More Democrats Plan to Vote Trump than Republicans for Harris
October 11, 2024.png)
Key Takeaways
- Democratic voters are expressing greater willingness to vote for Trump, citing the economy and foreign policy.
- Around 35-40% of Democrats voice support for Trump, compared to only 15% of Republicans willing to vote for Harris.
- While Harris maintains a majority of her base, many within the Party are expressing dissatisfaction with her leadership.
Our Methodology
Demographics
Democrats
Sample Size
100,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
7 Days
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
Social media discussions among Democratic voters reveal a growing divide in support for Harris versus Trump. Conversations contain strong emotional reactions based on personal beliefs and polarized opinions about the country’s future. MIG Reports analysis shows motivations behind Democratic voter preferences, their sentiments towards both candidates, and linguistic patterns characterizing conversations.
What Democrats are Saying
- 60-65% of Democrats are critical of Harris's leadership, particularly on immigration and economic issues.
- 35-40% of Democrats say they’re willing to support Trump, driven by frustration with the current economy and foreign policy.
- Conversations about both candidates are divided and emotionally charged, with strong language expressing support or dissatisfaction.
Support for Kamala Harris
Most Democrats support the Harris-Walz ticket—around 60-65%. These voters voice their intention to vote for Harris in November. Some of the top reasons for support include:
- Tax Policy: 45% of Democrats cite Harris’s tax policies, particularly the Child Tax Credit, as a reason for their backing. They see it as a benefit for middle-class families.
- Policy Alignment: 30% focus on abortion and DEI. Her stance on progressive issues resonates with this segment of the Democratic base.
- Party Loyalty: 25% express their loyalty to the Democratic Party, citing lifelong affiliation as their reason for supporting Harris-Walz.
- Experience: 15-25% value her experience as Vice President, viewing her as competent and capable of leading.
.png)
Support for Donald Trump
Despite his Republican affiliation, MIG Reports data suggests Donald Trump may gain votes from around 35-40% of Democratic voters. This contrasts sharply with only 15% of Republicans who say they would vote for Harris. The reasons voters cite in conversation include:
- Economic Policies: Of the 35-40% of Democrats willing to vote Trump, half emphasize his tax cuts and pro-business policies. They credit him with fostering economic stability.
- National Security: 30% of Democratic Trump supporters cite his stance on border security as a major factor driving their decision.
- Frustration with Harris: 20% crossing the aisle say they're unhappy with Biden-Harris policies on immigration and disaster response for Helene and Milton.
.png)
Sentiment and Emotional Tone
Harris Negativity
- Harris has majority support within her Party, but still faces significant criticism.
- A drastic 70% of Harris-related discussions include negative comments about her policies and leadership.
- The most frequent critiques mention her track record on immigration and a lack of competence as Vice President.
- Democrats use terms like “incompetence” and “disgrace” in Harris conversations.
Trump Polarization
- Discussion about Trump is divided, with 60% of comments positively noting his economic policies.
- 40% of Democrats talking about Trump are sharply critical of his past controversies and behavior.
- Trump supporters view him as a strong leader who can restore order, while detractors focus on his polarizing rhetoric and failures.
.png)
Swing States
In critical swing states, patterns are similar to national Democratic sentiment. Harris generally receives more support than Trump, but there is some variability compared to national trends.
Harris Support
In swing states, Harris's support varies more significantly, with Democratic approval swinging wildly between 30% and 70%.
- Reasons for support are largely consistent, mentioning social issues, tax policies, and her experience as VP.
- However, the intensity of this support fluctuates more among swing state voters.
- This variability likely reflects the more competitive nature of these states, where voters may feel less firmly aligned along party lines.
Trump Support
Trump gains higher support in some swing states. Some reports show up to 55% of early voting favoring Trump.
- Higher Trump support reveals heightened dissatisfaction with Democratic leaders on immigration and economic issues.
- Trump supporters in swing states cite his strength on national security and economic policies.
- Democratic support is likely strongest in these battleground areas compared to national support, which is dampened by deeply blue areas.
.png)
Similarities
Across both national and swing state discussions, the reasons for supporting each candidate remain consistent. Democrats like Harris for her social policies and progressive stances. But Trump gets mentioned for his economic policies and tough foreign policy. Voters nationwide express dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, particularly on immigration and disaster response.
Biggest Differences
The major difference is the level of support for each candidate. In swing states, Democrats may be more willing to cross party lines. Harris’s support indicates greater variability, suggesting she hasn’t locked in her entire base.
Trump’s support is significantly higher in some swing states, likely due to economic stressors in middle class populations and border states frustrated about immigration. Disparities underscore the unpredictable dynamics of this election, where voter sentiment is difficult to pin down and political allegiance is less fixed than in prior years.
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
_.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)