As speculation grows about who might be President Trump's potential running mate in the next election, online discussions reflect a diverse range of sentiments towards various candidates. Among the potential vice presidential picks, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, and RFK Jr. have emerged as notable contenders. However, the online discourse reveals a mixture of positive and negative opinions surrounding these individuals.

Discussion Snapshot

Vivek Ramaswamy dominates online discussions. Supporters praise his intelligence, well-thought-out plans, and alignment with the 'America First' agenda. However, concerns about his loyalty to Trump and the 'MAGA' movement also emerge, creating a split in public opinion.

Elise Stefanik is consistently the 2nd most talked about candidate. Elise is viewed negatively by some and many have expressed doubt about her chances of being selected as VP.

Tucker Carlson has spiked in mentions following his controversial interview with Vladimir Putin. His qualifications for VP are frequently questioned.

Support Score

Vivek Ramaswamy: Mixed Reviews on a Potential Trump Running Mate

Vivek Ramaswamy emerges as a candidate with mostly positive sentiments among online users. Supporters express excitement and view him as a valuable asset, praising his intelligence and well-thought-out plans. However, detractors argue that he may not be ready for the VP position, with some questioning his loyalty to the MAGA agenda. The division in opinions suggests that while Vivek has a base of supporters, concerns about his readiness for the role remain.

Elise Stefanik: A Sellout or a Potential VP?

Elise Stefanik, on the other hand, faces predominantly negative sentiments. Labeled as a sellout to Donald Trump, online users question her qualities outside of her support for Israel and cast doubt on her chances of being chosen as Trump's VP. The online community appears skeptical of Stefanik's credibility as a potential running mate.

Tucker Carlson: Doubts on Qualifications for VP

Despite not being a candidate, Tucker Carlson's name surfaces in discussions, with users questioning his qualifications for the VP role. One user comments on his journalistic background, emphasizing that it doesn't automatically qualify him for the position. The sentiment suggests skepticism about the idea of Carlson as a potential VP.

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis: Mixed Opinions

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both elicit mixed sentiments. While some users propose that Haley should work with Democrats for a compromise ticket, there's no strong support for her as a VP candidate. DeSantis, on the other hand, receives indications of support, with users suggesting they would vote for Trump if he chooses DeSantis. However, doubts linger, with some users considering alternatives if DeSantis is not selected as the VP.

Kristi Noem: A Potential Trailblazer with Positive Support

Kristi Noem emerges as a potential favorite among online discussions. Users express strong support for her as Trump's VP, even envisioning her as the first female US President. Noem's positive reception indicates that she resonates well with online communities, positioning her as a potential trailblazer.

JD Vance: Mixed Sentiments and Criticism

JD Vance receives both positive and negative sentiments. Supporters see him as meeting all the requirements for Trump's VP, praising his loyalty, brilliance, toughness, energy, and patriotism. However, critics label him as someone willing to say anything to become VP.

Conclusion

As the online discussions unfold, it is evident that there is no definitive front-runner among the potential vice presidential nominees for President Trump. Mixed opinions surround each candidate, reflecting the complexities of choosing a running mate who can unite Trump's base. While some candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Kristi Noem enjoy positive sentiments, doubts persist about their suitability for the role. As discussions continue to evolve, it remains uncertain which candidate will ultimately garner the most support and become the favored choice for Vice President in the eyes of the public.

New Hampshire - What Happened

The New Hampshire GOP primary demonstrated a clear victory for Donald Trump, with his total votes exceeding the entire vote count of the 2016 primary.

Trump's overwhelming victory can be attributed to his strong ground effort and appeal among registered GOP voters. He won 74% of the registered GOP vote, demonstrating his enduring popularity within the Republican party. Conversely, Haley's campaign impressed with independents, winning 65% of their support. This suggests that Haley's message appeals to a broader base, potentially including some Democrats.

While it's hard to ascertain from the data provided whether Democrats were supporting Haley, her strong performance among independents suggests some cross-over appeal. Similarly, it's unclear which candidate attracted libertarian voters, but Trump's strong showing among registered GOP voters suggests he may have been their preferred choice.

What Was On The Ballot?

Without specific polling data on the top issues for Trump and Haley voters, it is difficult to determine what their key priorities were. However, given Trump's past campaigns and his base of support, it is reasonable to guess that issues like immigration, trade, and a strong economy were likely important to his supporters. Haley's supporters, on the other hand, may have been more attracted to her international experience and more traditional conservative stances.

It’s also worth noting that some comments suggest a portion of Libertarian voters might have supported Trump over Haley. This is indicative of Trump’s appeal to anti-establishment voters who prioritize issues such as individual liberties and small government, which are hallmarks of Libertarian ideology. The top three issues appear to be:

Trump

• Anti-establishment
• More conservative governance
• America-first policies

Haley

• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment
• Traditional GOP
• Challenging Trump’s control

However, there is a growing call among some voters for Haley to drop out of the primary. The argument is that the money being spent on her campaign could be better utilized in other crucial races, such as those for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, or gubernatorial seats. Trump is running unopposed in the Nevada Caucus and presumed to win all 26 delegates.

Nevada - What’s Next

Donald Trump's campaign has been marked by significant successes, making him the first non-sitting Republican candidate to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has effectively mobilized his base and resonated with voters, resulting in tangible victories. Nikki Haley's campaign appears to be facing challenges, despite a surge of Democratic votes in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. This perception of Haley as a 'swamp shill', as reflected in public sentiments, has also been detrimental to her campaign.

Trump vs Haley (Nevada)

How Do Voters See It?

Negative sentiments surrounding Haley's campaign have been increasing, with many believing that she has little chance of beating Trump and that her continued presence in the race is damaging to the GOP. These sentiments are further fueled by the belief that she will likely lose the primary in South Carolina, her home state.

In contrast, Trump's campaign is surrounded by mostly positive themes, with supporters praising his leadership and his potential to secure a landslide victory. Despite some criticisms about his focus on loyalty, his support levels seem to be consistently high.

Raising Trump support

• Strong leadership
• America-first policies
• Electability in November

Lowering Trump support

• Threat of potential indictments
• Perceived shift from traditional GOP values

Raising Haley support

• Fresh start in the GOP

Lowering Haley support

• Endorsing candidates against Trump
• Divisiveness within the party, Democrat in disguise
• Refusal to drop out

The New Hampshire GOP primary is garnering significant attention with key players including former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis seems to have contributed to Trump's edge in the race. Recent polling identifies Donald Trump receiving around 50% support, while MIG reporting is currently at 59%

Heading into the vote, Trump seems to have the support of the conservative base of the Republican party, while Haley seems to be the preferred choice for moderate Republicans and those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. There is also a significant percentage of the population open to a third-party candidate, as indicated by the readiness of the No Labels Unity Party to put forth a candidate if Haley does not get the GOP nomination.

Donald Trump's campaign appears to be gathering momentum, after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Many have speculated that this endorsement may cement Trump's standing in the race. The endorsement was hinted at by Rep. Matt Gaetz during a Trump event in Manchester, NH, which has generated much chatter in the political circuit.

On the other hand, Nikki Haley's campaign has been characterized by a mix of support and criticism. Haley, a self-proclaimed globalist, has been criticized for her association with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and their Agenda 2030, which some fear could massively limit personal freedoms. Her endorsement by Asa Hutchinson has also led to accusations that she is backed by elites.

Top Ten Discussions

1. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis.
2. The perceived bias in certain polls favoring Haley
3. The controversial tactics employed by MAGA extremists.
4. The potential of a third-party candidate by the No Labels Unity Party.
5. The public sentiment towards each candidate.
6. The potential of Haley beating Biden in the general election.
7. The divide among Republican voters.
8. Trump and Biden's close competition within the margin of error in some polls.
9. The possibility of a Biden/Trump rematch in the upcoming election.
10. The speculation about the potential failure of either Trump or Biden in certain areas.

Trump's recent historical win in Iowa seems to have bolstered his support in New Hampshire as well, with many staunch Republicans backing him as the only viable candidate who can beat President Biden in the general election. There's a strong sentiment among these supporters that Trump is the true defender of the American Constitution and the values it represents. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley have distinct campaign narratives and differing levels of support, which have been shaped by various factors, including their performances in the Iowa Caucus and the endorsement of Trump by Vivek Ramaswamy. Interestingly, there’s continued conversation of final weeks’ campaign spending and effect in the Iowa caucus.

• Trump’s campaign spent $3.5 million on advertising, securing 54,783 votes, which translates to $63.88 per vote. This efficient campaign spending demonstrates Trump's enduring popularity within the party.
• Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, spent $6.1 million for 22,803 votes in the Iowa Caucus, equating to $268 per vote.
• Nikki Haley’s campaign spent a significant $7.8 million in the Iowa Caucus to secure 20,446 votes, equating to $381.49 per vote.

Looking back at the results from the Iowa caucus, we see a trend of strong support for anti-establishment figures. If this sentiment carries over into New Hampshire, it could benefit Trump, who has long positioned himself as an outsider fighting against the "establishment." Trump’s support received an overnight bump of approximately 7% and is back to over 50%, mirroring his results of the Iowa Caucus. DeSantis, with his strong stance on state rights versus federal overreach, could also capitalize on this sentiment. Haley, however, may struggle if the New Hampshire electorate continues to lean anti-establishment.

What’s On The Ballot?

Online sentiment in New Hampshire indicates several topics which either increases support for Trump or decreases support for Haley, DeSantis:

• Globalism, Trade, and Foreign Relations - negatively impacting Haley due to perceived support for the World Economic Forum's Agenda 2030 and soft on China.
• Immigration - Online discussions suggest that immigration might be a key issue for voters, which may favor Trump more despite perception of Haley's toughness on the border,
• Candidate Credibility - Voters appear to be assessing the candidates on their perceived ability to effectively lead and manage the nation, as evident in the criticism of Haley and DeSantis.
• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment Sentiment - For some voters, their support for Haley seems to be driven more by their dislike for Trump than their liking for Haley.
• Evangelicals & Non-College Educated - Haley's lack of appeal to this demographic and Ramaswamy's appeal to this group suggests that their concerns and preferences are shaping the race.
• Political strategies - Voters are attentive to each candidate's strategy, as shown by the commentary on Haley's decision not to participate in the debates unless Trump does.

Specific issues may vary between states and individuals, but there is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change among the GOP primary voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similar to the Iowa voters, there is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change in the government. This is evidenced by the call for a strong candidate who can defeat Biden and the concerns about election integrity.

Trump’s dominant win in Iowa has set a high bar, while DeSantis and Haley are offering distinct alternatives to Trump's style and politics. In a curious twist, some Democrats are reportedly willing to caucus for Haley if it boosts her chances against Trump, even though they plan to vote for Biden in the general election. This underlines the complexity of the political landscape and the high stakes of this election. It also demonstrates the level of opposition to a potential Trump nomination within sections of both the Democratic and Republican electorate.

Candidate Approval - Trump Alone Above 50%

The criticism of both Haley and DeSantis for representing "same old" politics suggests that there may be a desire for a more non-traditional candidate. New Hampshire’s primary is shaping up to be a closely contested race. Trump's strong, albeit divisive, support base, DeSantis's as-yet unclear position, and Haley's potential appeal to cross-party voters could all impact the eventual outcome.

• Nikki Haley, despite underperforming in the Iowa caucus, seems to have a unique appeal, especially among Democrats who seem to prefer her over President Biden. Her campaign has focused on her electability, with canvassers in New Hampshire emphasizing her potential to defeat Biden in a general election. However, there are also voters who have expressed strong opposition to her, using the hashtag #NeverNikki, suggesting a divided public sentiment towards her candidacy.

From the online discussions about the Argentine presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa, latest MIG data reflected

• Significant increase in Ideologies, Int’l Affairs, and Security Issues
• No major decreases across other topics
• Ideologies may have been seen as the deciding factor in the late stages over Fiscal Policy

Ideologies

Agent of Change, Concern

• Supporters excited for anti-woke, anti-left 
• Seen as beacon of freedom 
• Traditional rallying cry used online “Vive La Libetard” (long live freedom) 
• Some voters worry for return to neoliberal policies 
• Some voters also dissaprove of confrontational style 

Of note, a sharp increase in sentiment (and volume) was only reflected concerning Milei on the day of the election.

Fiscal Policy

Less Discussed, But Less Disliked

• Going back to October 31st, the average sentiment scores for Fiscal Policy were
  • Massa: 38
  • Milei: 42

Many commenters express criticism towards the previous leadership of Sergio Massa and Alberto Fernández, blaming them for high inflation, poverty, unemployment, security issues, and a significant deficit. Milei is seen as promising to lower inflation and fix the fiscal deficit. However, some commenters express concern about Milei's plans to privatize public companies like YPF, Télam, the Public TV, and National Radio.

General Election Analysis

Data appears to reflect a general tone, which is most voters sought a change in the status quo (economics, corruption).

MIG data indicating a Melei lead was accurate to the final vote tally

• MIG reporting
  • Melei 53%
  • Massa 47%
• Final vote
  • Melei 56%
  • Massa 44%

The overall view of Milei is mixed. Some comments express hope and congratulation, recognizing his victory and looking forward to the future under his leadership. There are also comments that seem to suggest his win was due to demagoguery and gained votes from traditional right-wing supporters and a high proportion of Schiaretti's supporters. Some express caution, stating that they hope Argentinians understand that the process under his leadership will be long.

Conclusion

• For the final ten days, there was a near statistical tie in Talking About and Head-to-Head, prior to a clear break at the end
  • Talking About
    • Massa: 3351/day
    • Melei: 3328/day
  • Head-to-Head
    • Massa: 50%
    • Melei: 50%
• The online discussions show a clear dissatisfaction toward Massa, many of the comments seeking change from the status quo pertaining to the economic conditions (inflation, poverty and unemployment rates), and for increasing the fiscal deficit.
• They also accuse him of corruption and deception. Some comments suggest that if Massa wins, the situation will worsen.
• Some users express support for Milei, blaming current economic problems on populist governments and expressing hope that Milei could bring about change.
  • e.g. proposed policies could reduce poverty and improve security
• Others express concerns about Milei's plans, suggesting that they might lead to unemployment and other economic issues.
• Melei is also accused of being associated with fascism, with some commenters express concerns about him allowing fascists to run rampant.
  • e.g. Some Melei supporters want to suppress freedom of expression.

Overall, the majority of comments seem to indicate a preference for Milei over Massa, driven primarily by dissatisfaction with the current economic situation they attribute to Massa's leadership.

Massa is criticized for his perceived hypocrisy such as his expensive Dolce & Gabbana jeans, which they view as contradictory to his image as a candidate who cares for the poor. They also criticize his supporters for protesting against insecurity, which they believe would only be a problem if Milei wins.

Milei on the other hand, is accused of being associated with fascism. Some commenters express concerns about him allowing fascists to run rampant. He is also criticized for having supporters who want to suppress freedom of expression.

Sergio Massa is viewed by some as using the state for his own benefit and the benefit of his friends. He is accused of not genuinely believing in social justice and using it as an argument to maintain his power. However, others express support for Massa, appreciating that he is not associated with certain ideologies or politics they disapprove of. There are also mentions of Massa receiving death threats and expressions of support in the face of such threats.

Javier Milei is seen by some as a champion of liberalism, with claims that he has done more for the people than any other politician by showing them a possible reality and encouraging hope. However, he also has critics who accuse him of not believing in democracy, the state, the nation, and social justice, and only believing in market freedom. Some criticize his proposals as a recipe for social and economic chaos. Others argue that Milei is not liberal but a right-wing conservative neoliberal, and fear a return to the neoliberal models of past presidents if he wins. However, Milei also has supporters who see him as the only candidate with plans to recover sovereignty and respect diverse lifestyles, and who believe that the future of Argentina is liberal.

Public Comments

• 🦁‼️ Los gorilas del mundo rendidos a los pies de Milei: los festejos de Bukele, Bolsonaro y Zelenski 👉 Vox, Elon Musk y Donald Trump también se sumaron a la victoria de La Libertad Avanza. (💣 Faltó Darth Vader)
• La logica indica que Milei va a ser Zelensky y va a terminar mal, o va a ser Boris Johnson y se va a diluir en su extremismo. En ambos casos lo van a repudiar los mismos que lo votaron.
• En este país no se habla de esto. No hablan los medios, no lo repiten 24hs como otras cosas. No lo ves en @c5n ni en @todonoticias día y noche. De esto no habla Massa, no habla Milei, ni Macri, Ni Larreta, Ni Alberto... La ciudad de Buenos Aires es sionista GAZA 💔
• me van a fallar los de milei si ahora en el bunker no cantan "anda a ver a una bruja, anda a ver a un doctor que te saque del orto la pija del leon"
• Pasen la data!.. igual es tristísimo ver a alguien tan preparado, que termine en una secta de delincuentes!😩😎 " SI GANA MILEI Quemó TODOS MIS LIBROS, TITULO DE HARDVARD Y MI TESIS DOCTORAL DE MAS DE 600 PAGINAS.." " YO CREO QUE NO VA OCURRIR..." (Atilio Boron) así dijo está eminencia, Politólogo y Sociólogo Ultrakirchnerista QUEREMOS SABER CUADO Y EN QUE LUGAR VA PRENDER LA HOGUERA
• Gracias Rusa linda Ganó Milei, sumando casi la totalidad de votos de la derecha tradicional de JxC y una muy alta proporción de Schiaretti. Con demagogia, ganaron parte del voto popular, contra un gobierno donde los ricos se enriquecieron y perdieron los que trabajan, producto del pacto con el FMI.
• JAJAJAJA Si gana Milei, solo ruego que los argentinos entiendan que el proceso es largo.
• Vos no laburas y vivis del Estado, el FMI presta plata al 4 por ciento, quien la pidio es el peronismo, al que vos no nombras obviamente porque sos el vagon de cola eterno, la putita del fascismo, hija de puta Ganó Milei, sumando casi la totalidad de votos de la derecha tradicional de JxC y una muy alta proporción de Schiaretti. Con demagogia, ganaron parte del voto popular, contra un gobierno donde los ricos se enriquecieron y perdieron los que trabajan, producto del pacto con el FMI.
• @SergioChouza @JMilei Tu pollo pide licencia y huye, pero seguiremos pagando su plan Platita que son 3 puntos del PBI y deja un déficit 2024 de -8% del PBI; similar al del 2020 cuando su gobierno que se va no nos dejaba trabajar y producir, REBIÉN NOS IBA PAYASO 🤡

The Big Picture

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sees a boost in Iowa after landing a coveted endorsement from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds this week, but he still faces a towering challenge from Donald Trump in the state's critical caucus.

The Details

• Reynolds, who holds an 81% approval rating in Iowa, heaped praise on DeSantis at a GOP event near Des Moines. “He fought for parents’ rights in schools, implemented the toughest abortion restrictions in the country, and brought law and order back to the Sunshine State,” she said.
• Former President Trump got early wind of the endorsement, writing on Truth Social the day before Reynolds’ endorsement, “If and when Kim Reynolds of Iowa endorses Ron DeSanctimonious, who is absolutely dying in the polls both in Iowa and Nationwide, it will be the end of her political career in that MAGA would never support her again, just as MAGA will never support DeSanctimonious again.”
• Trump won the 2016 and 2020 Iowa caucuses, but Reynolds’ endorsement may lead to a tightening race shaping up in 2024 between Trump and DeSantis.

Highly Unusual

• Reynolds endorsement is a serious break from Iowa caucus norms-Iowa governors have historically stayed neutral in the caucus and avoided endorsing candidates.

Movement

A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence to monitor and database the support and sentiment of candidates, finds that DeSantis has already seen a boost in Iowa after Reynolds’ endorsement.

• Analyzing online discussions of GOP primary candidates in Iowa, MIG’s report averaged positive and negative comments to determine support for all candidates and found that DeSantis doubled his support amongst Iowans this week.
• Iowans are well aware of Reynold’s decision to throw support behind the Florida Governor, with “endorsement” being the most frequently discussed topic amongst Iowans discussing the Presidential candidates remaining-ahead of other issues like race relations and abortion.
• While DeSantis likely benefited from a strong debate performance as well, DeSantis began trending upward prior to the debate.
• The day of Reynold’s endorsement, DeSantis climbed from 16% support on Sunday, November 5th, to 25% support on Monday September 6th.
• As of Friday, November 10th, DeSantis currently holds 31% support amongst Iowans discussing GOP candidates online.

Yes, but...

Trump still remains ahead in MIG’s report and other Iowa polls. Trump holds 47% support according to MIG’s report-a 16% gap DeSantis will have to close before the January 15th Iowa Caucus.

Between the Lines

The Reynolds endorsement may matter most for DeSantis' battle with Nikki Haley for second place.

• The former UN ambassador was the center of much attention at the GOP’s Wednesday Debate in Miami as she and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy traded emotionally charged blows.
• However, MIG’s report found only a 3% bump for Haley in Iowa support, from 6% to 9%, post debate.

A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence to monitor and database the support and sentiment of candidates, adds to growing evidence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s potency in a general presidential election. 

• Analyzing online discussions of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and RFK Jr, MIG’s report averaged positive and negative comments to determine support for all three candidates and found that RFK Jr. secured 23% support across 7 states (Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Texas).

Recall that… 

• When Kennedy was still running in the Democratic primary, Kennedy found sanctuary in Republican media. Eager to compound Biden's cratering popularity amongst Democrats, Republicans amplified Kennedy's message. They even selected the Democrat scion as a witness to testify before the House subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which garnered 2 million views on YouTube. 

Shifting gears.. 

• Kennedy declared on October 9th that he was dropping his bid for Democratic presidential nominee, and would run as an Independent. Republicans quickly pounced, with Trump spokesman Steven Cheung telling CNN, “The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions.” 

Indicators and Warnings… 

• Last month, polling from USA Today/Suffolk showed Kennedy earning 13% of the vote in a three way match up between him, Biden, and Trump. 
• In a troubling sign for the Trump campaign, voters that said they would otherwise support the Republican nominee backed Kennedy 2 to 1 over those that said they would vote for the Democratic nominee without the option of Kennedy as a third party candidate. 
• Adding to growing Republican fears of a spoiler candidate, campaign finance records show that former Trump donors are giving to Kennedy at a higher rate than Democrat donors are. 

Zooming in… 

• The 2024 election already shows signs of being as razor-thin as the previous presidential election, making Kennedy poised to potentially be the most impactful third-party candidate since Ross Perot. 
• MIG’s report finds that Kennedy garners nearly 30% support in Nevada, where Biden beat Trump by just 3% in 2020.

• While Florida has been considered less and less of a battleground state since Republicans’ double digit victories in the 2022 midterms, Trump won Florida by just 3.36% in 2020. MIG’s report shows Kennedy securing 29% support amongst Florida voters who will likely already be primed to resonate with Kennedy’s criticisms of pandemic overreach after re-electing Ron DeSantis as Governor by a 19 point margin in 2022. 

Yes, but.. 

• Kennedy has also shown prowess in cutting into the Democratic voter base as well, with Quinnipiac’s latest poll finding Kennedy securing 38% support amongst 18-34 year olds, while Biden secured 32% amongst Gen Z and Millennials. 
• In the same poll, Kennedy and Biden have razor thin margins amongst Hispanics, with Kennedy garnering 33% of the vote to Biden’s 36%. Biden has a wider share of support with black voters, but Kennedy showed strength here too with 24% support to Biden’s 61%. 

Though Kennedy faces steep obstacles to breaking through America’s polarized two-party system, mounting evidence of a close 2024 election and Kennedy’s growing popularity with disillusioned independents makes writing off Kennedy's impact foolish.

Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a recent Media Intelligence Group report. This data lines up with recent Reuters/Ipsos polling showing Biden’s approval rating at a low of 39% since April.

• MIG data is consistent with surveys by The New York Times, Yahoo Finance and others showing Trump edging out Biden by a few percentage points in head-to-head matchups.
• The former president appears to have an advantage among key demographics including independents, rural voters and working-class whites.

30-Day Sentiment Averages

In the last 30 days, MIG data shows Trump gaining higher support averages than Biden.

 In addition, Trump is gaining noticeably higher sentiments in Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. 

What Voters Are Saying

Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling reveals Biden hitting a very low approval rating of 39% at the beginning of November. Diving deeper, MIG data shows some of the reasons voters are unhappy with Biden.

 Voter Negativity Toward Biden

• Criticism of Biden, accusing him of supporting genocide, aiding Hamas, and mismanaging the Israel situation.
• Biden receives negativity from both sides regarding Ukraine. Some say he has deceivedthe
• American people and over-funded Ukraine, while others lament that he has not done enough. Critics also blame Biden for high inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing gas prices.
• Backlash for high national debt and accusations Biden is negatively impacting the housing market and food prices.
• Displeasure overall for “Bidenomics.”
• There is still severe dissatisfaction with Biden’s perceived mishandling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
• Many voters argue that the Biden administration has actively encouraged illegal immigration and
• compromised border security.
• There are also concerns about Biden family corruption and calls for the Justice Department to act and investigate.

 Criticisms of Trump

• Despite a slim lead in support sentiment, MIG data shows voters are also divided on Trump with some asserting he will likely not be able to win against Biden.
• There are still many concerns over Trump’s indictments and possible legal ramifications prior to the election.
• Many voters express positivity towards the Trump economy, but he also receives criticism for contributing to the national debt.
• In recent weeks, some of Trump’s comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict have caused negativity.
• Many voters still feel Trump has such bad character that he should not be permitted to serve as president again.
• There are expressions that the MAGA movement and Trump himself are racist bigots.

The Outlook for Both Candidates

• Overall, support numbers for Biden and Trump have shown Trump with a lead for the last 30 days.
• Voters give Trump higher marks on core issues like the economy, immigration and national security.
• Though both are significantly unpopular with certain groups, Biden suffersadditional doubts about his age and mental fitness; Trump maintains staunch support from his Republican base. Trump still faces considerable legal vulnerabilities that could still dampen his standing.
• Biden retains a slightly more favorable image among moderates and is less divisive among Democrats.