Did This Election Kill Pollsters and the Mainstream Media?
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Key Takeaways
- After another abysmal cycle of election polls, Americans are done with mainstream media and pollsters.
- Many voters say they don’t trust polls and that biased political and media figures use them as rhetorical tools to influence voters.
- Americans also tie low trust in media and polling to eroding trust in the election process, with concerns about election integrity and calls for national voter ID requirements.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
20,500
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
8 Hours
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
Over the last three election cycles, trust in political polls has dramatically deteriorated. Polling inaccuracies and media reporting on potential outcomes are destroying confidence and eroding public trust. After multiple elections where predictive numbers majorly failed to capture American sentiments, many are saying they’re done with legacy institutions.
You are the media now
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2024
Americans discuss Elon Musk’s alliance with Trump and his decision to buy Twitter (now X) in 2022 as death blows to mainstream media. Discussions of news media lies being revealed through citizen journalism on X bolster sentiments that America is ready to discard legacy platforms.
Unsalvageable Distrust Among Americans
Voters have long voiced distrust toward the media and political polls, but Trump’s shocking blowout victory only confirms those sentiments. Many point to inaccurate poll projections as evidence of anti-Trump and anti-conservative bias from the establishment regime.
Many see problems both in flawed methodology and elite resentment toward average Americans. Some voters even suggest mainstream polling is manipulated or used as a rhetorical tool to favor establishment narratives.
There is a reason why educated people vote blue. What we’re seeing is the uneducated population of America holding the rest of the country hostage. This is why there’s such a push to weaken education, ban books, and outlaw the teaching of Black history by the Republican Party.
— Sueanna Smith, PhD (@SueannaSmith3) November 6, 2024
- Distrust of Accuracy: Around 37% of voters say "polling manipulation" is a primary concern, believing poll results are skewed to fit media or political agendas.
- Partisan Divide: Conservative and right-leaning voters are more likely to distrust polling data, while liberal-leaning voters show more confidence.
- Broken System: Roughly 55% of conservatives say polling inaccuracies reflect deeper issues in the election process.
The sentiment exists among traditional conservative demographics, but now also resonates among Independents who distrust poll numbers. Many suggest traditional polling techniques may no longer capture the complexities of an evolving electorate.
MIG Reports Data
Amid many wildly inaccurate traditional polls, MIG Reports data proves to be highly competitive in tracking sentiment and trends among online voters.
MIG Reports data on the morning of Election Day showed Trump winning all the competitive battle ground states except VA and MN.
As of this writing, NYT election results show:
- Wisconsin +.88 for Trump
- Virginia +5 for Harris
- Pennsylvania +2 for Trump
- Nevada +5 for Trump
- North Carolina +3 for Trump
- Minnesota +4 for Harris
- Michigan +1.6 for Trump
- Georgia +2 for Trump
- Arizona +5 for Trump
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Themes Emerging from Public Reactions
Voter sentiment surrounding polling isn’t just about accuracy—it’s an indictment of outdated and inadequate methodologies that fail to evolve with culture and technology.
- Demand for Transparency: Voters want greater transparency in polling methods. They seek clear explanations of how sample groups are selected, what adjustments are made for turnout assumptions, and how error margins are communicated.
- Media Narratives: Many say the media’s heavy reliance on polls—especially when those polls inaccurately project outcomes—only fuels distrust. They say media framing particularly underplays conservative viewpoints, causing an information bubble that misleads voters.
- Growing Cynicism: More voters are saying this election marks a shift away from mainstream reporting and polling metrics toward independent analysis. Many express hope that legacy institutions like the news media and political consultants will face extinction before 2028.
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Polling and Voting Security
Many view predictive polling inaccuracies as connected to worries about election integrity and the voting system itself. Right-leaning voters often point to polling errors as evidence the electoral process may be similarly flawed, particularly regarding voting security.
- Mail-in Voting: 40% of right leaning voters continue to express doubts about the authenticity of mail-in ballots, which they perceive as prone to manipulation.
- "Red Mirage": Some discuss the concept of the “Red Mirage,” where initial in-person voting leans right only for mail-in ballots to shift later shift results to Democrats. This reinforces their belief that mail-in voting lacks transparency and amplifies polling errors.
- Voter ID: Up to 70% of Americans support voter ID laws, seeing them as a safeguard for election security. The absence of such standards across states feeds into skepticism about the election system’s integrity.
Proposed Reforms
Given the ongoing erosion of trust in polling and news reporting, many are calling for concrete reforms.
- Polling Transparency: Voters want pollsters to provide detailed breakdowns of how samples are chosen, the assumptions behind turnout models, and the adjustments made to reflect historical voting patterns.
- Adapting Methodologies: The call for modernized polling methods is growing. Many voters believe polling organizations should explore new techniques, like online panels, that better capture the evolving nature of the electorate.
- Media Accountability: There is strong support for media outlets to emphasize the provisional nature of predictions—though many also call for the death of mainstream media altogether.
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