Presidential Head-to-Head: Donald Trump Versus Kamala Harris
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Key Takeaways
- The media and Democrats would like Americans to believe Kamala Harris has strong odds against Donald Trump in a general election, but MIG Reports data doesn’t agree.
- Donald Trump has strong support nationally, but especially in swing states where he leads Kamala Harris in both support and sentiment.
- Meanwhile, Harris faces internal Party disagreements and skepticism from parts of her base over the “undemocratic” way she gained the nomination.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
60,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
3 Days
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article
Following Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential election, media outlets and Democrats have been working hard to position VP Kamala Harris as a formidable challenger to Donald Trump for president. At this early stage in her campaign, many are unclear on how robust her support will be on election day. MIG Reports data on head-to-head comparisons of Trump versus Harris after the first few days of her campaign suggests it may be an uphill battle for Democrats, despite presumably successfully ousting their nominee.
- The day after Biden’s withdrawal, Kamala Harris mentions regarding the presidential election surpassed mentions of Trump 25,000 to 24,000, but subsequently dropped.
- Approval for Harris as the presidential candidate also initially surpassed trump 49% to 44%. But in the following days the gap narrowed to only two points as Trump gained and Harris dropped.
- The percentage of support for Harris versus Trump shows them both at 47% nationally, but Trump has a slight edge in swing states with 49% support to Harris’s 46%.
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Kamala Harris
The Youth Vote
Younger voters show a degree of skepticism toward Kamala’s nomination, expressing apprehensions about the transparency of the process. The adherence to procedural democratic norms is crucial for this group, and any deviation triggers calls for more open, participatory processes within the party.
Phrases like "party elites choosing," "delegate process," and "open convention" signify a pushback from segments of the Democratic base who feel their wishes were bypassed. These detractors worry anointing Harris without broader grassroots input may alienate certain voter groups, potentially impacting turnout and enthusiasm in the general election. These themes also seem to counter media claims that Harris's viral "brat summer" influence may not be completely genuine.
Some young progressives show enthusiasm for Harris's liberal stance and representation, marking her as a candidate who symbolizes progressivism and memes. However, the far left of this demographic has concerns that Harris will not push the policy boundaries as far as they desire.
Geography
In battleground and swing states, there is pointed concern about Harris’s ability to capture the critical moderate and Independent vote essential for the general election. Democratic sentiment from these critical regions suggests a mix of cautious acceptance and pragmatic support, recognizing the necessity of a strong candidate to counter Trump's influence.
In Democratic strongholds and among “chronically online” voters, there is a pronouncement of excitement for Kamala’s quirky appeal. This demographic also appreciates her diversity.
Swing states and red states especially criticize Harris on immigration issues and economic concerns. Many polls, and MIG Reports data, show Harris trailing Trump in important states like Pennsylvania where she faces a 46% to 48% deficit.
Key Issues for Harris
Intra-Party Disagreements
Some in the Democratic base focus on her past prosecutorial actions, saying she aligns too closely with the Establishment. Their disillusionment is compounded by the idea that she was “installed” by leaders rather than elected. This is a particular sore point for progressives who felt unfairness over Democratic leaders pushing Bernie Sanders out.
Black Lives Matter progressives have also expressed dissatisfaction, demanding an open primary to allow for public participation in the nomination process. They say Harris’s ascent to the top of the ticket sidesteps true democratic engagement.
Many bring up Harris's historical campaign performance, revisiting her 2020 presidential bid and noting she dropped out before any primary votes were cast. This fuels skepticism about her electability and support base.
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The Economy
There is deep frustration from most Americans about the possibility of Harris continuing Biden’s economic policies. People talk about jobs, high inflation, gas prices, and expensive groceries, describing their own economic struggles.
Critiques often link Harris directly to deepening economic woes, highlighting a belief that her policies will continue to exacerbate everyday financial burdens. Voters also emphasize concerns over rising national debt and deficit spending, which they associate with increased inflation rates and economic instability.
Border Security
The U.S. border is also a deep concern aggravating Harris’s negative sentiment. Voters discuss record illegal border crossings and increased economic strain with Harris as “border czar.” People attribute the border crisis to policy failures under her watch. Many on the right also highlight the fact that mainstream media outlets are now attempting to deny Harris’s role as border czar.
Harris’s past actions as a prosecutor and her handling of immigration issues are frequent focal points of dissatisfaction, painting her as ineffective and incompetent. There is also significant disdain for her actions regarding President Biden as people accuse her of covering up Biden’s declining health.
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Supporters and critics alike mention her decision not to attend Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to Congress. Most view it as aligning more with pro-Palestinian sentiments than with Israel.
Many comments accuse Harris of giving Hamas a “PR victory.” This perception worsened by her prioritizing meetings viewed as less significant, such as with a sorority group. At the same time, pro-Palestine progressives express dissatisfaction toward the Biden-Harris administration for giving too much support to Israel.
Generally, voters worry about Harris’s ability to manage other sensitive international security issues like the Ukraine-Russia war. People say she offers limited experience in foreign affairs, questioning capacity to handle global security challenges effectively.
Donald Trump
The Youth Vote
Young voters from 18-25 present an interesting demographic for Trump. Many display a profound disillusionment with conventional politics. While much of this demographic expresses disdain for Trump's policies and demeanor, they also seem to dislike Kamala.
Online conversation suggests skepticism toward Trump, with terms like “misogynist” and “racist” frequently mentioned in discussions about his actions and rhetoric. Harris, while facing critiques from the left on her prosecutorial past, resonates more positively with themes of inclusion, diversity, and progressive change.
Younger conservatives, a growing cohort, view Trump as a strong, non-conformist leader, with comments lauding his boldness and critique of the current administration's policies. Supporters in this age group emphasize Trump's promise to restore economic stability, pointing to lower inflation and job opportunities during his tenure.
There is also a noticeable trend among young liberals and Independents who question Trump’s image as a hostile figure. The sentiment "President Trump doesn’t think young people are stupid" surfaces, suggesting a disconnect in how leftists and the media portray young people.
Geography
Trump commands a significant following in rural and certain suburban areas, particularly in the South and the Midwest. Here, voters appreciate his economic policies and business acumen. Urban centers and coastal regions typically support Harris.
Areas with robust manufacturing or energy sectors tend to view Trump’s deregulations and economic policies more favorably. Urban regions heavily affected by tariff retaliations express stronger disapproval.
Key Issues for Trump
Economy and Inflation
A consistent theme favoring Trump centers on his administration keeping inflation low, implementing tax cuts, and maintaining a secure and prosperous economy. Many supporters tout the low inflation rates during his presidency, comparing them favorably to higher rates under the current administration.
Conversely, critics of Trump highlight issues such as the longer-term effects of his tax cuts. They argue cuts disproportionately favor the wealthy and increase the national deficit. Arguments against Trump often include supply chain and manufacturing issues during COVID.
Government Corruption
Many conversations express outrage and suspicion toward the federal agencies responsible for Trump's security. They are furious about the failure and neglect in protecting him during an attempted assassination.
People decry former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle as a symbol of broader systemic issues in government agencies, celebrating her resignation. The public's reaction emphasizes questions about the integrity and competency of federal agencies, with comments frequently accusing them of corruption and ineptitude.
Numerous conversations also speculate about conspiracy theories, proposing the assassination attempt was an "inside job" or part of a larger "deep state" maneuver against Trump. These theories are fueled by inconsistent or false statements made by government officials, reinforcing the perception of a cover-up or evasion.
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