The Big Picture

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sees a boost in Iowa after landing a coveted endorsement from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds this week, but he still faces a towering challenge from Donald Trump in the state's critical caucus.

The Details

• Reynolds, who holds an 81% approval rating in Iowa, heaped praise on DeSantis at a GOP event near Des Moines. “He fought for parents’ rights in schools, implemented the toughest abortion restrictions in the country, and brought law and order back to the Sunshine State,” she said.
• Former President Trump got early wind of the endorsement, writing on Truth Social the day before Reynolds’ endorsement, “If and when Kim Reynolds of Iowa endorses Ron DeSanctimonious, who is absolutely dying in the polls both in Iowa and Nationwide, it will be the end of her political career in that MAGA would never support her again, just as MAGA will never support DeSanctimonious again.”
• Trump won the 2016 and 2020 Iowa caucuses, but Reynolds’ endorsement may lead to a tightening race shaping up in 2024 between Trump and DeSantis.

Highly Unusual

• Reynolds endorsement is a serious break from Iowa caucus norms-Iowa governors have historically stayed neutral in the caucus and avoided endorsing candidates.

Movement

A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence to monitor and database the support and sentiment of candidates, finds that DeSantis has already seen a boost in Iowa after Reynolds’ endorsement.

• Analyzing online discussions of GOP primary candidates in Iowa, MIG’s report averaged positive and negative comments to determine support for all candidates and found that DeSantis doubled his support amongst Iowans this week.
• Iowans are well aware of Reynold’s decision to throw support behind the Florida Governor, with “endorsement” being the most frequently discussed topic amongst Iowans discussing the Presidential candidates remaining-ahead of other issues like race relations and abortion.
• While DeSantis likely benefited from a strong debate performance as well, DeSantis began trending upward prior to the debate.
• The day of Reynold’s endorsement, DeSantis climbed from 16% support on Sunday, November 5th, to 25% support on Monday September 6th.
• As of Friday, November 10th, DeSantis currently holds 31% support amongst Iowans discussing GOP candidates online.

Yes, but...

Trump still remains ahead in MIG’s report and other Iowa polls. Trump holds 47% support according to MIG’s report-a 16% gap DeSantis will have to close before the January 15th Iowa Caucus.

Between the Lines

The Reynolds endorsement may matter most for DeSantis' battle with Nikki Haley for second place.

• The former UN ambassador was the center of much attention at the GOP’s Wednesday Debate in Miami as she and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy traded emotionally charged blows.
• However, MIG’s report found only a 3% bump for Haley in Iowa support, from 6% to 9%, post debate.

A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence to monitor and database the support and sentiment of candidates, adds to growing evidence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s potency in a general presidential election. 

• Analyzing online discussions of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and RFK Jr, MIG’s report averaged positive and negative comments to determine support for all three candidates and found that RFK Jr. secured 23% support across 7 states (Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Texas).

Recall that… 

• When Kennedy was still running in the Democratic primary, Kennedy found sanctuary in Republican media. Eager to compound Biden's cratering popularity amongst Democrats, Republicans amplified Kennedy's message. They even selected the Democrat scion as a witness to testify before the House subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which garnered 2 million views on YouTube. 

Shifting gears.. 

• Kennedy declared on October 9th that he was dropping his bid for Democratic presidential nominee, and would run as an Independent. Republicans quickly pounced, with Trump spokesman Steven Cheung telling CNN, “The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions.” 

Indicators and Warnings… 

• Last month, polling from USA Today/Suffolk showed Kennedy earning 13% of the vote in a three way match up between him, Biden, and Trump. 
• In a troubling sign for the Trump campaign, voters that said they would otherwise support the Republican nominee backed Kennedy 2 to 1 over those that said they would vote for the Democratic nominee without the option of Kennedy as a third party candidate. 
• Adding to growing Republican fears of a spoiler candidate, campaign finance records show that former Trump donors are giving to Kennedy at a higher rate than Democrat donors are. 

Zooming in… 

• The 2024 election already shows signs of being as razor-thin as the previous presidential election, making Kennedy poised to potentially be the most impactful third-party candidate since Ross Perot. 
• MIG’s report finds that Kennedy garners nearly 30% support in Nevada, where Biden beat Trump by just 3% in 2020.

• While Florida has been considered less and less of a battleground state since Republicans’ double digit victories in the 2022 midterms, Trump won Florida by just 3.36% in 2020. MIG’s report shows Kennedy securing 29% support amongst Florida voters who will likely already be primed to resonate with Kennedy’s criticisms of pandemic overreach after re-electing Ron DeSantis as Governor by a 19 point margin in 2022. 

Yes, but.. 

• Kennedy has also shown prowess in cutting into the Democratic voter base as well, with Quinnipiac’s latest poll finding Kennedy securing 38% support amongst 18-34 year olds, while Biden secured 32% amongst Gen Z and Millennials. 
• In the same poll, Kennedy and Biden have razor thin margins amongst Hispanics, with Kennedy garnering 33% of the vote to Biden’s 36%. Biden has a wider share of support with black voters, but Kennedy showed strength here too with 24% support to Biden’s 61%. 

Though Kennedy faces steep obstacles to breaking through America’s polarized two-party system, mounting evidence of a close 2024 election and Kennedy’s growing popularity with disillusioned independents makes writing off Kennedy's impact foolish.

Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a recent Media Intelligence Group report. This data lines up with recent Reuters/Ipsos polling showing Biden’s approval rating at a low of 39% since April.

• MIG data is consistent with surveys by The New York Times, Yahoo Finance and others showing Trump edging out Biden by a few percentage points in head-to-head matchups.
• The former president appears to have an advantage among key demographics including independents, rural voters and working-class whites.

30-Day Sentiment Averages

In the last 30 days, MIG data shows Trump gaining higher support averages than Biden.

 In addition, Trump is gaining noticeably higher sentiments in Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. 

What Voters Are Saying

Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling reveals Biden hitting a very low approval rating of 39% at the beginning of November. Diving deeper, MIG data shows some of the reasons voters are unhappy with Biden.

 Voter Negativity Toward Biden

• Criticism of Biden, accusing him of supporting genocide, aiding Hamas, and mismanaging the Israel situation.
• Biden receives negativity from both sides regarding Ukraine. Some say he has deceivedthe
• American people and over-funded Ukraine, while others lament that he has not done enough. Critics also blame Biden for high inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing gas prices.
• Backlash for high national debt and accusations Biden is negatively impacting the housing market and food prices.
• Displeasure overall for “Bidenomics.”
• There is still severe dissatisfaction with Biden’s perceived mishandling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
• Many voters argue that the Biden administration has actively encouraged illegal immigration and
• compromised border security.
• There are also concerns about Biden family corruption and calls for the Justice Department to act and investigate.

 Criticisms of Trump

• Despite a slim lead in support sentiment, MIG data shows voters are also divided on Trump with some asserting he will likely not be able to win against Biden.
• There are still many concerns over Trump’s indictments and possible legal ramifications prior to the election.
• Many voters express positivity towards the Trump economy, but he also receives criticism for contributing to the national debt.
• In recent weeks, some of Trump’s comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict have caused negativity.
• Many voters still feel Trump has such bad character that he should not be permitted to serve as president again.
• There are expressions that the MAGA movement and Trump himself are racist bigots.

The Outlook for Both Candidates

• Overall, support numbers for Biden and Trump have shown Trump with a lead for the last 30 days.
• Voters give Trump higher marks on core issues like the economy, immigration and national security.
• Though both are significantly unpopular with certain groups, Biden suffersadditional doubts about his age and mental fitness; Trump maintains staunch support from his Republican base. Trump still faces considerable legal vulnerabilities that could still dampen his standing.
• Biden retains a slightly more favorable image among moderates and is less divisive among Democrats.