The Department of Labor’s May Jobless Claims report revealed the highest level of jobless claims since August 2023. This news has triggered a broad spectrum of reactions and discussions across different demographic groups and political affiliations. MIG Reports analysis of the conversations highlight varying levels of confidence in political leadership. There is a pronounced contrast between supporter for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Demographic Patterns

Younger demographics, especially those active on platforms like X (Twitter), tend to respond with a mix of concern and criticism toward Biden’s economic policies. Older demographics and those in traditional industries or unionized sectors also express significant concern over job security and the impacts of regulatory changes. Across multiple demographics, there is a direct interest in the government policies affecting job stability.

Discussion Trends and Patterns

Critics of the Biden administration argue that policy failures and mismanagement are to blame for the rise in jobless claims. For example, a conversation involving Senator Joe Manchin and Acting Secretary Julie Su about the NLRB’s joint employer rule illustrates concerns that current labor policies might be contributing to job losses.

Senator Manchin's questioning of Secretary Su, and her inability to provide data on job losses, has fueled further criticism and speculation about the administration's transparency and competency in handling labor issues.

On the other hand, Biden supporters argue external factors such as global economic slowdowns or ongoing adjustments from COVID are to blame. They downplay policy missteps and initiatives as a cause. However, these voices are less prominent in the conversation, suggesting either a quieter support base or a shift in public confidence. Many voters indicate a deep mistrust in the current administration, linking job losses to broader accusations of deception and mismanagement.

Confidence in Biden vs. Trump

Confidence levels in President Biden appear to be waning among many voter groups, especially in conjunction with the jobless claims report. Online discussions suggest a longing for the economic policies under former President Trump. Many seem to view the Trump era as more favorable to job creation and economic stability.

The comparison between Biden and Trump in handling the economy is a recurring theme. Many Americans are expressing nostalgia for the "pre-Biden" economic conditions.

MIG Reports analysis of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “Employment Situation Summary,” known as the jobs report, reveals American sentiment is predominantly negative. Many stakeholders and observers are describing the job numbers as "horrible," "not strong," and indicative of a struggling economy. This is no surprise after skepticism around previous jobs reports this year.

Notably, there are concerns about the authenticity and impact of the reported job numbers. While there are some optimistic takes regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could boost the stock market, the overall sentiment leans toward concern and dissatisfaction with the current state of job creation.

What Americans Are Saying

• Credibility of Job Numbers: There is a notable discussion about the authenticity and reliability of the job numbers released. Some question the methods and political influences behind these report figures.
• Political Impact: The reactions are heavily polarized along political lines, with figures like Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi’s comments on MSBNC featuring in discussions about job loss records and economic performance.
• Economic Policies: Legislation like the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act are mentioned in the context of their supposed impact on job creation, with differing views on their effectiveness.
• Interest Rates and Stock Market: There's a recurring theme about how bad job numbers might lead to lower interest rates, which could paradoxically benefit the stock market.

Public Confidence in the Numbers

The belief in the accuracy of the job numbers is mixed. Some commentators and political figures express stark criticism and disbelief regarding the reported job statistics, attributing them to political maneuvering. Meanwhile, others accept them at face value but interpret them as signs of poor economic management.

Online discussions indicate a significant trust gap between the public and the institutions reporting these numbers, with political affiliation appearing to influence perceptions significantly. This could lead to continued uncertainty and polarized opinions about the state of the economy as summer 2024 approaches.

This distrust is evident in a recent tweet from Joe Biden which drew heavy criticism in replies and quote tweets, a social media phenomenon known as getting “ratioed.” The President’s post had significantly fewer likes than comments, indicating a ratio and negative reception.

Wages are rising faster than prices, incomes are higher than before the pandemic, and unemployment has remained below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years.

We have more to do to lower costs for hardworking families, but we’re making real progress.

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) May 5, 2024

Forecast for Summer 2024

Given the prevailing negative sentiment and skepticism about the job numbers, the public mood going into the summer of 2024 could be cautious, if not pessimistic, unless there are significant and tangible improvements in job creation and economic indicators.

Voters will likely remain skeptical about Bidne’s economic policies and their effectiveness in addressing unemployment and job quality. As jobs and the economy continue to be a very high priority issues for Americans, sentiment on this front could tangibly impact voter decisions in the fall.

Joe Biden's plan to effectively ban coal power plants is a contentious issue for Americans. MIG Reports analysis shows voter opinions on this matter are largely influenced by their beliefs about energy production, energy costs, and the environment. Additionally, it seems many Americans remain unaware of the ramifications of Biden’s unilateral action, given international conflict dominating social media and news coverage.

Online discussions which favor Biden's plan frame it as a necessary step towards sustainability and combating climate change. Those who hold this view often highlight the benefits of green energy, such as solar and wind power, in terms of its environmental impact and potential cost savings. They advocate for continuing to develop renewable energy technologies and infrastructure. They also express optimism about the potential for these sources to replace traditional fossil fuels.

Many others oppose Biden's coal regulation plan, often citing concerns about its impact on the economy and energy costs. This group frequently points to the role of fossil fuels in supporting American energy independence, as well as the jobs and economic activity generated by the oil and gas industry. They express concerns about the potential for green energy technologies to drive up energy costs, often arguing for a more balanced approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources.

There is also a group expressing skepticism of the green energy movement, viewing it as a political agenda rather than a practical solution to energy and environmental challenges. They argue the push for green energy overlooks its environmental impact and the cost of producing and disposing of renewable energy technologies, such as solar panels and wind turbines.

Energy Production

There seems to be a divide in which some push for aggressive measures to tackle climate change. Others voice concerns about potential economic implications and energy costs. A considerable number of Americans are calling for the expansion of nuclear power plants, asserting they are the most feasible solution to meet the country's energy demands while reducing carbon emissions. Many are hopeful toward Jigar Shah, the director of the U.S. Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, highlighting the possibility of reactivating dormant nuclear power plants.

Simultaneously, there is vehement opposition to fracking due to its alleged environmental impact. Some voters criticize New York Governor Kathy Hochul for considering its use. Various people point out the irony of politicians celebrating natural parks while supporting fracking.

Despite this, there are voices of skepticism regarding the feasibility and environmental implications of renewable energy sources. Some claim renewable energy production is insufficient to meet the country's energy and fuel needs, arguing that nuclear power and natural gas are more reliable alternatives.

Nancy Pelosi recently appeared on MSNBC with Katy Tur, discussing Biden’s allegedly strong job growth numbers. Pelosi claimed Biden has created nine million jobs during his administration. In the exchange that followed, Tur asserted that job losses during Trump’s administration were due to COVID, rather than Trump’s policies.

Reactions to the interaction have split voters in an interesting way, with Republicans echoing Tur’s statement and Democrats siding with Pelosi. While reactions to the MSNBC exchange correspond with partisan divides, many Democratic voters are criticizing Tur and MSNBC for allegedly defending former President Trump.

This event suggests Democratic hatred for Trump may overcome ideological alignment with mainstream media outlets like MSNBC, which is widely viewed as left-leaning. Republicans point out that even a struggling economy and poor job prospects may not unify voters on contrasting narratives and political interpretations.

• Following the exchange between Pelosi and Tur, jobs sentiment toward Trump and Biden flipped, with Trump slightly surpassing Biden in approval.
• Sentiment toward MSNBC among all voters sits at 41%, with “propaganda,” “censorship,” and “fake news” among the top media-related discussion words.

Criticism of MSNBC and Katy Tur

Many voters across party lines are frustrated with MSNBC, especially Katy Tur. Democrats who agree with Nancy Pelosi’s accusation of Tur acting as a Trump apologist say Tur and the network promote a right-leaning bias. They appreciate Pelosi's criticism of Tur, and some have even called for Tur's replacement on MSNBC.

Conservative voters tend to assert Tur made a valid point about job losses during COVID, but still criticize MSNBC for its leftist bias. This group is more likely to discuss the general state of the economy and job market, with concerns about potential layoffs, increased unemployment, and concerns about inflation.

Following this contentious event, voters of all party affiliations express distrust and dissatisfaction with mainstream media, including MSNBC. A common criticism accuses the network of pushing narratives that align with certain political agendas.

Views of Nancy Pelosi

Interestingly, the exchange did not seem to negatively impact Nancy Pelosi’s approval. Many voters view Pelosi as a strong, assertive figure who challenges perceived bias in the media and unhesitatingly voices her opinions. Some Democrats thanked Speaker Pelosi for criticizing Katy Tur for defending Trump's job loss record.

However, many Republican voters are critical of Pelosi's comments, accusing her of undermining Trump's economic and jobs record. They argue Trump achieved significant job growth and that Pelosi is trying to manipulate the narrative to discredit him. These voters are mostly conservative and are generally opposed to Pelosi’s policies.

While partisan disagreement persists, there appears to be a consensus among both conservative and liberal voters that Pelosi is a skilled political operator. For conservatives, this manifests as critique of her as a master manipulator. For liberals, it is expressed as grudging respect for her ability to get things done.

• Despite Republican criticism, Nancy Pelosi’s nation approval increased slightly in the last few days, reaching 50% on April 30.

Recent viral reporting on Biden's proposed tax hikes has generated heated criticism and outrage online. Some say the proposed capital gains tax increase to 44.6% and an unrealized gains tax of 25% will predominantly affect the wealthy. Supporters insist the wealthy deserve to pay their “fair share.” Critics argue high earners already pay a significant portion of total taxes. Many also say the government should focus more on reducing its spending rather than increasing taxation.

Opposition to Unrealized Gains Tax

Discussions have ensued particularly about the proposed unrealized gains tax. This tax would be levied on any increase in value of an asset, even if it has not yet been sold. For example, if a person buys a stock for $100 and it increases in value to $150, they will have an unrealized gain of $50. Currently, Americans are not taxed on this gain until they sell the stock. Taxing unrealized gains is highly controversial, with opponents arguing it would be unfair and would cause financial hardships for people who have seen their assets increase in value but do not have the cash on hand to pay a tax on the gain.

The severe negative sentiment towards an unrealized gains tax is expressed in tweets like one from venture capitalist David Sacks. Many voters who align with this thinking say Biden’s proposed tax increase will destroy American taxpayers and business owners.

Let’s say you build a business from scratch and qualify for Biden’s new 25% unrealized gains tax. So you have to sell 25% of your business to pay the tax. But now you have to pay 44.6% cap gains + 13.3% CA on that. So you actually have to sell ~37%. Is this right?

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) April 25, 2024

Another argument against taxing unrealized gains suggests it’s unfair because it requires taxpayers to pay taxes on income they haven’t received. Voters talk about the idea of a tax on unrealized gains as outright theft.

Most Americans seem to believe that Biden’s tax hikes would lead to negative economic consequences. They say it would force reduced investment and economic growth, discouraging entrepreneurship, which would harm the economy.

• Following 2024 Tax Day, sentiment toward taxes started to decline, falling from 48% on April 14 to 46% on the 15th and 44% 10 days later.
• Americans are also increasingly negative on the economy, with sentiment sinking to 42% following news about Biden’s proposed tax plans.

Many voters also discuss their belief that taxes are being misused by the government. They complain that money gets spent on things they disagree with or is not being distributed fairly. Two recent issues Americans complain are a misuse of tax dollars are illegal immigrant support and foreign aid.

Voter Group Reactions

Wealthy Americans who would be directly impacted by the new tax policies are most likely voice negativity about Biden’s plan. They argue it would deter investment and prevent doing business. They say it’s effectively double taxation since capital gains are often derived from income that has already been taxed.

Some small business owners who have assets but are not extremely wealthy also disapprove of the proposal. They express concerns that, even if they don’t reach the affected tax backet, it could indirectly impact their businesses if wealthy consumers and investors cut back on spending and investment.

Republican voters of all economic classes are also generally opposed to the tax hike. They say higher taxes will hurt economic growth, regardless of who is personally affected. They also argue it would penalize success and discourage entrepreneurship.

Democratic voters are generally supportive of the tax increase. However, some moderate Democrats have expressed concern about the potential impact on business and economic growth.

Many people online also point out that Biden’s proposal, if implemented, would impose the highest capital gains tax rate in history. They also highlight the fact that Jimmy Carter, who also proposed increased capital gains taxes, suffered politically.

Biden is proposing a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest ever, previously set by Jimmy Carter.

Here's how that worked out for Jimmy Carter: pic.twitter.com/UFiiPl6Skb

— Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) April 24, 2024

Democrats and Lower Economic Classes are in Favor

Biden defenders are generally more supportive of the tax hike, viewing it as a way to address income inequality. They argue the wealthy should pay more taxes and be prevented from monopolizing wealth. They say the additional revenue could be used to fund programs that benefit lower income individuals, such as education and healthcare.

Progressive voters and lower income Americans often push back against online complaints about higher taxes, claiming many who are complaining are not wealthy enough to be affected. They argue the rich benefit disproportionately from economic growth and should therefore contribute more in taxes.

Reactions to Joe Biden's "Solar for All" program and sentiments about Earth Day, environmentalism, and Joe Biden reveal a mix of positive, negative, and skeptical sentiments.

Positive sentiments are primarily passive forms of support. Some appreciate Biden prioritizing environmental protection, understanding the importance of climate change actions, and supporting clean energy solutions. Many voters are clearly in favor of climate change initiatives and express relief and encouragement about the "Solar for All" program. They view it and similar programs as crucial steps towards safeguarding the environment for future generations, commending Joe Biden’s leadership in these matters. Mostly Democrats, this group seems to fall along political lines, further emphasizing the role of tribalism in the response to Biden's initiative.

Negative sentiments come from skeptics of climate change and critics of the policies being implemented. Some voters believe climate change is misrepresented to manipulate the public and gain power and money for politicians and corporations. They express frustration and disbelief at the perceived manipulation and voice opposition to the "Solar for All" program. They also criticize the focus on environmental protection, arguing there are more pressing issues to address, such as the debt crisis. They also doubt Biden's understanding of the problem and his ability to fix it.

Skeptical sentiments mainly come from those who believe in the impact of climate change but do not explicitly express support or opposition for specific policies or leaders. These voters may express concern about the environment and the need for action, but they do not necessarily align themselves with a particular political stance or leader.

Data suggests a large percentage of voters remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the initiative. They say, despite Biden’s claim, the initiative will not effectively tackle the enormity of the climate change problem. With an increase in conversation around this topic, data shows an immediate drop in sentiment. This suggests similar efforts from Biden’s administration to address climate issues in the future may cause a negative response as general distrust of government rises.

American tech positions have been seeing continual decrease in job security going back to January 2023 when sizeable layoffs began. According to Boundless research, more than 300,000 tech workers have lost their job, despite an increase in H1-B visas for tech positions increasing year-over-year and a dropping denial rate under the Biden administration.

Views of the Tech Labor Market Among Demographic Groups

Political affiliation appears to play a significant role in how people perceive and discuss tech layoffs. Some Americans, particularly those who lean Republican, criticize President Joe Biden's administration for perceived failures related to job numbers and immigration. They argue the job numbers do not add up and suggest the administration's immigration policies are a contributing factor.

Others, who align more with the Democratic party, dispute these claims. They argue that immigration has not negatively impacted the economy and job numbers.

Age also seems to play a role in the discussions, with younger users expressing more pessimism about the job market. These voters often share personal experiences of struggling to find employment despite numerous applications. They argue the positive job reports do not reflect the reality on the ground, suggesting a disconnect between the official data and actual experience of job seekers.

Economic class is another significant factor in the conversation. Voters from lower economic classes express frustration and distress about financial struggles despite positive job reports. This suggests a dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. They criticize officials like Janet Yellen for allegedly being out of touch with the economic realities facing ordinary Americans.

What Influences Sentiment on Jobs

Sentiment regarding tech and other sector layoffs can increase or decrease due to various factors. Negative news about the tech industry, such as reports of mass layoffs or declining profits, can increase negative sentiment. Conversely, positive news, such as reports of job growth or increasing profits, can decrease negative sentiment and increase positive sentiment.

Sentiment towards tech layoffs seems to become more negative when people feel reported job numbers do not reflect their personal experiences or when they perceive government officials as being out of touch with the reality of job seekers. Conversely, sentiment appears more positive when job growth is reported, particularly when it points to continued economic strength. However, skepticism remains among some who question the accuracy of these reports.

MIG Reports analysis of what Americans are saying online about their tax returns reveals mixed sentiment, however, general dissatisfaction. Many taxpayers express frustration and confusion over the complex tax filing process. Some suggest the system is designed to benefit the wealthy and corporations over average citizens. While there is appreciation for the various resources and services available to assist with tax preparation, smaller tax returns this year, amid overarching economic concerns, diminish the overall mood during tax season.

Sentiment seems to vary by political affiliation. Republicans tend to have a more positive view of the tax return process, citing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 as beneficial for lowering tax rates and simplifying the process. This Trump-era Act was the only noticed bright spot throughout the online discussions. Democrats, on the other hand, feel the tax cuts disproportionately favor the wealthy and corporations, leading to a more negative sentiment.

As Tax Day approached, online conversations increased to their highest point in the tax season, while sentiment dropped to its lowest point.

Demographics

Economic classes play a role in shaping sentiment. Lower and middle-class taxpayers often express frustration over the perceived unfairness of the tax system, feeling that they shoulder a disproportionate burden. Wealthier taxpayers, while also expressing some dissatisfaction with the complexity of the tax process, generally show a more positive sentiment due to the financial benefits they receive from tax cuts. Although, in general all Americans seem concerned about the economy and maintaining their standard of living.

Age also affects sentiment towards tax returns. Older taxpayers, who are often more acquainted with the tax filing process, show less frustration compared to younger taxpayers who may be navigating the process for the first time. The sentiment among different racial groups seems to be mixed, with no clear patterns emerging.

Geographically, there is less sway in discourse and sentiment; however, taxpayers in states with higher state and local taxes, such as California and New York, express more dissatisfaction due to caps on state and local tax deductions.

Overall, while there are resources available to help Americans with their tax returns, sentiment leans negative, with calls for a simpler, more equitable tax system. There is also an undercurrent of concern that tax dollars are not being used efficiently.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas recently admitted the border situation is a “crisis” and said sanctuary cities should remove criminal illegal immigrants. While discussion about the border and immigration is still extremely negative, MIG Reports data shows voter attention has turned to the economy in recent weeks.

As the House prepares to send articles of impeachment against Mayorkas, discussions about border security are negative, though lower in volume compared to last month.

• National sentiment regarding the border has steadied around 50% in the last week as discussion volume has fallen.

Those who are still vocal about border security regularly mention elected officials like Mayorkas and Biden, accusing them of enabling illegal immigration. Voters express a desire for stronger leadership, prioritizing national security and law enforcement over political considerations.

There are also repeated mentions of drug cartels, indicating a concern about the connection between illegal immigration and organized crime. Most people talking about this issue believe the government is not doing enough to combat drug trafficking at the border.

Sentiment Towards Secretary Mayorkas

Many voters believe Mayorkas has failed in his role as Secretary of Homeland Security and that his impeachment could be a step in the right direction. They say he has allowed an unprecedented number of illegal immigrants to enter the country, leading to the "worst border crisis in history."

Critics of Mayorkas say he should be held accountable for the administration's mishandling of the border crisis. Many voters are also calling out Senator Schumer for not setting a trial for Secretary Mayorkas, arguing he is violating 200 years of Senate precedent and constitutional duty. Some suggest that Senate Democrats, particularly Senator Schumer, fear a trial could negatively affect the 2024 elections.

There is some discussion of the consequences of Mayorkas' policies, describing the U.S. as turning into a "third world hell-hole." People say increasing crimes and costs from illegal immigrants is unacceptable. They cite specific examples, such as a Salvadoran MS-13 gang member charged with assaulting police and family members, who was reportedly released into the community despite a detainer request from ICE.

Supporters, however, argue holding an impeachment trial for Mayorkas is simply a political move by the GOP. They argue Republicans have consistently voted against border initiatives since Biden took office and are now trying to shift the blame onto Mayorkas and the Biden administration.

• Discussion about Mayorkas has increased in the last four days, but his approval has remained relatively steady.
• Those who speak out in support of Mayorkas tend to view his impeachment as a political tactic by Republicans.

Views About Biden’s Border Policy

Many people continue to criticize the Biden administration for failing to enforce strict border control measures. This sentiment is often accompanied by a call for the reinstatement of Trump's border policies, which are seen as more effective in curbing illegal immigration.

Some Biden supporters voice opposition to the idea of building a wall and criticize such measures as xenophobic and harmful. Mostly Democrats, this group often labels the rhetoric around border security as a political tactic used to appeal to a specific demographic. They argue those in favor of strict immigration policies stigmatize immigrants and undermine the country's values of inclusivity and freedom.

As other MIG Reports have shown, however, there’s an increasing number of Democrat voters who agree the situation at the border a crisis. Some are now saying border control should not be a federal issue but a state issue. They argue the states should have the autonomy to decide their own immigration policies, in line with the Constitution.

• In March border security was the top issues in conversations online about Joe Biden.
• A month later in April, border security dropped significantly, falling below the economy and the Israel-Hamas war.

Growing Democratic Voter Disapproval

Many Democratic Party voters, particularly those with more progressive leanings, have expressed disappointment and frustration regarding Biden's border policies. They argue Biden has not veered far enough from the hardline policies implemented by Trump. This group tends to criticize policies like Title 42, which enables the expulsion of asylum seekers due to public health concerns. They criticize Biden for not being inclusive enough.

Centrist Democrats are more likely to support Biden's approach to the border. They appreciate his efforts to undo some of the more controversial policies of the Trump era, such as the "Remain in Mexico" policy.

However, even among these voters, there is a level of concern about the surge in border crossings and the potential political fallout. They worry if the situation is not quickly addressed, it could harm the Democratic Party's prospects in the upcoming elections and beyond.