The New Hampshire GOP primary is garnering significant attention with key players including former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis seems to have contributed to Trump's edge in the race. Recent polling identifies Donald Trump receiving around 50% support, while MIG reporting is currently at 59%
Heading into the vote, Trump seems to have the support of the conservative base of the Republican party, while Haley seems to be the preferred choice for moderate Republicans and those dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden. There is also a significant percentage of the population open to a third-party candidate, as indicated by the readiness of the No Labels Unity Party to put forth a candidate if Haley does not get the GOP nomination.
Donald Trump's campaign appears to be gathering momentum, after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump. Many have speculated that this endorsement may cement Trump's standing in the race. The endorsement was hinted at by Rep. Matt Gaetz during a Trump event in Manchester, NH, which has generated much chatter in the political circuit.
On the other hand, Nikki Haley's campaign has been characterized by a mix of support and criticism. Haley, a self-proclaimed globalist, has been criticized for her association with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and their Agenda 2030, which some fear could massively limit personal freedoms. Her endorsement by Asa Hutchinson has also led to accusations that she is backed by elites.
Top Ten Discussions
The endorsement of Trump by Ron DeSantis.
The perceived bias in certain polls favoring Haley
The controversial tactics employed by MAGA extremists.
The potential of a third-party candidate by the No Labels Unity Party.
The public sentiment towards each candidate.
The potential of Haley beating Biden in the general election.
The divide among Republican voters.
Trump and Biden's close competition within the margin of error in some polls.
The possibility of a Biden/Trump rematch in the upcoming election.
The speculation about the potential failure of either Trump or Biden in certain areas.
Trump's recent historical win in Iowa seems to have bolstered his support in New Hampshire as well, with many staunch Republicans backing him as the only viable candidate who can beat President Biden in the general election. There's a strong sentiment among these supporters that Trump is the true defender of the American Constitution and the values it represents. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley have distinct campaign narratives and differing levels of support, which have been shaped by various factors, including their performances in the Iowa Caucus and the endorsement of Trump by Vivek Ramaswamy. Interestingly, there’s continued conversation of final weeks’ campaign spending and effect in the Iowa caucus.
Trump’s campaign spent $3.5 million on advertising, securing 54,783 votes, which translates to $63.88 per vote. This efficient campaign spending demonstrates Trump's enduring popularity within the party.
Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, spent $6.1 million for 22,803 votes in the Iowa Caucus, equating to $268 per vote.
Nikki Haley’s campaign spent a significant $7.8 million in the Iowa Caucus to secure 20,446 votes, equating to $381.49 per vote.
Looking back at the results from the Iowa caucus, we see a trend of strong support for anti-establishment figures. If this sentiment carries over into New Hampshire, it could benefit Trump, who has long positioned himself as an outsider fighting against the "establishment." Trump’s support received an overnight bump of approximately 7% and is back to over 50%, mirroring his results of the Iowa Caucus. DeSantis, with his strong stance on state rights versus federal overreach, could also capitalize on this sentiment. Haley, however, may struggle if the New Hampshire electorate continues to lean anti-establishment.
What’s On The Ballot?
Online sentiment in New Hampshire indicates several topics which either increases support for Trump or decreases support for Haley, DeSantis:
Globalism, Trade, and Foreign Relations - negatively impacting Haley due to perceived support for the World Economic Forum's Agenda 2030 and soft on China.
Immigration - Online discussions suggest that immigration might be a key issue for voters, which may favor Trump more despite perception of Haley's toughness on the border,
Candidate Credibility - Voters appear to be assessing the candidates on their perceived ability to effectively lead and manage the nation, as evident in the criticism of Haley and DeSantis.
Anti-Trump, Pro-EstablishmentSentiment - For some voters, their support for Haley seems to be driven more by their dislike for Trump than their liking for Haley.
Evangelicals & Non-College Educated - Haley's lack of appeal to this demographic and Ramaswamy's appeal to this group suggests that their concerns and preferences are shaping the race.
Political strategies - Voters are attentive to each candidate's strategy, as shown by the commentary on Haley's decision not to participate in the debates unless Trump does.
Specific issues may vary between states and individuals, but there is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change among the GOP primary voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similar to the Iowa voters, there is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change in the government. This is evidenced by the call for a strong candidate who can defeat Biden and the concerns about election integrity.
Trump’s dominant win in Iowa has set a high bar, while DeSantis and Haley are offering distinct alternatives to Trump's style and politics. In a curious twist, some Democrats are reportedly willing to caucus for Haley if it boosts her chances against Trump, even though they plan to vote for Biden in the general election. This underlines the complexity of the political landscape and the high stakes of this election. It also demonstrates the level of opposition to a potential Trump nomination within sections of both the Democratic and Republican electorate.
Candidate Approval - Trump Alone Above 50%
The criticism of both Haley and DeSantis for representing "same old" politics suggests that there may be a desire for a more non-traditional candidate. New Hampshire’s primary is shaping up to be a closely contested race. Trump's strong, albeit divisive, support base, DeSantis's as-yet unclear position, and Haley's potential appeal to cross-party voters could all impact the eventual outcome.
Nikki Haley, despite underperforming in the Iowa caucus, seems to have a unique appeal, especially among Democrats who seem to prefer her over President Biden. Her campaign has focused on her electability, with canvassers in New Hampshire emphasizing her potential to defeat Biden in a general election. However, there are also voters who have expressed strong opposition to her, using the hashtag #NeverNikki, suggesting a divided public sentiment towards her candidacy.
Recent MIG data shows that the discussion on the Israel-Hamas war appears to have a mix of both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine comments on platforms like X (formerly Twitter). However, the majority of hashtagged comments tend to lean more towards pro-Palestine sentiments.
On TikTok, pro-Palestine hashtags vastly outweigh pro-Israel hashtags in a way that is inconsistent with other social platforms across the internet. This discrepancy suggests that pro-Palestine content on TikTok may not be completely organic.
In addition, discussion about the Israel-Hamas conflict significantly increased on social media following the October 7 attack. Prior to the 7th, posts about Israel and Palestine on both X and TikTok were negligible and posts and views dramatically increased from October 7 on.
Posts Before and After October 7
Average daily posts on X 15 days before and after October 7
Posts using the hashtag #israel reached a high of 251,331 on X on October 7.
Posts using the hashtag #palestine reached a high of 136,498 on X on October 7.
Posts using the hashtag #israel reached a high of 181,500 on TikTok on October 7.
Posts using the hashtag #palestine reached a high of 403,872 on TikTok on October 14.
Pro-Palestine and Pro-Israel Hashtags
Since October 6, 2023, interest levels in pro-Palestine hashtags (#palestine and #freepalestine) have skyrocketed.
Based on total post counts and TikTok’s proprietary interest score, pro-Palestine posts reached a high of nearly 1 million between October 14-20, 2023.
In contrast, pro-Israel hashtags on TikTok only reached a high of just over 113,000 between October 7-13, 2023.
Pro-Palestine content on TikTok vastly outweighs pro-Israel content. Since October 6, there were a total of 10 times as many pro-Palestine hashtags on TikTok as pro-Israel hashtags.
On X, pro-Israel and pro-Palestine hashtags are much closer in volume. Tracking the hashtags #israel, #standwithisrael, #palestine, and #freepalestine, MIG data shows divided discussions.
At the end of October, pro-Palestine hashtags on X reached a high of approximately 250,000.
Pro-Israel hashtags on X reached a high of approximately 83,000 at the beginning of November.
Pro-Palestine content on X outweighs pro-Israel content, but only by less than double since the end of October.
What People Are Saying
Based on the content of the analyzed discussions online, it is apparent that the comments heavily favor Palestine.
Palestine
There is a high usage of hashtags such as #FreePalestine, #Gaza_Genocide, and #IsraelisGenocidalState, which indicates strong criticism of Israel.
Pro-Palestine comments often criticize Israel's actions and policies, accuse Israel of human rights violations, and express sympathy for the Palestinians.
They also call for a halt to Israel's occupation and the recognition of Palestine's statehood.
These comments also tend to criticize U.S. politicians and policies that support Israel, and call for solidarity movements for Palestine.
Israel
Pro-Israel comments, on the other hand, often criticize Hamas and accuse them of terrorist activities.
They argue that Israel has a right to defend itself against Hamas' attacks, and some even call for the complete elimination of Hamas.
These comments also often express concern for Israeli hostages and criticize the UN and U.S. politicians for their perceived support of Hamas.
Potentially Biased Content
The implications of MIG data raise concerns about the potential skewing or bias of content, especially on TikTok.
Some commentors online suggest TikTok might be purposefully promoting or suppressing certain narratives, possibly as a result of commercial pressures or political influences.
For example, Elon Musk's reaction to advertisers allegedly trying to influence X content raises questions about the potential for corporate or government influence over the dissemination of information on all social platforms.
However, it is challenging to definitively determine whether the content is purposefully skewed, based on public comments alone.
While the discussions suggest possible bias or skewing, they also reflect users' individual perceptions, which may be influenced by various factors.
Further research would be required to definitively establish the extent and nature of any potential skewing of content on TikTok.
The online discourse about climate change appears to be diverse and polarized across various platforms. Some voices emphasizing the urgent need for action and others dismissing climate change as a hoax or scam.
Public Opinion
Public discourse seems divided into two main camps: climate change believers and skeptics.
Believers, often citing scientific studies and reports, argue for urgent action to mitigate the impacts of climate change. They often discuss the need for clean energy, carbon sequestration, and other technological solutions.
Skeptics question the reality of climate change and often accuse governments and elites of using the climate change narrative to exert control over the populace. They frequently cite historical climate changes to argue that current changes are part of a natural cycle.
In the USA overall, average sentiment scores for topics related to climate change is 48%. However, in several key swing states, sentiment towards climate change dips below the national average.
A significant portion of the public remains skeptical of climate change projections, often citing the perceived hypocrisy of elites on the subject.
This skepticism is further fueled by media outlets and personalities who question the science behind climate change and criticize the perceived alarmism of environmentalists.
These are the top topics related to climate change being discussed by Republicans and Democrats.
Climate Change in the Media
The press often discusses climate change in terms of imminent environmental disaster. There is a significant emphasis on the need for immediate, comprehensive action to mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, the public discourse appears to be more divided.
The term "climate events" is often used by media to refer to specific incidents, such as extreme weather events or natural disasters, that are linked to climate change.
“Climate events” are often reported in the media with a sense of urgency and alarm. However, the public's reaction to these reports varies widely.
The term "environmentalism" is used to refer to the political and social movement promoting environmental protection and sustainability.
This framing of the issue resonates with many people, particularly those who identify as environmentalists or are concerned about the future of the planet.
Some people are deeply concerned about the impact of these events and see them as clear evidence of climate change,
Many skeptics question the link between these events and human-induced climate change, often pointing to historical climate variations as evidence that current trends are not necessarily abnormal or cause for alarm.
Perceived Hypocrisy by Elites
A significant subset of the discourse revolves around the perceived hypocrisy of elites, celebrities, and the wealthy.
Critics argue that these individuals preach about climate change while maintaining lifestyles that contribute significantly to carbon emissions.
This critique extends to billionaires and corporations, with some arguing that these entities bear a significant responsibility for climate change.
Many people argue that high-profile figures should lead by example and reduce their own carbon footprints if they are genuinely concerned about climate change.
The perceived gap between their words and actions has led to accusations of hypocrisy and has undermined public trust in their advocacy for environmental causes.
From the online discussions about the Argentine presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa, latest MIG data reflected
Significant increase in Ideologies, Int’l Affairs, and Security Issues
No major decreases across other topics
Ideologies may have been seen as the deciding factor in the late stages over Fiscal Policy
Ideologies
Agent of Change, Concern
Supporters excited for anti-woke, anti-left
Seen as beacon of freedom
Traditional rallying cry used online “Vive La Libetard” (long live freedom)
Some voters worry for return to neoliberal policies
Some voters also dissaprove of confrontational style
Of note, a sharp increase in sentiment (and volume) was only reflected concerning Milei on the day of the election.
Fiscal Policy
Less Discussed, But Less Disliked
Going back to October 31st, the average sentiment scores for Fiscal Policy were
Massa: 38
Milei: 42
Many commenters express criticism towards the previous leadership of Sergio Massa and Alberto Fernández, blaming them for high inflation, poverty, unemployment, security issues, and a significant deficit. Milei is seen as promising to lower inflation and fix the fiscal deficit. However, some commenters express concern about Milei's plans to privatize public companies like YPF, Télam, the Public TV, and National Radio.
General Election Analysis
Data appears to reflect a general tone, which is most voters sought a change in the status quo (economics, corruption).
MIG data indicating a Melei lead was accurate to the final vote tally
MIG reporting
Melei 53%
Massa 47%
Final vote
Melei 56%
Massa 44%
The overall view of Milei is mixed. Some comments express hope and congratulation, recognizing his victory and looking forward to the future under his leadership. There are also comments that seem to suggest his win was due to demagoguery and gained votes from traditional right-wing supporters and a high proportion of Schiaretti's supporters. Some express caution, stating that they hope Argentinians understand that the process under his leadership will be long.
Conclusion
For the final ten days, there was a near statistical tie in Talking About and Head-to-Head, prior to a clear break at the end
Talking About
Massa: 3351/day
Melei: 3328/day
Head-to-Head
Massa: 50%
Melei: 50%
The online discussions show a clear dissatisfaction toward Massa, many of the comments seeking change from the status quo pertaining to the economic conditions (inflation, poverty and unemployment rates), and for increasing the fiscal deficit.
They also accuse him of corruption and deception. Some comments suggest that if Massa wins, the situation will worsen.
Some users express support for Milei, blaming current economic problems on populist governments and expressing hope that Milei could bring about change.
e.g. proposed policies could reduce poverty and improve security
Others express concerns about Milei's plans, suggesting that they might lead to unemployment and other economic issues.
Melei is also accused of being associated with fascism, with some commenters express concerns about him allowing fascists to run rampant.
e.g. Some Melei supporters want to suppress freedom of expression.
Overall, the majority of comments seem to indicate a preference for Milei over Massa, driven primarily by dissatisfaction with the current economic situation they attribute to Massa's leadership.
Massa is criticized for his perceived hypocrisy such as his expensive Dolce & Gabbana jeans, which they view as contradictory to his image as a candidate who cares for the poor. They also criticize his supporters for protesting against insecurity, which they believe would only be a problem if Milei wins.
Milei on the other hand, is accused of being associated with fascism. Some commenters express concerns about him allowing fascists to run rampant. He is also criticized for having supporters who want to suppress freedom of expression.
Sergio Massa is viewed by some as using the state for his own benefit and the benefit of his friends. He is accused of not genuinely believing in social justice and using it as an argument to maintain his power. However, others express support for Massa, appreciating that he is not associated with certain ideologies or politics they disapprove of. There are also mentions of Massa receiving death threats and expressions of support in the face of such threats.
Javier Milei is seen by some as a champion of liberalism, with claims that he has done more for the people than any other politician by showing them a possible reality and encouraging hope. However, he also has critics who accuse him of not believing in democracy, the state, the nation, and social justice, and only believing in market freedom. Some criticize his proposals as a recipe for social and economic chaos. Others argue that Milei is not liberal but a right-wing conservative neoliberal, and fear a return to the neoliberal models of past presidents if he wins. However, Milei also has supporters who see him as the only candidate with plans to recover sovereignty and respect diverse lifestyles, and who believe that the future of Argentina is liberal.
Public Comments
🦁‼️ Los gorilas del mundo rendidos a los pies de Milei: los festejos de Bukele, Bolsonaro y Zelenski 👉 Vox, Elon Musk y Donald Trump también se sumaron a la victoria de La Libertad Avanza. (💣 Faltó Darth Vader)
La logica indica que Milei va a ser Zelensky y va a terminar mal, o va a ser Boris Johnson y se va a diluir en su extremismo. En ambos casos lo van a repudiar los mismos que lo votaron.
En este país no se habla de esto. No hablan los medios, no lo repiten 24hs como otras cosas. No lo ves en @c5n ni en @todonoticias día y noche. De esto no habla Massa, no habla Milei, ni Macri, Ni Larreta, Ni Alberto... La ciudad de Buenos Aires es sionista GAZA 💔
me van a fallar los de milei si ahora en el bunker no cantan "anda a ver a una bruja, anda a ver a un doctor que te saque del orto la pija del leon"
Pasen la data!.. igual es tristísimo ver a alguien tan preparado, que termine en una secta de delincuentes!😩😎 " SI GANA MILEI Quemó TODOS MIS LIBROS, TITULO DE HARDVARD Y MI TESIS DOCTORAL DE MAS DE 600 PAGINAS.." " YO CREO QUE NO VA OCURRIR..." (Atilio Boron) así dijo está eminencia, Politólogo y Sociólogo Ultrakirchnerista QUEREMOS SABER CUADO Y EN QUE LUGAR VA PRENDER LA HOGUERA
Gracias Rusa linda Ganó Milei, sumando casi la totalidad de votos de la derecha tradicional de JxC y una muy alta proporción de Schiaretti. Con demagogia, ganaron parte del voto popular, contra un gobierno donde los ricos se enriquecieron y perdieron los que trabajan, producto del pacto con el FMI.
JAJAJAJA Si gana Milei, solo ruego que los argentinos entiendan que el proceso es largo.
Vos no laburas y vivis del Estado, el FMI presta plata al 4 por ciento, quien la pidio es el peronismo, al que vos no nombras obviamente porque sos el vagon de cola eterno, la putita del fascismo, hija de puta Ganó Milei, sumando casi la totalidad de votos de la derecha tradicional de JxC y una muy alta proporción de Schiaretti. Con demagogia, ganaron parte del voto popular, contra un gobierno donde los ricos se enriquecieron y perdieron los que trabajan, producto del pacto con el FMI.
@SergioChouza @JMilei Tu pollo pide licencia y huye, pero seguiremos pagando su plan Platita que son 3 puntos del PBI y deja un déficit 2024 de -8% del PBI; similar al del 2020 cuando su gobierno que se va no nos dejaba trabajar y producir, REBIÉN NOS IBA PAYASO 🤡
A recent MIG report has found that many Americans have a general feeling of skepticism and lack of trust towards the government. This attitude is held among both Democrats and Republicans.
Many feel there is a deep state or establishment elite who operate by different rules than average citizens.
There’s a belief that the government, media, and certain elites are working together to control narratives and manipulate public opinion.
People accuse these entities of using their power to silence opposition and protect their own interests.
Daily Sentiment for the Top Discussion Topics
Trump and Discussion About a Weaponized Government
Trump remains a highly polarizing figure for both sides, often gaining mention in discussions about abuses of state power. This is true of both parties, whether they perceive Trump as misusing the state himself or having it used against him.
There is a perception that politicians on both sides of the aisle are not genuinely looking out for the interests of the public, but rather their own political agendas.
Vocal criticisms of Republicans who didn’t support Trump and Democrats who are seen as being overly focused on criticizing Trump.
There's a belief that the "deep state" or establishment is actively working to keep Trump out of power and that there's a double standard in how allegations against him and his team have been handled compared to others, including the Biden family.
There are calls for a thorough cleaning of the government to rid it of "deep state actors," with some suggesting that Trump should be the one to do this.
Skepticism Toward Government Agencies
Some people believe that government agencies, in particular the FBI and IRS, are being used as weapons against ordinary citizens.
Americans have concerns about tax enforcement and the handling of events such as the January 6th Capitol riots.
Some express frustration with the perceived lack of action from the GOP, accusing them of not doing enough to protect the 2020 election, build the wall, or defund organizations like the FBI and IRS.
There's a strong sentiment among the public about the lack of transparency and accountability in the government and judicial system.
Special Treatment for Elite Figures
People feel that those in power or with influence can get away with actions that would have severe consequences for average citizens.
There is a concern that high-profile figures, like Paul Manifort and Arnold Schwarzenegger, are treated differently by the justice system and media due to their status or political alignment.
Some discuss the 2024 election as a critical point for addressing these government-bias issues, with Trump seen as a potential solution to "clean up the Swamp."
Some suggest that the government is corrupt and that certain figures, like the Vindman brothers, are complicit in this corruption and are trying to outmaneuver the will of the people.
The Public’s View of the Media
There's mistrust towards the media, with some accusing it of being a mouthpiece for the "deep state" and focusing on trivial matters to distract from larger issues.
The COVID-19 pandemic is perceived to have exposed corruption in the government and media, as well as the extent of propaganda used to manipulate public emotions.
Accusations of hypocrisy among government and media figures.
What Americans are Saying
Overall, Americans feel they do not know what’s happening in the government dues to lack of transparency and lack of education.
Several comments suggested that people want to understand the workings of the government and justice system better.
Many people expressed a desire for change in the system. There are calls to ensure everyone, regardless of their status or influence, is treated equally by the justice system.
There’s a perception that each side feel more skepticism, depending on which party is in power. However, the data does not clearly indicate which party is more skeptical overall.
Many people feel disillusioned and cynical about government institutions.
There's a desire for more public involvement in government decision-making, including public meetings and debates, as well as mechanisms for public feedback and input.
TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, is under scrutiny for its impact on American society. A recent Media Intelligence Group report highlights concerns regarding the platform's association with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its influence on Americans.
The MIG report underlines a predominantly negative sentiment among Americans toward TikTok and its alignment with China.
The data suggests many Americans believe the platform may be fostering the spread of woke ideologies they call the “woke mind virus.”
Some believe leftist propaganda, particularly among younger generations, is shaping views on important issues like abortion, Ukraine, China, and Israel.
Americans are growing increasingly apprehensive about TikTok's potential to influence political views, shaping public opinion that contradicts Western and American values.
Overall sentiment toward China in the last two weeks has hovered in the mid to low 40% range.
What Americans are Saying
MIG data reveals that Americans have multiple concerns about TikTok and China influence.
TikTok Concerns
There are overall concerns about TikTok being controlled by a Chinese company and potentially being influenced by the CCP.
Belief that TikTok’s ubiquity was intentional in the CCP’s strategic economic and ideological competition with America.
There is a general sentiment that 'woke' culture and leftist ideologies are being spread and propagated by TikTok.
Belief that Gen Z are particularly at risk of influence by social platforms like TikTok.
Some express concern that TikTok could be playing a role in shaping perceptions specifically in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Concerns about the CCP's potential to economically and financially ruin the West.
Fears of further infiltration, influence, and the propagation of ideologies that are seen as detrimental to American values.
Bipartisan Agreement About TikTok Propaganda
In recent comments, former president Obama expressed concerns that TikTok influencers were shaping perceptions about the Israel conflict saying, “The problem with the social media and trying — TikTok activism, and trying to debate this on that — is you can’t speak the truth.”
Republicans seem to agree with the sentiment that TikTok activism is largely negative.
But while Democrats and Republicans agree that misinformation and propaganda are an issue, they disagree about which narratives and ideologies are untrue.
The data suggestions many Americans believe Democrats are not consistent in their foreign policy, particularly with regards to Ukraine and Israel.
Those on the right are quite negative toward Democrats, accusing them of hypocrisy, spreading the "woke mind virus," and being responsible for societal problems.
Left-leaning Americans, however, say Republicans are spreading oppression by supporting Israel in an ethnic cleansing operation and killing many civilians.
In the last two weeks, online sentiment toward Israel was low, dipping below 40% on most days with a low of 37%. Some commenters express concern that online ideological influence is a key driver of overall sentiment toward Israel.
Possible Congressional Investigations
Concerns about TikTok's role in shaping public perceptions have been highlighted by the ongoing discussions of international conflicts, especially Israel and Hamas.
This negative perception of TikTok, in connection with the CCP, has raised calls for congressional investigations.
The potential for congressional investigations would likely intensify apprehensions and may significantly affect the platform's reputation and public perception.
Overall Media Influence
In addition to negative views of social platforms like TikTok, there are also negative sentiments toward media in general, including news and online platforms.
Pro-Palestine Activists
Many pro-Palestine activists feel the wider media, outside of TikTok, is not accurately portraying the Israel situation, but instead favoring Israel.
Activists involved in online discussions regarding the #freepalestine movement accuse the media of failing to report on what they believe to be atrocities and war crimes.
They also suggest that the media is suppressing the voices of Palestinians and their supporters.
Many are critical of the US government, accusing it of complicity due to its financial aid to Israel.
Conservative Censorship Complaints
On the right, there is frustration with perceived bias in mainstream media coverage that unfairly vilifies Israel.
There is a sense of dissatisfaction with the media, with some people accusing it of being a mouthpiece for leftist political ideologies.
Many conservatives argue that big tech platforms and media organizations censor right-leaning ideologies.
There is a perceived lack of coverage on issues like the origins Covid-19 and the role of the CCP in global affairs.
A common thread in the discussion on both sides is the notion of 'the other side' controlling the narrative.
A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence to monitor and database the support and sentiment of candidates, adds to growing evidence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s potency in a general presidential election.
Analyzing online discussions of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and RFK Jr, MIG’s report averaged positive and negative comments to determine support for all three candidates and found that RFK Jr. secured 23% support across 7 states (Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Texas).
Recall that…
When Kennedy was still running in the Democratic primary, Kennedy found sanctuary in Republican media. Eager to compound Biden's cratering popularity amongst Democrats, Republicans amplified Kennedy's message. They even selected the Democrat scion as a witness to testify before the House subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, which garnered 2 million views on YouTube.
Shifting gears..
Kennedy declared on October 9th that he was dropping his bid for Democratic presidential nominee, and would run as an Independent. Republicans quickly pounced, with Trump spokesman Steven Cheung telling CNN, “The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions.”
Indicators and Warnings…
Last month, polling from USA Today/Suffolk showed Kennedy earning 13% of the vote in a three way match up between him, Biden, and Trump.
In a troubling sign for the Trump campaign, voters that said they would otherwise support the Republican nominee backed Kennedy 2 to 1 over those that said they would vote for the Democratic nominee without the option of Kennedy as a third party candidate.
Adding to growing Republican fears of a spoiler candidate, campaign finance records show that former Trump donors are giving to Kennedy at a higher rate than Democrat donors are.
Zooming in…
The 2024 election already shows signs of being as razor-thin as the previous presidential election, making Kennedy poised to potentially be the most impactful third-party candidate since Ross Perot.
MIG’s report finds that Kennedy garners nearly 30% support in Nevada, where Biden beat Trump by just 3% in 2020.
While Florida has been considered less and less of a battleground state since Republicans’ double digit victories in the 2022 midterms, Trump won Florida by just 3.36% in 2020. MIG’s report shows Kennedy securing 29% support amongst Florida voters who will likely already be primed to resonate with Kennedy’s criticisms of pandemic overreach after re-electing Ron DeSantis as Governor by a 19 point margin in 2022.
Yes, but..
Kennedy has also shown prowess in cutting into the Democratic voter base as well, with Quinnipiac’s latest poll finding Kennedy securing 38% support amongst 18-34 year olds, while Biden secured 32% amongst Gen Z and Millennials.
In the same poll, Kennedy and Biden have razor thin margins amongst Hispanics, with Kennedy garnering 33% of the vote to Biden’s 36%. Biden has a wider share of support with black voters, but Kennedy showed strength here too with 24% support to Biden’s 61%.
Though Kennedy faces steep obstacles to breaking through America’s polarized two-party system, mounting evidence of a close 2024 election and Kennedy’s growing popularity with disillusioned independents makes writing off Kennedy's impact foolish.
A growing rift has emerged among Democrats over the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, according to a new Media Intelligence Report.
Overall online sentiment toward Israel and Hamas has been split over the past week at 38% and 36% respectively.
However, among Democrats, sentiment has been more evenly divided between Israel and Hamas
at 45% each.
These sentiment indicators highlight growing ideological differences between factions in the Democrat party.
The Dividing Line for Dems
The MIG report identified a generational divide, with younger Democrats generally more critical of Israel than older members who emphasize Israel's security needs.
Moderate Democrats urged a balanced approach, condemning Hamas while addressing Gaza's humanitarian plight.
Some old-school Democrats decry what they see as a shocking increase in antisemitism among college students and far-left Democrats.
These divisions are causing a rare crack in the normally unified Democrat front.
What Democrats Are Saying
Historically, Democrats tend to move in lockstep, coalescing around a common principle or ideology that drives progressive policy. That is not the case when it comes to Israel.
Support for Israel Among Democrats
Some Democrats defend Israel's military actions as necessary self-defense against Hamas. They argue that Israel is responding to aggression and criticize Hamas for using civilians as human shields.
Among these Democrats, there is support for Biden’s $14.5 billion in military aid for Israel, without humanitarian assistance for Gaza.
Many view Hamas’ actions on October 7 as a “vile atrocity” that requires immediate response.
Overall, many older and more moderate Democrats seem to be inclined to support Israel compared to younger, extremely progressive Democrats.
Many in the Jewish community argue that pro-Palestine protestors misunderstand the threat from Hamas and overly simplify the complex history.
Pro-Palestine Democrats
In contrast, many younger Democrats accuse Israel of war crimes and "genocide" in Gaza. The far left celebrated the terror attack, refused to condemn it, or suggested Israel bears responsibility.
They call for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel and an immediate ceasefire.
Recent pro-Palestine protests in Washington DC, suggest a growing sentiment in support of Palestine.
These individuals argue that Palestinians are being disproportionately targeted and suffer more casualties compared to Israeli civilians.
Protestors demand the Biden administration take a firmer pro-Palestine stance.
Some demand steps be taken to hold Israeli leadership accountable for alleged atrocities. Many protesters also express support for the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.
Other Takeaways
Overall, there seems to be a division over what constitutes antisemitism. Some say criticism of Israel equates antisemitism.
Others argue that animosity towards Israel is growing, worsening antisemitism.
Meanwhile, others argue criticism is not inherently antisemitic.
In sum, the discourse reveals deep divisions not only between different political and ideological groups, but also within them.
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