Donald Trump’s recent comments at a South Carolina rally on NATO and Russia sparked a media firestorm with some claiming Republicans are now doing damage control over national security issues. But new reports indicate swing state voters share the former president’s sentiment that NATO countries share the responsibility for buffering Russia.

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Speaking at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, President Trump recounted a conversation during his first term with an unnamed NATO leader. The former President told the crowd that he was asked what the U.S. would do if a NATO nation failed to uphold the alliance's mandatory two percent defense spending commitment. Trump’s reply: such a nation would have to confront the possibility of Russia acting with impunity.

Mainstream media and political elites were quick to decry Trump's remarks. President Biden criticized Trump's remarks as "un-American," a frequent knee-jerk against Trump, known for challenging establishment norms. Adding to the chorus, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed concern to NBC News that Trump’s comments would damage U.S. credibility among NATO countries.

Yet voters perceive the substance of Trump’s remarks: only 11 NATO nations meet NATO defense funding commitments, with 24 others falling short, despite the war in Ukraine being at NATO’s doorstep. Are President Trump’s stances on international issues in step with American sentiment?

Teflon Don

NPR reported that Republicans were playing “Clean Up on Aisle Trump,” in the wake of the former president’s comments. Yet The Media Intelligence Group, which analyzes social media data to provide AI-driven public sentiment insights, finds that Americans see nothing to clean up at all.

Nationally, Trump’s approval hasn’t budged since his NATO comments, standing at 47% in the seven days prior to his South Carolina rally and holding fast at 47% the following week.

Trump's ratings remained close to Biden's on issues relevant to NATO. Biden holds 47% to 46% for Trump on approval in online debates involving Ukraine, while Biden scores 48% on national security issues to Trump’s 46%.

Meanwhile the onslaught of negative press had no effect on Trump’s overall approval ratings.

Since the rally, Trump's ratings remain close to Biden's on NATO-specific discussions as well. Both Trump and Biden hold 47% approval in online debates involving Russia, while Biden scores 48% on National Security issues to Trump’s 47%. However, Biden faces difficulty in swing states over NATO and security issues.

Stronger Where it Counts, Swing States

Critically, within five days of Trump’s South Carolina rally, Trump retained his lead over Biden in head-to-head support in a majority of key swing states, indicating Trump may be in touch with voters in those states:

• AZ: Trump 48%, Biden 43%
• NV: Trump 48%, Biden 41%
• PA: Trump 47%, Biden 44%
• GA: Trump 47%, Biden 43%
• WI: Trump 44%, Biden 46%

Note: Includes independent candidate RFK Jr., sample size minimum of 1,000 respondents per candidate in each state.

Meanwhile, sentiment over the last seven days in Arizona, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania showed Biden trending down 3% on national security issues. Biden dipped to 40% compared to Trump’s 43%.

Biden remained only marginally higher on Russia, tracking at 45% to Trump’s 43%, a surprisingly close divide on a topic establishment media has sought to frame as an absolute negative for Trump since 2016. Meanwhile, Biden is losing his grip on Ukraine in swing state favorability, where Trump holds 44% approval to Biden’s 41%.

Forging Ahead

The episode typifies the political pattern that has emerged since Trump entered the political arena. Trump built a coalition confronting an entrenched Washington establishment, which in turn has attempted to characterize challenges to its agenda as a five-alarm fire. But is there a crisis? Americans outside the Beltway apparently either align with Trump’s America First outlook or reject media and establishment crisis narratives.

Swing state voters are instead weighing whether America’s security alliances benefit Americans. With the election nine months away, Trump remains in a dominant position, with opposition still struggling to crack the MAGA code.