Key Senate Races: Week of RNC Shows Republicans Strong

July 19, 2024 Key Senate Races: Week of RNC Shows Republicans Strong  image

Key Takeaways

  • Concluding a huge week of political news, including the final day of the RNC, Republican Senate candidates are showing leads in several critical state races.
  • Senate candidates in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Montana all lead their Democratic opponents, with some gaining their first discussion volume leads.
  • A swell of enthusiasm within the Republican Party, as Democrats grapple with how to handle Joe Biden, seems to be boosting Republican Senate candidates.

Our Methodology

Demographics

All Voters

Sample Size

12,000

Geographical Breakdown

Swing States

Time Period

7 days

MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article. 

As Republican enthusiasm surges following the RNC and Democrats show disagreement and disarray, Senate races in several key states are heating up. Amid a huge news week including Trump’s attempted assassination, J.D. Vance accepting the VP nomination, and the RNC convention, Republicans are making a strong showing in their respective Senate races.

Here is the latest EyesOver and MIG Reports analysis of Senate races in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Montana—all important races for the 2024 elections.

Nevada Senate: Sam Brown vs Jacky Rosen

The Nevada Senate race between Republican Sam Brown and Democrat Jacky Rosen shows Brown leading 60%-40% in head-to-head support. The wide gap in support comes from a significant spike in both approval and mentions for Sam Brown after his RNC appearance.

  • Over the last 7 days, Brown's lowest topic approval score is ideologies (culture issues) at 43%, while Rosen's lowest issue is the economy at 43%.
  • Brown's highest topic score is a tie between economic issues and border security at 47%. Rosen's strongest topic approval of border security is still low at 42%.
  • The top three most discussed topics in discourse mentioning Brown and Rosen were ideologies, economic issues, and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

Candidate Summary

Sam Brown and Jacky Rosen's approval disparity has widened this week after being tied last week. In the last 7 days, Brown saw a 4% lead in approval, averaging 48% to Rosen's 44% in average approval. Brown also saw higher discussion volume than Rosen for the first time over the last 7 days.

Wisconsin Senate: Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde

The Wisconsin Senate race between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde currently shows Hovde leading 57%-43% in head-to-head support. Eric Hovde enjoyed a spike in online mentions due to the RNC.

  • Over the last 7 days, Baldwin’s weakest topic approval is border security at 43%. While Hovde’s lowest topic approval score is abortion at 41%.
  • Eric Hovde's strongest topics gaining approval are economic issues and border security, both at 47%. Baldwin's highest topic approval is abortion, also at 47%.
  • The top three most discussed topics in discourse involving Baldwin and Hovde are ideologies (cultural issues), the economy, and Trump’s attempted assassination.

Candidate Summary

The gap between Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin's voter approval significantly widened compared to last week. Prior to the RNC, both were tied in approval. This week Eric Hovde holds a 47% 7-day average approval to Tammy Baldwin's 42%. This is also the first time Hovde has gained higher discussion volume than Baldwin.

Arizona Senate: Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego

In the race for Arizona Senate, Republican Kari Lake currently holds a narrow lead over Democrat Ruben Gallego, capturing 52% compared to Gallego's 48%.

  • On the issues, Kari Lake has the highest support for immigration issues, election integrity, and economic issues, all at 48%.
  • Lake’s lowest sentiment issue is gun control at 40%, due to accusations from liberals about her 2A stances following the assassination attempt.
  • Ruben Gallego’s highest issue approval is ideologies at 44%.
  • His lowest is allegations, which refer to his association with Joe Biden and other unpopular liberals.

Candidate Summary

Ruben Gallego's support score stands at 42%, while Kari Lake's support score is slightly higher at 47%. While the race has been volatile over the last month, this week Lake has maintained an average lead.

Montana Senate: Tim Sheehy vs Jon Tester

Republican Tim Sheehy also holds a lead on Jon Tester in head-to-head support in Montana. Sheehy leads at 53% to Tester’s 47%.

  • Over the last 7 days, Sheehy’s highest topic approval score is border security at 47%. Tester’s strongest topic approval score is abortion at 45%.
  • Tester's weakest topic approval score is rally at 40%, while Sheehy's is abortion at 41%.
  • The three most discussed topics in discourse involving Sheehy and Tester are ideologies, rally, and economic issues.

Candidate Summary

Sheehy and Tester's approval scores remain separated by the same 2% margin as last week, with Tester averaging 44% to Sheehy's 46%. Tester's approval dropped to its lowest point in the last 7 days after the assassination attempt on President Trump but has since recovered.

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