
Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris faces growing skepticism from her base over the economy, the border, and the U.S. position on Israel and Hamas. There are also some mentions of controversial endorsements from figures like Dick Cheney and Vladimir Putin.
JUST IN: Vladimir Putin says he supports Kamala Harris for president, says he finds her laugh “fascinating.”
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 5, 2024
The comments come after the DOJ accused Russia of funding Tenet who then paid conservative influencers for videos.
At the moment, it’s unclear what exactly Russia’s goal… pic.twitter.com/ciXyZ4MCyUThese issues are exacerbating a rift, particularly among progressive Democrats, who see her alignment with Israel and establishment figures as problematic. Recent Party defections from public figures like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Alan Dershowitz also signal the growing discontent among Democrats.
In voter conversations about Harris:
- 64% of Democratic voters express a willingness to vote for her.
- 33% vocally oppose her candidacy.
- 15% express concerns about certain endorsements and alignments.
Harris's platform on social justice, healthcare reform, and climate change still resonates with her core supporters. However, she is struggling to mobilize undecided or moderate voters, who have been skeptical of her leadership and competence.
Donald Trump
Meanwhile, Trump enjoys fierce loyalty from his base, who remain energized despite ongoing legal and media controversies. Trump’s supporters cite his stance on law and order, his previous administration’s economic performance, the economy, and frustration with the Biden-Harris administration as reasons for their continued support.
In voter conversations about Trump:
- 72% of Trump’s voter base is excited to turn out.
- 75% of voters highlight endorsements from those like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and law enforcement as motivators.
- 82% of positive sentiments use terms like "MAGA" and "support" when discussing Trump.
Our presidential endorsement process is thorough and inclusive, involving over 377,000 members across the nation. Today, it's a privilege to announce that the collective will of our members has led us to endorse Donald J. Trump for President. We're committed to supporting… pic.twitter.com/RGQbEzroX9
— National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) (@GLFOP) September 6, 2024Trump’s endorsements from groups like the Fraternal Order of Police have been pivotal in reinforcing his image as a law-and-order candidate. This has helped solidify his base, making voter turnout for him more likely.
- Sentiment toward each candidate in the last seven days is similar, though Trump gains significantly more mentions at 94,118 to Harris’s 42,049.
- Harris’s highest sentiment is for endorsements at 48% and her lowest is for ideologies at 42%.
- Trump’s highest sentiment is endorsements at 47% and his lowest is for allegations at 39%.
Battlegrounds Will Decide the Election
MIG Reports analysis shows a steady rise in Trump’s support both nationally and in key battlegrounds, where Harris is losing ground. The debate tonight could prove pivotal for both candidates as they aim to secure these critical electoral votes.
- In swing states, Trump leads Harris in swing states, with a 30-day average of 49% support to Harris’s 46% average.
- Third party support dropped following RFK Jr. removing himself and endorsing Trump—though Jill Stein has gained 4% support in the last few days.
Key swing state metrics:
- Trump’s support in swing states increased following the DNC from 42% to a high of 54% on August 25.
- Since then, his swing state support has evened out, averaging 49% in the last seven days.
- Harris’s support in swing states dropped following the DNC from 54% on August 21 to 45% on August 25.
- Her support also evened out, averaging 47% in the last 7 days.
- Support for third-party candidates in swing states averaged 4% in the last seven days.
Swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are critical for both candidates. Trump’s growing presence in these battleground areas puts Harris in a difficult position, as she will need to reverse this trend to secure enough electoral votes.
MIG Reports data also shows in swing states:
Donald Trump
- 70% support among white evangelicals
- 50% support from working-class voters
- 80% opposition from younger voters
- 75% opposition from urban voters
Kamala Harris
- 60-70% support among young progressive voters
- 75% opposition from older conservative voters
- 40% of comments support Harris
- 50% of comments criticize Harris
A National Base Support and Turnout
Voter turnout will be a decisive factor in the 2024 election, and Trump’s base shows higher levels of enthusiasm. Trump’s supporters are not only loyal but highly mobilized, while Harris struggles to generate the same level of enthusiasm—particularly among undecided and swing voters.
Trump’s base is solid, and his ability to maintain support from key voter groups, including working-class and rural voters, gives him an edge. Harris, meanwhile, must address the ambivalence within her base and secure a higher turnout from progressive and moderate voters.
Reasons for Voter Support
Each candidate’s voter base expresses various reasons for and against their party’s nominee. These issues will likely be important in the debate.
Kamala Harris
Reasons for supporting:
- Abortion: Democrats’ strong stance on women’s reproductive rights, especially positive among liberal and progressive voters.
- Diversity and equity: Her advocacy for an “equitable society” resonates with those who feel marginalized.
- Progressive policies: Harris endorses healthcare reform, climate action, and immigration reform.
- Representation and inclusivity: Many supporters highlight her historic role as a woman of color and her advocacy for social justice, particularly LGBTQ+ rights.
- Changing American values: Supporters see her policies as positively moving modern American values in a progressive direction.
Reasons for not supporting:
- Perceived incompetence and dishonesty: Critics label Harris as unqualified, ineffective, and politically dishonest, with concerns about her decision-making.
- Failed policies: Despite attempts to distance herself from the Biden administration, voters still associate her with failures in immigration, crime, and economic management.
- Out of touch: Many see her as part of the “liberal elite,” disconnected from ordinary concerns.
- Ideological opposition: Detractors criticize her for promoting a perceived socialist or communist agenda, which they view as a threat to American values.
Donald Trump
Reasons for supporting:
- Economic performance: Many attribute economic growth during his previous presidency to his leadership, expressing dissatisfaction with Harris’s economic policies.
- Immigration and national security: Trump’s strong stance on immigration control is seen as necessary for protecting American jobs and public safety.
- "America First" policies: Supporters admire his protectionist policies, particularly on tariffs and job preservation, viewing him as a defender of American sovereignty.
- Conservative values: Trump is often a symbol for conservative principles, especially among older and rural voters.
Reasons for not supporting:
- Moral concerns: Critics cite January 6th and his rhetoric as divisive and damaging to democratic norms.
- Perceived dishonesty: Many opponents believe Trump undermines public trust by perpetuating false narratives, especially around election integrity.
- Social issues: Younger voters and minority groups often oppose Trump over concerns about social justice, climate change, and abortion.
- Divisive leadership style: Many are concerned Trump’s approach fosters division rather than unity, especially his incendiary remarks.
10
Sep
-
Voter conversations regarding the upcoming presidential debate are turbulent. Trending topics, sentiments, and views of each candidate are all filtered through partisan lenses. MIG Reports analysis shows a calcifying electorate digging its heels into existing beliefs around:
- Economic stability
- Immigration control
- National security
Highest Volume Discussion Issues
The top issues consistently emerging in conversations among all voter groups are:
- Economic Issues: This is the most dominant topic within all groups including Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and general discussions. Inflation, taxes, and middle-class struggles are central themes.
- Security Issues: This includes concerns about national security and foreign policy, especially issues regarding Israel, Hamas, Russia, and terrorism.
- Housing Issues: Related to the economy, housing affordability is a major concern, particularly its impact on the middle class.
- Illegal Immigration: Strong concerns regarding border security, illegal immigration, and its economic impacts is pressing, especially among Republican voters. Immigration conversations often blend into economic and national security conversations.
- Ideological Divides: Americans are concerned about socialism/communism vs. freedom/liberty, especially between Republican and Democratic voters.
Sentiment in Top Discussions
- Economic Issues: Sentiment is negative with frustration over inflation, perceived government inaction, and concerns about taxation. There’s a longing for stronger economic leadership, especially a return to pre-inflationary stability.
- Security Issues: Highly polarized as Republicans express frustration with the weakness Biden and Harris, while Democrats remain divided on Israel. Despite polarized views, foreign threats from Russia and Hamas evoke negative sentiment in most conversations.
- Housing: Negative sentiment, particularly regarding affordability, with widespread frustration at the perceived lack of solutions from both parties.
- Immigration: Republicans express highly negative sentiments, associating immigration with economic strain and security concerns. Democrats focus on human rights and immigration reform, but many are still negative.
Sentiment by Party
Republican Voters
- Economy: Negative, focusing on rising inflation and taxes under Biden-Harris, with calls for returning to Trump-era policies.
- Security: Negative towards Biden-Harris, expressing a need for stronger action on terrorism, foreign policy, and immigration.
- Immigration: Highly negative, viewing illegal immigration as a national security risk and economic burden.
Democratic Voters
- Economy: Mixed, with some acknowledging struggles but maintaining faith in progressive economic solutions focused on tax equity and job creation.
- Security: More neutral on Biden-Harris policies generally with the exception of continued polarization around Israel and Hamas.
- Immigration: Largely positive, with calls for reform and protecting immigrants' rights.
Independent Voters
- Economy: Negative, centered on inflation and the economic impact of policies on the middle class.
- Security: Leaning negative, with concerns about foreign policy failures and national security.
- Immigration: Mixed, with some voicing concerns about immigration’s economic impact, while others are neutral.
Subjects Not Shared Between Voter Groups
- Housing and Immigration as Linked Concerns: Republicans and Independents view immigration as exacerbating the housing crisis, contributing to negative sentiments.
- Progressive Social Policies: Democratic voters focus on maintaining social safety nets like Medicare and Social Security, which does not feature prominently in Republican discussions.
- First Amendment Rights and Constitutional Concerns: GOP voters focus on protecting individual freedoms and constitutional rights, especially around gun control and free speech. Concern is less present among Democrats.
Candidate Support and Opposition
Donald Trump
- Republicans: Trump has strong support, especially around economic issues. A significant portion of Republican voters—about 65%— view him as the solution to economic problems, focusing on his legacy of low taxes and perceived economic stability under his administration.
- Independents: While not as unanimous as Republicans, many Independents also lean toward Trump, particularly when discussing national security and the economy. Many are dissatisfied with current economic conditions and associate them with Democratic leadership.
- Democrats: Trump is generally viewed negatively. There is a prevailing narrative that associates him with authoritarianism and economic inequality.
Kamala Harris
- Democrats: Harris has strong support in the base, especially for her stance on social justice issues and progressive policies. Democratic voters rally behind her for policies like tax reforms aimed at wealth distribution, protecting social safety nets, and addressing climate change. However, there are signs of skepticism about her ability to tackle more immediate issues like the economy and inflation.
- Independents: Harris is viewed with skepticism, especially on economic management. Many Independents criticize the Biden-Harris administration for inflation, which negatively impacts their support.
- Republicans: Harris is overwhelmingly opposed. She is often associated with "socialism" or "communism" and seen as a representative of policies that undermine individual freedoms.
Uncertainty About Candidates
Kamala Harris is the more questioned candidate across all voter groups. She faces scrutiny for:
- Economic Issues: Both Independents and Republicans express skepticism about her economic policies, with concerns over inflation, housing affordability, and taxation. Even some Democratic voters want more tangible plans for economic recovery, and some are openly opposed to her economic proposals.
- Foreign Policy and Security: There is widespread criticism toward Harris on national security—especially related to Russia and Hamas. Republicans view her foreign policy as weak, and Independents echo this sentiment. Progressive Democrats also regularly criticize her for failing to sufficiently support Palestine.
- Leadership Ability: Voters from multiple groups question her ability to lead effectively. There is a recurring theme that Harris may not be strong enough to counter foreign adversaries. Many express disappointment in her lack of decisive leadership.
- There is less uncertainty around Donald Trump since many feel they understand his leadership from his first term. Criticisms or questions are more ideologically driven:
- Democrats: Trump is criticized for his past policies, perceived authoritarian leanings, and for his social viewpoints. Democrats view his rhetoric and economic policies as favoring the wealthy at the expense of the middle and lower classes.
- Independents: Some Independents criticize his handling of the economy in his last term, linking some of today’s economic struggles to his policies. However, this criticism is less pronounced compared to Harris.
Voter Polarization
The electorate is highly polarized, with few overlapping issues between the voter groups. Each group is entrenched in its political ideology, making compromise or crossover support unlikely. This polarization reflects deep ideological divides, particularly around economic and social issues, suggesting a heated election cycle with little room for shifting opinions.
Issue Focus Over Candidate Popularity
Voters, especially Independents and moderate Republicans, seem more focused on issues rather than specific candidates. Economic struggles and security concerns dominate the discussion, with voters seeking clear, actionable solutions. This suggests the candidate who offers more concrete, practical plans may sway more undecided voters during a debate.
Emerging Topics for Debate
Security and Foreign Policy
Given the widespread focus on Russia, Hamas, and national security issues across all voter groups, voters will expect detailed foreign policy responses. Americans demand a clear stance on these issues, with a significant portion of discussions revolving around military strategy and international relationships.
Economic Stability
Voters are very unhappy and concerned over inflation, housing, and taxes. The economy will likely dominate discussions. Whichever candidate provides more tangible solutions that resonate with voters who are struggling with daily financial pressures will likely win in a debate.
Housing Crisis and Affordability
This is a cross-cutting issue among all voter groups, particularly Independents and younger voters. Housing affordability is likely to be a major talking point in the debates, especially given the clear dissatisfaction with current policies.
Potential Forecasts
Kamala Harris
Harris will likely face increasing pressure to offer clear solutions to economic issues. Economic dissatisfaction, especially around inflation and housing, may present a significant obstacle for her campaign.
Foreign policy debates will also be crucial, particularly addressing concerns over her perceived weakness in handling global adversaries and national security threats. Harris continues to face a difficult tightrope walk to avoid upsetting pro-Israel and pro-Palestine Democrats.
Donald Trump
Trump largely has support from voters who associate him with economic stability and security. However, he may need to address concerns about some 2020 policies and their long-term impacts. This is crucial for many Independents who are dissatisfied with both current and past administrations.
The MAGA base remains highly engaged and cohesive, particularly around issues of immigration and constitutional rights, which he will likely continue to leverage in debates.
Overall
Harris’s performance in addressing economic and foreign policy concerns will significantly impact her chances, especially among undecided voters. If she fails to provide concrete solutions in these areas, it could cost her support, particularly from Independents.
Trump’s message of returning to economic stability under his leadership may resonate with voters concerned about inflation and taxes. However, he may face pushback regarding his handling of past crises, particularly in foreign policy, if not addressed proactively.
09
Sep
-
MIG Reports analysis of conversations across social media assesses public support and acceptance for Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. An analysis of language and sentiment in these discussions shows distinct patterns in how supporters defend or affirm their preferred candidate. Detractors distance themselves through critical, often impersonal remarks.
Defensive language, first-person viewpoints, and emotionally charged rhetoric dominate the conversations. There is a dynamic of personal stakes and political identity throughout. This narrative analysis explores these dynamics in detail, breaking down the tendencies and language structures across a variety of subjects, from accusations of dishonesty to ideological alignment and economic concerns.
Weighted Analysis
- 60-75% of comments supporting Wals are defensive.
- 60-70% of discussion about Vance offers affirmative support.
The discourse around VP nominees Tim Walz and J.D. Vance shows patterns of defensive and affirmative language. Walz’s supporters primarily use defensive language to counter accusations about his military record and China ties. Walz critics often use third-person, detached language to accuse him of dishonesty.
Vance receives more affirmative support, particularly on economic policies and national security. However, his supporters also defend him on issues like abortion and his Trump ties. Critics frame him as disconnected from social issues using third-person language.
Tim Walz
Discourse supporting Tim Walz overwhelmingly uses defensive language. On multiple fronts, especially regarding his military service and alleged ties to China, Walz’s defenders work to counter accusations rather than promoting his accomplishments. These discussions often center around national security, where supporters emphasize his Congressional delegation to Afghanistan, attempting to clarify that he did not falsely present himself as a combat soldier.
The language here tends to use first-person pronouns, with individuals sharing their personal viewpoints and experiences in defense of Walz. This first-person usage highlights how closely voters identify with him, seeing attacks on Walz as attacks also on themselves. For example, phrases like "I believe in his service" or "My family supports Walz despite the lies" reveal emotional investment.
In contrast, the third-person language in critiques of Walz is impersonal and accusatory. His critics, particularly those aligned with J.D. Vance, refer to him through detached terms such as “Walz is a risk” or “His ties to China are alarming,” focusing on accusations of dishonesty and corruption without any emotional attachment to the discussion.
These accusations are most prominent in discussions about his alleged connection to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), where third-person critiques amplify concerns about national security and Walz’s potential vulnerabilities as a political figure.
J.D. Vance
Republican VP candidate J.D. Vance gains an affirmative form of support—particularly on economic policies and national security. Discussions about Vance often paint him as a staunch defender of conservative values, with supporters using affirmative language to highlight his positions on inflation, government spending, and housing affordability.
Vance’s supporters say his understanding of economic issues aligns with middle-class interests, with first-person language reinforcing a personal connection to his policies. Statements like "We need Vance to protect our economy" or "I believe his stance on taxes is right for families" are common. This reveals a collective rallying cry among his base. The first-person narrative underscores a deep sense of belonging and urgency within his supporters.
However, while affirmative comments dominate discussions about Vance, his supporters also employ defensive rhetoric. They respond to criticisms of his stance on abortion rights and his alignment with Donald Trump. In these discussions, supporters shield Vance from what they view as misrepresentations of his beliefs, using defensive terms like “misunderstood” or “defender of religious liberty.”
Defenses arise when critics accuse Vance of misogyny or frame him as out-of-touch on women’s rights. The language here oscillates between first-person, personal narratives that emphasize shared values, and third-person, detached critiques that highlight perceived shortcomings in his policies.
Emotional Attachment
A clear commonality between the discussions of both candidates is partisan divisiveness. Supporters of Walz and Vance often feel personally invested in defending their candidate. Whether discussing national security, economic issues, or personal integrity, voters express their opinions as though their own values and lives are at stake.
This deep emotional connection is particularly evident when discussing character attacks, with both Walz and Vance receiving strong support from their bases. The common tactic of defense and personal involvement permeates both sides, despite their opposing political ideologies.
Anomalies and Singular Subjects
China
Talk about China is a topic mostly isolated to Tim Walz. Unlike the other issues, where the conversation is a mix of defense and affirmation, the narrative about Walz’s ties to China is overwhelmingly defensive. Accusations of his supposed CCP connections dominate, and the defensive tone becomes more urgent and repetitive. Supporters try to combat what they perceive as a significant and persistent threat to his reputation. First-person language is especially pronounced here, as voters feel compelled to personally stand against accusations of foreign allegiance.
Abortion Rights
In contrast, while abortion rights feature heavily in the discussions about Vance, the responses here reflect a unique balance between defense and affirmation. Vance supporters often use affirmative language to celebrate his anti-abortion stance, describing him as a protector of religious and traditional values. However, when confronted with criticisms, they quickly shift to a defensive tone, using personal stories to justify conservative positions. This demonstrates a rare flexibility between the two types of language.
09
Sep
-
MIG Reports analysis of voter sentiment on jobs, the jobs market, and unemployment shows the likely impact on the upcoming general election in November. Online discussions around jobs are prominently influenced by political figures and policies.
Regaining Jobs Lost During COVID
Discussions about job creation dominate the conversation, highlighting contrasting viewpoints on the effectiveness of recent administrations. Voters talk about job creation, unemployment, Biden, and Trump. Many point out claims from both political parties regarding job growth and recovery, referencing statistics claiming millions of jobs were added post-COVID under the Biden administration.
Some voters believe these increases merely reflect a return to pre-pandemic employment levels. They attribute job losses to COVID measures, which were later regained. Suggestions about gaining back lost jobs account for 35% of the discussion, showing a sustained focus on the interpretation of employment trends. This sentiment is also supported by previous MIG Reports analysis on overall skepticism toward government job reports.
Sentiment Trends
Voter sentiment around job creation appears mixed. Many express optimism about reported job growth under the Biden administration. Others voice skepticism, often characterizing the reported figures as misleading or exaggerated.
- 57% express concern, criticism, or dissatisfaction regarding job numbers
- 43% indicate a belief in positive economic trends
People also discuss economic policies and their perceived effects on the job market. This includes discussions on corporate taxes, government spending, and their implications for employment. Discussions refer to "tax hikes," "corporate flight," "stimulus," and "inflation," suggesting discontent around Biden-Harris polices and proposals. This topic occupies about 28% of comments, with significant public engagement around Harris’s economic platform.
Sentiment around economic policy is negative:
- 62% express frustration or opposition to proposed tax increases or regulatory changes.
- 38% support Harris’s policies for long-term economic stability and job security.
Unemployment, particularly concerning historical rates and ongoing economic challenges, emerges as a prevalent discussion point.
Unemployment comprises 22% of discussion, with:
- 30% expressing optimism based on current lower unemployment rates
- 70% expressing anxiety over job security and the potential for recession
The Emotions of Politics
Emotion plays a huge role in how people engage with political and economic discussions. While economic conditions are critical in shaping opinions, voters do not always react in a rational or direct manner. Many times, people view the economy through a personal and emotional lens, filtering facts through personal experience and bias.
A prominent trend, however, is skepticism about data. Voters express suspicion about reported job numbers and inflation rates—this points to a growing distrust in institutions and leadership. American often turn to alternative narratives or confirmation biases that align with their pre-existing views.
General skepticism is part of a wider cultural trend where trust in traditional authorities like governments, media, and even data is declining. This causes people to become disillusioned or cynical. In this sense, emotion and skepticism feed into each other—people may feel betrayed by institutions, amplifying their skepticism.
Beyond emotions and economics, many are swayed by their political identity or broader social groupings. Discussions about Trump and Biden-Harris not focused solely on jobs—they reflect political identities. Many voters defend or attack economic policies based on whether they align with perceived values or party affiliations.
Holistic Understanding
MIG Reports analysis suggests many voters are often more moved by emotion and identity than pure economic circumstances. Economic impacts matter, but they are frequently filtered through personal feelings and ideological lenses. Someone struggling economically might still express support for policies or leaders they feel resonate with their values.
05
Sep
-
Recent state-level elections in Germany suggest a rise and momentum for nativist political parties—which some describe as “far right.” Some reports indicate Gen Z helped these political gains.
MIG Reports analysis shows Gen Z discussion patterns and language usage may reveal a traditional divide between how men and women engage with political and social issues. This distinction not only highlights differing communication styles but also underscores various ways younger men and women process and articulate their political views.
Bottom Line Up Front
Political sentiment among Gen Z voters in the U.S. is predominantly negative, with frustration and dissatisfaction in economic and security-related discussions. This may support a hypothesis that younger voters are more traditional and anti-establishment.
- Women’s language, though critical, often carries hope for change, contrasting with the more aggressive tone of men’s discussions.
- Women tend to use first-person language, reflecting a personal connection and blending personal experience with societal concerns, while men favor third-person language, focusing on broader societal critiques.
Potential Outcomes of Intergenerational Discord
Gen Z’s growing disillusionment with the political and economic establishment may drive them toward reactionary perspectives. Some talk of radical change rather than moderate conservatism. This shift could be fueled by a desire for strong, decisive action on issues like national sovereignty and immigration, reflecting a rejection of both progressive and centrist ideologies.
If the media and political elites fail to recognize this trend due to normalcy bias, they may misinterpret Gen Z’s anti-establishment sentiment as purely progressive. This would discount the rise of right-wing populism within the generation.
Severe misunderstanding could lead to significant political realignment, with Gen Z challenging traditional party structures and turning to alternative media sources that better align with their views. As a result, the establishment might face unexpected outcomes in elections and social movements—as demonstrated by some recent European elections.
Gender Trends
Women often use first-person language in discussion, with phrases like "I believe" and "I want." This personal engagement reflects their emotional investment in political outcomes, particularly in debates over socialism, free speech, and identity politics. Women often frame their arguments around personal beliefs and experiences, creating a narrative that emphasizes the individual’s role in the broader political landscape.
Men frequently use third-person language to discuss political ideologies. Their discussions often center on group identity and collective ideologies. Men use terms like "they believe" and "the party should" illustrating a focus on the broader societal implications of political choices. This language pattern reveals a tendency to engage with political ideologies from a more observational standpoint, critiquing the collective rather than emphasizing personal stakes.
Economic Issues
Women discussing the border express both their personal stakes in economic challenges and their broader concerns about societal impacts. They use phrases like "I’m struggling with rising costs" with discussions about the broader economy, inflation, and tax policies. They often connect personal experiences with broader economic trends, creating a narrative that resonates on both an individual and societal level.
Men show a stronger inclination towards first-person language in economic discussions, particularly when expressing frustration with current policies. Phrases like "I can’t afford this" and "Bidenomics is failing us" indicate a personal connection to the economic issues at hand.
Male discussions often reflect a deep skepticism toward government interventions, with a predominant focus on the failures of current economic policies. This personal engagement contrasts with their typical third-person narrative in other areas, revealing how economic pressures uniquely affect their political discourse.
Housing
Women express strong personal connection to the issue. They use first-person pronouns like "I" and "we," tying their personal experiences with housing affordability in society. Their discussions use empathy and concern for family and community to emphasize the seriousness of housing costs.
Men discuss housing with a more collective focus, using third-person language to critique government actions and policies. Their language reflects a broader societal concern, with discussions centering on the economic implications of housing policies and the perceived failures of political figures like Kamala Harris. This language pattern shows a more detached, critical viewpoint.
Border Security
Women use first-person language to express their personal experiences and emotional responses to immigration policies. Their discussions often center on the personal and familial impacts of border security, with phrases like "I fear for my family’s safety."
Men continue to favor third-person language, critiquing policies and focusing on societal implications. Discussions highlight the failures of the Biden-Harris administration, with an emphasis on stricter border controls and accountability. Men maintain a detached approach, framing their arguments around national security rather than personal impact.
Security Issues
Women use first-person language to connect their personal or familial experiences to broader security concerns, often discussing the human cost of war and the moral implications of U.S. foreign policy. Their language reflects personal investment, with themes of loss, accountability, and emotional engagement.
Men critique the political context, focusing on accountability at the leadership level. They assign blame for perceived security failures, emphasizing the roles of Biden and Harris. They focus on the external political landscape.
04
Sep