Trump’s Popularity Surges, Establishment Republicans Run Home

October 10, 2024 Trump’s Popularity Surges, Establishment Republicans Run Home  image

Key Takeaways

  • A dominant 85% of Republicans say they plan to vote Trump, with 15% Harris supporters in the GOP driven by never-Trump sentiment.
  • Linguistic patterns show assertive language affirming Trump as a “warrior,” while Harris is discussed defensively, positioned as “not Trump.”
  • Supporters cite Trump’s economic success, strong national security stance, and anti-establishment rhetoric, whereas discussion of Harris is largely reactive.

Our Methodology

Demographics

Republicans

Sample Size

100,000

Geographical Breakdown

National

Time Period

7 Days

MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article. 

Discussions among Republicans on social media provides insights into their voting preferences—and clear trends toward Trump. Through affirmative first-person language, reasons for candidate support, trending discussion topics, and linguistic patterns, analysis breaks down voter likelihood in the GOP.

Less than a month away from election day, Republicans overwhelmingly support Trump, and Harris gains minimal, largely negative attention from never-Trumpers. MIG Reports data echoes NYT-Sienna polling indicating only 9% of Republicans plan to vote for Harris.

What Voters are Saying

MIG Reports data shows:

  • 85% of Republican voters express affirmative support for Donald Trump.
  • 15% voice support for Kamala Harris.
  • 75-90% of posts mentioning Trump voice optimism about his return to office.
  • 80-85% of discussions regarding Harris are negative, critiquing her policies and performance.

This data suggests, despite his polarizing image and some establishment Republicans and RINOs voicing never-Trump sentiments, most Republicans plan to vote Trump. It also undermines mainstream media and Democratic narratives suggesting Republicans are so frustrated with Trump, they’re crossing the aisle.

Anti-Trump Republicans Vote Harris

Republican discussions prominently feature affirmative, first-person language confirming support for Donald Trump. They say things like, "I’m already voting for Trump" and "Trump is the only one who can fix this country." This shows a high level of personal commitment among GOP voters who believe in his leadership and vision for America.

Discussions about Kamala Harris rarely include direct affirmations of support. When voter mention her, it is often in a cautious tone, with statements like “I’ll vote for Harris just to stop Trump.” This suggests Democratic support from Republicans is driven by animosity toward Trump or the MAGA coalition.

Reasons for Voting Preferences

  • Republicans say they support Trump for his economic record, with 65% referencing the lower unemployment rates and market stability during his administration.
  • Immigration and national security are also significant support drivers. Voters view Trump's stricter border control policies as critical.
  • Trump's combative stance against the establishment and mainstream media, seen as corrupt by many on the right, adds to his appeal.
  • Harris supporters focus may mention social justice and abortion, but their support is driven by opposition to Trump rather than endorsement for Harris.

Discussion Trends and Sentiment

  • 75-90% of discussions express confidence in Trump's ability to restore America. People mention “restoring order” and “fixing the mess.”
  • 80-85% of Harris discussions are negative, criticizing her as incompetent—especially on immigration and disaster response.

Linguistic Patterns

Linguistic analysis reveals distinct patterns in the way voters discuss Trump and Harris.

  • Trump supporters use highly emotive and assertive language, framing the election as a “battle” for America’s future.
  • They use words like “betrayed,” “destroyed,” and “warrior” convey a strong sense of urgency and personal investment in the outcome.
  • Harris voters in the GOP have a hesitant tone, where support is often expressed in defensive terms or framed as a necessary opposition to Trump.

Conclusion

The narrative emerging from Republican social media discussions shows strong loyalty and commitment to Trump. Support is driven by his track record on economic management, national security, and his anti-establishment stance.

While Kamala Harris garners some support, it is largely from never-Trumpers rather than supporters who appreciate her policies or leadership. The highly polarized nature of the language used to discuss these candidates reflects partisan ideological divides shaping the 2024 election.

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