MIG Reports data shows which messaging points from the Trump campaign resonate most with Independent and crossover who support him. Several key factors increase voter enthusiasm among potentially new Republican voters.

Trump’s campaign effectively taps into urgent voter concerns about economic security, border control, law and order, and anti-establishment sentiments. These issues are driving engagement and loyalty among swing voter groups.

Border Security and Immigration

The border is consistently a top issue among Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats. Its prominence in American discourse is effectively galvanizing Independent and swing voters. Trump's hardline stance on securing the U.S.-Mexico border, enforcing immigration laws, and building a wall deeply resonates with voters who prioritize national security and economic stability.

Many moderate voters view Trump as the only candidate who addresses their concerns about the negative impact of illegal immigration and their desperation for strict border control. This issue consistently drives enthusiasm, with many expressing urgency for immigration reform and a return to Trump-era policies.

Economic Growth and Populism

Another pillar of Trump's moderate appeal is the economy. Voters respond positively to his policies aimed at reducing taxes, deregulating industries, and creating jobs through an "America First" economic agenda. Independent and crossover voters who feel left behind by globalization see Trump's protectionist trade policies and focus on revitalizing American industries as solutions to their economic frustrations.

Trump's specific proposals, such as eliminating taxes on overtime pay, tips, and Social Security benefits, are particularly well-received, fueling optimism that these changes will directly improve their financial situations. This economic populism appeals to voters who believe Trump will prioritize their financial well-being over corporate or elite interests.

Healthcare affordability and accessibility are also critical concerns among Independent and crossover voters. Many express frustration with the rising cost of healthcare and limited access to affordable insurance. They link costs to broader economic challenges.

Voters respond positively to proposals aimed at reducing healthcare costs and increasing access to affordable care, viewing these policies as essential components of economic stability and middle-class support .

Law and Order

There is growing Trump enthusiasm among those concerned with rising crime and public safety. His strong stance on curbing crime and supporting law enforcement appeals to voters who feel uneasy about rampant crime in Democrat-run regions.

Americans are disillusioned with Biden-Harris policies for public safety. Trump's emphasis on restoring order connects with voters who want leadership motivated to protect American communities and uphold traditional values.

Anti-Establishment

A growing segment of anti-establishment voters are also moving to support Trump along with figures like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. These voters feel disconnected from the political system and view Trump as standing in opposition to the corporate and political elite.

Many voters gravitate toward Trump’s message of being an outsider who challenges systems and institutions. This position makes anti-establishment voters feel their frustrations with government corruption and media bias are heard. The idea of "draining the swamp" remains a potent rallying cry, with many seeing Trump as uniquely positioned to shake up the establishment and introduce real change in Washington.

National Sovereignty and “America First”

Trump's opposition to globalism, international institutions, and trade deals resonates with voters concerned about the loss of American jobs and the erosion of national identity. His patriotic messaging, which emphasizes American exceptionalism, strikes a chord with voters who are anxious about the future of the country and want a leader who prioritizes American interests.

Support for Military and Veterans

The Biden-Harris administration’s repeated disregard for veterans and Gold Star families infuriates certain moderate voters who support the military. Enthusiasm is strong among Independent voters—particularly those who feel slighted and neglected by Democrats. Trump's promises to increase military spending and improve veterans' benefits play well with voters who prioritize national defense and view veterans as deserving more robust support.

The stark division between partisan narratives and trust in the media has grown clearer in recent weeks. Previous MIG Reports analysis showed Democrats remain one of the few groups which consistently trust mainstream media.

With 64.8% of all voters expressing strong distrust toward mainstream media, the 24.9% who say they do have trust is largely composed of Democrats. This is consistent with 2023 Gallup data showing:

• 11% of Republicans trust media
• 29% of Independents trust media
• 58% of Democrats trust media

This divergence raises significant questions about how media narratives, especially those with a partisan slant, can shape voter opinion and electoral outcomes. Media narratives, which many Americans believe are biased toward Democratic viewpoints, disproportionately influence voters who still trust these outlets.

Whether Democrats continue to trust media narratives because of confirmation bias, or those who trust media lean Democratic because they are influenced by narratives is unclear. However, the correlation of Democrats trusting the media and media promoting Democratic narratives remains.

Through selective framing, coverage time, and emphasis, the media plays an active role in shaping political perspectives, often long after stories have been debunked or corrected. MIG Reports analysis shows three recent examples of media narratives shaping Democratic voter opinions on key political issues.

Hook Line and Sinker

Migrants Eating Pets in Ohio

Following the presidential debate, rumors of Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, dominated media coverage. Mainstream media, including ABC debate moderators who fact-checked Trump, largely positioned the story as unfounded or even fabricated.

Despite copious local resident allegations, certain police reports documenting missing pets, and the Springfield city manager acknowledging claims of pets being eaten, many Democratic voters still align with media narratives critical of the story and Republicans.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• Nearly 53 hours covering the Springfield city manager’s denial in the three days following the debate.
• Only 9.5 hours covering allegations of migrants eating cats.

There is a slight increase in mentions of the Springfield city manager after footage emerged from March of 2024 in which he acknowledged resident claims. However, these media mentions only total six hours compared to 23 hours the day after David Muir’s fact check against Trump during the debate.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 80-90% Democrats still say pet consumption is unproven.
• 10-20% Democrats admit pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.
• 10-20% Republicans still say pet consumption is unproven.
• 80-90% Republicans believe pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.

The way media outlets frame the story—blaming Trump for “unproven allegations”—illustrates how media impacts perceptions. Democrats largely still dismiss the story as rumor, aligning with media talking points. Republicans, who largely distrust mainstream media, instead view the story—regardless of whether the pet consumption allegations are true—as an indictment of the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy.

The Danger of Bomb Threats

Following the media frenzy over pets in Ohio, narratives turned to bomb threats in Springfield. The media framed multiple bomb threats as a result of “dangerous” and “xenophobic” rhetoric by Trump and Republicans.

A viral clip of CNN’s Dana Bash shows her directly blaming J.D. Vance for drawing violence to Ohio through his allegedly divisive comments.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• 175 hours covering bomb threats in the last five days.
• 17 hours clarifying threats as a hoax after DeWine’s announcement.

Following Ohio Governor Mike DeWine’s announcement that the bomb threats were a hoax committed by foreign actors, media coverage continued to mention bomb threats for more than 100 hours while only mentioning them as a hoax for 17.3 total hours and a mere 17 minutes two days after the revelation.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 60% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as real.
• 20% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.
• There is no quantifiable number of Republicans discussing the bomb threats as real, but 31% express concern about community safety.
• 70% of Republicans are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.

Again, biased coverage by mainstream outlets highlights how crafted narratives push slanted perspectives on voters who trust legacy reporting. This phenomenon is exacerbated by outlets spending far less time correcting falsehoods.

Democrats, a majority of whom still trust the media, show a greater tendency to internalize the mainstream narrative without scrutiny. Republicans, who largely distrust the media, are more likely to dismiss narratives which are proven biased by independent reporting.

Golf Course Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump

The second assassination attempt on Donald Trump triggered another wave of intense media coverage. While many Democrats expressed concern about the attempt, they strongly focus on linking the event to Trump’s divisive rhetoric.

Narrative battles again erupted as Republicans claim Democrats and the media are “victim blaming” Trump by saying his own language caused the assassination attempts. Fox News reporter Peter Doocy’s confrontation with White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre about how Democrats choose to discuss these events—continuously calling Trump a “threat”—demonstrates the partisan messaging clash.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• 818.5 hours covering the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in the three days following.
• 328 hours covering Trump and mentioning his “rhetoric.”
• 671 hours covering Trump and mentioning him as a “threat.”
• 96 hours covering Trump and mentioning “threat to democracy.”
• 2.8 hours covering the assassination and mentioning “Democrat rhetoric.”

Combined hours of coverage mentioning Trump with “rhetoric,” “threat,” and “threat to democracy” total 1,095 hours compared to coverage of the assassination alone and mentions of “Democrat rhetoric” at just more than 820 hours.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 24% of Democrats are mentioning the assassination attempt.
• 60% of Democrats are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.
• 57% of Republicans are mentioning the assassination attempt.
• 21% of Republicans are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.

Once again, Democratic reactions suggest legacy media has strong influence over voter views with focus on Trump’s rhetoric rather than the assassination attempt itself. For Democrats, media framing reinforces pre-existing beliefs that Trump’s language incites violence. For Republicans, it further deepens distrust of both the media and Democrat credibility.

Media in the Tank for Democrats

Multiple data sources suggest the mainstream media’s framing of high-profile stories has a profound impact on the electorate—particularly Democrats who continue to trust these outlets. The disproportionate airtime given to narratives that align with Democratic viewpoints continues to foster anger and distrust among non-Democratic voters.

People use terms like “gaslighting,” “media bias,” and “we’re being lied to,” in discussions about how legacy outlets report on American political and cultural issues.

Increasingly, voters say they believe mainstream outlets attempt to control which stories gain traction and how long they remain in the spotlight. They suggest bias in favor of Democrats is intended to influence voter opinions and, ultimately, election outcomes.

However, given that Democratic voters compose the dwindling segment of Americans who consistently believe mainstream media narratives, some conclude the media’s influence and credibility is declining.

This is demonstrated by:

• Democrats often voting in alignment with issues amplified by the media, such as abortion, social justice, and government spending programs.
• Republicans repeatedly expressing distrust in media, driving them to seek alternative sources of information on platforms like X.

Political discourse has intensified following the Trump versus Harris debate, with MIG Reports data showing Trump continuing to surge as Harris loses momentum. Stories like the infamous Springfield, Ohio incident, where rumors swirled about Haitian migrants allegedly consuming cats and dogs, served to further polarize partisan divides. Against a backdrop of ire toward the media and Democrats, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump also ignites passions on both sides.

• National sentiment toward Trump remains strong, maintaining at least a 5-point lead over Harris since the debate.
• Republican support across the electoral college remains tight, with Democrats gaining slight ground since the debate.

Media Frenzy and Voter Anger

After the debate, headlines fixated on Springfield and the media’s demonization of Trump. The controversial Haitian migrant story brought the media and Democrats’ integrity to the forefront with Republicans hammering the underlying issue of forced migration. Democrats, meanwhile, focused on claims of misinformation from Trump and J.D. Vance, which the media said foments xenophobia and fear, leading to reported bomb threats in Springfield.

JUST IN: Ohio governor says all 33 bomb threats against Springfield, Ohio have been hoaxes that are coming from overseas.

Just another media-fueled hoax.

Governor Mike DeWine said the threats are coming from "one particular country."

"33 separate bomb threats, each one of… pic.twitter.com/JHXQqBOAEe

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 16, 2024

Ohio governor Mike DeWine’s confirmation that all 33 bomb threats in Springfield were hoaxes by foreign actors continued to stir anger from Trump supporters against the media and Democrats.

Next, Americans grew furious with the media after the second assassination attempt on Trump. Many fair-minded Americans—including former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo—express displeasure with rhetoric from Democrats and the media, who blame Trump’s own tone and language for the assassination attempt.

Watching Chris Cuomo get redpilled is absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/Ew1Dr0xj4W

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 17, 2024

Democrats, represented by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre still refuse to change their language against Trump. Even when called out by reporters, Jean-Pierre doubled down on accusations against Republicans as dangerous.

KJP rages at Fox's @Pdoocy:

Doocy: "How many more assassination attempts on Donald Trump until the president, vice president, and you pick a different word other than threat?"

KJP: "I disagree with your question." pic.twitter.com/1YSMDwXqnS

— Media Research Center (@theMRC) September 17, 2024

The Big Picture: Kamala Craters

MIG Reports analysis of likely voter base turnout among Trump and Harris supporters paints a striking picture.

• 73.7% of Trump supporters express approval and intention to vote for him.
• 52.08% of Kamala Harris supports voice approval and intention to vote.
• This is compared to 72% likely turnout for Trump and 64% for Harris pre-debate.

This gap highlights the surging enthusiasm for Trump against a loss of enthusiasm for Harris. In addition, average sentiment in conversations about Trump and Harris shows 47% approval toward Trump versus 30% toward Harris.

Conversations Mentioning Trump

• 47% of voters nationally express approval toward Trump.
• 25.5% explicitly express opposition to Trump.
• 24.5% are undecided, though a portion of the group say they lean toward Trump.

Conversations Mentioning Harris

• 29.5% of voters nationally express approval toward Harris.
• 46% explicitly express opposition to Harris.
• 20.5% are undecided or unengaged.

These numbers illustrate why Trump, despite negative press, assassination attempts, and relentless Democratic criticism, continues to maintain a robust core of dedicated voters. By contrast, Harris struggles to consolidate even her own base, facing widespread skepticism and disengagement.

Swing States and the Battle for 2024

Swing states are critical to the outcome of the 2024 election, and data suggests Kamala Harris is losing ground in key battlegrounds. Despite a small sentiment bump in some MIG Reports data sets, voter conversations about Harris remain negative.

MIG Reports initiates analysis, weighing general sentiment embedded in conversations. Analysis incorporates negativity about the assassination attempt among MAGA voters in conversations mentioning Trump as well as negativity from Democrats about Trump's rhetoric. This suggests conversation analysis remains consistent with a picture of surging support for trump and falling support for Harris.

CBS News recently reported, in critical blue counties in Nevada, reporters were only about to find a single Harris supporter. These reports align with voter sentiment analysis online.

CBS IN NEVADA: “In every single restaurant, the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant and we left no stone unturned”

pic.twitter.com/RVA0PGOC7t

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 17, 2024

Swing State Voter Sentiment

• Trump’s strong appeal to blue-collar and rural voters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, is driving much of his momentum.
• Harris struggles with perceptions of being "out of touch" with everyday Americans, an issue amplified by her progressive policies on immigration and the economy.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Support

• Social justice and equality: Supporters view Harris as a champion for marginalized groups, particularly on issues like healthcare and civil rights.
• Progressive policies: Voters value her commitment to addressing climate change and economic inequality.
• Leadership style: For some, Harris represents a strong, modern leader capable of navigating the complexities of global politics.

Opposition

• Economic concerns: Her policies on taxes and healthcare attract skepticism, especially from middle-class voters.
• Weak on immigration: Critics argue Harris has failed to secure the border, promoting open borders and forced migration.
• Character issues: There is a widespread belief that Harris lacks integrity, stemming from her policy flip-flops and public statements.

Donald Trump

Support

• Economic growth: Trump’s policies on taxes and deregulation appeal to a broad base who value economic stability.
• Border security: Voters express desire for Trump’s tough stance on immigration, securing the border, and deportation.
• Perception of strength: Despite controversial rhetoric, voters view Trump as someone who "gets things done" and stands up to political elites.
• Law enforcement: Americans like his strong emphasis on law and order.

Opposition

• Divisive rhetoric: Trump’s language on race, gender, and social issues alienates many undecided voters.
• Abortion: Many who oppose Trump cite his stance on abortion as a key factor.
• Concerns about temperament: Many raise questions about Trump's fitness for office, citing his demeanor as "unpresidential."

Where the Race Stands

Looking ahead, the data suggests Trump maintains a solid path to victory, with his core supporters holding strong and voicing enthusiasm for turning out. Harris faces the daunting task of both positioning herself against Trump but energizing a growing apathetic and divided Democratic base. Trump’s ability to rally voters—despite media opposition and political violence—will likely be pivotal in securing a win.

MIG Reports analysis of sentiment and support for Kamala Harris among Democratic voters reveals an enthusiasm gap. While some express strong support for her policies and leadership, most are not driven by Harris’s personal or candidate appeal. Instead, much of the enthusiasm stems from dislike for Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda.

Harris, who was deeply unpopular among Democrats during her 2020 presidential bid and in her tenure as Biden’s VP, seems to still be struggling with positive voter perceptions. This analysis explores key patterns behind voter support for Kamala Harris, highlighting how anti-Trump sentiment shape Democratic voter behavior.

Can Harris Pull Out a Win on Trump Hatred?

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris faces similar challenges to those in 2016 and 2004, where negative sentiment against the opposition wasn’t enough to drive turnout. In both elections, opposition to Trump and Bush was strong, but lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and Kerry respectively resulted in lower Democratic turnout.

Google search trends indicate, in the previous two election cycles, the highest spikes in user searches for “register to vote” happened in mid to late September.

This year, mail-in ballot requests in critical states like Pennsylvania are down for Democrats, both compared to Republicans and compared to Democrats in 2020.

📢 PENNSYLVANIA DATA DROP ‼️

Mail-in ballot requests R vs D

2020 (50 days out)
GOP: 376,956
Dem: 1,101,962

2024 (50 days out)
GOP: 321,077
Dem: 798,946

KAMALA IS DOWN 303,016 requests compared to 2020.

Dems are shaking in their crocs!!!

— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) September 17, 2024

Harris's policies on immigration and Palestine are controversial within her own party, with many Democrats either finding her too liberal or disagreeing with her foreign policy. If her campaign relies solely on Trump hatred without generating positive enthusiasm for her candidacy, voter turnout may fall short. This may result in a repeat of the 2016 and 2004 elections, where Democrats were surprised to find opposition wasn’t enough to secure victory.

Enthusiasm is Actually Anti-Trump Fervor

Conditional Support for Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has a base of support among Democratic voters, according to MIG Reports analysis of online discussions. Many voters praise her performance in the debate, her background as a prosecutor, and her stance on issues like social justice and healthcare.

Discussions of Kamala Harris which do not focus on the election show 43.6% express direct support for her. However, this support is not as stark with deeper analysis. In conversations mentioning Harris's policies or leadership positively, reactions also focus on the political climate over her accomplishments.

Criticism of Trump as a Driving Force

Much of the conversation among Democrats which mention Kamala Harris are not about her but rather about Donald Trump. In election-specific discussions, 25% of conversations focus solely on criticizing Trump. They label him as representing "terror" and "lies.” Harris supporters largely incorporate this sentiment in all their supportive mentions of Harris.

Voters frame Harris as a necessary opponent to Trump, positioning her as a vehicle for resisting Trump’s influence rather than rallying around her personal achievements or vision. This pattern suggests, for many Democrats, Harris represents the best hope for defeating Trump, rather than an inspiring candidate on her own.

Voter Behavior Motivated by Opposition

In conversations mentioning Trump and Harris in a head-to-head race, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiments about Harris. While 42% of the conversation was positive, much of that positivity is focused on her role as a foil to Trump. Voters view her as a champion against his policies.

Broader trends in Democratic voter enthusiasm show an urgency to reject Trump outweighing affirmative support for Harris.

Kamala as a Symbol of Opposition

In many cases, Kamala Harris's support appears to be symbolic, with voters rallying behind her as a replacement for Biden and a figurehead of the Party. While some say they appreciate her leadership and policies, 23.5% primarily criticize Trump and his allies. In addition to her role as a political opponent to Trump, Harris’s identity as a woman of color adds to the symbolic nature of her candidacy.

For many Democrats, her race and gender are celebrated as markers of progress, positioning her as a trailblazer in American politics. However, her identity also draws skepticism for others, with some feeling her symbolism outweighs her qualifications. This divide underscores the conditional nature of her support, where enthusiasm hinges on what she represents rather than her achievements.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s decision to exit the 2024 presidential race and endorse Donald Trump sparked intense debate two weeks ago. But conversations continue as legal battles play out around removing his name from certain state ballots. Some states agreed to remove RFK Jr., but others resisted. Voter reactions to this development have been divided, particularly in the states where the issue is contested.

RFK Jr.'s Exit and Ballot Controversies

RFK Jr., previously running as a third-party candidate, dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Trump. In doing so, he requested to be removed from the ballots in 10 critical states to prevent siphoning votes from Trump.

States like North Carolina and Michigan generated controversy over this issue, with state officials and courts debating the legality of his removal. While some states like North Carolina have complied, others still remain unclear about leaving his name on the ballot.

Voter Sentiments

American responses to RFK Jr.'s request and some states fighting back are divided.

Pro-Trump Voters

For many Trump supporters, RFK Jr.'s removal from the ballot is seen as a non-issue. They view his candidacy as largely irrelevant but believe his Trump endorsement, along with Tulsi Gabbard’s, solidifies a larger MAGA base. However, there are concerns about whether keeping RFK Jr. on the ballot in some states might lead to confusion among voters, especially if some Trump-leaning voters mistakenly support RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. Supporters

Some who backed RFK Jr. during his run see his removal as a form of voter suppression. Many view him as a voice against the political establishment, and his forced removal from ballots is seen as undermining democratic choice. However, there are also many RFK Jr. Supporters who have moved, with Kennedy, to support Trump, expressing a willingness to vote for him if Kennedy is removed from ballots.

Democratic Voters

For Democrats, Kennedy’s presence on ballots is potentially damaging. Many fear he could split the vote, especially in swing states, aiding Trump in securing critical electoral victories. These voters generally support removing him from ballots, expressing relief when states comply.

Swing States and Legal Battles

The reactions in swing states have been particularly intense, with significant legal and public debate over RFK Jr.’s name remaining on ballots.

North Carolina's decision to delay absentee ballots due to the removal of RFK Jr.'s name has frustrated voters across the spectrum. Pro-Trump voters are concerned that military and overseas voters, many of whom rely on absentee ballots, could be disenfranchised. The delay, while seen as necessary by some, is viewed by others as a threat to the integrity of the election process.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, RFK Jr. remains on the ballot, sparking concerns that his presence could siphon votes from Trump. Republican strategists express apprehension about the potential for confusion among voters. There is also a growing push for early voting efforts to ensure a solid base turnout.

In Ohio and Pennsylvania, the debate has become increasingly heated, with both sides accusing the other of attempting to manipulate the electoral process. The outcome of these debates could have significant implications for the 2024 presidential election. Both sides express concern about RFK Jr. Upsetting their candidate’s winning potential.

All voter conversations about RFK Jr.’s removal are marked by accusations of voter suppression, manipulation, and conspiracy theories. Trump supporters accuse states who refuse to remove him as evidence of politicization. They say many states fought Kennedy about getting on the ballot when he was in the race and are now fighting him about being removed. Meanwhile, Democrats tend to view removing Kennedy as a necessary step to avoid confusion and prevent vote-splitting.

What This Means for the 2024 Election

While the impact of RFK Jr.’s ballot presence or absence is not fully resolved, there are potential implications:

• Swing State Dynamics: In key swing states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, RFK Jr.'s presence could be a wildcard. His name could attract disaffected Independent voters, potentially pulling votes from either major party candidates. However, if his removal proceeds smoothly in more states, the focus will likely shift back to the primary candidates, diminishing his influence.
• Voter Turnout and Engagement: The delay in absentee ballots in states like North Carolina could impact voter turnout, particularly among military voters and those living abroad. Early voting drives, especially among Republicans, will be crucial to offset any confusion or disenfranchisement resulting from the ballot controversy.
• Polarization and Mistrust: The debate over RFK Jr.’s ballot presence is likely to deepen partisan divisions. As both sides accuse the other of manipulating the system, trust in the electoral process may erode further. This could fuel higher turnout among those motivated by a perceived threat to election integrity, but it could also lead to greater apathy among disillusioned voters.

MIG Reports analysis of reactions to the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) forecasting delays in operations during 2024 election generates suspicion. The report, which stemmed from a letter of 33 state and local election officials, cited “ongoing concerns about the United States Postal Service’s (USPS) performance.” Analysis of discussion and sentiment shows public opinion leans heavily towards skepticism and a significant level of worry about the health of governance and the electoral system.

NEW: 33 state, local election officials warn of "ongoing concerns about the United States Postal Service’s (USPS) performance" ahead of #Election2024

In letter to @USPS, they note "serious questions about processing facility operations, lost or delayed
election mail" pic.twitter.com/OOqfOuf3Ud

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) September 11, 2024

Will USPS Delays Will Impact the Election?

Around 66.7% of Americans express concern that USPS delays will disrupt the 2024 election. The most prominent theme emerging from MIG Reports data is fear that delayed mail-in ballots could affect voter turnout and potentially alter election outcomes. This concern cuts across all datasets, with the highest level of anxiety at 72% believing delays could cause significant problems.

The narrative consistently reflects a distrust in the USPS’s ability to handle election logistics. Voters question the mail system, saying things like, “If the USPS can't deliver mail on time, how can we trust them to deliver our ballots?” This sentiment captures the widespread apprehension about whether the correct votes will be counted.

What Happens if USPS Delays the Election?

Beyond general concerns, 53.4% of Americans believe USPS delays will lead to significant consequences, particularly voter suppression and election tampering. This sentiment spans across data sets, with Americans fearing disenfranchised. They also say issues will likely disproportionately impact marginalized communities, allowing manipulated election outcomes. Many speculate delayed ballots could sway the election results, fueling narratives of intentional election interference.

Other potential outcomes Americans discuss include civil unrest or even violence. This narrative is reinforced by fears of a “constitutional crisis” or riots in the streets. Voters express growing frustration with what they perceive as a fragile electoral process.

Thematic and Sentiment Overview

The thematic analysis reveals clear patterns of concern centered around:

• Voter disenfranchisement
• Election tampering
• Loss of trust in the electoral system

Synonymous language such as "suppression," "manipulation," and "chaos" recurs throughout discussions, emphasizing how delays could jeopardize the fairness of the election. Americans frequently mention their fear of being disenfranchised.

A smaller number of voters assert confidence, suggesting election officials will resolve any logistical challenges. Terms like "minor setback" or "USPS will figure it out" reflect a more optimistic view that the postal system will eventually deliver. These voters promote in-person alternatives for those concerned about mail-in ballots. However, even in this group, there are lingering concerns about delays could introduce some degree of uncertainty into the process.

MIG Reports data shows voter sentiment shifts following the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Views of bias from the debate moderators and broader political divides reveal anti-establishment sentiments.

The debate on ABC, moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis, sparks a discussion about media bias, political alliances, and the establishment's role in shaping the election narrative. Voters are having contentious discussions centering on the notion that Trump is running against Harris as well as the broader political and media establishment. As these reactions unfold, they provide insight into the electorate's evolving perspective on Trump's anti-establishment image in the 2024 race.

Former Democrats backing Trump reveals the same point as Dick Cheney backing Kamala Harris. It’s not really about Republicans vs Democrats. It’s about the managerial class vs the citizen. pic.twitter.com/shjcQTar9x

— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) September 11, 2024

Voters Sense Media Bias

Analysis of reactions from both sides reveals more than half of voters perceive the debate moderators and the media as biased against Trump. MIG Reports data shows 59.5% expressing dissatisfaction with the debate moderators, accusing them of favoring Harris.

Perceptions of bias feed into the broader narrative that Trump is the target of an organized hinderance effort by establishment figures. Additionally, 51.5% of voters believe Trump is actively facing opposition from establishment forces in the media and political elites in both parties. These findings illustrate the growing belief among Trump supporters that his campaign represents a challenge to entrenched powers. Voters view the election as representing more than just policy—they believe it’s a battle against a rigged system.

Trump Versus the Machine

Media Machine

Voter reactions Muir and Davis underscore perceptions of the establishment media seeking to crush Trump. This bolsters ideas that the media, a key pillar of the establishment, is unfairly targeting him.

Many believe Trump faced disproportionate scrutiny, with fact-checking and interruptions exclusively targeting him. They also assert that Kamala Harris was allowed to speak freely. Trump supporters interpret this as a clear attempt by ABC to undermine his candidacy.

• 65% criticize them for displaying bias against Trump and helping Harris.
• 72% feel the debate moderators intentionally aimed to damage Trump’s credibility.

Dissatisfaction directly fuels beliefs that the debate was not just a clash between candidates but a three-against-one demonstration of how the establishment manipulates the narrative against Trump.

Political Machine

The political establishment’s opposition to Trump also surfaces in voter conversations. More than half of discussions acknowledge that Trump's campaign faces formidable resistance from a coalition of establishment figures.

• 50% recognize establishment GOP figures like Dick Cheney and George W. Bush, appear to align with Democrats.
• 47% say the debate itself reflected political bias, with moderators pushing Democratic viewpoints to delegitimize Trump.

Voters express beliefs that Trump’s candidacy is a continuation of his fight against the "swamp," a term they use to describe career politicians and media figures who they believe undermine the interests of the American people.

Unwavering Loyalty

Views that Trump is running against the establishment further solidify supporter among anti-establishment voters. The debate reinforced their conviction that Trump stands as an outsider who challenges both parties and the media’s control. For them, the debate moderators, the format, and the overall media portrayal of Trump indicate his opposition is more than just political—it's systemic.

Despite this unfair targeting, Trump’s base remains resilient, with 60% of his supporters declaring him the winner of the debate. This emphasizes his capacity to confront establishment forces head-on.

MIG Reports analysis of voter discussions and reactions to the election debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump suggest voters believe Trump won.

Data shows distinct reactions from:

• Democrats
• Republicans
• Independents and undecided voters
• All voters combined

Weighted analysis of data from voter conversations on four key topics—security issues, border security, economic issues, and ideologies—shows a clearer understanding of voter sentiment and the perceived "winner." This analysis synthesizes opinions across different voter groups to provide a comprehensive overview of public reaction.

MIG Reports data shows across topics, Trump outperformed Kamala Harris among his base and all voters combined. However, Harris’s sentiment on the economy and ideologies may have an increased margin for error—and may potentially be artificially inflated—due to troll-posting from Trump supporters ironically praising her.

Security Issues

Security issues play a pivotal role in shaping perceptions of the candidates' debate performances. Across all voter groups, Donald Trump has a slight lead, gaining 45.46% of overall support compared Harris’s 41.98%.

• Among Democrats, Harris is seen as the more capable leader, with 65% of Democratic voters praising her confidence and preparedness.
• Republican voters show strong allegiance to Trump, with 65% believing he dominated the discussion on security.
• Independents also lean toward Trump, with 60% of their comments supporting his stance, although 25% acknowledge Harris's performance.
• 12.56% of overall voter reactions are neutral.

Border Security

Trump handily wins the immigration and border discussion across all groups, with 56.12% of total sentiments in his favor.

• Democrats largely rally behind Harris, with 65% approving her border comments, focusing on her humane approach to immigration.
• Republicans overwhelmingly back Trump, with 82% crediting him for his firm stance on border control and framing Harris as ineffective.
• Independents also lean heavily toward Trump, with 60% supporting his approach to border security, while 25% align with Harris.
• The overall voter reaction remains consistent, showing 62% support for Trump.

Economic Issues

On the economy, Trump also holds an overall advantage, with 49.29% of voters favoring him compared to 42.16% for Harris.

• Harris has 68% support among Democrats. They say she won the economic debate, citing her middle-class policies and critiques of Trump's tax cuts as effective.
• 75% of Republican voters stand firmly behind Trump, highlighting his economic record and ability to keep inflation low during his presidency.
• Independents also favor Trump on economic matters, with 65% backing his approach and 30% saying Harris performed well.
• Across all voters, the economic narrative skews toward Trump, who emerges as the more trusted candidate on this issue.

Ideologies

The ideological debate reveals a more nuanced picture, with Trump holding a lead overall at 47.79%, while Harris trails at 36.46%.

• Among Democrats, 70% say Harris won the ideological argument, viewing her progressive policies and composure as strengths.
• Republicans are loyal to Trump, with 84% supporting his stance and framing Harris’s ideas as too left leaning.
• Independents are more divided on ideological issues, with 45% favoring Trump and 33% backing Harris.
• The general electorate reflects a similar divide, with 45% for Trump and 33% for Harris. While Trump leads in overall sentiment, the ideological debate remains contested, with Harris holding significant support among certain groups.

With less than two months until the presidential election, Donald Trump is gaining momentum against a Kamala Harris—who Democrats hoped would buoy the Party after Biden’s exit. MIG Reports data shows a tight race, with Trump’s base expressing high enthusiasm and Harris facing skepticism among her ostensible supporters. The first Trump versus Harris debate is tonight, which could shift sentiments further depending on how each candidate performs.

• Nationally, Trump is recovering from a brief Harris surge following the DNC.
• Prior to the debate on September 10, Trump shows 52% support to Harris’s 48%.

• Republican support across the electoral college is moving upward, with 49% today compared to 47% for Democrats.

The Big Picture

A MIG Reports weighted analysis of real-time voter conversations suggests voter base turnout for each candidate could be around:

• 64% turnout potential for Kamala Harris
• 72% turnout potential for Donald Trump

Currently, Trump appears to have stronger voter mobilization as enthusiasm for Harris wanes amid border and Israel-Palestine drama. This alone does not suggest who will win the election due to the complexity of the U.S. Electoral College system.

More importantly, swing states show Trump slightly ahead with a rising trend. These regions are crucial for a win and Trump's solid swing state support, along with the higher turnout potential, suggests he currently has a stronger path to victory.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris faces growing skepticism from her base over the economy, the border, and the U.S. position on Israel and Hamas. There are also some mentions of controversial endorsements from figures like Dick Cheney and Vladimir Putin.

JUST IN: Vladimir Putin says he supports Kamala Harris for president, says he finds her laugh “fascinating.”

The comments come after the DOJ accused Russia of funding Tenet who then paid conservative influencers for videos.

At the moment, it’s unclear what exactly Russia’s goal… pic.twitter.com/ciXyZ4MCyU

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 5, 2024

These issues are exacerbating a rift, particularly among progressive Democrats, who see her alignment with Israel and establishment figures as problematic. Recent Party defections from public figures like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Alan Dershowitz also signal the growing discontent among Democrats.

In voter conversations about Harris:

• 64% of Democratic voters express a willingness to vote for her.
• 33% vocally oppose her candidacy.
• 15% express concerns about certain endorsements and alignments.

Harris's platform on social justice, healthcare reform, and climate change still resonates with her core supporters. However, she is struggling to mobilize undecided or moderate voters, who have been skeptical of her leadership and competence.

Donald Trump

Meanwhile, Trump enjoys fierce loyalty from his base, who remain energized despite ongoing legal and media controversies. Trump’s supporters cite his stance on law and order, his previous administration’s economic performance, the economy, and frustration with the Biden-Harris administration as reasons for their continued support.

In voter conversations about Trump:

• 72% of Trump’s voter base is excited to turn out.
• 75% of voters highlight endorsements from those like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and law enforcement as motivators.
• 82% of positive sentiments use terms like "MAGA" and "support" when discussing Trump.

Our presidential endorsement process is thorough and inclusive, involving over 377,000 members across the nation. Today, it's a privilege to announce that the collective will of our members has led us to endorse Donald J. Trump for President. We're committed to supporting… pic.twitter.com/RGQbEzroX9

— National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) (@GLFOP) September 6, 2024

Trump’s endorsements from groups like the Fraternal Order of Police have been pivotal in reinforcing his image as a law-and-order candidate. This has helped solidify his base, making voter turnout for him more likely.

• Sentiment toward each candidate in the last seven days is similar, though Trump gains significantly more mentions at 94,118 to Harris’s 42,049.
• Harris’s highest sentiment is for endorsements at 48% and her lowest is for ideologies at 42%.
• Trump’s highest sentiment is endorsements at 47% and his lowest is for allegations at 39%.

Battlegrounds Will Decide the Election

MIG Reports analysis shows a steady rise in Trump’s support both nationally and in key battlegrounds, where Harris is losing ground. The debate tonight could prove pivotal for both candidates as they aim to secure these critical electoral votes.

• In swing states, Trump leads Harris in swing states, with a 30-day average of 49% support to Harris’s 46% average.
• Third party support dropped following RFK Jr. removing himself and endorsing Trump—though Jill Stein has gained 4% support in the last few days.

Key swing state metrics:

• Trump’s support in swing states increased following the DNC from 42% to a high of 54% on August 25.
• Since then, his swing state support has evened out, averaging 49% in the last seven days.
• Harris’s support in swing states dropped following the DNC from 54% on August 21 to 45% on August 25.
• Her support also evened out, averaging 47% in the last 7 days.
• Support for third-party candidates in swing states averaged 4% in the last seven days.

Swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are critical for both candidates. Trump’s growing presence in these battleground areas puts Harris in a difficult position, as she will need to reverse this trend to secure enough electoral votes.

MIG Reports data also shows in swing states:

Donald Trump

• 70% support among white evangelicals
• 50% support from working-class voters
• 80% opposition from younger voters
• 75% opposition from urban voters

Kamala Harris

• 60-70% support among young progressive voters
• 75% opposition from older conservative voters
• 40% of comments support Harris
• 50% of comments criticize Harris

A National Base Support and Turnout

Voter turnout will be a decisive factor in the 2024 election, and Trump’s base shows higher levels of enthusiasm. Trump’s supporters are not only loyal but highly mobilized, while Harris struggles to generate the same level of enthusiasm—particularly among undecided and swing voters.

Trump’s base is solid, and his ability to maintain support from key voter groups, including working-class and rural voters, gives him an edge. Harris, meanwhile, must address the ambivalence within her base and secure a higher turnout from progressive and moderate voters.

Reasons for Voter Support

Each candidate’s voter base expresses various reasons for and against their party’s nominee. These issues will likely be important in the debate.

Kamala Harris

Reasons for supporting:

• Abortion: Democrats’ strong stance on women’s reproductive rights, especially positive among liberal and progressive voters.
• Diversity and equity: Her advocacy for an “equitable society” resonates with those who feel marginalized.
• Progressive policies: Harris endorses healthcare reform, climate action, and immigration reform.
• Representation and inclusivity: Many supporters highlight her historic role as a woman of color and her advocacy for social justice, particularly LGBTQ+ rights.
• Changing American values: Supporters see her policies as positively moving modern American values in a progressive direction.

Reasons for not supporting:

• Perceived incompetence and dishonesty: Critics label Harris as unqualified, ineffective, and politically dishonest, with concerns about her decision-making.
• Failed policies: Despite attempts to distance herself from the Biden administration, voters still associate her with failures in immigration, crime, and economic management.
• Out of touch: Many see her as part of the “liberal elite,” disconnected from ordinary concerns.
• Ideological opposition: Detractors criticize her for promoting a perceived socialist or communist agenda, which they view as a threat to American values.

Donald Trump

Reasons for supporting:

• Economic performance: Many attribute economic growth during his previous presidency to his leadership, expressing dissatisfaction with Harris’s economic policies.
• Immigration and national security: Trump’s strong stance on immigration control is seen as necessary for protecting American jobs and public safety.
• "America First" policies: Supporters admire his protectionist policies, particularly on tariffs and job preservation, viewing him as a defender of American sovereignty.
• Conservative values: Trump is often a symbol for conservative principles, especially among older and rural voters.

Reasons for not supporting:

• Moral concerns: Critics cite January 6th and his rhetoric as divisive and damaging to democratic norms.
• Perceived dishonesty: Many opponents believe Trump undermines public trust by perpetuating false narratives, especially around election integrity.
• Social issues: Younger voters and minority groups often oppose Trump over concerns about social justice, climate change, and abortion.
• Divisive leadership style: Many are concerned Trump’s approach fosters division rather than unity, especially his incendiary remarks.