The presidential election is two weeks out and social media discussions are heating up. This analysis examines the linguistic patterns and themes among Trump and Harris supporters. There are marked differences in tone, strategy, and overall engagement between the two political groups.

Trump Supporters

Confidence and Assertion

• GOP voters are expressing confidence, feeling momentum on Trump’s side.
• 70-75% use declarative, assertive statements, projecting certainty in his victory.
• Phrases such as “We’re taking back America” and “Trump has the majority, just watch” demonstrate their belief in a preordained victory.
• Language reflects a sense of control, citing facts like polling numbers or endorsements to back voter assertions.
• Republicans tend to see themselves as part of an unstoppable movement.

Affirmative Language

• Trump supporters predominantly adopt an affirmative stance.
• 70-80% use positive declarations of Trump’s accomplishments and potential.
• Statements like “Make America Great Again” and “We’re winning this for sure” illustrate a proactive approach to political engagement.
• Rather than addressing the opposition directly, these supporters focus on reinforcing their own narrative of strength and inevitability.
• They often sidestep negative commentary on Harris, choosing instead to concentrate on celebrating Trump’s achievements.

Collective and Detached

• There is a preference for third-person usage among Trump supporters.
• 60-75% of their language focuses on external validation of Trump’s achievements or references to larger groups, such as unions or law enforcement backing.
• For instance, phrases like “The National Border Patrol Council supports Trump” or “Look at the economy under Trump” emphasize collective achievements.
• This language serves to distance the conversation from personal sentiment, creating a sense of communal effort and shared purpose among supporters.

High Excitement

• 75-85% of Trump voters express exuberance and energy.
• Their language is filled with exclamations, capitalizations, and enthusiastic hashtags such as “#Trump2024” and “We’re winning!”
• There is enthusiasm and emotional investment in the campaign’s success.
• Their discussions often mention the excitement of attending rallies or participating in political action, further reinforcing a shared sense of purpose.

Harris Supporters

Defensive and Cautious

• Harris supporters express a more defensive and cautious tone.
• Language reflects frustration with both the opposition and their own camp, as they counter criticisms while praising Harris’s competence.
• 30-35% speak with confidence, but the majority oscillate between defensive and speculative statements.
• Phrases like “Harris will win if people see her vision” or “She’s the only one who can fix this” suggest a need to convince others rather than proclaim victory.
• This reactive posture creates an undercurrent of uncertainty and frustration.

Defensive Language

• 60-65% of Harris supporters tend to react defensively.
• Their comments often defend against criticism and deflect blame to Trump.
• People say things like “She’s done more for healthcare than Trump ever did” and “Trump supporters are just blind to the facts.”
• While there is engagement, confidence is lower, as much of the discourse is reactionary rather than assertive.
• These supporters seem focused on fending off attacks rather than crafting a clear affirmative case for Harris.

Personal and Emotional

• Harris supporters tend to use first-person language more frequently.
• 65-80% of their comments focused on personal experiences or emotional connections.
• Phrases like “I believe Harris is fighting for us” or “We need someone who understands our struggles” are emotionally charged and defensive.
• Personal engagement underscores the emotional investment in the campaign.
• Voters anchor their arguments in personal beliefs rather than collective narratives.

Moderated Enthusiasm

• 40-50% of Democratic voters express high enthusiasm.
• While there is urgency in their language, it often centers on warnings or calls to action against Trump.
• They say things like, “We need to stop Trump” or “Make your voting plan now.”
• The cautious, urgent tone, sounds driven by fear of Trump’s return to power rather than excitement for Harris’s platform.
• The enthusiasm among Harris’s base is subdued, reflecting both concern and the pressing need for political action rather than celebration.

Silent Majority and Subtle Dismissals

Trump Supporters

• One of the defining characteristics of Republican voter language is the quiet, almost dismissive way they address opposing arguments.
• They often ignore or subtly dismiss Harris supporter critiques without engaging in direct confrontation.
• Statements like “Everyone knows the truth” or “People will see through the lies” demonstrate a quiet confidence among Trump supporters.
• This dismissiveness conveys that they believe victory is assured, and engaging directly with opposition claims is unnecessary.

Harris Supporters

• Democratic voters engage more directly with Trump’s base but often do so with a cautious tone.
• While they push back against Trump’s rhetoric, their responses often lack the same level of confidence.
• Their subtle dismissals are frequently tinged with anxiety, as reflected in statements like “Trump is all talk” or “His supporters won’t listen to reason.”
• These comments demonstrate a desire to counter opposition arguments, but with a level of timidity, fear of confrontation, or doubt in their own position.

Kamala Harris's interview with Bret Baier on Fox News is generating many questions about her electability and how various demographic groups are responding. The conversation, which trended on Twitter as “Train Wreck,” revolves around issues of accountability, immigration, and leadership.

The Kamala Harris campaign officially ended tonight.

Someone told her “over talking” the interviewer in that annoying Cali wine-mom voice would be appealing to men in the rust belt. They lied.

Don’t blame Bret Baier. Kamala did this to herself. pic.twitter.com/C2nsWCWr28

— Free (@KaladinFree) October 16, 2024

Harris's performance is mostly viewed negatively, with defense coming mostly from vehemently partisan Democrats. People criticize how she’s handled immigration, the economy, and crime. Voters describe her as evasive, condescending, and untrustworthy.

While the mainstream press and her supporters argue Harris exhibited resilience in a “testy” interview, the overall sentiment is heavily negative. Viewers believe she failed to offer substantive explanations or take responsibility for the current administration’s actions.

• 60% of voters reacted negative to the interview
• 25% reacted positively
• 15% expressed neutral reactions

The Freefall Continues

The interview appears to have harmed Harris's electability. Voters perceive her inability to clearly answer questions or demonstrate knowledge and accountability as a major weakness.

Critics point out that Harris overly relies on blaming Trump instead of addressing her administration's shortcomings. This narrative weakens her appeal with undecided voters who want strong leadership and tangible solutions. Skepticism about her leadership and frustrations about the Biden-Harris administration's failures seriously damages her image.

Many also reacted with memes, making fun of Harris’s demeanor, deflection, and lack of clarity. People pointed out her unlikable persona and her constant references to Trump as evidence of her popularity freefall.

Kamala's interview on Fox mentioned Trump dozens of times. It was her chance to stop lying and say,"I'm sorry, reversing Trump's border policies was a mistake, and I'll reinstate them if I win." But no... She never answered any questions and just kept mentioning Trump. #Trump2024 pic.twitter.com/BSbJH9M4SF

— Solesky Melchizedek (@SoleskyRolando) October 17, 2024

Voter Group Reactions

• Conservatives overwhelmingly reacted negatively, with many focusing on Harris’s failures to manage immigration and crime.
• Black voters are split, with some expressing disappointment in her record as a prosecutor and others maintaining support.
• Gender also plays a role as some critics trivialize her abilities, criticizing her representation of women in leadership.
• Working-class and suburban voters voice concerns about economic instability and crime, expressing anxiety about current Harris policies as sitting VP.

The interview places a magnifying glass on significant challenges for the Harris campaign in maintaining voter support and turnout. The widespread negative reactions, particularly from Independents, along with the mixed response from black voters and the working-class suggest her pathway to victory is growing narrower and more fraught.

Between Oct. 9-16, Aurora, Colorado, became a hotspot for intense political activity and discussion following Trump’s rally in the city. Residents are grappling with a whirlwind of emotions—anxiety, enthusiasm, and distrust—all of which are influencing their civic engagement and voting propensity.

LIVE: Trump Rally in Aurora, #Colorado https://t.co/8lIYs46lxh

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2024

Aurora has become a pillar example in immigration discussions, with reports of Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes and committing crimes.

MIG Reports data shows discussions among Colorado voters show:

• Trump’s highest sentiment in CO is for rallies, immigration, and housing.
• Harris’s highest sentiment in CO is for endorsements and housing.

Growing Enthusiasm to Vote

A striking element in Aurora’s political landscape is heightened voter enthusiasm. People across the political spectrum voice their intention to vote with renewed energy and urgency.

Trump Voters

Republican voters are fiercely committed to voting. They are frustrated with Biden and Harris, voicing dissatisfaction with their view of poor leadership and terrible results for the country. Many believe four more years of similar governance would hurt and possibly destroy the country.

This group says things like, "We can't handle four more years with no leadership," suggesting they believe both Biden and Harris are placeholders for the establishment. They urgently want a return to strong, decisive governance. Trump’s anti-establishment appeal and promises to "drain the swamp" further solidify their motivation to vote for him.

Kamala Voters

Opposition to Trump is equally passionate. Anti-Trump voters express a burning desire to keep him out of office, rallying around Democratic Kamala Harris. This group calls for a united effort to mobilize voters, seeing the election as a crucial opportunity to push back against dangerous, authoritarian tendencies they perceive in Trump.

Most of Harris’s support stems from hostility to Trump rather than support for her leadership. They say things like, “We must get out and vote for Harris,” emphasizing the importance of keeping Trump out of office. There is a sense of urgency on both sides to ensure their candidate prevails.

Cultural and Political Forces

Trump supporters view him as a defender against a corrupt political system. They see his criticisms of mainstream media, educational institutions, and political elites as evidence of his willingness to speak the truth, unafraid of the backlash from the establishment.

Supporters see Trump as a champion for those who feel alienated or left behind by traditional politics. They position him as the only figure capable of disrupting a system they believe is rigged against them.

This anti-establishment rhetoric resonates with many voters in Aurora and across Colorado. They believe the institutions they once trusted have turned against them, with some describing the Democratic party as "the radical left" which has been taken over by an oligarchy of elites. Trump's defiance strengthens their support as he represents a bulwark against creeping authoritarianism from the left.

Anti-Trump voices in Aurora see him as embodying chaos and unpredictability. They denounce Trump as divisive and authoritarian. There is particular concern about his policies on immigration and crime, which they say exacerbate tensions and endanger public safety.

Democratic voters see voting for Harris as a political choice but also a moral imperative. They hope to restore accountability and decency in public leadership, which they believe Trump has undermined.

The sharp contrast between these two perspectives highlights the cultural divides in Aurora and across the country. As in national constituencies, voters are torn between competing visions of the future, each rooted in a belief that the election will either save or destroy the nation.

Anti-Establishment Sentiment Across the Board

Despite the stark differences in political allegiance, both sides voice anti-establishment sentiments. Whether pro-Trump or anti-Trump, many in Aurora share a profound distrust in traditional political authorities, media outlets, and even government institutions.

Trump supporters are frustrated by their belief in treason or deceit by establishment political figures. They view the political class as conspiring to maintain power at the expense of citizens. Republicans are deeply skeptical of the media, which they believe misrepresents the truth to undermine Trump’s credibility.

Anti-Trump voices also express frustration with the establishment, but their anger is directed at the Republican Party and its leadership. They believe Trump has hijacked the party, turning it into a vehicle for his personal ambitions rather ensuring responsible governance.

Shared skepticism of establishment politics reflects a broader disillusionment with American politics, suggesting many in Colorado, regardless of political leaning, are united in their desire for political reform.

Recent anti-Trump conversations online show opposition to Trump's policies and personality but also a paradoxical hope among some for his re-election. This sentiment stems from a belief that a second Trump term could catalyze activism and protest. The dialogues reflect discontent with current Democratic leadership, as well as emerging patterns from younger, more diverse demographics.

In anti-Trump discussions, MIG Reports data shows:

• 30% discuss political identity
• 25% discuss protest and political activism
• 25% discuss economic issues
• 20% discuss civil liberties

Trump as a Catalyst for Protest

A recurring theme in anti-Trump conversations is the desire for Trump to win, not as an endorsement of his policies, but as an opportunity to mobilize protest movements. Certain anti-Trump factions say his presidency would create adversarial conditions for grassroots activism or hijacking corporate-fed movements which raged in 2020.

This group often uses language hinting at preparations for confrontation, with phrases like “prepare for protests” signaling a willingness to endure Trump’s policies for the sake of galvanizing opposition. This attitude is particularly prominent among younger progressives, who perceive a Trump victory as defining their political identity through resistance.

The notion that only an antagonist like Trump can spur movements reach their full potential has taken hold in various groups. Such views echo past reactions, such as the women's marches after Trump’s initial inauguration, where resistance served as a central theme in political engagement.

Minorities and Young Voters are Leaning Trump

There is also growing involvement among younger voters and diverse communities, especially Latino and African American populations. These groups are increasingly dissatisfied with both Trump and the Biden-Harris leadership. However, some younger Latino men shifted slightly towards Trump, citing economic concerns and stability they feel Democrats have failed to provide.

This demographic shift represents a significant divergence from traditional political loyalties. Younger voters, particularly those from minority communities, are vocalizing their frustration with what they perceive as the hypocrisy of establishment politicians. These voters are resistant to both Trump and the Democratic Party’s inability to address their economic and cultural concerns.

Generational Tensions

In addition to demographic diversity, there are also generational tensions. Older generations often frame the current political struggle through historical analogs like 1930s Germany). They mention the rise of authoritarian regimes and similar patterns in modern America.

Younger voters focus more on present-day concerns like identity politics and social justice. This generational divide reveals how different groups engage with the political system and respond to anti-Trump sentiments in various ways.

Strategic Forecast and Predictive Analysis

The ongoing discourse suggests if Trump wins a second presidency, his candidacy could reignite the forces propelling his opponents into action during his first term. Narratives also suggest dissatisfaction with both major parties could lead to more fragmented voting patterns, particularly in battleground states. If this happens, it could continue a trend of using social movements to gain political power rather than voting efforts.

A growing sense of disillusionment with systemic governance permeates discussions, with voters increasingly rallying around issues of civil liberties, economic justice, and identity politics. The dialogues imply that Trump’s candidacy could serve as a unifying force for these groups, albeit through their shared opposition to his policies.

Impact on Electoral Dynamics

If ideological movements continue to mobilize activists, it may lead to significant shifts in the traditional electoral map. States that have historically leaned conservative may see increased competition from progressive candidates, particularly those who resonate with the cultural and economic concerns of younger voters. The rise in political engagement, coupled with a heightened focus on grassroots movements, could potentially reshape the strategic priorities of both political parties in the future.

Quantitative Insights

While the primary analysis is qualitative, some quantitative patterns emerge:

• Protest Mobilization: 40-60% of anti-Trump discussions reflect a desire for activism and protest if Trump wins.
• Demographic Shifts: 25-35% of the anti-Trump discourse is driven by younger voters, emphasizing their growing influence in political discussions.
• Civil Liberties Concerns: Roughly 20% express concerns about authoritarianism, particularly focusing on civil liberties under both Trump and Harris.

Anti-Trump sentiments reveal a complex and evolving political landscape. Americans who oppose Trump’s policies also want to use his presidency as a touchstone for political activism. Trends suggest a growing mobilization among voters, particularly those eager to challenge the political status quo.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s released an "Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” drawing a swift ratio from X users reacting with incredulity. Less than 24 hours after posting the proposal, it had 23 million views, 35,000 replies, and only 28,000 likes.

Black men deserve a president who cares about making their lives better. pic.twitter.com/cUCdsvvYZ6

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 15, 2024

In the proposal, Harris promises to:

• Give black men “fully forgivable” $20k loans.
• Provide “pathways to become teachers.”
• Protect the cryptocurrency investments of black men.
• Create a “national health initiative.”
• Legalize marijuana.

Most voters react to the proposal as racial pandering and empty promises, further damaging Harris’s image with the very group she’s attempting to court.

• 67% of voters distrust Harris's motives, calling the agenda empty pandering.
• 38% specifically criticize race-based crypto protections.
• 60% of non-black voters say Harris should focus on fixing her immigration policies before pandering to black men.
• 15% are cautiously optimistic but demanding more transparency.

Following Harris debuting the Opportunity Agenda, voter sentiment toward her dropped noticeably.

• Harris’s overall sentiment in the last seven days averaged 43%, dropping to 42% today.
• Specifically, sentiment on the economy dropped from 43% a week ago to 41% today and racial issues dropped from a high of 45% in the last week to a drastic 34% today.

Disingenuous Racial Politics

During the 2024 campaign season, Harris has been known for either remaining vague on her policy positions, piggybacking on Trump-Vance proposals like “No Tax on Tips” and child tax credits, or pandering with grandiose promises.

Harris’s Opportunity Agenda fits into this pattern, promising forgivable loans to black entrepreneurs and cryptocurrency protections specifically for black men. These, many say, are both incredible racial pandering and potentially illegal.

Around 67% of voters reacting are skeptical about Harris’s motivations with the proposal—this is supported by the glaring ratio on her rollout post. People point to her record as California's Attorney General, where she failed to deliver on promises related to criminal justice reform and economic empowerment. Many black voters echo sentiments like, "You are only 'supporting' Black men because you need votes."

The proposal also gained a slew of memes, mocking what many view as disingenuous and infantilizing promises to black voters.

😭😭 pic.twitter.com/SSKFTIftxC

— AtBrightone 📈 🐢 (@Atbrightone) October 15, 2024

Harris Finally Gets Specific on Policy, Too Specific

The proposal to forgive loans for black entrepreneurs and regulate cryptocurrency markets are particular points of ire for many online. Nearly 40% of those discussing the proposal specifically mention their criticism for race-specific provisions in cryptocurrency. And even more are reacting to race-restricted forgivable loans.

pic.twitter.com/B8H3xa7G8g

— The Right To Bear Memes (@grandoldmemes) October 15, 2024

Many voters view this proposal as part of a broader trend in the Democratic Party of focusing on specific groups rather than addressing the needs of nation holistically. Critics view these promises as merely symbolic, with little bearing on the real economic struggles black men, and all Americans, face.

Conservatives also argue Harris’s focus on niche financial reforms—like protections for black men in cryptocurrency —swings too far in the opposite direction from her typical evasion when asked about policy specifics.

People say things like, "Why is crypto suddenly a priority for black men when inflation is through the roof?" Voters express frustration that Biden-Harris policies have created the economic situation and skyrocketing inflation that Americans find themselves in. They view meager promises like “protecting crypto” as completely meaningless amid looming economic strain.

Legal Concerns and Unconstitutionality

The loudest outcry against the Opportunity Agenda is against forgivable loans for black entrepreneurs, which raises legal concerns about discrimination and the Constitution. Thousands of voters push back, suggesting racial policies like these probably violate anti-discrimination laws or violate the Constitution.

Also unconstitutional https://t.co/O7q6irT2UT

— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) October 15, 2024

While Harris and her supporters argue targeted programs are necessary to correct racial injustice, most Americans, including some black voters, say Harris wants to undermine equality under the law. Many point out that implementing such a racial policy would likely open up a Harris-Walz administration to lawsuits and harsh public backlash.

Immigration Overshadows Opportunity

In response to the Opportunity Agenda, many people bring up Harris’s broader track record—particularly on immigration. As the Biden administration’s "border czar," Harris faces fierce criticism for allowing an unchecked stream of illegal immigrants, including gangs, murderers, and rapists into the country.

Around 60% of non-black voters are angry about Harris’s lack of urgency over the border. They say the influx of illegal immigrants which strains American communities like Aurora, CO and Springfield, MI are more damaging to black communities than the problems which the Opportunity Agenda would attempt to solve.

Voters are frustrated that Harris is focusing on race-specific economic initiatives while neglecting critical national concerns like border security. They say her failures undermine any credibility she may have in addressing the economic challenges facing black men.

"Mass immigration does not contribute to the dreams and aspirations of Black Americans," one comment states, condemning Harris for making future promises while failing to solve current problems within her control as the sitting Vice President.

The Hollow Promises of the Democratic Party

Voters view Harris’s Opportunity Agenda as just the latest disposable promise made by Democrats to the black community—most of which go unfulfilled. A dramatic 67% of voters doubt Harris’s ability to deliver, questioning her sincerity. Black voters particularly are weary of politicians making grand promises during election cycles but reneging once in office.

This growing disillusionment among black voters is consistent with recent MIG Reports analysis showing Trump gaining with minorities. These voters are beginning to view Harris’s policies as token gestures rather than meaningful reforms.

In the first day after debuting the plan, Harris’s Opportunity Agenda has decisively been shot down by voters who question her authenticity and competence. Legal concerns about discrimination, continued disapproval about identity politics, and her administration’s failures on economic and immigration issues all suggest Harris is failing to make inroads with any American men.

Male voters are becoming a critical group to shore up in the presidential election, as Democrats make overtures and men react. Obama speaking out and a male-targeted Harris ad seem to do little to sway men, while J.D. Vance speaks directly to them about workforce reintegration and border security.

Vance’s Appeal to Working American Men

With male voters becoming a decisive demographic in 2024, J.D. Vance’s comments on immigration, workforce reintegration, and his deft confrontations with the media are appealing to his peers. Despite Democrats’ best efforts, the campaign’s actions suggest desperation at cratering support from American men.

Tampon Tim just can't figure out why male voters prefer President Trump and JD Vance over him and Kamala: "I refuse to admit that that's real."

😂🤣 pic.twitter.com/8XKlDXaR3Z

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 14, 2024

• 76% of male voters agree with Vance on border security, reacting positively to his media appearances.
• 57% voice skepticism toward Democratic outreach efforts.
• 22% view Democratic overtures positively.

In the last 30 days, J.D. Vance has improved his appeal with voters, performing well in the vice-presidential debate and reinforcing his image with prolific media appearances. A month ago, average sentiment toward Vance was 42%, while today it’s close to 50%. Meanwhile, Tim Walz faces a decline in sentiment, hovering around 46% a month ago but dropping to 44% today.

J.D. Vance Takes Down Left-Wing Media

Despite significant critical media coverage and hardball interviews, J.D. Vance is increasing his sentiment with American voters—especially men. His recent comments on immigration and economic nationalism during recent interviews resonate deeply with male voters, particularly those disillusioned by the American economy and job market.

During his interview with The New York Times, Vance explained his views on deporting illegal immigrants and reengaging American men in the workforce, particularly in construction and other blue-collar jobs. Many voters responded positively, appreciating his articulate counter-narrative to popular Democratic messaging of sympathy for immigrants.

NYT reporter Lulu Garcia-Navarro sits in silence as JD Vance educates her on the labor force participation rate relating to illegal immigration.

Garcia-Navarro tried arguing that illegal immigrants can't be deported because America needs them for jobs.

She pointed to the… pic.twitter.com/SiNwyldSwR

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 12, 2024

Male Voter Reactions:

• 64% of men support Vance’s policies on workforce reintegration and immigration.
• 28% express skepticism, viewing his policies as oversimplifications of complex labor dynamics.

Vance's tough stance, especially on construction jobs, earns him praise from blue-collar voters. His comments that American men could fill labor gaps if immigrants were deported plays positively with that group. Around 70% of male voters agree with Vance’s immigration approach, seeing it as a necessary step to reclaim job opportunities for native-born workers.

Only 25% raise questions around the feasibility of these plans. They suggest many American men are unwilling to take on lower-wage, physically demanding jobs, which are often filled by immigrants.

• Overall, Vance’s approval in the last week has remained steady, with a slight uptick on jobs, housing, and border security.

"Only a Handful” of Venezuelan Gangs

Vance’s discussion with Martha Raddatz on ABC News further elicited conversation around immigration and crime. Raddatz downplayed reports that Venezuelan gangs have taken over apartment complexes in Aurora, Colorado, sparking a firestorm of backlash from voters.

Raddatz: "The incidents were limited to a handful of apartment complexes... A handful!"@JDVance: "Do you hear yourself? Only a handful of apartment complexes were taken over by Venezuelan gangs and Donald Trump is the problem and not Kamala Harris' open border?"

🔥 pic.twitter.com/VY4Ai35YJk

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 13, 2024

Those who believe the media routinely downplays crime associated with illegal immigration are rallying behind Vance, who criticized the way Raddatz framed the issue. Critics, though fewer, accuse him of stoking xenophobic fears to gain political traction.

MIG Reports Analysis

• 76% of male voters agree with Vance’s position on border security, expressing concern that illegal immigration is exacerbating crime.
• 84% distrust mainstream media outlets, which they accuse of downplaying these issues to support Democratic policies.
• 57% of male voters remain skeptical of Democratic outreach efforts.

Raddatz attempted to dismiss Vance’s concerns saying only “a handful” of apartment complexes are plagued by migrant gangs. Male voters in particular express outrage, with many reiterating that any level of crime linked to illegal immigration is unacceptable. The sentiment of “Make America Safe Again” routinely appears in these discussions, further aligning Vance’s policies with a growing base who feel ignored by media and the left.

Democrats Panic About Male Voters

Democrats, meanwhile, show signs of panic over men drifting away from their platform. Recently, multiple efforts have been rolled out aimed at engaging this demographic. Unfortunately, the results have been underwhelming.

Obama’s Comments to Black Men

Former President Obama addressed black men directly, urging them to support the Democratic ticket, particularly Kamala Harris. But this message has largely fallen flat. More men are voicing their views that Democratic policies are out of touch with their economic and security concerns.

Black men seem to have taken to TikTok to slam Obama for his remarks last night. pic.twitter.com/zGtD0AMEcp

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) October 12, 2024

Harris Campaign Ad

The Harris campaign also released an ad targeting men, attempting to redefine what it means to be “man enough.” Unfortunately, only 22% of male voters responded positively. Many reactions criticized the ad, claiming it failed in its attempt to resonate with male identity. Men cite a lack of authenticity in the messaging, perceiving it as a failure to understand their priorities.

I present to you the cringiest political ad ever created. pic.twitter.com/P0JMI1caNS

— Champagne Joshi (@JoshWalkos) October 11, 2024

Tim Walz’s Hunting Photo Op

Next, the campaign trotted out VP candidate Tim Walz, attempting to court rural and working-class male voters. The staged hunting-themed photo op generated a tidal of memes about Walz, whose proficiency with a gun came across as lacking. Around 60% of voters describe the event as insincere and staged. The photo op drew comparisons to John Kerry’s infamous hunting stunt during the 2004 election, which also failed to resonate.

Tampon was REALLY struggling today pic.twitter.com/KG3zQfAKOJ

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 12, 2024

Discussions responding to betting market odd of a Harris versus Trump presidential win, show Trump ahead. Social media discourse reveals both preferences for candidates and key concerns driving voter motivations.

Kamala Harris just agreed to a Fox News interview this week

Meanwhile Trump's lead on Kalshi continues to expand

🔴Donald Trump 53%
🔵Kamala Harris 47% pic.twitter.com/ecEECyS2Pz

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 14, 2024

Analysis of reactions to betting market predictions show strong support and enthusiasm for Trump, while Harris faces skepticism and criticism.

Summary of Findings

• There is strong negative sentiment toward Kamala Harris with accusations of incompetence and weak leadership.
• Positive sentiment and enthusiasm toward Donald Trump, especially regarding his past performance on the economy and security.
• Concerns about election integrity and fairness, particularly media bias and potential voter manipulation.
• Immigration and security concerns feature prominently, largely favoring Trump’s policies.
• Betting market forecasts predict Trump with a slight edge, though both candidates retain significant support.

Forecasting the Likelihood of a Winner

Social media discussions suggest Americans view Trump as having a slight edge—this is also revealed betting market odds. Predictions from MIG Reports data show Trump with 55-60% voter support, while Harris gains around 40-45%. This slight advantage for Trump is driven by the intensity of supporter loyalty and their confidence in his ability to win the election.

Negative Sentiment Toward Harris

Part of what drives Trump’s odd in the prediction markets is negativity toward Harris. At least 60% of negative sentiment is directed at Harris. This negativity stems from perceptions of her incompetence, dishonesty, and ineffective leadership.

Voters say she is unable to manage the economy, border security, and disaster response. Some also label her a "liar" or "narcissist." Much of this discourse positions Harris as failing to meet the expectations of voters who prioritize strong governance.

This negative sentiment is amplified by critiques of her economic policies, with many commenters asserting she has not adequately addressed economic policies and plans. Americans view her policy proposals as politically expedient rather than results-oriented, which creates a barrier to her appeal.

Critiques are not only directed at her professional abilities but also on voter distrust, painting Harris as disconnected from the needs of the electorate.

Positive Sentiment Toward Trump

Conversely, Trump has strong support in social media discussions, with up to 85% of positive sentiment focused on him. Supporters cite his past economic successes and highlight his assertive leadership style. They use nostalgic language, emphasizing his “America First” policies and framing him as protecting traditional values.

Trump’s base is energized, expressing confidence that he will win the election. Phrases like “freedom” and “MAGA” dominate the conversation, indicating the potency of his populist appeal. Voters see him as the candidate to correct policy missteps the Biden-Harris administration, but also as the candidate to restore economic and national stability.

Concerns About Election Integrity

Both sides express concerns about election integrity as 40% of the comments voice skepticism about the fairness of the election. Trump supporters fear voter fraud or manipulation and Harris supporters fear media bias and vote suppression. There is an overall sense that the election’s outcome could be contested or undermined, regardless of who wins.

Concerns about fairness seem to fuel the enthusiasm for Trump, as many of his supporters believe winning the election will require overcoming institutional bias and cheating. This narrative has the potential to increase voter turnout on both sides, as each camp feels the integrity of their political system is at stake.

Immigration and Security Concerns

Immigration and border security is a force tipping the scales for Trump. Many argue Harris’s policies enable uncontrolled immigration, which they associate with increased crime and economic instability.

Around 75% of comments contain concern about immigration. These discussions favor Trump’s tougher stance and frame Harris as unable to handle the issue. Trump supporters view his leadership on this issue as a central reason for their continued loyalty.

Economic Issues

Trump’s successful first term regarding economic stability and growth are a major driver of positive sentiment. Roughly 68% of discussions express support for Trump, framing him as the candidate for restoring prosperity and reversing inflationary trends. Harris’s economic platform receives 65% of critical comments, highlighting her inability to navigate the complexities of recovery.

These conversations focus on how Trump’s policies led to higher employment rates, tax cuts, and general economic optimism. Voters view Harris as reactive and tied to an administration that has struggled to contain economic challenges.

Affirmative Language and Enthusiasm

Kamala Harris

Discussion about Harris does not generate significant affirmative language or enthusiasm. Less than 25% of comments voice positive sentiment towards her, and less than 10% express strong enthusiasm. Much of her support is defensive, with advocates highlighting the need for unity and social progress. However, Harris voters lack the fervor of Trump’s base. Phrases like “we can do this” appear, but they often lack the energetic confidence seen in Trump’s camp.

Donald Trump

Trump’s base voices robust enthusiasm, with 75% of comments using positive or affirmative language. His base frequently uses phrases like “MAGA” and “vote for my freedoms,” depicting a sense of urgency and passion about his candidacy. Enthusiasm for Trump remains high, peaking near 80% of comments showing strong engagement. This suggests his supporters are not only vocal but motivated to turn out and vote.

A viral video from Texas poll worker training reignited concerns about election integrity. In the clip, a trainer says the Texas Secretary of State is directing poll workers to allow non-citizen IDs to be used as valid identification at polling places. He explained this by saying poll workers are to “assume” non-citizens have become naturalized but simply failed to update their ID.

🚨BREAKING: Texas Secretary of State directs poll workers to accept NON CITIZEN driver’s licenses as ID to vote.

WATCH Denton County Elections Administrator Frank Phillips telling poll worker trainees SOS elections director
advised non citizen ID ok to vote.

See receipts🕵🏻 pic.twitter.com/MDIuRy2vPD

— Joseph Trimmer (@JosephTrimmer_) October 9, 2024

This video is sparking debate in Texas and across the country about ongoing election integrity concerns. For those already worried about election integrity, emerging reports imply calculated efforts by state and local officials to muddy the waters on voting transparency.

Republicans Most Concerned about Voter Fraud

• Conservatives: 75% believe allowing non-citizen IDs invites fraud and undermines election integrity.
• Moderates: 50% are concerned over illegal immigrants voting, though they emphasize they do not want legitimate votes suppressed.
• Liberals: 60% dismiss concerns of non-citizen voting, saying all measures in question are limited to ensuring access for legitimate voters.

Many on the right increasingly raise alarm about illegal immigrants potentially voting in the election. They say accepting non-citizen IDs is a direct assault on election integrity. Republicans are the most vocal about widespread fraud in the election, with some agreement from moderates.

Concerned voters feel betrayed by corrupt establishment powers willing to take drastic steps to secure the election for Democrats. Moderates, while less passionate, still echo caution about transparency after 2020 confusion and accusations.

Those on the left downplay concerns about illegal immigrants voting. They say illegitimate votes are either so minimal or nonexistent as to be unimportant. Instead, they focus on implementing inclusion measures, accusing conservatives of fearmongering and trying to suppress legitimate votes.

• In the last 14 days, sentiment regarding election integrity averaged 43.5% among Democrats and 39.7% among Republicans.

Election Integrity in Swing States

• 84% of voters fear fraud in critical swing states could sway election results.
• Fraud fears focus on cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit.

Election fraud in important swing states especially worries those who believe the election process is under threat. Many cite Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada as areas of high concern.

Battlegrounds where every vote is critical for securing a win put Americans are on high alert for fraud. A dramatic 84% of voters say they worry about improper voting practices, mentioning things like accepting non-citizen IDs or ballot harvesting.

Voters say they worry that even minimal fraud efforts in critical counties could sway state results and even the election. Cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit, where past allegations of fraud continue to sour trust, generate high levels of concern. Particularly on the right, many remain convinced that 2020 was rife with irregularities and attempts to exploit loopholes—both of which they say may happen again in 2024.

Disillusionment and Voter Turnout

• 45% of young voters (18-34) plan to vote in 2024.
• 62% of all voters believe media bias distorts election fraud realities.
• Many cite disillusionment with both major parties and the political system.

Many older voters are focused on election integrity, but younger voters say they feel disengaged and disillusioned. Less than half of the 18-34 demographic say they plan to vote in the 2024 election. Previous MIG Reports analysis also showed 45% of Christians say they do not plan to vote.

More than half of voters say mainstream media intentionally downplays legitimate concerns about voting irregularities. This fuels distrust in the press and voter confidence in government transparency. This distrust is strongest among Republicans who view the media as consistently running cover for Democrats.

Voter disillusionment is a growing issue for both parties, often stemming from distrust in institutions—including the election process. Young voters say Democrats and Republicans both fail to paint a compelling vision for the future. They often feel the entire political system is broken, voicing discouragement and apathy.

The risk for Trump is that growing disengagement could hurt turnout if voters do not believe the election process is secure. The GOP is making strides to implement election integrity measures, but whether that will assuage voter cynicism remains unclear.

Democrats Focus on Misinformation

• 78% of Democrats emphasize combating disinformation over voter fraud.
• Democrats worry about voter suppression and protecting access to voting.
• They dismiss worries about non-citizens voting, focusing instead on laws they see as restrictive—like voter ID laws.

Most Democrats dismiss concerns about election integrity, saying Republicans are stuck on 2020 narratives which have been proven untrue. This group is more worried about controlling disinformation on social media and right-leaning media outlets.

Combating voter suppression and preventing unfounded fraud allegations is a top priority for Democratic voters. They say election cheating narratives are politically motivated to suppress voter turnout, particularly in marginalized communities.

Republicans Tie Immigration to Election Fraud

• 72% of Republicans are skeptical about mail-in voting and illegals voting.
• 59% feel disillusioned about how GOP leadership is handling election integrity.

Skepticism and discouragement are high among Republicans. They say election integrity is critical, with 72% voicing worries about various voter fraud methods. Many Republicans believe Democrats plan to manipulate election results, with few precautions from GOP leaders.

A focal point of worry is on swing states, where control of the Senate and the White House could be at stake. Republicans often express feelings of betrayal by party leaders and say they lack confidence in a fair election.

Less than 30 days from the election, voter discussions focus on the economy, border security, disaster response. The ideological divides between Harris and Trump drive voter disagreements, but Trump looks stronger on sentiment and voter engagement.

What Voters are Saying

• 60-65% of voters voice positive opinions about Trump’s candidacy.
• The GOP base uses affirmative language of personal commitment and agency.
• 35-40% say they support Harris, with discussions driven by party loyalty and anti-Trump sentiment.
• Feelings toward Harris are mixed, with critiques of her leadership often dominating discussions.

Trump

Affirmative and Personal Support

Trump's supporters use strong, first-person language like "I believe" and "I will vote," reflecting personal investment and a sense of urgency to restore national stability.

Voters view him as competent with economic policy and national security. These issues, along with immigration, drive voter support. Many say they hope he will be a corrective force against Biden-Harris failures over the last four years.

Opposition to Democrats

Some of Trump’s support comes from voters frustrated with Biden and Harris. They disapprove of how Democrats have handled certain crises like immigration, the economy, and natural disasters. Trump's leadership offers hope for a return to order, with voters frequently invoking themes of national pride and urgency for change.

Harris

Opposition to Trump

Voter support for Harris is largely reactive. Most of her backing comes from voters who oppose Trump rather than enthusiastically endorsing her policies. First-person affirmations are less common, and the overall tone is defensive. This suggests party loyalty and anti-Trump sentiment buoy her voting base.

Progressives and Mixed Sentiment

Left leaning progressive support Harris’s stance on healthcare, education, and abortion. But much of the overall conversation is critical. Negative sentiment—even among Democrats—focuses on immigration, critiques of her leadership, and disappointment with foreign policy and the economy.

Economic Issues

• Economic dissatisfaction dominates voter conversations, mentioning inflation, high taxes, and rising costs of living.
• Many voters say Biden-Harris policies have exacerbated these issues, comparing 2024 conditions to memories of Trump’s presidency.
• Sentiment is negative, driven by frustration over stagnant wages and increased financial burdens.

Border Security

• Border security and immigration remain highly contentious, generating strong dissatisfaction.
• There is widespread anger at Biden and Harris for using FEMA funds in illegal immigrants instead of for federal disaster relief.
• Anger about FEMA funds exacerbates frustration about the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants under Biden and Harris.
• Demands for border security feeds into Trump’s "America First" messaging, reinforcing negative views of Democratic polices.

Disaster Response

• The aftermath of Hurricane Helene is driving voter ire toward Harris.
• Many voters feel the federal response has been nonexistent, with insufficient financial aid provided for Americans who lost everything.
• This issue contributes significantly to the negative sentiment, worsening negativity toward Harris in the last few weeks of campaigning.

Ideological Divide

• Americans continue to be polarized ideologically with strong national sentiments on the right, and globalist view on the left.
• Trump supporters view Democrats as advancing radical leftist policies, often calling Harris a far-left progressive, a socialist, or a communist.
• Divides are deep, with loyalty to worldview shaped as much by values as by policies.

Foreign Policy

• Many on both sides of the aisle are worried about foreign policy—particularly in Ukraine and Israel.
• Americans feel foreign conflicts divert attention and resources from domestic issues.
• Negative sentiment ties into broader anxieties about national security and government priorities, with many favoring a return to Trump's foreign policy.
• Segments of the Democratic base also object to Harris’s policy regarding Israel, accusing her of betraying progressive values by not calling for a ceasefire.

Housing

• Housing affordability is also a pressing concern.
• Voters criticize Democrats for prioritizing aid to immigrants over addressing rising costs for American families.
• There is a strong sentiment that economic and housing conditions have worsened under Biden
• People often say Trump’s presidency provided a more favorable quality of life for middle-class Americans.