The presidential race picture is unclear post-debate and amid early voting as both sides claim to have the edge in a tight race. MIG Reports analysis showed Trump surging after the first Trump-Harris debate on ABC, which coincides with Times/Siena swing state polling. Both MIG Reports data and polls show Trump gaining momentum in key battleground states and expanding his lead over Harris. With early voting underway and Harris’s numbers questionable, Democrats want a second debate.

"Kamala Harris dominated the debate" pic.twitter.com/0aXGDGsmY0

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 23, 2024

Harris announced that she has accepted an invitation from CNN for a second debate, causing a stir on social media when she called Trump the “Former Vice President.” Meanwhile, Trump remains dismissive, saying it's too late for another debate and Harris is likely losing.

Kamala: “I’d like another debate. I hope the former Vice President would agree to that.”

Which Vice President is she talking about here?
pic.twitter.com/H8JhwYICNc

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 22, 2024

JUST IN: Donald Trump says he will *not* be doing another debate in October on CNN, says Kamala Harris is "losing badly."

"The problem with another debate is that it's just too late voting has already started."

"She's had her chance to do it with Fox... but now she wants to do… pic.twitter.com/LeNTo38wVA

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 21, 2024

Voter Sentiment Breakdown

Voters from both parties are divided on whether a second debate would be productive, but Democrats largely support a second debate and Republicans do not.

• 42% of Republicans support a second debate, while 58% oppose it.
• 62% of Democrats favor another debate, with 38% opposed.

• Since the debate, national sentiment toward Trump has remained strong, surging from 52% the day following the debate to 55% today.
• Harris’s national sentiment has dipped from 47% the day following the debate to 45% today.

• In swing states, Trump has surged from an even 49% support for both candidates on the day of the debate to 50% for Trump today compared to 47% for Harris.

• Electoral college support also looks good for Trump with Republicans at 49% compared to Democrats at 47%.

Why Democrats Want a Second Debate

Among Democrats, the desire for a second debate stems from three key motivations:

• Hold Trump accountable: The top reason is an opportunity for Harris to challenge Trump and "call him out” for his dangerous and objectionable policies and rhetoric.
• Showcase Harris’s policies: Many also view a second debate as a chance for Harris to more clearly present her policies.
• Clarify issues for voters: Some Democrats believe another debate would help undecided voters gain clarity on important topics like healthcare and immigration.

Democrats who oppose a second debate cite:

• Skepticism about Trump’s participation: Some doubt Trump will engage seriously or fairly. They say he will refuse or use it to spread “misinformation.”
• Unproductive focus on personality: Some say another debate will devolve into personal attacks, giving Trump the spotlight over substantive issues.
• Harris’s ability to perform: Critics within the party worry Harris might struggle to effectively counter Trump’s aggressive tactics and off-the-cuff remarks.

Why Republicans Don’t Want Another Debate

Republicans largely dismiss or oppose the idea of another debate:

• Concerns about Trump’s performance: There’s unease about Trump’s ability to stay focused during debates. Some worry another debate would not help him.
• Debate bias concerns: Many are also critical of media outlets like CNN they view as biased in favor of Harris and actively attacking and fact-checking Trump.
• Nothing useful in a debate: Some say voters know who Trump is and will not find out anything informative from Harris, therefor another debate won't sway votes.

Those who support a second debate say:

• Redemption for Trump: Some Republicans think Trump deserves another chance to perform better, hoping in a second debate he would clearly defeat Harris.
• Show Harris’s true policies: Some say another chance to challenge Harris more directly on policy issues can still sway some undecided voters.
• Biased media: Those who say the ABC debate was unfair hope a second one will either be fair or more strongly point out bias if CNN moderators reveal bias.

What Happens if the Debate Takes Place?

Should Trump decide to accept the invitation, the potential outcomes are uncertain. For Harris, a second debate is a critical opportunity to make up lost ground. As Trump’s numbers grow, she needs a high-profile event to shift momentum back in her favor.

However, for a public sentiment comeback to be successful, Harris would need an extremely strong showing. Harris needs to resonate with swing voters on issues that matter most like the economy and the border. But she faces a challenge from progressive voters who prioritize social justice and anti-Israel issues, which alienate moderates.

For Trump, the stakes of another debate are high. While his base remains enthusiastic, another chaotic appearance could be a double-edged sword. While MAGA voters will likely continue with strong support, moderates on the fence may not like another spectacle like the viral Springfield cats and dogs issue.

A recent article discussing climate change revealed two distinct conversations:

• Climate change believer concerns about earth’s future
• Climate change skeptic arguments against worries or drastic action

Americans are quick to incorporate politics and energy policy into discussions about climate change. Sentiment trends are divided, with some voicing skepticism about the severity of climate change, while others emphasize the importance of addressing the issue urgently.

A funny thing happened as the WaPo tried to map out half a billion years of global temperatures and the "disaster of global warming" pic.twitter.com/HA6yxpf9V7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 20, 2024

Echo Chambers Sustain Voter Views

Some Americans question the validity of climate change, labeling it a "hoax" or accusing politicians and environmentalists of exaggerating its effects. They argue extreme weather events are coincidental and that fossil fuels are not a primary cause of climate change. This group typically supports politicians, like Trump and Vance, who share skepticism toward drastic government interventions to address climate change.

Americans who are deeply concerned about climate change cite its devastating impact on the environment, human health, and the economy. They argue that science is clear about the dangers of climate change, saying urgent action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy sources. These voters often express frustration with politicians who oppose climate change actions or support policies that prioritize fossil fuels over sustainability.

For the most part discussions seem isolated to those who share similar view, with little movement in opinion or engagement with the opposing side.

Public sentiment is also reflected in discussions around wind energy. Some highlight its importance for renewable energy, weather patterns, and ecosystems. Others express skepticism about the effectiveness of wind energy and argue it is not a viable alternative to fossil fuels.

MIG Reports data shows:

• 32% of comments express skepticism about the severity of climate change, labeling it a "hoax" or exaggeration
• 41% express worry about climate change, citing its impact on the environment and human health.
• 15% emphasize the importance of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power.
• 12% support fossil fuels, arguing they are necessary for economic growth and energy security.

A trending pattern emerges which reveals fear of government responses or lack thereof. Climate activists tend to fear law and regulation will not be enacted fast enough to curb the potential damages of climate change. For skeptics and doubters, fear comes more from government actions which could lead to unintended consequences. This group prefers less intervention for theoretical outcomes, which they radical speculation. Overarching themes include a general distrust toward institutions what will have industrial and financial benefits.

MIG Reports data from American conversations about the first weekend of early voting shows Trump positivity. Weighted analysis suggests the likely direction of mid-Friday through mid-Saturday early voting, as well as general discussion and sentiment trends.

According to voter discussions, Donald Trump has roughly even odds of leading in initial early voting. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, based on multiple MIG Reports data sets which—though they are not polls—often produce similar results to trusted polling.

Voter Reaction Analysis

• Trump: 66.80%
• Harris: 32.29%

Data suggests Donald Trump may lead up to 66.8% of early voting with his strongest positions on immigration, border security, and the economy. There is some concern regarding international conflict due to Trump’s polarizing leadership style—particularly regarding Israel and Ukraine).

Meanwhile, Harris does not hold a stronger position on the national security front. Harris’s support is found in discussions about healthcare, climate policy, and abortion. Harris gains ground with voters focusing on women’s rights and economic reform, although criticisms of her perceived ineffectiveness and lack of clear policy positions is pervasive.

Border Security

Border security is a dominant issue in early voter discussions, particularly for Trump supporters. Voters cite Trump's strong stance on securing the border, his push for stricter immigration policies, and his commitment to reducing illegal immigration as major reasons for their support.

Critics of Harris point to her leniency on immigration and "open borders" policies. They frame her approach as a security risk. Across voter conversations, including in early voting states, border security consistently ranks as a high priority issue. This leads to Trump gaining overwhelming support with voters who want border security urgently.

Preference for Trump also dominates about immigration policy, which many discuss with border security. His proposed wall and efforts to deport illegal immigrants resonates with voters worried about national security. Harris get criticism for her immigration policies, though some appreciate her focus on human rights and a path to citizenship for immigrants.

Economy

The economy is the other most frequently discussed issue for both candidates, though the tone varies significantly. Trump supporters praise his tax cuts, job creation, and efforts to stimulate economic growth—especially in sectors like manufacturing and small business.

Harris supporters focus on her plans to reduce inequality, provide healthcare for all, and tackle the rising cost of living. While Harris gains voters concerned about middle-class economics, Trump is the dominant choice for those focused on economic stability and conservative financial policies.

Social Justice

For Harris, social justice is a key issue among progressive voters. Discussions about her policies on racial equality, police reform, and civil rights play a central role in her appeal.

Among progressives, Trump is viewed as unsympathetic to social justice concerns as they accuse him of exacerbating racial tensions. The polarized nature of this debate shows division between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats overwhelmingly preferring Harris on social issues.

Healthcare

Healthcare is also important for Harris’s supporters. Voters are drawn to her positions on expanding access to healthcare, supporting Medicare for All, and lowering prescription drug prices.

Criticisms of Trump’s healthcare policies, particularly his efforts to dismantle Obamacare are rampant among those who prioritize healthcare access. Trump supporters are more likely to praise his administration’s deregulation efforts in the healthcare industry, focusing on lowering costs and expanding options for consumers. Many also appreciate his alignment with RFK Jr.’s health platform.

Abortion

Abortion is a particularly important issue for Harris supporters, especially among women and progressives. Harris’s pro-choice stance and her vocal support for protecting abortion rights is a pillar of her platform, gaining a large share of her voters.

Trump’s supporters, particularly those with conservative values, are strongly opposed to abortion and prefer his efforts to restrict abortion access and appoint pro-life judges to the Supreme Court. The debate over abortion is a clear line of division between the two candidates, with highly emotional and polarized discourse.

The Mood for 2024

There is a noticeable anti-establishment tone throughout voter discussions, particularly among Trump supporters. They frequently voice distrust of the current political and media systems. These voters frame their support for Trump as a rebellion against entrenched elites, corrupt governance, and bureaucratic overreach. They particularly highlight border security, economic regulation, and perceived threats to national sovereignty.

For Harris supporters, while less overtly anti-establishment, there is still some frustration with the status quo. The is a point of contention regarding social justice, healthcare, and economic inequality. Progressive voters express a desire reform, but their stance is more about transforming the current system from within, rather than overthrowing it.

Overall, the anti-establishment sentiment is stronger and more explicitly expressed on the conservative side, whereas progressive voters are more focused on reforming the existing structures rather than rejecting them entirely.