In last night’s Michigan primaries, Donald Trump and Joe Biden each triumphed within their respective primary contests, but several key factors spell trouble for Biden’s re-election odds in the crucial swing state.

Trump garnered 138,000 more votes in the Republican contest than Biden's final tally in the Democratic primary. Worse for the 81-year-old President, pro-Palestinian efforts to lodge a protest vote under "Uncommitted" received more than 100,000 votes. While many in the mainstream media have scrambled to either downplay or outright deny a red light flashing moment for Biden, the uncommitted vote came just 54,000 away from Joe Biden’s margin of victory in Michigan in 2020.

Media Intelligence Group’s analysis of online discourse surrounding Trump and Biden in the Great Lakes State finds that Biden is indeed in serious trouble, with Trump poised to make perhaps one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. political history.

Dark Cloud Follows Biden Online

MIG’s analysis of online discourse directed at Biden by Michiganders finds a theme of doubt about Biden’s ability to serve as commander in chief and the Democratic nominee headed into November:

• Before uncommitted’s strong showing, MIG found, “users believe Biden could lose the primary due to dissatisfaction among certain voter groups.” And many users referring to him as "Genocide Joe.”
  
• Others highlight Biden’s age and acuity, a subject under increased scrutiny since the damning Hurr report dropped in early February. “There are discussions about Biden's ability to deliver the State of the Union address, with some questioning his mental fitness.” Some “suggest that Biden's lifespan could be a concern, questioning the wisdom of voting for him.”
  
• MIG found he still has ardent supporters, despite the chaos following Biden. “Some feel Biden and Kamala Harris will fight for them and plan to vote for them” in 2024.

Boiling Anger

Analysis of online discourse from Trump supporters in Michigan finds a theme of anger over both the past and the present that could motivate them to push Trump over the finish line in 2024.

• MIG’s analysis picks up discourse centering on the 2020 election results including, “allegations of election fraud,” and “users suggesting that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.”

Others are enraged at the current state of America under Biden, demanding immediate action before November.

• Frequently, Republicans lean into removing Biden now, with online comments “demanding the impeachment of Biden.”
  
• Biden’s weakest point and highest policy priority among a plurality of Americans, immigration, generates anger tooMIG found, “frustration with Biden's immigration policy, and accusations of him allowing an influx of undocumented immigrants into the country.”
  
• Others focus on increasingly tragic human stories of Biden’s immigration policy. “There are multiple references to an incident involving the slaughter of Laken Riley, with users accusing Biden of complicity.”
  
• Despite Biden defenders in mainstream media portending the economy is in great shape, Michiganders remain unconvinced of Bidenomics success and, “express dissatisfaction with his economic policies.”

While anger is a serious theme found in discourse by Trump supporters in Michigan, hope drives support for Trump’s re-election as well.

• Pro-Trump Michigan discourse finds many viewing his return as a solution to global chaos, voicing that, "If Trump had won a second term, he would have taken stronger action against China.” And their desire for him, “to be elected in 2024 and end wars.”
  
• Democrats remain critical of the former President, with some suggesting that, “Trump is pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.”
  

By the Numbers

With just nine months until election day, MIG’s analysis of head-to-head support online between Joe Biden and Donald Trump spells a tight final vote count in November.

• Today, Trump leads Biden 47% to 44% in Michigan, with RFK Jr. taking 9% of support.

Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - February 28

• Over the last 14 days, Biden’s lead in support versus Trump has crumbled, falling from an average of 50% to Trump’s 43% between February 15 and 21,to Trump capturing an average of 46% support to Biden’s 44% between February 22 and 29.

Michigan Head-to-Head Support Analysis - last 14 days

• MIG’s analysisduring this period finds that Trump does not necessarily dominate Biden by garnering more positive indications of support. In fact, in individual candidate analysis, each held 45% approval between Febraury 15 and 21, when Biden’s support began to give way to Trump.
  
• What makes the difference is disparity in the volume of negativity directed at each candidate. Biden earned more negative than positive comments on Frebruary 17 and 18, and his support fell by7% against Trump.
  
• During this time frame, Biden’s ratio of positive comments to negative comments found the incumbent at -149, with Trump lower at -139. This implies a conclusion that Biden’s ultimate weakness in Michigan isn’t voters liking Trump more, but their anger towards Biden is stronger than dislike for Trump.

Looking Ahead

What is unfolding in Michigan spells potential disaster in a must-win state for Biden. Despite being thousands of miles from the border, MIG’s data shows that all states are increasingly focusing on immigration, coming to grips with the reality that every state is a border state in Joe Biden’s America.

It is nearly impossible for the Biden campaign to celebrate winning Michigan with so many cracks being revealed in the President’s 2020 winning strategy. Crucial minority groups essential to winning Democrat coalitions are fraying, evidenced by the substantial "Uncommitted" protest turnout. Democrats almost always beat Republicans in non-general election turnout, yet Trump’s turnout was more than Biden’s by 135,000.

Growing doubts on Biden’s electability, coupled with ever heightening scrutiny of Biden's policies and fitness for office contrasts sharply with the fervent support Trump enjoysAll this is fueled by a blend of anger and hope. As election day looms, the dynamics in Michigan come into focus, where dissatisfaction with the incumbent and a growing appetite for change sets the stage for what could be the most historic political comeback since Nixon’s return to the White House in 1969.

Public Awareness on the Border

Recent MIG data shows online discussions about border security is significantly increasing, implying rise in awareness and concern among Americans. The general sentiment among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents appears to be that of concern and frustration, albeit for differing reasons.

• In the last 90 days, conversation online about the border has dramatically increased from an average of 2,951 mentions per day in November to 11,088 mentions per day in January.
• In the past week, online discussion about the border has averaged 15,462 mentions per day with February 4 reaching a high of 25,228.

• American sentiment about the border has decreased in the last 90 days. Public sentiment dropped from a consistent 50% in November to 43% today.
• Sentiment on border security has remained below 50% for 84 straight days.

Reactions to the Proposed Border Bill

Discussions about the Lankford border bill appear to be highly polarized and emotionally charged. In general, the discussions also reveal a perceived link between immigration and crime. This suggests that a significant portion of the online discussion on immigration is driven by concerns over safety and rule of law.

Republicans

Sentiment among Republicans seems to be predominantly negative with strong criticism towards the border bill.

• Republicans perceive it as an open borders bill that would allow unchecked immigration and jeopardize national security.
• There are numerous calls for strict immigration control, including the deportation of illegal immigrants and the closure of the border.
• Many accuse the Biden administration of facilitating illegal immigration, which they believe has led to an increase in crime, particularly referencing recent events in New York.
• Republicans also express support for actions against certain Democratic representatives, particularly Ilhan Omar.
• Many advocate for the completion of the southern border wall initiated under Trump's administration.
• Some have even suggested extreme measures like crocodiles in rivers, electrified fences, and drones with bombs.

Democrats

• Democrat voices are less prominent in these border discussions. But there is some criticism of Republicans for spreading what they see as racist and hateful rhetoric.
• Those on the left challenge the narrative of open borders and argue that encounters at the border do not equate to an increase in the U.S. population
• Sentiment suggests they believe Republicans are spreading misinformation about the bill and using the immigration issue to stoke fear and gain political advantage.
• There are accusations of Republicans fear-mongering, particularly toward Trump and Governor Abbott.
• There is also criticism towards the spending on the wall, with some Democrats arguing that the funds could be better used for other domestic issues.
• Democrats continue to be largely critical of the border wall, but are less engaged in discussion about the current crescendo of concern around safety and rule of law.

Independents

• Sentiment among independents is harder to pin down due to the diversity of views within this group.
• There is a noticeable contingent who suggest unorthodox solutions to the border issue, like building a wall on the northern border with Canada.
• Independents are not as vocal as Republicans, but it can be inferred that they are generally concerned about border security and immigration policies.
• They seem to have more nuanced views, but tend to see the need for both border security and humane treatment of immigrants.

Reactions to James Lankford

The online sentiment regarding Senator James Lankford's actions on border security is overwhelmingly negative. Many express dissatisfaction with his border security bill, viewing it as detrimental to the United States.

Approval for Lankford has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 54% and a low of 38%.

Disapproval

• Many argue Lankford’s bill will lead to an influx of 2-3 million illegals per year or 20-30 million in a decade, effectively ending USA borders altogether.
• There’s also dissatisfaction with the bill’s distribution of funding. Many express indignation over possible allocation of more funding to Ukraine and Israel over border security.
• A few voices accuse Lankford of being swayed by bribes or outside interests rather than prioritizing the needs of American citizens.
• Some voters in Oklahoma, Lankford's home state, voice their disappointment, stating that they are closely watching his actions.
• There is a sentiment of betrayal among some Oklahomans who accuse Lankford of siding with Democrats and "selling out" Oklahoma.
• There are numerous calls for him to step down from his position, with some referring to him as a "RINO."
• There's a sentiment of betrayal and a threat of political repercussions with some users threatening to primary him in upcoming elections.
• Across party lines, there seems to be a perceived lack of focus on domestic issues.
• Overall, sentiments reflect a demand for markedly tighter border security measures, as well as a broad disapproval of the bill's provisions.

Approval

• Despite the overall negative sentiment, there are a few voices that view aid to Ukraine as beneficial to the US economy and thus support Lankford's bill.
• Arguments that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented demand for US arms sales, providing a significant boost to the American economy.
• There are a few voices of support for Lankford, arguing that he is focused on results rather than political posturing.
• However, these voices appear to be in the minority.

Reactions to Alejandro Mayorkas

Online sentiments toward Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas appear to be largely negative, with a strong focus on his alleged failure to handle the issues at the border effectively.

• Many commenters accuse Mayorkas of lying about his efforts to address what they perceive as an "invasion" at the border.
• People believe he has not taken action to curb the surge of illegal border crossings. Some even suggest that he's aiding and abetting the situation.
• This sentiment is mostly held by those who believe that Mayorkas and President Biden's border policies have exacerbated the crisis at the southern border.

Approval for Mayorkas has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 48% and a low of 44%.

Division on a Mayorkas Impeachment

While talk about the border situation is generally negative, there seems to be more division about a possible Mayorkas impeachment.

Approval

• There is a strong call from many for his impeachment, with some arguing that his handling of the US-Mexico border crisis is a breach of public trust.
• Many accuse him of lying to the American people and Congress and failing to enforce border security laws.
• There is a belief that Mayorkas has not protected the homeland effectively and should be held accountable for his actions.
• Many say Mayorkas and Biden are ignoring laws they should be enforcing and do have power to act on this issue.
• Supporters insist that it is the duty of Congress members to vote in favor of his impeachment. They also accuse him of being a "Constitution hater."

Disapproval

• On the other hand, there are many who view the potential impeachment as a partisan ploy by House Republicans.
• Arguments that the impeachment is not about Mayorkas's job performance but an attempt to make the border issue a political talking point against the Biden administration.
• Dissenters argue that the impeachment is a political stunt, a "hit job," and an abuse of the process.
• There are some voices who say the impeachment will not pass the House vote and question the timing of the impeachment.
• Some argue that Mayorkas does not have the authority to set the US immigration agenda and that this responsibility lies with Congress.

The "White Dudes for Harris" online Zoom event has evoked disbelief and harsh criticism from the American public regarding race and abortion. Many who consider themselves “non-woke” deride the event as embodying the racism progressive wokeism claims to abhor. This group also strongly criticizes Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, and white male progressives who attended the event—including multiple celebrities.

One significant trend in voter reactions questions Harris's qualifications and capabilities. People express deep concerns about her competence and potential impact on the country's future. Those voicing negative sentiments often express fear of worsening economic and border conditions and potential escalations of war should Harris assume the presidency.

White Dudes for Abortion

The topic of abortion remains a contentious issue. There are strong reactions on the left to the idea that Democrats have failed to protect women’s rights despite holding power. Many left leaning voters voice displeasure at Roe v. Wade being overturned and speak frequently about and alleged "Trump abortion ban."

Among progressives there is appreciation for the coalition-building efforts promoting Buttigieg during the "White Dudes for Kamala" initiative. Some express hope at his potential pick as Kamala’s VP. This “white dude” coalition is touted on the left as a strategic advantage that could potentially mobilize significant male voter turnout in the upcoming election.

However, comments made by Pete Buttigieg during the Zoom fundraiser have caused severe backlash. His statement that, “Men are more free when women have access to abortion,” has incited anger across many groups.

Pete Buttigieg says that men are freer when abortion is legal because men can have consequence free sex and simply kill their unborn babies instead of taking responsibility for them.

But J.D. Vance is weird or something.
pic.twitter.com/4Mj24p3USK

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 30, 2024

Moderate and right leaning voters express shock and disgust at Pete Buttigieg's remarks. They suggest he’s promoting the idea of men killing their unwanted children as a societal positive.

• National sentiment toward abortion and abortion rights has largely stayed below 50% in the last week with abortion topics briefly reaching 53% on July 28.

Mayor Pete Silencing Women

Following Buttigieg’s comments, social media blazed with anger. People highlight their moral and ideological objections to the notion that abortions contribute to men's freedom.

Americans characterize Buttigieg’s comments as antithetical to life and freedom, questioning the moral and social horror of Buttigieg’s views. Criticisms also touch on his personal life, suggesting a gay man, by his own progressive identity politics standards, should not be speaking on abortion rights. They say issues which deeply impact women should not be a talking point for politicians like Buttigieg.

There is outright frustration and anger, not just toward Buttigieg but also broader Democratic policies. Voters describe Buttigieg’s comments as vile, suggesting they promote misogyny by advocating for male support in promoting abortion.

Critics argue many abortions result from male pressure and emotional blackmail, negating the notion that abortion promotes freedom for anyone, male or female. The use of emotionally charged language such as "disturbing," "misogyny," and "emotional blackmail" underscores the deep-seated opposition to Buttigieg's stance.

Further sentiment indicates many view his comments as bizarre and tone-deaf. Comments like, "WTF does this actually mean? You want abortions so men don't have to take care of the children?" and "How misogynistic is that? Abortion was never intended to be a form of birth control," reflect confusion and indignation.

• In the last day, general support for Buttigieg remains steady, even increasing to 53%. Meanwhile, sentiment toward him on abortion topics sharply dropped to 42%.

Liberals Praise Buttigieg, Ignoring His Comments

A minority of comments align with Buttigieg's view, emphasizing that legal access to abortion is a matter of personal choice and bodily autonomy. They say this contributes to overall societal freedom. However, these supportive voices are drowned out by the vast number of detractors.

Progressives highlight Buttigieg as articulate with good communication skills and a strong progressive stance. They appreciate his ability to frame arguments about freedom and rights in ways that resonate with progressive values. They focus on phrases like, "Pete is so beloved," "would be an amazing Veep," and "an incredible communicator" instead of addressing the abortion comment directly. These voters also emphasize his effectiveness in debates and public appearances, praising his capability to challenge Republican narratives.

The conversation also reveals dynamics within the Democratic Party, including debates on the most suitable candidates for the 2024 election. Buttigieg's potential role as Vice President with Kamala Harris garners mixed reactions. Some Democratic voters say he would be a great choice, while others point to his lackluster performance as Transportation Secretary.

The Abortion Debate in America

While abortion tends to be a more popular issue for Democrats than Republicans, many vocal groups online strongly criticize Buttigieg’s comment. They say it endorses irresponsibility among men, suggesting normalized abortion allows men to avoid the responsibilities of fatherhood.

This perception frames men who make abortion an important issue as expressing thinly veiled misogyny rather than equality. People argue that, despite claiming to be the pro-women Party, Democrats are placing undue pressure on women to have abortions and encouraging men to pressure women as well.

Public sentiment also frequently references the moral dimensions of abortion. While conservative arguments typically do not resonate with pro-choice voters on the sanctity of life, spotlighting the hypocrisy of claiming to protect women while pressuring them into unwanted abortions may be a more convincing strategy.

Supporters of Pete Buttigieg who advocate for abortion rights frequently emphasize "freedom," underscoring women's autonomy to make decisions about their bodies. This group interprets Buttigieg's remarks about abortion providing more freedom for men as an extension of broader social liberties. However, counter arguments point out that “white men” gathering to discuss women’s health is contradictory to women making their own decisions.

An apparent surge in support, positivity, and engagement for the Kamala Harris presidential campaign is confusing many Americans. Despite media claims that the highly relatable, meme-friendly, and accomplished Vice President is gaining historic levels of support, many voters remain skeptical.

In addition to feeling much of the hype seems insincere, Americans are talking about suspicious media and Democrat efforts to modify public understanding of Harris’s political track record. The discourse reveals a potent blend of ideology, identity politics, and performance in public office fueling public opinion.

Critics debate Kamala Harris’s qualifications and achievements, often within the context of identity politics, questioning whether her gender and race unjustly shield her from criticism or amplify her credentials. Many also skewer the mainstream media for its increasingly obvious hypocrisy in reporting the VP’s accomplishments and embarrassments.

Protective Cover from the Media

Many Americans view Harris's policies and political endeavors as extremely liberal. This perception would likely damage her chances given the majority of Americans do not align with the far, progressive left.

There's also a perception that media outlets are systematically erasing or altering aspects of her record to present a moderated version of her stances. Examples of this include:

• Her position as “Border Czar”
• Her complicity in covering up Biden’s health and reasons for withdrawing
• Her renown as the “most liberal” Senator
• Her support for the Minnesota Freedom Fund
• Whether she was chosen for her accomplishments rather than her identity

Border Czar

The accusations against media outlets began when headlines claimed Kamala Harris was never named “Border Czar” for the Biden administration. Many people pointed out that, until now, everyone agreed and accepted the colloquial title given to her as the administration’s person in charge of the border.

Americans and right leaning journalists criticized the media for walking this back and even retroactively changing pervious reporting. Axios received significant backlash for modifying one of its own articles from 2021, which mention Harris as Border Czar.

CALLED IT. These pathetic Democrat hacks are the most predictably dishonest people on earth. https://t.co/hzft99D9Zg pic.twitter.com/iox1dlRgGR

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) July 24, 2024

Some also criticized Wikipedia for apparently removing Kamala Harris from the list of historical Border Czars for the U.S.

Update: Wikipedia completely scrubbed Kamala from its executive branch czar page. The Axios article is no longer even listed in the citations. https://t.co/TBF6oHNrHx pic.twitter.com/oCn5Rp0I0h

— James Lynch (@jameslynch32) July 25, 2024

Criticism toward Democrats and the media grew overwhelming when a cue card was leaked which claimed to give the press talking point from the Harris campaign to deny and dismiss Border Czar claims.

Wow.

A Democrat lawmaker confirmed to FOX that Dems have received a piece of paper with talking points/lies about how to discuss Kamala Harris' role at the Southern border.

They are already using the exact lines.https://t.co/CITguKLWCD pic.twitter.com/Bo8pxla61M

— Bobby Burack (@burackbobby_) July 25, 2024

When asked about the cue card, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre claimed to have no knowledge of it. This also generated criticism and backlash from voters who view the current administration as colluding with the media to promote Kamala Harris’s campaign.

JUST IN: Peter Doocy confronts KJP on the now-infamous "talking points" card that tells reporters to deny Kamala Harris was ever appointed "Border Czar."

Let the games begin. 🤣pic.twitter.com/QvfOWZy4a1

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) July 25, 2024

Most Liberal Senator

GovTrack's also received sharp backlash for deleting its 2019 rating of Harris as the "most liberal senator." This deletion is seen as an attempt by the media to cover up or obscure her true political leanings to make her more palatable to moderate voters.

BREAKING: GovTrack just DELETED their 2019 page that ranked Kamala Harris as THE MOST LIBERAL of all 100 Senators

It would be a shame if we made it viral: pic.twitter.com/Pi6KvngOTh

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 24, 2024

Harris critics often label her policies as “communist” and express concerns about her support for open borders, defunding the police, and providing benefits to illegal immigrants. This, people say, is the reason the establishment apparatus is being used to hide her legacy.

Commentary about Kamala’s support for programs such as the Green New Deal, socialized healthcare, and defunding law enforcement positions her even further left than other prominent Democrats, including Bernie Sanders. Most Americans think of these views as dangerously socialist or Marxist and in the minority.

BREAKING: Footage found of VP Kamala Harris supporting DEFUND THE POLICE:

"It's about upending the system"
"We need to look at police budgets"
"More safety with more cops is wrong" pic.twitter.com/0HxUQeov9x

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 26, 2024

Minnesota Freedom Fund

There is also controversy around claims asserting or denying Kamala Harris donated or promoted the Minnesota Freedom Fund—which helps bail out protesters. News outlets published headlines denying Harris donated to the fund, also implying she never supported it. This drew an avalanche videos, articles, and posts being shared to debunk the claim.

Reports from the same outlets and reporters in the past said, “Kamala Harris urged people to donate to the fund while it was bailing out protestors. Since then, it’s been posting bail for other offenders, including one who Republicans say committed a murder in downtown St. Paul.”

This might be the most blatant lie I’ve ever seen.

Esme, the author of this article, was literally at our press conference in 2022 on the light rail platform where a man was murdered by a criminal the Minnesota Freedom Fund had bailed out a short time before.

She then aired… https://t.co/hGinFk7DK0 pic.twitter.com/WSHurmPGBy

— Nick Majerus (@njmajerus) July 26, 2024

The reasons for significant negative sentiment toward Harris and the media appear to stem largely from a broader distrust in institutions. There is a growing perception that there are concerted efforts to hide truths about Kamala’s record to help the Democratic Party. This distrust is further exacerbated by a polarized political climate where ideological purity and alignment are heavily scrutinized and often radicalized.

Trump's Madison Square Garden (MSG) rally is spurring wild and fervent discussion just a week ahead of Election Day. The rally’s impact, intensified by strong media framing, shows sharp divides among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. But MIG Reports data shows the mainstream media’s plan to demonize Trump voters may be backfiring.

The top discussion topics related to the rally are:

• A comedian who goes by the state name “Kill Tony” joked about Puerto Rico being a “floating island of garbage.”
• The media’s reaction comparing the rally to a 1939 pro-Nazi rally at MSG.
• Trump campaigning in blue states like New York, suggesting he wants to win them.
• High energy and triumph for the MAGA movement around the size of the rally.

At Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, podcast host and comedian Kill Tony referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage,” during his set.

Notably, four percent of Pennsylvanians are Puerto Rican.

Around 500,000 people. pic.twitter.com/txE3UD0QVE

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 27, 2024

The Media’s Streisand Effect?

Mainstream media outlets presented Trump’s rally through a highly critical lens. Many compared it to a 1939 pro-Nazi rally at MSG, calling Trump’s event an echo of the same.

This framing doubles down on the Harris campaign’s recent messaging of Trump as a fascist and a Nazi sympathizer. However, the media’s portrayal drew different reactions across groups—either as a rallying cry or confirmation of a disingenuous media.

• Independent are Split: Independents and undecideds are divided, with 65% viewing the media’s portrayal as excessive, while 35% feel it’s justified.
• Republicans Dismiss Hysteria: Republicans overwhelmingly dismiss Nazi comparisons as unfair attacks. Many say the strategy is backfiring since dramatic and hysterical rhetoric sounds unserious to reasonable people.
• Democrats Love Nazi Comparisons: Most Democratic voters say the Nazi comparison is accurate and necessary. They see it as an obvious conclusion in light of their beliefs about Trump as a fascist.

Among persuadable voters and those who are not deeply partisan Democrats, most voters view the media’s rhetoric as over the top. However, because the Harris campaign and mainstream media are leaning so hard into the Nazi comparisons, more voters are taking to social media to express their criticism.

New York a Swing State?

At the rally, Vivek Ramaswamy stirred discussion with his assertion that “New York could become a swing state.” This remark, intended to convey optimism about Republican growth in traditionally Democratic areas, receives mixed reactions.

VIVEK: “Welcome to 2024. New York is a swing state.” 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Uqv4ScJ3bj

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 27, 2024

• Republicans mostly embrace Ramaswamy’s comments, seeing his assertion as a bold and energizing signal of shifting political tides. The idea of New York as a potential battleground boosts morale among Republicans.
• Democrats dismiss Ramaswamy’s statement as unrealistic, perceiving it as wishful thinking. Many Democratic commenters say New York’s demographics and liberal base will not be competitive any time soon.
• Independents are divided. Some appreciate the ambitious tone, viewing it as optimistic for political realignments. However, many also question the practicality of Republicans winning over a heavily liberal electorate.

AOC Feigns Outrage

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was holding an online gaming rally with VP candidate Tim Walz during the MSG rally. Reacting to Tony Hinchcliffe’s Puerto Rico joke, AOC tweeted her offense, saying “4,000+ Puerto Ricans died” under Trump.

She framed the joke as representative of the MAGA movement’s disregard for marginalized communities, calling for Latino voters to share the offense with their families. However, AOC subsequently tweeted admitting she was not offended by the joke, but solely for Hinchcliffe’s willingness to go on stage for Trump.

And before people try to act like this is some PC overly sensitive nonsense, I’ve been to Kill Tony shows. I’m from the Bronx. I don’t give a shit about crude humor.

But don’t pretend that your support for Trump is a joke. Own it. You doing a set to support him. That’s a choice.

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) October 27, 2024

• Democrats support AOC’s criticisms, voicing urgency for opposing Trump.
• Republicans mock and dismiss, AOC as politically motivated and disingenuous.
• Independents are split between being offended by the joke and viewing AOC’s reaction as trivial and dramatic.

Independents Mostly Distrust the Media

For Independents and undecideds, the MSG rally only became a point of interest following media characterizations. This led many to compare Trump’s populist messaging with the media’s critical framing.

• Nazi Rally: Around 65% of Independents dismiss the Nazi rally comparisons as media hyperbole. Only 35% accept it as a legitimate warning of rising extremism.
• Puerto Rico Joke: About 30% of discussions among Independents condemned the Puerto Rico joke, perceiving it as offensive to Latino voters.
• Potential Sway: 15% say they sense desperation among Democrats and that pushes them toward Trump.

Election Impact from Undecideds

The media’s framing generally mobilizes Democrats, reinforces Republican loyalty, and divides Independents. An already polarized electorate mostly responds with heightened partisanship. However, moderates and undecideds who are already skeptical of Democrats say the dramatic rhetoric turns them off.

• Trump Support: 55% of undecided voters say the media’s portrayal and Nazi comparisons makes them more likely to vote for Trump.
• Extremism Concern: 45% of undecideds lament inflammatory comments made during the event, suggesting it repulsed them from supporting Trump.

While many agree there are very few votes available to be swayed, MIG Reports data consistently shows undecideds likely leaning toward Trump.

Republicans are Unfazed

Unsurprisingly, Republicans are energized. They view turnout in a Democratic stronghold as a point of pride. They say the rally is a celebration of American solidarity and patriotism, framing criticisms as further proof of media bias against conservatives.

• Turnout Pride: Around 75% of Republicans are celebrating the success of the rally, seeing it as an affirmation of Trump’s draw and a sign of enduring support.
• Media Criticism: Roughly 65% believe the “Nazi rally” label is a biased attack, reinforcing views of Trump as a political outsider fighting establishment elites.
• Puerto Rico Joke: Only about 20% find the joke about Puerto Rico inappropriate, most dismiss the backlash as feigned outrage by Democrats like AOC.
• Unity: Many Republicans mention endorsements from minority groups, including Puerto Ricans, saying this refutes media portrayals of the rally as exclusionary.

Democrats Worked into a Froth

A whopping 80% of Democrats view the rally as a gathering of extremism. They call the rhetoric exclusionary and inflammatory, using the Puerto Rico joke as a prime example. They almost wholly embrace the media’s framing, presenting an urgent call to the ideological battle against Trump and his base.

• Hate Speech: 80% of Democrats see the rally as promoting hate speech, viewing the “Nazi rally” comparison as an accurate description.
• Focus on Mobilization: 70% call for strong voter turnout, using the rally as a call to reject Trump and get people to the ballot box.
• A Thread of Hope: Roughly 65% of Democrats say the rally’s tone could alienate undecided voters. They hope undecided voters will side with them, ignoring those who feel alienated by the media’s rhetoric.

The 2024 election delivered a historic “red wave,” as Trump and Republican candidates cleaned up with an electoral presidential win, the popular vote, and projections for a majority in the Senate and House.

While conservative circles celebrate this shift, Democratic voters and pundits are reeling from Democrats losing support in almost every state.

Donald Trump gained support in 49 out of 50 states from 2020 to 2024 pic.twitter.com/Jd4O2plEWZ

— America (@america) November 7, 2024

Democratic Voters in Shock and Disbelief

The scale of the Republican victory has generated shock among Democratic voters, many of whom anticipated more favorable results based on conventional polling and media reporting.

Voter reactions indicate a profound disconnect within the Democratic base, with discussions centering around disbelief that such a large political shift could take place after Biden’s historic popular vote totals in 2020.

10 Shocking Stories the Media Buried Today

#10 - Joe Rogan raises SERIOUS questions about Biden’s “81 million votes” in 2020.

“Look at the difference in how many people voted for Biden in 2020. It's unprecedented! It's way higher than any other time since 2012.”

“Look at where… pic.twitter.com/lUN3lMWZdb

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) November 7, 2024

Some attribute this wholesale American rejection of Kamala Harris to a cultural shift which the Democratic Party misread. However, the majority of Harris voters largely attribute the loss to “racism," "misogyny," and a resurgent conservatism. Now, many question whether America remains fundamentally center-right, a trend Democratic strategists appear to have underestimated.

Internal Conflict and Critique

There is division over whether Democrats strayed too far from their traditional working-class roots, or Americans are racist and misogynistic.

An increasingly progressive party, some argue, only alienated vital demographics who feel sidelined by elite-focused, urban-driven policies. Discussions show frustration with the party’s focus on identity politics over practical concerns like economic stability, public safety, and personal freedom.

On today's Morning Joe, Scarborough is still trying to square how Kamala Harris lost so bad and was SHOCKED to learn about the high price of groceries.

Scarborough was floored when a friend told him butter was $3 and he almost fell out of his chair when Mika Brzezinski told him… pic.twitter.com/6MelvWoput

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) November 7, 2024

• Identity Politics: Many Democrats criticize the party’s emphasis on identity politics (e.g., gender identity and race-based policies), arguing they are detached from the daily realities facing middle America.
• Working-Class Alienation: Voters from blue-collar and Latino communities report feeling condescended to, left out by a party they once identified with but now view as elitist and dismissive.
• Shift in Latino Support: A shift toward Trump among Latino voters in traditionally Democratic regions challenges assumptions that progressive policies resonate universally among minority groups.

Some also point out that Trump gained ground with nearly every voter group besides older voters 65+ and white, college educated women. This again results in either accusations of racism and misogyny or critiques of woke ideologies.

red wave is an understatement pic.twitter.com/oRJkGEYYY6

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) November 6, 2024

Strategic Failures and Down-Ballot Neglect

Internal critiques extend to strategic missteps that left Democrats vulnerable at both national and local levels. Voters accuse party officials of focusing too narrowly on top-ticket races, abandoning down-ballot races critical for future influence.

• Down-Ballot Neglect: Voters say too many down-ballot seats went uncontested in key areas, contributing to a domino effect that bolstered Republican gains. This lack of attention to local issues, especially in swing states, draws backlash.
• Missed Outreach: Many Democrats say party leadership failed to mobilize working-class voters, particularly losing touch with Teamsters. There is frustration at the party’s seeming disinterest in engaging on local, bread-and-butter issues.

Professor/NYT columnist Tressie McMillian Cottom urges Dems to double down on identity politics "[Trump] tapped into one of the most powerful of American identities, he tapped into white identity...That means you should double down on identities of your base." pic.twitter.com/21jyTKjhMQ

— Alex Christy (@alexchristy17) November 7, 2024

Woke Versus Democrat

Democratic voter responses indicate a growing internal division. Left-leaning voters are split between support for and frustration with reactionary movements like the “4B movement,” where liberal women pledge to abstain from relationships with men who supported Trump.

• Movement Backlash: Moderate Democrats say progressive and woke movements are self-defeating, alienating young male voters and many conservative minorities who reject identity politics.
• Conservative Mockery: These reactionary movements have also faced ridicule from conservatives. Particularly the 4B movement, which they say plays into Republican messaging on family values, abstinence, and pro-life advocacy.
• Traditional Democrats: A substantial faction in the party calls for a return to traditional Democratic values over worries about alienating leftist progressives.

Outside observers and those on the right are taking the Democrats’ dramatic loss as a complete rejection of woke politics from the American electorate.

Wokeism is dead.
Identity politics is dead.
Virtue-signalling is dead.
Trump’s massive win was a total repudiation of all the far-left’s ‘progressive’ (but actually regressive) crap.
Common sense will now return to a world that had gone nuts, and thank god for that.

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) November 8, 2024

Election Integrity Worries

Another prominent reaction among Democratic voters centers on suspicions of election irregularities. Some suspect compromised mail-in ballots, voter ID issues, and lost votes are generating may have allowed Republicans to cheat. There are calls for reform, as Democrats grapple with the integrity of the electoral process they once championed.

• Missing Votes: Many view the disparity in voter turnout from 2020 to 2024 as suspicious, raising questions about the missing votes.
• Voter ID and Paper Ballots: In a reversal, some Democrats now call for stricter voter ID laws and paper ballots to ensure election security, a stance traditionally taken by Republicans.
• Perceived Fraud: Numerous comments suggest states Democrats lost correlate with lenient voter ID laws, intensifying voter mistrust and calls for electoral reform.

With less than two months until the presidential election, Donald Trump is gaining momentum against a Kamala Harris—who Democrats hoped would buoy the Party after Biden’s exit. MIG Reports data shows a tight race, with Trump’s base expressing high enthusiasm and Harris facing skepticism among her ostensible supporters. The first Trump versus Harris debate is tonight, which could shift sentiments further depending on how each candidate performs.

• Nationally, Trump is recovering from a brief Harris surge following the DNC.
• Prior to the debate on September 10, Trump shows 52% support to Harris’s 48%.

• Republican support across the electoral college is moving upward, with 49% today compared to 47% for Democrats.

The Big Picture

A MIG Reports weighted analysis of real-time voter conversations suggests voter base turnout for each candidate could be around:

• 64% turnout potential for Kamala Harris
• 72% turnout potential for Donald Trump

Currently, Trump appears to have stronger voter mobilization as enthusiasm for Harris wanes amid border and Israel-Palestine drama. This alone does not suggest who will win the election due to the complexity of the U.S. Electoral College system.

More importantly, swing states show Trump slightly ahead with a rising trend. These regions are crucial for a win and Trump's solid swing state support, along with the higher turnout potential, suggests he currently has a stronger path to victory.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris faces growing skepticism from her base over the economy, the border, and the U.S. position on Israel and Hamas. There are also some mentions of controversial endorsements from figures like Dick Cheney and Vladimir Putin.

JUST IN: Vladimir Putin says he supports Kamala Harris for president, says he finds her laugh “fascinating.”

The comments come after the DOJ accused Russia of funding Tenet who then paid conservative influencers for videos.

At the moment, it’s unclear what exactly Russia’s goal… pic.twitter.com/ciXyZ4MCyU

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 5, 2024

These issues are exacerbating a rift, particularly among progressive Democrats, who see her alignment with Israel and establishment figures as problematic. Recent Party defections from public figures like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Alan Dershowitz also signal the growing discontent among Democrats.

In voter conversations about Harris:

• 64% of Democratic voters express a willingness to vote for her.
• 33% vocally oppose her candidacy.
• 15% express concerns about certain endorsements and alignments.

Harris's platform on social justice, healthcare reform, and climate change still resonates with her core supporters. However, she is struggling to mobilize undecided or moderate voters, who have been skeptical of her leadership and competence.

Donald Trump

Meanwhile, Trump enjoys fierce loyalty from his base, who remain energized despite ongoing legal and media controversies. Trump’s supporters cite his stance on law and order, his previous administration’s economic performance, the economy, and frustration with the Biden-Harris administration as reasons for their continued support.

In voter conversations about Trump:

• 72% of Trump’s voter base is excited to turn out.
• 75% of voters highlight endorsements from those like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and law enforcement as motivators.
• 82% of positive sentiments use terms like "MAGA" and "support" when discussing Trump.

Our presidential endorsement process is thorough and inclusive, involving over 377,000 members across the nation. Today, it's a privilege to announce that the collective will of our members has led us to endorse Donald J. Trump for President. We're committed to supporting… pic.twitter.com/RGQbEzroX9

— National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) (@GLFOP) September 6, 2024

Trump’s endorsements from groups like the Fraternal Order of Police have been pivotal in reinforcing his image as a law-and-order candidate. This has helped solidify his base, making voter turnout for him more likely.

• Sentiment toward each candidate in the last seven days is similar, though Trump gains significantly more mentions at 94,118 to Harris’s 42,049.
• Harris’s highest sentiment is for endorsements at 48% and her lowest is for ideologies at 42%.
• Trump’s highest sentiment is endorsements at 47% and his lowest is for allegations at 39%.

Battlegrounds Will Decide the Election

MIG Reports analysis shows a steady rise in Trump’s support both nationally and in key battlegrounds, where Harris is losing ground. The debate tonight could prove pivotal for both candidates as they aim to secure these critical electoral votes.

• In swing states, Trump leads Harris in swing states, with a 30-day average of 49% support to Harris’s 46% average.
• Third party support dropped following RFK Jr. removing himself and endorsing Trump—though Jill Stein has gained 4% support in the last few days.

Key swing state metrics:

• Trump’s support in swing states increased following the DNC from 42% to a high of 54% on August 25.
• Since then, his swing state support has evened out, averaging 49% in the last seven days.
• Harris’s support in swing states dropped following the DNC from 54% on August 21 to 45% on August 25.
• Her support also evened out, averaging 47% in the last 7 days.
• Support for third-party candidates in swing states averaged 4% in the last seven days.

Swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are critical for both candidates. Trump’s growing presence in these battleground areas puts Harris in a difficult position, as she will need to reverse this trend to secure enough electoral votes.

MIG Reports data also shows in swing states:

Donald Trump

• 70% support among white evangelicals
• 50% support from working-class voters
• 80% opposition from younger voters
• 75% opposition from urban voters

Kamala Harris

• 60-70% support among young progressive voters
• 75% opposition from older conservative voters
• 40% of comments support Harris
• 50% of comments criticize Harris

A National Base Support and Turnout

Voter turnout will be a decisive factor in the 2024 election, and Trump’s base shows higher levels of enthusiasm. Trump’s supporters are not only loyal but highly mobilized, while Harris struggles to generate the same level of enthusiasm—particularly among undecided and swing voters.

Trump’s base is solid, and his ability to maintain support from key voter groups, including working-class and rural voters, gives him an edge. Harris, meanwhile, must address the ambivalence within her base and secure a higher turnout from progressive and moderate voters.

Reasons for Voter Support

Each candidate’s voter base expresses various reasons for and against their party’s nominee. These issues will likely be important in the debate.

Kamala Harris

Reasons for supporting:

• Abortion: Democrats’ strong stance on women’s reproductive rights, especially positive among liberal and progressive voters.
• Diversity and equity: Her advocacy for an “equitable society” resonates with those who feel marginalized.
• Progressive policies: Harris endorses healthcare reform, climate action, and immigration reform.
• Representation and inclusivity: Many supporters highlight her historic role as a woman of color and her advocacy for social justice, particularly LGBTQ+ rights.
• Changing American values: Supporters see her policies as positively moving modern American values in a progressive direction.

Reasons for not supporting:

• Perceived incompetence and dishonesty: Critics label Harris as unqualified, ineffective, and politically dishonest, with concerns about her decision-making.
• Failed policies: Despite attempts to distance herself from the Biden administration, voters still associate her with failures in immigration, crime, and economic management.
• Out of touch: Many see her as part of the “liberal elite,” disconnected from ordinary concerns.
• Ideological opposition: Detractors criticize her for promoting a perceived socialist or communist agenda, which they view as a threat to American values.

Donald Trump

Reasons for supporting:

• Economic performance: Many attribute economic growth during his previous presidency to his leadership, expressing dissatisfaction with Harris’s economic policies.
• Immigration and national security: Trump’s strong stance on immigration control is seen as necessary for protecting American jobs and public safety.
• "America First" policies: Supporters admire his protectionist policies, particularly on tariffs and job preservation, viewing him as a defender of American sovereignty.
• Conservative values: Trump is often a symbol for conservative principles, especially among older and rural voters.

Reasons for not supporting:

• Moral concerns: Critics cite January 6th and his rhetoric as divisive and damaging to democratic norms.
• Perceived dishonesty: Many opponents believe Trump undermines public trust by perpetuating false narratives, especially around election integrity.
• Social issues: Younger voters and minority groups often oppose Trump over concerns about social justice, climate change, and abortion.
• Divisive leadership style: Many are concerned Trump’s approach fosters division rather than unity, especially his incendiary remarks.