Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced her decision to not pursue re-election in 2024, igniting an explosion of political commentary across the country as to which Senate front runner from the Republican and Democratic Party, Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego, would benefit more from the maverick Senator’s departure. NRSC Chair Senator Steve Daines (ND) responded in a press release saying, “With recent polling showing Kyrsten Sinema pulling far more Republican voters than Democrat voters, her decision to retire improves Kari Lake’s opportunity to flip this seat.” Daines’ Democrat counterpart, Democrat Senate Chair Senator Gary Peters (MI) offered a similar statement of confidence, telling Axios, “​​We were gonna win regardless, but now we even have a stronger hand.” However, MIG Report’s analysis of Arizonans discussing Lake and Gallego online adds to a series of indicators that Lake may have an early edge that spells defeat for Gallego.

By the Numbers

Since Sinema’s departure, Lake has averaged 53% to Gallego’s 47% in head-to-head support analysis, which weighs the volume of each candidate’s ratio of positive to negative comments. 

Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego 3/5 - 3/7

• Over the last 30 days, Lake’s approval on immigration has been stronger than Gallego’s. Immigration promises to be a key issue on the ballot in 2024, especially in a border state like Arizona..
  
• Among Arizonans discussing Kari Lake and immigration policy online, MIG Reports found Lake earns 49% approval.
  
• Meanwhile, among Arizonans mentioning Gallego and immigration online, MIG Reports shows Gallego receiving a lower approval rating of 43%.

Lake’s Advantage: Die-Hards

More promising for Lake may be her enthusiasm advantage. Poll after poll suggests that turn out could be low in November. A recent New York Times/Sienna poll showed just 23% of Democratic Primary voters were excited about Biden. Worse, a Harvard poll showed less than half of young Americans plan to vote in 2024. While Lake’s populist streak has been labeled a liability, her die-hard base, driven by anger over mass migration, doubts over election integrity, and the Biden Presidency, could be her biggest strength.

• Over the last 30 days, Lake earned 5,565 direct mentions online in Arizona, while Gallego earned 3,666.
  
• This continues to be a theme for Lake month after month. In January, her advantage in online mentions was 7,079 to Gallego’s 2,986.

What They’re Saying

MIG Reports analysis of the most frequent comment themes both candidates receive online paints a picture of a broader narrative that could shape how Arizonans vote. The battle over digital political landscapes is increasingly important as more Americans turn away from prime time TV for their news to social media.

• MIG Reports found that while detractors label Gallego “a socialist or communist” and “criticize his extreme left policies,” messaging from supporters may soften Gallego’s appeal to moderate Republicans and McCain Republicans.
  
• Gallego’s supporters online highlight Gallego's military service and see him as a key asset to helping “defeat MAGA influence in Arizona.” This messaging is more consistent with Biden Democrat messaging than a Bernie Sanders or “Squad” supporting Leftist.
  
• Conversely, Kari Lake supporters champion her “support for her conservative policies and her alignment with Trump.” They also believe “she will protect Arizona from becoming too progressive.” This messaging is more palatable to Sinema supporters or moderate Republicans than the former.

Looking Ahead

Sinema's decision not to seek re-election represents yet another twist in an election that looks to be unlike any in recent years. While both factions of the American political spectrum sought to assure voters and donors that Sinema’s retreat is yet another reason to cast a vote or make a donation, early signs show Kari Lake may have a series of advantages. More importantly for Lake, the factors that give her this edge show no signs of dissipating.

• Lake’s base has been fervent since 2022, after months of legal battles over election integrity claims, and the fervor likely won’t stop.
  
• After years of Democrats claiming immigration is a nonissue and mocking Republicans for exaggerating the border crisis, convincing voters that “actually it’s Democrats who are serious on immigration” will be a herculean feat. This suggests Lake’s stronger approval ratings over Gallego on the key issue of immigration will be very difficult to reverse.
  
• Worse, Gallego will have to boost a depressed Democrat electorate alone, with Biden doing little to galvanize the vote like Obama did in 2008, when he helped deliver a super majority in the Senate. In turn, Lake appears to have this advantage in Donald Trump, who brings a boost to down ballot Republicans who otherwise struggle in Midterms and Special Elections.
  
• The final and perhaps key factor is whether McCain Republicans and Sinema Independent supporters will vote for Lake, who once shunned McCain voters, or vote for Gallego, a (suspiciously recent) former member of the extreme left Progressive Caucus. A third option for this segment of Arizona voters represents yet another advantage for Lake: don’t bother to vote at all.

In last night’s Michigan primaries, Donald Trump and Joe Biden each triumphed within their respective primary contests, but several key factors spell trouble for Biden’s re-election odds in the crucial swing state.

Trump garnered 138,000 more votes in the Republican contest than Biden's final tally in the Democratic primary. Worse for the 81-year-old President, pro-Palestinian efforts to lodge a protest vote under "Uncommitted" received more than 100,000 votes. While many in the mainstream media have scrambled to either downplay or outright deny a red light flashing moment for Biden, the uncommitted vote came just 54,000 away from Joe Biden’s margin of victory in Michigan in 2020.

Media Intelligence Group’s analysis of online discourse surrounding Trump and Biden in the Great Lakes State finds that Biden is indeed in serious trouble, with Trump poised to make perhaps one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. political history.

Dark Cloud Follows Biden Online

MIG’s analysis of online discourse directed at Biden by Michiganders finds a theme of doubt about Biden’s ability to serve as commander in chief and the Democratic nominee headed into November:

• Before uncommitted’s strong showing, MIG found, “users believe Biden could lose the primary due to dissatisfaction among certain voter groups.” And many users referring to him as "Genocide Joe.”
  
• Others highlight Biden’s age and acuity, a subject under increased scrutiny since the damning Hurr report dropped in early February. “There are discussions about Biden's ability to deliver the State of the Union address, with some questioning his mental fitness.” Some “suggest that Biden's lifespan could be a concern, questioning the wisdom of voting for him.”
  
• MIG found he still has ardent supporters, despite the chaos following Biden. “Some feel Biden and Kamala Harris will fight for them and plan to vote for them” in 2024.

Boiling Anger

Analysis of online discourse from Trump supporters in Michigan finds a theme of anger over both the past and the present that could motivate them to push Trump over the finish line in 2024.

• MIG’s analysis picks up discourse centering on the 2020 election results including, “allegations of election fraud,” and “users suggesting that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.”

Others are enraged at the current state of America under Biden, demanding immediate action before November.

• Frequently, Republicans lean into removing Biden now, with online comments “demanding the impeachment of Biden.”
  
• Biden’s weakest point and highest policy priority among a plurality of Americans, immigration, generates anger tooMIG found, “frustration with Biden's immigration policy, and accusations of him allowing an influx of undocumented immigrants into the country.”
  
• Others focus on increasingly tragic human stories of Biden’s immigration policy. “There are multiple references to an incident involving the slaughter of Laken Riley, with users accusing Biden of complicity.”
  
• Despite Biden defenders in mainstream media portending the economy is in great shape, Michiganders remain unconvinced of Bidenomics success and, “express dissatisfaction with his economic policies.”

While anger is a serious theme found in discourse by Trump supporters in Michigan, hope drives support for Trump’s re-election as well.

• Pro-Trump Michigan discourse finds many viewing his return as a solution to global chaos, voicing that, "If Trump had won a second term, he would have taken stronger action against China.” And their desire for him, “to be elected in 2024 and end wars.”
  
• Democrats remain critical of the former President, with some suggesting that, “Trump is pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.”
  

By the Numbers

With just nine months until election day, MIG’s analysis of head-to-head support online between Joe Biden and Donald Trump spells a tight final vote count in November.

• Today, Trump leads Biden 47% to 44% in Michigan, with RFK Jr. taking 9% of support.

Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - February 28

• Over the last 14 days, Biden’s lead in support versus Trump has crumbled, falling from an average of 50% to Trump’s 43% between February 15 and 21,to Trump capturing an average of 46% support to Biden’s 44% between February 22 and 29.

Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - last 14 days

• MIG’s analysisduring this period finds that Trump does not necessarily dominate Biden by garnering more positive indications of support. In fact, in individual candidate analysis, each held 45% approval between Febraury 15 and 21, when Biden’s support began to give way to Trump.
  
• What makes the difference is disparity in the volume of negativity directed at each candidate. Biden earned more negative than positive comments on Frebruary 17 and 18, and his support fell by7% against Trump.
  
• During this time frame, Biden’s ratio of positive comments to negative comments found the incumbent at -149, with Trump lower at -139. This implies a conclusion that Biden’s ultimate weakness in Michigan isn’t voters liking Trump more, but their anger towards Biden is stronger than dislike for Trump.

Looking Ahead

What is unfolding in Michigan spells potential disaster in a must-win state for Biden. Despite being thousands of miles from the border, MIG’s data shows that all states are increasingly focusing on immigration, coming to grips with the reality that every state is a border state in Joe Biden’s America.

It is nearly impossible for the Biden campaign to celebrate winning Michigan with so many cracks being revealed in the President’s 2020 winning strategy. Crucial minority groups essential to winning Democrat coalitions are fraying, evidenced by the substantial "Uncommitted" protest turnout. Democrats almost always beat Republicans in non-general election turnout, yet Trump’s turnout was more than Biden’s by 135,000.

Growing doubts on Biden’s electability, coupled with ever heightening scrutiny of Biden's policies and fitness for office contrasts sharply with the fervent support Trump enjoysAll this is fueled by a blend of anger and hope. As election day looms, the dynamics in Michigan come into focus, where dissatisfaction with the incumbent and a growing appetite for change sets the stage for what could be the most historic political comeback since Nixon’s return to the White House in 1969.

After a decisive Trump win in South Carolina over Nikki Haley, 59.8% to 39.5%, GOP voters seem to be doubling down on MAGA sentiments. MIG data showed support numbers very close to the GOP primary results in Haley’s home state.

A CNN exit poll showed that more than 4 in 10 GOP voters described themselves as MAGA, and even more supported Trump without calling themselves MAGA. This aligns with MIG data, which showed Trump leading well in the 60-70% approval range for much of the 30 days prior to the primary.

• Two days prior to the primary vote, MIG data showed Trump at 60% and 59% support.
• Nikki Haley earned 41% and 42% on those same two days.
• On the day of the election, MIG data showed Trump at 58% and Haley at 42%, a two-point difference with actual vote results.

GOP Support for Trump and Haley

South Carolina Primary Results

South Carolina Republicans Object to Dems Voting in the Primary

Leading up to the South Carolina primary, support for Trump was as high as 67%, lowering slightly by the time votes were cast. Some conservatives and MAGA Republicans express concerns over Democrats voting in the primary to weaken Trump support.

Many GOP voters are quite satisfied with the results, often citing Trump’s victory as a testament to his enduring popularity in the party. But there is also a degree of skepticism about elections and a belief in unfair tactics by Democrats.

Some voters allege that Democrats and Independents voted in the primaries to harm Trump's chances in the general election. They argue that Haley's votes were inflated by these individuals, and her actual support within the GOP is not as strong as the results imply.

Many MAGA voters believe the primary was influenced by liberals attempting to interfere with GOP party politics. They point to precincts where Haley received more votes than Trump did in the 2020 general election as evidence of this alleged infiltration.

The Fading Voices of Nikki Haley Supporters

Those who oppose Trump's win express a strong aversion towards his potential return to power. They highlight his inability to appeal to a significant portion of the Republican party, suggesting that Trump's win might not necessarily translate into success in a general election.

It seems that Nikki Haley supporters are more anti-Trump than pro-Haley. They tend to express a belief that his victory signifies a further entrenchment of divisive politics and a step away from more moderate, bipartisan approaches to governance.

More Popular Views of Haley Among the GOP Base

A lot of Republicans are also fiercely critical of Nikki Haley, accusing her of being a traitor to the Republican party and selling out to the Democrats.

There’s a clear recurring theme of voters feeling their concerns about illegal immigration are being ignored by politicians and the media. GOP voters feel this issue is directly impacting their lives and express a sense of being ignored by politicians like Haley. This is likely another factor that contributed to Trump's Soth Carolina win.

A significant portion of the online conversation is dominated by those criticizing Haley, highlighting her performance as divisive within the party. They accuse her of self-sabotaging her own career and pandering to liberals.

Critics emphasize Haley's perceived inability to win primaries, reiterating that she could not event defeat Trump even in her home state. They also accuse her of focusing on attacking Trump rather than proposing her own strategies or solutions.

Red States Double Down on Trump in 2024

Many conservative voters in South Carolina express satisfaction with Trump's triumph. They see it as a referendum on the “woke mind virus” that imposes progressive ideologies concerning race, gender, and social justice. Many red state voters see Trump as a bulwark against these ideologies, which they believe are eroding traditional American values.

Many in the South Carolina GOP are ardent Trump supporters who believe that the former president has been unfairly targeted by the legal system and the media. They express that they are rallying behind Trump with fervor, seeing him as a victim of a corrupt system. They argue that the accusations and legal cases against Trump are either baseless or politically motivated.

Republicans are showing strong support in South Carolina, leading up to the general election.

• Republicans gained a 30-day high of 51% support in South Carolina compared to a Democrat high of 45%.
• The Republican margin showed a 10-point gap between Republicans and Democrats on the day of the GOP primary.

Party Support in South Carolina

Donald Trump’s recent comments at a South Carolina rally on NATO and Russia sparked a media firestorm with some claiming Republicans are now doing damage control over national security issues. But new reports indicate swing state voters share the former president’s sentiment that NATO countries share the responsibility for buffering Russia.

Full Story

Speaking at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, President Trump recounted a conversation during his first term with an unnamed NATO leader. The former President told the crowd that he was asked what the U.S. would do if a NATO nation failed to uphold the alliance's mandatory two percent defense spending commitment. Trump’s reply: such a nation would have to confront the possibility of Russia acting with impunity.

Mainstream media and political elites were quick to decry Trump's remarks. President Biden criticized Trump's remarks as "un-American," a frequent knee-jerk against Trump, known for challenging establishment norms. Adding to the chorus, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed concern to NBC News that Trump’s comments would damage U.S. credibility among NATO countries.

Yet voters perceive the substance of Trump’s remarks: only 11 NATO nations meet NATO defense funding commitments, with 24 others falling short, despite the war in Ukraine being at NATO’s doorstep. Are President Trump’s stances on international issues in step with American sentiment?

Teflon Don

NPR reported that Republicans were playing “Clean Up on Aisle Trump,” in the wake of the former president’s comments. Yet The Media Intelligence Group, which analyzes social media data to provide AI-driven public sentiment insights, finds that Americans see nothing to clean up at all.

Nationally, Trump’s approval hasn’t budged since his NATO comments, standing at 47% in the seven days prior to his South Carolina rally and holding fast at 47% the following week.

Trump's ratings remained close to Biden's on issues relevant to NATO. Biden holds 47% to 46% for Trump on approval in online debates involving Ukraine, while Biden scores 48% on national security issues to Trump’s 46%.

Meanwhile the onslaught of negative press had no effect on Trump’s overall approval ratings.

Since the rally, Trump's ratings remain close to Biden's on NATO-specific discussions as well. Both Trump and Biden hold 47% approval in online debates involving Russia, while Biden scores 48% on National Security issues to Trump’s 47%. However, Biden faces difficulty in swing states over NATO and security issues.

Stronger Where it Counts, Swing States

Critically, within five days of Trump’s South Carolina rally, Trump retained his lead over Biden in head-to-head support in a majority of key swing states, indicating Trump may be in touch with voters in those states:

• AZ: Trump 48%, Biden 43%
• NV: Trump 48%, Biden 41%
• PA: Trump 47%, Biden 44%
• GA: Trump 47%, Biden 43%
• WI: Trump 44%, Biden 46%

Note: Includes independent candidate RFK Jr., sample size minimum of 1,000 respondents per candidate in each state.

Meanwhile, sentiment over the last seven days in Arizona, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania showed Biden trending down 3% on national security issues. Biden dipped to 40% compared to Trump’s 43%.

Biden remained only marginally higher on Russia, tracking at 45% to Trump’s 43%, a surprisingly close divide on a topic establishment media has sought to frame as an absolute negative for Trump since 2016. Meanwhile, Biden is losing his grip on Ukraine in swing state favorability, where Trump holds 44% approval to Biden’s 41%.

Forging Ahead

The episode typifies the political pattern that has emerged since Trump entered the political arena. Trump built a coalition confronting an entrenched Washington establishment, which in turn has attempted to characterize challenges to its agenda as a five-alarm fire. But is there a crisis? Americans outside the Beltway apparently either align with Trump’s America First outlook or reject media and establishment crisis narratives.

Swing state voters are instead weighing whether America’s security alliances benefit Americans. With the election nine months away, Trump remains in a dominant position, with opposition still struggling to crack the MAGA code.

As speculation grows about who might be President Trump's potential running mate in the next election, online discussions reflect a diverse range of sentiments towards various candidates. Among the potential vice presidential picks, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, and RFK Jr. have emerged as notable contenders. However, the online discourse reveals a mixture of positive and negative opinions surrounding these individuals.

Discussion Snapshot

Vivek Ramaswamy dominates online discussions. Supporters praise his intelligence, well-thought-out plans, and alignment with the 'America First' agenda. However, concerns about his loyalty to Trump and the 'MAGA' movement also emerge, creating a split in public opinion.

Elise Stefanik is consistently the 2nd most talked about candidate. Elise is viewed negatively by some and many have expressed doubt about her chances of being selected as VP.

Tucker Carlson has spiked in mentions following his controversial interview with Vladimir Putin. His qualifications for VP are frequently questioned.

Support Score

Vivek Ramaswamy: Mixed Reviews on a Potential Trump Running Mate

Vivek Ramaswamy emerges as a candidate with mostly positive sentiments among online users. Supporters express excitement and view him as a valuable asset, praising his intelligence and well-thought-out plans. However, detractors argue that he may not be ready for the VP position, with some questioning his loyalty to the MAGA agenda. The division in opinions suggests that while Vivek has a base of supporters, concerns about his readiness for the role remain.

Elise Stefanik: A Sellout or a Potential VP?

Elise Stefanik, on the other hand, faces predominantly negative sentiments. Labeled as a sellout to Donald Trump, online users question her qualities outside of her support for Israel and cast doubt on her chances of being chosen as Trump's VP. The online community appears skeptical of Stefanik's credibility as a potential running mate.

Tucker Carlson: Doubts on Qualifications for VP

Despite not being a candidate, Tucker Carlson's name surfaces in discussions, with users questioning his qualifications for the VP role. One user comments on his journalistic background, emphasizing that it doesn't automatically qualify him for the position. The sentiment suggests skepticism about the idea of Carlson as a potential VP.

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis: Mixed Opinions

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both elicit mixed sentiments. While some users propose that Haley should work with Democrats for a compromise ticket, there's no strong support for her as a VP candidate. DeSantis, on the other hand, receives indications of support, with users suggesting they would vote for Trump if he chooses DeSantis. However, doubts linger, with some users considering alternatives if DeSantis is not selected as the VP.

Kristi Noem: A Potential Trailblazer with Positive Support

Kristi Noem emerges as a potential favorite among online discussions. Users express strong support for her as Trump's VP, even envisioning her as the first female US President. Noem's positive reception indicates that she resonates well with online communities, positioning her as a potential trailblazer.

JD Vance: Mixed Sentiments and Criticism

JD Vance receives both positive and negative sentiments. Supporters see him as meeting all the requirements for Trump's VP, praising his loyalty, brilliance, toughness, energy, and patriotism. However, critics label him as someone willing to say anything to become VP.

Conclusion

As the online discussions unfold, it is evident that there is no definitive front-runner among the potential vice presidential nominees for President Trump. Mixed opinions surround each candidate, reflecting the complexities of choosing a running mate who can unite Trump's base. While some candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Kristi Noem enjoy positive sentiments, doubts persist about their suitability for the role. As discussions continue to evolve, it remains uncertain which candidate will ultimately garner the most support and become the favored choice for Vice President in the eyes of the public.

New Hampshire - What Happened

The New Hampshire GOP primary demonstrated a clear victory for Donald Trump, with his total votes exceeding the entire vote count of the 2016 primary.

Trump's overwhelming victory can be attributed to his strong ground effort and appeal among registered GOP voters. He won 74% of the registered GOP vote, demonstrating his enduring popularity within the Republican party. Conversely, Haley's campaign impressed with independents, winning 65% of their support. This suggests that Haley's message appeals to a broader base, potentially including some Democrats.

While it's hard to ascertain from the data provided whether Democrats were supporting Haley, her strong performance among independents suggests some cross-over appeal. Similarly, it's unclear which candidate attracted libertarian voters, but Trump's strong showing among registered GOP voters suggests he may have been their preferred choice.

What Was On The Ballot?

Without specific polling data on the top issues for Trump and Haley voters, it is difficult to determine what their key priorities were. However, given Trump's past campaigns and his base of support, it is reasonable to guess that issues like immigration, trade, and a strong economy were likely important to his supporters. Haley's supporters, on the other hand, may have been more attracted to her international experience and more traditional conservative stances.

It’s also worth noting that some comments suggest a portion of Libertarian voters might have supported Trump over Haley. This is indicative of Trump’s appeal to anti-establishment voters who prioritize issues such as individual liberties and small government, which are hallmarks of Libertarian ideology. The top three issues appear to be:

Trump

• Anti-establishment
• More conservative governance
• America-first policies

Haley

• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment
• Traditional GOP
• Challenging Trump’s control

However, there is a growing call among some voters for Haley to drop out of the primary. The argument is that the money being spent on her campaign could be better utilized in other crucial races, such as those for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, or gubernatorial seats. Trump is running unopposed in the Nevada Caucus and presumed to win all 26 delegates.

Nevada - What’s Next

Donald Trump's campaign has been marked by significant successes, making him the first non-sitting Republican candidate to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has effectively mobilized his base and resonated with voters, resulting in tangible victories. Nikki Haley's campaign appears to be facing challenges, despite a surge of Democratic votes in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. This perception of Haley as a 'swamp shill', as reflected in public sentiments, has also been detrimental to her campaign.

Trump vs Haley (Nevada)

How Do Voters See It?

Negative sentiments surrounding Haley's campaign have been increasing, with many believing that she has little chance of beating Trump and that her continued presence in the race is damaging to the GOP. These sentiments are further fueled by the belief that she will likely lose the primary in South Carolina, her home state.

In contrast, Trump's campaign is surrounded by mostly positive themes, with supporters praising his leadership and his potential to secure a landslide victory. Despite some criticisms about his focus on loyalty, his support levels seem to be consistently high.

Raising Trump support

• Strong leadership
• America-first policies
• Electability in November

Lowering Trump support

• Threat of potential indictments
• Perceived shift from traditional GOP values

Raising Haley support

• Fresh start in the GOP

Lowering Haley support

• Endorsing candidates against Trump
• Divisiveness within the party, Democrat in disguise
• Refusal to drop out

The New Hampshire GOP primary is garnering significant attention with key players including former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis seems to have contributed to Trump's edge in the race. Recent polling identifies Donald Trump receiving around 50% support, while MIG reporting is currently at 59%

Heading into the vote, Trump seems to have the support of the conservative base of the Republican party, while Haley seems to be the preferred choice for moderate Republicans and those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. There is also a significant percentage of the population open to a third-party candidate, as indicated by the readiness of the No Labels Unity Party to put forth a candidate if Haley does not get the GOP nomination.

Donald Trump's campaign appears to be gathering momentum, after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Many have speculated that this endorsement may cement Trump's standing in the race. The endorsement was hinted at by Rep. Matt Gaetz during a Trump event in Manchester, NH, which has generated much chatter in the political circuit.

On the other hand, Nikki Haley's campaign has been characterized by a mix of support and criticism. Haley, a self-proclaimed globalist, has been criticized for her association with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and their Agenda 2030, which some fear could massively limit personal freedoms. Her endorsement by Asa Hutchinson has also led to accusations that she is backed by elites.

Top Ten Discussions

1. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis.
2. The perceived bias in certain polls favoring Haley
3. The controversial tactics employed by MAGA extremists.
4. The potential of a third-party candidate by the No Labels Unity Party.
5. The public sentiment towards each candidate.
6. The potential of Haley beating Biden in the general election.
7. The divide among Republican voters.
8. Trump and Biden's close competition within the margin of error in some polls.
9. The possibility of a Biden/Trump rematch in the upcoming election.
10. The speculation about the potential failure of either Trump or Biden in certain areas.

Trump's recent historical win in Iowa seems to have bolstered his support in New Hampshire as well, with many staunch Republicans backing him as the only viable candidate who can beat President Biden in the general election. There's a strong sentiment among these supporters that Trump is the true defender of the American Constitution and the values it represents. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley have distinct campaign narratives and differing levels of support, which have been shaped by various factors, including their performances in the Iowa Caucus and the endorsement of Trump by Vivek Ramaswamy. Interestingly, there’s continued conversation of final weeks’ campaign spending and effect in the Iowa caucus.

• Trump’s campaign spent $3.5 million on advertising, securing 54,783 votes, which translates to $63.88 per vote. This efficient campaign spending demonstrates Trump's enduring popularity within the party.
• Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, spent $6.1 million for 22,803 votes in the Iowa Caucus, equating to $268 per vote.
• Nikki Haley’s campaign spent a significant $7.8 million in the Iowa Caucus to secure 20,446 votes, equating to $381.49 per vote.

Looking back at the results from the Iowa caucus, we see a trend of strong support for anti-establishment figures. If this sentiment carries over into New Hampshire, it could benefit Trump, who has long positioned himself as an outsider fighting against the "establishment." Trump’s support received an overnight bump of approximately 7% and is back to over 50%, mirroring his results of the Iowa Caucus. DeSantis, with his strong stance on state rights versus federal overreach, could also capitalize on this sentiment. Haley, however, may struggle if the New Hampshire electorate continues to lean anti-establishment.

What’s On The Ballot?

Online sentiment in New Hampshire indicates several topics which either increases support for Trump or decreases support for Haley, DeSantis:

• Globalism, Trade, and Foreign Relations - negatively impacting Haley due to perceived support for the World Economic Forum's Agenda 2030 and soft on China.
• Immigration - Online discussions suggest that immigration might be a key issue for voters, which may favor Trump more despite perception of Haley's toughness on the border,
• Candidate Credibility - Voters appear to be assessing the candidates on their perceived ability to effectively lead and manage the nation, as evident in the criticism of Haley and DeSantis.
• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment Sentiment - For some voters, their support for Haley seems to be driven more by their dislike for Trump than their liking for Haley.
• Evangelicals & Non-College Educated - Haley's lack of appeal to this demographic and Ramaswamy's appeal to this group suggests that their concerns and preferences are shaping the race.
• Political strategies - Voters are attentive to each candidate's strategy, as shown by the commentary on Haley's decision not to participate in the debates unless Trump does.

Specific issues may vary between states and individuals, but there is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change among the GOP primary voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similar to the Iowa voters, there is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change in the government. This is evidenced by the call for a strong candidate who can defeat Biden and the concerns about election integrity.

Trump’s dominant win in Iowa has set a high bar, while DeSantis and Haley are offering distinct alternatives to Trump's style and politics. In a curious twist, some Democrats are reportedly willing to caucus for Haley if it boosts her chances against Trump, even though they plan to vote for Biden in the general election. This underlines the complexity of the political landscape and the high stakes of this election. It also demonstrates the level of opposition to a potential Trump nomination within sections of both the Democratic and Republican electorate.

Candidate Approval - Trump Alone Above 50%

The criticism of both Haley and DeSantis for representing "same old" politics suggests that there may be a desire for a more non-traditional candidate. New Hampshire’s primary is shaping up to be a closely contested race. Trump's strong, albeit divisive, support base, DeSantis's as-yet unclear position, and Haley's potential appeal to cross-party voters could all impact the eventual outcome.

• Nikki Haley, despite underperforming in the Iowa caucus, seems to have a unique appeal, especially among Democrats who seem to prefer her over President Biden. Her campaign has focused on her electability, with canvassers in New Hampshire emphasizing her potential to defeat Biden in a general election. However, there are also voters who have expressed strong opposition to her, using the hashtag #NeverNikki, suggesting a divided public sentiment towards her candidacy.

From the online discussions about the Argentine presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa, latest MIG data reflected

• Significant increase in Ideologies, Int’l Affairs, and Security Issues
• No major decreases across other topics
• Ideologies may have been seen as the deciding factor in the late stages over Fiscal Policy

Ideologies

Agent of Change, Concern

• Supporters excited for anti-woke, anti-left 
• Seen as beacon of freedom 
• Traditional rallying cry used online “Vive La Libetard” (long live freedom) 
• Some voters worry for return to neoliberal policies 
• Some voters also dissaprove of confrontational style 

Of note, a sharp increase in sentiment (and volume) was only reflected concerning Milei on the day of the election.

Fiscal Policy

Less Discussed, But Less Disliked

• Going back to October 31st, the average sentiment scores for Fiscal Policy were
  • Massa: 38
  • Milei: 42

Many commenters express criticism towards the previous leadership of Sergio Massa and Alberto Fernández, blaming them for high inflation, poverty, unemployment, security issues, and a significant deficit. Milei is seen as promising to lower inflation and fix the fiscal deficit. However, some commenters express concern about Milei's plans to privatize public companies like YPF, Télam, the Public TV, and National Radio.

General Election Analysis

Data appears to reflect a general tone, which is most voters sought a change in the status quo (economics, corruption).

MIG data indicating a Melei lead was accurate to the final vote tally

• MIG reporting
  • Melei 53%
  • Massa 47%
• Final vote
  • Melei 56%
  • Massa 44%

The overall view of Milei is mixed. Some comments express hope and congratulation, recognizing his victory and looking forward to the future under his leadership. There are also comments that seem to suggest his win was due to demagoguery and gained votes from traditional right-wing supporters and a high proportion of Schiaretti's supporters. Some express caution, stating that they hope Argentinians understand that the process under his leadership will be long.

Conclusion

• For the final ten days, there was a near statistical tie in Talking About and Head-to-Head, prior to a clear break at the end
  • Talking About
    • Massa: 3351/day
    • Melei: 3328/day
  • Head-to-Head
    • Massa: 50%
    • Melei: 50%
• The online discussions show a clear dissatisfaction toward Massa, many of the comments seeking change from the status quo pertaining to the economic conditions (inflation, poverty and unemployment rates), and for increasing the fiscal deficit.
• They also accuse him of corruption and deception. Some comments suggest that if Massa wins, the situation will worsen.
• Some users express support for Milei, blaming current economic problems on populist governments and expressing hope that Milei could bring about change.
  • e.g. proposed policies could reduce poverty and improve security
• Others express concerns about Milei's plans, suggesting that they might lead to unemployment and other economic issues.
• Melei is also accused of being associated with fascism, with some commenters express concerns about him allowing fascists to run rampant.
  • e.g. Some Melei supporters want to suppress freedom of expression.

Overall, the majority of comments seem to indicate a preference for Milei over Massa, driven primarily by dissatisfaction with the current economic situation they attribute to Massa's leadership.

Massa is criticized for his perceived hypocrisy such as his expensive Dolce & Gabbana jeans, which they view as contradictory to his image as a candidate who cares for the poor. They also criticize his supporters for protesting against insecurity, which they believe would only be a problem if Milei wins.

Milei on the other hand, is accused of being associated with fascism. Some commenters express concerns about him allowing fascists to run rampant. He is also criticized for having supporters who want to suppress freedom of expression.

Sergio Massa is viewed by some as using the state for his own benefit and the benefit of his friends. He is accused of not genuinely believing in social justice and using it as an argument to maintain his power. However, others express support for Massa, appreciating that he is not associated with certain ideologies or politics they disapprove of. There are also mentions of Massa receiving death threats and expressions of support in the face of such threats.

Javier Milei is seen by some as a champion of liberalism, with claims that he has done more for the people than any other politician by showing them a possible reality and encouraging hope. However, he also has critics who accuse him of not believing in democracy, the state, the nation, and social justice, and only believing in market freedom. Some criticize his proposals as a recipe for social and economic chaos. Others argue that Milei is not liberal but a right-wing conservative neoliberal, and fear a return to the neoliberal models of past presidents if he wins. However, Milei also has supporters who see him as the only candidate with plans to recover sovereignty and respect diverse lifestyles, and who believe that the future of Argentina is liberal.

Public Comments

• 🦁‼️ Los gorilas del mundo rendidos a los pies de Milei: los festejos de Bukele, Bolsonaro y Zelenski 👉 Vox, Elon Musk y Donald Trump también se sumaron a la victoria de La Libertad Avanza. (💣 Faltó Darth Vader)
• La logica indica que Milei va a ser Zelensky y va a terminar mal, o va a ser Boris Johnson y se va a diluir en su extremismo. En ambos casos lo van a repudiar los mismos que lo votaron.
• En este país no se habla de esto. No hablan los medios, no lo repiten 24hs como otras cosas. No lo ves en @c5n ni en @todonoticias día y noche. De esto no habla Massa, no habla Milei, ni Macri, Ni Larreta, Ni Alberto... La ciudad de Buenos Aires es sionista GAZA 💔
• me van a fallar los de milei si ahora en el bunker no cantan "anda a ver a una bruja, anda a ver a un doctor que te saque del orto la pija del leon"
• Pasen la data!.. igual es tristísimo ver a alguien tan preparado, que termine en una secta de delincuentes!😩😎 " SI GANA MILEI Quemó TODOS MIS LIBROS, TITULO DE HARDVARD Y MI TESIS DOCTORAL DE MAS DE 600 PAGINAS.." " YO CREO QUE NO VA OCURRIR..." (Atilio Boron) así dijo está eminencia, Politólogo y Sociólogo Ultrakirchnerista QUEREMOS SABER CUADO Y EN QUE LUGAR VA PRENDER LA HOGUERA
• Gracias Rusa linda Ganó Milei, sumando casi la totalidad de votos de la derecha tradicional de JxC y una muy alta proporción de Schiaretti. Con demagogia, ganaron parte del voto popular, contra un gobierno donde los ricos se enriquecieron y perdieron los que trabajan, producto del pacto con el FMI.
• JAJAJAJA Si gana Milei, solo ruego que los argentinos entiendan que el proceso es largo.
• Vos no laburas y vivis del Estado, el FMI presta plata al 4 por ciento, quien la pidio es el peronismo, al que vos no nombras obviamente porque sos el vagon de cola eterno, la putita del fascismo, hija de puta Ganó Milei, sumando casi la totalidad de votos de la derecha tradicional de JxC y una muy alta proporción de Schiaretti. Con demagogia, ganaron parte del voto popular, contra un gobierno donde los ricos se enriquecieron y perdieron los que trabajan, producto del pacto con el FMI.
• @SergioChouza @JMilei Tu pollo pide licencia y huye, pero seguiremos pagando su plan Platita que son 3 puntos del PBI y deja un déficit 2024 de -8% del PBI; similar al del 2020 cuando su gobierno que se va no nos dejaba trabajar y producir, REBIÉN NOS IBA PAYASO 🤡