Conversations after the first presidential debate unleashed fears about President Joe Biden's mental acuity. The president’s lackluster debate performance confirms his fitness as a focal point or worry among media outlets and Democratic Party officials.

Following the CNN debate, there are a range of reactions from the public and various political stakeholders. There’s significant concern within the Democratic Party about Biden’s cognitive capabilities, but this concern does not seem to be uniform among Democratic voters.

Many Democratic supporters actively defend Biden, highlighting his policy successes against derisive critiques from his Republican opponents. They echo Biden’s narratives about the stock market, government figures in jobs markets, and strategic actions in the oil market. These supporters tend to emphasize that, despite concerns over his age and mental acuity, Biden aligns closely with American values they cherish. They say he remains a preferable candidate compared to Donald Trump.

On the other hand, there are also critical voices within the Democratic base who are becoming increasingly vocal about their doubts regarding Biden’s ability to serve another term effectively. These critics suggest exploring alternative candidates to ensure strong leadership moving forward.

Among the broader public discourse, Biden’s age and mental sharpness frequently surface as contentious topics. This ongoing debate over his cognitive fitness seems to reflect deeper divisions within the party and among the electorate on the future direction of Democratic leadership.

There is also a conspicuous trend of partisanship coloring these discussions. Supporters of Biden often juxtapose his perceived shortcomings against what they consider the more severe failings of former President Donald Trump and his supporters. This ongoing comparison underlines much of the sentiment within Democratic circles that, regardless of Biden’s condition, he represents a far superior option to any Republican candidate.

The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is scheduled for tomorrow. Americans have been taking to social media expressing interest in key topics and how they believe the general election will impact their lives. People also speculate about the performance of both candidates, wondering if Joe Biden will be able to make it through despite his clear decline. Others wonder if Donald Trump will be unfairly treated by moderators or have his mic cut off, despite his vast popular support.

Republicans focus on illegal immigration, its economic impact, and Democrats prioritizing illegal immigrants over Americans. They also critique policies like student loan forgiveness and other economic issues.

Right leaning voters express frustration and distrust toward the Biden administration, advocating for tougher border policies and fiscal conservatism. Many firmly oppose current approaches to immigration, the economy, and international relations.

Democrats defend Biden’s measures as steps toward social justice and economic equity. They support immigration reform and policies aiding debt relief and pathways to citizenship. They are generally optimistic about the debate, hoping it will highlight Biden's achievements and reinforcing progressive values.

Independents and moderates have varied opinions. Many are concerned about economic management, immigration, and policy effectiveness. They seek clarity on policy impacts from the debate, with some undecided and awaiting more substantive discussions before finalizing their stance.

Economic Issues

Discussion Trends

Economic Policies and Tax Management

• Republicans argue current policies are creating economic instability and unfairly burdening taxpayers.
• Democrats support policies like student loan forgiveness and the Inflation Reduction Act, believing they reduce the economic burden on average Americans.
• Independents are looking for clear economic policies from candidates that address inflation, taxation fairness, and job market improvements.

Inflation

• Republicans blame the current administration for high inflation and believe previous policies kept inflation and gas prices lower.
• Democrats emphasize long-term investments and measures to revitalize the economy, suggesting current policies will benefit the economy in the future.
• Independents are concerned about high inflation and government inaction, seeking detailed plans from candidates.

Trump vs. Biden

• Republicans highlight greater economic stability and lower inflation under the Trump administration.
• Democrats argue Biden is correcting past missteps and making long-term investments.
• Independents are undecided and looking forward to upcoming debates for clearer comparisons.

Sentiment Trends

Republicans

• Predominantly dissatisfied with the current administration.
• Believe Trump provided more economic stability.
• Concerned about inflation, increased crime rates, and immigration policies.
• View policies like student loan forgiveness as economically destabilizing.

Democrats

• Support Biden’s efforts to reduce economic burdens.
• Emphasize alleged job market gains and infrastructure development.
• View policies like student loan forgiveness as necessary for economic inclusivity.
• Believe the Biden administration is addressing climate change and revitalizing the economy.

Independents

• Skeptical about both political parties.
• Concerned about high inflation and government inefficacy.
• Undecided and awaiting the debate to form opinions.
• Seeking clear and detailed economic and social policies from candidates.
• View debates as critical for understanding policy impacts and candidate capabilities.

Border Security

Discussion Trends

Immigration Policy and Citizenship Pathways

• Republicans have a strong negative reaction to Biden’s plan for citizenship for 500,000 illegal immigrants.
• They express concern about vote manipulation, crime, and economic strain.
• They call for stricter immigration controls, border security, and broad deportation measures.
• Democrats support policies prioritizing humanitarian values and family unity.
• They emphasize a moral obligation to provide protection and opportunities.
• Democrats show an internal disagreement on implications for domestic policy and public welfare systems.
• Independents have mixed responses oscillating between socio-economic concerns and humane treatment of immigrants.
• They call for a pragmatic approach, balancing border security and addressing the status of long-term illegal immigrants.
• There is frustration over the lack of bipartisan solutions and politicization of immigration.

Border Security and Legal Process

• Republicans and some Independents emphasize stronger border security and deportation illegal immigrants, especially those with criminal records.
• Democrats and more progressive Independents advocate for comprehensive immigration reform, ensuring border security and a fair path to citizenship.

Crime

• Many people express increased crime among illegal immigrants as an emotionally charged topic, especially among Republicans and Independents.
• Recent violent crimes committed by illegal immigrants intensify calls for tougher immigration policies.

Economic Impact

• There are concerns about the strain on social security, healthcare, and public services.
• Republicans and Independents stress safeguarding resources for American citizens.
• Democrats highlight their belief in the positive economic contributions of illegal immigrants and call for their integration into the formal economy.

Sentiment Trends

Republicans

• Overwhelmingly negative sentiment towards Biden's immigration policy.
• Fear of increased crime and economic strain, with accusations of vote manipulation using illegal immigrants.
• Strong advocacy for stricter immigration controls and border security.

Democrats

• Support for the Biden administration’s policies based on humanitarian values and family unity.
• Internal caution regarding domestic policy implications and public welfare systems.
• Emphasis on balancing security with compassion in immigration reform.

Independents

• Mixed perspectives with a pragmatic approach to border security and humane treatment for immigrants.
• Frustration with bipartisan failures to address underlying immigration issues constructively.
• Calls for detailed policy clarification and practical solutions.

Political Ideologies

Discussion Trends

Political Polarization

• Republicans express strong support for Trump and opposition to Biden, focusing on critiques of Biden's policies on immigration, the economy, and healthcare.
• Democrats defend Biden's record and attack Trump’s character and previous presidency, emphasizing reproductive rights, healthcare, and preserving democratic norms.
• Independents show frustration with the partisan nature of politics and are undecided, waiting for debates to form opinions.

Social Security and Medicare

• Both Republicans and Democrats accuse each other of threatening these programs.

Economic Concerns

• Issues like inflation and tax policies are central among Democrats and Republicans, reflecting anxiety about future financial stability.

Debate Expectations

• Voters have high expectations for the debates, viewing them as crucial for undecided voters, especially Independents, to make final decisions.

Sentiment Trends

Republicans

• Distrust mainstream media, suspecting conspiracies.
• Feel a sense of urgency and anger, viewing Biden as a threat to America’s future.

Democrats

• Emphasize reproductive rights, healthcare, and democratic norms.
• Concerned about GOP misinformation and threats to social security.
• Fear a second Trump term, viewing it as a potential catastrophe for democracy and social progress.

Independents

• Skeptical and disillusioned with both major parties.
• Frustrated with intense partisanship.
• Express high expectations for clarity and policy specifics in debates.

Security Issues

Discussion Trends

Foreign Policies and Geopolitical Tensions

• Republicans have strong critiques of Biden's foreign policies, particularly concerning Ukraine and Israel.
• They compare Trump's approach, viewing Biden's policies as weakening U.S. foreign policy.
• There are concerns about emboldened adversaries like Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and a potential for World War III.
• Democrats defend Biden's strategic continuity and responses to long-standing international threats.
• There are internal divisions on the Israel-Palestine conflict, with progressives questioning traditional support for Israel.
• Democrats generally support Biden's actions against Russian aggression in Ukraine and maintaining alliances.
• Independents express concerns about escalation in global conflicts and dissatisfaction with bipartisan approaches.
• They call for a more nuanced and less interventionist foreign policy.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict

• Both sides debate whether U.S. strategy is too aggressive or appropriately defensive.

U.S. Relationship with Israel

• There are growing concerns over recent foreign policy decisions, including withholding ammunition and Middle East policy.

Alliances Against the U.S.

• Most Americans fear geopolitical consequences involving Russia, China, and North Korea.

Domestic Implications

• Voters worry over military spending and economic stability resulting from foreign policy decisions.

Sentiment Trends

Republicans

• Overwhelmingly negative sentiment towards Biden's foreign policy.
• Dissatisfaction with current Ukraine and Israel strategies.
• Fear Biden's policies are bringing the world closer to major conflict.
• Hope for a return to Trump's diplomacy to stabilize geopolitical tensions.

Democrats

• Largely support Biden's foreign policy actions, though with some internal divisions.
• Emphasis on strategic continuity and necessary responses to threats.
• Tension within the party over support for Israel, with progressives advocating for Palestinian rights.
• Support for efforts to counter Russian aggression and maintain alliances.

Independents

• Mixed perspectives with general skepticism towards both parties.
• Concerns about global conflict escalation and dissatisfaction with current foreign policy management.
• Calls for a less interventionist approach and more effective international relations.

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Reporting and polling services continually address election fraud as a worrying issue for American voters. Sentiment about election integrity and election turmoil in the U.S. is notably divided and charged with apprehension. Some reputable polling services indicate as much as 66% of Americans fear election cheating could impact the 2024 general election. MIG Reports analysis confirms Americans are indeed overwhelmingly worried about election integrity.

Overall Analysis

Election integrity concerns often range from potential system manipulations to various forms of fraud and cheating. This apprehension is particularly pronounced among Trump supporters—however, they are not alone in their worries.

Those who assert the 2020 election was rife with irregularities and fraudulent activity, believe it contributed to President Joe Biden’s victory. They cite incidents involving electronic voting machines, mail-in ballots, other anomalies in the process, and allegations between political figures and institutions as evidence of systemic corruption.

This prevalent fear underscores the deep mistrust within the electorate regarding the fairness and legitimacy of elections. It also reflects broader anxieties about the integrity of democratic processes.

Election Integrity Views are Ideological

Online discourse on social media and other public forums show significant political polarization about election integrity issues.

Conservative or Right Leaning Views

• Many believe in widespread election fraud during the 2020 election and potentially the upcoming 2024 election.
• There are concerns over mail-in ballots, electronic voting machines, and voter fraud.
• Conservatives view the current administration and Democratic figures as undermining election integrity.
• Many on the right believe the 2020 election was rigged and future elections are at risk without stricter measures.

Liberal or Left Leaning Views

• Liberals usually dismiss claims of widespread election fraud as misinformation or partisan strategy.
• They emphasize a lack of credible evidence for extensive election tampering, despite a lack of investigation, including by SCOTUS, in refusing to hear election fraud cases.
• Voters on the left focus on preserving democratic norms by protecting voting rights and ensuring broad voter participation.
• They see election fraud rhetoric as a tactic to justify restrictive voting laws that could disenfranchise minorities.

Demographic Patterns

• Those who believe election fraud is a serious issues are typically older, rural, more conservative, support former President Trump, are skeptical of mainstream media, and prefer alternative news sources.
• Those who say election fraud is not real tend to be younger, urban, progressive, they trust traditional media, emphasize evidence-based arguments, and advocate for rule of law.

Current public discourse about the Democratic Party potentially replacing President Joe Biden as their nominee is slowly growing. Discussion is heterogeneous and fragmented, leaning heavily on individual political biases and perceptions. However, there is not significant or concentrated chatter suggesting the Democratic Party is considering replacing Biden.s

Several mainstream media reports have discussed this issue during the Democratic primary, specifically as the “Uncommitted” movement has gained steam. MIG Reports performed an initial study of online commentary to find insights into voter sentiment about replacing Joe Biden.

Google Search Trends previously showed an increase in searches for "Uncommitted Movement” and "replace Biden.” Often, these searches mirror primary election days. For the first time in 2024, "replace Biden” outpaced searches for "Uncommitted Movement.”

Online discourse shows low volume in several topics related to the nomination process. However, the notable disastrous swing in sentiment may indicate the discussion, while still a niche topic, may be heading to an inflection point.

Based on the two datasets, it is possible to extrapolate that voters are becoming curious about the feasibility of replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. This may prove to be one more chaotic element to an already unprecedented nomination process. In addition, Biden is set to be nominated via Zoom despite no COVID-lockdowns and growing voter dissatisfaction.

Voters are Increasingly Rejecting Biden

Online conversations reveal a predominantly negative sentiment towards the Democratic Party and Joe Biden. Most of the discussion focuses on allegations of platform discrepancies and lies from Biden’s administration.

Other prominent themes include accusations of corruption, communism, socialism, and a perceived bias in favor of Democrats in Hunter Biden's conviction. Several voters suggest the Democratic Party is no longer representing the views of its traditional base. There is criticism for perceived radical or extremist views within the party. Voters feel alienated and claim the party has diverged from its original moderate standpoint to adopt more radical ideologies.

Many also express a belief that the Democratic Party wants the “destruction of America.” This further indicates the extent of the negative sentiment as people view the Democratic party and Joe Biden as untrustworthy and power-hungry.

Voters accuse Democrats and the media of censorship, particularly surrounding the Hunter Biden laptop story. Politicians, news media, and government agents are being accused of participating in misinformation and election rigging.

There are only a few social media posts defending Biden and the Democratic party. These threads highlight some positive aspects of Biden's tenure. However, even within these comments, there's considerable criticism about how Biden is handling issues like the border, Israel, and the economy.

Prevalent negative sentiment implies a significant level of dissatisfaction with the current administration and the Democratic Party. Although this is not a comprehensive view of all Americans nor a scientific study, it provides some insight into current discussions and sentiment trends among Americans online. It's important to acknowledge that social media discussions often skew negative and may not accurately represent the views of the wider population.

Recent reporting identified President Joe Biden as suffering his lowest approval numbers from voters at around 37.4%. Americans say they’re dissatisfied with the current administration because of multiple issues, which ae causing the dwindling approval rating. Some of the top issues include the economy, immigration, impeachment efforts, and allegations against his son, Hunter Biden.

The Economy

Many Americans are frustrated with the current economic situation. They believe their wages are not increasing in line with the rising cost of living. Some feel they are working mainly to pay bills, further exasperating their discontent with Biden's policy. Accusations around Biden favoring special interests and corporations over everyday people are also adding to the negative sentiment.

Immigration

Concerns around immigration policy and border security, particularly related to the U.S.-Mexico border, are contributing to Biden's low approval rating. Biden has been criticized for the problems persisting at the border despite his rule change and executive orders.

Impeachment Efforts

Some discussions focus on efforts by Republicans, led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and others, to impeach Biden. This has sparked debate around the validity and evidence behind these efforts. Many express frustration at the perceived pettiness and partisanship of these moves even as they have been largely unsuccessful.

Family Ties

Hunter Biden’s business dealings have also drawn scrutiny and criticism. Some Americans believe not enough is being done to investigate Hunter Biden and that Joe Biden should be held accountable too. Conversely, others point out that Biden has not interfered in ongoing investigations or litigation involving his son, showing integrity and respect for the justice system.

Israel-Palestine

Many online discussions highlight divisions in the Democratic Party regarding the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Democratic voters will likely continue to be split by this conflict, especially with no ability to offset emotional stressors which have helped drive the abysmal approval numbers.

Establishment Sentiment

There is a significant amount of misinformation and extreme views circulating, some accusing Biden of totalitarian rule and election fraud, even leading to aggressive and threatening comments.

Furthermore, the prevalent perception that Biden is not doing enough for the American people seems to be negatively impacting his approval rating. Whether accurate or not, this perception can influence how people view his performance, which is reflected in polls.

Democratic Perspectives

While his supporters are vocally in favor of President Biden amid dropping approval ratings, their reasons are less nuanced and not universal.

• Dismissive: Many argue President Biden is a “clean politician,” capable of shaking off any negative allegations.
• Mainstream Media’s Fault: Some blame Biden's unpopularity on factors such as media exaggerations and hypocrisy.
• Reality Check: Some admit Biden faces a tough battle in countering these negative perceptions.

Issues that will likely continue impacting Biden’s approval include:

• Continued border crossing numbers in the face of Biden’s meager response to control the border.
• CPI and other inflation reporting continually adjusted.
• Democratic National Convention nominating Joe Biden as the presidential candidate via Zoom.

America’s reaction to European elections reveals a politically and ideologically polarized discourse. This is especially true for right-leaning Americans and their response toward left-leaning opponents. There is a strong anti-leftist or anti-communist milieu, referring to the left as a threat to western governance and associating it with socialism and communism.

Americans are increasingly expressing anti-woke sentiment, attributing alleged election losses in Europe to “woke liberalism.” Wokeness is portrayed as a harmful force that is destroying countries and weakening societies. Some are also critical of the invocation of political correctness in comedy, seeing it as an infringement on artistic freedom.

The topic of free speech is a major trend in these discussions. Many emphasize the importance of free speech, yet there's a discernible disagreement about where boundaries are. Discussions of boundaries are mostly brought up by those with leftist positions since they view censorship as necessary in more circumstances than fervent free speech supporters.

Questions of free speech limitations are also brought up in reference to viral videos of German youth who support the AfD (Alternate for Germany, a right-wing populist party) recreating a nightclub song with the words, “Ausländer raus, Deutschland den Deutschen,” which mean, “Foreigners out, Germany for Germans.”

Anti-globalist sentiments also emerge in these discussions, with many accusing leftist globalists of funding propaganda and divisive rhetoric. Some people tie this to broader conspiracies involving George Soros and other alleged puppeteers of globalist disruptions.

Furthermore, there are numerous references to immigration debates, with some claiming mainstream media in the West is hiding the negative consequences of immigration. This is tied into broader concerns about Islam's influence in the West, with some viewing it as contrary to Western and liberal societal norms.

Sentiment Trends

Negativity To Biden: Conversations largely display a negative sentiment toward President Biden, reflecting dissatisfaction with his term so far. The significant points of criticism include how he is handling the border crisis, his actions or perceived inactions, and his policies.

Anti-Establishment: There is also a pronounced displeasure with the establishment in general, encompassing both parties. Americans express a desire for new leadership beyond the traditional dichotomy of the Democrats and Republicans.

Sentiment To Trump: Feelings toward Trump remain polarized, with some expressing enduring support for him and others criticizing and pointing to his alleged felonies and impeachment.

Sentiment Toward Voting: Conversations reveal a mixture of commitment to vote, a desire for change, and skepticism toward current available options.

Immigration

In light of European politics, American discussions show a pro-Trump sentiment. Many support his rhetoric on immigration policy, particularly his promise for a more stringent stance on illegal immigration. This perspective dovetails with the trend of European governments leaning further to the right in their political ideology and desiring stricter immigration controls.

There are many comments, "Great to see people all over the world voting for freedom and their own nation and a controlled border! Trump is the next 1 to win," and "Want the illegals gone - VOTE TRUMP!" This discourse reveals a positive sentiment toward Trump's policies and leadership and a desire to prevent Europe's immigration struggles from repeating in the U.S. These trends show a strong approval for stricter borders and the preference for national interests.

Much of the discussions centered around deportation policies, with many Americans supporting strong borders and deporting illegal immigrants. This sentiment is captured in comments like, "Stand with Trump we have a country to save. 🚨 JUST IN — CBS POLL: Over 60% of voters support Donald Trump's plan to deport ALL illegal aliens," and "Finish the wall and deport them to the Mexico side of it." Overall, there is a vocal desire for stronger national security and concern over the perceived economic and societal impacts of illegal immigration.

Former President Donald Trump’s rally in Las Vegas generated much buzz and social media discussion, including a 2-point increase in his lead against Joe Biden for the presidential election. MIG Reports analysis of voter reactions to the rally indicates a positive view of Trump’s appeal.

Discussion Trends

Many Americans are talking about the perceived faults of the Biden administration with hashtags like #BidenBorderCrisis, #BidenDementia, #Bidenomics, #bidenflation. They also voice criticism of Democrats more generally. Voters express a desire for Trump to provide solutions to these issues they view as caused by President Biden.

Title IX and girls' sports is also a trending topic. Following Trump's comments about women's sports at the rally, supporters are echoing his sentiment. They agree with the assertion that men should not participate in women's sports events.

Another notable discussion trend involves statements from Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). Some on her side fear she could be jailed if Trump wins another term. These suggestions have led to a negative response from Trump supporters who view many AOC comments as overblown or who hold critical views of AOC herself.

Sentiment Trends

Voter sentiment toward Trump’s Las Vegas rally is largely positive toward the presumptive GOP nominee. Supporters express admiration for him, describing him as a "fighter," a "proven winner,” and a "leader." Negatively charged language mostly used against figures in the Democratic party such as Biden or Ocasio-Cortez.

Negative sentiment focuses on important problems in America for voters like the border crisis, economic worries, and alleged freedom of speech issues – all of which were discussed during Trump's rally.

Other points of discussion include:

Biden Administration Criticisms

• Negative sentiment toward Biden and Harris, particularly criticizing the action of their administration.
• The country's current state, Trump’s potential nickname for Biden, “Crooked Joe,” the legitimacy of Biden’s election win, and comparisons between Trump and Biden’s leadership.
• There is significant criticism towards Biden himself, focusing on his cognitive abilities, election legitimacy, and leadership performance. People use terms like "criminal" and "liar" when speaking about him.
• Kamala Harris also faces heavy criticism, with many attributing the administration's perceived failures to both her and Biden.
• Some Independents say they prefer Trump over Biden, despite not being strong Trump supporters.

Trump Supporter Reactions

• Voters express unity and strength with phrases like "MAGA STRONG" and appreciate the rally despite challenges like high temperatures.
• Negative online comments label Trump supporters as "gullible" and "duped" and refer to Trump as a "convict.” However, there is also a prevalent view that criticism of Trump was a coordinated effort by major liberal accounts.
• The most discussed subject from the rally was Trump's support for Nevada senate candidate Sam Brown, highlighted by his post on Truth Social.
• Positive sentiments were not just about support but also resistance against criticism and political targeting.

Economic Issues

• Many people are enthusiastic about Trump's pledge to eliminate taxes on tips, significant for service-industry-heavy cities like Las Vegas. Some voters are making comparisons between Trump's tax policies and those of other leaders like Reagan.
• Republicans and conservatives especially voice excitement about lower taxes under a second Trump administration.
• There is also negative sentiment targeted at the media, with accusations of the Vegas television media suppressing coverage of Trump's tax pledges.

With recent news that Trump sent vetting materials to several VP candidates, discussions have grown about potential VP picks for the Trump ticket. The top contenders mostly consist of expected names—largely those who have been considered among Republicans for months.

The Trump campaign has reportedly sent vice-presidential vetting paperwork to seven candidates, including Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, Tim Scott, Byron Donalds, Elise Stefanik, and Ben Carson. The MIG Reports exclusive VP tracker shows live support and approval analysis which recently suggest:

• Voter reactions show different levels of popularity and approval toward the various choices.
• While Vivek Ramaswamy is often mentioned as an unlikely choice, he remains popular among voters with a 30-day average of nearly 20%.
• Byron Donalds takes second place in voter popularity with a 30-day average of 8% support. He also has strong approval numbers and is among the rumored top choices.

What Republicans Are Saying About the Top Picks

Voters are reacting positively to news of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance being in the running. Some endorsed Vance, calling him an America-First choice. They believe he aligns with Trump's agenda and would be acceptable to most. On the other hand, several criticized him primarily for his initial dislike towards Trump and his variable political positions.

Tim Scott and Marco Rubio received mixed reactions. While some voters consider them to be MAGA choices, others label them as RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) and doubt their allegiance to the Trump administration. Some even expressed absolute disapproval of Rubio being considered for vice presidency.

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is receiving relatively less attention. However, some say if Trump picks Burgum as his VP, it could indirectly give Bill Gates significant influence due to their close friendship. This generates disapproval since Gates is unpopular among many conservatives.

A recurring concern for many conservatives and MAGA voters is the prospect of having a RINO as Trump’s VP. They fear establishment candidates will not uphold true conservative values. Nikki Haley, although not officially in the running according to recent news, is repeatedly referenced as among these unfavorable RINO choices. Many say she would be even worse than Mike Pence in the eyes of MAGA supporters.

Byron Donalds

Many voters think Byron Donalds is a popular choice. However, he has sparked some strong backlash for his controversial comments on black America during the Jim Crow Era.

A Florida Congressman, Byron Donalds brings a conservative perspective and is one of the two African American Republicans in the House. However, some worry about his eligibility since he and Trump both reside in Florida. Donalds’ comments about “the Black family” during Jim Crow have been controversial and may alienate moderate voters. Republicans might find his admission and discussion of systemic racism to be problematic.

• Byron Donalds enjoys around 8% support, according to MIG Reports data. His approval is also strong, hovering near 50% and soaring above it at times in the last 30 days.

Marco Rubio

Views of Marco Rubio are divided, with some criticizing his allegiance to the Constitution and suggesting his ambition for power could be damaging. Yet, supporters think his background could attract Independent and moderate voters.

A junior senator from Florida, Rubio offers name recognition and experience from his 2016 presidential run. Republicans may appreciate his commitment to conservative principles on issues like tax and immigration. Moderates might appreciate his engagement on issues like climate change and higher education reform. Constitutional eligibility questions are a concern since both Rubio and Trump are residents of Florida.

• Rubio’s approval tends to vary widely, with dips down close to 30% and highs around 50%.

J.D. Vance

Despite his support with America-First voters, some people criticize Vance for his inconsistent loyalty towards Trump. Others are concerned that if Vance becomes VP, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine might appoint a RINO as his replacement.

Vance is the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and brings an empathetic voice for the struggling working-class. His appeal is tested among Republicans, while his criticisms of Trump may resonate with moderates. Vance's lack of political experience may, however, be a hindrance.

• Vance has gained around 50% approval in the last few days, recovering from a dip to the low 40% range at the start of June.

Tim Scott

Tim Scott's vote against federal protections for contraception and his association with MAGA has earned him criticism from more moderate voters. Yet, some believe he could appeal to Independents better than some of the strong MAGA choices.

South Carolina Senator Scott is the only African American Republican in the Senate and is known for his work on criminal justice reform. This may appeal to moderate voters, although his endorsement of police reform could lead to push back from some conservatives.

• Scott struggled with approval at the start of June, but as news of his consideration increased, his approval increased back to nearly 50%.

Doug Burgum

A relative unknown as North Dakota's governor, some voters think Burgum would allow Trump to keep the spotlight on himself. His name in the running has not elicited any significantly negative reactions, though his VP credentials don't seem to stir up much enthusiasm either.

Burgum is a strong economic conservative with private sector experience as the former CEO of a software company. Republicans might appreciate his fiscally conservative approach and his governing experience, while moderates may be drawn to his reputation as a pragmatic rather than ideological leader.

• Burgum’s approval remains steadily around 50%, with a slight bump in recent days.

Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik did not generate as significant a volume of comments compared to others in contention. She also does not draw as strong of opposition as some other candidates, but she also doesn’t seem to have much momentum behind her.

A young Congresswoman from New York, Stefanik gained fame during the Trump impeachments. Her steadfast support for Trump may win her points with Republicans, but her combative style and strong alignment with Trump might turn off moderate voters.

• Stefanik’s approval can vary widely, fluctuating between 30-50% in the last 30 days.

Ben Carson

While some suggest Carson’s age might be a hindrance to a long-term role, many see him as a good candidate due to his loyalty to Trump and alignment with the America-First movement. Many also view his calm demeanor and intelligence as strengths.

Ben Carson, the former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has a strong association with the Trump administration and a deep-rooted connection with conservative Christian voters. His quiet demeanor may appeal to those seeking a lower profile candidate but his lack of political experience beyond the HUD role may be a negative for those seeking a seasoned political candidate.

• Carson typically sees strong approval percentages, staying largely above 50% in the last 30 days with a high of 59%.

Passing Mention Contenders

There is also speculation about a few dark horse candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who some think could take up the America-First mantle. However, Gabbard's liberal background could deter many conservatives.

Tom Cotton is another notable contender. His right-leaning stances align with more conservative elements of the Republican base, but his alleged refusal to condemn threats of violence, puts him at odds with moderates who prioritize law and order. His attempts to secure a place on Trump's shortlist may also be viewed unfavorably by more traditionalist Republicans who disapprove of a perceived MAGA-centric approach.

This diverse field highlights the Trump campaign's attempt to appeal to various factions within the Republican Party and beyond, balancing ideological conservatives with potential candidates with moderate appeal. Given the early stage, it is likely the list may well evolve. Be sure to check in the MIG Reports exclusive VP tracker as the presidential campaign continues.

Based on AI-curated data and MIG Reports research, a clear front runner has yet to emerge for the Republican VP pick. Given the sentiments discussed in this report and developments in the political landscape, however, popularity may be gathering around Ben Carson, J.D. Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy for the VP position.

With a bombshell guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s New York trial, voter discussions emerged around preventing Trump from becoming the GOP nominee. Some prominent voices promoting this idea include:

Today's verdict is a fire-bell in the night. The Republican Party now has one last chance to change course, and not nominate a convicted felon for President.

— John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) May 30, 2024

It is not easy to see a former President and the presumptive GOP nominee convicted of felony crimes; but the jury verdict should be respected. An appeal is in order but let’s not diminish the significance of this verdict.

— Gov. Asa Hutchinson (@AsaHutchinson) May 30, 2024

There are also numerous other non-public social media profiles discuss installing previous primary candidates such as Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.

MIG Reports analysis shows discussion of possibility of the Republican National Convention becoming a brokered convention or the Republican National Committee selecting a candidate other than Trump. Sentiment is primarily against the Democratic Party, with some comparing the party to a communist or socialist regime and voicing concerns that it is damaging the country.

Most voters express strong disagreement with the idea of the Republican National Committee choosing a different candidate. This suggests a strong loyalty to Trump among much of the Republican base. This potency of commitment suggests any decision to field an alternate candidate could result in substantial backlash or fracturing within the party.

There is also significant fear that the USA is turning into a "communist state," with people pointing out real or perceived similarities between the current Democratic Party strategies and historical actions of communist regimes. Some also mention a Republican Party which they fear harbors anti-Trump sentiment. Deviations from the Trump-led mainstream in the Republican party are also characterized as betrayals.

There are frequent mentions of the 2020 election being stolen and calls for direct action to "take America back." Voters repeatedly compare the current Democratic Party’s actions to the Nazi party under Adolf Hitler, particularly in relation to alleged suppression of free speech.

It is evident that emotions around this conversation are severe, with deep conviction among many inside and outside the GOP.

Swing States

Pro-Trump supporters are aggressive in their response, expressing deep loyalty to the former president and declaring their continued support. They portray Trump as a selfless patriot who risks his personal status and wealth for the sake of the American people. Their posts and hashtags, like #Trump2024, #MAGA, #MakeAmericaGreatAgain, suggest they see a future for Trump in leadership. They view any wrongdoing alleged against Trump as part of a witch hunt, orchestrated by liberal courts and the media, drawing on rhetoric used by Trump himself. They express disdain for Republican politicians who wish to distance themselves from Trump, accusing them of aligning with Democrats and having a secret agenda.

Supporters also voice concerns about the perceived erosion of American government and governance, accusing the state and its institutions of moving towards communism. For them, any attempt to sideline or convict Trump is seen as an attack on the American people's will and the constitution. Many suggest there will be a surge in Trump's popularity and predict backlash in upcoming elections.

Critics of Trump are pleased with the prospect of the Republican National Committee selecting an alternative candidate. They argue justice is being served with the charges against him. They do not sympathize with the narrative presented by his supporters, and instead, view Trump as a threat to democracy.

Despite the differences, there is a common narrative of the situation as a moment of crisis for the American republic - either through alleged political persecution and suppression or through the potential re-emergence of a figure they see as an ideological threat. Ultimately, the comments underscore the deep divides within the American political landscape.