Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced her decision to not pursue re-election in 2024, igniting an explosion of political commentary across the country as to which Senate front runner from the Republican and Democratic Party, Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego, would benefit more from the maverick Senator’s departure. NRSC Chair Senator Steve Daines (ND) responded in a press release saying, “With recent polling showing Kyrsten Sinema pulling far more Republican voters than Democrat voters, her decision to retire improves Kari Lake’s opportunity to flip this seat.” Daines’ Democrat counterpart, Democrat Senate Chair Senator Gary Peters (MI) offered a similar statement of confidence, telling Axios, “​​We were gonna win regardless, but now we even have a stronger hand.” However, MIG Report’s analysis of Arizonans discussing Lake and Gallego online adds to a series of indicators that Lake may have an early edge that spells defeat for Gallego.

By the Numbers

Since Sinema’s departure, Lake has averaged 53% to Gallego’s 47% in head-to-head support analysis, which weighs the volume of each candidate’s ratio of positive to negative comments. 

Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego 3/5 - 3/7

• Over the last 30 days, Lake’s approval on immigration has been stronger than Gallego’s. Immigration promises to be a key issue on the ballot in 2024, especially in a border state like Arizona..
  
• Among Arizonans discussing Kari Lake and immigration policy online, MIG Reports found Lake earns 49% approval.
  
• Meanwhile, among Arizonans mentioning Gallego and immigration online, MIG Reports shows Gallego receiving a lower approval rating of 43%.

Lake’s Advantage: Die-Hards

More promising for Lake may be her enthusiasm advantage. Poll after poll suggests that turn out could be low in November. A recent New York Times/Sienna poll showed just 23% of Democratic Primary voters were excited about Biden. Worse, a Harvard poll showed less than half of young Americans plan to vote in 2024. While Lake’s populist streak has been labeled a liability, her die-hard base, driven by anger over mass migration, doubts over election integrity, and the Biden Presidency, could be her biggest strength.

• Over the last 30 days, Lake earned 5,565 direct mentions online in Arizona, while Gallego earned 3,666.
  
• This continues to be a theme for Lake month after month. In January, her advantage in online mentions was 7,079 to Gallego’s 2,986.

What They’re Saying

MIG Reports analysis of the most frequent comment themes both candidates receive online paints a picture of a broader narrative that could shape how Arizonans vote. The battle over digital political landscapes is increasingly important as more Americans turn away from prime time TV for their news to social media.

• MIG Reports found that while detractors label Gallego “a socialist or communist” and “criticize his extreme left policies,” messaging from supporters may soften Gallego’s appeal to moderate Republicans and McCain Republicans.
  
• Gallego’s supporters online highlight Gallego's military service and see him as a key asset to helping “defeat MAGA influence in Arizona.” This messaging is more consistent with Biden Democrat messaging than a Bernie Sanders or “Squad” supporting Leftist.
  
• Conversely, Kari Lake supporters champion her “support for her conservative policies and her alignment with Trump.” They also believe “she will protect Arizona from becoming too progressive.” This messaging is more palatable to Sinema supporters or moderate Republicans than the former.

Looking Ahead

Sinema's decision not to seek re-election represents yet another twist in an election that looks to be unlike any in recent years. While both factions of the American political spectrum sought to assure voters and donors that Sinema’s retreat is yet another reason to cast a vote or make a donation, early signs show Kari Lake may have a series of advantages. More importantly for Lake, the factors that give her this edge show no signs of dissipating.

• Lake’s base has been fervent since 2022, after months of legal battles over election integrity claims, and the fervor likely won’t stop.
  
• After years of Democrats claiming immigration is a nonissue and mocking Republicans for exaggerating the border crisis, convincing voters that “actually it’s Democrats who are serious on immigration” will be a herculean feat. This suggests Lake’s stronger approval ratings over Gallego on the key issue of immigration will be very difficult to reverse.
  
• Worse, Gallego will have to boost a depressed Democrat electorate alone, with Biden doing little to galvanize the vote like Obama did in 2008, when he helped deliver a super majority in the Senate. In turn, Lake appears to have this advantage in Donald Trump, who brings a boost to down ballot Republicans who otherwise struggle in Midterms and Special Elections.
  
• The final and perhaps key factor is whether McCain Republicans and Sinema Independent supporters will vote for Lake, who once shunned McCain voters, or vote for Gallego, a (suspiciously recent) former member of the extreme left Progressive Caucus. A third option for this segment of Arizona voters represents yet another advantage for Lake: don’t bother to vote at all.