2024 Dark Horse: RFK Jr. Rides Wave of Discontent

A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence to monitor and database the support and sentiment of candidates, adds to growing evidence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s potency in a general presidential election. 

• Analyzing online discussions of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and RFK Jr, MIG’s report averaged positive and negative comments to determine support for all three candidates and found that RFK Jr. secured 23% support across 7 states (Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Texas).

Recall that… 

• When Kennedy was still running in the Democratic primary, Kennedy found sanctuary in Republican media. Eager to compound Biden's cratering popularity amongst Democrats, Republicans amplified Kennedy's message. They even selected the Democrat scion as a witness to testify before the House subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which garnered 2 million views on YouTube. 

Shifting gears.. 

• Kennedy declared on October 9th that he was dropping his bid for Democratic presidential nominee, and would run as an Independent. Republicans quickly pounced, with Trump spokesman Steven Cheung telling CNN, “The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions.” 

Indicators and Warnings… 

• Last month, polling from USA Today/Suffolk showed Kennedy earning 13% of the vote in a three way match up between him, Biden, and Trump. 
• In a troubling sign for the Trump campaign, voters that said they would otherwise support the Republican nominee backed Kennedy 2 to 1 over those that said they would vote for the Democratic nominee without the option of Kennedy as a third party candidate. 
• Adding to growing Republican fears of a spoiler candidate, campaign finance records show that former Trump donors are giving to Kennedy at a higher rate than Democrat donors are. 

Zooming in… 

• The 2024 election already shows signs of being as razor-thin as the previous presidential election, making Kennedy poised to potentially be the most impactful third-party candidate since Ross Perot. 
• MIG’s report finds that Kennedy garners nearly 30% support in Nevada, where Biden beat Trump by just 3% in 2020.

• While Florida has been considered less and less of a battleground state since Republicans’ double digit victories in the 2022 midterms, Trump won Florida by just 3.36% in 2020. MIG’s report shows Kennedy securing 29% support amongst Florida voters who will likely already be primed to resonate with Kennedy’s criticisms of pandemic overreach after re-electing Ron DeSantis as Governor by a 19 point margin in 2022. 

Yes, but.. 

• Kennedy has also shown prowess in cutting into the Democratic voter base as well, with Quinnipiac’s latest poll finding Kennedy securing 38% support amongst 18-34 year olds, while Biden secured 32% amongst Gen Z and Millennials. 
• In the same poll, Kennedy and Biden have razor thin margins amongst Hispanics, with Kennedy garnering 33% of the vote to Biden’s 36%. Biden has a wider share of support with black voters, but Kennedy showed strength here too with 24% support to Biden’s 61%. 

Though Kennedy faces steep obstacles to breaking through America’s polarized two-party system, mounting evidence of a close 2024 election and Kennedy’s growing popularity with disillusioned independents makes writing off Kennedy's impact foolish.