On Election Day, polls are all over the place and electoral vote predictions are murkier than ever. According to MIG Reports data driven by AI and online voter discussion, Trump is leading in the most critical battleground states.

• Overall, data suggests Trump has 53% support nationally to Harris’s 45% support.
• In battleground states, Trump leads everywhere except Virginia and Minnesota, with his largest lead in Arizona at +9 and Nevada at +8.

Trump’s Base is Energized

Donald Trump’s supporters are resolute and mobilized to vote. The core of Trump’s appeal lies in his promises of economic recovery, traditional values, and an assertive national defense policy.

GOP messaging consistently underscores Biden-Harris's economic failings, especially inflation, which feel as eroding American family budgets. In daily discussions, Trump leads Harris in both volume and sentiment.

Top Voter Topics

• Economy: Voters want Trump’s economic policies, citing poor financial situations in the last four years.
• Traditional Values: Americans want a resurgence of traditional cultural values, particularly rejecting progressive values like identity politics and woke ideology.
• Border: Trump’s firm stance on border security continues to energize voters who want to prioritize Americans over illegal immigrants.
• National Security: Many express greater confidence in Trump’s ability to handle foreign nations and prevent world conflict in places like the Middle East and Russia.

Harris Struggling to Mobilize Beyond Her Base

Kamala Harris enters Election Day facing significant hurdles. While she has managed to secure strong support within progressive circles, her campaign faces resistance from moderate and undecided voters.

Critical Discussions

• Economic Concerns: Many voters say the Biden-Harris administration drastically worsened the economy. They feel rising costs of living particularly hurt Democratic appeal among working-class voters.
• Leadership: Harris critics cite her lack of achievements, inability to articulate a clear vision, and her failure to deftly handle tough questions as indicative of insufficient leadership qualities.
• Government Overreach: Harris’s stance on social justice and progressive policies, particularly regarding lawfare and proposed price controls, alienates moderates who worry about governmental overreach.

Gender Dynamics

Gender divisions play a critical role in this election. Women appear notably energized, primarily driven by abortion and healthcare access. Early reports suggest women are expected to outnumber men at the polls—though how many will vote Harris versus Trump remains to be seen.

Men are focused on economic stability and traditional values, expressing concern about rising inflation and a deterioration of trust in American institutions.

Voter Turnout Trends

• Women: Around 75% of online discussions among women focus on social justice, abortion, and healthcare.
• Men: Around 65% of discussions among men are motivated by economic conservatism and national security.

The growing influence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement may have a significant impact on election results. Many people previously considered health a niche focus. But growing opposition to GMOs and skepticism of pharmaceutical companies has emerged as an important issue for critical voter groups.

MIG Reports data shows MAHA has strong support and discussion among Republicans and Independents. There is also significant discussion among women, though with moderated enthusiasm due to Kennedy aligning with Trump. Democrats discuss MAHA less, but with some disaffected segments cautiously engaging.

Independents Want Health not Partisanship

One of the most important groups influenced by the MAHA movement is Independent voters. While traditionally difficult to predict, the 2024 election seems to be shifting some previously ambivalent voters toward Trump through RFK Jr.’s health platform.

Among this group, RFK Jr.'s outsider status and his emphasis on personal liberties is key—they are not swayed by partisan arguments but may be drawn to vote for health issues they prioritize.

Their engagement with the MAHA may be nuanced as some are excited by potential health reforms, while others are hesitant about aligning with Trump.

Independent Voters

• 40-50% of Independents are actively engaging with the MAHA platform.
• 35-40% express enthusiasm for health policies, overcoming their distaste for both major political parties.
• 20-30% resonate with MAHA while remaining wary of association with Trump.

Independents are known for valuing substance over party loyalty, and health reform could be the issue that moves this key voter bloc.

Women Want Health, Despite Trump

Female voters are another key group Trump stands to gain through the MAHA coalition. This offers a unique opportunity for the GOP, which traditionally struggles to attract women.

MIG Reports data previously showed women increasing prioritize health issues. Many say they are willing to look past their concerns about Trump in favor of MAHA’s health platform. They would rather reform health policy than avoid Trump, suggesting their primary focus is on achieving tangible public health outcomes.

Female Voters

• 40% of women are discussing health and healthcare policy issues over other political topics.
• 25% say they prioritize health issues over partisanship, willing to embrace Trump.

Many women are frustrated with the current healthcare system, particularly regarding access to affordable services and nutrition in low-income areas. They see health reforms as essential to their families' well-being.

The MAHA platform’s focus on reforming healthcare, reducing chronic disease, and improving food safety has created a pragmatic voter bloc willing to support health improvements, even if it means aligning temporarily with Trump.

This group, despite strong tendencies toward pro-choice and Democratic health policies may opt to align with Republicans if it means achieving the health reforms MAHA proposes.

Disillusioned Democrats Like MAHA

In general, Democrats who support health remain wary of MAHA due to party loyalty. Many Democratic voters disapprove of RFK Jr.’s alignment with Trump, even if they were previously drawn to Kennedy’s health policies. For many Democrats, anti-Trump and partisan motivations supersede other priorities.

However, there is some engagement from disaffected former Democrats—which aligns with partisan shifts among leaders like Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard. These voters are both drawn by health autonomy but also expressing feelings of betrayal by their party. Many feel the Democratic Party, once the champion of the working class and progressive causes, has become too intertwined with corporate interests and government mandates in healthcare.

Many are also discontented about the lack of a Democratic primary, where Kamala Harris was ushered in by establishment elites. They dislike the most radical wings of the Party seeming to control policies and messaging in the current administration.

The disdain for current Democratic leadership is strong, with voters expressing feelings of betrayal from a party they once supported. One comment encapsulates this sentiment saying, "I used to be a diehard liberal, but this is no longer the party I once loved."

Democratic Voters

• 15-25% of Democrats are discussing RFK Jr. and MAHA-related topics.
• 20-30% express some interest in MAHA, though hesitant to abandon party loyalty.

For disaffected Democrats, the MAHA movement encourages taking the leap away from a Democratic establishment which clearly dismisses their health concerns. RFK Jr.’s aggressive stance against corporate power—especially his legal battles against Monsanto—resonates with those on the left who used to view Democrats as fighting against cronyism. While these Democrats may not fully align with the GOP, the MAHA movement could peel off voters who see sharp hypocrisy in Democratic messaging.

The Growing Appeal MAHA in the GOP

Another important shift is the enthusiastic embrace of RFK Jr.'s health-centric policies among Republicans. Traditionally focused on fiscal conservatism and national security, many Republicans now view personal health autonomy as imperative—especially after COVID.

The “crunchy” or health fanatic view many Republicans may previously have associated with RFK Jr.’s policies has softened. Now, many Americans view health as non-partisan, embracing any administration that will actively prioritize personal health freedoms.

Republican Voters

• 30-40% of Republicans are discussing RFK Jr. and MAHA.
• 50-70% of view MAHA positively.
• 40-50% embrace the MAHA agenda as a priority in their political considerations.

The GOP’s base has long distrusted government overreach, particularly in areas of personal liberty. This aligns MAHA's stance on health mandates, distrust of the CDC and FDA, and the fight against Big Pharma.

Kennedy’s position on vaccine mandates resonates with the anti-establishment MAGA base, which has long prioritized individual autonomy. This presents a real opportunity for the GOP to incorporate health policies which could solidify support from previously disparate voter groups.

The Hybridization of Republican Ideals

MAHA has the potential to marry traditional Republican values with a health approach that appeals to progressives. While some conservatives are wary of Trump’s moderate and progressive-leaning stances, there is an overlap in health which seems palatable across ideological lines.

Republican and Independent Enthusiasm

• MIG Reports data suggests 50-70% of Republicans and Independents overlap in their views and engagement toward MAHA.

Voters who are looking for common-sense policies that transcend partisan divides can come together under a health umbrella. For the GOP, this hybrid platform seems to be attracting new voters which are otherwise difficult to move.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s released an "Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” drawing a swift ratio from X users reacting with incredulity. Less than 24 hours after posting the proposal, it had 23 million views, 35,000 replies, and only 28,000 likes.

Black men deserve a president who cares about making their lives better. pic.twitter.com/cUCdsvvYZ6

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 15, 2024

In the proposal, Harris promises to:

• Give black men “fully forgivable” $20k loans.
• Provide “pathways to become teachers.”
• Protect the cryptocurrency investments of black men.
• Create a “national health initiative.”
• Legalize marijuana.

Most voters react to the proposal as racial pandering and empty promises, further damaging Harris’s image with the very group she’s attempting to court.

• 67% of voters distrust Harris's motives, calling the agenda empty pandering.
• 38% specifically criticize race-based crypto protections.
• 60% of non-black voters say Harris should focus on fixing her immigration policies before pandering to black men.
• 15% are cautiously optimistic but demanding more transparency.

Following Harris debuting the Opportunity Agenda, voter sentiment toward her dropped noticeably.

• Harris’s overall sentiment in the last seven days averaged 43%, dropping to 42% today.
• Specifically, sentiment on the economy dropped from 43% a week ago to 41% today and racial issues dropped from a high of 45% in the last week to a drastic 34% today.

Disingenuous Racial Politics

During the 2024 campaign season, Harris has been known for either remaining vague on her policy positions, piggybacking on Trump-Vance proposals like “No Tax on Tips” and child tax credits, or pandering with grandiose promises.

Harris’s Opportunity Agenda fits into this pattern, promising forgivable loans to black entrepreneurs and cryptocurrency protections specifically for black men. These, many say, are both incredible racial pandering and potentially illegal.

Around 67% of voters reacting are skeptical about Harris’s motivations with the proposal—this is supported by the glaring ratio on her rollout post. People point to her record as California's Attorney General, where she failed to deliver on promises related to criminal justice reform and economic empowerment. Many black voters echo sentiments like, "You are only 'supporting' Black men because you need votes."

The proposal also gained a slew of memes, mocking what many view as disingenuous and infantilizing promises to black voters.

😭😭 pic.twitter.com/SSKFTIftxC

— AtBrightone 📈 🐢 (@Atbrightone) October 15, 2024

Harris Finally Gets Specific on Policy, Too Specific

The proposal to forgive loans for black entrepreneurs and regulate cryptocurrency markets are particular points of ire for many online. Nearly 40% of those discussing the proposal specifically mention their criticism for race-specific provisions in cryptocurrency. And even more are reacting to race-restricted forgivable loans.

pic.twitter.com/B8H3xa7G8g

— The Right To Bear Memes (@grandoldmemes) October 15, 2024

Many voters view this proposal as part of a broader trend in the Democratic Party of focusing on specific groups rather than addressing the needs of nation holistically. Critics view these promises as merely symbolic, with little bearing on the real economic struggles black men, and all Americans, face.

Conservatives also argue Harris’s focus on niche financial reforms—like protections for black men in cryptocurrency —swings too far in the opposite direction from her typical evasion when asked about policy specifics.

People say things like, "Why is crypto suddenly a priority for black men when inflation is through the roof?" Voters express frustration that Biden-Harris policies have created the economic situation and skyrocketing inflation that Americans find themselves in. They view meager promises like “protecting crypto” as completely meaningless amid looming economic strain.

Legal Concerns and Unconstitutionality

The loudest outcry against the Opportunity Agenda is against forgivable loans for black entrepreneurs, which raises legal concerns about discrimination and the Constitution. Thousands of voters push back, suggesting racial policies like these probably violate anti-discrimination laws or violate the Constitution.

Also unconstitutional https://t.co/O7q6irT2UT

— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) October 15, 2024

While Harris and her supporters argue targeted programs are necessary to correct racial injustice, most Americans, including some black voters, say Harris wants to undermine equality under the law. Many point out that implementing such a racial policy would likely open up a Harris-Walz administration to lawsuits and harsh public backlash.

Immigration Overshadows Opportunity

In response to the Opportunity Agenda, many people bring up Harris’s broader track record—particularly on immigration. As the Biden administration’s "border czar," Harris faces fierce criticism for allowing an unchecked stream of illegal immigrants, including gangs, murderers, and rapists into the country.

Around 60% of non-black voters are angry about Harris’s lack of urgency over the border. They say the influx of illegal immigrants which strains American communities like Aurora, CO and Springfield, MI are more damaging to black communities than the problems which the Opportunity Agenda would attempt to solve.

Voters are frustrated that Harris is focusing on race-specific economic initiatives while neglecting critical national concerns like border security. They say her failures undermine any credibility she may have in addressing the economic challenges facing black men.

"Mass immigration does not contribute to the dreams and aspirations of Black Americans," one comment states, condemning Harris for making future promises while failing to solve current problems within her control as the sitting Vice President.

The Hollow Promises of the Democratic Party

Voters view Harris’s Opportunity Agenda as just the latest disposable promise made by Democrats to the black community—most of which go unfulfilled. A dramatic 67% of voters doubt Harris’s ability to deliver, questioning her sincerity. Black voters particularly are weary of politicians making grand promises during election cycles but reneging once in office.

This growing disillusionment among black voters is consistent with recent MIG Reports analysis showing Trump gaining with minorities. These voters are beginning to view Harris’s policies as token gestures rather than meaningful reforms.

In the first day after debuting the plan, Harris’s Opportunity Agenda has decisively been shot down by voters who question her authenticity and competence. Legal concerns about discrimination, continued disapproval about identity politics, and her administration’s failures on economic and immigration issues all suggest Harris is failing to make inroads with any American men.