Democrats and liberals push narratives and Biden administration talking points claiming a successful and healthy economy with strong jobs performance. But working Americans who feel the effects of inflation and layoffs experience a different reality. While trying to remain hopeful for the future, many voters also voice longing for the economy and markets prior to COVID.

MIG Reports data shows emerging discussions about layoffs and firings with sentiment driven by ongoing political and economic conditions in Biden’s economy. This dialogue appears to be concentrated around several themes:

• The U.S. economy under Biden versus Trump
• Unemployment rates
• Inflation
• Legislation around job creation and layoffs

What Americans Are Saying

America’s economic performance frequently dominates voter conversations. People compare the achievements of Presidents Biden and Trump on the economy. There are many references to record-low unemployment rates and the two presidents’ respective economic policies, especially during and after COVID.

The COVID era brought extreme volatility to employment statistics, which continues to influence public sentiment. For example, there is frequent mention of the record high unemployment during Trump's term due to lockdowns. People also talk about how economic recovery has gone under Biden—specifically low unemployment rates.

Sentiment Trends

Attitudes about jobs and layoffs show a strong partisan divide. Biden supporters emphasize the reported low unemployment rates, stabilized inflation, significant investments in infrastructure, and legislative successes such as the CHIPS Act and lowered insulin prices.

Trump supporters highlight the unparalleled economic growth during his tenure prior to COVID, citing low taxes, high stock market performance, and strong GDP growth. Both sides seem to view the economy as much better during their preferred candidate’s presidency.

This political polarization is underscored by mutual accusations of economic mismanagement. Each side attributes positive or negative outcomes selectively to their favored administration.

Demographic Patterns

Discussions about layoffs and unemployment rates cut across various groups, but certain patterns emerge. Minorities, particularly African American and Hispanic communities, are noted for achieving historically low unemployment rates under both administrations. This serves as a focal point in debates about the effectiveness of each administration’s economic policies.

Industry Trends

Many discussions about jobs refer specifically to the manufacturing and energy sectors. This suggests wider concerns about job security in traditional blue-collar jobs. Voter focus on these industries confirms the importance of political platforms that heavily emphasize revitalizing American manufacturing. Workers want to ensure energy independence, which is touted as critical for job creation and economic stability.

Geographical Conversations

States like Mississippi, Kansas, and North Dakota come up frequently in job discussions. Reports cite Mississippi's record-low unemployment alongside the lowest labor force participation rate. This suggests a nuanced economic landscape where job growth does not necessarily equate to broader economic health.

Kansas shows slight changes in employment metrics, maintaining a middle ground in job growth across states. North Dakota’s energy production and high GDP per capita also get attention, highlighting its robust economic performance.

WARN Data

MIG Reports analysis of data from the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act revealed some interesting patterns. WARN notices are filed by employers announcing mass layoffs or plant closures. The dataset for 2024 year-to-date shows 2,247 layoff notices which affected 183,454 employees. That equates to an average of 82 workers per company layoff notice.

Some additional layoff trends include:

There is a significant spike of WARN notice activity in January of 2024, indicating a high number of layoffs planned at the beginning of the year. The number of WARN notices fluctuates across different months with noticeable peaks and troughs.

California has the highest number of WARN notices by a significant margin. Other states with a notable number of WARN notices include Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois.