With recent news that Trump sent vetting materials to several VP candidates, discussions have grown about potential VP picks for the Trump ticket. The top contenders mostly consist of expected names—largely those who have been considered among Republicans for months.

The Trump campaign has reportedly sent vice-presidential vetting paperwork to seven candidates, including Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, Tim Scott, Byron Donalds, Elise Stefanik, and Ben Carson. The MIG Reports exclusive VP tracker shows live support and approval analysis which recently suggest:

• Voter reactions show different levels of popularity and approval toward the various choices.
• While Vivek Ramaswamy is often mentioned as an unlikely choice, he remains popular among voters with a 30-day average of nearly 20%.
• Byron Donalds takes second place in voter popularity with a 30-day average of 8% support. He also has strong approval numbers and is among the rumored top choices.

What Republicans Are Saying About the Top Picks

Voters are reacting positively to news of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance being in the running. Some endorsed Vance, calling him an America-First choice. They believe he aligns with Trump's agenda and would be acceptable to most. On the other hand, several criticized him primarily for his initial dislike towards Trump and his variable political positions.

Tim Scott and Marco Rubio received mixed reactions. While some voters consider them to be MAGA choices, others label them as RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) and doubt their allegiance to the Trump administration. Some even expressed absolute disapproval of Rubio being considered for vice presidency.

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is receiving relatively less attention. However, some say if Trump picks Burgum as his VP, it could indirectly give Bill Gates significant influence due to their close friendship. This generates disapproval since Gates is unpopular among many conservatives.

A recurring concern for many conservatives and MAGA voters is the prospect of having a RINO as Trump’s VP. They fear establishment candidates will not uphold true conservative values. Nikki Haley, although not officially in the running according to recent news, is repeatedly referenced as among these unfavorable RINO choices. Many say she would be even worse than Mike Pence in the eyes of MAGA supporters.

Byron Donalds

Many voters think Byron Donalds is a popular choice. However, he has sparked some strong backlash for his controversial comments on black America during the Jim Crow Era.

A Florida Congressman, Byron Donalds brings a conservative perspective and is one of the two African American Republicans in the House. However, some worry about his eligibility since he and Trump both reside in Florida. Donalds’ comments about “the Black family” during Jim Crow have been controversial and may alienate moderate voters. Republicans might find his admission and discussion of systemic racism to be problematic.

• Byron Donalds enjoys around 8% support, according to MIG Reports data. His approval is also strong, hovering near 50% and soaring above it at times in the last 30 days.

Marco Rubio

Views of Marco Rubio are divided, with some criticizing his allegiance to the Constitution and suggesting his ambition for power could be damaging. Yet, supporters think his background could attract Independent and moderate voters.

A junior senator from Florida, Rubio offers name recognition and experience from his 2016 presidential run. Republicans may appreciate his commitment to conservative principles on issues like tax and immigration. Moderates might appreciate his engagement on issues like climate change and higher education reform. Constitutional eligibility questions are a concern since both Rubio and Trump are residents of Florida.

• Rubio’s approval tends to vary widely, with dips down close to 30% and highs around 50%.

J.D. Vance

Despite his support with America-First voters, some people criticize Vance for his inconsistent loyalty towards Trump. Others are concerned that if Vance becomes VP, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine might appoint a RINO as his replacement.

Vance is the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and brings an empathetic voice for the struggling working-class. His appeal is tested among Republicans, while his criticisms of Trump may resonate with moderates. Vance's lack of political experience may, however, be a hindrance.

• Vance has gained around 50% approval in the last few days, recovering from a dip to the low 40% range at the start of June.

Tim Scott

Tim Scott's vote against federal protections for contraception and his association with MAGA has earned him criticism from more moderate voters. Yet, some believe he could appeal to Independents better than some of the strong MAGA choices.

South Carolina Senator Scott is the only African American Republican in the Senate and is known for his work on criminal justice reform. This may appeal to moderate voters, although his endorsement of police reform could lead to push back from some conservatives.

• Scott struggled with approval at the start of June, but as news of his consideration increased, his approval increased back to nearly 50%.

Doug Burgum

A relative unknown as North Dakota's governor, some voters think Burgum would allow Trump to keep the spotlight on himself. His name in the running has not elicited any significantly negative reactions, though his VP credentials don't seem to stir up much enthusiasm either.

Burgum is a strong economic conservative with private sector experience as the former CEO of a software company. Republicans might appreciate his fiscally conservative approach and his governing experience, while moderates may be drawn to his reputation as a pragmatic rather than ideological leader.

• Burgum’s approval remains steadily around 50%, with a slight bump in recent days.

Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik did not generate as significant a volume of comments compared to others in contention. She also does not draw as strong of opposition as some other candidates, but she also doesn’t seem to have much momentum behind her.

A young Congresswoman from New York, Stefanik gained fame during the Trump impeachments. Her steadfast support for Trump may win her points with Republicans, but her combative style and strong alignment with Trump might turn off moderate voters.

• Stefanik’s approval can vary widely, fluctuating between 30-50% in the last 30 days.

Ben Carson

While some suggest Carson’s age might be a hindrance to a long-term role, many see him as a good candidate due to his loyalty to Trump and alignment with the America-First movement. Many also view his calm demeanor and intelligence as strengths.

Ben Carson, the former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has a strong association with the Trump administration and a deep-rooted connection with conservative Christian voters. His quiet demeanor may appeal to those seeking a lower profile candidate but his lack of political experience beyond the HUD role may be a negative for those seeking a seasoned political candidate.

• Carson typically sees strong approval percentages, staying largely above 50% in the last 30 days with a high of 59%.

Passing Mention Contenders

There is also speculation about a few dark horse candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who some think could take up the America-First mantle. However, Gabbard's liberal background could deter many conservatives.

Tom Cotton is another notable contender. His right-leaning stances align with more conservative elements of the Republican base, but his alleged refusal to condemn threats of violence, puts him at odds with moderates who prioritize law and order. His attempts to secure a place on Trump's shortlist may also be viewed unfavorably by more traditionalist Republicans who disapprove of a perceived MAGA-centric approach.

This diverse field highlights the Trump campaign's attempt to appeal to various factions within the Republican Party and beyond, balancing ideological conservatives with potential candidates with moderate appeal. Given the early stage, it is likely the list may well evolve. Be sure to check in the MIG Reports exclusive VP tracker as the presidential campaign continues.

Based on AI-curated data and MIG Reports research, a clear front runner has yet to emerge for the Republican VP pick. Given the sentiments discussed in this report and developments in the political landscape, however, popularity may be gathering around Ben Carson, J.D. Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy for the VP position.

With a bombshell guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s New York trial, voter discussions emerged around preventing Trump from becoming the GOP nominee. Some prominent voices promoting this idea include:

Today's verdict is a fire-bell in the night. The Republican Party now has one last chance to change course, and not nominate a convicted felon for President.

— John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) May 30, 2024

It is not easy to see a former President and the presumptive GOP nominee convicted of felony crimes; but the jury verdict should be respected. An appeal is in order but let’s not diminish the significance of this verdict.

— Gov. Asa Hutchinson (@AsaHutchinson) May 30, 2024

There are also numerous other non-public social media profiles discuss installing previous primary candidates such as Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.

MIG Reports analysis shows discussion of possibility of the Republican National Convention becoming a brokered convention or the Republican National Committee selecting a candidate other than Trump. Sentiment is primarily against the Democratic Party, with some comparing the party to a communist or socialist regime and voicing concerns that it is damaging the country.

Most voters express strong disagreement with the idea of the Republican National Committee choosing a different candidate. This suggests a strong loyalty to Trump among much of the Republican base. This potency of commitment suggests any decision to field an alternate candidate could result in substantial backlash or fracturing within the party.

There is also significant fear that the USA is turning into a "communist state," with people pointing out real or perceived similarities between the current Democratic Party strategies and historical actions of communist regimes. Some also mention a Republican Party which they fear harbors anti-Trump sentiment. Deviations from the Trump-led mainstream in the Republican party are also characterized as betrayals.

There are frequent mentions of the 2020 election being stolen and calls for direct action to "take America back." Voters repeatedly compare the current Democratic Party’s actions to the Nazi party under Adolf Hitler, particularly in relation to alleged suppression of free speech.

It is evident that emotions around this conversation are severe, with deep conviction among many inside and outside the GOP.

Swing States

Pro-Trump supporters are aggressive in their response, expressing deep loyalty to the former president and declaring their continued support. They portray Trump as a selfless patriot who risks his personal status and wealth for the sake of the American people. Their posts and hashtags, like #Trump2024, #MAGA, #MakeAmericaGreatAgain, suggest they see a future for Trump in leadership. They view any wrongdoing alleged against Trump as part of a witch hunt, orchestrated by liberal courts and the media, drawing on rhetoric used by Trump himself. They express disdain for Republican politicians who wish to distance themselves from Trump, accusing them of aligning with Democrats and having a secret agenda.

Supporters also voice concerns about the perceived erosion of American government and governance, accusing the state and its institutions of moving towards communism. For them, any attempt to sideline or convict Trump is seen as an attack on the American people's will and the constitution. Many suggest there will be a surge in Trump's popularity and predict backlash in upcoming elections.

Critics of Trump are pleased with the prospect of the Republican National Committee selecting an alternative candidate. They argue justice is being served with the charges against him. They do not sympathize with the narrative presented by his supporters, and instead, view Trump as a threat to democracy.

Despite the differences, there is a common narrative of the situation as a moment of crisis for the American republic - either through alleged political persecution and suppression or through the potential re-emergence of a figure they see as an ideological threat. Ultimately, the comments underscore the deep divides within the American political landscape.

MIG Reports analyzed recent approval of Democratic voters toward President Joe Biden and their current views of the Democratic party. While some voters show support and approval of Biden's performance as president, many Democrats express disapproval or downright hostility towards Biden and his administration.

The main issues Democrats mention include:

• A potential Biden impeachment
• Border security
• Economic policy
• The Israel-Hamas war
• A perceived lack of transparency and honesty from his administration

There's a noticeable discontent with Biden's stance on border control, which some believe is leading to a crisis. Some Democratic voters accuse Biden of being supporting illegal immigrants more than U.S. citizens.

Economic concerns are also prominent, with frustrations centered on rising prices and perceived fiscal irresponsibility. Furthermore, there are negative sentiments about Biden's honesty and transparency, with many suggesting dealings involving his son, Hunter, were covered up.

MIG Reports has also extensively covered the growing divide among Democrats and progressives over Israel. Campus protests, “Uncommitted” votes, and defiance from his own party members like the progressive Squad indicate deep fractures within the party.

Despite significant negativity towards Biden, no other Democrat candidate is emerging as a preferable choice for voters. This suggests an increasing need for new leadership figures within the Democratic party. Voters calling for Biden's impeachment and using derogatory language suggest a significant division and hostility from some quarters.

Among the few supportive voices, there are mentions of Biden's perceived accomplishments and desire to challenge Republican hypocrisy. However, these views are noticeably outnumbered.

Overall, sentiment trends suggest dissatisfaction among many Democrats towards President Joe Biden for a variety of reasons. There is a possibility that AI-compiled data may be more likely to gather politically engaged or partisan viewpoints than those of average citizens. However, among vocal Democrats, the sentiments appear strong, indicating a likely similarity among less vocal party members.

The issue around illegal immigrants voting in U.S. elections has recently become a point of discussion, especially for those concerned about securing the border. In general, illegal immigrants, which Democrats have begun calling “non-citizens” do not have the right to vote under the U.S. Constitution. This is based on a belief in the immemorial prerogative of every independent nation. However, contentions are beginning to arise across different political and ideological lines.

Conservatives tend to emphasize the importance of citizenship in voting rights, arguing illegal immigrants voting would devalue the privilege and duty of citizens. They say anyone voting who is in the country illegally inherently commits voter fraud and allowing it is a manipulation by Democrats.

There are many who believe the increasing possibility of illegal immigrants from many countries voting threatens the integrity of the political process in the United States. They argue citizenship should be a minimum requirement for political participation. Voters express fears the open border will lead to an influx of non-citizens influencing U.S. electoral outcomes.

Many also emphasize the need for greater scrutiny and verification of the ballot process. This includes calls for every state to introduce ballot verifiers like voter ID to ensure free and fair elections.

Across the political spectrum, there seems to be an increased desire for transparency and scrutiny to maintain election integrity. However, Democrats tend to fear interference by figures like former President Trump. Republicans are more likely to fear Democrat cheating, including allowing illegal aliens to vote.

Democrat Hypocrisy and Election Cheating

Many Americans accuse politicians and of obfuscating their intentions and betraying their constituents’ desires. The House recently voted to repeal an existing law allowing non-citizens to vote in local D.C. elections. This generated criticism toward the 143 Democrats who voted against repealing the law.

🚨🚨🚨

143 extreme House Democrats just voted to allow ILLEGAL migrants to vote in DC elections. pic.twitter.com/1EhrM9T1V0

— NRCC (@NRCC) May 23, 2024

The existence of laws like the one in D.C. – and Democrat support for it – causes many Americans to disbelieve protests from Democrats denying their desire to allow non-citizen voting. Democrats deflect on humanitarian grounds, claiming allegations about illegal immigrants voting are just strategies to justify hardline immigration policies. They assert many immigrants are refugees escaping dire conditions and are not seeking to impact U.S. elections.

Liberal voters tend to believe illegal immigrants, especially long-term residents who contribute to the economy and society, should have a say in decisions that affect their lives. They argue if these residents are expected to obey the laws of the country, they should have a voice in creating them. Advocates say allowing non-citizens to vote can be a means of fostering civic participation and political integration, granting representation to the diverse communities within the country.

However, these arguments mostly serve to foment conservative fears that Democrats are being opaque about their true desires. More conservative and moderate voters are expressing fears that Democrat hypocrisy is driven by a desire to use illegal immigrants to cheat in the 2024 election. They point out Democrats want more options as Biden’s poll numbers continue to tank among traditional voting groups.

Mainstream Media Negligence

Conservative voters are skeptical of the mainstream media's reporting on the border and election integrity. They believe major news networks like CNN and the New York Times fail to report the truth about border and voting issues. They also think biased media narratives harm the legal voting system and undermine trust in the system.

References to the New York Times using anonymous sources reflect skepticism about whether these sources are reliable. There is a strong sense of media bias, with many voters discrediting media reports about election integrity or process.

Complaints about mainstream media carrying water for Democratic politicians become especially pronounced when outlet like AP News report that illegal immigrants voting is illegal and that, despite Republican fears, it’s not happening “in significant numbers.”

MIG Reports deep-dive analysis on Mexican cartel presence in the United States highlights a few notable trends:

• Increasing concerns about cartel activities
• Polarization on illegal immigration
• Evolving discourse on the border
• Media blame for information gaps among voters

Cartels inflict severe humanitarian and socioeconomic harm on their own country and the U.S. They drive violence, exploitation, and forced migration; destabilizing communities, undermining development, and contributing to poverty and corruption.

They also play a significant role in irregular and illegal immigration, with migrants often falling victim to cartel violence. Their activities threaten national security by infiltrating U.S. neighborhoods with drug and child trafficking and organized crime.

• Discussion trends show drug and human trafficking are two of the most prevalent keywords related to border issues.

Common Viewpoints Among All Voters

Despite significant ideological and political divides, recent escalations in the border crisis are driving down approval for the Biden administration’s policies. Democrats and progressives are still much more likely to support the existing border situation. However, there are several key points of agreement that a majority of Americans share:

• American sentiment towards Mexican cartels is overwhelmingly negative.
• Cartels are primarily viewed through the lens of violence, drug trafficking, and the ensuing social harm.
• The opioid crisis driven by fentanyl is a major concern linked to cartel activities.
• Cartels are perceived as a direct threat to American society.

There also seems to be certain knowledge gaps in various demographics regarding border issues. Analysis suggests this is largely a result of media outlets selectively reporting or framing political narratives.

• Conservatives and legal immigrants tend to have the most initiative in seeking out information about the border and Mexican cartels.
• Wealthier and more left leaning Americans may have some knowledge, but largely accept media narratives.
• Young Americans and elderly Americans may both have a skewed view of the border due to lack of or outdated information.

Views of Mexican Cartels

Political Trends

Republicans tend to view cartels as a major threat exacerbated by perceived lax border policies under Democratic administrations. The narrative often links cartels to broader criticisms of immigration policy, highlighting issues such as fentanyl trafficking and human trafficking.

Democrats, while also concerned about cartel activities, focus more on the humanitarian aspects of immigration and the need for comprehensive immigration reform. There is less emphasis on cartels as the primary issue.

Geographic Influence

Border State residents in places like Texas, Arizona, and California are more likely to have heightened concerns about cartels due to their proximity to the Mexican border. These areas are more directly impacted by cartel activities like drug trafficking and illegal crossings.

Concerns about cartels in non-border states are often more abstract and tied to national narratives than direct experience.

Socioeconomic Status

Lower income communities are often directly affected by the negative consequences of drug trafficking and illegal cartel activity. They tend to see increased crime and addiction rates. Higher income communities are more likely to be focused on broader national security and economic implications rather than personal safety.

Overall Sentiment Trends

The volume of discourse around cartels has increased significantly in recent years. It is particularly pronounced amid the opioid crisis and high-profile cases of human trafficking.

Negative sentiment has also intensified, especially among Republicans and residents of border states. There is a marked increase in the association of cartel activities with broader criticisms of the Biden administration's policies.

However, there are notable demographics who are relatively ignorant of the complexity of cartel operations. This group includes:

• Some urban liberal populations – particularly those insulated from direct impacts. They often do not fully grasp the nuances of cartel operations and the effects on border communities.
• Younger Americans – especially those not living in high-impact areas. They may lack a comprehensive understanding of the issue, often receiving information through filtered social media narratives.

Top Discussion Topics Related to Cartels

Drug Trafficking

The fentanyl crisis is a significant concern. Many attribute the influx of fentanyl to cartel activities. This is often mentioned with criticisms of current border policies.

Human Trafficking

There is strong negativity towards cartels perpetrating human trafficking, particularly child trafficking. This topic ties into broader concerns about immigration policies and border security.

Violent Crime

Many Americans associate cartels with increased violent crime. This is true in border states and across the nation as cartels expand their operations.

View of Illegal Immigration

Political Trends

Republicans typically express strong anti-cartel sentiments. They often link cartel activities to illegal immigration and border security. Messaging from conservative media and politicians emphasizes the dangers posed by cartels in terms of drug trafficking and violent crime.

As with cartels, liberals and Democrats tend to focus more on humanitarian aspects of the immigration conversation. They highlight the plight of asylum seekers and the socioeconomic factors driving migration. They may be more critical of aggressive border policies they feel unfairly target immigrants.

Geographic Influence

Border State residents have heightened awareness and therefore stronger opinions about illegal immigration due to proximity and direct impact. Experiences with border security issues and local crime rates influence their views.

Residents of non-border states are generally less directly affected and may be more influenced by national media narratives. Their opinions can fluctuate based on high-profile news stories or political campaigns.

Socioeconomic Status

Working-class and lower income groups are more likely to support stringent measures against illegal immigration due to perceived competition for jobs and resources. They also have higher exposure to drug-related issues in their communities.

Middle- and upper-class groups often focus more on policy and humanitarian aspects, advocating for comprehensive immigration reform and international cooperation to tackle the root causes of cartel power.

Overall Sentiment Trends

Recent data, such as the rise in fentanyl-related deaths and reports of increased illegal crossings, have heightened public concern about immigration. This is particularly pronounced among conservatives, who link these issues directly to border security failures.

The topic of cartels and immigration has become highly polarized, with significant differences in sentiment between political affiliations. This polarization is fueled by targeted media narratives and political rhetoric.

There is also a growing divide between those advocating for empathetic approaches to immigration and those prioritizing national security. This divide is often along socioeconomic political lines.

Ignorance of the Border Crisis

Urban residents in non-border states far from the crisis sometimes have limited knowledge of cartel operations and immigration. Their understanding is largely shaped by media consumption, which can vary widely in accuracy and focus.

While more informed on certain social issues, younger Americans often lack detailed knowledge about the operational intricacies of cartels, focusing instead on broader humanitarian narratives.

Residents in higher socioeconomic brackets can also be somewhat insulated from the direct impacts of cartel activities, leading to a less urgent perception of the issue.

Overall View of the Border Crisis

General Sentiments and Understanding

Republicans typically express the deepest concern over cartel activities, associating them with broader issues of illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and national security. Sentiment is strongly negative, emphasizing the dangers posed by open border policies, which conservatives believe enables cartel operations. This group almost universally advocates for stricter border controls and increased law enforcement.

Democrats often frame the issue within a broader context of immigration reform and humanitarian concerns. While acknowledging the dangers of cartels, they argue for comprehensive immigration policies to address root causes and provide pathways to citizenship. Their sentiment is mixed, balancing concerns about security with empathy for migrants.

Media Influence

Media outlets play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. Conservative media often highlights violent incidents involving cartels and illegal immigrants. They disseminate information and bring awareness to what is happening while advocating for stringent border measures.

In contrast, mainstream and leftist media focuses on humanitarian aspects, critiquing harsh enforcement policies and highlighting stories of migrant suffering. Many view mainstream media as a critical cause for progressive and urban Americans’ lack of knowledge about border issues.

There is some media coverage, especially from outlets like NBC News and AP News, amplifying the perception of cartels as a pervasive threat. Reports on cartel violence and its impact on both Mexican and American communities reinforce the idea that cartels are a critical issue that requires urgent attention.

Public Awareness

There is a significant disparity in public awareness about cartel operations. Many Americans are aware of high-profile incidents and general issues related to drug trafficking and violence. However, detailed knowledge about cartel structures, operations, and their socioeconomic impact is limited. This is true across the board but is especially pronounced among those not directly affected by the border crisis.

Despite insufficient public awareness about border issues overall, discussions have dramatically increased during the Biden administration. Awareness also rises with high-profile incidents like the murder of Laken Riley, which many point out happens more frequently under current policies.

Social media platforms also amplify these discussions. This can result in viral awareness campaigns or sometimes lead to echo chambers where existing sentiments are reinforced.

Major Sentiment Trends

There is a noticeable increase in fear, especially among conservative circles. This is driven by increasing violent crimes and drug trafficking associated with cartel activities.

Among liberals and younger demographics, there is advocacy for balanced policies that secure the border while addressing humanitarian needs. This trend reflects an acknowledgment, even on the left, of unacceptable current conditions at the border.

President Joe Biden surprised many Americans recently with a public challenge to Donald Trump for a presidential campaign debate. This was surprising both because it is still early in the year for a one-on-one presidential debate and because many have been skeptical that either candidate would agree to a debate.

Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020. Since then, he hasn’t shown up for a debate.

Now he’s acting like he wants to debate me again.

Well, make my day, pal. pic.twitter.com/AkPmvs2q4u

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 15, 2024

Many Democrats and liberals see Biden's challenge as a bold and confident move. They perceive it as a direct confrontation of Trump's reluctance to participate in debates and a way to hold him accountable.

Critics point out that Biden himself did not participate in primary debates and has allegedly worked to silence his opponents. They find it hypocritical for him to challenge Trump under these circumstances.

Biden's "Make my day, pal," remark quickly became fodder for memes and humorous commentary on social media. While some find it amusing and a sign of Biden's fighting spirit, others view it as cringe-worthy or out of touch. The reactions largely fell along partisan lines, with each side interpreting the challenge according to their pre-existing views.

Media Bias and Criticism

Many voters express concerns about the legitimacy and fairness of the debate process. They argue the criteria set by debate commissions or media organizations often serve to marginalize conservative candidates and viewpoints. These concerns are particularly prominent among Trump supporters who feel sidelined by the mainstream political apparatus.

There is a strong sentiment among Trump supporters that the debate conditions will be biased in Biden's favor. They criticize the choice of moderators and networks, suggesting outlets like CNN and ABC are inherently biased against Trump.

People also criticize the insistence on no studio audience and cutting the opponent's mic when they’re not speaking. Right leaning observers suggest that, should Biden go through with a debate, the media will allow precautions to prop up his image and hide his recurringly feeble public speaking performance.

Biden’s Cognitive State

Right leaning voters are highly critical of Biden's cognitive abilities. They argue Biden frequently struggles with staying alert and coherent during public appearances. They say this undermines his ability to effectively lead the country. The sentiment is encapsulated in comments like, "a president who can’t stay awake all day," underscoring a belief that Biden lacks the mental acuity required for the presidency.

Voters often cite instances where Biden has misspoken or appeared confused as evidence of cognitive decline. The suggestion is that Biden’s performance in any potential debate would be severely lacking, making him an easy target for a more aggressive and energetic opponent like Trump. There are also suggestions that Biden should be required to take a drug test before any debate to dispel suspicions of performance aids.

Liberal voters tend to downplay concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities. They dismiss criticisms as partisan attacks with little basis in reality. For this group, Biden’s experience, empathy, and policy priorities are far more important than occasional verbal missteps. They argue Biden has surrounded himself with a competent team that can help mitigate any potential shortcomings.

• In the last two weeks, sentiment towards Trump on the topic of President has remained steadily around 50%, while Biden hovers in the low 40% range.
• Trump has also managed a slight lead in overall approval among swing state voters in the last week, with Biden closing the gap slightly in the last two days.

Democratic Voter Reactions

Democratic voters have mixed reactions to Biden challenging Trump. Many view it as an opportunity for Biden to showcase his leadership and policy achievements compared to Trump. For instance, some Democrats believe Biden exceeded expectations in his State of the Union address and hope he can carry that momentum into the debates.

However, Democrats also worry about Biden's performance in debates. Some recall his previous debate gaffes and worry a poor performance could harm his re-election prospects. There's also skepticism about whether Biden, given his age and perceived cognitive decline, can effectively hold his ground against Trump's aggressive debate style.

Some Democrats are wary, fearing a debate might devolve into chaos, which they view as unfair. Democrats also seem to stay silent and decline engaging on the topic of Biden's cognitive health. Instead, they prefer to highlight his achievements and criticize the media for not giving enough attention to these accomplishments.

Many Democrats believe the debates will happen as scheduled, given the public commitments made by both candidates. However, some admit the potential for last-minute cancellations or changes, especially if Biden faces health challenges or Trump is convicted.

Overall, Democratic voters are cautiously optimistic but concerned. They see the debates as a necessity but are wary of the potential risks involved.

What Republicans Are Saying

Conservative and Republican voters are largely enthusiastic about the debates, seeing them as a platform for Trump to dominate Biden. Many believe Trump will perform well, citing Biden's declining cognitive abilities and dependency on handlers. This group often references Biden's past debate performances and public appearances as evidence of his inadequacy.

There is also a strong belief among Republican voters that the debates will expose the failures of Biden's administration. They expect Trump to capitalize on issues like border security, economic policies, and foreign affairs to criticize Biden.

Some of the Republican base also questions the integrity of the debate process. They suspect Biden might receive unfair advantages, such as pre-debate questions from the media. Many also predict the Biden team will find a way to bow out before the debate.

Republicans are generally confident Trump will show up for the debates, viewing him as eager to confront Biden publicly. However, they are less confident about Biden, fearing his team will back out if they perceive a significant disadvantage.

Independent Reactions

Independent voters are perhaps the most critical audience for these debates. They tend to be more skeptical and less ideologically driven than partisan voters. Many independents view the debates as an essential platform to compare the candidates' policies and leadership styles directly.

Some independents are hopeful the debates will provide clarity on the candidates' plans for the country. They are particularly interested in how both candidates address key issues like the border, the economy, and Israel.

Independents are split. Some are optimistic the debates will proceed as planned, while others doubt it, citing the unpredictable nature of both candidates and the political climate.

However, there's also a sense of debate fatigue among independents. Some see the debates as performative rather than substantive, doubting whether they will offer any new insights or change their opinions significantly.

Former President Donald Trump's rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on May 11, 2024, attracted significant attention, both from supporters and critics. The event was reported to have drawn around 100,000 attendees, a remarkable figure considering the town's small size. A population of approximately 5,300 and Wildwood’s location in a traditionally Democratic state generated buzz. MIG Reports analysis reveals public reactions, discussion patterns, and the potential implications of such events.

Size of the Rally

The reported attendance of up to 100,000 people at the rally is an indicator of Trump’s continued strong support base. This is especially pronounced in a state that leans Democratic. Some mainstream media outlets attempt to contest these numbers by saying they’re exaggerated, and crowds were smaller.

Public Reactions and Discussion Patterns

The rally sparked a wide range of reactions across social media platforms and news outlets.

Support and Endorsements: The rally generated some notable endorsements, particularly from NFL legends Lawrence Taylor and Otis Anderson. Their endorsements were significant because they both identified as lifelong Democrats who shifted their support to Trump, underscoring Trump's appeal to some traditionally Democratic voters.

Criticism and Skepticism: There was also reactionary criticism, focusing on the accuracy of the attendance figures and Trump’s political strategies. Online critics suggest the rally coincided with other events, implying the crowd size might have been bolstered by those attending for reasons other than political support.

Media Coverage: The event was widely covered with varied tones. Some conservative outlets and social media accounts highlight the massive turnout as evidence of robust support for Trump's potential 2024 presidential campaign. In contrast, mainstream and left leaning outlets question the rally's actual impact and the authenticity of the crowd size reports.

Political Statements: Trump's speech and the reactions to it highlight deep divisions in public opinion. His supporters view the rally as a strong kickoff to his 2024 campaign, while detractors criticize his approach and question his suitability for re-election.

Potential Impacts of Future Rallies

Events like the Wildwood rally serve multiple strategic purposes for Trump.

• Mobilizing the Base: Such rallies energize Trump’s core supporters and are likely to boost volunteerism, fundraising, and voter turnout.
• Media Attention: Trump’s ability to generate media coverage helps keep his political agenda and narratives in the public eye, which is crucial in the lead-up to an election.
• Influencing the Political Narrative: By staging large rallies in traditionally Democratic areas, Trump challenges the prevailing political norms and asserts his influence across traditional party lines.
• Testing Political Waters: The reactions to the rally provide Trump and his team with valuable data on which messages resonate with the electorate, enabling them to tailor future campaigns.

The rally in New Jersey underscores Donald Trump's enduring influence with Americans, while highlighting his unconventional approach to political engagement. While the exact size of the rally and the motives of attendees may be debated, the event undoubtedly shows that Trump’s popularity remains a pivotal aspect of American politics as the 2024 Presidential Election approaches.

An analysis of swing states by MIG Reports in the upcoming 2024 presidential election indicates former President Trump has a slight lead over President Biden on three key issues: border security, the economy, and foreign wars.

Several other data points also indicate a preference for Trump, highlighting successes from his administration and a general distrust of Biden’s leadership. Additionally, criticism of Biden appears to reflect recent and ongoing events. Criticisms of Trump are largely historical events like “Russiagate” and his handling of COVID, rather than current issues.

2024 President Race

Pennsylvania

Discussion about Trump is centered on his potential re-election and the perception that he still poses a significant challenge to the current administration. Some voters believe there are politicized efforts to mitigate his influence. They infer this means he remains an influential figure in politics, despite Democratic hopes to the contrary.

Conversations about Biden are predominantly critical. There are many accusations ranging from personal dishonesty to broader criticisms of his administration's handling of immigration and foreign conflicts. Despite negative sentiment, some voters express support for Biden's efforts to bring change and view him as the best option for Democratic re-election.

Georgia

Sentiment towards Trump is predominantly negative in Georgia. Voters focus on his past actions which they view as disrespectful or deceitful. Most conversations suggest little support for Trump’s potential return to office. However, there are pockets of supporters who believe in his chances of winning, highlighting the persistence of his voter base.

Discussions about Biden highlight his empathetic side, accomplishments, and significant support. There is specific discussion about his work with a young boy who stutters and his campaign's success in engaging younger voters. However, there are also criticisms and skepticism of his administration's effectiveness and integrity, including doubts about a potential second term.

Florida

Discussion trends among Trump supporters focus on calls for Biden's impeachment, citing perceived failures in his administration and criticism of the economy. There's also strong opposition towards Biden, with doubts about the legitimacy of his 2020 election and criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris's handling of the border crisis.

Conversely, Biden supporters dismiss calls for his impeachment. They accuse Republicans of distracting from policy issues. They criticize Trump for his alleged role in January 6 and express frustration with Republican obstructionism. Overall, sentiment reflects impatience with polarization and skepticism towards Trump's actions.

Ohio

Criticism of Trump centers on his personal character and past actions, including accusations of domestic abuse and criticism of his business practices. Some defend him, portraying him as a victim of political bias. Others express dissatisfaction with both parties' inability to listen to voters.

Criticism towards Biden focuses on his past actions, policies, family, wealth, and mental capability. There are accusations of hypocrisy and controversies involving his family members. While some appreciate his support of small businesses, overall sentiment remains largely negative towards both Biden and VP Harris.

Wisconsin

Discussion about Trump suggests frustration and disappointment with both his term and the current administration. Some imply trust in government is continuing to fall. There's a notable lack of direct mentions of Trump, indicating a shift in focus away from him as a news driver for Wisconsin voters.

Criticism towards Biden includes accusations of selling out the country, racism, and pedophilia. There is negative sentiment focused on perceived wrongdoings and scandals. However, some voters defend Biden, attributing budget mishandling to Congress and expressing support for his leadership.

Nevada

Discussion of Trump in Nevada includes criticism for past behavior and scandals during his presidency. However, it's less frequent and focused compared to criticisms of Biden. Some voters reference Trump's impeachment and refusal to accept the presidential salary.

Sentiment towards Biden is overwhelmingly negative in Nevada. There are accusations that he is a traitor, a criminal, and dishonest. Criticisms focus on his policies, particularly in foreign affairs and the economy. There are also frequent references to broken promises and negative comparisons with Trump.

North Carolina

Voter discourse about Trump includes criticism for being twice impeached and labeled as a liar and a criminal. However, there's a significant amount of support for his return in 2024, reflected in posts using #Trump2024.

Sentiment towards Biden is largely negative in North Carolina. There’s criticism directed at his policies, decisions, and personal character. Calls for his impeachment and hashtags like #DemocratsAreDestroyingAmerica indicate dissatisfaction with his leadership, along with attacks on VP Harris.

New Hampshire

Online discussion about Trump includes criticism of his character, handling of the pandemic, and faith. But there's also notable support, especially regarding his influence on industries like trucking and calls for him to run again in 2024.

Discussions around Biden are predominantly negative. New Hampshire voters criticize his policy decisions, leadership, and allegations of dementia and manipulation by a "shadow government.” However, some comments express support for his commitment to youth and AAPI communities, democracy, the environment, and optimism for a potential second term.

Michigan

Public sentiment towards Trump in Michigan is mixed but leans negative. There are criticisms of his personal behavior, alleged misconduct, and perceived corruption. However, some express support for his economic policies.

Sentiment towards Biden is predominantly negative. Voters accuse him of incompetence, dishonesty, and senility, along with speculating about his mental state and potential impeachment. Some voters express support for Biden's financial investments in public education and enthusiasm for his re-election.

Arizona

Discourse about Trump includes criticism of his past actions and handling of issues like immigration. Some Arizonans do defend him, claiming he's unfairly and politically targeted, anticipating his potential future leadership.

The sentiment towards Biden in Arizona is predominantly negative. There are calls for impeachment, criticism of policies, and dissatisfaction with the economy. However, some voters express support for the Biden-Harris team, praising VP Harris.

U.S. National Security Issues

Pennsylvania

Sentiment toward Trump on national security is mixed. Some in Pennsylvania express strong support for his policies, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. Others strongly criticize his handling of conflicts and allege ties to Russia.

Discussion about Biden is also mixed, with some supporting his approach to international issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict. Others question his emotional state and raise concerns about controversies like Hunter Biden's alleged laptop scandal.

Georgia

Discussion about Trump focuses on his administration's handling of international affairs. Supporters in Georgia credit him for maintaining peace in the Middle East and criticizing the current state under Biden's leadership. Critics see him as dangerous and unfit, accusing him of inciting insurrection and destabilizing alliances like NATO.

Sentiment toward Biden is mixed, with critics blaming him for perceived threats to Israel's sovereignty and conflicts in Ukraine. Democratic supporters defend his administration's actions and blame problems on the previous administration, particularly Trump's handling of foreign affairs.

Florida

Florida discussion about Trump shows strong support for his stance on Hamas and Israel. Some believe the conflict in the Middle East wouldn't have escalated under his leadership. However, others criticize him for potential ulterior motives in his relationship with Putin and handling of the Ukraine situation.

Sentiment towards Biden is less clear, with some users expressing skepticism about his approach to managing the Israel-Palestine conflict and providing aid to Israel, while others criticize his seeming support for Ukraine amid discussions about the role of Russia and Ukraine in foreign policy dynamics.

Ohio

Discussion about Trump reveals mixed sentiment in Ohio. Some express support for his pro-Israel stance and other foreign policies. Others criticize him for alleged ties to Russia and policies during his administration they believe didn't benefit the United States.

Ohio voters also criticize Biden's leadership, blaming him for a negative international image of America. There is also criticism for instances Hamas support on university campuses. Discussion trends focus on international relations and funding allocation, with questions about why funds are sent to Ukraine amidst domestic issues.

Wisconsin

Sentiment towards Trump is polarized in Wisconsin. Some express staunch support, citing him as a strong ally to Israel. Others criticize him for allegedly prioritizing Russia over America. There are also accusations of political corruption.

Discussions about Biden’s foreign policy center on his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Sentiment seems split between dissatisfied Democrats and supporters. This is encapsulated in the term "Ben-Gvir vote," suggesting alignment with a hardline stance on Israel's security and sovereignty. There are allegations of political corruption, with public scrutiny towards financial influences in Biden’s administration.

Nevada

Sentiment towards Trump on security issues is mixed. Some Nevadans accuse him of colluding with Russia. Detractors express concern about his potential influence on future elections. However, many strongly support him, challenging the narrative that he has ties with Russia and emphasizing his support for Israel.

Discussion about Biden is similarly divided. Some voters show gratitude for his actions, especially regarding Israel and Hamas. Critics disavow his policies, particularly his approach to Ukraine and Israel. They question the accountability of aid provided to Ukraine.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, discussion about Trump is intensely polarized. Supporters praise his leadership skills, saying he will win the 2024 election. They applaud his stance on foreign policy and security. Detractors express concern about the potential for his return and criticize his approach to international relations, particularly with Ukraine and Russia.

References to Biden in the discussion focus on his administration's actions in the Ukraine conflict. Critics argue his policies have been ineffective and led to increased aggression from Russia. However, there are fewer direct sentiments expressed about Biden compared to Trump, indicating the current narrative is more heavily focused on Trump.

New Hampshire

Discussion around Trump includes his relationship with Russia, with some claiming he was "installed" by the country. Others find the idea amusing. His perceived attitude towards Palestine and Israel also generates criticism from anti-Israel activists. There's also criticism of his divisive politics, with some expressing optimism for a future where he is less influential.

Biden's narrative is less prominent in New Hampshire. There are isolated mentions such as an alleged link between Biden and the 1968 PLO terrorists. However, there's less discussion overall. The issue of financial aid to Ukraine and Israel is recurring in the minimal conversation. Some question foreign funding, suggesting the southern border of the U.S is more pressing.

Michigan

Discussion around Trump centers on his perceived relationship with Putin and Russia. There are allegations that he sold out the country and deliberately mishandled Afghanistan to distract from Russia's actions in Ukraine. There are also criticisms of his Middle Eastern policy. However, some Michigan voters express confidence in Trump’s ability to handle international relations if re-elected.

Sentiment towards Biden is also largely negative. There is focus on his administration's role in the Israeli-Hamas conflict and accusations of complicity in the Gaza Genocide. However, some praise his legislative operations and support his foreign aid decisions, indicating some mixed sentiment.

Arizona

For Trump, criticisms often focus on allegations of corruption and criminal behavior, including accusations of selling intelligence to Russia and Saudi Arabia. Despite this, many in Arizona praise his strong support for Israel and his tough stance against Hamas.

Criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy mainly revolve around his handling of international affairs in Ukraine, Russia, and Israel. Some argue his administration's financial aid to Ukraine will lead to more deaths and destruction. Others express disappointment at his perceived ambivalence towards Israel.

As more American voters begin to think about the presidential election this fall, they are beginning to express concerns about political turmoil. MIG Reports analysis shows online discussion about increased turmoil in the form of violent, economic, and political contentions. While Democrats and Republicans typically emphasize different dangers, both sides seem to fear election interference and political violence.

The extent and nature of any pre-election turmoil could significantly impact voter sentiment and turnout, potentially affecting the election's outcome.

Mutual Worries Among Liberals and Conservatives

Most voters are concerned about corruption and unethical behavior within the government. They believe politicians are not acting in the best interest of the public and are instead focused on power and political agendas.

Election Interference

One of the most prominent concerns among all voters, regardless of party, is the possibility of election interference. For Democratic voters, fears seem to center more around potential foreign interference. Republican voters more frequently express skepticism about domestic interference from the Democrat party.

Political Violence and Riots

Memories of January 6 still loom large in the minds of many Democrats. This causes anxiety about the potential for increased “far-right violence,” whether Trump or Biden is reelected. Republicans worry more about politicized violence from leftist activists like Black Lives Matter or anti-Israel protesters. Both sides seem to fear political riots are highly likely no matter who wins the election.

October Surprises

The tradition of October surprises—major news stories breaking shortly before the election—also contributes to worries about election turmoil. Voters fear that such events could sway the election outcome, though there are many speculations as to what an October Suprise might be.

• National sentiment toward the economy, COVID, election integrity and protests have been decreasing in the last two weeks.
• Republicans voice concerns about a potential resurgence of COVID lockdowns and Democrats often worry about election interference.

Black Swan Events Could Bring Upheaval

Black swan events are unpredictable events which have potentially severe consequences. Given their nature, it's challenging to forecast what these could be – but many voters think of recent black swan events like COVID-19.

Some of the black swan events voter mention include:

• Significant escalation in international conflicts
• A global economic crisis
• Environmental or natural disasters
• Another public health or pandemic event

Any major black swan event could dramatically reshape the political landscape and voter sentiment.

Conservatives and right leaning voters are more likely to suggest black swan events like another public health crisis, causing renewed government lockdowns. They are also more likely to mention global economic situations which could severely impact American commerce and quality of life.

Liberal and left leaning voters are more likely to mention wars and conflicts breaking out internationally. They may also be more concerned about potential natural disasters or climate chaos due to climate change.

Republican Fears About Election Turmoil

Republican voters often speak out about potential changes to election laws which they believe could lead to fraud. They cite things like expanded mail-in voting or removal of voter ID laws as election dangers.

These voters also worry about violent protests or riots related to racial or social justice issues. There are also growing concerns about violent anti-Israel protests which could destabilize communities and potentially sway voter sentiment.

While Democrats talk more about misinformation online, some right leaning voters also worry about social media censorship or bias against conservative viewpoints. Many of this group believe that important information was suppressed during the 2020 election which, if voters had known, may have shifted opinions.

Overall, many voters express a lack of trust in the electoral process and legal system. Many Republicans feel the system is corrupt and untrustworthy, expressing disillusionment with the voting process in general. There is a growing sense that voting is becoming futile because of bureaucratic and power-grabbing tactics by corrupt politicians and institutions.

Democratic Fears in 2024

Democrats often voice concern about voter suppression, particularly impacting minority communities. They tend to place this as an important issue which could impede a fair election.

Liberals are also more vocal about the spread of misinformation and disinformation, particularly on social media platforms. This is a shared concern among many voters, but Democrats tend to express more concern about how misinformation may influence voter sentiment and election integrity.

There are some Democratic voters who worry about President Biden's mental fitness, particularly given his age. While this is a worry that many don’t express publicly, those that do fear it could deter Democrats from supporting him in 2024.

Many Democrats also fear the party is not doing enough to address pressing issues like racial and social justice. They fear Biden’s unwillingness to support Palestine or failing to engage with social issues could impact Democratic voter sentiment.

Democratic voters also have deep concerns about the potential impact of a Trump win on the nation's standing in the world. They fear if Trump returns to power, the U.S. may align more with Putin's Russia, which could have consequences for international relations and national security. There is also a strong sentiment among Democratic voters that a potential Trump win could lead to authoritarian rule.