Discussion is heating up about the amount of taxpayer dollars being used to fund services and benefits for illegal immigrants. Headlines are emerging suggesting cities like Denver are cutting back on city employees to free up funds for immigrants. Federal funds are being diverted to support illegal immigrants with shelter, food, and cash.

These headlines are stirring up ire among American citizens who are already concerned about their own finances and the larger economy. Many people online express dissatisfaction with plans like the proposal to give $10,000 debit cards to illegals. More people are becoming vocal about their feelings that these initiatives are a misuse of tax dollars.

There are differing viewpoints which align with political affiliations, however, the issue is starting to supersede partisan lines. Generally, Republicans lean towards stricter immigration policies and criticize using tax dollars for illegal immigrants. Democrats tend to favor more lenient immigration policies and the provision of public services for migrants.

But as the Biden administration is forced to address the issue, there is growing bipartisan awareness of the impact on all Americans.

Public Opinion Is Shifting in Favor of Strong Borders

As the border issue reaches a fever pitch, public opinion grows more complex. It cannot be accurately summarized by party affiliation alone. Many variables, including personal experiences, geographic location, and demographic factors seem to be influencing voter perspectives on illegal immigration.

Overall, MIG data shows Americans’ desire to prioritize national interests, especially the safety and protection of citizens. Many argue that tax dollars should be used to care for American citizens before aiding illegal immigrants.

There is an increasing amount of support for building a wall along the southern border. Many people are mentioning a Monmouth University poll that indicated a majority of Americans now want a wall.

The border crisis continues to be the top issue for voters leading up to the election. MIG data suggests that public sentiment is shifting towards stricter border control.

Biggest Voter Issues

Governor Abbott’s Migrant Bussing

Many Texas voters approve of Governor Abbott's initiative to bus migrants to sanctuary cities. They view it as a way to lighten the burden on Texas and give sanctuary states what they asked for.

Texans are desperate to relieve the strain on resources and population overrun and believe that sanctuary cities should bear more responsibility. They also believe that this initiative is pushing the consequences of open-border policies into the spotlight, forcing a dialogue about immigration reform

Voters in all border states argue that the responsibility for immigration should be a national issue, rather than falling solely on border states like Texas.

Voters in Sanctuary Cities

Among Americans living in sanctuary cities, there are complaints that they are being targeted and burdened due to their policies. There is less discussion from residents of sanctuary cities, but those who voice public opinions tend to be critical of bussing migrants out of border states.

People in sanctuary cities raise concerns about the constitutionality of Abbott's actions. They question whether the Governor has the legal authority to dictate where immigrants can and cannot go.

They also worry about the economic implications of an influx of immigrants. They fear that it could lead to job losses for locals, wage suppression, and increased competition for limited resources.

There’s also talk of illegal immigrants overcrowding schools and healthcare systems and increasing crime rates. Some, however, are vocal in the opinion that sanctuary cities should welcome immigrants and provide them with the support they need to integrate into society.

Disapproval for Funding Illegal Immigrants

Most of the public commentary shows Americans are opposed to using tax dollars to fund services for illegal immigrants. They argue that it is unfair for tax-paying citizens to finance benefits for people not legally present in the country. This perspective often stems from a belief that illegal immigrants are taking advantage of the system, and the administration is encouraging it.

Americans say illegals are taking jobs from American workers, draining public resources, and contributing to crime rates. More voters also argue that tax dollars should be used to improve services for American citizens who are already struggling to get by.

There’s a growing sentiment that illegal immigrants should not be eligible for social services like healthcare and education, and some say they should not be allowed to work. There is frustration and anger around the perception that illegal immigrants are being favored over U.S. citizens.

Many express dissatisfaction with the current state of law enforcement, blaming Democrats for crime problems in their cities. They see this as an additional burden on taxpayers and businesses and call for a change in leadership. Many people also complain that Democrats have cut police budgets, exacerbating crime in places like San Francisco and New York.

A swell of news stories involving violent crimes by illegals is amplifying the frustration. Commenters refer to specific cases where illegal immigrants are accused or convicted of violent acts and, sometimes, repeatedly allowed back into the country. They express a sense of outrage and distress, accusing the government of wasting tax dollars on criminals.

The ire is often directed at Democratic politicians for supporting open border policies and Republicans for failing to act or oppose Democrats. And, while this can still be seen as a partisan issue, more Democrats and Independents are beginning to speak out about protecting America’s border.

Approval for Funding Illegal Immigrants

There is still a segment of voters – mostly Democrats – who support more funding for illegal immigrants. They see this crisis as a humanitarian issue. They point out that many illegal immigrants work in low-paying jobs and contribute to the economy through sales and income taxes. They also argue that denying services to illegal immigrants may lead to public health issues and increased poverty.

Some say religious organizations, particularly large ones, should pay taxes. Their reasoning is that this would increase revenue and reduce the burden on taxpayers. They argue that religious organizations should contribute the way businesses and individuals do.

This group also advocates for immigrants being allowed to work and pay taxes. They believe this would be more beneficial to the economy than the current situation.

Some Democrats argue that sanctuary cities provide a haven for undocumented immigrants. They believe migrants enhance the cultural diversity of the nation.

Those who approve of spending taxpayer money on illegals tend to view migrant bussing initiative as a form of political opportunism. They accuse Abbott of exacerbating a humanitarian crisis and hold him responsible for the distress and trauma experienced by both immigrants and first responders.

What Californians Are Saying About Newsom’s Governance

In light of recent efforts to initiate yet another recall vote, California governor Gavin Newsom is facing significant criticism. Backlash against Newsom’s policies is growing as California continues to hemorrhage residents.

Most of the negativity is centered around his handling of the economy, crime, and immigration. People also blame Newsom for various issues ranging from wildlife protection to the decline in the quality of life in California.

• In the last five days, Newsom’s support has decreased from 48%, reaching a low of 43%.
• This drop coincided with a large increase in discussion volume, suggesting as more people discuss him, he loses support.

How Californian’s Perceive Newsom’s Public Image

Critics of Newsom are often more right leaning, expressing frustration and dissatisfaction with his liberal policies. They frequently describe California as a "communist" state under his leadership. Republicans also say he aligns himself too closely with President Biden and Vice President Harris.

However, regardless of political affiliation, common perceptions of Newsom include:

• His attitude is smug and elitist.
• A tone-deaf leadership style leaves people feeling unheard.
• He is focused more on illegal immigrants than Californians.
• He prioritizes national political ambitions over Californians’ needs.
• Accusations that he treats constituents, particularly Latinos, as servants.

Criticism From Residents

Voters accuse him of having a failed agenda that is negatively impacting public safety and quality of life in the state. Many critics also express concern that Newsom might aspire to run for President, causing him to neglect California’s current needs.

Many Californians believe his policies have led to an increase in crime, homelessness, and drug addiction. These issues, people say, have significantly decreased quality of life. Critics believe his policies are causing the state to deteriorate as more people move away.

People mention specific projects like a train that doesn't go anywhere as examples of his failed agenda and wasteful spending. Some also highlight the fact that businesses are leaving California, which is increasing economic issues for the state.

Reasons People Leave California

Many reports highlight the fact that more than 700,000 people have moved away from California since 2020. This is bolstered by MIG analysis which reveals the most common reasons people say they moved.

1. Cost of Living
2. Taxes
3. Housing Crisis
4. Political Climate – oppressive leftism
5. Natural Disasters – wildfires, earthquakes, drought
6. COVID policies – mask and vaccine mandates
7. Business Regulations
8. Crime Rates
9. Changing Demographics
10. Few Job Opportunities – outside of major cities and industries

Losing Issues for Newsom

Economy

• Gavin Newsom’s current approval on the economy is 42%, with a 30-day average of 43%.
• His 30-day high was 50% and his low was 36%.

There is also significant criticism of Newsom's handling of the California economy. Many who signed the petition to recall Newsom cite his inability to address the state's economic situation effectively.

Many Californians also express dissatisfaction with the high taxes, pointing out that despite them, there is no perceivable improvement in public services or infrastructure. A very common complaint is Newsom’s wasting of tax dollars.

People say the high and rising cost of living, along with businesses being driven out of the state by regulations is crippling the economy.

Border Security

• Gavin Newsom’s current approval on the border is 46%, with a 30-day average of 45%.
• His 30-day high was 51% and his low was 37%.

Sentiment toward Newsom regarding the border and immigration is overwhelmingly negative. The main concerns revolve around a perception that California has an open border. Many people are discussing the real-world impact of illegal immigration on their daily lives.

Voters accuse Newsom of prioritizing the rights, money, and benefits of illegal immigrants over Californians. They also express frustration at Newsom's lack of action and seeming callousness about the immigration situation at the southern border. This is a special point of grievance for those who criticize California’s sanctuary state status.

Californians who are unhappy with the sanctuary laws in the state are saying that Newsom deserves to be recalled and they plan to vote for his removal. They also argue that too much money is being spent on illegal immigrants, which they view as both a border and economy issue

Public safety and immigration are also overlapping issues, with many people pointing to crimes committed by illegal aliens as unacceptable and far too frequent. Many reiterate Newsom’s prioritizing the rights of illegal immigrants and violent felons over the safety of Californians.

Crime

• Gavin Newsom’s current approval on crime is 46%, with a 30-day average of 43%.
• His 30-day high was 53% and his low was 27%.

Regarding crime as a whole, people highlight rising violent crime and retail theft. They discuss the increased and relentless instances of theft and car break-ins, especially in places like San Francisco. They also talk about the impact organized retail theft is having on both shopping and the overall economy.

There’s also a discussion about gun rights in the state and how they impact crime. Democrats call for stronger gun laws in hopes of reducing gun violence. More conservative voters are unhappy with the existing gun restrictions, arguing it makes protection of life and property more difficult amid rising criminal activity. This group also criticizes the cost of carry permits in the state, saying they're unconstitutional.

There is an emphasis on crimes committed by illegal aliens who, many say, would never have the chance to perpetrate crimes if they were not allowed in the country to begin with. Many also point out that technically, all illegal immigrants are criminals, breaking the law when they entered the country.

Winning Issues for Newsom

Climate Change

• Gavin Newsom’s current approval on crime is 48%, with a 30-day average of 45%.
• His 30-day high was 51% and his low was 25%.

Many Democrats and Independents praise Newsom’s commitment to climate action. They call for more robust and equitable climate initiatives like the ones he has promoted.

Supporters appreciate his stance on issues such as climate change and social equity. They express their intention to vote against a recall, suggesting that they believe he genuinely cares about the climate, despite disagreements over some of his policies. This same group also applauds his efforts to counter policies and rhetoric of Republicans.

Abortion

• Gavin Newsom’s current approval on crime is 52%, with a 30-day average of 47%.
• His 30-day high was 52% and his low was 38%.

A lot of people support Newsom's stance on abortion, viewing it as a necessary right for women. They disagree with the idea of a national abortion ban, and certainly don’t want to see one in California.

They argue that the right to an abortion is essential for women's health and autonomy and should be protected. This group praises Newsom for standing up for women's rights in the face of conservative opposition.

Newsom’s Possible Presidential Run

Rumors of a potential run for the presidency also factor into how Californians view their governor.

Democrat Support for Newsom

Some Democrats believe Newsom is doing a great job as governor. They appreciate his defense of President Biden and say they would support his policies on a national level. This group think Newsom demonstrates strong leadership, and they admire his advocacy for issues like homelessness and wildlife protection. It is likely supportive Democrats would view Newsom as a strong candidate and might support his potential presidential run.

Democrats’ approval for Newsom often includes healthcare, climate change, his leadership during COVID, and his handling of the wildfires. They also overwhelmingly support his progressive stance on abortion rights.

Democrat Disapproval for Newsom

There are some concerns about Newsom among a portion of Democrats. Especially in a potential presidential run. These Democrats tend to disagree with some of his policies and actions as governor – particularly regarding immigration and the homeless crisis.

More moderate Democrats view Newsom as too liberal or too tied to the problems of California to be a strong presidential candidate. There are also concerns about Newsom's failure on issues like child exploitation and prostitution, which some Democrats feel he has not addressed adequately.

Overall, voters including a segment of Democrats criticize Newsom on homelessness, cost of living, and crime. Many people see these issues as egregious failures and therefore might not support him for president.

There are also those who express skepticism about Newsom's support for President Biden, accusing him of ignoring Biden's clear cognitive decline and supporting a false narrative.

The recent wave of layoffs and bankruptcies in the mainstream media has captured the attention of many online discussions. It's not only the media industry that has been affected, but also the political landscape and the perception of journalism among the public.

Democrats

Democrat voters tend to frame these layoffs as a result of corporate greed, arguing that large media conglomerates are prioritizing profits over quality journalism. They often point to the decline of local journalism as a significant loss for communities, arguing that these outlets play a vital role in keeping local governments accountable. They also emphasize the importance of journalism for a functioning democracy and often point to corporate greed, the rise of big tech, and the decline of traditional advertising revenues as key factors behind the layoffs.

Republicans

Republicans, in contrast, often refer to these layoffs as a consequence for what they perceive as liberal bias in the media. They argue that journalism has lost its way, with some citing the rise of “activist journalism” as a contributing factor undermining public trust. There is also a narrative among Republicans that media companies have failed to adapt to the digital age.

Independents

Independents tend to fall somewhere in between, with some echoing the Democrats' concerns about corporate greed and others agreeing with Republicans that perceived bias is driving consumers away. Many independents also express concern about the rise of "clickbait" journalism and the impact this is having on the quality of news coverage. Independents express a range of views, often reflecting concerns about both the loss of local news coverage and perceived media bias. They tend to focus on the need for media companies to adapt to the changing media landscape and explore new business models.

By The Numbers

Local Journalism vs Establishment Protector

The comparison between activist journalism and local journalism is also a topic of discussion. Some people commend activist journalism for its role in highlighting societal issues and advocating for change. However, others believe it compromises journalistic objectivity and blurs the line between reporting and advocacy. Local journalism, on the other hand, is widely appreciated for its role in community-building and its focus on local issues, but its decline due to financial struggles is a source of concern.

The perception of journalists as maintaining the status quo or the protecting establishment media varies among voters. Some believe that mainstream media perpetuates existing power structures by gatekeeping platforms for established voices, while others see journalists as watchdogs who hold the powerful accountable.

The Future and AI

Recent events throughout the industry have led to emerging conversations about technology and further potential biases.

A controversy surrounding Google's Gemini AI has elicited a variety of opinions. Some view it as a reflection of Silicon Valley's "woke” culture and an attempt to rewrite history, while others see it as a symptom of broader issues in AI development, like bias in training data.

The rumored release of Elon Musk's “Unwoke” search engine has been met with mixed reactions. Some see it as a potential alternative to platforms they perceive as suppressing free speech. Others raise concerns about the potential for further polarization and misinformation.

The idea of subsidies for journalism to save the industry has support and opposition. Some argue that government funding is necessary to preserve a vital industry in the face of economic challenges. Others worry about potential conflicts of interest and the threat to journalistic independence if the industry becomes reliant on government funding.

Alongside border security, the economy and inflation are quickly becoming some of the most important issues to American voters in 2024. Many people are worried about the rising costs of daily life — from food prices to insurance rates, utility bills, and home prices. There's a strong sentiment of frustration, with people feeling "crushed" by the skyrocketing costs.

Many people are saying they’re forced to cut back on non-essential spending to afford basic necessities. Voters are growing more worried about rampant inflation making everyday expenses difficult to manage. They also voice concerns about the potential for war and its economic consequences.

Across the country, there is a sense of apprehension about the future. People are becoming worried about a looming recession or economic crash. They express anxiety about the potential impact on Americans’ retirement savings and long-term financial plans.

Housing is a Particular Sore Spot

The rising cost of housing and rent is a significant concern for voters across the political spectrum. Some on the left believe rent control is a solution, while people on the right more frequently advocate for the development of more housing.

There are many reasons Americans feel frustrated with their housing costs. They cite reasons like cost of rent, home purchase prices, property taxes, insurance costs, preferential treatment for illegal aliens, and low supply.

Property Taxes and Insurance

A common complaint is that fewer and fewer Americans can afford to buy a home. But for those who do own, rising costs of property taxes and insurance are unavoidable. Voters talk about how property taxes, which are often based on the assessed value of a property, are making homeownership prohibitively expensive.

There are discussions about the methods used to determine property values for tax and sale purposes. A lot of people feel these valuation methods are flawed, leading to inflated tax values and unfair taxation. Many also complain about the high percentage of property taxes, depending on the state they live in.

The frustration over property taxes seems especially vocalized in states like New Jersey and New York. There is blame and dissatisfaction with politicians for how they've handled various tax increases. Many Americans say these actions can easily influence their voting decisions.

Drastically rising homeowner’s and renter’s insurance costs are also a contentious point of frustration for Americans. This is usually mentioned along with high rents, rising utility costs, and insufficient income growth.

As an example, people in Florida discuss skyrocketing insurance rates, which are driving away buyers and causing home prices to fall for sellers. New buyers cannot enter the market with skyrocketing insurance costs or the inability to obtain coverage like flood insurance.

Rent and Market Prices

The impact of high housing costs on quality of life and financial stability is a recurring theme in online discussions. People discuss the challenges of saving and investing when housing costs are high — and many say they fear they’ll never be able to afford a home.

A dominant topic is concern about home prices continuing to rise, even as interest rates rise — especially in markets like San Diego, Florida, and Idaho. Americans talk about how high prices, interest rates, and utilities often cause housing to cost more than 50% of their income.

There’s a growing discussion about the fact that wage growth has not kept pace with housing costs. This is a widespread negative point of view for most Americans, regardless of political affiliation.

Future predictions about the housing market and home prices are a popular topic. Both experts and laypeople speculate about how the housing market could look in the near future. There are fears that prices could continue increasing, pushing more people out of the market. But the inverse fear also exists with a potential market crash, causing many who bought at current interest rates to lose their homes.

Illegal Immigration

Within frustrations about high taxes, there’s discussion about how tax revenue is spent by the government. Many people are complaining about taxpayer-funded programs for illegal aliens and more government workers. They argue that taxpayer money should be used to improve public services like education, law enforcement, and assistance for veterans.

There's significant negativity about the use of government resources to support immigrants with housing, food, phones, and services. Many people decry benefits given to illegal immigrants when so many American citizens are struggling to make ends meet. The perception by many people is that politicians prioritize illegal immigrants over their own constituents.

A particular sore point for many voters is the fact that citizens who pay taxes are forced to cover their own expenses along with those of people who do not pay taxes at all. There is a sentiment that low housing supply is only exacerbated by the influx of foreign nationals into the country. Many suggest restricting immigration rates could potentially lead to lower housing prices.

Overall Inflation Costs

The entire discussion about housing costs in the U.S. is ensconced withing larger worries about the overall economy and demoralizing inflation. In general, there’s frustration at perceived unfairness in the American economy.

Voters on both the left and the right point out an unfair distribution of the tax burden. Democrats tend to point out the rich as needing to pay more. Republicans lament the tax burden on middle class Americans.

Increasing food costs, gas prices, interest rates, costly travel and services, and insufficient wages are all common points of dissatisfaction. The cost of groceries alone on many Americans is making it harder for them to maintain their standard of living. Nearly everyone expresses their concern about how long this trend will continue.

Furthermore, there's worry that climate and energy policies could lead to further inflation. Some believe the climate agenda could spark new price hikes on food, adding to the financial struggles of many Americans.

Criticism of the Biden Administration

A significant portion of people attribute rising costs to certain political figures or administrations. Democrats tend to blame the Trump administration, and Republicans tend to blame Biden. Regardless of whose fault it is, most people agree on the need for more effective government action to control rising costs.

Most Americans agree that prices were better under the Trump administration. However, the reasons why cause disagreement along partisan lines. Liberals argue that inflation is a global issue, not just a problem in the U.S. They suggest the pandemic disrupted supply chains and labor markets worldwide, leading to increased prices.

Conservatives point out that inflation was relatively low during Trump’s administration, which happened to be right before the pandemic. They argue that pandemic spending started the ball rolling, but the Biden administration has severely worsened the situation.

• Inflation is in the top five topics people have discussed in the last 30 days regarding Joe Biden.
• Along with border security, many people say inflation is a top three issue in the upcoming 2024 election.

In general, Democrats tend to view Biden’s economy more positively than Republicans. However, negativity has been growing on both sides. This sentiment among Americans is at odds with how the media and the administration talks about the economy.

• Fewer and fewer people believe the media’s framing of America’s economic situation.
• Republicans tend to be more negative toward the economy in 2024.
• It is likely that the disparity between how the media discusses inflation and how American voters feel is convoluting opinions on the subject.

Messaging Analysis

The issues that are of most importance to younger voters in this presidential election are primarily focused on financial stability and fairness. There are concerns about high taxes, especially property taxes, which they feel are an unfair burden on them. Younger voters feel that the government is taking more than it should from hard-working people and they're seeking changes to this system.

There's also disappointment in the perceived corruption and cheating within the government, particularly when it comes to the issue of tax evasion by wealthy individuals. This sentiment is closely tied to a desire for greater transparency and accountability in politics. Some of the top issues include:

• Economic Policy: Many young voters are worried about economic inequality and the financial struggles faced by many Americans.
• Mental Health: There's a growing recognition among younger voters that mental health is a critical issue that deserves greater attention and resources.
• Education: Young voters are particularly concerned about the state of education in the United States.
• Health Care: Access to affordable, quality health care is a top concern for many younger voters.

Talking About

Approval

Economic Issues

Analysis reveals a wide variety of sentiments among young people towards economic and financial issues. A dominant theme is a concern about high property taxes, especially in states like New Jersey and New York. There is a sense of dissatisfaction among young homeowners who feel overburdened by what they perceive as excessive taxes. Some are advocating for the elimination of residential property taxes, arguing that homes are personal property and should not be subjected to such taxes.

Another issue of concern for younger voters is the perception of state-specific economic conditions. Some refer to "loser blue states" and "winner red states," indicating a polarization of views along political lines. In this context, the "loser" states are seen as having high taxes and unfavorable business conditions, while pushing young business owners and workers to consider moving to "winner" states where they believe their economic prospects would be better off.

There is also discontent about how tax money is spent. Some younger voters believe funds are misused or diverted to unworthy causes, leading to suggestions that they might stop paying taxes. This indicates a distrust in how government handles fiscal policy.

Some express anger about perceived unfairness in the tax system, specifically pointing to wealthy people or corporations that utilize loopholes to avoid paying high taxes. This sentiment might be tied to broader concerns about economic inequality.

On the topic of personal finance, there's a sense of urgency about changing the conventional financial wisdom. Young people are questioning traditional advice, such as going to school, getting a job, paying taxes, and investing in the stock market, suggesting they feel these paths may not lead to financial security in the current economy.

There is worry among younger people about the rising costs in areas like New York, with some linking it to high taxes, crime, and immigration. There is a shared feeling among some young people that these conditions are pushing out long-term residents.

In summary, the economic concerns of younger voters revolve around high property taxes, the misuse of tax revenue, disparities in the tax system, changes in personal financial management, and the high cost of living in certain regions. Their views often align with their political leanings, impacting their perception of different states' economic condition.

Swing States – Economic Issues

Opinions on economic issues differ sharply based on political bias. There are recurring themes like taxes, housing, homelessness, and business climate, which seem central to most demographics.

Many users, especially those who identify as supporters of former President Trump, express concerns about high taxes. They believe high taxes are punitive to successful businesses and individuals, particularly in states like New York and California. They argue that states with lower taxes, such as Florida and Texas, offer a better business environment.

Affordable housing is also a critical issue. Some younger voters accuse Trump of being racist for allegedly refusing to rent to black people in the past. Others lament the high cost of rent and the financial struggles associated with it, suggesting that this is a significant concern among many young voters.

Homelessness is another recurring theme, with users expressing empathy for the homeless. Some younger people believe the problem has worsened under current leadership, suggesting dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the issue.

The issue of job opportunities also features prominently. Some younger voters accuse politicians of insider trading, suggesting a belief that the political elite is corrupt and self-serving. This sentiment could indicate dissatisfaction with perceived inequality in the job market and the economy at large.

Swing States

Joe Biden's call to the media on December 23, 2023, to "start reporting it the right way", drove increased media coverage, MIG reports show. However, new White House messaging in the press has failed to resonate across the electorate. An increase in reporting from traditional media precipitated an increase in online discussion; however, not all media consumers are not buying White House job-creation or increased-GDP narratives compared with their experience. MIG data currently indicates overall dissatisfaction with the economy, with voters focusing on high taxes (specifically property taxes), younger professionals being unable to save and invest, and a general dissatisfaction with government spending decisions.

Democrats, however, were more likely to side with Biden, indicating a partisan split over the issue.

Democrats

• Perceive the media's reporting on the economy as overly negative or insufficiently informative.
• Argue that the emphasis on inflation and supply chain issues overshadows the accomplishments of the Biden administration, such as labor market gains since the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out employment growth during the Trump administration, and GDP growth.
• Strong Economy/Labor Markets:

• Democrats are more likely to believe narratives about labor and GDP growth signaling a strong economy, citing declining unemployment rates and robust job growth.

Republicans

• Largely skeptical of Biden's economic policies and the overall state of the economy
• View Biden's direct address to the press as an attempt to control economic narratives and downplay inflation and supply chain disruptions.
• Argue that the media should hold the administration accountable rather than drive narratives with White House talking points.
• Strong Economy/Labor Markets:

• Tend to disbelieve labor market and GDP narratives, pointing to inflation and supply chain disruptions, and arguing job growth under the Biden Administration has simply been a recovery of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Independents

• Often lean towards pragmatism over partisanship and show mixed responses.
• Some echo Democrats' views, others align more with Republicans or express broader skepticism towards media narratives.
• Strong Economy/Labor Markets:

• Independent voters appear split, with their beliefs indexing to their personal economic experiences and media they consume.

Messaging Analysis

Top Messages Increasing Biden’s Support:

• Highlighting job growth
• Emphasizing rebounding GDP
• Pointing out stock market performance
• Underscoring infrastructure investments
• Promoting the president’s Build Back Better plan
• Increased support for middle class and low-income families

Top Messages Decreasing Biden’s Support:

• Emphasizing inflation
• Highlighting supply chain disruptions
  
• Focusing on labor shortages
• Discussing increased government spending
• Criticizing his handling of the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic
• Perceived overspending
• Potential tax increases

Biden's call for the media to "report it the right way" and the press lining up to drive White House talking points further underscores the deep partisan divide in the perception of the president’s economic policies and voters’ sifting of their own direct experience. The influence of media narratives on these perceptions is significant, highlighting the need for balanced and accurate reporting. At the end of the day, voters will have to weigh personal economic outcomes against partisan narratives and will balance GDP and stock market growth against the quality of life they enjoy.

Economic Issues

The current dominant theme emerging from the data is concern over taxes and the quality-of-life Americans enjoy for their hard-earned dollars. Discussion especially centers around property taxes and their impact on both individuals and businesses. Sentiment analysis shows frustration, particularly in higher-tax states like New York, Illinois, and California. This dissatisfaction is driving a shifting population and investment in states with lower tax rates, referred to as "winner" states, many in the Sun Belt, such as Tennessee, Texas, and Florida.

Age and stage of life appears to influence attitudes towards taxes. Younger respondents, particularly those just starting out in their careers, express concern about their ability to save and invest due to high tax rates. Older respondents, particularly those who are property owners, express dissatisfaction with high property taxes.

Regionally, the data shows a clear divide. People in states with high taxes are expressing greater dissatisfaction and are considering migrating to states with lower taxes. The trend is particularly pronounced in New York, where people express concerns about crime, high cost of living, and perceived political targeting of investors, in addition to high taxes.

Politically, there seems to be a divide along party lines. Republicans express satisfaction with tax cuts or rebates in their regions, while Democrats criticize spending decisions, such as National Guard deployments to the southern border, which they believe could be better invested in solving tax and insurance issues. Still, immigration may yet come to bear on the economy in squeezing rent and housing inventory. Housing inventory remains exceedingly tight and prices high, keeping younger buyers from home ownership.  

Analysis shows general dissatisfaction with high taxes across different demographic groups, with more Americans examining their life opportunities and outcomes in the face of their tax burden. Dissatisfaction is reflected in shifting investment trends and migration patterns, which could have significant long-term impacts on regional economies and elections.

The recent $355 million fraud ruling against former President Donald Trump in New York City is driving new questions about the U.S. justice system being weaponized against political opponents. Democrat Judge Arthur Engoron’s ruling in a case filed by New York’s democratic Attorney General Letitia James, has sparked controversy, deepening existing divisions between Republicans and Democrats, online trend analysis and sentiment tracking shows.

The controversy is a lightning rod, with Republicans seeing the unprecedented $355 million fine as a biased attack on a political challenger during an election year.

A Deutsche Bank executive testified in Trump’s defense against the charges, saying the bank, and Trump, followed the bank’s rules in valuing assets at the center of the fraud trial. Democrats are framing the trial as holding Trump accountable for his financial dealings, saying no one is above the law. Meanwhile, the former president leads Biden in both national and key swing state polls. The repercussions of the ruling are rippling through media and policy debates, showing deeply entrenched partisan sentiments, with some wondering if courts are now a tool for punishing political opponents. 

Republican Response

Republicans are criticizing the NYC fraud ruling against Trump as an extension of power by democrats. The ruling has also underscored Republicans’ commitment to the former president. Some Republicans have drawn comparisons between Trump's alleged financial misdeeds and the corruption scandals plaguing the White House. Their claims have initiated a broader conversation about political accountability and the rule of law and what it means to wield power in America.

Republicans are concerned the Biden White House is corrupt, perceiving that government institutions, including the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI, have been weaponized against political rivals. Biden's alleged involvement in the theft of classified documents during his tenure as a senator and vice president has added to the fire. Some Republicans have gone so far as to draw parallels to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arresting rivals, framing the White House within a broader narrative of political persecution.

Trends show Republicans see the fraud ruling against Trump as indicative of a larger pattern of bias and corruption, suggesting a political agenda behind the legal proceedings. In scrutinizing the legal process, they have been able to underscore their belief in the need for fairness and impartiality. Republicans have maintained focus on the integrity of the legal proceedings in discourse.

Emphasizing Trump's accomplishments, particularly in areas like border security and economic stability, Republicans have also been aiming to highlight Trump’s accomplishments against the Biden administration's handling of key issues, including persistent inflation, crime, open borders, and the national debt having gone parabolic. Critics of the White House have been able to set Trump’s accomplishments and the legal attacks they say are political persecution by democrats against the backdrop of White House policy failures.

Democrat Response

On the Democratic side, the NYC fraud ruling against Trump is wielded as a weapon to disqualify the former president. Democrats, in turn, see media coverage of the Biden administration missing the White House’s student loan forgiveness efforts and success in maintaining its border policy. They insinuate a lack of accountability or consequences for Trump, the fraud trial being one of the former president’s many legal cases. They also emphasize potential misuse of classified documents and even allege that Trump may have sold such documents to foreign leaders.

Democrats are responding in kind to the recent DOJ report claiming Biden was unfit to stand trial with concerns about Trump's potential misuse of classified information to pay legal fees and questioning the former president’s mental capacity.

They also question the legitimacy of Republican criticisms, especially regarding Biden's handling of the deficit, contrasting it with claims about Trump's tax cuts benefiting billionaires and contributing to the growing deficit. 

Economic Fallout

Beyond the political realm, the ruling against Trump may cause economic havoc, particularly in New York’s business and investment climate landscape. Some see fallout on the horizon: will the targeting of political adversaries accelerate an exodus of investors from New York? Analysts are wary the prospect of political bias in legal proceedings may discourage businesses from continued investment in states with high taxes, such as New York, Illinois, and California

Some Republicans express apprehension about the broader economic implications, suggesting that the ruling could have negative consequences for state budgets, public services, and infrastructure. If businesses and investors feel vulnerable to political lawfare, they may choose to relocate or reduce their activities, leading to a decrease in tax revenues for the affected states.

On the other hand, Democrats are countering these claims by emphasizing the moral implications of the ruling. They argue that the economic concerns raised by Republicans are a diversion from Trump's financial dealings. Democrats contend that holding individuals accountable for financial misconduct is crucial for ensuring a fair and just economic system.

Conclusion

The NYC fraud ruling against Trump has become a lightning rod for political division, with Republicans and Democrats interpreting the decision along partisan lines. The controversy has exposed live questions as to whether the rule of law is on the line, and whether the justice system is a tool to punish political adversaries. The fallout contributes to a widening gap between the two political camps. As debate unfolds, the impact of this ruling on the political landscape and the 2024 election remains to be seen. Even so, the controversy has exposed massive fissures in perception of American courts as upholding equality before the law.

Recent online discussions reflect a general dissatisfaction and frustration with the current economic situation, particularly around rising prices. There is a clear demand for more effective communication from the government and corporations about measures to manage inflation and stabilize prices. The online discussions provide a rich insight into the public sentiment and concerns regarding the current economic situation, particularly focusing on inflation and price changes. A few key themes emerge from these discussions:

Frustration over Rising Prices

Many online users express dissatisfaction with the continued increase in the prices of goods and services, with specific mention of gas prices and the subsequent impact on other sectors such as fast food and retail.

Lack of Trust in Corporations

There is significant sentiment expressing distrust towards corporations like Walmart and McDonald's, with users questioning why prices have not dropped now that gas prices have been lower for over a year.

Concern Over Real Estate Market

Concerns over the stability of the real estate market, particularly in high-value areas, are evident. Users are worried about the potential impact of environmental factors (like climate change) on property values and safety.

Uncertainty and Anxiety

There is a general sense of uncertainty and anxiety about the future, particularly concerning economic stability and the potential for increased inflation.

Skepticism Towards Biden and Media

There is skepticism towards the claims made by Biden and the media regarding the state of inflation. Users are eager for tangible evidence of improvement.

Messaging

Increasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:

1. Tangible evidence of price decreases, especially in essential goods and services.
2. Positive news about economic recovery and job growth.
3. Clear communication from the government about measures taken to control inflation.

Decreasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:

1. Continued increase in prices of goods and services.
2. Negative news about the economy or job market.
3. Lack of clear communication or perceived inaction from the government on inflation.

Talking About - Economic Issues & Inflation

Sentiment - Economic Issues & Inflation

American voters have an unhappy view about the job market and general state of the economy. Conversations online boil down to two indicators:

1. Distrust in the economic reporting
2. How the government spends money

Americans remain skeptical about the job reports, with claims that half of the jobs are "fake" and the other half being government jobs. They also express concern about the lack of new jobs for native-born Americans since 2018. This sentiment could be indicative of wider concerns about unemployment, underemployment, and the overall health of the job market.

Online conversations support this a pattern of the top discussions:

1. Concerns about job security and employment prospects, especially for native-born Americans
2. Doubts about the accuracy and reliability of government-provided statistics
3. Belief in the recovery and stabilization of the labor market
4. General interest in economic matters, with specific focus on employment rates and the health of the job market
5. The broader context of political discourse, with jobs and the economy being key issues in political campaigns and policy-making

Bipartisan Disapproval

Democrats' comments seem to focus more on dissatisfaction with the current tax system, advocating for reform and suggesting that wealthy individuals and large corporations are not paying their fair share. They also express concerns about how tax money is being spent, particularly with regard to funding wars.

Republicans' comments reveal a similar dissatisfaction with the tax system, but from a different angle. They mention the burden of taxes on the middle class and business owners, and they express frustration with how tax money is spent. They also seem to be against high taxes and are more likely to suggest tax cuts or reforms that reduce taxes.

Independents' comments are a mix of the above. They express frustration with the complexity of the tax system, the perceived unfairness of the distribution of tax burdens, and the misuse of tax money. They also discuss the impact of taxes on various groups, including the homeless and the self-employed. Some Independents seem open to both tax hikes for the wealthy and tax cuts for middle-income earners and businesses.

Media Narrative Support

Online conversations appear to be sustained by assistance from traditional approaches; online discussions peaked on Jan 10, Jan 18, Jan 25, Feb.

• Jan 10: several articles about Biden adding 14 million jobs
• Jan 18: Biden tweets about adding 14 million jobs
• Jan 25: several articles and Nancy Pelosi tweet about adding 14 million jobs
• Feb 1: jobs report bolstered by traditional media

Talking About - Jobs, Economic Issues (Joe Biden)

Approval - Jobs, Economic Issues (Joe Biden)