Discussions responding to betting market odd of a Harris versus Trump presidential win, show Trump ahead. Social media discourse reveals both preferences for candidates and key concerns driving voter motivations.

Kamala Harris just agreed to a Fox News interview this week

Meanwhile Trump's lead on Kalshi continues to expand

🔴Donald Trump 53%
🔵Kamala Harris 47% pic.twitter.com/ecEECyS2Pz

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 14, 2024

Analysis of reactions to betting market predictions show strong support and enthusiasm for Trump, while Harris faces skepticism and criticism.

Summary of Findings

• There is strong negative sentiment toward Kamala Harris with accusations of incompetence and weak leadership.
• Positive sentiment and enthusiasm toward Donald Trump, especially regarding his past performance on the economy and security.
• Concerns about election integrity and fairness, particularly media bias and potential voter manipulation.
• Immigration and security concerns feature prominently, largely favoring Trump’s policies.
• Betting market forecasts predict Trump with a slight edge, though both candidates retain significant support.

Forecasting the Likelihood of a Winner

Social media discussions suggest Americans view Trump as having a slight edge—this is also revealed betting market odds. Predictions from MIG Reports data show Trump with 55-60% voter support, while Harris gains around 40-45%. This slight advantage for Trump is driven by the intensity of supporter loyalty and their confidence in his ability to win the election.

Negative Sentiment Toward Harris

Part of what drives Trump’s odd in the prediction markets is negativity toward Harris. At least 60% of negative sentiment is directed at Harris. This negativity stems from perceptions of her incompetence, dishonesty, and ineffective leadership.

Voters say she is unable to manage the economy, border security, and disaster response. Some also label her a "liar" or "narcissist." Much of this discourse positions Harris as failing to meet the expectations of voters who prioritize strong governance.

This negative sentiment is amplified by critiques of her economic policies, with many commenters asserting she has not adequately addressed economic policies and plans. Americans view her policy proposals as politically expedient rather than results-oriented, which creates a barrier to her appeal.

Critiques are not only directed at her professional abilities but also on voter distrust, painting Harris as disconnected from the needs of the electorate.

Positive Sentiment Toward Trump

Conversely, Trump has strong support in social media discussions, with up to 85% of positive sentiment focused on him. Supporters cite his past economic successes and highlight his assertive leadership style. They use nostalgic language, emphasizing his “America First” policies and framing him as protecting traditional values.

Trump’s base is energized, expressing confidence that he will win the election. Phrases like “freedom” and “MAGA” dominate the conversation, indicating the potency of his populist appeal. Voters see him as the candidate to correct policy missteps the Biden-Harris administration, but also as the candidate to restore economic and national stability.

Concerns About Election Integrity

Both sides express concerns about election integrity as 40% of the comments voice skepticism about the fairness of the election. Trump supporters fear voter fraud or manipulation and Harris supporters fear media bias and vote suppression. There is an overall sense that the election’s outcome could be contested or undermined, regardless of who wins.

Concerns about fairness seem to fuel the enthusiasm for Trump, as many of his supporters believe winning the election will require overcoming institutional bias and cheating. This narrative has the potential to increase voter turnout on both sides, as each camp feels the integrity of their political system is at stake.

Immigration and Security Concerns

Immigration and border security is a force tipping the scales for Trump. Many argue Harris’s policies enable uncontrolled immigration, which they associate with increased crime and economic instability.

Around 75% of comments contain concern about immigration. These discussions favor Trump’s tougher stance and frame Harris as unable to handle the issue. Trump supporters view his leadership on this issue as a central reason for their continued loyalty.

Economic Issues

Trump’s successful first term regarding economic stability and growth are a major driver of positive sentiment. Roughly 68% of discussions express support for Trump, framing him as the candidate for restoring prosperity and reversing inflationary trends. Harris’s economic platform receives 65% of critical comments, highlighting her inability to navigate the complexities of recovery.

These conversations focus on how Trump’s policies led to higher employment rates, tax cuts, and general economic optimism. Voters view Harris as reactive and tied to an administration that has struggled to contain economic challenges.

Affirmative Language and Enthusiasm

Kamala Harris

Discussion about Harris does not generate significant affirmative language or enthusiasm. Less than 25% of comments voice positive sentiment towards her, and less than 10% express strong enthusiasm. Much of her support is defensive, with advocates highlighting the need for unity and social progress. However, Harris voters lack the fervor of Trump’s base. Phrases like “we can do this” appear, but they often lack the energetic confidence seen in Trump’s camp.

Donald Trump

Trump’s base voices robust enthusiasm, with 75% of comments using positive or affirmative language. His base frequently uses phrases like “MAGA” and “vote for my freedoms,” depicting a sense of urgency and passion about his candidacy. Enthusiasm for Trump remains high, peaking near 80% of comments showing strong engagement. This suggests his supporters are not only vocal but motivated to turn out and vote.

A viral video from Texas poll worker training reignited concerns about election integrity. In the clip, a trainer says the Texas Secretary of State is directing poll workers to allow non-citizen IDs to be used as valid identification at polling places. He explained this by saying poll workers are to “assume” non-citizens have become naturalized but simply failed to update their ID.

🚨BREAKING: Texas Secretary of State directs poll workers to accept NON CITIZEN driver’s licenses as ID to vote.

WATCH Denton County Elections Administrator Frank Phillips telling poll worker trainees SOS elections director
advised non citizen ID ok to vote.

See receipts🕵🏻 pic.twitter.com/MDIuRy2vPD

— Joseph Trimmer (@JosephTrimmer_) October 9, 2024

This video is sparking debate in Texas and across the country about ongoing election integrity concerns. For those already worried about election integrity, emerging reports imply calculated efforts by state and local officials to muddy the waters on voting transparency.

Republicans Most Concerned about Voter Fraud

• Conservatives: 75% believe allowing non-citizen IDs invites fraud and undermines election integrity.
• Moderates: 50% are concerned over illegal immigrants voting, though they emphasize they do not want legitimate votes suppressed.
• Liberals: 60% dismiss concerns of non-citizen voting, saying all measures in question are limited to ensuring access for legitimate voters.

Many on the right increasingly raise alarm about illegal immigrants potentially voting in the election. They say accepting non-citizen IDs is a direct assault on election integrity. Republicans are the most vocal about widespread fraud in the election, with some agreement from moderates.

Concerned voters feel betrayed by corrupt establishment powers willing to take drastic steps to secure the election for Democrats. Moderates, while less passionate, still echo caution about transparency after 2020 confusion and accusations.

Those on the left downplay concerns about illegal immigrants voting. They say illegitimate votes are either so minimal or nonexistent as to be unimportant. Instead, they focus on implementing inclusion measures, accusing conservatives of fearmongering and trying to suppress legitimate votes.

• In the last 14 days, sentiment regarding election integrity averaged 43.5% among Democrats and 39.7% among Republicans.

Election Integrity in Swing States

• 84% of voters fear fraud in critical swing states could sway election results.
• Fraud fears focus on cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit.

Election fraud in important swing states especially worries those who believe the election process is under threat. Many cite Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada as areas of high concern.

Battlegrounds where every vote is critical for securing a win put Americans are on high alert for fraud. A dramatic 84% of voters say they worry about improper voting practices, mentioning things like accepting non-citizen IDs or ballot harvesting.

Voters say they worry that even minimal fraud efforts in critical counties could sway state results and even the election. Cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit, where past allegations of fraud continue to sour trust, generate high levels of concern. Particularly on the right, many remain convinced that 2020 was rife with irregularities and attempts to exploit loopholes—both of which they say may happen again in 2024.

Disillusionment and Voter Turnout

• 45% of young voters (18-34) plan to vote in 2024.
• 62% of all voters believe media bias distorts election fraud realities.
• Many cite disillusionment with both major parties and the political system.

Many older voters are focused on election integrity, but younger voters say they feel disengaged and disillusioned. Less than half of the 18-34 demographic say they plan to vote in the 2024 election. Previous MIG Reports analysis also showed 45% of Christians say they do not plan to vote.

More than half of voters say mainstream media intentionally downplays legitimate concerns about voting irregularities. This fuels distrust in the press and voter confidence in government transparency. This distrust is strongest among Republicans who view the media as consistently running cover for Democrats.

Voter disillusionment is a growing issue for both parties, often stemming from distrust in institutions—including the election process. Young voters say Democrats and Republicans both fail to paint a compelling vision for the future. They often feel the entire political system is broken, voicing discouragement and apathy.

The risk for Trump is that growing disengagement could hurt turnout if voters do not believe the election process is secure. The GOP is making strides to implement election integrity measures, but whether that will assuage voter cynicism remains unclear.

Democrats Focus on Misinformation

• 78% of Democrats emphasize combating disinformation over voter fraud.
• Democrats worry about voter suppression and protecting access to voting.
• They dismiss worries about non-citizens voting, focusing instead on laws they see as restrictive—like voter ID laws.

Most Democrats dismiss concerns about election integrity, saying Republicans are stuck on 2020 narratives which have been proven untrue. This group is more worried about controlling disinformation on social media and right-leaning media outlets.

Combating voter suppression and preventing unfounded fraud allegations is a top priority for Democratic voters. They say election cheating narratives are politically motivated to suppress voter turnout, particularly in marginalized communities.

Republicans Tie Immigration to Election Fraud

• 72% of Republicans are skeptical about mail-in voting and illegals voting.
• 59% feel disillusioned about how GOP leadership is handling election integrity.

Skepticism and discouragement are high among Republicans. They say election integrity is critical, with 72% voicing worries about various voter fraud methods. Many Republicans believe Democrats plan to manipulate election results, with few precautions from GOP leaders.

A focal point of worry is on swing states, where control of the Senate and the White House could be at stake. Republicans often express feelings of betrayal by party leaders and say they lack confidence in a fair election.

Recently, Barack Obama appealed to black men, addressing them as "brothas," urging support for Kamala Harris. MIG Reports analysis shows wide-ranging and polarized reactions on social media.

NEW: Former President Barack Obama says the "brothas" aren't turning out for Kamala Harris like they did for him.

The comments from Obama came during an event at the University of Pittsburgh where Obama sounded the alarm on black voters.

"We have not yet seen the same kinds of… pic.twitter.com/v77CHcOv2A

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 10, 2024

The response to Obama’s call brings up issues of identity, representation, and disillusionment within the black community—particularly black men. While there is support for and skepticism toward Obama's message, many raise questions about the larger implications of Democrats losing critical voter groups.

Reaction Trends

Skepticism and Criticism

Around 65-70% of reactions to Obama’s comments are skeptical or outright critical. Voters question Kamala Harris's authenticity as a representative of black Americans, citing concerns that her background and political record do not resonate with the struggles of black men.

Critics largely perceive Obama’s lecture as political manipulation, designed to rally votes without offering meaningful engagement with their concerns. The criticism extends to both Obama and Harris, with many expressing frustration that Democratic elites are disconnected from the economic and social struggles of the communities they claim to represent.

Support for Obama and Harris

Only 20-25% of voters react with support for Obama’s message. This group resonates with his call for racial solidarity. They view the appeal as a necessary rallying cry for empowering black leaders, emphasizing the importance of unity behind Harris.

Supporters believe voting for Harris represents a larger effort to secure political representation for marginalized voices, especially in a time of heightened political stakes. For these voters, Obama’s message carries the weight of moral and racial duty to uplift black leaders in positions of power.

Neutral or Indifferent Reactions

Another 10-15% make neutral or indifferent comments toward Obama’s appeal. They view his call as a standard political maneuver—lacking any significant personal relevance or emotional connection.

They perceive the plea as part of routine political rhetoric rather than a heartfelt call to action. For this group, the message does not resonate deeply enough to move their political allegiances or inspire any meaningful change in perspectives of Harris or the Democratic Party.

Identity and Representation

Across all discussions, the tension between identity politics and political authenticity is a recurring theme. Critical voters feel Obama used identity as leverage or as a political tool, with little regard for the true needs of black men.

Kamala Harris’s identity as a black woman is both a potential point of connection and a source of division. Many black voters feel her policies and political stances do not adequately address the challenges they face. A struggle between representation and authentic engagement is infused in skepticism about Obama's message.

Political Fatigue and Disillusionment

Voters also discuss political fatigue and disillusionment, especially among younger black voters. There is a feeling that Democratic leadership has failed to deliver on promises of change. People often mention economic instability, housing, and systemic inequality in their critical responses.

People are frustrated with empty rhetoric from political elites, with little tangible impact on their daily lives. This sense of betrayal and disillusionment has led to growing political apathy and a reluctance to engage in traditional political processes.

Fractured Political Loyalties

There is a fracture within the black electorate, with many black men feeling increasingly alienated from the Democratic Party. Skepticism toward Harris and the perceived disconnect between political leaders and the community leads to a shift in political loyalties.

This divide is particularly pronounced among younger voters, who are less likely to feel bound by traditional party lines. They are more inclined to question the authenticity and effectiveness of their political representatives.

Potential for Engagement

Despite overwhelming criticism and political fatigue, Obama's message still holds the potential to mobilize certain segments of the black electorate. For those who resonate with his call for unity, the appeal could serve as a rallying point for increased political activism.

However, high levels of skepticism and disillusionment may make it difficult for the Democratic Party to get engagement and voter turnout. Moving forward, the party will need to address these deeper concerns if it hopes to retain the support of black voters, particularly black men.

Social media reactions wend wild with a clip of Kamala Harris using a teleprompter during an alleged "unscripted" town hall. Discussions revolve around public trust in media, Harris’s inauthenticity, and political engagement in today’s polarized climate.

🚨 BREAKING: Univision accidentally broadcast proof that Kamala used a teleprompter at her town hall

Watch them panic when they realized they were showing the prompter live on-air pic.twitter.com/fiUFcfN2Kx

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 11, 2024

This is the third viral teleprompter event after a video clip circulated which appeared to show Kamala Harris struggling to find words during a rally with allegations that her teleprompter stopped working.

JUST IN: Kamala Harris has no clue what to say after her teleprompter appears to stop working, keeps repeating herself.

The Vice President kept repeating “32 days.”

“Remember his number 32 today? We got 32 days until the election.”

“So 32 days… 32 days… Okay. We got some… pic.twitter.com/2fIl1nyEkq

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 4, 2024

Prior to that, Harris also received backlash after her campaign event and interview with Oprah, where a brief camera angle again showed Harris being guided by a prompter.

WOW! Apparently Kamala Harris had a freaking TELEPROMPTER during her “interview” with Oprah

Scamala Harris is a fraud! pic.twitter.com/BZ7RGahJXs

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 22, 2024

Leadership and Authenticity in Question

These events are causing Americans to discuss authenticity and proficiency. Many view Harris’s reliance on a teleprompter as indicative of broader issues. They say perceptions that Harris can only speak in scripted situations disconnects her from everyday voters. It also causes many to question her proficiency in critical subjects important for a president to understand and communicate about.

More voters voice doubt about her ability to handle unscripted moments—an essential skill for someone in office. The event also sparked memes, poking fun at Harris’s apparent inability to speak clearly without direction.

LOL! pic.twitter.com/7660YPumm9

— Dr. Simon Goddek (@goddeketal) October 11, 2024

Skepticism is strong among working-class voters, many of whom are grappling with economic challenges like inflation, housing costs, and healthcare access. Already feeling neglected by the Biden-Harris administration, they are frustrated that leaders seem more concerned with media optics and controlling messaging than substantive action. To this group, Harris’s inauthenticity reveals ineffective leadership and an inability to meaningfully engage with voters.

Demographic and Sentiment Breakdown

The controversy resonated across demographic groups, with varied reactions depending on cultural and linguistic backgrounds.

Latino and Spanish-speaking Communities

The teleprompter event aired on Univision, with a portion of the discourse in Spanish. Among Latino audiences, reactions were mixed.

• Some feel disillusioned, citing Harris’s failure to connect authentically with a demographic that is typically critical to the Democratic base.
• Immigration, a deeply personal issue for many, features prominently in criticisms as many disapprove of Harris’s immigration policies.
• A smaller segment defends Harris, emphasizing her progressive stances on social justice and reproductive rights They argue criticism stems from biases against women of color in leadership.

Economic and Policy Concerns

Discussions from economically vulnerable and middle-class groups focus heavily on Harris’s perceived failure to address key issues like rising living costs and healthcare.

• The teleprompter symbolizes a deeper chronic detachment from the struggles of ordinary Americans.
• Harris's policies—particularly around immigration and government spending—are presented evidence that Democrats do not prioritize American citizens.

Polarization and Ideological Division

Reactions to Harris’s town hall appearance are politically divided. For conservative voters, this incident is another example of a failing administration disconnected from its base and mainstream American values. This group makes comparisons between Harris and former President Trump, with critics praising Trump’s direct, unscripted communication style and portraying Harris as overly reliant on canned talking points.

Dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration also surfaces among swing voters and Independents. They view Harris’s performance as political opportunism, lacking leadership qualities and policy vision.

Democrats are defensive, asserting those on the right are overreacting. Many also claim Trump is incoherent and babbling, revealing he has weaker political understandings than Harris.

Media and Manipulation of Public Perception

Voters also discuss the role of media in shaping public perceptions. Some felt touting the appearance as "unscripted" while Harris used a teleprompter confirms their belief that media outlets craft an artificial image of political leaders. This incident fuels a growing belief that the media, especially left leaning outlets, manipulate public perception by controlling how events are framed.

Broader Implications for Political Engagement

A growing perception that Harris is inauthentic and unqualified threatens political engagement among her voters. Disillusionment and frustration are apparent, particularly among swing voters and Independents.

Many are concerned that neither party adequately addresses the pressing issues of the day, leading to a sense of alienation from the political system. This discontent may lead to decreased voter enthusiasm and turnout, especially by those who feel left behind by the political establishment.

Recent media scandals and accusations of “misinformation” serve to further entrench voters in their existing views about free speech and media bias.

MIG Reports data shows:

• Republicans and conservatives blame legacy media outlets of skewing news in favor of Democrats.
• Democrat and liberals are more likely to believe the news unfairly benefits conservatives.
• Free speech advocates view X as a critical platform for keeping media outlets accountable.

CBS and the 60 Minutes Scandal

A "60 Minutes" interview with Harris has become a flashpoint of discussion about media bias and free speech on X (formerly Twitter). Many people online pointed out misleading edits during the interview, with two versions of Harris’s answer to a question—one coherent and the other a “word salad.”

A giant Fake News Scam by CBS & 60 Minutes. Her REAL ANSWER WAS CRAZY, OR DUMB, so they actually REPLACED it with another answer in order to save her or, at least, make her look better. A FAKE NEWS SCAM, which is totally illegal. TAKE AWAY THE CBS LICENSE. Election Interference.… pic.twitter.com/JRxSda3NeC

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 10, 2024

• 63% of voters are frustrated over CBS obscuring the reality of Harris’s responses, saying the network is betraying its political bias.
• Voters called for CBS to release a full transcript of the interview, demanding transparency and accountability.
• Americans say the mainstream media has abandoned impartial journalism and lies to help Democrats.
• Conservatives believe legacy media outlets systematically discredit conservative figures and viewpoints, making platforms like X critical for free speech.

Hillary Clinton’s Call for Information Control

Hillary Clinton recently made comments on CNN extolling the need for controlling misinformation. In a viral clip, she criticized Section 230 and called for its repeal. She said if social media platforms “don’t moderate and monitor the content, we lose total control.”

“If they don’t moderate the content, we lose total control.”

— Hillary Clinton pic.twitter.com/TeJ7qaIeaS

— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) October 6, 2024

• 68% of voters criticize Clinton’s stance, calling it a violation of free speech and the Constitution.
• Voters say Democrats and the media advocate for censorship and using government force to silence opposing viewpoints.
• Many, especially on the right, say Clinton and others use accusations of “misinformation” to suppress dissenting opinions rather than promote truth.

X as a Free Speech Stronghold

Previous MIG Reports analysis showed less than 25% of all voters trust mainstream media. With this collapse of trust, more Americans prefer alternative platforms like X, which they see as vital for free expression.

• 62% of voters believe X plays an essential role in facilitating free speech and serving as an alternative to biased mainstream outlets.
• 48% worry legacy media and politicians are trying to suppress information shared on X and other online platforms.
• Democrats and Republicans both distrust media but cite bias as benefitting the opposite viewpoints.

Conservative Distrust in Media

Republicans and right leaning voters often feel frustration that mainstream media portrays conservative leaders, especially Trump, in a negative light. Many also point out that legacy outlets like MSNBC admit their bias in favor of Democrats behind closed doors. They say news outlets amplify or suppress stories based on whether they help or hurt Democrats.

BREAKING: @MSNBC Producer Admits MSNBC Is 'Doing All They Can to Help’ the Harris Campaign

During an undercover date with an OMG journalist, Basel Hamdan (@BaselYHamdan), a writer and producer for MSNBC’s show “Ayman,” (@AymanMSNBC) was asked what the network has done to assist… pic.twitter.com/y9Yk8o1UX7

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) October 3, 2024

• 40% of conservatives discuss their outrage over media portrayals of Trump, arguing the press systematically manipulates narratives to discredit him.
• 65% argue “woke” culture is eroding traditional American values, contributing to extreme political discourse.
• 68% are concerned that the Biden-Harris administration wants to silence critical viewpoints, particularly during times of crisis or controversy.

Democrats Say Media Favors Trump

While Democrats also distrust the media, they believe bias favors conservatives. Many discuss “misinformation” and “disinformation,” saying it is a significant problem exclusive to the right.

• 70% of Democrats believe the media fails to hold Trump accountable for lies, suggesting a systemic bias in favor of conservative narratives.
• 65% say the media amplifies conservative claims about immigration being a crisis, while downplaying the benefits of diverse populations.
• 80% perceive conservative-leaning outlets as promoting misleading information to undermine Democrat credibility.

Inflation is holding strong as a defining economic issue for voters in 2024. Since Biden and Harris took office, reports show consumer prices have risen more than 20%. Americans feel very little hope for relief if trends continue. Online discussions show strong dissatisfaction among all voters, though with some partisan disagreements about who is at fault.

If you made $100,000 a year when Biden-Harris took office...

Congratulations, you now make $83,000 a year.

Vote accordingly. pic.twitter.com/WAV2dI7m47

— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) October 10, 2024

MIG Reports analysis shows:

• 64% of overall voters blame Biden and Harris for the current economy.
• 72% of Americans are unhappy with current wages relative to the cost of living.
• 59% express feelings of financial helplessness due to rising costs.

Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data justifies the negative sentiment Americans express with Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends during the Biden-Harris administration:

• The cost of All Items rose 21% from 2020 to today.
• Food at Home surged 25%.
• Medical Care costs have risen 10%.
• Rent for Urban Consumers rose 24.8% during the current administration.

Americans feel inflation as more than a statistic—they feel it as a daily reality. Discussions on social media overwhelmingly focus on the struggle to cover basic needs like groceries, housing, and healthcare. This is where 72% of voters express dissatisfaction with wage levels relative to inflation. Conservatives are often most vocal, viewing inflation as a consequence of Biden-Harris economic policies.

Wages Aren’t Keeping Up

The mismatch between rising prices and stagnant wages is further driving voter frustration. While the government reports nominal wage gains, increases are swiftly negated by inflation. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows median weekly wages reached $1,151 this year. However, when adjusted for inflation, purchasing power is equivalent to just $946 in 2020 dollars. This gap between nominal and real wages highlights the tangible quality of life strains Americans feel.

MIG Reports data shows:

• 48% of economic discussions mention wage stagnation.
• 60% are skeptical of government statistics on job growth and wages.

Many Americans feel they’re being lied to about the state of the economy—though this sentiment is more common among Republicans. Voters say the so-called wage increases mean nothing when they cannot afford the same expenses they did four years ago.

Partisan Political Blame

Overall, Americans are unhappy about the economy. Most blame the Biden-Harris administration for rising inflationary pressures, but there are partisan divides. Sentiment is strongest among Republicans with 84% blaming Biden-Harris as the primary source of economic hardship.

Republicans

Inflation and the economy are top issues for Republicans, along with border security.

• Economic Mismanagement: Republicans view Democratic policies, particularly the American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act, as directly fueling inflation. They believe these measures injected too much money into the economy, benefiting government and corporate interests at the expense of citizens.
• Support for Trump: 85% of Republican voters intend to vote for Trump, saying his policies manage economic issues more effectively. They often cite pre-COVID quality of life, calling for “America First” policies that reduce government spending.
• Distrust of Government: 55% of Republicans are skeptical that a Harris administration would implement any substantial policy changes. They view the government’s attempts to combat inflation as ineffective or exacerbating.

The dominant tone among Republicans is one of anger and distrust, with many voters convinced that a change in leadership is the only way to address the rising cost of living.

Democrats

Many Democratic voters defend Biden’s economic policies, citing wage growth and job creation, though some acknowledge the ongoing challenges of rising costs.

• Economic Optimism: 25% of Democratic voters highlight Biden-Harris efforts to address inflation, pointing to initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and the American Rescue Plan as positive steps. They say inflation is now under control.
• Blaming Trump: 60% blame inflation on Trump’s legacy, specifically citing his tax policies, trade wars, and COVID-19 policies. They view Biden and Harris as working to fix problems inherited from Trump, not creating new ones.
• Frustration Over Jobs: However, 15% are skeptical about whether Biden-Harris initiatives will make lasting improvements. They acknowledge positive job reports but worry about wage growth. Tim Walz in particular is facing state-level criticism for perceived mismanagement.

The Democratic voter base is split between those who defend the administration and those who are frustrated by inflation and stagnating wages. The largest theme is defensiveness, as many say the highest priority is preventing a second Trump term.

Independents

Discussion among Independents is low, but most express disillusionment with both political parties. Many directly blame Democrats, but there is not loss of criticism for Trump as well.

• Economic Frustration: 62% focus on rising costs of living and the strain of inflation on average American families. There is urgency and a call for immediate action to slow skyrocketing prices.
• Kamala Blame: Many Independents criticize Harris for not addressing the inflation crisis effectively in the last four years. They say she mismanaged the economy as well as immigration, which impacts both economic strain and public safety.
• Poor Disaster Response: 25% criticize inequities in government support following Helene and Milton. Many voice discontent over the federal government prioritizing illegal immigrants over American citizens affected natural disasters.

Economic Discontent Drives Votes

With Election Day less than a month away, economic discontent is likely to influence voter behavior. Trump is poised to capitalize on this frustration, especially in swing states where economic concerns are a high priority.

Predictions

• Republican Turnout: Many expect high voter turnout among Republicans, particularly in suburban and rural areas hit hardest by inflation and stagnant wages.
• Few Swing Votes: Independents and moderates, though disillusioned with both parties, may swing Republican if Trump maintains strong economic messaging and Harris continues to fumble media hits.
• Economic Discontent: If Americans continue to feel individually impacted by economic conditions, they are likely to lean further into a change platform. Mixed messaging from Biden and Harris on Harris’s track record and future plans will likely push voters toward Trump.

Less than 30 days from the election, voter discussions focus on the economy, border security, disaster response. The ideological divides between Harris and Trump drive voter disagreements, but Trump looks stronger on sentiment and voter engagement.

What Voters are Saying

• 60-65% of voters voice positive opinions about Trump’s candidacy.
• The GOP base uses affirmative language of personal commitment and agency.
• 35-40% say they support Harris, with discussions driven by party loyalty and anti-Trump sentiment.
• Feelings toward Harris are mixed, with critiques of her leadership often dominating discussions.

Trump

Affirmative and Personal Support

Trump's supporters use strong, first-person language like "I believe" and "I will vote," reflecting personal investment and a sense of urgency to restore national stability.

Voters view him as competent with economic policy and national security. These issues, along with immigration, drive voter support. Many say they hope he will be a corrective force against Biden-Harris failures over the last four years.

Opposition to Democrats

Some of Trump’s support comes from voters frustrated with Biden and Harris. They disapprove of how Democrats have handled certain crises like immigration, the economy, and natural disasters. Trump's leadership offers hope for a return to order, with voters frequently invoking themes of national pride and urgency for change.

Harris

Opposition to Trump

Voter support for Harris is largely reactive. Most of her backing comes from voters who oppose Trump rather than enthusiastically endorsing her policies. First-person affirmations are less common, and the overall tone is defensive. This suggests party loyalty and anti-Trump sentiment buoy her voting base.

Progressives and Mixed Sentiment

Left leaning progressive support Harris’s stance on healthcare, education, and abortion. But much of the overall conversation is critical. Negative sentiment—even among Democrats—focuses on immigration, critiques of her leadership, and disappointment with foreign policy and the economy.

Economic Issues

• Economic dissatisfaction dominates voter conversations, mentioning inflation, high taxes, and rising costs of living.
• Many voters say Biden-Harris policies have exacerbated these issues, comparing 2024 conditions to memories of Trump’s presidency.
• Sentiment is negative, driven by frustration over stagnant wages and increased financial burdens.

Border Security

• Border security and immigration remain highly contentious, generating strong dissatisfaction.
• There is widespread anger at Biden and Harris for using FEMA funds in illegal immigrants instead of for federal disaster relief.
• Anger about FEMA funds exacerbates frustration about the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants under Biden and Harris.
• Demands for border security feeds into Trump’s "America First" messaging, reinforcing negative views of Democratic polices.

Disaster Response

• The aftermath of Hurricane Helene is driving voter ire toward Harris.
• Many voters feel the federal response has been nonexistent, with insufficient financial aid provided for Americans who lost everything.
• This issue contributes significantly to the negative sentiment, worsening negativity toward Harris in the last few weeks of campaigning.

Ideological Divide

• Americans continue to be polarized ideologically with strong national sentiments on the right, and globalist view on the left.
• Trump supporters view Democrats as advancing radical leftist policies, often calling Harris a far-left progressive, a socialist, or a communist.
• Divides are deep, with loyalty to worldview shaped as much by values as by policies.

Foreign Policy

• Many on both sides of the aisle are worried about foreign policy—particularly in Ukraine and Israel.
• Americans feel foreign conflicts divert attention and resources from domestic issues.
• Negative sentiment ties into broader anxieties about national security and government priorities, with many favoring a return to Trump's foreign policy.
• Segments of the Democratic base also object to Harris’s policy regarding Israel, accusing her of betraying progressive values by not calling for a ceasefire.

Housing

• Housing affordability is also a pressing concern.
• Voters criticize Democrats for prioritizing aid to immigrants over addressing rising costs for American families.
• There is a strong sentiment that economic and housing conditions have worsened under Biden
• People often say Trump’s presidency provided a more favorable quality of life for middle-class Americans.

Social media discussions among Democratic voters reveal a growing divide in support for Harris versus Trump. Conversations contain strong emotional reactions based on personal beliefs and polarized opinions about the country’s future. MIG Reports analysis shows motivations behind Democratic voter preferences, their sentiments towards both candidates, and linguistic patterns characterizing conversations.

What Democrats are Saying

• 60-65% of Democrats are critical of Harris's leadership, particularly on immigration and economic issues.
• 35-40% of Democrats say they’re willing to support Trump, driven by frustration with the current economy and foreign policy.
• Conversations about both candidates are divided and emotionally charged, with strong language expressing support or dissatisfaction.

Support for Kamala Harris

Most Democrats support the Harris-Walz ticket—around 60-65%. These voters voice their intention to vote for Harris in November. Some of the top reasons for support include:

• Tax Policy: 45% of Democrats cite Harris’s tax policies, particularly the Child Tax Credit, as a reason for their backing. They see it as a benefit for middle-class families.
• Policy Alignment: 30% focus on abortion and DEI. Her stance on progressive issues resonates with this segment of the Democratic base.
• Party Loyalty: 25% express their loyalty to the Democratic Party, citing lifelong affiliation as their reason for supporting Harris-Walz.
• Experience: 15-25% value her experience as Vice President, viewing her as competent and capable of leading.

Support for Donald Trump

Despite his Republican affiliation, MIG Reports data suggests Donald Trump may gain votes from around 35-40% of Democratic voters. This contrasts sharply with only 15% of Republicans who say they would vote for Harris. The reasons voters cite in conversation include:

• Economic Policies: Of the 35-40% of Democrats willing to vote Trump, half emphasize his tax cuts and pro-business policies. They credit him with fostering economic stability.
• National Security: 30% of Democratic Trump supporters cite his stance on border security as a major factor driving their decision.
• Frustration with Harris: 20% crossing the aisle say they're unhappy with Biden-Harris policies on immigration and disaster response for Helene and Milton.

Sentiment and Emotional Tone

Harris Negativity

• Harris has majority support within her Party, but still faces significant criticism.
• A drastic 70% of Harris-related discussions include negative comments about her policies and leadership.
• The most frequent critiques mention her track record on immigration and a lack of competence as Vice President.
• Democrats use terms like “incompetence” and “disgrace” in Harris conversations.

Trump Polarization

• Discussion about Trump is divided, with 60% of comments positively noting his economic policies.
• 40% of Democrats talking about Trump are sharply critical of his past controversies and behavior.
• Trump supporters view him as a strong leader who can restore order, while detractors focus on his polarizing rhetoric and failures.

Swing States

In critical swing states, patterns are similar to national Democratic sentiment. Harris generally receives more support than Trump, but there is some variability compared to national trends.

Harris Support

In swing states, Harris's support varies more significantly, with Democratic approval swinging wildly between 30% and 70%.

• Reasons for support are largely consistent, mentioning social issues, tax policies, and her experience as VP.
• However, the intensity of this support fluctuates more among swing state voters.
• This variability likely reflects the more competitive nature of these states, where voters may feel less firmly aligned along party lines.

Trump Support

Trump gains higher support in some swing states. Some reports show up to 55% of early voting favoring Trump.

• Higher Trump support reveals heightened dissatisfaction with Democratic leaders on immigration and economic issues.
• Trump supporters in swing states cite his strength on national security and economic policies.
• Democratic support is likely strongest in these battleground areas compared to national support, which is dampened by deeply blue areas.

Similarities

Across both national and swing state discussions, the reasons for supporting each candidate remain consistent. Democrats like Harris for her social policies and progressive stances. But Trump gets mentioned for his economic policies and tough foreign policy. Voters nationwide express dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration, particularly on immigration and disaster response.

Biggest Differences

The major difference is the level of support for each candidate. In swing states, Democrats may be more willing to cross party lines. Harris’s support indicates greater variability, suggesting she hasn’t locked in her entire base.

Trump’s support is significantly higher in some swing states, likely due to economic stressors in middle class populations and border states frustrated about immigration. Disparities underscore the unpredictable dynamics of this election, where voter sentiment is difficult to pin down and political allegiance is less fixed than in prior years.

Discussions among Republicans on social media provides insights into their voting preferences—and clear trends toward Trump. Through affirmative first-person language, reasons for candidate support, trending discussion topics, and linguistic patterns, analysis breaks down voter likelihood in the GOP.

Less than a month away from election day, Republicans overwhelmingly support Trump, and Harris gains minimal, largely negative attention from never-Trumpers. MIG Reports data echoes NYT-Sienna polling indicating only 9% of Republicans plan to vote for Harris.

What Voters are Saying

MIG Reports data shows:

• 85% of Republican voters express affirmative support for Donald Trump.
• 15% voice support for Kamala Harris.
• 75-90% of posts mentioning Trump voice optimism about his return to office.
• 80-85% of discussions regarding Harris are negative, critiquing her policies and performance.

This data suggests, despite his polarizing image and some establishment Republicans and RINOs voicing never-Trump sentiments, most Republicans plan to vote Trump. It also undermines mainstream media and Democratic narratives suggesting Republicans are so frustrated with Trump, they’re crossing the aisle.

New Kamala ad airing in Pennsylvania depicts a "lifelong Republican," and "former Trump voter" grilling on a Blackstone, professing his newfound support for Kamala Harris.

Only one problem: he never voted for Trump in a general election. pic.twitter.com/5Wg1jAwqKp

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) October 4, 2024

Anti-Trump Republicans Vote Harris

Republican discussions prominently feature affirmative, first-person language confirming support for Donald Trump. They say things like, "I’m already voting for Trump" and "Trump is the only one who can fix this country." This shows a high level of personal commitment among GOP voters who believe in his leadership and vision for America.

Discussions about Kamala Harris rarely include direct affirmations of support. When voter mention her, it is often in a cautious tone, with statements like “I’ll vote for Harris just to stop Trump.” This suggests Democratic support from Republicans is driven by animosity toward Trump or the MAGA coalition.

Reasons for Voting Preferences

• Republicans say they support Trump for his economic record, with 65% referencing the lower unemployment rates and market stability during his administration.
• Immigration and national security are also significant support drivers. Voters view Trump's stricter border control policies as critical.
• Trump's combative stance against the establishment and mainstream media, seen as corrupt by many on the right, adds to his appeal.
• Harris supporters focus may mention social justice and abortion, but their support is driven by opposition to Trump rather than endorsement for Harris.

Discussion Trends and Sentiment

• 75-90% of discussions express confidence in Trump's ability to restore America. People mention “restoring order” and “fixing the mess.”
• 80-85% of Harris discussions are negative, criticizing her as incompetent—especially on immigration and disaster response.

Linguistic Patterns

Linguistic analysis reveals distinct patterns in the way voters discuss Trump and Harris.

• Trump supporters use highly emotive and assertive language, framing the election as a “battle” for America’s future.
• They use words like “betrayed,” “destroyed,” and “warrior” convey a strong sense of urgency and personal investment in the outcome.
• Harris voters in the GOP have a hesitant tone, where support is often expressed in defensive terms or framed as a necessary opposition to Trump.

Conclusion

The narrative emerging from Republican social media discussions shows strong loyalty and commitment to Trump. Support is driven by his track record on economic management, national security, and his anti-establishment stance.

While Kamala Harris garners some support, it is largely from never-Trumpers rather than supporters who appreciate her policies or leadership. The highly polarized nature of the language used to discuss these candidates reflects partisan ideological divides shaping the 2024 election.