An analysis of swing states by MIG Reports in the upcoming 2024 presidential election indicates former President Trump has a slight lead over President Biden on three key issues: border security, the economy, and foreign wars.

Several other data points also indicate a preference for Trump, highlighting successes from his administration and a general distrust of Biden’s leadership. Additionally, criticism of Biden appears to reflect recent and ongoing events. Criticisms of Trump are largely historical events like “Russiagate” and his handling of COVID, rather than current issues.

2024 President Race

Pennsylvania

Discussion about Trump is centered on his potential re-election and the perception that he still poses a significant challenge to the current administration. Some voters believe there are politicized efforts to mitigate his influence. They infer this means he remains an influential figure in politics, despite Democratic hopes to the contrary.

Conversations about Biden are predominantly critical. There are many accusations ranging from personal dishonesty to broader criticisms of his administration's handling of immigration and foreign conflicts. Despite negative sentiment, some voters express support for Biden's efforts to bring change and view him as the best option for Democratic re-election.

Georgia

Sentiment towards Trump is predominantly negative in Georgia. Voters focus on his past actions which they view as disrespectful or deceitful. Most conversations suggest little support for Trump’s potential return to office. However, there are pockets of supporters who believe in his chances of winning, highlighting the persistence of his voter base.

Discussions about Biden highlight his empathetic side, accomplishments, and significant support. There is specific discussion about his work with a young boy who stutters and his campaign's success in engaging younger voters. However, there are also criticisms and skepticism of his administration's effectiveness and integrity, including doubts about a potential second term.

Florida

Discussion trends among Trump supporters focus on calls for Biden's impeachment, citing perceived failures in his administration and criticism of the economy. There's also strong opposition towards Biden, with doubts about the legitimacy of his 2020 election and criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris's handling of the border crisis.

Conversely, Biden supporters dismiss calls for his impeachment. They accuse Republicans of distracting from policy issues. They criticize Trump for his alleged role in January 6 and express frustration with Republican obstructionism. Overall, sentiment reflects impatience with polarization and skepticism towards Trump's actions.

Ohio

Criticism of Trump centers on his personal character and past actions, including accusations of domestic abuse and criticism of his business practices. Some defend him, portraying him as a victim of political bias. Others express dissatisfaction with both parties' inability to listen to voters.

Criticism towards Biden focuses on his past actions, policies, family, wealth, and mental capability. There are accusations of hypocrisy and controversies involving his family members. While some appreciate his support of small businesses, overall sentiment remains largely negative towards both Biden and VP Harris.

Wisconsin

Discussion about Trump suggests frustration and disappointment with both his term and the current administration. Some imply trust in government is continuing to fall. There's a notable lack of direct mentions of Trump, indicating a shift in focus away from him as a news driver for Wisconsin voters.

Criticism towards Biden includes accusations of selling out the country, racism, and pedophilia. There is negative sentiment focused on perceived wrongdoings and scandals. However, some voters defend Biden, attributing budget mishandling to Congress and expressing support for his leadership.

Nevada

Discussion of Trump in Nevada includes criticism for past behavior and scandals during his presidency. However, it's less frequent and focused compared to criticisms of Biden. Some voters reference Trump's impeachment and refusal to accept the presidential salary.

Sentiment towards Biden is overwhelmingly negative in Nevada. There are accusations that he is a traitor, a criminal, and dishonest. Criticisms focus on his policies, particularly in foreign affairs and the economy. There are also frequent references to broken promises and negative comparisons with Trump.

North Carolina

Voter discourse about Trump includes criticism for being twice impeached and labeled as a liar and a criminal. However, there's a significant amount of support for his return in 2024, reflected in posts using #Trump2024.

Sentiment towards Biden is largely negative in North Carolina. There’s criticism directed at his policies, decisions, and personal character. Calls for his impeachment and hashtags like #DemocratsAreDestroyingAmerica indicate dissatisfaction with his leadership, along with attacks on VP Harris.

New Hampshire

Online discussion about Trump includes criticism of his character, handling of the pandemic, and faith. But there's also notable support, especially regarding his influence on industries like trucking and calls for him to run again in 2024.

Discussions around Biden are predominantly negative. New Hampshire voters criticize his policy decisions, leadership, and allegations of dementia and manipulation by a "shadow government.” However, some comments express support for his commitment to youth and AAPI communities, democracy, the environment, and optimism for a potential second term.

Michigan

Public sentiment towards Trump in Michigan is mixed but leans negative. There are criticisms of his personal behavior, alleged misconduct, and perceived corruption. However, some express support for his economic policies.

Sentiment towards Biden is predominantly negative. Voters accuse him of incompetence, dishonesty, and senility, along with speculating about his mental state and potential impeachment. Some voters express support for Biden's financial investments in public education and enthusiasm for his re-election.

Arizona

Discourse about Trump includes criticism of his past actions and handling of issues like immigration. Some Arizonans do defend him, claiming he's unfairly and politically targeted, anticipating his potential future leadership.

The sentiment towards Biden in Arizona is predominantly negative. There are calls for impeachment, criticism of policies, and dissatisfaction with the economy. However, some voters express support for the Biden-Harris team, praising VP Harris.

U.S. National Security Issues

Pennsylvania

Sentiment toward Trump on national security is mixed. Some in Pennsylvania express strong support for his policies, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. Others strongly criticize his handling of conflicts and allege ties to Russia.

Discussion about Biden is also mixed, with some supporting his approach to international issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict. Others question his emotional state and raise concerns about controversies like Hunter Biden's alleged laptop scandal.

Georgia

Discussion about Trump focuses on his administration's handling of international affairs. Supporters in Georgia credit him for maintaining peace in the Middle East and criticizing the current state under Biden's leadership. Critics see him as dangerous and unfit, accusing him of inciting insurrection and destabilizing alliances like NATO.

Sentiment toward Biden is mixed, with critics blaming him for perceived threats to Israel's sovereignty and conflicts in Ukraine. Democratic supporters defend his administration's actions and blame problems on the previous administration, particularly Trump's handling of foreign affairs.

Florida

Florida discussion about Trump shows strong support for his stance on Hamas and Israel. Some believe the conflict in the Middle East wouldn't have escalated under his leadership. However, others criticize him for potential ulterior motives in his relationship with Putin and handling of the Ukraine situation.

Sentiment towards Biden is less clear, with some users expressing skepticism about his approach to managing the Israel-Palestine conflict and providing aid to Israel, while others criticize his seeming support for Ukraine amid discussions about the role of Russia and Ukraine in foreign policy dynamics.

Ohio

Discussion about Trump reveals mixed sentiment in Ohio. Some express support for his pro-Israel stance and other foreign policies. Others criticize him for alleged ties to Russia and policies during his administration they believe didn't benefit the United States.

Ohio voters also criticize Biden's leadership, blaming him for a negative international image of America. There is also criticism for instances Hamas support on university campuses. Discussion trends focus on international relations and funding allocation, with questions about why funds are sent to Ukraine amidst domestic issues.

Wisconsin

Sentiment towards Trump is polarized in Wisconsin. Some express staunch support, citing him as a strong ally to Israel. Others criticize him for allegedly prioritizing Russia over America. There are also accusations of political corruption.

Discussions about Biden’s foreign policy center on his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Sentiment seems split between dissatisfied Democrats and supporters. This is encapsulated in the term "Ben-Gvir vote," suggesting alignment with a hardline stance on Israel's security and sovereignty. There are allegations of political corruption, with public scrutiny towards financial influences in Biden’s administration.

Nevada

Sentiment towards Trump on security issues is mixed. Some Nevadans accuse him of colluding with Russia. Detractors express concern about his potential influence on future elections. However, many strongly support him, challenging the narrative that he has ties with Russia and emphasizing his support for Israel.

Discussion about Biden is similarly divided. Some voters show gratitude for his actions, especially regarding Israel and Hamas. Critics disavow his policies, particularly his approach to Ukraine and Israel. They question the accountability of aid provided to Ukraine.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, discussion about Trump is intensely polarized. Supporters praise his leadership skills, saying he will win the 2024 election. They applaud his stance on foreign policy and security. Detractors express concern about the potential for his return and criticize his approach to international relations, particularly with Ukraine and Russia.

References to Biden in the discussion focus on his administration's actions in the Ukraine conflict. Critics argue his policies have been ineffective and led to increased aggression from Russia. However, there are fewer direct sentiments expressed about Biden compared to Trump, indicating the current narrative is more heavily focused on Trump.

New Hampshire

Discussion around Trump includes his relationship with Russia, with some claiming he was "installed" by the country. Others find the idea amusing. His perceived attitude towards Palestine and Israel also generates criticism from anti-Israel activists. There's also criticism of his divisive politics, with some expressing optimism for a future where he is less influential.

Biden's narrative is less prominent in New Hampshire. There are isolated mentions such as an alleged link between Biden and the 1968 PLO terrorists. However, there's less discussion overall. The issue of financial aid to Ukraine and Israel is recurring in the minimal conversation. Some question foreign funding, suggesting the southern border of the U.S is more pressing.

Michigan

Discussion around Trump centers on his perceived relationship with Putin and Russia. There are allegations that he sold out the country and deliberately mishandled Afghanistan to distract from Russia's actions in Ukraine. There are also criticisms of his Middle Eastern policy. However, some Michigan voters express confidence in Trump’s ability to handle international relations if re-elected.

Sentiment towards Biden is also largely negative. There is focus on his administration's role in the Israeli-Hamas conflict and accusations of complicity in the Gaza Genocide. However, some praise his legislative operations and support his foreign aid decisions, indicating some mixed sentiment.

Arizona

For Trump, criticisms often focus on allegations of corruption and criminal behavior, including accusations of selling intelligence to Russia and Saudi Arabia. Despite this, many in Arizona praise his strong support for Israel and his tough stance against Hamas.

Criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy mainly revolve around his handling of international affairs in Ukraine, Russia, and Israel. Some argue his administration's financial aid to Ukraine will lead to more deaths and destruction. Others express disappointment at his perceived ambivalence towards Israel.

As more American voters begin to think about the presidential election this fall, they are beginning to express concerns about political turmoil. MIG Reports analysis shows online discussion about increased turmoil in the form of violent, economic, and political contentions. While Democrats and Republicans typically emphasize different dangers, both sides seem to fear election interference and political violence.

The extent and nature of any pre-election turmoil could significantly impact voter sentiment and turnout, potentially affecting the election's outcome.

Mutual Worries Among Liberals and Conservatives

Most voters are concerned about corruption and unethical behavior within the government. They believe politicians are not acting in the best interest of the public and are instead focused on power and political agendas.

Election Interference

One of the most prominent concerns among all voters, regardless of party, is the possibility of election interference. For Democratic voters, fears seem to center more around potential foreign interference. Republican voters more frequently express skepticism about domestic interference from the Democrat party.

Political Violence and Riots

Memories of January 6 still loom large in the minds of many Democrats. This causes anxiety about the potential for increased “far-right violence,” whether Trump or Biden is reelected. Republicans worry more about politicized violence from leftist activists like Black Lives Matter or anti-Israel protesters. Both sides seem to fear political riots are highly likely no matter who wins the election.

October Surprises

The tradition of October surprises—major news stories breaking shortly before the election—also contributes to worries about election turmoil. Voters fear that such events could sway the election outcome, though there are many speculations as to what an October Suprise might be.

• National sentiment toward the economy, COVID, election integrity and protests have been decreasing in the last two weeks.
• Republicans voice concerns about a potential resurgence of COVID lockdowns and Democrats often worry about election interference.

Black Swan Events Could Bring Upheaval

Black swan events are unpredictable events which have potentially severe consequences. Given their nature, it's challenging to forecast what these could be – but many voters think of recent black swan events like COVID-19.

Some of the black swan events voter mention include:

• Significant escalation in international conflicts
• A global economic crisis
• Environmental or natural disasters
• Another public health or pandemic event

Any major black swan event could dramatically reshape the political landscape and voter sentiment.

Conservatives and right leaning voters are more likely to suggest black swan events like another public health crisis, causing renewed government lockdowns. They are also more likely to mention global economic situations which could severely impact American commerce and quality of life.

Liberal and left leaning voters are more likely to mention wars and conflicts breaking out internationally. They may also be more concerned about potential natural disasters or climate chaos due to climate change.

Republican Fears About Election Turmoil

Republican voters often speak out about potential changes to election laws which they believe could lead to fraud. They cite things like expanded mail-in voting or removal of voter ID laws as election dangers.

These voters also worry about violent protests or riots related to racial or social justice issues. There are also growing concerns about violent anti-Israel protests which could destabilize communities and potentially sway voter sentiment.

While Democrats talk more about misinformation online, some right leaning voters also worry about social media censorship or bias against conservative viewpoints. Many of this group believe that important information was suppressed during the 2020 election which, if voters had known, may have shifted opinions.

Overall, many voters express a lack of trust in the electoral process and legal system. Many Republicans feel the system is corrupt and untrustworthy, expressing disillusionment with the voting process in general. There is a growing sense that voting is becoming futile because of bureaucratic and power-grabbing tactics by corrupt politicians and institutions.

Democratic Fears in 2024

Democrats often voice concern about voter suppression, particularly impacting minority communities. They tend to place this as an important issue which could impede a fair election.

Liberals are also more vocal about the spread of misinformation and disinformation, particularly on social media platforms. This is a shared concern among many voters, but Democrats tend to express more concern about how misinformation may influence voter sentiment and election integrity.

There are some Democratic voters who worry about President Biden's mental fitness, particularly given his age. While this is a worry that many don’t express publicly, those that do fear it could deter Democrats from supporting him in 2024.

Many Democrats also fear the party is not doing enough to address pressing issues like racial and social justice. They fear Biden’s unwillingness to support Palestine or failing to engage with social issues could impact Democratic voter sentiment.

Democratic voters also have deep concerns about the potential impact of a Trump win on the nation's standing in the world. They fear if Trump returns to power, the U.S. may align more with Putin's Russia, which could have consequences for international relations and national security. There is also a strong sentiment among Democratic voters that a potential Trump win could lead to authoritarian rule.

Online discussion about No Labels and its decision not to run a candidate in the 2024 election has been largely overshadowed by conversations about the current administration and former President Trump. Most voters are talking about President Biden and his performance.

No Labels is hardly mentioned, suggesting its failure to run a candidate has no significant impact, or that the movement may not have a strong presence in the public consciousness. This could potentially indicate a lack of awareness or interest in third-party candidates. It could also reflect the current political climate, which appears to be heavily polarized between the Democrats and Republicans.

Although it’s not a large part of online discussion, some view the No Labels decision as a strategic move that could indirectly influence the election outcome. This, in turn, has sparked conversations about RFK Jr.’s potential to gain votes as a third-party candidate.

• In the last 30 days, Trump has led the presidential race with average support around 47%.
• Biden is slightly behind, averaging 44% support nationally, while RFK Jr. Is earning 9% in the last 30 days.

RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. is generating a mixed response from American voters. Some people seem to believe he could be a viable alternative to both the Democratic and Republican candidates. There is a perception that he could draw votes from both sides, particularly from those who are disillusioned with the current political climate.

There is some criticism of RFK Jr.'s candidacy, accusing him of spreading misinformation and being almost as volatile as Trump. Some also feel he made a poor VP selection and believe that is not strong enough to challenge the status quo.

Many voters are talking about RFK Jr.'s criticism of the Biden administration. This criticism, particularly his claim that Biden is a bigger threat to democracy than Trump, is resonating with those critical of Biden's administration.

Some are suggesting RFK Jr. could potentially draw votes away from Biden, thus aiding a potential Trump candidacy. This argument is particularly prevalent among Democrats and Never-Trumpers who fear a repeat of the 2016 election when third-party candidates were perceived to have siphoned votes away from Hillary Clinton.

• RFK Jr.’s approval is hovering around 50%, although discussion about his candidacy is quite low compared to Trump and Biden.

Trump

Trump's supporters continue to show unyielding support, frequently using terms like "MAGA" and "Save America." They often blame Democrats for America's current issues and view Trump as a solution. They often express skepticism about the integrity of the election process, reflecting residual concerns from the 2020 election.

Critics express deep concerns about Trump’s leadership style and policies. They often refer to him as a conman, criticize his Truth Social media platform, and express worries about the erosion of democratic values under his leadership. His recent financial losses have also been a subject of mockery among his critics.

• Trump maintains a solid 50% approval percentage on the topic of his presidential candidacy.
• Discussion around his campaign is significantly higher than RFK Jr., but not quite as high as Biden.

Biden

Biden's candidacy is constantly causing polarized discussion. Many Americans criticize Biden – especially on immigration and border control. They say his administration is responsible for the influx of criminals and illegal immigrants which are hurting the country.

His recent actions have also been extremely polarizing regarding transgender rights and abortion. Conservative and moderate voters view him as being against traditional values.

Many liberals and Democrats defend Biden, arguing he is doing his job diligently and without fuss, focusing on his roles and responsibilities rather than engaging in political dramas.

Voters across the country blame Biden for America's current problems, accusing him of being unqualified and destroying the country. These critics often call for his impeachment, though they seldom detail specific reasons for this.

• With growing concerns about the economy and the border, Biden’s approval dipped to 43% during much of the last week.
• Discussion volume regarding his candidacy is higher than both Trump and RFK Jr., reaching a high of nearly 11,000 on April 4.

General Reactions to the 2024 Presidential Race

Many voters express dissatisfaction with the current state of the country under the Biden administration. They’re particularly vocal on the issues of crime rates, economic struggle, the border, and perceived government dishonesty.

There is also a prevalent theme of skepticism towards the integrity of the 2020 election results. Some assert the election was stolen and express desire for change in the upcoming election. There is distrust among many voters whether the 2024 election outcome will be trustworthy.

In the last several days, there’s been a lot of talk about potential complications of Biden's candidacy in Ohio. Some are expressing varying degrees of concern, criticism, and disbelief.

Overall, voters seem worried about the future of America's political landscape. Some say the country is facing an existential threat from either the Democrats, who they perceive as communists, or from Trump and his supporters, who they perceive as a threat to democracy.

Interestingly, the discourse also illustrates a widespread mistrust in mainstream media, with both sides accusing media outlets of spreading false information regarding the election.

The current political climate is extremely polarized, and people are expressing negativity towards both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The impeachment proceedings against Biden are a major focus with Swing State voters, though they appear to be stalling. Many people express resentment towards this process, viewing it as a waste of time and a risk to national security.

There is also criticism towards Biden's handling of the economy, border control, and healthcare. Some voters express regret for voting for Biden in 2020, citing dissatisfaction with his performance and policy implementation.

Another recurring theme is the state of the economy, with critics pointing to rising inflation, increasing rent, and other cost-of-living challenges. They often refer to these issues as “Bidenomics,” implying dissatisfaction with Biden's economic policies.

There are also personal attacks, deflection, and whataboutism in the discourse, with users accusing each other of bias or ignorance. This suggests a highly polarized and contentious political climate.

Arizona

Arizonans seem greatly unsatisfied with current immigration policies, making it a top issue. Critics argue Biden’s approach is too lenient, citing instances of the administration providing travel “loans” to illegal immigrants as part of a United Nations Migration Scheme. This is seen as a controversial move, particularly when juxtaposed against the economic struggles facing Arizonans.

Economic policy is another critical factor. The Trump and Biden administrations have very different approaches to issues such as taxes, spending, and regulation. The perceived success or failure of these policies can significantly impact public sentiment and influence voter behavior.

• Trump has a slight lead over Biden in Arizona, gaining 45.4% support to Biden’s 44.5%.

Michigan

Two of the most important issues to Michigan voters are Biden’s economy and the lingering influence of Donald Trump on the Republican party.

Michiganders criticize Biden's economic policies for increasing the cost of living. Some express their dissatisfaction with rising prices of everyday commodities and gasoline. The economy will likely be a large factor in the election for Michigan voters.

People are also discussing Trump's ongoing influence within the Republican party. Despite the controversies surrounding his term, he remains a popular figure within the party. This is seen as good or bad, depending on a voter’s viewpoint.

• Trump is leading Biden in Michigan 46.4% to 45.2%.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, voters are expressing concern over election interference and the role of social media platforms in disseminating information. There’s a lot of discourse around a recent TikTok bill and the potential for other platforms like X and Truth Social to be impacted in the future. The question of election interference is paramount in the minds of North Carolinians and will likely influence how they vote.

People are also discussing the role of intelligence agencies in monitoring domestic extremism. There is a growing sentiment that Americans are being unfairly spied upon by their own government, which is driving resentment and disillusionment. This sentiment could play a significant role in the election, particularly if Trump promises to gut the intelligence agencies and repeal the Patriot Act.

Some North Carolina voters express regret for supporting Biden in 2020, citing dissatisfaction with national security and the economy. Others remain steadfast in their support for Biden, arguing that he represents a more stable and compassionate leadership option than Trump.

• Trump holds a lead over Biden in North Carolina, gaining 46.5% support to Biden’s 44.1%.

Nevada

Important issues among Nevada voters include healthcare, particularly concerning the cost of insulin for diabetics. A tweet from Kamala Harris about capping the cost of insulin at $35 a month for seniors indicates the Biden administration is aware of voter sentiment on this topic.

The state of the economy, specifically inflation, is another significant issue for Nevadans. Some blame the current economic state on the Biden administration, referring to the "Biden economy" negatively.

The cognitive health of Joe Biden is another significant factor discussion topic. Some have concern over Biden's cognitive abilities, suggesting that voting for Biden could essentially be voting for Kamala Harris, considering the possibility of him not being able to complete his term.

There are some Nevadans who indicate dissatisfaction and regret about voting for Biden in 2020. Some express disappointment with Biden's perceived lack of progress or negative impact on the economy, while others voice concern over his cognitive health.

Among Trump supporters, there is celebration over some charges against him being dismissed, indicating strong support for a second term.

• Trump holds a 4.5-point lead over Biden in Nevada, gaining 46.5% support.

Wisconsin

Donald Trump’s supporters appear to be unwavering, despite criticism and allegations of self-serving policies. Their loyalty seems to be based on the belief that Trump's policies align with their own interests and values more than those of any other candidate. This is revealed in Trump’s solid lead against Biden in Wisconsin.

In contrast, Biden supporters appear to be more focused on the broader implications of his presidency, emphasizing issues such as party unity, national stability, and global justice.

However, there is a criticism that these supporters are prioritizing Biden over these broader issues, which could potentially lead to his defeat.

Discussion suggests there may be some resentment or regret among Wisconsinites about voting for Biden in 2020. However, this seems to be largely overshadowed by the intense loyalty of both the Trump and Biden supporters. Another important factor for Wisconsin voters is the perceived threat to freedom of speech, which Trump is using to appeal to younger voters.

• Trump has a solid upper hand in Wisconsin, leading Biden by 6.5 points with 47% support to Biden’s 41.5%.

Georgia

Georgia could potentially pose a problem for Trump in the general election. MIG Reports data suggests most Nikki Haley supporters, who previously backed Trump, will likely vote for Biden. This shift could significantly influence the potential re-election of Biden.

Georgians are also concerned about issues like a potential TikTok ban and the perceived neglect of key social issues such as child mortality. These issues may work against Biden.

Biden’s potential impeachment also appears to be a factor for Georgia voters. The GOP’s persistence in pursuing impeachment is met with criticism and ridicule. Many Georgians seem to view impeachment attempts as desperate attempts to gain votes.

Election interference is another major issue, with accusations that Trump paid foreign agents to lie about Biden, attempting to affect the election. These contentious allegations contribute to the overall divisive and tense atmosphere.

• Trumps holds a slight lead over Biden in Georgia with 44.7% support to Biden’s 43.1%.

Pennsylvania

Critics of Trump in Pennsylvania often depict him as a wannabe dictator, pointing to his alleged attempts to subvert democratic norms. Accusations of corruption within his family, particularly Jared Kushner's dealings with Saudi Arabia, also appear to be a major point of contention.

His handling of foreign relations, particularly with Russia and Ukraine, is another frequently raised issue. There are calls for investigations into the Trump family's profits from the presidency, and some suggest Trump may be aiming for absolute immunity, which they fear could lead to dictatorial rule.

Trump supporters seem to dismiss allegations of Russian collusion as a Democrat hoax. They criticize the investigation into Trump's alleged influence peddling as politically motivated.

Some Pennsylvania voters are questioning Biden’s memory and fitness for presidency. His family's alleged involvement in influence peddling is also a point of concern, with some calling for an investigation into these matters.

• Despite vocal critics of Trump in Pennsylvania, he currently leads Biden with 47% to 42% support.

Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced her decision to not pursue re-election in 2024, igniting an explosion of political commentary across the country as to which Senate front runner from the Republican and Democratic Party, Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego, would benefit more from the maverick Senator’s departure. NRSC Chair Senator Steve Daines (ND) responded in a press release saying, “With recent polling showing Kyrsten Sinema pulling far more Republican voters than Democrat voters, her decision to retire improves Kari Lake’s opportunity to flip this seat.” Daines’ Democrat counterpart, Democrat Senate Chair Senator Gary Peters (MI) offered a similar statement of confidence, telling Axios, “​​We were gonna win regardless, but now we even have a stronger hand.” However, MIG Report’s analysis of Arizonans discussing Lake and Gallego online adds to a series of indicators that Lake may have an early edge that spells defeat for Gallego.

By the Numbers

Since Sinema’s departure, Lake has averaged 53% to Gallego’s 47% in head-to-head support analysis, which weighs the volume of each candidate’s ratio of positive to negative comments. 

Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego 3/5 - 3/7

• Over the last 30 days, Lake’s approval on immigration has been stronger than Gallego’s. Immigration promises to be a key issue on the ballot in 2024, especially in a border state like Arizona..
  
• Among Arizonans discussing Kari Lake and immigration policy online, MIG Reports found Lake earns 49% approval.
  
• Meanwhile, among Arizonans mentioning Gallego and immigration online, MIG Reports shows Gallego receiving a lower approval rating of 43%.

Lake’s Advantage: Die-Hards

More promising for Lake may be her enthusiasm advantage. Poll after poll suggests that turn out could be low in November. A recent New York Times/Sienna poll showed just 23% of Democratic Primary voters were excited about Biden. Worse, a Harvard poll showed less than half of young Americans plan to vote in 2024. While Lake’s populist streak has been labeled a liability, her die-hard base, driven by anger over mass migration, doubts over election integrity, and the Biden Presidency, could be her biggest strength.

• Over the last 30 days, Lake earned 5,565 direct mentions online in Arizona, while Gallego earned 3,666.
  
• This continues to be a theme for Lake month after month. In January, her advantage in online mentions was 7,079 to Gallego’s 2,986.

What They’re Saying

MIG Reports analysis of the most frequent comment themes both candidates receive online paints a picture of a broader narrative that could shape how Arizonans vote. The battle over digital political landscapes is increasingly important as more Americans turn away from prime time TV for their news to social media.

• MIG Reports found that while detractors label Gallego “a socialist or communist” and “criticize his extreme left policies,” messaging from supporters may soften Gallego’s appeal to moderate Republicans and McCain Republicans.
  
• Gallego’s supporters online highlight Gallego's military service and see him as a key asset to helping “defeat MAGA influence in Arizona.” This messaging is more consistent with Biden Democrat messaging than a Bernie Sanders or “Squad” supporting Leftist.
  
• Conversely, Kari Lake supporters champion her “support for her conservative policies and her alignment with Trump.” They also believe “she will protect Arizona from becoming too progressive.” This messaging is more palatable to Sinema supporters or moderate Republicans than the former.

Looking Ahead

Sinema's decision not to seek re-election represents yet another twist in an election that looks to be unlike any in recent years. While both factions of the American political spectrum sought to assure voters and donors that Sinema’s retreat is yet another reason to cast a vote or make a donation, early signs show Kari Lake may have a series of advantages. More importantly for Lake, the factors that give her this edge show no signs of dissipating.

• Lake’s base has been fervent since 2022, after months of legal battles over election integrity claims, and the fervor likely won’t stop.
  
• After years of Democrats claiming immigration is a nonissue and mocking Republicans for exaggerating the border crisis, convincing voters that “actually it’s Democrats who are serious on immigration” will be a herculean feat. This suggests Lake’s stronger approval ratings over Gallego on the key issue of immigration will be very difficult to reverse.
  
• Worse, Gallego will have to boost a depressed Democrat electorate alone, with Biden doing little to galvanize the vote like Obama did in 2008, when he helped deliver a super majority in the Senate. In turn, Lake appears to have this advantage in Donald Trump, who brings a boost to down ballot Republicans who otherwise struggle in Midterms and Special Elections.
  
• The final and perhaps key factor is whether McCain Republicans and Sinema Independent supporters will vote for Lake, who once shunned McCain voters, or vote for Gallego, a (suspiciously recent) former member of the extreme left Progressive Caucus. A third option for this segment of Arizona voters represents yet another advantage for Lake: don’t bother to vote at all.

In last night’s Michigan primaries, Donald Trump and Joe Biden each triumphed within their respective primary contests, but several key factors spell trouble for Biden’s re-election odds in the crucial swing state.

Trump garnered 138,000 more votes in the Republican contest than Biden's final tally in the Democratic primary. Worse for the 81-year-old President, pro-Palestinian efforts to lodge a protest vote under "Uncommitted" received more than 100,000 votes. While many in the mainstream media have scrambled to either downplay or outright deny a red light flashing moment for Biden, the uncommitted vote came just 54,000 away from Joe Biden’s margin of victory in Michigan in 2020.

Media Intelligence Group’s analysis of online discourse surrounding Trump and Biden in the Great Lakes State finds that Biden is indeed in serious trouble, with Trump poised to make perhaps one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. political history.

Dark Cloud Follows Biden Online

MIG’s analysis of online discourse directed at Biden by Michiganders finds a theme of doubt about Biden’s ability to serve as commander in chief and the Democratic nominee headed into November:

• Before uncommitted’s strong showing, MIG found, “users believe Biden could lose the primary due to dissatisfaction among certain voter groups.” And many users referring to him as "Genocide Joe.”
  
• Others highlight Biden’s age and acuity, a subject under increased scrutiny since the damning Hurr report dropped in early February. “There are discussions about Biden's ability to deliver the State of the Union address, with some questioning his mental fitness.” Some “suggest that Biden's lifespan could be a concern, questioning the wisdom of voting for him.”
  
• MIG found he still has ardent supporters, despite the chaos following Biden. “Some feel Biden and Kamala Harris will fight for them and plan to vote for them” in 2024.

Boiling Anger

Analysis of online discourse from Trump supporters in Michigan finds a theme of anger over both the past and the present that could motivate them to push Trump over the finish line in 2024.

• MIG’s analysis picks up discourse centering on the 2020 election results including, “allegations of election fraud,” and “users suggesting that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.”

Others are enraged at the current state of America under Biden, demanding immediate action before November.

• Frequently, Republicans lean into removing Biden now, with online comments “demanding the impeachment of Biden.”
  
• Biden’s weakest point and highest policy priority among a plurality of Americans, immigration, generates anger tooMIG found, “frustration with Biden's immigration policy, and accusations of him allowing an influx of undocumented immigrants into the country.”
  
• Others focus on increasingly tragic human stories of Biden’s immigration policy. “There are multiple references to an incident involving the slaughter of Laken Riley, with users accusing Biden of complicity.”
  
• Despite Biden defenders in mainstream media portending the economy is in great shape, Michiganders remain unconvinced of Bidenomics success and, “express dissatisfaction with his economic policies.”

While anger is a serious theme found in discourse by Trump supporters in Michigan, hope drives support for Trump’s re-election as well.

• Pro-Trump Michigan discourse finds many viewing his return as a solution to global chaos, voicing that, "If Trump had won a second term, he would have taken stronger action against China.” And their desire for him, “to be elected in 2024 and end wars.”
  
• Democrats remain critical of the former President, with some suggesting that, “Trump is pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.”
  

By the Numbers

With just nine months until election day, MIG’s analysis of head-to-head support online between Joe Biden and Donald Trump spells a tight final vote count in November.

• Today, Trump leads Biden 47% to 44% in Michigan, with RFK Jr. taking 9% of support.

Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - February 28

• Over the last 14 days, Biden’s lead in support versus Trump has crumbled, falling from an average of 50% to Trump’s 43% between February 15 and 21,to Trump capturing an average of 46% support to Biden’s 44% between February 22 and 29.

Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - last 14 days

• MIG’s analysisduring this period finds that Trump does not necessarily dominate Biden by garnering more positive indications of support. In fact, in individual candidate analysis, each held 45% approval between Febraury 15 and 21, when Biden’s support began to give way to Trump.
  
• What makes the difference is disparity in the volume of negativity directed at each candidate. Biden earned more negative than positive comments on Frebruary 17 and 18, and his support fell by7% against Trump.
  
• During this time frame, Biden’s ratio of positive comments to negative comments found the incumbent at -149, with Trump lower at -139. This implies a conclusion that Biden’s ultimate weakness in Michigan isn’t voters liking Trump more, but their anger towards Biden is stronger than dislike for Trump.

Looking Ahead

What is unfolding in Michigan spells potential disaster in a must-win state for Biden. Despite being thousands of miles from the border, MIG’s data shows that all states are increasingly focusing on immigration, coming to grips with the reality that every state is a border state in Joe Biden’s America.

It is nearly impossible for the Biden campaign to celebrate winning Michigan with so many cracks being revealed in the President’s 2020 winning strategy. Crucial minority groups essential to winning Democrat coalitions are fraying, evidenced by the substantial "Uncommitted" protest turnout. Democrats almost always beat Republicans in non-general election turnout, yet Trump’s turnout was more than Biden’s by 135,000.

Growing doubts on Biden’s electability, coupled with ever heightening scrutiny of Biden's policies and fitness for office contrasts sharply with the fervent support Trump enjoysAll this is fueled by a blend of anger and hope. As election day looms, the dynamics in Michigan come into focus, where dissatisfaction with the incumbent and a growing appetite for change sets the stage for what could be the most historic political comeback since Nixon’s return to the White House in 1969.

After a decisive Trump win in South Carolina over Nikki Haley, 59.8% to 39.5%, GOP voters seem to be doubling down on MAGA sentiments. MIG data showed support numbers very close to the GOP primary results in Haley’s home state.

A CNN exit poll showed that more than 4 in 10 GOP voters described themselves as MAGA, and even more supported Trump without calling themselves MAGA. This aligns with MIG data, which showed Trump leading well in the 60-70% approval range for much of the 30 days prior to the primary.

• Two days prior to the primary vote, MIG data showed Trump at 60% and 59% support.
• Nikki Haley earned 41% and 42% on those same two days.
• On the day of the election, MIG data showed Trump at 58% and Haley at 42%, a two-point difference with actual vote results.

GOP Support for Trump and Haley

South Carolina Primary Results

South Carolina Republicans Object to Dems Voting in the Primary

Leading up to the South Carolina primary, support for Trump was as high as 67%, lowering slightly by the time votes were cast. Some conservatives and MAGA Republicans express concerns over Democrats voting in the primary to weaken Trump support.

Many GOP voters are quite satisfied with the results, often citing Trump’s victory as a testament to his enduring popularity in the party. But there is also a degree of skepticism about elections and a belief in unfair tactics by Democrats.

Some voters allege that Democrats and Independents voted in the primaries to harm Trump's chances in the general election. They argue that Haley's votes were inflated by these individuals, and her actual support within the GOP is not as strong as the results imply.

Many MAGA voters believe the primary was influenced by liberals attempting to interfere with GOP party politics. They point to precincts where Haley received more votes than Trump did in the 2020 general election as evidence of this alleged infiltration.

The Fading Voices of Nikki Haley Supporters

Those who oppose Trump's win express a strong aversion towards his potential return to power. They highlight his inability to appeal to a significant portion of the Republican party, suggesting that Trump's win might not necessarily translate into success in a general election.

It seems that Nikki Haley supporters are more anti-Trump than pro-Haley. They tend to express a belief that his victory signifies a further entrenchment of divisive politics and a step away from more moderate, bipartisan approaches to governance.

More Popular Views of Haley Among the GOP Base

A lot of Republicans are also fiercely critical of Nikki Haley, accusing her of being a traitor to the Republican party and selling out to the Democrats.

There’s a clear recurring theme of voters feeling their concerns about illegal immigration are being ignored by politicians and the media. GOP voters feel this issue is directly impacting their lives and express a sense of being ignored by politicians like Haley. This is likely another factor that contributed to Trump's Soth Carolina win.

A significant portion of the online conversation is dominated by those criticizing Haley, highlighting her performance as divisive within the party. They accuse her of self-sabotaging her own career and pandering to liberals.

Critics emphasize Haley's perceived inability to win primaries, reiterating that she could not event defeat Trump even in her home state. They also accuse her of focusing on attacking Trump rather than proposing her own strategies or solutions.

Red States Double Down on Trump in 2024

Many conservative voters in South Carolina express satisfaction with Trump's triumph. They see it as a referendum on the “woke mind virus” that imposes progressive ideologies concerning race, gender, and social justice. Many red state voters see Trump as a bulwark against these ideologies, which they believe are eroding traditional American values.

Many in the South Carolina GOP are ardent Trump supporters who believe that the former president has been unfairly targeted by the legal system and the media. They express that they are rallying behind Trump with fervor, seeing him as a victim of a corrupt system. They argue that the accusations and legal cases against Trump are either baseless or politically motivated.

Republicans are showing strong support in South Carolina, leading up to the general election.

• Republicans gained a 30-day high of 51% support in South Carolina compared to a Democrat high of 45%.
• The Republican margin showed a 10-point gap between Republicans and Democrats on the day of the GOP primary.

Party Support in South Carolina

Donald Trump’s recent comments at a South Carolina rally on NATO and Russia sparked a media firestorm with some claiming Republicans are now doing damage control over national security issues. But new reports indicate swing state voters share the former president’s sentiment that NATO countries share the responsibility for buffering Russia.

Full Story

Speaking at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, President Trump recounted a conversation during his first term with an unnamed NATO leader. The former President told the crowd that he was asked what the U.S. would do if a NATO nation failed to uphold the alliance's mandatory two percent defense spending commitment. Trump’s reply: such a nation would have to confront the possibility of Russia acting with impunity.

Mainstream media and political elites were quick to decry Trump's remarks. President Biden criticized Trump's remarks as "un-American," a frequent knee-jerk against Trump, known for challenging establishment norms. Adding to the chorus, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed concern to NBC News that Trump’s comments would damage U.S. credibility among NATO countries.

Yet voters perceive the substance of Trump’s remarks: only 11 NATO nations meet NATO defense funding commitments, with 24 others falling short, despite the war in Ukraine being at NATO’s doorstep. Are President Trump’s stances on international issues in step with American sentiment?

Teflon Don

NPR reported that Republicans were playing “Clean Up on Aisle Trump,” in the wake of the former president’s comments. Yet The Media Intelligence Group, which analyzes social media data to provide AI-driven public sentiment insights, finds that Americans see nothing to clean up at all.

Nationally, Trump’s approval hasn’t budged since his NATO comments, standing at 47% in the seven days prior to his South Carolina rally and holding fast at 47% the following week.

Trump's ratings remained close to Biden's on issues relevant to NATO. Biden holds 47% to 46% for Trump on approval in online debates involving Ukraine, while Biden scores 48% on national security issues to Trump’s 46%.

Meanwhile the onslaught of negative press had no effect on Trump’s overall approval ratings.

Since the rally, Trump's ratings remain close to Biden's on NATO-specific discussions as well. Both Trump and Biden hold 47% approval in online debates involving Russia, while Biden scores 48% on National Security issues to Trump’s 47%. However, Biden faces difficulty in swing states over NATO and security issues.

Stronger Where it Counts, Swing States

Critically, within five days of Trump’s South Carolina rally, Trump retained his lead over Biden in head-to-head support in a majority of key swing states, indicating Trump may be in touch with voters in those states:

• AZ: Trump 48%, Biden 43%
• NV: Trump 48%, Biden 41%
• PA: Trump 47%, Biden 44%
• GA: Trump 47%, Biden 43%
• WI: Trump 44%, Biden 46%

Note: Includes independent candidate RFK Jr., sample size minimum of 1,000 respondents per candidate in each state.

Meanwhile, sentiment over the last seven days in Arizona, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania showed Biden trending down 3% on national security issues. Biden dipped to 40% compared to Trump’s 43%.

Biden remained only marginally higher on Russia, tracking at 45% to Trump’s 43%, a surprisingly close divide on a topic establishment media has sought to frame as an absolute negative for Trump since 2016. Meanwhile, Biden is losing his grip on Ukraine in swing state favorability, where Trump holds 44% approval to Biden’s 41%.

Forging Ahead

The episode typifies the political pattern that has emerged since Trump entered the political arena. Trump built a coalition confronting an entrenched Washington establishment, which in turn has attempted to characterize challenges to its agenda as a five-alarm fire. But is there a crisis? Americans outside the Beltway apparently either align with Trump’s America First outlook or reject media and establishment crisis narratives.

Swing state voters are instead weighing whether America’s security alliances benefit Americans. With the election nine months away, Trump remains in a dominant position, with opposition still struggling to crack the MAGA code.

As speculation grows about who might be President Trump's potential running mate in the next election, online discussions reflect a diverse range of sentiments towards various candidates. Among the potential vice presidential picks, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, and RFK Jr. have emerged as notable contenders. However, the online discourse reveals a mixture of positive and negative opinions surrounding these individuals.

Discussion Snapshot

Vivek Ramaswamy dominates online discussions. Supporters praise his intelligence, well-thought-out plans, and alignment with the 'America First' agenda. However, concerns about his loyalty to Trump and the 'MAGA' movement also emerge, creating a split in public opinion.

Elise Stefanik is consistently the 2nd most talked about candidate. Elise is viewed negatively by some and many have expressed doubt about her chances of being selected as VP.

Tucker Carlson has spiked in mentions following his controversial interview with Vladimir Putin. His qualifications for VP are frequently questioned.

Support Score

Vivek Ramaswamy: Mixed Reviews on a Potential Trump Running Mate

Vivek Ramaswamy emerges as a candidate with mostly positive sentiments among online users. Supporters express excitement and view him as a valuable asset, praising his intelligence and well-thought-out plans. However, detractors argue that he may not be ready for the VP position, with some questioning his loyalty to the MAGA agenda. The division in opinions suggests that while Vivek has a base of supporters, concerns about his readiness for the role remain.

Elise Stefanik: A Sellout or a Potential VP?

Elise Stefanik, on the other hand, faces predominantly negative sentiments. Labeled as a sellout to Donald Trump, online users question her qualities outside of her support for Israel and cast doubt on her chances of being chosen as Trump's VP. The online community appears skeptical of Stefanik's credibility as a potential running mate.

Tucker Carlson: Doubts on Qualifications for VP

Despite not being a candidate, Tucker Carlson's name surfaces in discussions, with users questioning his qualifications for the VP role. One user comments on his journalistic background, emphasizing that it doesn't automatically qualify him for the position. The sentiment suggests skepticism about the idea of Carlson as a potential VP.

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis: Mixed Opinions

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both elicit mixed sentiments. While some users propose that Haley should work with Democrats for a compromise ticket, there's no strong support for her as a VP candidate. DeSantis, on the other hand, receives indications of support, with users suggesting they would vote for Trump if he chooses DeSantis. However, doubts linger, with some users considering alternatives if DeSantis is not selected as the VP.

Kristi Noem: A Potential Trailblazer with Positive Support

Kristi Noem emerges as a potential favorite among online discussions. Users express strong support for her as Trump's VP, even envisioning her as the first female US President. Noem's positive reception indicates that she resonates well with online communities, positioning her as a potential trailblazer.

JD Vance: Mixed Sentiments and Criticism

JD Vance receives both positive and negative sentiments. Supporters see him as meeting all the requirements for Trump's VP, praising his loyalty, brilliance, toughness, energy, and patriotism. However, critics label him as someone willing to say anything to become VP.

Conclusion

As the online discussions unfold, it is evident that there is no definitive front-runner among the potential vice presidential nominees for President Trump. Mixed opinions surround each candidate, reflecting the complexities of choosing a running mate who can unite Trump's base. While some candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Kristi Noem enjoy positive sentiments, doubts persist about their suitability for the role. As discussions continue to evolve, it remains uncertain which candidate will ultimately garner the most support and become the favored choice for Vice President in the eyes of the public.