J.D. Vance Roundly Defeats Walz, Democrats Crow About Abortion
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Key Takeaways
- Americans overwhelmingly conclude that J.D. Vance won the vice-presidential debate, but partisans are still dug in.
- Vance’s confidence, composure, and clear answers won voters over while Walz was perceived as nervous, meek, and at times stumped.
- While many agree the debate may not have significant impact on the overall public, it seems to solidify support among the GOP base.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
170,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
1 Day
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
The vice-presidential debate on CBS between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz sparked partisan discussion, memes, and potentially moved certain voter sentiments. Even many Democrats and mainstream media outlets are declaring Vance the decisive victor.
One of the most discussed moments of the debate was Tim Walz’s inability to clearly explain his misrepresentation about being in China on the day of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
Worst moment of the night for Walz: stumbling through an explanation of why he lied about being in China during the Tiananmen Square massacre.
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 2, 2024
One of the most awkward debate moments of my lifetime. pic.twitter.com/L6NBRAIl3F
Vance’s Decisive Victory
Most voters and media figures agree that J.D. Vance outperformed Tim Walz during the debate. This includes Washington Post polling confirming swing state voters consider Vance the winner—14 to 8. Mainstream media figures like Geraldo Rivera, Jake Tapper, and Chris Cuomo all conceded Vance’s victory.
Media reactions after the JD Vance vs. Tim Walz debate.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024
Geraldo Rivera: JD Vance won the debate.
NBC: Does Tim Walz have a problem with the truth?
Chris Cuomo: JD Vance fact-checked the moderators and he was right.
CNN's John King: Vance carried the important issues.
CNN's… pic.twitter.com/5rICMSivUC
Vance's assertiveness and command over key issues like immigration, law and order, and the economy helped him establish a dominant presence on stage. His assertiveness without becoming combative or insulting appeals particularly to voters in swing states and conservatives who cringe at Trump’s bombastic style.
Post-Debate Sentiment
MIG Reports data shows:
- Vance’s support increased to 52% (+2)
- Walz’s support decreased to 48% (-2)
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This uptick in Vance's favor post-debate indicates his performance not only solidified his base but may help sway some undecided and Independent voters. While Walz remained steady among his core supporters, the drop in his overall numbers shows a lack of confidence in his performance.
- National approval for Vance moved from 44% on Friday to 49% post-debate.
- Walz’s approval moved from 47% on Friday to 46% post-debate.
- Both candidates generated significant discussion volume jumping from less than 10,000 mentions on Friday to 78,122 of Walz post-debate and 91,624 of Vance.
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Voter Sentiment Breakdown
Republican Base
Vance’s explicit loyalty to Donald Trump and his framing of issues like immigration played well with the GOP base. His confidence and casual but precise take-down of Walz and moderator questions created a surge of praise and memes. MAGA voters see Vance as a strong voice that will carry forward Trump-era policies.
Some conservatives, however, expressed displeasure with Vance’s abortion comments, voicing frustrations that he is too moderate on pro-life issues. Others, however, say Vance had Walz on his back foot regarding abortion—an issue Democrats tend to win.
Democratic Base
Walz’s focus on reproductive rights and healthcare continues to please the Democratic base. They appreciated his defense of progressive values and insistence on being pro-woman.
However, many Democrats understood that his demeanor was less confident, overwhelmed, and less impressive than Vance’s. Many pivoted away from Walz’s performance to suggest that VP debates and VP performance in general is less important than presidential conduct.
Independent Voters
As usual, Independents are divided. Some appreciated Vance’s confident and composed demeanor, but others were skeptical of his evasive responses. They particularly disliked his responses to questions about Trump and healthcare.
Still, Vance’s unflappable presence led to focus group, polling, and sentiment data showing most Americans conclude Vance won. Vance’s performance may also appeal to certain Independents looking for stability and leadership in uncertain times.
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Key Issues During the Debate
Among the issues discussed at the debate, immigration and abortion stand out.
MIG Reports analysis shows:
- Sentiment toward Vance in the 24 hours post-debate reached 44% while Walz stood at 43%.
- Immigration sentiment was 43% for Vance and 44% for Walz.
- China sentiment was 48% for Vance and 43% for Walz.
- Sentiment on the economy was 46% for both candidates.
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Immigration
Vance's portrayal of the current immigration system as chaotic and harmful to the American economy resonates deeply with voters concerned about border security. This issue is particularly salient in swing states like Arizona and Florida, where border policy is a top voter concern. However, many critics took issue with Vance firing back at moderators who attempted to fact check his statements about Haitian migrants in Ohio.
JD Vance refuses to accept the fake fact check and calls out the moderators on it so they shut his mic. Incredible pic.twitter.com/yuQ0QRfYsz
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 2, 2024
Election Integrity
Vance’s response on the legitimacy of the 2020 election results divided voters along partisan lines. While it cemented his standing with Trump’s base, most other voters disliked his discussion of the 2020 election and January 6. It raised concerns among swing voters and Independents about his commitment to democratic processes.
Abortion
Although abortion is a strong issue for Democrats, it was likely one of the most divisive topics during the debate. Vance appealed to some moderates with his softer language on abortion compared to strict pro-life advocates, angering some conservatives.
However, Vance also cornered Walz on the issue of late-term abortion when Walz failed to answer a direct question about the law he signed in Minnesota. This rare maneuver by a Republican led some to feel Walz lost ground for Democrats on their top issue.
FACT: Tim Walz signed a law that allowed babies to be left to die if they survive an abortion.
— Students for Life of America | Pro-Life Gen (@StudentsforLife) October 2, 2024
Babies who are BORN ALIVE. pic.twitter.com/brmlbohKtK
Climate Change
Democrats responded positively to Walz’s position on climate change but many on the right criticized the moderators for making a question about the devastation of Hurricane Helene about climate change.
While climate change was the topic of the second question in the debate, for voters, this issue remains secondary to economic and immigration concerns.
Election Impact
J.D. Vance's victory in the vice-presidential debate strengthens his position in the Republican party as a strong leader and effective communicator. His ability to maintain support from the GOP base while reaching out to Independents and undecideds may be important in swing states.
Meanwhile, Walz and Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket face the challenge of coming across as relatable and confident to voters. Many on both sides of the aisle agree that Vance won but couch their observation in uncertainty about how much the victory can impact the election amid many other major events like potential war in the Middle East, Hurricane Helene aftermath, the dock worker strike, and critical border issues.
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