With recent news that Trump sent vetting materials to several VP candidates, discussions have grown about potential VP picks for the Trump ticket. The top contenders mostly consist of expected names—largely those who have been considered among Republicans for months.

The Trump campaign has reportedly sent vice-presidential vetting paperwork to seven candidates, including Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, Tim Scott, Byron Donalds, Elise Stefanik, and Ben Carson. The MIG Reports exclusive VP tracker shows live support and approval analysis which recently suggest:

• Voter reactions show different levels of popularity and approval toward the various choices.
• While Vivek Ramaswamy is often mentioned as an unlikely choice, he remains popular among voters with a 30-day average of nearly 20%.
• Byron Donalds takes second place in voter popularity with a 30-day average of 8% support. He also has strong approval numbers and is among the rumored top choices.

What Republicans Are Saying About the Top Picks

Voters are reacting positively to news of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance being in the running. Some endorsed Vance, calling him an America-First choice. They believe he aligns with Trump's agenda and would be acceptable to most. On the other hand, several criticized him primarily for his initial dislike towards Trump and his variable political positions.

Tim Scott and Marco Rubio received mixed reactions. While some voters consider them to be MAGA choices, others label them as RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) and doubt their allegiance to the Trump administration. Some even expressed absolute disapproval of Rubio being considered for vice presidency.

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is receiving relatively less attention. However, some say if Trump picks Burgum as his VP, it could indirectly give Bill Gates significant influence due to their close friendship. This generates disapproval since Gates is unpopular among many conservatives.

A recurring concern for many conservatives and MAGA voters is the prospect of having a RINO as Trump’s VP. They fear establishment candidates will not uphold true conservative values. Nikki Haley, although not officially in the running according to recent news, is repeatedly referenced as among these unfavorable RINO choices. Many say she would be even worse than Mike Pence in the eyes of MAGA supporters.

Byron Donalds

Many voters think Byron Donalds is a popular choice. However, he has sparked some strong backlash for his controversial comments on black America during the Jim Crow Era.

A Florida Congressman, Byron Donalds brings a conservative perspective and is one of the two African American Republicans in the House. However, some worry about his eligibility since he and Trump both reside in Florida. Donalds’ comments about “the Black family” during Jim Crow have been controversial and may alienate moderate voters. Republicans might find his admission and discussion of systemic racism to be problematic.

• Byron Donalds enjoys around 8% support, according to MIG Reports data. His approval is also strong, hovering near 50% and soaring above it at times in the last 30 days.

Marco Rubio

Views of Marco Rubio are divided, with some criticizing his allegiance to the Constitution and suggesting his ambition for power could be damaging. Yet, supporters think his background could attract Independent and moderate voters.

A junior senator from Florida, Rubio offers name recognition and experience from his 2016 presidential run. Republicans may appreciate his commitment to conservative principles on issues like tax and immigration. Moderates might appreciate his engagement on issues like climate change and higher education reform. Constitutional eligibility questions are a concern since both Rubio and Trump are residents of Florida.

• Rubio’s approval tends to vary widely, with dips down close to 30% and highs around 50%.

J.D. Vance

Despite his support with America-First voters, some people criticize Vance for his inconsistent loyalty towards Trump. Others are concerned that if Vance becomes VP, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine might appoint a RINO as his replacement.

Vance is the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and brings an empathetic voice for the struggling working-class. His appeal is tested among Republicans, while his criticisms of Trump may resonate with moderates. Vance's lack of political experience may, however, be a hindrance.

• Vance has gained around 50% approval in the last few days, recovering from a dip to the low 40% range at the start of June.

Tim Scott

Tim Scott's vote against federal protections for contraception and his association with MAGA has earned him criticism from more moderate voters. Yet, some believe he could appeal to Independents better than some of the strong MAGA choices.

South Carolina Senator Scott is the only African American Republican in the Senate and is known for his work on criminal justice reform. This may appeal to moderate voters, although his endorsement of police reform could lead to push back from some conservatives.

• Scott struggled with approval at the start of June, but as news of his consideration increased, his approval increased back to nearly 50%.

Doug Burgum

A relative unknown as North Dakota's governor, some voters think Burgum would allow Trump to keep the spotlight on himself. His name in the running has not elicited any significantly negative reactions, though his VP credentials don't seem to stir up much enthusiasm either.

Burgum is a strong economic conservative with private sector experience as the former CEO of a software company. Republicans might appreciate his fiscally conservative approach and his governing experience, while moderates may be drawn to his reputation as a pragmatic rather than ideological leader.

• Burgum’s approval remains steadily around 50%, with a slight bump in recent days.

Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik did not generate as significant a volume of comments compared to others in contention. She also does not draw as strong of opposition as some other candidates, but she also doesn’t seem to have much momentum behind her.

A young Congresswoman from New York, Stefanik gained fame during the Trump impeachments. Her steadfast support for Trump may win her points with Republicans, but her combative style and strong alignment with Trump might turn off moderate voters.

• Stefanik’s approval can vary widely, fluctuating between 30-50% in the last 30 days.

Ben Carson

While some suggest Carson’s age might be a hindrance to a long-term role, many see him as a good candidate due to his loyalty to Trump and alignment with the America-First movement. Many also view his calm demeanor and intelligence as strengths.

Ben Carson, the former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has a strong association with the Trump administration and a deep-rooted connection with conservative Christian voters. His quiet demeanor may appeal to those seeking a lower profile candidate but his lack of political experience beyond the HUD role may be a negative for those seeking a seasoned political candidate.

• Carson typically sees strong approval percentages, staying largely above 50% in the last 30 days with a high of 59%.

Passing Mention Contenders

There is also speculation about a few dark horse candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who some think could take up the America-First mantle. However, Gabbard's liberal background could deter many conservatives.

Tom Cotton is another notable contender. His right-leaning stances align with more conservative elements of the Republican base, but his alleged refusal to condemn threats of violence, puts him at odds with moderates who prioritize law and order. His attempts to secure a place on Trump's shortlist may also be viewed unfavorably by more traditionalist Republicans who disapprove of a perceived MAGA-centric approach.

This diverse field highlights the Trump campaign's attempt to appeal to various factions within the Republican Party and beyond, balancing ideological conservatives with potential candidates with moderate appeal. Given the early stage, it is likely the list may well evolve. Be sure to check in the MIG Reports exclusive VP tracker as the presidential campaign continues.

Based on AI-curated data and MIG Reports research, a clear front runner has yet to emerge for the Republican VP pick. Given the sentiments discussed in this report and developments in the political landscape, however, popularity may be gathering around Ben Carson, J.D. Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy for the VP position.

Recently, a group of 57 scientists from around the world who used United Nations-approved methods concluded a study which determined global warming is increasing. However, the study was only able to point to an increased use of fossil fuels across the globe. The collection of authors was formed to provide annual scientific updates every seven to eight years for major U.N. scientific assessments.

MIG Reports performed a comparative analysis of public discussion and sentiment about climate change and reactions to the U.N. study.

Discussion Trends

Analysis compares views of climate change in general and reactions to the recent U.N. study. When discussing climate change overall, analysis shows:

• Sentiment: Americans are polarized, with a consensus of urgency around climate change curbed by significant skepticism.
• Consensus on Urgency: Those who view climate change as urgent warn of extreme temperatures and rising CO2 levels. They call for renewable energy investment, fossil fuel reduction, and recognition of environmental and economic benefits. There is also an emphasis on the impact of climate change on health and agriculture.
• Expert Input: Contributions from scientists, medical professionals, and environmental experts call for immediate action and policy measures (e.g., executive orders, clean energy endorsements).
• Skepticism: There are also recurring doubts about the ability of modern science to predict weather, framing climate change as a natural occurrence. This group cites historical climate cycles and claims there is manipulation and exaggeration in studies motivated by control and financial gain. These conversations reveal severe skepticism about accelerating global warming and highlight contradictory data.
• Engagement Level: Americans are very engaged with discussions about climate change related to personal lifestyle, economic implications, and political ideologies.
• Conclusion: Data suggests there is a deep divide among Americans on the topic of climate change. There is strong advocacy on one side and skepticism on the other, as some see climate change as a geopolitical or financial tool.

Analysis of discourse reacting to the recent U.N. study indicates shows:

• Sentiment: American attitudes toward the study are mixed, similarly to overall views of climate change.
• Awareness and Concern: Many express concerns about global warming, referencing environmental changes (e.g., floral blooms in Antarctica and deforestation) and public health impacts. Many strongly advocate for climate action, clean energy, and celebrating World Environment Day.
• Skepticism: However, skeptics attribute changes in the study to natural cycles, critical theory, or population control. There is some doubt around human-made CO2 as a major factor in global warming. This group accuses scientists of using climate change to gain status or money, claiming much of their conclusions are fearmongering.
• Engagement Level: There’s significant engagement about the U.N. study, which includes confrontations and personal attacks.
• Branching Topics: Conversations about the study also tend to include discussions about personal lifestyle choices, economic implications, and political ideologies related to climate change in general.
• Conclusion: Data suggests Americans are polarized, despite the scientific study, emphasizing the need for clear and reliable information.

Disparity Between Perspectives and Sentiments

Conversations about climate change broadly and the U.N. study also show some disparity:

Level of Consensus

Overall, there are mixed opinions about climate change. There are both significant concerns and strong skepticism, highlighting a polarized public view.

Public consensus on the recent study shows a sense of urgency toward climate change, but there is also substantial skepticism about its causes and severity.

Focus on Advocacy vs. Skepticism

The subject of climate change sees a balanced focus on advocacy for climate action and skepticism about the science and motives behind climate change claims.

Regarding the study, there is a stronger emphasis on urgency and a need for immediate action. There is some skepticism and mistrust of the scientific community and perceived motives.

Nature of Skepticism

Skepticism towards climate change in general includes doubts about human impact, claims of natural cycles, and accusations of fearmongering for control or monetary gain.

Skepticism toward the U.N. study focuses on scientists' predictive abilities, historical climate cycles, and manipulation for control or monetary gain, with added doubt about accelerating global warming.

Engagement and Confrontation

Both topics show high engagement levels, with significant confrontations and personal attacks, reflecting the deeply polarized nature of the discourse.

Branching Discussions

Both topics extend discussions beyond climate issues to personal lifestyle choices, economic implications, and political ideologies.

In summary, both general and more specific discussions about climate change reflect a highly engaged and polarized discourse online. There is a clear divide between advocacy for urgent action and skepticism about the causes, severity, and motivations behind climate change narratives. The need for reliable, understandable information is evident in both discussions.

The start of June kicked off liberal celebrations for “Pride” month, which has a history of contentious reception from Americans. Many feel Pride month is over-politicized, accusing political ideologies and agendas of using it for virtue signaling and pandering. There are also many who question the need for such a drawn-out recognition of LGBT issues, suggesting these groups already have the same rights as everyone else.

MIG Reports conducted an in-depth look at America’s reaction to Pride month using AI to curate and analyze public discussion. The broad delineation of opinions tends to align with political and social ideologies. Liberals and progressives fully support Pride and LGBT issues, with a few caveats.

Conservatives and Christians are more likely to object to the permeation of activist gender and sexual ideologies into American culture. They tend to argue the imposition of Pride month undermines freedom of thought and belief, creating an environment where only one perspective is considered acceptable.

Many others, including some in the LGBT community are voicing concerns about the perceived sexualization and increased vulgarity of Pride events. They say the exhibitionist aspects detract from the original purpose of Pride, which was to advocate for equal rights for gays and lesbians.

• Most Americans seem to agree that gays and lesbians have been fully accepted into modern society, arguing objections are ideological.
• With the start of June, online discussion of LGBT topics significantly increased, as did public sentiment.
• Sentiment towards transgender ideology, however, dipped slightly at the end of May and feelings around ideologies remained in the low 40% range.

Key Discussions

There are a range of conversations related to Pride month and LGBT issues online. Many are either fully supportive or severely negative. Some of the recurring themes include:

False Activism and Opportunism

Some people express skepticism of famous personalities like Taylor Swift wishing Happy Pride month, considering it a result of opportunism rather than true support. Many also accuse politicians and corporations of advancing unrelated policies or issues on the back of Pride, coopting the movement.

Ironic Pushback

Much of the response from those critical of Pride month is satirical or ironic. Some of it may be genuine, but the lines of irony are increasingly blurred. Some suggest, given the increased visibility of LGBT Pride, it might be time to formally recognize and celebrate “Heterosexual Awesomeness Month.”

LGBTQ+ Infighting

There also seems to be a disconnect or misunderstanding between the different sectors within the community. There are concerns about an over-focus on trans issues at the expense of lesbian and gay rights. These allegations assert certain factions in the LGBT community are undermining the progress made in gay rights and causing Americans to object.

Liberals and Progressives Participate and Fight

Socially liberal and politically progressive Americans vocally support Pride month with a special emphasis on transgender issues. There is discussion around trans women and their right to be treated as women, strongly condemning perceived attempts to deny their identity and rights.

However, while many left leaning Americans support Pride, there are growing areas of dissention on the left:

Leftist Ideologies at War

Some progressives on the far left argue Pride month has been commercialized. They say corporations and mainstream society use it as a marketing tool. They feel used rather than genuinely supported, calling it capitalism “gone wrong” as businesses glom onto Pride iconography.

Performative Allyship

Similarly, there is frustration on the left at performative, capitalistic, or hypocritical, allyship from politicians and other public figures. There are accusations that professed allies lack a concrete track record of supporting LGBTQ+ rights or have previously engaged in activities deemed harmful to the community.

Gays and Lesbians Revolt

More moderate gays and lesbians are questioning the increasingly prevalent political and social emphasis on transgender issues. They feel ideologically driven activism is overshadowing or undermining their rights, achievements, and concerns. As a result, they are distancing themselves from transgender and similarly woke issues.

Palestine Protests Versus Pride

Progressive anti-Israel protesters are also clashing with Pride events. Pro-Palestine demonstrators blocking Pride gatherings exacerbate the sense of fracture on the left regarding Israel. This group view their protests as a necessary disruption to bring attention to the plight of Palestinians.

Conservative Critiques of Pride

Liberals and progressives are not the only ones taking issue with modern Pride initiatives. Conservatives and Christians have long been critics of the increasing push to normalize LGBT issues. Some of their complaints include:

Special Treatment Arguments

Some argue LGBT individuals have the same rights as everyone else. They view Pride Month as unnecessary or a form of “special treatment” in which this protected class receives pandering. Most of this group views Pride month as excessively long and divisive or unequal.

Criticisms of Vulgarity

Many Americans view Pride month as diverging from its original meaning. They say it’s now overly focused on trans issues, fetishism, and exhibitionism. They object to the increasingly vulgar displays foisted on the public in the name of “equality.”

Political and Religious Arguments

Large segments of religious America also oppose Pride due to religious their beliefs. They frequently believe that homosexuality, bisexuality, and other queer lifestyles, are not morally right. They object to secular, progressive values being forced on them during what some are calling “Liberal Holy Month.”

Influence on children

Critics also express concerns about the influence of Pride and LGBT activism on young people. They say public celebrations and dogmatic promotion of increasingly divergent sexual orientations and gender identities only confuse children. They argue these events inappropriately expose kids to sexual content.

The Role of Corporations

Like some liberals, conservatives also criticize corporations. Their objection, however, is more about the imposition of LGBT pandering during the month of June. Conservatives dislike brands who make rainbow logos and products prominent, forcing the public to view and engage with material the disagree with.

A recent study examining the spending behaviors of 42 million Americans using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits has sparked reactions from voters. The study reveals purchasing patterns and elicits strong sentiments and opinions across demographic lines. MIG Reports analysis delves into these discussions to understand patterns, sentiments, and who is to blame in the minds of different demographic and political groups.

Most Discussed Aspects of SNAP

Food Choices and Nutrition

The study reveals SNAP recipients are not primarily spending their benefits on nutritious options like broccoli. This has triggered broad debates about the effectiveness of the program. Some emphasize the necessity for better nutrition education and stricter guidelines on eligible foods.

Discussions about the 2024 Farm Bill highlight concerns about potential slashes to SNAP benefits and changes that could weaken the nutritional content of school meals. There is significant focus on the balance between providing sufficient nutrition and managing the costs of these programs.

Affordable Housing

Many people link the need for food welfare to the broader issue of affordable housing. Many argue the high cost of living, particularly in areas like Hudson Yards and Northern Virginia, exacerbates people’s inability to afford food.

Calls for affordable housing are prevalent. Some reference local and federal government responsibilities in increasing housing provisions for low-income families, veterans, and aging Americans.

Political and Economic Blame

The conversation is heavily polarized along political lines. Republicans and Democrats both cast blame on each other for the current state of SNAP and the need for food welfare. For instance, some blame Democratic policies for creating a dependent society. Others criticize Republican-led states for misappropriating funds meant for low-income families.

There is also a sentiment that large corporations, like Walmart, despite paying higher wages, are part of the problem. Some say this is due to economic inequalities in red states.

Negative Sentiment

Much of the online conversation is negative, particularly around the perceived inefficacies and mismanagement of SNAP. Terms like "crippling taxation," "misappropriating funds," and "food stamp president" suggest a widespread dissatisfaction with current policies.

There is frustration over the perceived lack of action from politicians. People say things like “every politician in DC has lost credibility” reflecting a deep distrust in the desire to address these issues effectively.

Positive Sentiment

Some positive sentiments exist about potential policy changes. Some advocate for increased funding and support for low-income communities. Celebratory remarks about Democratic presidential candidates and infrastructure bills that benefit low-income states show voter desire for future reforms.

Who is to Blame?

Political Affiliations

Republicans often blame Democratic policies for making citizens overly dependent on government aid. They argue policies should aim to reduce dependency and promote self-sufficiency.

Democrats criticize Republican-led states for failing to adequately support low-income communities and for mismanaging federal funds meant for these groups. They highlight the need for more robust support systems and infrastructure.

Regional Differences

Discussions suggest a stark contrast between urban and rural perspectives. Urban areas emphasize the need for affordable housing and criticize uncontrolled development that drives up living costs. Rural areas focus more on the immediate A food stamps study on how 42 million Americans utilize SNAP benefits has unveiled a complex web of concerns and criticisms.

Sentiments around food stamps are largely negative, reflecting widespread frustration and distrust in the political system.

As the 2024 Farm Bill approaches, these discussions underscore the urgent need for bipartisan solutions that genuinely address the root causes of welfare needs.impacts of inflation and the availability of SNAP benefits.

Socioeconomic Status

Lower-income groups express a sense of abandonment by the political system, feeling neither side truly addresses their needs. The elderly and veterans are particularly vocal about the inadequacies in support for affordable housing and food.

MIG Reports deep-dive analysis on Mexican cartel presence in the United States highlights a few notable trends:

• Increasing concerns about cartel activities
• Polarization on illegal immigration
• Evolving discourse on the border
• Media blame for information gaps among voters

Cartels inflict severe humanitarian and socioeconomic harm on their own country and the U.S. They drive violence, exploitation, and forced migration; destabilizing communities, undermining development, and contributing to poverty and corruption.

They also play a significant role in irregular and illegal immigration, with migrants often falling victim to cartel violence. Their activities threaten national security by infiltrating U.S. neighborhoods with drug and child trafficking and organized crime.

• Discussion trends show drug and human trafficking are two of the most prevalent keywords related to border issues.

Common Viewpoints Among All Voters

Despite significant ideological and political divides, recent escalations in the border crisis are driving down approval for the Biden administration’s policies. Democrats and progressives are still much more likely to support the existing border situation. However, there are several key points of agreement that a majority of Americans share:

• American sentiment towards Mexican cartels is overwhelmingly negative.
• Cartels are primarily viewed through the lens of violence, drug trafficking, and the ensuing social harm.
• The opioid crisis driven by fentanyl is a major concern linked to cartel activities.
• Cartels are perceived as a direct threat to American society.

There also seems to be certain knowledge gaps in various demographics regarding border issues. Analysis suggests this is largely a result of media outlets selectively reporting or framing political narratives.

• Conservatives and legal immigrants tend to have the most initiative in seeking out information about the border and Mexican cartels.
• Wealthier and more left leaning Americans may have some knowledge, but largely accept media narratives.
• Young Americans and elderly Americans may both have a skewed view of the border due to lack of or outdated information.

Views of Mexican Cartels

Political Trends

Republicans tend to view cartels as a major threat exacerbated by perceived lax border policies under Democratic administrations. The narrative often links cartels to broader criticisms of immigration policy, highlighting issues such as fentanyl trafficking and human trafficking.

Democrats, while also concerned about cartel activities, focus more on the humanitarian aspects of immigration and the need for comprehensive immigration reform. There is less emphasis on cartels as the primary issue.

Geographic Influence

Border State residents in places like Texas, Arizona, and California are more likely to have heightened concerns about cartels due to their proximity to the Mexican border. These areas are more directly impacted by cartel activities like drug trafficking and illegal crossings.

Concerns about cartels in non-border states are often more abstract and tied to national narratives than direct experience.

Socioeconomic Status

Lower income communities are often directly affected by the negative consequences of drug trafficking and illegal cartel activity. They tend to see increased crime and addiction rates. Higher income communities are more likely to be focused on broader national security and economic implications rather than personal safety.

Overall Sentiment Trends

The volume of discourse around cartels has increased significantly in recent years. It is particularly pronounced amid the opioid crisis and high-profile cases of human trafficking.

Negative sentiment has also intensified, especially among Republicans and residents of border states. There is a marked increase in the association of cartel activities with broader criticisms of the Biden administration's policies.

However, there are notable demographics who are relatively ignorant of the complexity of cartel operations. This group includes:

• Some urban liberal populations – particularly those insulated from direct impacts. They often do not fully grasp the nuances of cartel operations and the effects on border communities.
• Younger Americans – especially those not living in high-impact areas. They may lack a comprehensive understanding of the issue, often receiving information through filtered social media narratives.

Top Discussion Topics Related to Cartels

Drug Trafficking

The fentanyl crisis is a significant concern. Many attribute the influx of fentanyl to cartel activities. This is often mentioned with criticisms of current border policies.

Human Trafficking

There is strong negativity towards cartels perpetrating human trafficking, particularly child trafficking. This topic ties into broader concerns about immigration policies and border security.

Violent Crime

Many Americans associate cartels with increased violent crime. This is true in border states and across the nation as cartels expand their operations.

View of Illegal Immigration

Political Trends

Republicans typically express strong anti-cartel sentiments. They often link cartel activities to illegal immigration and border security. Messaging from conservative media and politicians emphasizes the dangers posed by cartels in terms of drug trafficking and violent crime.

As with cartels, liberals and Democrats tend to focus more on humanitarian aspects of the immigration conversation. They highlight the plight of asylum seekers and the socioeconomic factors driving migration. They may be more critical of aggressive border policies they feel unfairly target immigrants.

Geographic Influence

Border State residents have heightened awareness and therefore stronger opinions about illegal immigration due to proximity and direct impact. Experiences with border security issues and local crime rates influence their views.

Residents of non-border states are generally less directly affected and may be more influenced by national media narratives. Their opinions can fluctuate based on high-profile news stories or political campaigns.

Socioeconomic Status

Working-class and lower income groups are more likely to support stringent measures against illegal immigration due to perceived competition for jobs and resources. They also have higher exposure to drug-related issues in their communities.

Middle- and upper-class groups often focus more on policy and humanitarian aspects, advocating for comprehensive immigration reform and international cooperation to tackle the root causes of cartel power.

Overall Sentiment Trends

Recent data, such as the rise in fentanyl-related deaths and reports of increased illegal crossings, have heightened public concern about immigration. This is particularly pronounced among conservatives, who link these issues directly to border security failures.

The topic of cartels and immigration has become highly polarized, with significant differences in sentiment between political affiliations. This polarization is fueled by targeted media narratives and political rhetoric.

There is also a growing divide between those advocating for empathetic approaches to immigration and those prioritizing national security. This divide is often along socioeconomic political lines.

Ignorance of the Border Crisis

Urban residents in non-border states far from the crisis sometimes have limited knowledge of cartel operations and immigration. Their understanding is largely shaped by media consumption, which can vary widely in accuracy and focus.

While more informed on certain social issues, younger Americans often lack detailed knowledge about the operational intricacies of cartels, focusing instead on broader humanitarian narratives.

Residents in higher socioeconomic brackets can also be somewhat insulated from the direct impacts of cartel activities, leading to a less urgent perception of the issue.

Overall View of the Border Crisis

General Sentiments and Understanding

Republicans typically express the deepest concern over cartel activities, associating them with broader issues of illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and national security. Sentiment is strongly negative, emphasizing the dangers posed by open border policies, which conservatives believe enables cartel operations. This group almost universally advocates for stricter border controls and increased law enforcement.

Democrats often frame the issue within a broader context of immigration reform and humanitarian concerns. While acknowledging the dangers of cartels, they argue for comprehensive immigration policies to address root causes and provide pathways to citizenship. Their sentiment is mixed, balancing concerns about security with empathy for migrants.

Media Influence

Media outlets play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. Conservative media often highlights violent incidents involving cartels and illegal immigrants. They disseminate information and bring awareness to what is happening while advocating for stringent border measures.

In contrast, mainstream and leftist media focuses on humanitarian aspects, critiquing harsh enforcement policies and highlighting stories of migrant suffering. Many view mainstream media as a critical cause for progressive and urban Americans’ lack of knowledge about border issues.

There is some media coverage, especially from outlets like NBC News and AP News, amplifying the perception of cartels as a pervasive threat. Reports on cartel violence and its impact on both Mexican and American communities reinforce the idea that cartels are a critical issue that requires urgent attention.

Public Awareness

There is a significant disparity in public awareness about cartel operations. Many Americans are aware of high-profile incidents and general issues related to drug trafficking and violence. However, detailed knowledge about cartel structures, operations, and their socioeconomic impact is limited. This is true across the board but is especially pronounced among those not directly affected by the border crisis.

Despite insufficient public awareness about border issues overall, discussions have dramatically increased during the Biden administration. Awareness also rises with high-profile incidents like the murder of Laken Riley, which many point out happens more frequently under current policies.

Social media platforms also amplify these discussions. This can result in viral awareness campaigns or sometimes lead to echo chambers where existing sentiments are reinforced.

Major Sentiment Trends

There is a noticeable increase in fear, especially among conservative circles. This is driven by increasing violent crimes and drug trafficking associated with cartel activities.

Among liberals and younger demographics, there is advocacy for balanced policies that secure the border while addressing humanitarian needs. This trend reflects an acknowledgment, even on the left, of unacceptable current conditions at the border.

In the current political climate, American sentiment towards political opponents is increasingly polarized, showing a lack of trust between voters, leaders, and pundits. This trend can be seen across all forms of media, from mainstream news outlets to social media platforms, and even in personal conversations.

Many Americans voice a profound sense of distrust specifically towards mainstream media and traditional institutions like academia and government agencies. This is particularly pronounced among supporters of President Donald Trump, many of whom perceive mainstream news outlets as biased against their candidate. Sentiments of mistrust often extend to other traditional institutions, such as the judiciary, which are seen as being manipulated by political opponents.

The way the media and electorate portray political opponents is negative, often bordering on vilification. Incendiary and strong rhetoric has become commonplace in American political discourse. This is particularly apparent in news coverage and discussion of Donald Trump's ongoing legal issues.

Among mainstream media outlets, Trump’s legal challenges are invariably presented in a way that paints him as guilty before proven innocent. This narrative, coupled with the perceived leftist bias of mainstream media, further fuels distrust and animosity towards political figures, institutions, and the media itself.

• Online discussions show the highest volume of mentions regarding conservative and right leaning individuals like pundits, journalists, and influencers.
• Mainstream media outlets like cable news and online publications also generate significant discussion.

• Public sentiment toward conservative individuals and outlets is slightly higher than toward mainstream individuals and outlets.
• Conservative media sentiment seems to fluctuate the most, averaging 45% with a high of 50%.
• Mainstream media sentiment fluctuates less and stays lower, averaging 43% with a low of 41%.
  

Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in the use of inflammatory language and rhetoric when discussing political opponents. This type of discourse serves to further exacerbate division and mistrust among Americans, leading to a climate of hostility and confrontation.

MIG Reports analysis suggests that, unless there is a concerted effort to foster dialogue and understanding between opposing political camps, the level of polarization and mistrust is likely to persist. This could have serious implications for the functioning of American democracy, as well as the overall social cohesion in the country.

An analysis of swing states by MIG Reports in the upcoming 2024 presidential election indicates former President Trump has a slight lead over President Biden on three key issues: border security, the economy, and foreign wars.

Several other data points also indicate a preference for Trump, highlighting successes from his administration and a general distrust of Biden’s leadership. Additionally, criticism of Biden appears to reflect recent and ongoing events. Criticisms of Trump are largely historical events like “Russiagate” and his handling of COVID, rather than current issues.

2024 President Race

Pennsylvania

Discussion about Trump is centered on his potential re-election and the perception that he still poses a significant challenge to the current administration. Some voters believe there are politicized efforts to mitigate his influence. They infer this means he remains an influential figure in politics, despite Democratic hopes to the contrary.

Conversations about Biden are predominantly critical. There are many accusations ranging from personal dishonesty to broader criticisms of his administration's handling of immigration and foreign conflicts. Despite negative sentiment, some voters express support for Biden's efforts to bring change and view him as the best option for Democratic re-election.

Georgia

Sentiment towards Trump is predominantly negative in Georgia. Voters focus on his past actions which they view as disrespectful or deceitful. Most conversations suggest little support for Trump’s potential return to office. However, there are pockets of supporters who believe in his chances of winning, highlighting the persistence of his voter base.

Discussions about Biden highlight his empathetic side, accomplishments, and significant support. There is specific discussion about his work with a young boy who stutters and his campaign's success in engaging younger voters. However, there are also criticisms and skepticism of his administration's effectiveness and integrity, including doubts about a potential second term.

Florida

Discussion trends among Trump supporters focus on calls for Biden's impeachment, citing perceived failures in his administration and criticism of the economy. There's also strong opposition towards Biden, with doubts about the legitimacy of his 2020 election and criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris's handling of the border crisis.

Conversely, Biden supporters dismiss calls for his impeachment. They accuse Republicans of distracting from policy issues. They criticize Trump for his alleged role in January 6 and express frustration with Republican obstructionism. Overall, sentiment reflects impatience with polarization and skepticism towards Trump's actions.

Ohio

Criticism of Trump centers on his personal character and past actions, including accusations of domestic abuse and criticism of his business practices. Some defend him, portraying him as a victim of political bias. Others express dissatisfaction with both parties' inability to listen to voters.

Criticism towards Biden focuses on his past actions, policies, family, wealth, and mental capability. There are accusations of hypocrisy and controversies involving his family members. While some appreciate his support of small businesses, overall sentiment remains largely negative towards both Biden and VP Harris.

Wisconsin

Discussion about Trump suggests frustration and disappointment with both his term and the current administration. Some imply trust in government is continuing to fall. There's a notable lack of direct mentions of Trump, indicating a shift in focus away from him as a news driver for Wisconsin voters.

Criticism towards Biden includes accusations of selling out the country, racism, and pedophilia. There is negative sentiment focused on perceived wrongdoings and scandals. However, some voters defend Biden, attributing budget mishandling to Congress and expressing support for his leadership.

Nevada

Discussion of Trump in Nevada includes criticism for past behavior and scandals during his presidency. However, it's less frequent and focused compared to criticisms of Biden. Some voters reference Trump's impeachment and refusal to accept the presidential salary.

Sentiment towards Biden is overwhelmingly negative in Nevada. There are accusations that he is a traitor, a criminal, and dishonest. Criticisms focus on his policies, particularly in foreign affairs and the economy. There are also frequent references to broken promises and negative comparisons with Trump.

North Carolina

Voter discourse about Trump includes criticism for being twice impeached and labeled as a liar and a criminal. However, there's a significant amount of support for his return in 2024, reflected in posts using #Trump2024.

Sentiment towards Biden is largely negative in North Carolina. There’s criticism directed at his policies, decisions, and personal character. Calls for his impeachment and hashtags like #DemocratsAreDestroyingAmerica indicate dissatisfaction with his leadership, along with attacks on VP Harris.

New Hampshire

Online discussion about Trump includes criticism of his character, handling of the pandemic, and faith. But there's also notable support, especially regarding his influence on industries like trucking and calls for him to run again in 2024.

Discussions around Biden are predominantly negative. New Hampshire voters criticize his policy decisions, leadership, and allegations of dementia and manipulation by a "shadow government.” However, some comments express support for his commitment to youth and AAPI communities, democracy, the environment, and optimism for a potential second term.

Michigan

Public sentiment towards Trump in Michigan is mixed but leans negative. There are criticisms of his personal behavior, alleged misconduct, and perceived corruption. However, some express support for his economic policies.

Sentiment towards Biden is predominantly negative. Voters accuse him of incompetence, dishonesty, and senility, along with speculating about his mental state and potential impeachment. Some voters express support for Biden's financial investments in public education and enthusiasm for his re-election.

Arizona

Discourse about Trump includes criticism of his past actions and handling of issues like immigration. Some Arizonans do defend him, claiming he's unfairly and politically targeted, anticipating his potential future leadership.

The sentiment towards Biden in Arizona is predominantly negative. There are calls for impeachment, criticism of policies, and dissatisfaction with the economy. However, some voters express support for the Biden-Harris team, praising VP Harris.

U.S. National Security Issues

Pennsylvania

Sentiment toward Trump on national security is mixed. Some in Pennsylvania express strong support for his policies, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. Others strongly criticize his handling of conflicts and allege ties to Russia.

Discussion about Biden is also mixed, with some supporting his approach to international issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict. Others question his emotional state and raise concerns about controversies like Hunter Biden's alleged laptop scandal.

Georgia

Discussion about Trump focuses on his administration's handling of international affairs. Supporters in Georgia credit him for maintaining peace in the Middle East and criticizing the current state under Biden's leadership. Critics see him as dangerous and unfit, accusing him of inciting insurrection and destabilizing alliances like NATO.

Sentiment toward Biden is mixed, with critics blaming him for perceived threats to Israel's sovereignty and conflicts in Ukraine. Democratic supporters defend his administration's actions and blame problems on the previous administration, particularly Trump's handling of foreign affairs.

Florida

Florida discussion about Trump shows strong support for his stance on Hamas and Israel. Some believe the conflict in the Middle East wouldn't have escalated under his leadership. However, others criticize him for potential ulterior motives in his relationship with Putin and handling of the Ukraine situation.

Sentiment towards Biden is less clear, with some users expressing skepticism about his approach to managing the Israel-Palestine conflict and providing aid to Israel, while others criticize his seeming support for Ukraine amid discussions about the role of Russia and Ukraine in foreign policy dynamics.

Ohio

Discussion about Trump reveals mixed sentiment in Ohio. Some express support for his pro-Israel stance and other foreign policies. Others criticize him for alleged ties to Russia and policies during his administration they believe didn't benefit the United States.

Ohio voters also criticize Biden's leadership, blaming him for a negative international image of America. There is also criticism for instances Hamas support on university campuses. Discussion trends focus on international relations and funding allocation, with questions about why funds are sent to Ukraine amidst domestic issues.

Wisconsin

Sentiment towards Trump is polarized in Wisconsin. Some express staunch support, citing him as a strong ally to Israel. Others criticize him for allegedly prioritizing Russia over America. There are also accusations of political corruption.

Discussions about Biden’s foreign policy center on his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Sentiment seems split between dissatisfied Democrats and supporters. This is encapsulated in the term "Ben-Gvir vote," suggesting alignment with a hardline stance on Israel's security and sovereignty. There are allegations of political corruption, with public scrutiny towards financial influences in Biden’s administration.

Nevada

Sentiment towards Trump on security issues is mixed. Some Nevadans accuse him of colluding with Russia. Detractors express concern about his potential influence on future elections. However, many strongly support him, challenging the narrative that he has ties with Russia and emphasizing his support for Israel.

Discussion about Biden is similarly divided. Some voters show gratitude for his actions, especially regarding Israel and Hamas. Critics disavow his policies, particularly his approach to Ukraine and Israel. They question the accountability of aid provided to Ukraine.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, discussion about Trump is intensely polarized. Supporters praise his leadership skills, saying he will win the 2024 election. They applaud his stance on foreign policy and security. Detractors express concern about the potential for his return and criticize his approach to international relations, particularly with Ukraine and Russia.

References to Biden in the discussion focus on his administration's actions in the Ukraine conflict. Critics argue his policies have been ineffective and led to increased aggression from Russia. However, there are fewer direct sentiments expressed about Biden compared to Trump, indicating the current narrative is more heavily focused on Trump.

New Hampshire

Discussion around Trump includes his relationship with Russia, with some claiming he was "installed" by the country. Others find the idea amusing. His perceived attitude towards Palestine and Israel also generates criticism from anti-Israel activists. There's also criticism of his divisive politics, with some expressing optimism for a future where he is less influential.

Biden's narrative is less prominent in New Hampshire. There are isolated mentions such as an alleged link between Biden and the 1968 PLO terrorists. However, there's less discussion overall. The issue of financial aid to Ukraine and Israel is recurring in the minimal conversation. Some question foreign funding, suggesting the southern border of the U.S is more pressing.

Michigan

Discussion around Trump centers on his perceived relationship with Putin and Russia. There are allegations that he sold out the country and deliberately mishandled Afghanistan to distract from Russia's actions in Ukraine. There are also criticisms of his Middle Eastern policy. However, some Michigan voters express confidence in Trump’s ability to handle international relations if re-elected.

Sentiment towards Biden is also largely negative. There is focus on his administration's role in the Israeli-Hamas conflict and accusations of complicity in the Gaza Genocide. However, some praise his legislative operations and support his foreign aid decisions, indicating some mixed sentiment.

Arizona

For Trump, criticisms often focus on allegations of corruption and criminal behavior, including accusations of selling intelligence to Russia and Saudi Arabia. Despite this, many in Arizona praise his strong support for Israel and his tough stance against Hamas.

Criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy mainly revolve around his handling of international affairs in Ukraine, Russia, and Israel. Some argue his administration's financial aid to Ukraine will lead to more deaths and destruction. Others express disappointment at his perceived ambivalence towards Israel.

As more American voters begin to think about the presidential election this fall, they are beginning to express concerns about political turmoil. MIG Reports analysis shows online discussion about increased turmoil in the form of violent, economic, and political contentions. While Democrats and Republicans typically emphasize different dangers, both sides seem to fear election interference and political violence.

The extent and nature of any pre-election turmoil could significantly impact voter sentiment and turnout, potentially affecting the election's outcome.

Mutual Worries Among Liberals and Conservatives

Most voters are concerned about corruption and unethical behavior within the government. They believe politicians are not acting in the best interest of the public and are instead focused on power and political agendas.

Election Interference

One of the most prominent concerns among all voters, regardless of party, is the possibility of election interference. For Democratic voters, fears seem to center more around potential foreign interference. Republican voters more frequently express skepticism about domestic interference from the Democrat party.

Political Violence and Riots

Memories of January 6 still loom large in the minds of many Democrats. This causes anxiety about the potential for increased “far-right violence,” whether Trump or Biden is reelected. Republicans worry more about politicized violence from leftist activists like Black Lives Matter or anti-Israel protesters. Both sides seem to fear political riots are highly likely no matter who wins the election.

October Surprises

The tradition of October surprises—major news stories breaking shortly before the election—also contributes to worries about election turmoil. Voters fear that such events could sway the election outcome, though there are many speculations as to what an October Suprise might be.

• National sentiment toward the economy, COVID, election integrity and protests have been decreasing in the last two weeks.
• Republicans voice concerns about a potential resurgence of COVID lockdowns and Democrats often worry about election interference.

Black Swan Events Could Bring Upheaval

Black swan events are unpredictable events which have potentially severe consequences. Given their nature, it's challenging to forecast what these could be – but many voters think of recent black swan events like COVID-19.

Some of the black swan events voter mention include:

• Significant escalation in international conflicts
• A global economic crisis
• Environmental or natural disasters
• Another public health or pandemic event

Any major black swan event could dramatically reshape the political landscape and voter sentiment.

Conservatives and right leaning voters are more likely to suggest black swan events like another public health crisis, causing renewed government lockdowns. They are also more likely to mention global economic situations which could severely impact American commerce and quality of life.

Liberal and left leaning voters are more likely to mention wars and conflicts breaking out internationally. They may also be more concerned about potential natural disasters or climate chaos due to climate change.

Republican Fears About Election Turmoil

Republican voters often speak out about potential changes to election laws which they believe could lead to fraud. They cite things like expanded mail-in voting or removal of voter ID laws as election dangers.

These voters also worry about violent protests or riots related to racial or social justice issues. There are also growing concerns about violent anti-Israel protests which could destabilize communities and potentially sway voter sentiment.

While Democrats talk more about misinformation online, some right leaning voters also worry about social media censorship or bias against conservative viewpoints. Many of this group believe that important information was suppressed during the 2020 election which, if voters had known, may have shifted opinions.

Overall, many voters express a lack of trust in the electoral process and legal system. Many Republicans feel the system is corrupt and untrustworthy, expressing disillusionment with the voting process in general. There is a growing sense that voting is becoming futile because of bureaucratic and power-grabbing tactics by corrupt politicians and institutions.

Democratic Fears in 2024

Democrats often voice concern about voter suppression, particularly impacting minority communities. They tend to place this as an important issue which could impede a fair election.

Liberals are also more vocal about the spread of misinformation and disinformation, particularly on social media platforms. This is a shared concern among many voters, but Democrats tend to express more concern about how misinformation may influence voter sentiment and election integrity.

There are some Democratic voters who worry about President Biden's mental fitness, particularly given his age. While this is a worry that many don’t express publicly, those that do fear it could deter Democrats from supporting him in 2024.

Many Democrats also fear the party is not doing enough to address pressing issues like racial and social justice. They fear Biden’s unwillingness to support Palestine or failing to engage with social issues could impact Democratic voter sentiment.

Democratic voters also have deep concerns about the potential impact of a Trump win on the nation's standing in the world. They fear if Trump returns to power, the U.S. may align more with Putin's Russia, which could have consequences for international relations and national security. There is also a strong sentiment among Democratic voters that a potential Trump win could lead to authoritarian rule.

Israel

Public commentary about a foreign aid bill to Israel reveals largely political divisions, with an array of sentiments across different voter groups and demographics.

Republicans

A strong sentiment of support for Israel is evident. Many Republicans express concern about Iran's attacks on Israel and emphasize the need for the U.S. to back Israel. They also highlight the role of the U.S. in ensuring Israel's security and the need for Congress to act in support of Israel.

Democrats

There’s a mixed bag of opinions among Democrats. Some express concern about the U.S. getting involved in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, suggesting it's not in our best interest to get dragged into a potential war. However, other Democrats acknowledge the need for some form of aid to Israel but suggest the U.S. should impose strict political conditions on any such aid. They also express concern about the potential for the situation to escalate into a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Independents

Divided overall, Independents express support for Israel and condemn Iran's actions but also question why the U.S. should be involved in the conflict. There's also an undercurrent of frustration about U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, with some Independents suggesting America should stay out of the conflict altogether.

There is also a narrative that connects the situation in Israel with the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, suggesting aid for both countries should be considered simultaneously. Some people express frustration that Ukraine is not receiving the same level of support as Israel.

Among various demographics, there is a correlation between religious beliefs and the level of support for Israel. Some use religious texts to justify supporting Israel, suggesting a strong connection between religious beliefs and political opinions on this issue.

Ukraine

Republicans

The Republicans and conservatives are quite divided. Some still voice strong support for providing aid. However, there are large swaths of right leaning voters who vehemently oppose sending more American tax dollars to Ukraine. Many in this group use strong language to emphasize what they view as a misuse of American funds. They do not want to spend money abroad while domestic issues are being neglected – particularly the crisis at the southern border. They also accuse RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) of betraying their party by supporting more foreign aid.

Democrats

A significant portion of Democrats remain strong advocates for providing taxpayer-funded aid to Ukraine. Many express their support or say they’ve signed petitions to get military aid to Ukraine. They criticize hold-ups in Congress and believe that helping Ukraine is essential for democracy.

Independents

Independent views seem to be scattered. Some express concern about escalating tensions and potential war, suggesting the U.S. should refrain from fueling the conflict by sending aid. Others seem frustrated about the U.S. providing aid abroad when there are urgent domestic issues.

Across all groups, there is a growing disapproval for sending tax dollars abroad while economic and border security issues worsen at home. There is also a perceived correlation between aid to Ukraine and Israel, with many seeing these as linked issues. Disparate political opinions about Ukraine and Israel seem to confuse the issue of foreign aid overall.

Some advocate for separate aid packages, depending on which conflict they have more sympathy for. Certain critics question the decision to allocate more aid to Ukraine than to Israel. They express skepticism about Ukraine's governance, citing President Zelensky's background as a comedian and actor and questioning his alleged ties to the CIA.

Taiwan and China

Again, analysis of a proposed foreign aid bill to Taiwan reveals a broad range of viewpoints, falling mostly along political lines. However, these viewpoints largely focus on the geopolitical implications of the proposed foreign aid, with many users discussing the broader context of international alliances and conflicts.

Republicans

Many Republicans seem to favor the aid bill as a means of supporting democratic allies like Taiwan. They express concern about the perceived threats from countries like Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea, with some calling for stronger measures to counter these countries. There is also some criticism of Trump's foreign policy, with some Republicans accusing him of aligning with Putin, which they believe goes against the party's principles.

Democrats

Among Democrats, there is a noticeable lack of online discussion, which may be more indicative of the lack of mainstream media coverage. In 2022, then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was met with enthusiasm and approval from most Democratic voters. It is plausible Democrats may initially support a Taiwan aid bill, but ultimately withdraw support as geopolitical tensions rise (such as future tariffs on Chinese steel). There are also some voices calling for neutrality and peace, criticizing the U.S. for engaging in proxy wars and causing destabilization.

Independents

Independents express diverse views, with some supporting Israel and others siding with Iran. Some call for neutrality, criticizing both Israel and Iran for their actions. Many independents seem to be concerned about the potential for World War III, with some fearing that conflicts involving countries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea could escalate into a larger war.