MIG data is showing a deep polarization in views about Biden's health and his potential reelection. In many conversations, there's a subtext of worry over Biden’s cognitive abilities that spans all political views. However, it's often used as a talking point rather than an expression of concern for Biden's well-being.

Republicans tend to leverage Biden’s health to criticize his capability as a leader, Democrats downplay it to counteract Republican narratives, and Independents use it as part of broader discussions on policy and leadership.

Discussions About Whether Biden is Running the Country

While views about Biden’s cognitive fitness generally divide along party lines, there is a brewing discussion about whether he is the one making important decisions.

• Most supporters believe Biden is running the country effectively, citing his focus on climate change, infrastructure, and healthcare.
• They appreciate his calm demeanor and his effort to unite the country after a contentious and polarized period.

However, a significant number of Americans express skepticism about Biden's leadership. They question his mental and physical fitness, often pointing to his age and recurring verbal gaffes.

• Generally right leaning, this group implies that there might be others "pulling the strings," as they suggest that Biden cannot be fully in charge.
• Speculation about actual decision makers include the Democratic Party's more progressive members.
• Names are mentioned like Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and The Squad, and various interest groups advocating for progressive causes.
• There is also a widespread belief among some circles that "woke" culture and corporations significantly influence Biden's policies.
• This sentiment is often expressed in discussions around issues such as race, gender, and social justice, with critics arguing that Biden is bending to the will of these progressive forces.
• Some theories suggest a shadowy, deep-state influence, implying that unknown entities might are controlling the presidency. But these theories are generally dismissed as misinformation.

It is noteworthy that these perspectives vary widely, often falling along partisan lines. Biden's supporters tend to view him as effectively running the country, while his critics are typically the ones who view his leadership skeptically.

Democrats Avoid Talking About Biden’s Cognitive Abilities

National Conversations

Democrats tend to be relatively quiet about about Biden's frequent gaffes and lack of unscripted public appearances. This suggests that Democrats may have unspoken concerns which they’re not willing to voice publicly.

• While Democrats sometimes acknowledge Biden’s coherence issues, they do not seem to view them as indicative of mental decline or as disqualifying for a potential reelection.
• Democrat commentary generally defends Biden, pointing to his achievements and dismissing criticisms of his mental health as unfounded.
• Due to the dismissiveness on the subject, one could infer that Democrats might be more supportive of Biden's policies and perhaps less likely to view his age or health as important.
• Democrats tend to argue that Biden has been an effective leader and deserves reelection.
• They rebut Republican accusations of mental decline by suggesting that these are politically motivated attacks.
• Some Democrats do express concern about the effectiveness of Biden's messaging, indicating that they believe he needs to do a better job of promoting his accomplishments.

Counter-Narratives About Trump’s Cognitive Abilities

In many discussions, Democrats argue that Trump’s mental state is equally questionable or even worse than Biden’s.

• Many refer to Trump's cognitive abilities negatively when Biden is brought up.
• They often recall instances during his presidency where his behavior or remarks were seen as erratic, unorthodox, or even authoritarian.

Swing State Democrats

In key states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and other swing states, Democrats generally align with national party sentiment, although there is more noticeable concern.

• National approval for Biden has averaged 49% in the last 30 days, while approval in swing states averaged 44%.

• Some swing state voters argue that Biden’s potential cognitive decline is being exaggerated or manipulated for political gain.
• There is noticeable dismissal when concerns are brought up, mirroring the national conversation.
• Many swing state Democrats do not directly mention Biden's health or potential mental decline.
• Lack of discussion may be due to an overshadowing anti-Trump sentiment within the party.
• However, there are some Democrats voicing concern about Biden's potential cognitive decline, arguing that it could harm the party's chances in future elections.
• A large segment of swing state Democrats seem to take issue with Republican narratives, but will not explicitly defend Biden's cognitive abilities.
• There is a clear divide among swing state Democrats about a potential Biden second term, with some expressing strong support and others voicing doubts.

Republicans View Biden as Clearly in Decline

National Conversations

Overall, Republicans tend to be most vocal about the possibility that Joe Biden is not actually running the country, but rather has “handlers” guiding him. They often express concerns about what they see as clear cognitive decline.

• Republicans frequently express concerns about Biden's mental acuity. They point to his recurring verbal stumbles, confusion, and gaffes as evidence of cognitive decline.
• They often cite Biden’s age, physical weakness, and frequent confusion as evidence of his decline.
• There are many references to Biden forgetting important details, or misspeaking. His recent mistake in mixing up Macron and Mitterrand has been a recent point of interest.
• There are repeated suggestions that Biden is "gaslighting" the public for votes or acting out of treasonous motivations.
• Many express concern over potential corruption and general incompetence within the Biden administration.
• Strong sentiments of disbelief and frustration are present, with some voters calling for Biden’s impeachment or for him to undergo cognitive testing.
• Many Republicans feel that Biden's lack of press appearances and obfuscation from his spokespeople are indicative of a more serious health issue.
• They also seem to believe that Biden's reelection would be terrible for the country due to a low probability of his completing a second term.
• This narrative is often accompanied by criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, with detractors suggesting that she is unqualified or ineffective in her role.