Election Day: The State of the Race
November 05, 2024Key Takeaways
- Early on Election Day, MIG Reports data shows Trump leading nationally and in multiple critical battleground states.
- Except for Virginia and Minnesota, Trump looks strong in important states including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
- Trump dominates online discussion, with 49% sentiment overall and 23,852 mentions in the last 24 hours compared to Harris’s 10,625.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
34,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
1 Day
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
On Election Day, polls are all over the place and electoral vote predictions are murkier than ever. According to MIG Reports data driven by AI and online voter discussion, Trump is leading in the most critical battleground states.
- Overall, data suggests Trump has 53% support nationally to Harris’s 45% support.
- In battleground states, Trump leads everywhere except Virginia and Minnesota, with his largest lead in Arizona at +9 and Nevada at +8.
Trump’s Base is Energized
Donald Trump’s supporters are resolute and mobilized to vote. The core of Trump’s appeal lies in his promises of economic recovery, traditional values, and an assertive national defense policy.
GOP messaging consistently underscores Biden-Harris's economic failings, especially inflation, which feel as eroding American family budgets. In daily discussions, Trump leads Harris in both volume and sentiment.
Top Voter Topics
- Economy: Voters want Trump’s economic policies, citing poor financial situations in the last four years.
- Traditional Values: Americans want a resurgence of traditional cultural values, particularly rejecting progressive values like identity politics and woke ideology.
- Border: Trump’s firm stance on border security continues to energize voters who want to prioritize Americans over illegal immigrants.
- National Security: Many express greater confidence in Trump’s ability to handle foreign nations and prevent world conflict in places like the Middle East and Russia.
Harris Struggling to Mobilize Beyond Her Base
Kamala Harris enters Election Day facing significant hurdles. While she has managed to secure strong support within progressive circles, her campaign faces resistance from moderate and undecided voters.
Critical Discussions
- Economic Concerns: Many voters say the Biden-Harris administration drastically worsened the economy. They feel rising costs of living particularly hurt Democratic appeal among working-class voters.
- Leadership: Harris critics cite her lack of achievements, inability to articulate a clear vision, and her failure to deftly handle tough questions as indicative of insufficient leadership qualities.
- Government Overreach: Harris’s stance on social justice and progressive policies, particularly regarding lawfare and proposed price controls, alienates moderates who worry about governmental overreach.
Gender Dynamics
Gender divisions play a critical role in this election. Women appear notably energized, primarily driven by abortion and healthcare access. Early reports suggest women are expected to outnumber men at the polls—though how many will vote Harris versus Trump remains to be seen.
Men are focused on economic stability and traditional values, expressing concern about rising inflation and a deterioration of trust in American institutions.
Voter Turnout Trends
- Women: Around 75% of online discussions among women focus on social justice, abortion, and healthcare.
- Men: Around 65% of discussions among men are motivated by economic conservatism and national security.