State of the Race: Trump Ahead in Support and Engagement

October 11, 2024 State of the Race: Trump Ahead in Support and Engagement  image

Key Takeaways

  • Less than a month from Election Day, Trump strengthens support and voter engagement.
  • 60-65% of voters voice positive opinions about Trump’s candidacy, while only 35-40% say they support Harris.
  • Trump supporters voice urgent personal investment, presenting him as a corrective force against Democratic failures.
  • Harris support appears more reactive and defensive, driven by opposition to Trump rather than enthusiasm for her leadership.

Our Methodology

Demographics

All Voters

Sample Size

250,000

Geographical Breakdown

National, Swing States

Time Period

7 Days

MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article. 

Less than 30 days from the election, voter discussions focus on the economy, border security, disaster response. The ideological divides between Harris and Trump drive voter disagreements, but Trump looks stronger on sentiment and voter engagement.

What Voters are Saying

  • 60-65% of voters voice positive opinions about Trump’s candidacy.
  • The GOP base uses affirmative language of personal commitment and agency.
  • 35-40% say they support Harris, with discussions driven by party loyalty and anti-Trump sentiment.
  • Feelings toward Harris are mixed, with critiques of her leadership often dominating discussions.

Trump

Affirmative and Personal Support

Trump's supporters use strong, first-person language like "I believe" and "I will vote," reflecting personal investment and a sense of urgency to restore national stability.

Voters view him as competent with economic policy and national security. These issues, along with immigration, drive voter support. Many say they hope he will be a corrective force against Biden-Harris failures over the last four years.

Opposition to Democrats

Some of Trump’s support comes from voters frustrated with Biden and Harris. They disapprove of how Democrats have handled certain crises like immigration, the economy, and natural disasters. Trump's leadership offers hope for a return to order, with voters frequently invoking themes of national pride and urgency for change.

Harris

Opposition to Trump

Voter support for Harris is largely reactive. Most of her backing comes from voters who oppose Trump rather than enthusiastically endorsing her policies. First-person affirmations are less common, and the overall tone is defensive. This suggests party loyalty and anti-Trump sentiment buoy her voting base.

Progressives and Mixed Sentiment

Left leaning progressive support Harris’s stance on healthcare, education, and abortion. But much of the overall conversation is critical. Negative sentiment—even among Democrats—focuses on immigration, critiques of her leadership, and disappointment with foreign policy and the economy.

Economic Issues

  • Economic dissatisfaction dominates voter conversations, mentioning inflation, high taxes, and rising costs of living.
  • Many voters say Biden-Harris policies have exacerbated these issues, comparing 2024 conditions to memories of Trump’s presidency.
  • Sentiment is negative, driven by frustration over stagnant wages and increased financial burdens.

Border Security

  • Border security and immigration remain highly contentious, generating strong dissatisfaction.
  • There is widespread anger at Biden and Harris for using FEMA funds in illegal immigrants instead of for federal disaster relief.
  • Anger about FEMA funds exacerbates frustration about the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants under Biden and Harris.
  • Demands for border security feeds into Trump’s "America First" messaging, reinforcing negative views of Democratic polices.

Disaster Response

  • The aftermath of Hurricane Helene is driving voter ire toward Harris.
  • Many voters feel the federal response has been nonexistent, with insufficient financial aid provided for Americans who lost everything.
  • This issue contributes significantly to the negative sentiment, worsening negativity toward Harris in the last few weeks of campaigning.

Ideological Divide

  • Americans continue to be polarized ideologically with strong national sentiments on the right, and globalist view on the left.
  • Trump supporters view Democrats as advancing radical leftist policies, often calling Harris a far-left progressive, a socialist, or a communist.
  • Divides are deep, with loyalty to worldview shaped as much by values as by policies.

Foreign Policy

  • Many on both sides of the aisle are worried about foreign policy—particularly in Ukraine and Israel.
  • Americans feel foreign conflicts divert attention and resources from domestic issues.
  • Negative sentiment ties into broader anxieties about national security and government priorities, with many favoring a return to Trump's foreign policy.
  • Segments of the Democratic base also object to Harris’s policy regarding Israel, accusing her of betraying progressive values by not calling for a ceasefire.

Housing

  • Housing affordability is also a pressing concern.
  • Voters criticize Democrats for prioritizing aid to immigrants over addressing rising costs for American families.
  • There is a strong sentiment that economic and housing conditions have worsened under Biden
  • People often say Trump’s presidency provided a more favorable quality of life for middle-class Americans.

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