Debunked by Data – Biden’s Economy
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Key Takeaways
- Analysis shows President Biden’s December call on the media to report on the economy “the right way,” drove economic storylines in the mainstream press.
- Trends show White House narratives planted in the press haven’t yet moved the electorate, though effects on the 2024 general election remain unclear.
- Despite White House efforts to get out in front of negative sentiment on the economy, voters show dissatisfaction with the economy writ large.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
50,000
Geographical Breakdown
National, Swing States
Time Period
30 Days
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
Joe Biden's call to the media on December 23, 2023, to "start reporting it the right way", drove increased media coverage, MIG reports show. However, new White House messaging in the press has failed to resonate across the electorate. An increase in reporting from traditional media precipitated an increase in online discussion; however, not all media consumers are not buying White House job-creation or increased-GDP narratives compared with their experience. MIG data currently indicates overall dissatisfaction with the economy, with voters focusing on high taxes (specifically property taxes), younger professionals being unable to save and invest, and a general dissatisfaction with government spending decisions.
Democrats, however, were more likely to side with Biden, indicating a partisan split over the issue.
Democrats
- Perceive the media's reporting on the economy as overly negative or insufficiently informative.
- Argue that the emphasis on inflation and supply chain issues overshadows the accomplishments of the Biden administration, such as labor market gains since the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out employment growth during the Trump administration, and GDP growth.
- Strong Economy/Labor Markets:
- Democrats are more likely to believe narratives about labor and GDP growth signaling a strong economy, citing declining unemployment rates and robust job growth.
Republicans
- Largely skeptical of Biden's economic policies and the overall state of the economy
- View Biden's direct address to the press as an attempt to control economic narratives and downplay inflation and supply chain disruptions.
- Argue that the media should hold the administration accountable rather than drive narratives with White House talking points.
- Strong Economy/Labor Markets:
- Tend to disbelieve labor market and GDP narratives, pointing to inflation and supply chain disruptions, and arguing job growth under the Biden Administration has simply been a recovery of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Independents
- Often lean towards pragmatism over partisanship and show mixed responses.
- Some echo Democrats' views, others align more with Republicans or express broader skepticism towards media narratives.
- Strong Economy/Labor Markets:
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- Independent voters appear split, with their beliefs indexing to their personal economic experiences and media they consume.
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Messaging Analysis
Top Messages Increasing Biden’s Support:
- Highlighting job growth
- Emphasizing rebounding GDP
- Pointing out stock market performance
- Underscoring infrastructure investments
- Promoting the president’s Build Back Better plan
- Increased support for middle class and low-income families
Top Messages Decreasing Biden’s Support:
- Emphasizing inflation
- Highlighting supply chain disruptions
- Focusing on labor shortages
- Discussing increased government spending
- Criticizing his handling of the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Perceived overspending
- Potential tax increases
Biden's call for the media to "report it the right way" and the press lining up to drive White House talking points further underscores the deep partisan divide in the perception of the president’s economic policies and voters’ sifting of their own direct experience. The influence of media narratives on these perceptions is significant, highlighting the need for balanced and accurate reporting. At the end of the day, voters will have to weigh personal economic outcomes against partisan narratives and will balance GDP and stock market growth against the quality of life they enjoy.
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Economic Issues
The current dominant theme emerging from the data is concern over taxes and the quality-of-life Americans enjoy for their hard-earned dollars. Discussion especially centers around property taxes and their impact on both individuals and businesses. Sentiment analysis shows frustration, particularly in higher-tax states like New York, Illinois, and California. This dissatisfaction is driving a shifting population and investment in states with lower tax rates, referred to as "winner" states, many in the Sun Belt, such as Tennessee, Texas, and Florida.
Age and stage of life appears to influence attitudes towards taxes. Younger respondents, particularly those just starting out in their careers, express concern about their ability to save and invest due to high tax rates. Older respondents, particularly those who are property owners, express dissatisfaction with high property taxes.
Regionally, the data shows a clear divide. People in states with high taxes are expressing greater dissatisfaction and are considering migrating to states with lower taxes. The trend is particularly pronounced in New York, where people express concerns about crime, high cost of living, and perceived political targeting of investors, in addition to high taxes.
Politically, there seems to be a divide along party lines. Republicans express satisfaction with tax cuts or rebates in their regions, while Democrats criticize spending decisions, such as National Guard deployments to the southern border, which they believe could be better invested in solving tax and insurance issues. Still, immigration may yet come to bear on the economy in squeezing rent and housing inventory. Housing inventory remains exceedingly tight and prices high, keeping younger buyers from home ownership.
Analysis shows general dissatisfaction with high taxes across different demographic groups, with more Americans examining their life opportunities and outcomes in the face of their tax burden. Dissatisfaction is reflected in shifting investment trends and migration patterns, which could have significant long-term impacts on regional economies and elections.
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