Christian voter intentions revealed in online discussions are divided. Various religious groups have varying priorities, concerns, and theological underpinnings influencing their desire to vote.

Recent reporting suggests only 51% of “people of faith” plan to vote in the election. MIG Reports analysis indicates some of the reasons for this divide.

NEW—According to new survey data by George Barna, only 51% of “people of faith” plan to vote this November.

TRANSLATION:

- 41 million born-again Christians WILL NOT VOTE
- 32 million mainline Christians WILL NOT VOTE

This is a five-alarm fire.

The local church must be…

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 7, 2024

Christian Voter Issues

While some issues overlap, there are several major concerns across various Christian voter groups.

35% of Christians prioritize abortion and pro-life values

• Christians, particularly evangelicals, rank abortion as one of the most critical moral and political issues.
• Many view it as religious more than political, saying candidate positions on abortion determine their suitability for leadership.
• Pro-life Christians voice their faith as a driving force for voting decisions.
• Approximately 40% of pro-life discussions commit to vote for a pro-life candidate.

30% of Christians prioritize religious freedom and morality

• Christians worry about protecting religious liberties, with a noticeable fear of increasing secularism.
• Many say candidates should defend the rights of religious institutions.
• Around 30% of discussions center on preserving Christian values in public policy.
• Christians view these issues as not both political and theological, tied directly to their biblical interpretations.

20% of Christians prioritize social justice and economic concerns

• Economic issues regarding middle-class and lower-income families drive Christian discussion.
• These voters want candidates who address economic stability, taxation, and social equity.
• About 20% of comments prioritize economic and social concerns in voting decisions.
• Many Christians view economic issues through compassion, particularly when discussing poverty and economic disparities.

25% of Christians prioritize border security

• Immigration is divisive, with 20-30% of comments voicing concerns over government policies.
• Christians who emphasize national identity and family integrity see strict immigration policies as defending Christian values.
• They aim to protect the social fabric and Christian identity of America.

15% of Christians prioritize cultural and moral decline

• Concerns over societal decay, particularly on issues like gender identity and sexual orientation, are critical for many Christians.
• 10-15% focus on the need for candidates to uphold traditional family values, with a strong emphasis on cultural preservation.

10% of Christians prioritize environmental stewardship

• A smaller group discusses environmental stewardship, particularly younger Christians.
• These voters frame their desire for climate-conscious candidates through a theological lens, viewing environmentalism as a biblical responsibility.

Issues Discouraging Voting

40-45% of Christians cite disillusionment with politics

• Many Christians feel neither political party adequately represents their values.
• A feeling of disenfranchisement drives almost half of Christians to abstain from voting.
• Concerns about political corruption and a lack of genuine Christian principles in politics are frequently complaints.

10-15% of Christians cite partisan divides

• Polarization within Christianity, especially between evangelicals and mainline Protestants, contributes to a sense of sadness and resignation.
• These divisions cause frustration over the inability to unite on moral and theological issues.

Trending Sentiments

60-70% voice negative sentiment toward current leadership

• Most Christians express dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration.
• 60-70% of discussions reflect negative sentiments, often using terms like "gaslighting" and accusations of dishonesty.
• These voters view Democrats as advancing policies that undermine Christian values, particularly on issues like abortion and religious freedom.

30% voice hope for a Christian leader

• Despite widespread disillusionment, 30% of Christians say they hope for a leader who aligns with biblical principles.
• There is desire for a leader who represents a more biblically faithful ethos, with many discussions invoking a desire for a “Christian king” figure.

Denominational Perspectives

Evangelicals

• More than half of the discussion is among evangelicals.
• This group focuses on issues like abortion, religious freedom, and traditional family values.
• They vocally support conservative candidates and are more likely to vote, viewing it as a moral obligation.

Mainline Protestants

• This group represents 20-25% of the discussion.
• Protestants are focused on social justice, climate change, and economic inequality.
• While still critical of current leadership, they are often frustrated with hyper-partisanship and seek a broader, more compassionate platform.

Catholics

• 20% of discussion is among Catholics.
• They often have a split perspective, with some emphasizing social justice and others pro-life values.
• They navigate a complicated political space, often considering candidates from both sides based on how well they articulate these issues.

Desire for Biblical Leadership

Most Christians discuss wanting a leader who embodies biblical values, sometimes voicing a desire for a "Christian king" or a leader who reflects Christian ethics and doctrines. This sentiment aligns with a desire to return to “biblical leadership,” which resonates deeply with Christian communities, particularly evangelicals.

Theology and Leadership

Discussions often invoke scriptural justifications for voter desires for a leader who rules in accordance with Christian doctrine. Christians who want a biblically faithful leader tie that idea to a belief that leadership must be guided by God’s law, reflecting both theological and moral commitments.

Social media discussions among Democratic voters reveal a growing divide in support for Harris versus Trump. Conversations contain strong emotional reactions based on personal beliefs and polarized opinions about the country’s future. MIG Reports analysis shows motivations behind Democratic voter preferences, their sentiments towards both candidates, and linguistic patterns characterizing conversations.

What Democrats are Saying

• 60-65% of Democrats are critical of Harris's leadership, particularly on immigration and economic issues.
• 35-40% of Democrats say they’re willing to support Trump, driven by frustration with the current economy and foreign policy.
• Conversations about both candidates are divided and emotionally charged, with strong language expressing support or dissatisfaction.

Support for Kamala Harris

Most Democrats support the Harris-Walz ticket—around 60-65%. These voters voice their intention to vote for Harris in November. Some of the top reasons for support include:

• Tax Policy: 45% of Democrats cite Harris’s tax policies, particularly the Child Tax Credit, as a reason for their backing. They see it as a benefit for middle-class families.
• Policy Alignment: 30% focus on abortion and DEI. Her stance on progressive issues resonates with this segment of the Democratic base.
• Party Loyalty: 25% express their loyalty to the Democratic Party, citing lifelong affiliation as their reason for supporting Harris-Walz.
• Experience: 15-25% value her experience as Vice President, viewing her as competent and capable of leading.

Support for Donald Trump

Despite his Republican affiliation, MIG Reports data suggests Donald Trump may gain votes from around 35-40% of Democratic voters. This contrasts sharply with only 15% of Republicans who say they would vote for Harris. The reasons voters cite in conversation include:

• Economic Policies: Of the 35-40% of Democrats willing to vote Trump, half emphasize his tax cuts and pro-business policies. They credit him with fostering economic stability.
• National Security: 30% of Democratic Trump supporters cite his stance on border security as a major factor driving their decision.
• Frustration with Harris: 20% crossing the aisle say they're unhappy with Biden-Harris policies on immigration and disaster response for Helene and Milton.

Sentiment and Emotional Tone

Harris Negativity

• Harris has majority support within her Party, but still faces significant criticism.
• A drastic 70% of Harris-related discussions include negative comments about her policies and leadership.
• The most frequent critiques mention her track record on immigration and a lack of competence as Vice President.
• Democrats use terms like “incompetence” and “disgrace” in Harris conversations.

Trump Polarization

• Discussion about Trump is divided, with 60% of comments positively noting his economic policies.
• 40% of Democrats talking about Trump are sharply critical of his past controversies and behavior.
• Trump supporters view him as a strong leader who can restore order, while detractors focus on his polarizing rhetoric and failures.

Swing States

In critical swing states, patterns are similar to national Democratic sentiment. Harris generally receives more support than Trump, but there is some variability compared to national trends.

Harris Support

In swing states, Harris's support varies more significantly, with Democratic approval swinging wildly between 30% and 70%.

• Reasons for support are largely consistent, mentioning social issues, tax policies, and her experience as VP.
• However, the intensity of this support fluctuates more among swing state voters.
• This variability likely reflects the more competitive nature of these states, where voters may feel less firmly aligned along party lines.

Trump Support

Trump gains higher support in some swing states. Some reports show up to 55% of early voting favoring Trump.

• Higher Trump support reveals heightened dissatisfaction with Democratic leaders on immigration and economic issues.
• Trump supporters in swing states cite his strength on national security and economic policies.
• Democratic support is likely strongest in these battleground areas compared to national support, which is dampened by deeply blue areas.

Similarities

Across both national and swing state discussions, the reasons for supporting each candidate remain consistent. Democrats like Harris for her social policies and progressive stances. But Trump gets mentioned for his economic policies and tough foreign policy. Voters nationwide express dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, particularly on immigration and disaster response.

Biggest Differences

The major difference is the level of support for each candidate. In swing states, Democrats may be more willing to cross party lines. Harris’s support indicates greater variability, suggesting she hasn’t locked in her entire base.

Trump’s support is significantly higher in some swing states, likely due to economic stressors in middle class populations and border states frustrated about immigration. Disparities underscore the unpredictable dynamics of this election, where voter sentiment is difficult to pin down and political allegiance is less fixed than in prior years.

The 2024 election is looking more like an uphill battle for Vice President Harris. Several factors, ranging from poor handling of key issues like disaster response and immigration, to lackluster media appearances, to a perceived fracture among Democrats, are compounding her challenges. MIG Reports analysis suggests the downward trajectory indicates Harris’s chances diminishing in the last month of campaigning.

Growing Negativity on Key Issues

Kamala Harris's support has been eroding across several critical issues, including Hurricane Helene response, immigration, the economy, and even abortion.

MIG Reports data shows the top discussion topics regarding Kamala Harris in the last three days reveal declining approval. Natural disasters, abortion, hospitals, Israel, national security, and the economy all show Harris with net negative support. The only issues with a net positive movement on October 8 are Palestine, her presidential nomination, and housing.

Net Change in Support (Last Three Days)

• Natural Disasters: -10 points
• Abortion Rights: -5 points
• Hospitals: -4 points

These downward trends expose rising voter frustrations on critical issues. Americans are increasingly disillusioned with Harris's inability to handle issues they find important.

Hurricane Helene Debacle

Americans are frustrated and even enraged with the federal government’s response to Hurricane Helene, often blaming Harris directly. Online conversations show people believe federal aid was misallocated during recent disasters with massive spending for illegal immigrants and a pittance for hurricane victims.

Many feel the Biden-Harris administration focuses on international aid and support for illegal immigrants over disaster relief for citizens. This has been a particular sore spot for Republican and Independent voters who are increasingly skeptical of Harris’s competence to lead in crisis situations.

Immigration and Border Security

Harris’s role as "Border Czar" has done her no favors. Her policies on border security and unclear statements about future policies anger voters. Many routinely criticize Harris for being too lenient and facilitating a mass invasion in the last three years. The perception that her administration has failed to secure the border, while prioritizing foreign aid and migrant support, has created a significant credibility gap.

Biden Jumping Ship

Many voters are now inferring discord between Harris and Biden, further eroding her credibility even within the Democratic Party. Recent examples of Biden’s public remarks have fueled speculation that the two are not on the same page, which reinforces perceptions the Party is fractured at the top.

Disjointed Messaging Hurts Party Unity

• Voters point out Biden seeming to undermine Harris regarding hurricane preparedness in Florida, with Harris claiming Governor DeSantis refuses to engage with the administration and Biden stating they’re in personal contact.
• President Biden also recently overshadowed Harris by holding a press conference at the same time Harris was scheduled to go live on CNN.
• Many also say Biden is countering Harris’s messaging by reiterating her role in the administration, saying she’s “singing from the same song sheet,” including her in negative voter sentiment about the last three years.
• Voters are also discussing alleged animosity between Biden and Harris staffers in the White House, with allegations of a physical altercation occurring among staffers.

The confusion within the administration does not put voters at ease, causing speculations about disarray, Biden’s cognitive health, and hostility within the current administration. Many on the right joke about Biden recently wearing a Trump hat, saying he’s actively working against the Harris campaign.
Democrats, meanwhile, express anxiety about Party fracture, worrying whether it hurts Harris’s chances. This disjointed messaging may signal growing problems for the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party overall.

There is a rising fear among Democrats that negative press and infighting could suppress voter enthusiasm and turnout. For a Democratic base that is already skeptical of Harris’s leadership abilities, this division is only exacerbating concerns.

Republican and Independent Sentiment

Republicans and Independents seem to be more united behind Donald Trump. Many take every opportunity to drive home their view that Harris is unfit for office. MIG Reports data shows Harris continues to trail Trump in national approval.

Voter Sentiment

• Support for Donald Trump: 53%
• Support for Kamala Harris: 45%

The sustained support gap is significant, particularly with most polling showing a tight race. All discussion data shows voters are concerned about the economy and immigration—two issues on which Harris is weak. For Republicans, there is hope that Trump is growing stronger, though many still express concerns about election integrity.

Less than a month from the election, early voting discussions among Americans reveal strong emotional engagement and division. Through analysis of voter conversations, key patterns in language, motivations, and support for Trump and Harris emerge. Sentiments among those who have already voted or plan to vote early shed light on the reasons behind their choices and how they articulate their political motivations.

• Trump has stronger support on top issues except for abortion.
• His highest leads are in campaign rallies and foreign policy.

Voter Reactions

• Trump supporters emphasize economic concerns, patriotism, and frustration with Biden and Harris.
• Harris supporters focus on social justice, stability, and empathetic leadership.
• Language among Trump supporters is often combative and urgent, while Harris supporters talk about optimism and adherence to progressive values.
• Both groups express strong emotional investment, framing early voting as crucial to the outcome of the election.

Support for Donald Trump

Among early voters, most Trump supporters express dissatisfaction with Biden and Harris, particularly on the economy and foreign policy. There is a clear desire for a return to more stable and prosperous times they experienced under Trump’s presidency.

Voters use phrases like "Trump gets things done" and "America-first policies." They vocally call for a shift back to Trump’s leadership. Republican voters emphasize voting early as an act of urgency, motivated by a belief that America’s values and future are at stake.

Trump supporters highlight patriotism and preserving traditional American values as key reasons for casting ballots early. They emphasize the need to "take back our country" and view their vote as a defense against progressive threats posed by Harris and Walz.

There is also a strong sense of community on the right, with solidarity in phrases like "we are united" and "together we will win." This collective sentiment is underscored by shared distrust of the media and election integrity, with some mentioning concerns about voter fraud or manipulation. Many call for Republicans to turn out and make a Trump win “too big to rig.”

The language among Trump supporters is aggressive and emotionally charged. Words like "disgusting," "pathetic," and "traitors" are used in reference to Democrats, emphasizing voter frustration and investment in the election’s outcome. This rhetoric positions the election as a battle for the nation’s soul, with Trump as the protector of Americas core values.

Support for Kamala Harris

The Democratic base supporting Harris tends to focus on the future and progressive change. Early voters prioritize social justice, gun control, abortion, and DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion).

Early voters saying voting is a proactive step toward ensuring progress in the face of perceived stagnation or regression under Trump. Their language reflects a commitment to progressive ideals, with phrases like "we must move forward" and "progress for all."

Harris supporters want stability and steady leadership. They say after years of political upheaval, Harris can bring balance and restore faith in democratic institutions. They use phrases like "protect our democracy" and "steady leadership," illustrating a belief in Harris’s ability to handle the economy and social division.

Personal connection and empathy are key themes in Harris support narratives. Many view Harris as representing their values, often sharing personal stories about how her policies impact their lives and emotions.

The emotional tone among Democrats contrasts with the urgency of Trump supporters. Harris’s backers focus on moral responsibility and uniting within the Party, framing early voting as a duty to prevent Trump from threatening democracy.

Less than 30 days from the election, Democratic voters have mixed emotions about the Harris-Walz ticket. Analysis of social media discussions shows that, while a foundation of confidence exists, there are significant concerns about leadership, policy effectiveness, and party unity.

Democratic voter sentiment contains optimism, skepticism, disenfranchisement, and frustration. Left-leaning media like news interviews and Saturday Night Live have begun to make some criticisms of Harris and Walz, suggesting the media firewall may be cracking with increasing voter pressure.

BREAKING: SNL just went savage on Tim Walz's disastrous VP debate performance.

DOUG EMHOFF: “Tim will be fine. It's not like he's gonna say something crazy.”

TIM WALZ: “I've become friends with school shooters!” pic.twitter.com/esLOpdATc1

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) October 6, 2024

Summary of Findings

• Democratic voters express dual sentiments about Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
• Most express confidence in the ticket’s ability to win, driven by key issues like abortion, gun violence, and economic stability.
• However, confidence is counterweighted by skepticism and pessimism, rooted in leadership concerns, disenfranchisement, and disconnect from voters.
• Themes of unity and frustration emerge as voters struggle over supporting candidates they feel have not addressed their concerns.

Confidence in the Ticket Winning

Many Democrats express confidence in Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, citing their track record on the economy, gun violence, and abortion as reasons for optimism. There is a clear belief that Harris and Walz have the potential to win. Voters talk about mobilization and turnout efforts.

Discussions include commitment to vote and collective determination. This sentiment is buoyed by a narrative of continuity and leadership, as voters want to continue the current trajectory and emphasize Democratic values.

However, much of the optimism is muted as people acknowledge the challenges of maintaining hope for a victory. These discussions reveal a tempered belief in success, where phrases like, “We need a deal maker,” are coupled with critiques of the broader political landscape. These Democrats feel it’s possible to win, but not guaranteed. They recognize the rhetorical limitations of Harris and Walz and sinking popularity.

A growing number of Democrats are expressing doubt or pessimism regarding Harris’s chances. These discussions assert that Harris and Walz are disconnected from the realities of working-class voters and have failed to address critical issues. Phrases like, “How can we win like this?” reflect a sense of disillusionment with leadership. This growing doubt exists in all groups of Democrats from average voters to pundits and political leaders.

Persistent Worries and Disenfranchisement

The most striking trend among Democrats is a sense of disenfranchisement and persistent worry. Many feel let down by party leadership, with comments frequently pointing to Harris-Walz failures in addressing pressing concerns.

People mention things like inflation, immigration, and the response to Hurricane Helene. There is frustration in phrases like, “They left thousands of people to die,” calling out the lack of accountability and responsiveness from Democratic leaders.

There is also concern among some key demographics, particularly minority communities. They feel neglected and lied to, further amplifying feelings of disenfranchisement.

Similar Arguments and Themes

Democrats also criticize Harris and Walz’s leadership, voice concerns about party unity, and a call for a new direction. Voters are frustrated with inaction by Harris and Walz who fail to take meaningful action on the economy, crime, and immigration. Many suggest Harris and Walz have not done enough to earn voter trust.

Party unity also emerges as a key concern, with some calling for a more concerted effort to consolidate Democratic support ahead of the election. While many are frustrated with the leadership, there are also voices urging the party to rally behind Harris and Walz to avoid a fractured base. Phrases like, “We need to strengthen our efforts,” reflect a recognition that internal divisions could hinder the party’s chances of success.

Finally, many want a new direction within the Democratic Party. Voters call for candidates who are more connected to grassroots movements and less beholden to traditional party politics. Comments such as, “Let’s stop voting for the party and start voting for the people,” capture the sentiment that the current leadership is not fully aligned with the needs and values of the Democratic base. This suggests a more authentic, people-centered approach—like that of RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard—may appeal more to moderate Democrats.

As the 2024 election approaches, the Republican National Committee (RNC) is making a concerted effort to ensure election integrity, recruiting more than 200,000 volunteers and 5,000 attorneys. These actions have sparked significant discussion across social media, with voters responding to grassroots support mobilization and the RNC’s legal efforts. This analysis explores the range of reactions, breaking down public sentiment, enthusiasm, and deeper trends in voter behavior.

Key Findings

• 65-75% of discussions support the RNC’s efforts, emphasizing empowerment and the need for election integrity.
• 15-25% express skepticism, particularly about the RNC’s true intentions, suspecting voter suppression tactics.
• 5-15% remain indifferent or neutral, questioning the effectiveness of the efforts.
• 60-70% show heightened enthusiasm, particularly older voters, conservatives, and rural populations.
• 55-65% highlight the RNC’s potential to sway undecided voters in key battleground states.

Sentiment Breakdown

The dominant sentiment in response to the RNC’s recruitment is positive, at least 65% of Americans express support. Many conservative voters, especially in rural areas and older demographics, feel empowered by these efforts and view them as critical to protecting election integrity.

A significant portion of younger conservatives also responds positively, with around 40% citing transparency and the need to address potential electoral injustices. Conservative minorities, including black conservatives, resonate with this narrative, making up about 30% of the positive reactions.

However, there is also a significant degree of skepticism. Around 20% express concerns that the RNC’s recruitment drive may be a guise for voter suppression tactics, particularly targeting marginalized communities. Critics say the resources allocated to these efforts might be better spent addressing more immediate electoral concerns, with some describing the initiative as a power retention strategy rather than a genuine attempt to ensure fair elections.

Around 15% are neutral or indifferent. These users acknowledge the RNC’s efforts but express doubt about their effectiveness or question whether such initiatives will substantially influence their voting behavior.

Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends

The RNC’s recruitment drive has energized the GOP base, particularly in rural areas. These voters view election integrity as a pressing issue and 65% voice a sense of urgency and enthusiasm. They suggest the initiative is likely to lead to increased voter turnout, especially from groups that already feel strongly about preserving electoral fairness.

Many express confidence that the RNC’s efforts will boost turnout in key swing states. Where voters distrust the process. Around 60% believe these recruitment efforts could influence undecided voters and help Republicans gain ground in traditionally blue areas. Around 55% view this as an opportunity to counter Democratic election narratives, further driving enthusiasm among conservative voters.

Deeper Trends and Voter Behavior

The RNC’s recruitment campaign taps into deeper narratives of empowerment, institutional distrust, and working-class disillusionment. Many are excited for grassroots mobilization, expressing pride in taking an active role in the electoral process.

This narrative may signal a shift in voter engagement, with a growing focus on local participation and community-driven activism.

The vice-presidential debate on CBS between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz sparked partisan discussion, memes, and potentially moved certain voter sentiments. Even many Democrats and mainstream media outlets are declaring Vance the decisive victor.

One of the most discussed moments of the debate was Tim Walz’s inability to clearly explain his misrepresentation about being in China on the day of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

Worst moment of the night for Walz: stumbling through an explanation of why he lied about being in China during the Tiananmen Square massacre.

One of the most awkward debate moments of my lifetime. pic.twitter.com/L6NBRAIl3F

— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 2, 2024

Vance’s Decisive Victory

Most voters and media figures agree that J.D. Vance outperformed Tim Walz during the debate. This includes Washington Post polling confirming swing state voters consider Vance the winner—14 to 8. Mainstream media figures like Geraldo Rivera, Jake Tapper, and Chris Cuomo all conceded Vance’s victory.

Media reactions after the JD Vance vs. Tim Walz debate.

Geraldo Rivera: JD Vance won the debate.

NBC: Does Tim Walz have a problem with the truth?

Chris Cuomo: JD Vance fact-checked the moderators and he was right.

CNN's John King: Vance carried the important issues.

CNN's… pic.twitter.com/5rICMSivUC

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024

Vance's assertiveness and command over key issues like immigration, law and order, and the economy helped him establish a dominant presence on stage. His assertiveness without becoming combative or insulting appeals particularly to voters in swing states and conservatives who cringe at Trump’s bombastic style.

Post-Debate Sentiment

MIG Reports data shows:

• Vance’s support increased to 52% (+2)
• Walz’s support decreased to 48% (-2)

This uptick in Vance's favor post-debate indicates his performance not only solidified his base but may help sway some undecided and Independent voters. While Walz remained steady among his core supporters, the drop in his overall numbers shows a lack of confidence in his performance.

• National approval for Vance moved from 44% on Friday to 49% post-debate.
• Walz’s approval moved from 47% on Friday to 46% post-debate.
• Both candidates generated significant discussion volume jumping from less than 10,000 mentions on Friday to 78,122 of Walz post-debate and 91,624 of Vance.

Voter Sentiment Breakdown

Republican Base

Vance’s explicit loyalty to Donald Trump and his framing of issues like immigration played well with the GOP base. His confidence and casual but precise take-down of Walz and moderator questions created a surge of praise and memes. MAGA voters see Vance as a strong voice that will carry forward Trump-era policies.

Some conservatives, however, expressed displeasure with Vance’s abortion comments, voicing frustrations that he is too moderate on pro-life issues. Others, however, say Vance had Walz on his back foot regarding abortion—an issue Democrats tend to win.

Democratic Base

Walz’s focus on reproductive rights and healthcare continues to please the Democratic base. They appreciated his defense of progressive values and insistence on being pro-woman.

However, many Democrats understood that his demeanor was less confident, overwhelmed, and less impressive than Vance’s. Many pivoted away from Walz’s performance to suggest that VP debates and VP performance in general is less important than presidential conduct.

Independent Voters

As usual, Independents are divided. Some appreciated Vance’s confident and composed demeanor, but others were skeptical of his evasive responses. They particularly disliked his responses to questions about Trump and healthcare.

Still, Vance’s unflappable presence led to focus group, polling, and sentiment data showing most Americans conclude Vance won. Vance’s performance may also appeal to certain Independents looking for stability and leadership in uncertain times.

Key Issues During the Debate

Among the issues discussed at the debate, immigration and abortion stand out.

MIG Reports analysis shows:

• Sentiment toward Vance in the 24 hours post-debate reached 44% while Walz stood at 43%.
• Immigration sentiment was 43% for Vance and 44% for Walz.
• China sentiment was 48% for Vance and 43% for Walz.
• Sentiment on the economy was 46% for both candidates.

Immigration

Vance's portrayal of the current immigration system as chaotic and harmful to the American economy resonates deeply with voters concerned about border security. This issue is particularly salient in swing states like Arizona and Florida, where border policy is a top voter concern. However, many critics took issue with Vance firing back at moderators who attempted to fact check his statements about Haitian migrants in Ohio.

JD Vance refuses to accept the fake fact check and calls out the moderators on it so they shut his mic. Incredible pic.twitter.com/yuQ0QRfYsz

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 2, 2024

Election Integrity

Vance’s response on the legitimacy of the 2020 election results divided voters along partisan lines. While it cemented his standing with Trump’s base, most other voters disliked his discussion of the 2020 election and January 6. It raised concerns among swing voters and Independents about his commitment to democratic processes.

Abortion

Although abortion is a strong issue for Democrats, it was likely one of the most divisive topics during the debate. Vance appealed to some moderates with his softer language on abortion compared to strict pro-life advocates, angering some conservatives.

However, Vance also cornered Walz on the issue of late-term abortion when Walz failed to answer a direct question about the law he signed in Minnesota. This rare maneuver by a Republican led some to feel Walz lost ground for Democrats on their top issue.

FACT: Tim Walz signed a law that allowed babies to be left to die if they survive an abortion.

Babies who are BORN ALIVE. pic.twitter.com/brmlbohKtK

— Students for Life of America | Pro-Life Gen (@StudentsforLife) October 2, 2024

Climate Change

Democrats responded positively to Walz’s position on climate change but many on the right criticized the moderators for making a question about the devastation of Hurricane Helene about climate change.

While climate change was the topic of the second question in the debate, for voters, this issue remains secondary to economic and immigration concerns.

Election Impact

J.D. Vance's victory in the vice-presidential debate strengthens his position in the Republican party as a strong leader and effective communicator. His ability to maintain support from the GOP base while reaching out to Independents and undecideds may be important in swing states.

Meanwhile, Walz and Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket face the challenge of coming across as relatable and confident to voters. Many on both sides of the aisle agree that Vance won but couch their observation in uncertainty about how much the victory can impact the election amid many other major events like potential war in the Middle East, Hurricane Helene aftermath, the dock worker strike, and critical border issues.

Both Trump and Harris are battling to secure votes from traditionally Democratic voters like minority groups and working-class Americans. These groups have reliably leaned left in the past, but recent trends suggest a growing disillusionment with Democratic leadership. This opens the door for Donald Trump to potentially make gains among voters who are typically out of reach for Republicans.

🚨Holy sht!

Even CNN is being forced to tell the American people how BAD Kamala’s polling is.

The polls have NEVER been this bad for a Democrat running against Trump.
She’s even hemorrhaging minorities.

Americans see the truth, 4 years under Kamala would WRECK our country…! pic.twitter.com/7YpSGeBVqr

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) September 24, 2024

Support

MIG Reports data suggests Trump has an approximate:

• 10-20% support among black voters.
• 20-30% support among Hispanic voters.
• 10-20% support among Asian-American voters.

While these numbers are not overwhelming, they suggest a potential increase compared to previous Republican candidates. Trump's economic message resonates with those who feel the pinch of rising inflation and stagnant wages.

#New General election poll - Hispanic voters

🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris 44%

Quinnipiac #B - LV - 9/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 25, 2024

Minority Voters Focus on Domestic Issues

MIG Reports data from voter conversations shows minority groups are overwhelmingly focused on domestic issues. Analysis suggests the economy, healthcare, and immigration dominate minority voter concerns. This focus is particularly sharp given rising costs of living, housing shortages, and ongoing healthcare debates.

Top Concerns for Minority Voters

• Economic Concerns: Rising grocery and housing prices are central issues, with many blaming Democratic policies. Minority voters often disproportionately feel economic strain and want solutions that directly impact their lives.
• Immigration and Border Security: Immigration is both practical and symbolic for minority groups. Hispanic voters often support Trump's tough immigration stance—particularly legal immigrants whose jobs are threatened by an open border.
• Healthcare and Reproductive Rights: Healthcare is a focus, especially abortion. Some minority groups are split between supporting Trump's pro-life platform and fearing his policies threaten women’s healthcare.
• Distrust of Government: Among minorities, there is deep skepticism toward government institutions and their competence. There is frustration with political leaders and agencies, which are often viewed as biased or manipulated.

Like all voters, minority groups prioritize issues they believe affect them immediately and directly. However, they often don’t focus on foreign conflicts or geopolitical strategy, instead preferring tangible solutions to domestic problems.

Contrast with Overall Voter Priorities

There is a notable difference in the top issues among minority voters compared with high priorities among all voters. National security and foreign conflicts like Ukraine and Israel are top concerns for the broader electorate, but these issues do not crack the top five among minorities.

Comparison of Top Issues

Minority Views of Trump

Historically, minority voters have been a difficult demographic for Republican candidates to attract. However, Donald Trump may have an opportunity to capture some degree of support within these communities.

Notions that Trump "helped all Americans" economically before COVID resonates with segments of black and Hispanic voters. Trump's stance on job creation and tax cuts, while controversial, appeals to those who see his policies as protecting American jobs. This is particularly true in lower-income communities.

Voters Don't Trust the Polls

Another dimension across all voter groups is skepticism of polls and the political establishment. Many believe polls cited by the media are biased or manipulated to fit a certain narrative. This distrust further complicates voter outreach efforts as many point to previous election cycles where Trump outperformed his poll numbers.

In the context of minority voters, skepticism extends to both parties but particularly harms Democrats who are seen as part of the political establishment.

Sentiment Toward Polls Among Minority Voters

• 42% express skepticism toward poll numbers.
• 21% believe polls are manipulated or biased.
• 55% show negative sentiment toward polls.

This disillusionment erodes the credibility of pollsters but also influences how voters view politicians. The Democratic Party, as the current party in power, bears the brunt of this skepticism. Trump, often viewed as a political outsider, tends to benefit from positioning himself as fighting against establishment mechanisms.

Potential to Capitalize on Anti-Establishment Sentiments

If Trump continues to make inroads with minority voters, especially in key battleground states, he could wrest important voters from Kamala Harris. While minority support for Trump remains relatively modest compared to the overall electorate, even a slight increase in black, Hispanic, or Asian-American support could prove decisive.

Analysis suggests by gaining just 5% more of the Hispanic vote in states like Florida, Nevada, or Arizona, Trump could tilt the balance in his favor. Similarly, a 3-5% increase in black voter turnout for Trump in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania could be enough to counter Democratic margins in urban areas.

However, extreme partisan divides and distrust in polling also causes some to suggest Republicans consistently remain too hopeful for gaining minority votes. This group holds that GOP ceilings for these important voters continue, even in 2024.

Every single election cycle, Republicans confidently predict that a wave of minority support for the GOP is right around the corner.

But it never seems to materialize.

Based on the past 50 years, the GOP's ceiling with minority voters seems to be:

Blacks: 15%
Hispanics: 40% https://t.co/k3Puj7NKZr pic.twitter.com/vJQqxd32Fs

— Nate Hochman (@njhochman) March 5, 2024

In the last several weeks, presidential endorsements have been playing a role in shaping voter sentiment and indicating the overall political mood. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are facing the political repercussions—positive and negative—of high-profile endorsements or lack of endorsements.

National sentiment toward Trump continues to widen the gap between candidates with 56% support for Trump—a stunning 13% lead over Harris—compared to only a 5% advantage two weeks ago.

Trump Endorsements

Donald Trump has secured endorsements highlighting his conservative and populist support, increasing the contrast between him and establishment Republicans.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Trump surprised some but shows Trump's appeal to populist and anti-establishment voters.
• Fraternal Order of Police endorsing Trump carries significant weight with law-and-order conservatives and strengthens his position as a rule of law candidate.
• Elon Musk endorsing Trump adds a layer of tech and pop culture credibility, furthering his anti-establishment image.

Harris Endorsements

Kamala Harris has had a rocky road with endorsements, particularly when it comes to working-class Americans versus celebrities and elites.

• The Teamsters Union refusing to endorse Harris is perhaps one the most notable instances. Historically, Teamsters always support Democratic candidates, but this year have refused to officially support Harris.
• Celebrities like Taylor Swift, Oprah, and Billie Eilish endorsing Harris draws excitement in her base but criticism from anti-establishment and anti-elite voters.
• The IRS Union also endorsed Harris, drawing sharp criticism from conservatives and middle-income Americans who are frustrated with the economy and taxes.
• Other establishment entities like National Security Leaders for America and those considered RINOs like Dick Cheney and 200 former GOP aides draws criticism from anti-establishment voters.

In the last two weeks, Harris has averaged higher sentiment in voter conversations about political endorsements with 48% to Trump’s 47%. But in the last three days, Trump has overtaken Harris by up to three points.

Trouble for Democrats

Unions

Recent Teamsters polling showed 58.5% of their members support Trump, with only 32.5% backing Harris. This is a significant advantage for Trump who trailed Biden by 8% just a few months ago. These cultural and political shifts signal working-class ire against Harris, raising questions about her ability to connect with traditionally Democratic blue-collar voters.

TEAMSTERS RELEASE PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT POLLING DATA

“For the past year, the Teamsters Union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic, and transparent Presidential endorsement process in the history of our 121-year-old organization—and today we are delivering on… pic.twitter.com/CnFNN9uosx

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) September 18, 2024

Many union workers enthusiastically express their support for Trump, which so far seems to be playing out in early voting and swing state support. This includes nearly 60% of Teamsters, 70% of Steamfitters Local 638, and 65-70% of UAW members.

YESTERDAY: Nearly 60% of @Teamsters are voting for President Trump.

TODAY: 70% of Steamfitters Local 638 are voting for President Trump.

ALSO TODAY: It’s estimated 65-70% of UAW members are voting for President Trump.

Hardworking Americans know President Trump HAS THEIR BACK. pic.twitter.com/fFOrRs9aXd

— Byron Donalds (@ByronDonalds) September 19, 2024

Some are interpreting the Teamsters’ decision not to endorse as a sign of low confidence in Harris's willingness to support working-class Americans. Others says it’s a result of Harris refusing to let the union's president speak at the DNC.

The IRS

Harris’s IRS endorsement may also hurt more than help her with the economy remaining a top issue for voters across the country. During a recent campaign rally, Trump mocked Harris, saying he’d “rather not have that endorsement.”

Donald Trump on Kamala Harris getting the endorsement of IRS agents:

“I would rather not have that endorsement.”🤣

pic.twitter.com/NK5eLdkeKB

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 24, 2024

Voters express outrage and concern about the potential implications of the IRS endorsement. Critics say it is a clear example of the government's overreach and politicized federal agencies. They say Harris's support for the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided the IRS with an additional $80 billion and 87,000 new agents, is a threat to individual liberties.

Law Enforcement

Some are also saying Harris’s backing from Police Leaders for Community Safety does nothing since the organization was only founded in March of 2024. This sudden emergence of alleged law enforcement support is dubious to many who point out the vague and nonspecific nature of endorsement announcements on the official Harris campaign X account.

There is particular criticism from those who decry crime rates and the rule of law under the Biden-Harris administration. This group often suggests attempts to manufacture law enforcement support is a cynical ploy by the Harris campaign to appeal to moderates and conservatives.

The single most astroturfed Presidential campaign in modern U.S. history.

The stunning endorsement that “normally backs Trump?”

They are referring to the Police Leaders for Community Safety, which was founded in March of THIS YEAR.

It’s a fake group. pic.twitter.com/g3vZfpKFAR

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 24, 2024

Are There Votes Up for Grabs?

The impact of endorsements on voter groups remains opaque, though likely concentrating support among those who already lean to one side or the other. The critical question for many is whether certain endorsements can sway critical battleground and moderate voters. MIG Reports data from voter conversations suggests:

• 20% of Democratic voters are likely swayed positively by Harris endorsements, especially from celebrities like Oprah and Taylor Swift.
• 30% of Republican voters respond positively to Trump’s endorsements, especially from RFK Jr. and the Fraternal Order of Police.
• Around 10-15% of undecided voters may move toward Harris and potentially 5-10% to Trump—although these percentages are projections with low certainty.

The Whole Picture of Endorsements

Endorsements serve as a barometer for campaign momentum—and Trump currently seems have a stronger position. His endorsements from law enforcement, tech moguls, and even former Democrats like RFK Jr. highlight his ability to appeal to a broad range of voter groups. Furthermore, his ability to draw working-class support away from traditional Democratic strongholds like the Teamsters is particularly telling.

Harris, meanwhile, is struggling to maintain enthusiasm among key demographics. While celebrity endorsements may energize certain liberal and youth segments, the lack of union support and the controversial IRS endorsement suggest her campaign faces challenges among working-class and middle-income voters. Despite Joe Biden’s low favorability prior to dropping out of the race, enthusiasm for Harris seems to be largely driven by the media, elites, and political establishment figures rather than critical moderate voting groups in swing states, which she would require to win.