Over the last three election cycles, trust in political polls has dramatically deteriorated. Polling inaccuracies and media reporting on potential outcomes are destroying confidence and eroding public trust. After multiple elections where predictive numbers majorly failed to capture American sentiments, many are saying they’re done with legacy institutions.

You are the media now

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2024

Americans discuss Elon Musk’s alliance with Trump and his decision to buy Twitter (now X) in 2022 as death blows to mainstream media. Discussions of news media lies being revealed through citizen journalism on X bolster sentiments that America is ready to discard legacy platforms.

Unsalvageable Distrust Among Americans

Voters have long voiced distrust toward the media and political polls, but Trump’s shocking blowout victory only confirms those sentiments. Many point to inaccurate poll projections as evidence of anti-Trump and anti-conservative bias from the establishment regime.

Many see problems both in flawed methodology and elite resentment toward average Americans. Some voters even suggest mainstream polling is manipulated or used as a rhetorical tool to favor establishment narratives.

There is a reason why educated people vote blue. What we’re seeing is the uneducated population of America holding the rest of the country hostage. This is why there’s such a push to weaken education, ban books, and outlaw the teaching of Black history by the Republican Party.

— Sueanna Smith, PhD (@SueannaSmith3) November 6, 2024

• Distrust of Accuracy: Around 37% of voters say "polling manipulation" is a primary concern, believing poll results are skewed to fit media or political agendas.
• Partisan Divide: Conservative and right-leaning voters are more likely to distrust polling data, while liberal-leaning voters show more confidence.
• Broken System: Roughly 55% of conservatives say polling inaccuracies reflect deeper issues in the election process.

The sentiment exists among traditional conservative demographics, but now also resonates among Independents who distrust poll numbers. Many suggest traditional polling techniques may no longer capture the complexities of an evolving electorate.

MIG Reports Data

Amid many wildly inaccurate traditional polls, MIG Reports data proves to be highly competitive in tracking sentiment and trends among online voters.

MIG Reports data on the morning of Election Day showed Trump winning all the competitive battle ground states except VA and MN.

As of this writing, NYT election results show:

• Wisconsin +.88 for Trump
• Virginia +5 for Harris
• Pennsylvania +2 for Trump
• Nevada +5 for Trump
• North Carolina +3 for Trump
• Minnesota +4 for Harris
• Michigan +1.6 for Trump
• Georgia +2 for Trump
• Arizona +5 for Trump

Themes Emerging from Public Reactions

Voter sentiment surrounding polling isn’t just about accuracy—it’s an indictment of outdated and inadequate methodologies that fail to evolve with culture and technology.

• Demand for Transparency: Voters want greater transparency in polling methods. They seek clear explanations of how sample groups are selected, what adjustments are made for turnout assumptions, and how error margins are communicated.
• Media Narratives: Many say the media’s heavy reliance on polls—especially when those polls inaccurately project outcomes—only fuels distrust. They say media framing particularly underplays conservative viewpoints, causing an information bubble that misleads voters.
• Growing Cynicism: More voters are saying this election marks a shift away from mainstream reporting and polling metrics toward independent analysis. Many express hope that legacy institutions like the news media and political consultants will face extinction before 2028.

Polling and Voting Security

Many view predictive polling inaccuracies as connected to worries about election integrity and the voting system itself. Right-leaning voters often point to polling errors as evidence the electoral process may be similarly flawed, particularly regarding voting security.

• Mail-in Voting: 40% of right leaning voters continue to express doubts about the authenticity of mail-in ballots, which they perceive as prone to manipulation.
• "Red Mirage": Some discuss the concept of the “Red Mirage,” where initial in-person voting leans right only for mail-in ballots to shift later shift results to Democrats. This reinforces their belief that mail-in voting lacks transparency and amplifies polling errors.
• Voter ID: Up to 70% of Americans support voter ID laws, seeing them as a safeguard for election security. The absence of such standards across states feeds into skepticism about the election system’s integrity.

Proposed Reforms

Given the ongoing erosion of trust in polling and news reporting, many are calling for concrete reforms.

• Polling Transparency: Voters want pollsters to provide detailed breakdowns of how samples are chosen, the assumptions behind turnout models, and the adjustments made to reflect historical voting patterns.
• Adapting Methodologies: The call for modernized polling methods is growing. Many voters believe polling organizations should explore new techniques, like online panels, that better capture the evolving nature of the electorate.
• Media Accountability: There is strong support for media outlets to emphasize the provisional nature of predictions—though many also call for the death of mainstream media altogether.

The October 2024 jobs report only inflames concerns about the economy as a central election issue. The report, which revealed only 12,000 jobs added, fell drastically short of the 100,000 expected. This also comes after multiple reports were revised down, including nearly one million from April last year to March of this year.

The biggest story of the week was the jobs report:

October: 12k new jobs when 100k expected. Job growth negative if govt excluded.

September: 254k revised down to 223k (-31k).

August: 159k revised down to 78k (-81k).

Instead they got us focused on a fake poll.

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) November 4, 2024

Many also point out that what little growth there is, comes from government job growth and foreign-born worker growth. The impact of immigration on employment continues to anger Americans who struggle every day to pay their bills.

This is why so many Americans could give 2 💩 about “celebrity endorsements.”

“How dare you, get on TV and tell me who is the morally superior candidate? When’s the last time you had to put back socks at Walmart, because you can’t afford to buy them for yourself and your… https://t.co/toKZYWVcJt pic.twitter.com/j9lbDd0ZPB

— Allison Dyer (@3rdGener) November 4, 2024

Election Implications and Future Projections

The current economic situation places job growth and employment policies at the forefront of the electoral landscape. As job data continues to underperform, voters want leadership that will practically improve their lives.

Given strong disapproval among Independents and center-right voters, the jobs report likely pushes people vote for Trump. Many who are in essential swing states appear ready to shift support away from Harris and pull the lever for Republicans.

• Swing Voters and Independents: Approximately 60% of swing voters are voicing frustration with the administration’s job creation record.
• Calls for a Change: A majority of Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction. They want private-sector-driven policies over government expansion.
• MIG Reports Data: When the Oct. jobs report was released, discussion volume spiked while sentiment dropped from 46% to 40%.

Disillusionment with Job Growth

October’s weak job creation figure of 12,000—a substantial drop from expectations—causes anger and disappointment. Compounding the issue, job data for previous months is consistently revised downward, with September's jobs adjusted from 254,000 to 223,000 and August’s from 159,000 to 78,000.

These ever-weakening numbers drive deflated emotions about the economy under Biden-Harris, where “Bidenomics” is often cited as to blame.

Top Discussion Points

• Dismal Numbers: Only 12,000 new jobs were created in October, marking the lowest monthly growth since 2020.
• Private Sector Decline: Excluding government jobs, job growth was negative, intensifying frustrations at the Democratic focus on expanding public sector roles.
• Manufacturing Losses: October saw a loss of 46,000 manufacturing jobs, a statistic voters interpret as a sign of economic decline rather than growth.

Voters widely view these trends as indicative of a stalled economy, with many drawing contrasts to the “Trump boom” years. They say job creation was stronger and more favorably distributed across private sectors.

Many also complain that, even when they have work and increasing pay, their quality of life is decreasing because of inflation. This disappointment and desperation are driving people to decry the last four years—a point which the Harris campaign is forced to embrace.

Tim Walz is right. We can’t afford four more years of this! pic.twitter.com/SP9NPUmSeE

— TheLizVariant (@TheLizVariant) September 29, 2024

Government vs. Private Sector Job Growth

Americans are particularly angry about the makeup of job growth. Government employment overwhelmingly accounts for the pitiable growth numbers, which many see as unsustainable and “non-productive.” Voters say expanding government jobs does not stimulate the economy or boost GDP, which they view as the true engine of economic resilience.

The contrast in campaign platforms also becomes stark as Harris’s flagship economic contribution is more government workers while Trump has promised to appoint Elon Musk to decimate government bloat in a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Who else thinks Elon Musk should cut 80% of the Government Jobs when Trump is Elected ? pic.twitter.com/Kcyi9t97fk

— Marjorie Taylor Greene Press Release (Parody) (@MTGrepp) October 19, 2024

Top Discussion Points

• Government Dependence: Most new jobs are government, a fact voters feel props up employment numbers without improving economic conditions.
• Private Sector Struggles: With manufacturing and other private industries shedding jobs, voters feel job creation is artificial, lacking the dynamism required for sustainable growth.

For many, this trend signals an economy increasingly dependent on government intervention. Voters worry continuing in this direction will stifle private sector vitality and limit opportunities for recovery, ultimately worsening quality of life.

Immigration and Job Competition

The issue of immigration adds to voter ire. More and more voters believe lack of border control contributes directly to job disadvantages for American citizens. They say prioritizing employment opportunities for American-born workers should be a top focus, rather than policies that increase labor market competition.

Top Discussion Points

• Foreign-Born Workers: Many of the jobs added have gone to foreign-born workers, resulting in a net loss for American-born workers.
• American First: There is a strong sentiment that labor efforts should focus on hiring American citizens first to stabilize the job market for citizens.

Americans increasingly see poor border policies as a job competition issue but also emblematic widespread economic mismanagement. As the workforce grows through immigration, many worry American workers will bear the brunt of stagnant job growth.

Ideological and Political Reactions

Despite the dismal economic signals brought on by the Biden-Harris administration, there are still clear partisan divides. For conservatives, Democratic policies are synonymous with heavy-handed government control, tax hikes, and regulatory expansion.

Voters who lean right overwhelmingly see the solution as returning to the economic policies of the Trump era. They want American worker jobs, tax cuts, deregulation, and reduced reliance on government roles. Many also support Trump’s tariffs plan.

Top Discussion Points

• Free-Market Advocacy: Americans want private-sector job creation through deregulation and minimal government intervention.
• Economy Concerns: Fears about inflation, increased taxes, and a lack of opportunities have driven some Democrats and Independents toward Trump.

Disillusionment is not confined to conservatives and MAGA voters. Traditional Democratic voters and many Independents are voicing dissatisfaction. Concerns over Harris’s role in worsening inflation, combined with poor job reports, lead some former Democratic supporters to reconsider their loyalties.

In the final stretch of campaigning, Harris’s campaign trail footprint is heavily focused on urban areas and issues. Democratic voters say rural and suburban areas are feeling overlooked. This urban focus drives a sentiment of disillusionment and skepticism among non-urban Democrats, who frequently feel disconnected from Harris’s platform.

I love that Kamala Harris is doing an event in Mercer County, PA! This is deep red territory. Donald Trump won it by 25 points. It’s all about the margins. If she can bring it down to 20 points and keep her margins in Philadelphia, she wins PA, and thus the White House! pic.twitter.com/jdR9Zd23gV

— Russell Drew (@RussOnPolitics) September 5, 2024

The Forgotten Democrat

MIG Reports data shows feelings of disenfranchisement, with up to 70% of Democratic comments in non-urban areas expressing negative sentiment toward Harris.

They use terms like "liar," "elite," and "out of touch" to describe her, saying she prioritizes the interests of urban elites over those of average Americans. Only about 10% of comments reflect positive sentiment. These highlight Harris’s potential for representation, though they’re greatly overshadowed by critiques.

Approximately 20% of comments contain a mix of approval and disappointment, indicating a nuanced struggle among some Democrats who appreciate her achievements but feel alienated by her focus on urban-centric issues.

• FEC data shows Democrats raised more than $1 billion, with the highest donations in coastal states with large urban populations.
• This is compared to Republicans raising $565 million in a wider scattering of geographical donations.

Nuanced Criticisms

Several anomalies add depth to these findings. Rural and suburban voters often critique Harris’s identity as a woman of color, associating her rise with elite endorsement rather than grassroots support, which they see as alienating. They reference her ascendence to the nomination with words like, "hand-picked" and "elite politics,” highlighting discomfort with her establishment involvement.

Language

Linguistic there is a prevalence of third-person language, even in supportive comments. This suggests a passive engagement that may indicate shallow connection to Harris’s campaign. Urban supporters often use first-person pronouns ("I" and "we") to voice optimism, reflecting personal identification with her campaign.

Conversely, rural and suburban critics lean toward third-person language ("they" and "them"), which reflects detachment and a sense of alienation. This split is pronounced, with around 60% of non-urban comments using third-person references, emphasizing the ostracization this group feels from the party.

The Economy

Non-urban Democratic voters often cite economic concerns such as inflation and taxation, criticizing Harris’s policies as insufficiently addressing their financial struggles. This economic critique is an anomaly, as Democratic support is generally strong for Harris on economic issues. Voters in middle America and rural and suburban communities say Harris’s policies do not address reality.

Messaging

The communication style of Harris’s campaign adds to these frustrations, with many non-urban Democrats finding her language divisive. They say it reinforces the urban-rural divide within the Democratic base.

Harris’s style has led to increased demands for unity and respectful dialogue. Ultimately, Harris’s urban-centric approach, combined with perceived elitism and divisive rhetoric, intensifies discontent among suburban and rural Democrats.

This sentiment presents a critical obstacle to broader Democratic support, suggesting Harris's ability may not be strong enough to unify the party’s diverse voter base.