Recent reports of polling on the 2026 California Governor’s race predict Kamala Harris as the frontrunner, should she enter the race. With a national profile and deep ties to the Democratic Party, she certainly has the greatest name ID. However, MIG Reports data paints a different picture of voter sentiment.

Voter Sentiment

Harris faces an electorate that is skeptical at best, outright hostile after her presidential train wreck. Her tenure as Vice President has left many unconvinced of her leadership skills, and her potential return to California politics meeting with resistance.

MIG reports data shows serious dissatisfaction among Californians as 60% express discontent with Harris’s record, highlighting economic concerns, crime, and immigration as key issues.

All Voters

• 55% of national voters hold a negative view of Harris
• 35% support her
• 10% remain neutral

Democratic Voters Nationally

• 40% of Democrats call for new leadership
• 50% express support
• 10% remain neutral

The Broader Voter Landscape

Harris’s viability as a Gubernatorial candidate is impacted by establishment backing and grassroots discontent. Nationally, she retains support among Democratic loyalists who see her as a necessary bulwark against Republican gains. However, Democratic sentiment is trending down overall as voters lose faith in party leaders. In California, the Democratic machine has come under scrutiny amid the recent wildfires and governance issues.

Among voters critical of her potential candidacy Harris is seen as ineffective. Her tenure as Vice President has been defined by failures on key issues like inflation, immigration, and public safety. Many Californians say she can only repeat party-line talking points, and her past struggle to connect with voters is a liability.

Democratic Division

While Harris maintains 50% support among partisan Democrats, nearly half of the party view her negatively, calling her too centrist or uninspiring. Her inability to energize the party’s far-left activist wing poses a serious risk in a state where progressive enthusiasm often translates into electoral strength.

Progressive critics cite her record as California’s Attorney General, arguing she was too punitive in criminal justice policies before shifting leftward in pursuit of national ambitions. Others believe her role in the Biden administration was an abject failure. Many want fresh leadership—candidates who can embody a grassroots-driven, issue-focused campaign.

Harris defenders see her as a nationally connected candidate who could maintain Democratic control in a state that is losing population. They say her positioning in the party apparatus, fundraising ability, and media profile make her the strongest candidate to follow Gavin Newsom. However, this support remains shallow rather than enthusiastic and both she and Newsom suffer from low support.

With media buzz and polling about her chances, Harris has seen a slight bump in sentiment compared to Newsom. However, Newsome has a 7-day low of 35% and Harris 41%.

California’s Growing Discontent

Harris is deeply unpopular in California, maintaining only name recognition which does not endear her to residents who have watched the state deteriorate under Democratic leadership.

Economic concerns are at the forefront. California faces some of the highest housing costs, energy prices, and tax burdens in the nation. Many blame Democratic policies for exacerbating these issues. They see Harris—who has long been involved in California politics—as a continuation of the status quo.

Immigration remains a flashpoint. Harris’s role as "Border Czar" in the Biden administration is widely viewed as a failure. Californians, facing overwhelmed social services and a growing illegal immigrant population, feel the brunt of national border policies. Voters critical of Harris say she has contributed to the border crisis.

Crime and public safety also weigh heavily. Rising crime rates in major California cities fuel dissatisfaction with Democratic governance. Harris’s record as Attorney General further damages her image among both progressive activists and pro-law-and-order voters.

A Captured Media

The growing disconnect between voter sentiment and media narratives also plays a part in negative sentiment. Many express frustration with what they see as a biased press propping up Harris. In the last year, legacy media coverage portrayed her as a strong leader and candidate, but voters see through this—particularly after the presidential election.

Critics argue that Harris’s public persona is overly polished yet politically empty. They see her media presence as scripted, rehearsed, and detached from real voter concerns. This has fueled resentment among voters who feel that the press is working to manufacture support for a candidate they do not trust.

Political Implications

If Harris enters the 2026 California gubernatorial race, she’ll have structural advantages, national name recognition, party backing, and a solid fundraising network. However, none of those things brought her across the finish line in 2024, and Californians are voicing strong desire for change.

Harris faces:

• A disillusioned Democratic base that is divided over whether she is competent.
• A California electorate that overwhelmingly disapproves of her record.
• A growing sense that her leadership represents the failures of the Biden administration rather than a fresh start.

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency and his decisive use of executive orders is controversial. Social media reveals intense discussions about immigration and cultural policies. Supporters view Trump’s decisions as necessary correctives, critics say executive orders are divisive with potentially authoritarian undertones.

ASMR - Relaxing Sounds For Conservatives: Trump Signing Executive Orders (No Vocals / 1 Hour) pic.twitter.com/T1T1WGaKs4

— Prison Mitch (@MidnightMitch) January 21, 2025

American Discourse

Trump’s executive orders symbolize an urgent repudiation of Biden-era policies. For many, they show decisive leadership, with 65% of the discussion expressing approval for their immediate impact and focus on restoring traditional values. Only 25% of the discussion criticizes the authoritarian tone of these actions and 10% remain neutral.

Key areas of focus include immigration, social issues such as LGBTQ rights and abortion, and free speech. Younger and older demographics display contrasting attitudes toward these issues, with younger voters often taking a more inflammatory and “right now” perspective.

Independent Analysis

Independents voice diverse views, pragmatically approaching the issues of Trump’s executive orders. 40% say they support Trump’s immigration policies, including halting Notices to Appear and reinstating strict enforcement measures. 35% appreciate Trump’s decisiveness. However, concerns about social and ethical implications temper this approval.

Generational divides are evident, with older Independents favoring Trump’s stringent border policies and associating them with safety and security. Younger Independents express apprehension about potential human rights violations.

Democratic Analysis

Democrats overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s executive actions, labeling them as authoritarian and dangerous. Comparisons with Biden frequently highlight a preference for “inclusive” and “ethical” governance.

Concerns about legality and the impact on marginalized groups dominate the discourse. Younger Democrats voice strong frustration, calling for urgent attention to civil rights and environmental issues. Older Democrats take a more measured tone, focusing on institutional integrity. Linguistically, Democrats employ cautionary and critical rhetoric, underscoring accountability and the rule of law.

Republican Analysis

Republicans express robust enthusiasm for Trump’s executive actions, with 68% praising their decisiveness and the contrast to Biden’s perceived bureaucratic approach.

Immigration and cultural identity emerge as central themes, with widespread approval of measures such as designating cartels as terrorist organizations and rolling back Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives.

Trump’s approach resonates strongly with populist sentiments among Republicans. Many frame his presidency as a transformative movement aimed at reclaiming American values. Discussions reflect a narrative of restoration, with his actions seen as a refutation of elite-driven and weaponized governance and a return to law and order.

REPORTER: Why did you remove John Bolton's security clearance?

TRUMP: Because I think that was enough time. I thought he was a very dumb person but I used him well. pic.twitter.com/mDdrbGDkNl

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 21, 2025

Comparative Patterns

Immigration is a key flashpoint, with support for Trump’s policies prevalent among Independents and Republicans. Democrats focus on the human cost and divisive rhetoric. Trump’s direct language garners approval from Republicans and some Independents but invites criticism from Democrats, who view it as inflammatory.

Generational divides are apparent across all affiliations, as younger voters prioritize social justice concerns while older voters emphasize security and tradition. However, the age demographics are shifting as Gen Z voters, who are outpacing Millennials in right-of-center politics, have not all moved into voting age.

Gen Z is more conservative than millennials:https://t.co/YZdjRIExxX pic.twitter.com/X0kDp8tx7a

— Nancy Pearcey (@NancyRPearcey) November 2, 2024

Summary

Trump’s leadership style continues to polarize Americans but it appears Republicans and many Independents admire his decisiveness and focus on immediate results. Social issues, immigration, and free speech dominate the discourse. Americans may be seeing a watershed moment in governance, with the historical rallying cry of small government and ideals taking a backseat to exercising authority.

The Republican Party is facing a pivotal moment as cultural and political momentum shifts post-election. But many are also talking about the future of the party, knowing this is Trump’s final administration.

MAGA must find a way to continue uniting a divided base in 2028 and beyond. Today, the party is energized by populism, but grappling with ideological tensions that will shape its future.

The GOP in 2024

• Populism: 60% of GOP voters believe Trump’s “America First” legacy has permanently reshaped the party.
• Traditionalism: 40% want to reestablish fiscal conservatism and limited government.
• Motivations: Immigration, economic reform, and cultural conservatism dominate voter priorities.
• Vance’s Potential: While many view J.D. Vance as Trump’s natural successor, many question his ability to broaden the party’s appeal and make their support contingent on his performance as Vice President.

Trump’s Lasting Legacy

Donald Trump’s influence looms large, both in the GOP and the history of U.S. politics. Many voters embrace his populist agenda of nationalism, anti-globalism, and cultural conservatism. They view him as a disruptor who is addressing their frustrations over the status quo. Many also point to the bipartisan anti-establishment coalition forming under Trump, with disaffected Democrats embracing the MAGA platform.

However, some Republican voters argue Trump’s polarizing rhetoric and governance have alienated moderates and Independents. They say they want a return to “traditional conservative values,” which MAGA voters interpret as a return to establishment politics. Some Americans are beginning to view the political divide as elites versus people instead of Democrats versus Republicans. This dynamic shift, most people attribute to Trump.

J.D. Vance and the Search for a Successor

As Trump’s Vice President, J.D. Vance is positioned well in a post-Trump landscape. Many see him as a key ally to Trump and a potential heir to the MAGA movement. His strong stances on immigration, education reform, and cultural conservatism resonate with voters who prioritize border security and oppose DEI initiatives in schools and workplaces. However, many are withholding full support until they see how he governs as VP.

Support

• Vance’s efforts to dismantle DEI programs in education are widely celebrated as part of the fight against perceived liberal overreach.
• His alignment with MAGA values positions him as a defender of traditional American ideals.
• Like Trump, Vance is proficient in facing hostile media and articulately communicating his ideas, gaining approval from voters.

Concerns

• Skeptics question Vance’s readiness to lead and worry that his association with Trump could alienate moderates and Independents.
• Discussions highlight fears of increasing radicalization in the GOP and the challenge of appealing to a broader electorate.
• Some in the MAGA base also worry that Vance may be an opportunist looking for a career stepping stone rather than a principled adherent to party’s vision.

Republicans speculate about who could follow Trump, though many express sentiments like, “2028 is a lifetime from now,” suggesting it is difficult to know who will still be in the picture going forward. However, some names thrown around include:

• Vivek Ramaswamy
• Ron DeSantis
• Eric Trump
• RFK Jr.
• Tulsi Gabbard
• Nikki Haley
• Kristi Noem

Voter Priorities

The GOP’s future hinges on addressing voter priorities, which largely coalesce around three central themes.

Immigration and Border Security

Voters strongly back Trump-era immigration policies including stronger border enforcement and deportation measures. Many say immigration is not only a key issue but critical for the future of the country. This, they say, will define the GOP’s platform in upcoming elections.

Economic Reform

Dissatisfaction with inflation, housing affordability, and fiscal mismanagement dominates discussions. Voters demand transparency and accountability, calling for spending cuts and reforms to reduce the federal deficit.

Cultural Conservatism

Opposition to woke culture and DEI initiatives energizes the GOP base. Figures like Trump and Vance champion policies that emphasize traditional values in education and governance, aligning with voter frustrations. The base calls for a continuation of cultural reformation going forward.

Predictive Analysis

The GOP’s trajectory will likely follow one of three paths:

• Populist Consolidation: The party doubles down on Trump’s agenda, prioritizing nationalism, cultural conservatism, and anti-globalism.
• Hybrid Leadership: Figures like Vance could attempt to bridge the divide, blending populist energy with traditional conservatism to appeal to a wider base.
• Reverting to the Norm: Continued ideological divisions could weaken the party, ultimately allowing establishment figures to reassert control.

Success will depend on the GOP’s ability to articulate a cohesive vision that addresses voter priorities while appealing to diverse demographics.

On Dec. 3, during a Democratic Party caucus for Thornton Township, Illinois, Supervisor Tiffany Henyard was denied placement on the Democratic ballot for the upcoming election. The caucus requires each candidate to present a full slate of eight positions, including supervisor, highway director, clerk, assessor, and four trustees. Henyard's slate lacked a certified assessor, rendering her nomination invalid.

Many familiar with Henyard view her as defined by corruption. There are claims that she used tax dollars to repave her mom’s home driveway and sends police to shut down businesses that don’t support her politically. This causes most people to show her little sympathy in the disqualification.

Democrat Mayor of Dolton , Illinois Tiffany Henyard says he’s going to sue everyone who’s “defaming her name”, she says as a politician she has rights

This is the same Democrat mayor who

- Signed a check for $561,000 to repave her mom’s home driveway with tax payer money
-… pic.twitter.com/jFIMnSvwQ5

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) December 4, 2024

MIG Reports analysis shows varying degrees of anger, relief, and resignation—highlighting deeper tensions related to governance, race, and identity politics. Henyard is receiving criticism for her reaction saying she plans to “sue everybody” for preventing her nomination.

🚨"THIS IS ILLEGAL!" HOOD BOOGER Mayor Tiffany Henyard CRIES After Getting COOKED In HUMILIATING Election LOSS! pic.twitter.com/CgiEpPBa43

— Black Anomaly Rising (@blackanomalies) December 4, 2024

Local vs. National Politics

• 40% express frustration over local leaders being undermined by broader political and racial interests.
• Many people juxtapose Henyard’s local governance with national racial politics.
• They feel her removal is not isolated but part of a broader trend affecting minority leaders and local governance nationwide.

BREAKING:#supermayor Tiffany Henyard has just been voted out of her supervisor position in #Thortontownship by an overwhelming majority.

The crowd began singing
“Hey hey hey, goodbye”

The Mayor protested saying the meeting should not start on time because people were still… pic.twitter.com/SShsMBFooW

— RebelwithoutaReason (@RebelwoaReason) December 4, 2024

Identity and Representation

• 35% emphasize her unique qualities as a leader, reflecting a need for diverse representation in local governance.
• Comments highlight identity politics, focusing on how Henyard's identity as a black woman beautifies her mayoral service.
• While many affirm her value in amplifying the voices of minority communities, some critique this perspective, prioritizing meritocracy.

Corruption and Governance

• 25% discuss perceived corruption, calling into question the integrity of Henyard’s administration and the motivations for her removal.
• There are accusations of corruption and governance issues in Dolton as many question Henyard's integrity, her candidacy, and removal.
• Some believe politics in Dolton is rife with systemic corruption, which they argue contributes to public distrust in local leadership regardless of identity.

Media and Accountability

• 20% are skeptical of how the media has handled Henyard’s story.
• There is concern about biased media portrayals of political figures, with many suggesting politicized narratives shape public perception unfairly.
• Critics of media representation argue it fails to acknowledge the complexities of Henyard's leadership, reducing her to a singular narrative that often lacks context.

Desperation and Hope

• 15% are optimistic for new political figures emerging in the Dolton community.
• There is a small sense of hope for future leadership as citizens search for local and national representatives who can navigate the political chaos effectively.
• Illinoisans want leaders who can overcome the challenges of predecessors and reestablish trust with their constituents.

A big discussion prior to the 2024 election was the gender divide in support for Trump and Harris. Many concluded women would overwhelmingly turn out for Harris, based on “women’s rights” or abortion issues. However, surprising results showing Trump gaining ground with women, shocking some observers.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but Trump won white women outright pic.twitter.com/sxO5oc7pEw

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) November 6, 2024

Despite conventional narratives suggesting women would vote strongly based on abortion, post-election conversations are illuminating. While past elections hinged on topics like abortion and identity politics, this election saw many women—and other voter groups—recalibrating toward economic stability, women’s safety, and traditional values.

🚨 JUST IN: Trump gains in nearly every demographic from 2020

🔴 Women: +2
🔴 Men: +3
🔴 Non-college: +6
🔴 Hispanic: +6
🔴 Black: +7
🔴 Young: +10 pic.twitter.com/qNcFOTDAVm

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024

Democrats Feel Women Failed Them

Around 40% of Democratic comments voice disappointment over female support for Trump. Many lament the disappointing turnout for abortion as the cornerstone issue of the Harris campaign.

This is “political analyst” & former poly-sci professor Dr. Arlene who brainwashed hundreds of thousands of people on TT into thinking Harris would win.

On Nov 5th, she told a story about how she taunted a grocery store worker about how Harris was 100% going to win

On Nov 6th,… pic.twitter.com/NbVhQ6uftx

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024

• A common theme among Democrats was disappointment over women supporting Trump, viewing it as a step back for women’s rights.
• Many Democrats express anxiety that Trump will roll back progress on abortion and gender equality.
• However voting results suggest women want policies that align with their family priorities and provide practical solutions.

Analysis

Previous MIG Reports data showed women are underrepresented in online political discourse. This may suggest that women voting for Trump are either less inclined to discuss it, or simply not captured due to lack of online presence.

Remember all those ads about "your husband won't know who you voted for?"

Turns out it wasn't their husbands that they were hiding their vote from, it was their judgy lefty girly pals.

— mrs. dobbins ☕️🪶 (@mrsdobbins_) November 6, 2024

The rise of policy-driven voting behavior among women may be attributed to the receding influence of gender ideology. This presents a strategic opportunity for Republicans to continue appealing to women with a platform that addresses concrete concerns.

Economic Stability Trumps Abortion

Drastically rising prices, particularly for essentials like groceries, healthcare, and housing, has become a major driver of political sentiment among female voters.

• Roughly 65% of women discussing the election online say economic concerns are the top priority.
• Women say things like, “Financial stability matters more than any other issue right now,” pointing to high costs and stagnant wages.
• Many women credit Trump’s policies with lower inflation and better household finances—they see his return as a path to restoring stability.

Analysis

Women directly link economic stability to their families' well-being. This trend suggests the social and identity issues emphasized in the culture over the last decade have lost potency amid economic fears.

In 2024, women are making decisions based on financial considerations, which they see as non-negotiable. For a Republican administration, continuing to address voter economic concerns pragmatically could solidify and increase this trend.

Sick of “Woke” Politics

Many women say they view Trump’s emphasis on traditional values as a welcome departure from identity politics.

• 30% of Republicans celebrate Trump's cultural alignment with anti-woke values.
• 25% of women say they feel alienation from Democratic messaging on woke issues—particularly transgender rights and women’s safety.
• Many say transgender policies, particularly in women’s sports and public spaces, are more severely encroaching on women’s rights than abortion restrictions.

Analysis

Trends suggests there may be a growing cultural shift to the right, with conservative female voters rallying to reorient around traditional values over progressive ideology. Republican messages that champion economic stability, safety, and family-focused policies resonate deeply with women. As identity politics increasingly alienates this voter base, progressives may continue to lose hold on women.

Failed “Women’s Rights” Movement

Many on the left lauded abortion as the most critical issues for women in 2024. Although it was a dominant issue in the 2022 midterms post-Dobs, current trends show the economy and personal safety supersede abortion issues for many women.

• Only 20% of women discussing the election emphasize abortion, suggesting a diminishing role in shaping female voting patterns.
• Many in this group—particularly mothers—say they prioritize “women’s rights” in the form of securing the border and female spaces.
• While many voters still express concern over potential abortion rollbacks in certain states, this does not seem to have a dramatic impact on the presidential race.

Analysis

Many women, including pro-choice advocates, are balancing abortion issues with more pressing economic and safety concerns. State races show a significant number of women still place importance on abortion, however Republican messaging about states’ rights post-Roe may impact voter decisions for national issues.

The 2024 election delivered a historic “red wave,” as Trump and Republican candidates cleaned up with an electoral presidential win, the popular vote, and projections for a majority in the Senate and House.

While conservative circles celebrate this shift, Democratic voters and pundits are reeling from Democrats losing support in almost every state.

Donald Trump gained support in 49 out of 50 states from 2020 to 2024 pic.twitter.com/Jd4O2plEWZ

— America (@america) November 7, 2024

Democratic Voters in Shock and Disbelief

The scale of the Republican victory has generated shock among Democratic voters, many of whom anticipated more favorable results based on conventional polling and media reporting.

Voter reactions indicate a profound disconnect within the Democratic base, with discussions centering around disbelief that such a large political shift could take place after Biden’s historic popular vote totals in 2020.

10 Shocking Stories the Media Buried Today

#10 - Joe Rogan raises SERIOUS questions about Biden’s “81 million votes” in 2020.

“Look at the difference in how many people voted for Biden in 2020. It's unprecedented! It's way higher than any other time since 2012.”

“Look at where… pic.twitter.com/lUN3lMWZdb

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) November 7, 2024

Some attribute this wholesale American rejection of Kamala Harris to a cultural shift which the Democratic Party misread. However, the majority of Harris voters largely attribute the loss to “racism," "misogyny," and a resurgent conservatism. Now, many question whether America remains fundamentally center-right, a trend Democratic strategists appear to have underestimated.

Internal Conflict and Critique

There is division over whether Democrats strayed too far from their traditional working-class roots, or Americans are racist and misogynistic.

An increasingly progressive party, some argue, only alienated vital demographics who feel sidelined by elite-focused, urban-driven policies. Discussions show frustration with the party’s focus on identity politics over practical concerns like economic stability, public safety, and personal freedom.

On today's Morning Joe, Scarborough is still trying to square how Kamala Harris lost so bad and was SHOCKED to learn about the high price of groceries.

Scarborough was floored when a friend told him butter was $3 and he almost fell out of his chair when Mika Brzezinski told him… pic.twitter.com/6MelvWoput

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) November 7, 2024

• Identity Politics: Many Democrats criticize the party’s emphasis on identity politics (e.g., gender identity and race-based policies), arguing they are detached from the daily realities facing middle America.
• Working-Class Alienation: Voters from blue-collar and Latino communities report feeling condescended to, left out by a party they once identified with but now view as elitist and dismissive.
• Shift in Latino Support: A shift toward Trump among Latino voters in traditionally Democratic regions challenges assumptions that progressive policies resonate universally among minority groups.

Some also point out that Trump gained ground with nearly every voter group besides older voters 65+ and white, college educated women. This again results in either accusations of racism and misogyny or critiques of woke ideologies.

red wave is an understatement pic.twitter.com/oRJkGEYYY6

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) November 6, 2024

Strategic Failures and Down-Ballot Neglect

Internal critiques extend to strategic missteps that left Democrats vulnerable at both national and local levels. Voters accuse party officials of focusing too narrowly on top-ticket races, abandoning down-ballot races critical for future influence.

• Down-Ballot Neglect: Voters say too many down-ballot seats went uncontested in key areas, contributing to a domino effect that bolstered Republican gains. This lack of attention to local issues, especially in swing states, draws backlash.
• Missed Outreach: Many Democrats say party leadership failed to mobilize working-class voters, particularly losing touch with Teamsters. There is frustration at the party’s seeming disinterest in engaging on local, bread-and-butter issues.

Professor/NYT columnist Tressie McMillian Cottom urges Dems to double down on identity politics "[Trump] tapped into one of the most powerful of American identities, he tapped into white identity...That means you should double down on identities of your base." pic.twitter.com/21jyTKjhMQ

— Alex Christy (@alexchristy17) November 7, 2024

Woke Versus Democrat

Democratic voter responses indicate a growing internal division. Left-leaning voters are split between support for and frustration with reactionary movements like the “4B movement,” where liberal women pledge to abstain from relationships with men who supported Trump.

• Movement Backlash: Moderate Democrats say progressive and woke movements are self-defeating, alienating young male voters and many conservative minorities who reject identity politics.
• Conservative Mockery: These reactionary movements have also faced ridicule from conservatives. Particularly the 4B movement, which they say plays into Republican messaging on family values, abstinence, and pro-life advocacy.
• Traditional Democrats: A substantial faction in the party calls for a return to traditional Democratic values over worries about alienating leftist progressives.

Outside observers and those on the right are taking the Democrats’ dramatic loss as a complete rejection of woke politics from the American electorate.

Wokeism is dead.
Identity politics is dead.
Virtue-signalling is dead.
Trump’s massive win was a total repudiation of all the far-left’s ‘progressive’ (but actually regressive) crap.
Common sense will now return to a world that had gone nuts, and thank god for that.

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) November 8, 2024

Election Integrity Worries

Another prominent reaction among Democratic voters centers on suspicions of election irregularities. Some suspect compromised mail-in ballots, voter ID issues, and lost votes are generating may have allowed Republicans to cheat. There are calls for reform, as Democrats grapple with the integrity of the electoral process they once championed.

• Missing Votes: Many view the disparity in voter turnout from 2020 to 2024 as suspicious, raising questions about the missing votes.
• Voter ID and Paper Ballots: In a reversal, some Democrats now call for stricter voter ID laws and paper ballots to ensure election security, a stance traditionally taken by Republicans.
• Perceived Fraud: Numerous comments suggest states Democrats lost correlate with lenient voter ID laws, intensifying voter mistrust and calls for electoral reform.

Following Trump’s hostoric win in the 2024 election, more people are expressing skepticism about the results of the 2020 election. At the time of this writing, total votes cast in 2024 have fallen more than 16 million short of the 155 million touted in 2020.

Conversations reveal a sense of confusion and growing questions about the validity of 2020 numbers. People are voicing distrust in democratic institutions, confusions, concern, and grievance. Some point out the drastic spike in popular vote totals for Joe Biden in 2020 as an unconvincing anomaly which has not been sufficiently explained.

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but can we go back to what happened here? pic.twitter.com/FkScNHivuU

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 6, 2024

Suspicion and Distrust

• Between 50-70% of election-related discussions show a pervasive belief that the 2020 election was manipulated or "stolen."
• Sentiments are driven by old and new grievances around vote counting, absentee ballot handling, and perceived interference from influential political figures.
• Many people view the 2020 election indicative of a corrupted electoral system, amplifying calls for transparency and changes to voting regulations.
• This sustained distrust reflects wider skepticism of the institutions that continue to erode confidence in government institutions.

Idealizing Past “Truthful” Elections

• Conversations contrast the perceived flaws of the 2020 election with an idealized past when voters feel elections were simpler and more transparent.
• This nostalgic framing imagines a bygone era of “truthful” elections and democratic purity when voters trusted institutions.
• Trump’s presidency is often framed as a period when political integrity and fairness were stronger, contrasting perceived betrayals in the 2020 outcome.
• This idealization solidifies voters in a collective desire for “restoration” and perceived moral clarity.

Yes, let's do go back. American voters want and deserve to know precisely where 81 million "votes" appeared from and how all the official 2020 evidence collected via courts and states has never been properly analyzed, summarized and presented. It's a huge public topic. https://t.co/mYHb6WxVI5 pic.twitter.com/vm17MOXUWu

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 6, 2024

Language of Fear and Urgency

• Rhetoric around the 2020 election incorporates language of fear and urgency, often placed in existential terms.
• Phrases like “the last free election” or “fight for our democracy” reinforce a belief that core American freedoms are at risk.
• This language intensifies the emotional resonance of the “stolen election” narrative, presenting it as a political concern and an existential threat.
• Framing magnifies the urgency for action, mobilizing those who doubt the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Collective Memory

• There is a noticeable trend of commenters referencing old grievances, such as the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy election or other contentious moments in American political history.
• By positioning the 2020 election in this historical context, people highlight a legacy of electoral controversy, which serves to legitimize current doubts.
• Collective memory reinforces perceptions of a continuous struggle for transparency and fairness, battling systemic corruption.

Spiritual Appeals and Calls for Unity

• Suspicion drives calls for urgent intervention, with many framing the restoration of democratic integrity as a moral and spiritual duty.
• Americans call for unity through “prayers for America” or a “return to God’s values,” intertwining of faith and political viewpoints.
• For many, questioning the 2020 election a civic duty and a moral imperative.
• This spiritual framing fosters a sense of righteous indignation, mobilizing supporters around a higher cause and reinforcing their commitment to truth and transparency.

Over the last three election cycles, trust in political polls has dramatically deteriorated. Polling inaccuracies and media reporting on potential outcomes are destroying confidence and eroding public trust. After multiple elections where predictive numbers majorly failed to capture American sentiments, many are saying they’re done with legacy institutions.

You are the media now

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2024

Americans discuss Elon Musk’s alliance with Trump and his decision to buy Twitter (now X) in 2022 as death blows to mainstream media. Discussions of news media lies being revealed through citizen journalism on X bolster sentiments that America is ready to discard legacy platforms.

Unsalvageable Distrust Among Americans

Voters have long voiced distrust toward the media and political polls, but Trump’s shocking blowout victory only confirms those sentiments. Many point to inaccurate poll projections as evidence of anti-Trump and anti-conservative bias from the establishment regime.

Many see problems both in flawed methodology and elite resentment toward average Americans. Some voters even suggest mainstream polling is manipulated or used as a rhetorical tool to favor establishment narratives.

There is a reason why educated people vote blue. What we’re seeing is the uneducated population of America holding the rest of the country hostage. This is why there’s such a push to weaken education, ban books, and outlaw the teaching of Black history by the Republican Party.

— Sueanna Smith, PhD (@SueannaSmith3) November 6, 2024

• Distrust of Accuracy: Around 37% of voters say "polling manipulation" is a primary concern, believing poll results are skewed to fit media or political agendas.
• Partisan Divide: Conservative and right-leaning voters are more likely to distrust polling data, while liberal-leaning voters show more confidence.
• Broken System: Roughly 55% of conservatives say polling inaccuracies reflect deeper issues in the election process.

The sentiment exists among traditional conservative demographics, but now also resonates among Independents who distrust poll numbers. Many suggest traditional polling techniques may no longer capture the complexities of an evolving electorate.

MIG Reports Data

Amid many wildly inaccurate traditional polls, MIG Reports data proves to be highly competitive in tracking sentiment and trends among online voters.

MIG Reports data on the morning of Election Day showed Trump winning all the competitive battle ground states except VA and MN.

As of this writing, NYT election results show:

• Wisconsin +.88 for Trump
• Virginia +5 for Harris
• Pennsylvania +2 for Trump
• Nevada +5 for Trump
• North Carolina +3 for Trump
• Minnesota +4 for Harris
• Michigan +1.6 for Trump
• Georgia +2 for Trump
• Arizona +5 for Trump

Themes Emerging from Public Reactions

Voter sentiment surrounding polling isn’t just about accuracy—it’s an indictment of outdated and inadequate methodologies that fail to evolve with culture and technology.

• Demand for Transparency: Voters want greater transparency in polling methods. They seek clear explanations of how sample groups are selected, what adjustments are made for turnout assumptions, and how error margins are communicated.
• Media Narratives: Many say the media’s heavy reliance on polls—especially when those polls inaccurately project outcomes—only fuels distrust. They say media framing particularly underplays conservative viewpoints, causing an information bubble that misleads voters.
• Growing Cynicism: More voters are saying this election marks a shift away from mainstream reporting and polling metrics toward independent analysis. Many express hope that legacy institutions like the news media and political consultants will face extinction before 2028.

Polling and Voting Security

Many view predictive polling inaccuracies as connected to worries about election integrity and the voting system itself. Right-leaning voters often point to polling errors as evidence the electoral process may be similarly flawed, particularly regarding voting security.

• Mail-in Voting: 40% of right leaning voters continue to express doubts about the authenticity of mail-in ballots, which they perceive as prone to manipulation.
• "Red Mirage": Some discuss the concept of the “Red Mirage,” where initial in-person voting leans right only for mail-in ballots to shift later shift results to Democrats. This reinforces their belief that mail-in voting lacks transparency and amplifies polling errors.
• Voter ID: Up to 70% of Americans support voter ID laws, seeing them as a safeguard for election security. The absence of such standards across states feeds into skepticism about the election system’s integrity.

Proposed Reforms

Given the ongoing erosion of trust in polling and news reporting, many are calling for concrete reforms.

• Polling Transparency: Voters want pollsters to provide detailed breakdowns of how samples are chosen, the assumptions behind turnout models, and the adjustments made to reflect historical voting patterns.
• Adapting Methodologies: The call for modernized polling methods is growing. Many voters believe polling organizations should explore new techniques, like online panels, that better capture the evolving nature of the electorate.
• Media Accountability: There is strong support for media outlets to emphasize the provisional nature of predictions—though many also call for the death of mainstream media altogether.

Donald Trump’s decisive 2024 victory surprised many Americans, including hopeful MAGA voters who were optimistic but cautious about a potentially contentious win. With a robust electoral college win and projections for the popular vote, Trump reasserts his influence.

For many, the win represents a reaffirmation of America’s core values and hopes for economic recovery. For many on the left and in the media, Trump’s shocking comeback forebodes a concerning shift towards authoritarianism and global destabilization.

Jake Tapper and Anderson Copper: This is the greatest comeback in history pic.twitter.com/qOajjyTtlM

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) November 6, 2024

• 40% of reactions express feelings of elation and optimism, celebrating Trump as a driving force for a return to traditional values and strong leadership.
• 30% view Trump’s triumph with deep concern, fearing authoritarianism and threats to democracy.
• 20% say they identify as undecided voters or previously aligned with Democratic ideals, but now express openness to Trump due to frustration with Democrat leaders.

Trump Supporters Celebrate

MAGA voters are experiencing a surge of enthusiasm, viewing his victory as a triumphal declaration America’s voice. Voters are rallying around hope for the economy, national security, and traditional values.

Many who were cautiously optimistic going into Election Day, express relief and joy at such a resounding win. Those who were braced for a protracted election with potentially drawn-out legal battles are sighing in relief as Trump unexpectedly secured the popular vote and potentially the House, within the night.

Economic Optimism

• Trump supporters overwhelmingly view his leadership as a return to economic fundamentals.
• Supporters discuss inflation control, job creation, and energy independence as expected outcomes under Trump.
• 40% of pro-Trump voters voice strong confidence in expectations of economic improvement for the next four years.

Defense of American Values

• Many see this win as a rejection of “leftist agendas,” with strong support for “America First,” particularly on immigration and national security.
• Social conservatism plays a key role, with voters expressing happiness at the prospect of rolling back woke ideology.
• Religious supporters say Trump’s comeback is a divinely led return to order, viewing providential events as a protection of freedom and liberty.

Rejection of Political Elitism

• There is a counter-cultural sentiment among Trump voters who feel resentful of “elite” media narratives.
• Voters view this decisive message to elites as pushing back against the establishment, positioning Trump’s win as a repudiation of legacy institutions.

Concerns from Democratic Voters

For many Democrats, Trump’s victory has fueled apprehension and frustration. They fear Trump is a threat to civil liberties, social justice, and particularly abortion.

Fear of Authoritarianism

• Progressive Democrats worry Trump’s leadership threatens democratic norms, with 30% expressing urgent concerns over potential authoritarian tendencies.
• Fears are centered on perceived risks to women’s rights, LGBTQ+ protections, and voting rights.
• Social justice advocates are concerned Trump’s stance on racial issues and immigration will increase divisions within American society.

Climate and Social Issues

• Democrats see Trump’s previous track record as detrimental to climate policies, fearing deregulation.
• Concerns extend to healthcare and educational equality, where Trump’s policies are viewed as dangerous to the vulnerable.

Distrust of MAGA

• Many Democrats describe Trump’s rhetoric as combative, warning it will stoke societal divisions.
• For this demographic, Trump’s win is not just political but symbolic of a cultural regression, with “MAGA” values often seen as exclusionary and harmful to minority groups.