Analysis
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In last night’s Michigan primaries, Donald Trump and Joe Biden each triumphed within their respective primary contests, but several key factors spell trouble for Biden’s re-election odds in the crucial swing state.
Trump garnered 138,000 more votes in the Republican contest than Biden's final tally in the Democratic primary. Worse for the 81-year-old President, pro-Palestinian efforts to lodge a protest vote under "Uncommitted" received more than 100,000 votes. While many in the mainstream media have scrambled to either downplay or outright deny a red light flashing moment for Biden, the uncommitted vote came just 54,000 away from Joe Biden’s margin of victory in Michigan in 2020.
Media Intelligence Group’s analysis of online discourse surrounding Trump and Biden in the Great Lakes State finds that Biden is indeed in serious trouble, with Trump poised to make perhaps one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. political history.
Dark Cloud Follows Biden Online
MIG’s analysis of online discourse directed at Biden by Michiganders finds a theme of doubt about Biden’s ability to serve as commander in chief and the Democratic nominee headed into November:
- Before uncommitted’s strong showing, MIG found, “users believe Biden could lose the primary due to dissatisfaction among certain voter groups.” And many users referring to him as "Genocide Joe.”
- Others highlight Biden’s age and acuity, a subject under increased scrutiny since the damning Hurr report dropped in early February. “There are discussions about Biden's ability to deliver the State of the Union address, with some questioning his mental fitness.” Some “suggest that Biden's lifespan could be a concern, questioning the wisdom of voting for him.”
- MIG found he still has ardent supporters, despite the chaos following Biden. “Some feel Biden and Kamala Harris will fight for them and plan to vote for them” in 2024.
Boiling Anger
Analysis of online discourse from Trump supporters in Michigan finds a theme of anger over both the past and the present that could motivate them to push Trump over the finish line in 2024.
- MIG’s analysis picks up discourse centering on the 2020 election results including, “allegations of election fraud,” and “users suggesting that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.”
Others are enraged at the current state of America under Biden, demanding immediate action before November.
- Frequently, Republicans lean into removing Biden now, with online comments “demanding the impeachment of Biden.”
- Biden’s weakest point and highest policy priority among a plurality of Americans, immigration, generates anger tooMIG found, “frustration with Biden's immigration policy, and accusations of him allowing an influx of undocumented immigrants into the country.”
- Others focus on increasingly tragic human stories of Biden’s immigration policy. “There are multiple references to an incident involving the slaughter of Laken Riley, with users accusing Biden of complicity.”
- Despite Biden defenders in mainstream media portending the economy is in great shape, Michiganders remain unconvinced of Bidenomics success and, “express dissatisfaction with his economic policies.”
While anger is a serious theme found in discourse by Trump supporters in Michigan, hope drives support for Trump’s re-election as well.
- Pro-Trump Michigan discourse finds many viewing his return as a solution to global chaos, voicing that, "If Trump had won a second term, he would have taken stronger action against China.” And their desire for him, “to be elected in 2024 and end wars.”
- Democrats remain critical of the former President, with some suggesting that, “Trump is pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.”
By the Numbers
With just nine months until election day, MIG’s analysis of head-to-head support online between Joe Biden and Donald Trump spells a tight final vote count in November.
- Today, Trump leads Biden 47% to 44% in Michigan, with RFK Jr. taking 9% of support.
Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - February 28
- Over the last 14 days, Biden’s lead in support versus Trump has crumbled, falling from an average of 50% to Trump’s 43% between February 15 and 21,to Trump capturing an average of 46% support to Biden’s 44% between February 22 and 29.
Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - last 14 days
- MIG’s analysisduring this period finds that Trump does not necessarily dominate Biden by garnering more positive indications of support. In fact, in individual candidate analysis, each held 45% approval between Febraury 15 and 21, when Biden’s support began to give way to Trump.
- What makes the difference is disparity in the volume of negativity directed at each candidate. Biden earned more negative than positive comments on Frebruary 17 and 18, and his support fell by7% against Trump.
- During this time frame, Biden’s ratio of positive comments to negative comments found the incumbent at -149, with Trump lower at -139. This implies a conclusion that Biden’s ultimate weakness in Michigan isn’t voters liking Trump more, but their anger towards Biden is stronger than dislike for Trump.
Looking Ahead
What is unfolding in Michigan spells potential disaster in a must-win state for Biden. Despite being thousands of miles from the border, MIG’s data shows that all states are increasingly focusing on immigration, coming to grips with the reality that every state is a border state in Joe Biden’s America.
It is nearly impossible for the Biden campaign to celebrate winning Michigan with so many cracks being revealed in the President’s 2020 winning strategy. Crucial minority groups essential to winning Democrat coalitions are fraying, evidenced by the substantial "Uncommitted" protest turnout. Democrats almost always beat Republicans in non-general election turnout, yet Trump’s turnout was more than Biden’s by 135,000.
Growing doubts on Biden’s electability, coupled with ever heightening scrutiny of Biden's policies and fitness for office contrasts sharply with the fervent support Trump enjoysAll this is fueled by a blend of anger and hope. As election day looms, the dynamics in Michigan come into focus, where dissatisfaction with the incumbent and a growing appetite for change sets the stage for what could be the most historic political comeback since Nixon’s return to the White House in 1969.
29
Feb
- Before uncommitted’s strong showing, MIG found, “users believe Biden could lose the primary due to dissatisfaction among certain voter groups.” And many users referring to him as "Genocide Joe.”
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What Californians Are Saying About Newsom’s Governance
In light of recent efforts to initiate yet another recall vote, California governor Gavin Newsom is facing significant criticism. Backlash against Newsom’s policies is growing as California continues to hemorrhage residents.
Most of the negativity is centered around his handling of the economy, crime, and immigration. People also blame Newsom for various issues ranging from wildlife protection to the decline in the quality of life in California.
- In the last five days, Newsom’s support has decreased from 48%, reaching a low of 43%.
- This drop coincided with a large increase in discussion volume, suggesting as more people discuss him, he loses support.
How Californian’s Perceive Newsom’s Public Image
Critics of Newsom are often more right leaning, expressing frustration and dissatisfaction with his liberal policies. They frequently describe California as a "communist" state under his leadership. Republicans also say he aligns himself too closely with President Biden and Vice President Harris.
However, regardless of political affiliation, common perceptions of Newsom include:
- His attitude is smug and elitist.
- A tone-deaf leadership style leaves people feeling unheard.
- He is focused more on illegal immigrants than Californians.
- He prioritizes national political ambitions over Californians’ needs.
- Accusations that he treats constituents, particularly Latinos, as servants.
Criticism From Residents
Voters accuse him of having a failed agenda that is negatively impacting public safety and quality of life in the state. Many critics also express concern that Newsom might aspire to run for President, causing him to neglect California’s current needs.
Many Californians believe his policies have led to an increase in crime, homelessness, and drug addiction. These issues, people say, have significantly decreased quality of life. Critics believe his policies are causing the state to deteriorate as more people move away.
People mention specific projects like a train that doesn't go anywhere as examples of his failed agenda and wasteful spending. Some also highlight the fact that businesses are leaving California, which is increasing economic issues for the state.
Reasons People Leave California
Many reports highlight the fact that more than 700,000 people have moved away from California since 2020. This is bolstered by MIG analysis which reveals the most common reasons people say they moved.
- Cost of Living
- Taxes
- Housing Crisis
- Political Climate – oppressive leftism
- Natural Disasters – wildfires, earthquakes, drought
- COVID policies – mask and vaccine mandates
- Business Regulations
- Crime Rates
- Changing Demographics
- Few Job Opportunities – outside of major cities and industries
Losing Issues for Newsom
Economy
- Gavin Newsom’s current approval on the economy is 42%, with a 30-day average of 43%.
- His 30-day high was 50% and his low was 36%.
There is also significant criticism of Newsom's handling of the California economy. Many who signed the petition to recall Newsom cite his inability to address the state's economic situation effectively.
Many Californians also express dissatisfaction with the high taxes, pointing out that despite them, there is no perceivable improvement in public services or infrastructure. A very common complaint is Newsom’s wasting of tax dollars.
People say the high and rising cost of living, along with businesses being driven out of the state by regulations is crippling the economy.
Border Security
- Gavin Newsom’s current approval on the border is 46%, with a 30-day average of 45%.
- His 30-day high was 51% and his low was 37%.
Sentiment toward Newsom regarding the border and immigration is overwhelmingly negative. The main concerns revolve around a perception that California has an open border. Many people are discussing the real-world impact of illegal immigration on their daily lives.
Voters accuse Newsom of prioritizing the rights, money, and benefits of illegal immigrants over Californians. They also express frustration at Newsom's lack of action and seeming callousness about the immigration situation at the southern border. This is a special point of grievance for those who criticize California’s sanctuary state status.
Californians who are unhappy with the sanctuary laws in the state are saying that Newsom deserves to be recalled and they plan to vote for his removal. They also argue that too much money is being spent on illegal immigrants, which they view as both a border and economy issue
Public safety and immigration are also overlapping issues, with many people pointing to crimes committed by illegal aliens as unacceptable and far too frequent. Many reiterate Newsom’s prioritizing the rights of illegal immigrants and violent felons over the safety of Californians.
Crime
- Gavin Newsom’s current approval on crime is 46%, with a 30-day average of 43%.
- His 30-day high was 53% and his low was 27%.
Regarding crime as a whole, people highlight rising violent crime and retail theft. They discuss the increased and relentless instances of theft and car break-ins, especially in places like San Francisco. They also talk about the impact organized retail theft is having on both shopping and the overall economy.
There’s also a discussion about gun rights in the state and how they impact crime. Democrats call for stronger gun laws in hopes of reducing gun violence. More conservative voters are unhappy with the existing gun restrictions, arguing it makes protection of life and property more difficult amid rising criminal activity. This group also criticizes the cost of carry permits in the state, saying they're unconstitutional.
There is an emphasis on crimes committed by illegal aliens who, many say, would never have the chance to perpetrate crimes if they were not allowed in the country to begin with. Many also point out that technically, all illegal immigrants are criminals, breaking the law when they entered the country.
Winning Issues for Newsom
Climate Change
- Gavin Newsom’s current approval on crime is 48%, with a 30-day average of 45%.
- His 30-day high was 51% and his low was 25%.
Many Democrats and Independents praise Newsom’s commitment to climate action. They call for more robust and equitable climate initiatives like the ones he has promoted.
Supporters appreciate his stance on issues such as climate change and social equity. They express their intention to vote against a recall, suggesting that they believe he genuinely cares about the climate, despite disagreements over some of his policies. This same group also applauds his efforts to counter policies and rhetoric of Republicans.
Abortion
- Gavin Newsom’s current approval on crime is 52%, with a 30-day average of 47%.
- His 30-day high was 52% and his low was 38%.
A lot of people support Newsom's stance on abortion, viewing it as a necessary right for women. They disagree with the idea of a national abortion ban, and certainly don’t want to see one in California.
They argue that the right to an abortion is essential for women's health and autonomy and should be protected. This group praises Newsom for standing up for women's rights in the face of conservative opposition.
Newsom’s Possible Presidential Run
Rumors of a potential run for the presidency also factor into how Californians view their governor.
Democrat Support for Newsom
Some Democrats believe Newsom is doing a great job as governor. They appreciate his defense of President Biden and say they would support his policies on a national level. This group think Newsom demonstrates strong leadership, and they admire his advocacy for issues like homelessness and wildlife protection. It is likely supportive Democrats would view Newsom as a strong candidate and might support his potential presidential run.
Democrats’ approval for Newsom often includes healthcare, climate change, his leadership during COVID, and his handling of the wildfires. They also overwhelmingly support his progressive stance on abortion rights.
Democrat Disapproval for Newsom
There are some concerns about Newsom among a portion of Democrats. Especially in a potential presidential run. These Democrats tend to disagree with some of his policies and actions as governor – particularly regarding immigration and the homeless crisis.
More moderate Democrats view Newsom as too liberal or too tied to the problems of California to be a strong presidential candidate. There are also concerns about Newsom's failure on issues like child exploitation and prostitution, which some Democrats feel he has not addressed adequately.
Overall, voters including a segment of Democrats criticize Newsom on homelessness, cost of living, and crime. Many people see these issues as egregious failures and therefore might not support him for president.
There are also those who express skepticism about Newsom's support for President Biden, accusing him of ignoring Biden's clear cognitive decline and supporting a false narrative.
27
Feb
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After a decisive Trump win in South Carolina over Nikki Haley, 59.8% to 39.5%, GOP voters seem to be doubling down on MAGA sentiments. MIG data showed support numbers very close to the GOP primary results in Haley’s home state.
A CNN exit poll showed that more than 4 in 10 GOP voters described themselves as MAGA, and even more supported Trump without calling themselves MAGA. This aligns with MIG data, which showed Trump leading well in the 60-70% approval range for much of the 30 days prior to the primary.
- Two days prior to the primary vote, MIG data showed Trump at 60% and 59% support.
- Nikki Haley earned 41% and 42% on those same two days.
- On the day of the election, MIG data showed Trump at 58% and Haley at 42%, a two-point difference with actual vote results.
GOP Support for Trump and Haley
South Carolina Primary Results
South Carolina Republicans Object to Dems Voting in the Primary
Leading up to the South Carolina primary, support for Trump was as high as 67%, lowering slightly by the time votes were cast. Some conservatives and MAGA Republicans express concerns over Democrats voting in the primary to weaken Trump support.
Many GOP voters are quite satisfied with the results, often citing Trump’s victory as a testament to his enduring popularity in the party. But there is also a degree of skepticism about elections and a belief in unfair tactics by Democrats.
Some voters allege that Democrats and Independents voted in the primaries to harm Trump's chances in the general election. They argue that Haley's votes were inflated by these individuals, and her actual support within the GOP is not as strong as the results imply.
Many MAGA voters believe the primary was influenced by liberals attempting to interfere with GOP party politics. They point to precincts where Haley received more votes than Trump did in the 2020 general election as evidence of this alleged infiltration.
The Fading Voices of Nikki Haley Supporters
Those who oppose Trump's win express a strong aversion towards his potential return to power. They highlight his inability to appeal to a significant portion of the Republican party, suggesting that Trump's win might not necessarily translate into success in a general election.
It seems that Nikki Haley supporters are more anti-Trump than pro-Haley. They tend to express a belief that his victory signifies a further entrenchment of divisive politics and a step away from more moderate, bipartisan approaches to governance.
More Popular Views of Haley Among the GOP Base
A lot of Republicans are also fiercely critical of Nikki Haley, accusing her of being a traitor to the Republican party and selling out to the Democrats.
There’s a clear recurring theme of voters feeling their concerns about illegal immigration are being ignored by politicians and the media. GOP voters feel this issue is directly impacting their lives and express a sense of being ignored by politicians like Haley. This is likely another factor that contributed to Trump's Soth Carolina win.
A significant portion of the online conversation is dominated by those criticizing Haley, highlighting her performance as divisive within the party. They accuse her of self-sabotaging her own career and pandering to liberals.
Critics emphasize Haley's perceived inability to win primaries, reiterating that she could not event defeat Trump even in her home state. They also accuse her of focusing on attacking Trump rather than proposing her own strategies or solutions.
Red States Double Down on Trump in 2024
Many conservative voters in South Carolina express satisfaction with Trump's triumph. They see it as a referendum on the “woke mind virus” that imposes progressive ideologies concerning race, gender, and social justice. Many red state voters see Trump as a bulwark against these ideologies, which they believe are eroding traditional American values.
Many in the South Carolina GOP are ardent Trump supporters who believe that the former president has been unfairly targeted by the legal system and the media. They express that they are rallying behind Trump with fervor, seeing him as a victim of a corrupt system. They argue that the accusations and legal cases against Trump are either baseless or politically motivated.
Republicans are showing strong support in South Carolina, leading up to the general election.
- Republicans gained a 30-day high of 51% support in South Carolina compared to a Democrat high of 45%.
- The Republican margin showed a 10-point gap between Republicans and Democrats on the day of the GOP primary.
Party Support in South Carolina
24
Feb
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Joe Biden's call to the media on December 23, 2023, to "start reporting it the right way", drove increased media coverage, MIG reports show. However, new White House messaging in the press has failed to resonate across the electorate. An increase in reporting from traditional media precipitated an increase in online discussion; however, not all media consumers are not buying White House job-creation or increased-GDP narratives compared with their experience. MIG data currently indicates overall dissatisfaction with the economy, with voters focusing on high taxes (specifically property taxes), younger professionals being unable to save and invest, and a general dissatisfaction with government spending decisions.
Democrats, however, were more likely to side with Biden, indicating a partisan split over the issue.
Democrats
- Perceive the media's reporting on the economy as overly negative or insufficiently informative.
- Argue that the emphasis on inflation and supply chain issues overshadows the accomplishments of the Biden administration, such as labor market gains since the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out employment growth during the Trump administration, and GDP growth.
- Strong Economy/Labor Markets:
- Democrats are more likely to believe narratives about labor and GDP growth signaling a strong economy, citing declining unemployment rates and robust job growth.
Republicans
- Largely skeptical of Biden's economic policies and the overall state of the economy
- View Biden's direct address to the press as an attempt to control economic narratives and downplay inflation and supply chain disruptions.
- Argue that the media should hold the administration accountable rather than drive narratives with White House talking points.
- Strong Economy/Labor Markets:
- Tend to disbelieve labor market and GDP narratives, pointing to inflation and supply chain disruptions, and arguing job growth under the Biden Administration has simply been a recovery of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Independents
- Often lean towards pragmatism over partisanship and show mixed responses.
- Some echo Democrats' views, others align more with Republicans or express broader skepticism towards media narratives.
- Strong Economy/Labor Markets:
- Independent voters appear split, with their beliefs indexing to their personal economic experiences and media they consume.
Messaging Analysis
Top Messages Increasing Biden’s Support:
- Highlighting job growth
- Emphasizing rebounding GDP
- Pointing out stock market performance
- Underscoring infrastructure investments
- Promoting the president’s Build Back Better plan
- Increased support for middle class and low-income families
Top Messages Decreasing Biden’s Support:
- Emphasizing inflation
- Highlighting supply chain disruptions
- Focusing on labor shortages
- Discussing increased government spending
- Criticizing his handling of the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Perceived overspending
- Potential tax increases
Biden's call for the media to "report it the right way" and the press lining up to drive White House talking points further underscores the deep partisan divide in the perception of the president’s economic policies and voters’ sifting of their own direct experience. The influence of media narratives on these perceptions is significant, highlighting the need for balanced and accurate reporting. At the end of the day, voters will have to weigh personal economic outcomes against partisan narratives and will balance GDP and stock market growth against the quality of life they enjoy.
Economic Issues
The current dominant theme emerging from the data is concern over taxes and the quality-of-life Americans enjoy for their hard-earned dollars. Discussion especially centers around property taxes and their impact on both individuals and businesses. Sentiment analysis shows frustration, particularly in higher-tax states like New York, Illinois, and California. This dissatisfaction is driving a shifting population and investment in states with lower tax rates, referred to as "winner" states, many in the Sun Belt, such as Tennessee, Texas, and Florida.
Age and stage of life appears to influence attitudes towards taxes. Younger respondents, particularly those just starting out in their careers, express concern about their ability to save and invest due to high tax rates. Older respondents, particularly those who are property owners, express dissatisfaction with high property taxes.
Regionally, the data shows a clear divide. People in states with high taxes are expressing greater dissatisfaction and are considering migrating to states with lower taxes. The trend is particularly pronounced in New York, where people express concerns about crime, high cost of living, and perceived political targeting of investors, in addition to high taxes.
Politically, there seems to be a divide along party lines. Republicans express satisfaction with tax cuts or rebates in their regions, while Democrats criticize spending decisions, such as National Guard deployments to the southern border, which they believe could be better invested in solving tax and insurance issues. Still, immigration may yet come to bear on the economy in squeezing rent and housing inventory. Housing inventory remains exceedingly tight and prices high, keeping younger buyers from home ownership.
Analysis shows general dissatisfaction with high taxes across different demographic groups, with more Americans examining their life opportunities and outcomes in the face of their tax burden. Dissatisfaction is reflected in shifting investment trends and migration patterns, which could have significant long-term impacts on regional economies and elections.21
Feb
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Donald Trump’s recent comments at a South Carolina rally on NATO and Russia sparked a media firestorm with some claiming Republicans are now doing damage control over national security issues. But new reports indicate swing state voters share the former president’s sentiment that NATO countries share the responsibility for buffering Russia.
Full Story
Speaking at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, President Trump recounted a conversation during his first term with an unnamed NATO leader. The former President told the crowd that he was asked what the U.S. would do if a NATO nation failed to uphold the alliance's mandatory two percent defense spending commitment. Trump’s reply: such a nation would have to confront the possibility of Russia acting with impunity.
Mainstream media and political elites were quick to decry Trump's remarks. President Biden criticized Trump's remarks as "un-American," a frequent knee-jerk against Trump, known for challenging establishment norms. Adding to the chorus, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed concern to NBC News that Trump’s comments would damage U.S. credibility among NATO countries.
Yet voters perceive the substance of Trump’s remarks: only 11 NATO nations meet NATO defense funding commitments, with 24 others falling short, despite the war in Ukraine being at NATO’s doorstep. Are President Trump’s stances on international issues in step with American sentiment?
Teflon Don
NPR reported that Republicans were playing “Clean Up on Aisle Trump,” in the wake of the former president’s comments. Yet The Media Intelligence Group, which analyzes social media data to provide AI-driven public sentiment insights, finds that Americans see nothing to clean up at all.
Nationally, Trump’s approval hasn’t budged since his NATO comments, standing at 47% in the seven days prior to his South Carolina rally and holding fast at 47% the following week.
Trump's ratings remained close to Biden's on issues relevant to NATO. Biden holds 47% to 46% for Trump on approval in online debates involving Ukraine, while Biden scores 48% on national security issues to Trump’s 46%.
Meanwhile the onslaught of negative press had no effect on Trump’s overall approval ratings.
Since the rally, Trump's ratings remain close to Biden's on NATO-specific discussions as well. Both Trump and Biden hold 47% approval in online debates involving Russia, while Biden scores 48% on National Security issues to Trump’s 47%. However, Biden faces difficulty in swing states over NATO and security issues.
Stronger Where it Counts, Swing States
Critically, within five days of Trump’s South Carolina rally, Trump retained his lead over Biden in head-to-head support in a majority of key swing states, indicating Trump may be in touch with voters in those states:
- AZ: Trump 48%, Biden 43%
- NV: Trump 48%, Biden 41%
- PA: Trump 47%, Biden 44%
- GA: Trump 47%, Biden 43%
- WI: Trump 44%, Biden 46%
Note: Includes independent candidate RFK Jr., sample size minimum of 1,000 respondents per candidate in each state.
Meanwhile, sentiment over the last seven days in Arizona, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania showed Biden trending down 3% on national security issues. Biden dipped to 40% compared to Trump’s 43%.
Biden remained only marginally higher on Russia, tracking at 45% to Trump’s 43%, a surprisingly close divide on a topic establishment media has sought to frame as an absolute negative for Trump since 2016. Meanwhile, Biden is losing his grip on Ukraine in swing state favorability, where Trump holds 44% approval to Biden’s 41%.
Forging Ahead
The episode typifies the political pattern that has emerged since Trump entered the political arena. Trump built a coalition confronting an entrenched Washington establishment, which in turn has attempted to characterize challenges to its agenda as a five-alarm fire. But is there a crisis? Americans outside the Beltway apparently either align with Trump’s America First outlook or reject media and establishment crisis narratives.
Swing state voters are instead weighing whether America’s security alliances benefit Americans. With the election nine months away, Trump remains in a dominant position, with opposition still struggling to crack the MAGA code.
16
Feb
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As speculation grows about who might be President Trump's potential running mate in the next election, online discussions reflect a diverse range of sentiments towards various candidates. Among the potential vice presidential picks, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, and RFK Jr. have emerged as notable contenders. However, the online discourse reveals a mixture of positive and negative opinions surrounding these individuals.
Discussion Snapshot
Vivek Ramaswamy dominates online discussions. Supporters praise his intelligence, well-thought-out plans, and alignment with the 'America First' agenda. However, concerns about his loyalty to Trump and the 'MAGA' movement also emerge, creating a split in public opinion.
Elise Stefanik is consistently the 2nd most talked about candidate. Elise is viewed negatively by some and many have expressed doubt about her chances of being selected as VP.
Tucker Carlson has spiked in mentions following his controversial interview with Vladimir Putin. His qualifications for VP are frequently questioned.
Support Score
Vivek Ramaswamy: Mixed Reviews on a Potential Trump Running Mate
Vivek Ramaswamy emerges as a candidate with mostly positive sentiments among online users. Supporters express excitement and view him as a valuable asset, praising his intelligence and well-thought-out plans. However, detractors argue that he may not be ready for the VP position, with some questioning his loyalty to the MAGA agenda. The division in opinions suggests that while Vivek has a base of supporters, concerns about his readiness for the role remain.
Elise Stefanik: A Sellout or a Potential VP?
Elise Stefanik, on the other hand, faces predominantly negative sentiments. Labeled as a sellout to Donald Trump, online users question her qualities outside of her support for Israel and cast doubt on her chances of being chosen as Trump's VP. The online community appears skeptical of Stefanik's credibility as a potential running mate.
Tucker Carlson: Doubts on Qualifications for VP
Despite not being a candidate, Tucker Carlson's name surfaces in discussions, with users questioning his qualifications for the VP role. One user comments on his journalistic background, emphasizing that it doesn't automatically qualify him for the position. The sentiment suggests skepticism about the idea of Carlson as a potential VP.
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis: Mixed Opinions
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both elicit mixed sentiments. While some users propose that Haley should work with Democrats for a compromise ticket, there's no strong support for her as a VP candidate. DeSantis, on the other hand, receives indications of support, with users suggesting they would vote for Trump if he chooses DeSantis. However, doubts linger, with some users considering alternatives if DeSantis is not selected as the VP.
Kristi Noem: A Potential Trailblazer with Positive Support
Kristi Noem emerges as a potential favorite among online discussions. Users express strong support for her as Trump's VP, even envisioning her as the first female US President. Noem's positive reception indicates that she resonates well with online communities, positioning her as a potential trailblazer.
JD Vance: Mixed Sentiments and Criticism
JD Vance receives both positive and negative sentiments. Supporters see him as meeting all the requirements for Trump's VP, praising his loyalty, brilliance, toughness, energy, and patriotism. However, critics label him as someone willing to say anything to become VP.
Conclusion
As the online discussions unfold, it is evident that there is no definitive front-runner among the potential vice presidential nominees for President Trump. Mixed opinions surround each candidate, reflecting the complexities of choosing a running mate who can unite Trump's base. While some candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Kristi Noem enjoy positive sentiments, doubts persist about their suitability for the role. As discussions continue to evolve, it remains uncertain which candidate will ultimately garner the most support and become the favored choice for Vice President in the eyes of the public.
14
Feb
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New Hampshire - What Happened
The New Hampshire GOP primary demonstrated a clear victory for Donald Trump, with his total votes exceeding the entire vote count of the 2016 primary.
Trump's overwhelming victory can be attributed to his strong ground effort and appeal among registered GOP voters. He won 74% of the registered GOP vote, demonstrating his enduring popularity within the Republican party. Conversely, Haley's campaign impressed with independents, winning 65% of their support. This suggests that Haley's message appeals to a broader base, potentially including some Democrats.While it's hard to ascertain from the data provided whether Democrats were supporting Haley, her strong performance among independents suggests some cross-over appeal. Similarly, it's unclear which candidate attracted libertarian voters, but Trump's strong showing among registered GOP voters suggests he may have been their preferred choice.
What Was On The Ballot?
Without specific polling data on the top issues for Trump and Haley voters, it is difficult to determine what their key priorities were. However, given Trump's past campaigns and his base of support, it is reasonable to guess that issues like immigration, trade, and a strong economy were likely important to his supporters. Haley's supporters, on the other hand, may have been more attracted to her international experience and more traditional conservative stances.
It’s also worth noting that some comments suggest a portion of Libertarian voters might have supported Trump over Haley. This is indicative of Trump’s appeal to anti-establishment voters who prioritize issues such as individual liberties and small government, which are hallmarks of Libertarian ideology. The top three issues appear to be:
Trump
- Anti-establishment
- More conservative governance
- America-first policies
Haley
- Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment
- Traditional GOP
- Challenging Trump’s control
However, there is a growing call among some voters for Haley to drop out of the primary. The argument is that the money being spent on her campaign could be better utilized in other crucial races, such as those for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, or gubernatorial seats. Trump is running unopposed in the Nevada Caucus and presumed to win all 26 delegates.
Nevada - What’s Next
Donald Trump's campaign has been marked by significant successes, making him the first non-sitting Republican candidate to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign has effectively mobilized his base and resonated with voters, resulting in tangible victories. Nikki Haley's campaign appears to be facing challenges, despite a surge of Democratic votes in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. This perception of Haley as a 'swamp shill', as reflected in public sentiments, has also been detrimental to her campaign.
Trump vs Haley (Nevada)
How Do Voters See It?
Negative sentiments surrounding Haley's campaign have been increasing, with many believing that she has little chance of beating Trump and that her continued presence in the race is damaging to the GOP. These sentiments are further fueled by the belief that she will likely lose the primary in South Carolina, her home state.
In contrast, Trump's campaign is surrounded by mostly positive themes, with supporters praising his leadership and his potential to secure a landslide victory. Despite some criticisms about his focus on loyalty, his support levels seem to be consistently high.Raising Trump support
- Strong leadership
- America-first policies
- Electability in November
Lowering Trump support
- Threat of potential indictments
- Perceived shift from traditional GOP values
Raising Haley support
- Fresh start in the GOP
Lowering Haley support
- Endorsing candidates against Trump
- Divisiveness within the party, Democrat in disguise
- Refusal to drop out
24
Jan
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The New Hampshire GOP primary is garnering significant attention with key players including former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis seems to have contributed to Trump's edge in the race. Recent polling identifies Donald Trump receiving around 50% support, while MIG reporting is currently at 59%
Heading into the vote, Trump seems to have the support of the conservative base of the Republican party, while Haley seems to be the preferred choice for moderate Republicans and those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. There is also a significant percentage of the population open to a third-party candidate, as indicated by the readiness of the No Labels Unity Party to put forth a candidate if Haley does not get the GOP nomination.
Donald Trump's campaign appears to be gathering momentum, after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Many have speculated that this endorsement may cement Trump's standing in the race. The endorsement was hinted at by Rep. Matt Gaetz during a Trump event in Manchester, NH, which has generated much chatter in the political circuit.
On the other hand, Nikki Haley's campaign has been characterized by a mix of support and criticism. Haley, a self-proclaimed globalist, has been criticized for her association with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and their Agenda 2030, which some fear could massively limit personal freedoms. Her endorsement by Asa Hutchinson has also led to accusations that she is backed by elites.
Top Ten Discussions
- The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis.
- The perceived bias in certain polls favoring Haley
- The controversial tactics employed by MAGA extremists.
- The potential of a third-party candidate by the No Labels Unity Party.
- The public sentiment towards each candidate.
- The potential of Haley beating Biden in the general election.
- The divide among Republican voters.
- Trump and Biden's close competition within the margin of error in some polls.
- The possibility of a Biden/Trump rematch in the upcoming election.
- The speculation about the potential failure of either Trump or Biden in certain areas.
22
Jan
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Trump's recent historical win in Iowa seems to have bolstered his support in New Hampshire as well, with many staunch Republicans backing him as the only viable candidate who can beat President Biden in the general election. There's a strong sentiment among these supporters that Trump is the true defender of the American Constitution and the values it represents. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley have distinct campaign narratives and differing levels of support, which have been shaped by various factors, including their performances in the Iowa Caucus and the endorsement of Trump by Vivek Ramaswamy. Interestingly, there’s continued conversation of final weeks’ campaign spending and effect in the Iowa caucus.
- Trump’s campaign spent $3.5 million on advertising, securing 54,783 votes, which translates to $63.88 per vote. This efficient campaign spending demonstrates Trump's enduring popularity within the party.
- Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, spent $6.1 million for 22,803 votes in the Iowa Caucus, equating to $268 per vote.
- Nikki Haley’s campaign spent a significant $7.8 million in the Iowa Caucus to secure 20,446 votes, equating to $381.49 per vote.
Looking back at the results from the Iowa caucus, we see a trend of strong support for anti-establishment figures. If this sentiment carries over into New Hampshire, it could benefit Trump, who has long positioned himself as an outsider fighting against the "establishment." Trump’s support received an overnight bump of approximately 7% and is back to over 50%, mirroring his results of the Iowa Caucus. DeSantis, with his strong stance on state rights versus federal overreach, could also capitalize on this sentiment. Haley, however, may struggle if the New Hampshire electorate continues to lean anti-establishment.
What’s On The Ballot?
Online sentiment in New Hampshire indicates several topics which either increases support for Trump or decreases support for Haley, DeSantis:
- Globalism, Trade, and Foreign Relations - negatively impacting Haley due to perceived support for the World Economic Forum's Agenda 2030 and soft on China.
- Immigration - Online discussions suggest that immigration might be a key issue for voters, which may favor Trump more despite perception of Haley's toughness on the border,
- Candidate Credibility - Voters appear to be assessing the candidates on their perceived ability to effectively lead and manage the nation, as evident in the criticism of Haley and DeSantis.
- Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment Sentiment - For some voters, their support for Haley seems to be driven more by their dislike for Trump than their liking for Haley.
- Evangelicals & Non-College Educated - Haley's lack of appeal to this demographic and Ramaswamy's appeal to this group suggests that their concerns and preferences are shaping the race.
- Political strategies - Voters are attentive to each candidate's strategy, as shown by the commentary on Haley's decision not to participate in the debates unless Trump does.
Specific issues may vary between states and individuals, but there is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change among the GOP primary voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similar to the Iowa voters, there is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change in the government. This is evidenced by the call for a strong candidate who can defeat Biden and the concerns about election integrity.
Trump’s dominant win in Iowa has set a high bar, while DeSantis and Haley are offering distinct alternatives to Trump's style and politics. In a curious twist, some Democrats are reportedly willing to caucus for Haley if it boosts her chances against Trump, even though they plan to vote for Biden in the general election. This underlines the complexity of the political landscape and the high stakes of this election. It also demonstrates the level of opposition to a potential Trump nomination within sections of both the Democratic and Republican electorate.
Candidate Approval - Trump Alone Above 50%
The criticism of both Haley and DeSantis for representing "same old" politics suggests that there may be a desire for a more non-traditional candidate. New Hampshire’s primary is shaping up to be a closely contested race. Trump's strong, albeit divisive, support base, DeSantis's as-yet unclear position, and Haley's potential appeal to cross-party voters could all impact the eventual outcome.
- Nikki Haley, despite underperforming in the Iowa caucus, seems to have a unique appeal, especially among Democrats who seem to prefer her over President Biden. Her campaign has focused on her electability, with canvassers in New Hampshire emphasizing her potential to defeat Biden in a general election. However, there are also voters who have expressed strong opposition to her, using the hashtag #NeverNikki, suggesting a divided public sentiment towards her candidacy.
16
Jan