Trump's recent historical win in Iowa seems to have bolstered his support in New Hampshire as well, with many staunch Republicans backing him as the only viable candidate who can beat President Biden in the general election. There's a strong sentiment among these supporters that Trump is the true defender of the American Constitution and the values it represents. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley have distinct campaign narratives and differing levels of support, which have been shaped by various factors, including their performances in the Iowa Caucus and the endorsement of Trump by Vivek Ramaswamy. Interestingly, there’s continued conversation of final weeks’ campaign spending and effect in the Iowa caucus.

• Trump’s campaign spent $3.5 million on advertising, securing 54,783 votes, which translates to $63.88 per vote. This efficient campaign spending demonstrates Trump's enduring popularity within the party.
• Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, spent $6.1 million for 22,803 votes in the Iowa Caucus, equating to $268 per vote.
• Nikki Haley’s campaign spent a significant $7.8 million in the Iowa Caucus to secure 20,446 votes, equating to $381.49 per vote.

Looking back at the results from the Iowa caucus, we see a trend of strong support for anti-establishment figures. If this sentiment carries over into New Hampshire, it could benefit Trump, who has long positioned himself as an outsider fighting against the "establishment." Trump’s support received an overnight bump of approximately 7% and is back to over 50%, mirroring his results of the Iowa Caucus. DeSantis, with his strong stance on state rights versus federal overreach, could also capitalize on this sentiment. Haley, however, may struggle if the New Hampshire electorate continues to lean anti-establishment.

What’s On The Ballot?

Online sentiment in New Hampshire indicates several topics which either increases support for Trump or decreases support for Haley, DeSantis:

• Globalism, Trade, and Foreign Relations - negatively impacting Haley due to perceived support for the World Economic Forum's Agenda 2030 and soft on China.
• Immigration - Online discussions suggest that immigration might be a key issue for voters, which may favor Trump more despite perception of Haley's toughness on the border,
• Candidate Credibility - Voters appear to be assessing the candidates on their perceived ability to effectively lead and manage the nation, as evident in the criticism of Haley and DeSantis.
• Anti-Trump, Pro-Establishment Sentiment - For some voters, their support for Haley seems to be driven more by their dislike for Trump than their liking for Haley.
• Evangelicals & Non-College Educated - Haley's lack of appeal to this demographic and Ramaswamy's appeal to this group suggests that their concerns and preferences are shaping the race.
• Political strategies - Voters are attentive to each candidate's strategy, as shown by the commentary on Haley's decision not to participate in the debates unless Trump does.

Specific issues may vary between states and individuals, but there is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change among the GOP primary voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similar to the Iowa voters, there is a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration and a desire for change in the government. This is evidenced by the call for a strong candidate who can defeat Biden and the concerns about election integrity.

Trump’s dominant win in Iowa has set a high bar, while DeSantis and Haley are offering distinct alternatives to Trump's style and politics. In a curious twist, some Democrats are reportedly willing to caucus for Haley if it boosts her chances against Trump, even though they plan to vote for Biden in the general election. This underlines the complexity of the political landscape and the high stakes of this election. It also demonstrates the level of opposition to a potential Trump nomination within sections of both the Democratic and Republican electorate.

Candidate Approval - Trump Alone Above 50%

The criticism of both Haley and DeSantis for representing "same old" politics suggests that there may be a desire for a more non-traditional candidate. New Hampshire’s primary is shaping up to be a closely contested race. Trump's strong, albeit divisive, support base, DeSantis's as-yet unclear position, and Haley's potential appeal to cross-party voters could all impact the eventual outcome.

• Nikki Haley, despite underperforming in the Iowa caucus, seems to have a unique appeal, especially among Democrats who seem to prefer her over President Biden. Her campaign has focused on her electability, with canvassers in New Hampshire emphasizing her potential to defeat Biden in a general election. However, there are also voters who have expressed strong opposition to her, using the hashtag #NeverNikki, suggesting a divided public sentiment towards her candidacy.

Recent MIG data shows that online discussion about an impeachment inquiry against President Biden has not yet garnered wide attention, although there is some increase.

• Discussion jumped from 506 to 1,278 people talking about “impeachment” between December 10 and 11.
• Sentiment toward the subject dropped from 47% to 46% on the same days.
• What discussion does exist seems to be split according to political leanings.

Comments in Favor of Impeachment

• Some argue there is evidence that President Biden had illicit interactions with unspecified individuals and should therefore be impeached.
• Some believe that the President acted illegally or unethically regarding his family's business interests, citing an Associated Press poll that 70% of Americans, including 40% of Democrats, support this view.
• Users point to the alleged spending of Hunter Biden as a potential point of investigation and grounds for impeachment.
• Some mention that the House is expected to vote on an impeachment inquiry due to alleged evidence that Biden had multiple interactions with his son's foreign business associates.
• Some argue that Biden lied about his son's activities, which they view as grounds for impeachment.

Comments Against Impeachment

• Some argue that Republicans are seeking to impeach Biden without any concrete evidence of wrongdoing.
• Arguments that the impeachment inquiry is a political move by Republicans aimed at undermining Biden's presidency.
• Some vocally support Biden and Harris and plan to vote for Democrats in future elections, suggesting they do not support the impeachment inquiry.
• Users cited Mitt Romney's statement that he has not seen any evidence to authorize the impeachment inquiry.
• Some people argue that the situation in the country would be much worse if Biden was not the president, indicating they do not support the impeachment.

SCOOP

The recent Congressional hearings on antisemitism in Ivy League schools, specifically focusing on Representative Elise Stefanik's questioning, have sparked intense online discussions. The sentiment surrounding Stefanik's stance on Israel and her inquiries into antisemitism varies widely. Despite the polarization, a notable theme emerges from the conversations: a growing belief among many Americans that Ivy League institutions are not doing enough to curb hateful rhetoric on their campuses.

Key Themes Of Discussion

Support for Stefanik's Questioning:

Many online commentators expressed appreciation for Stefanik's pointed questions during the Congressional hearings. Some thanked her for bringing attention to the issue of antisemitism and criticized Harvard for what they perceived as a failure to condemn hateful rhetoric. Stefanik's inquiries about calls for the destruction of Israel were seen as necessary to address concerns about the university's code of conduct.

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Criticism of Stefanik

On the flip side, there were criticisms of Stefanik, with some questioning her approach. Detractors accused her of conflating legitimate criticism of Israeli policies with antisemitism and argued that her definition of antisemitic behavior was overly broad. Some even suggested that Stefanik was using the situation for political gain, aligning herself with former President Trump.

Debate Over Free Speech:

The discussions also delved into the broader debate over free speech on college campuses. Some users argued that universities should focus on educating individuals making antisemitic statements rather than outright punishment. Others contended that certain forms of speech, particularly those inciting hatred or violence, should not be protected under the banner of free speech.

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Concerns About Academic Institutions:

A recurrent theme in the discussions was the criticism directed at Ivy League institutions and academia. Some users accused these institutions of fostering antisemitism and failing to protect Jewish students adequately. This criticism extended to the perceived evasiveness of academic responses, contrasting them unfavorably with the perspectives of "ordinary" working people.

There are varied opinions towards defunding Ivy League institutions altogether. The majority of the posts do not explicitly advocate for defunding, but they do express disappointment and concern about how these institutions are handling issues of antisemitism and so-called "woke" ideologies. There are calls for the resignation of university presidents and criticism of their responses to the Congressional hearings.

Conclusion

While online discussions on antisemitism in Ivy League schools are diverse and often polarized, a common thread emerged – a growing perception among many Americans that Ivy League institutions are falling short in addressing and preventing hateful rhetoric. We saw a rise in both positive and negative comments for Stefanik on topics like “Israel” and “Ideologies,” while support for “universities” experienced a dip the day of the hearing and the day after.

The hearings, particularly Stefanik's questioning, have brought to light the complexities of the issue, reflecting broader debates on free speech, political motivations, and the role of academic institutions in shaping societal values. The calls for increased accountability and efforts to confront antisemitism on campuses suggest a need for continued dialogue and action in the pursuit of tolerance and understanding.

Scoop

Governor Gavin Newsom’s public opinion has dropped after outrage over San Francisco’s overnight clean up for foreign dignitaries arriving for last week’s APEC Summit.

The Details

• Ahead of the summit, San Francisco authorities dismantled homeless encampments downtown, scrubbed away graffiti, and installed murals and decorative crosswalks to spruce up high-traffic zones.
• Newsom acknowledged the summit motivated the city to "raise the bar" on cleaning efforts.

What they’re saying

The Governor quipped to reporters 'I know folks are saying, 'Oh, they're just cleaning up this place because all those fancy leaders are coming to town,' said Newsom late last week.

'That's true, because it's true - but it's also true for months and months and months prior to APEC, we've been having conversations.'

"He was more concerned with promoting...his policies instead of addressing the human suffering on our streets," said Jennifer Friedenbach of the Coalition on Homelessness.

Conservative Pundit Megyn Kelly derided the Governor’s priorities, “Gavin Newsom and Mayor Breed clean up the city just in time for the Chinese leader to show up there with Joe Biden...They’re important, but the actual residents of San Francisco can pound sand,' Kelly said on her podcast.

Movement

• As media focused on the pre-summit clean up and Newsom’s comments acknowledging the clean up, Newsom has earned consistently lower daily opinion scores.
  • In the first half of the last 30 days, Newsom’s daily opinion scores only fell below 45% once.
  • Since November 9th, Newsom's daily public opinion scores have only topped 45% once, mostly lingering between 43-44% on most days.
  • Despite touting negotiation wins with China on fentanyl and carbon emissions, opinion amongst users discussing Newsom online tumbled further on the first day of the Summit, dropping from 44% on November 15th to 39% on November 16th.
    • This was the lowest daily opinion score for Newsom in the last 30 days.

Lasting Impression

The California Governor continues to be attacked for the clean up fiasco, finding himself in first place amongst major politicians who earn more negative than positive comments online.

Looking ahead

As speculation grows over a future Newsom presidential bid, the spotlight on California’s homelessness crisis seems unlikely to dim, posing a significant political challenge to the California Governor’s political ambition.

A recent MIG report has found that many Americans have a general feeling of skepticism and lack of trust towards the government. This attitude is held among both Democrats and Republicans.

• Many feel there is a deep state or establishment elite who operate by different rules than average citizens.
• There’s a belief that the government, media, and certain elites are working together to control narratives and manipulate public opinion.
• People accuse these entities of using their power to silence opposition and protect their own interests.

Daily Sentiment for the Top Discussion Topics

Trump and Discussion About a Weaponized Government

Trump remains a highly polarizing figure for both sides, often gaining mention in discussions about abuses of state power. This is true of both parties, whether they perceive Trump as misusing the state himself or having it used against him.

• There is a perception that politicians on both sides of the aisle are not genuinely looking out for the interests of the public, but rather their own political agendas.
• Vocal criticisms of Republicans who didn’t support Trump and Democrats who are seen as being overly focused on criticizing Trump.
• There's a belief that the "deep state" or establishment is actively working to keep Trump out of power and that there's a double standard in how allegations against him and his team have been handled compared to others, including the Biden family.
• There are calls for a thorough cleaning of the government to rid it of "deep state actors," with some suggesting that Trump should be the one to do this.

Skepticism Toward Government Agencies

Some people believe that government agencies, in particular the FBI and IRS, are being used as weapons against ordinary citizens.

• Americans have concerns about tax enforcement and the handling of events such as the January 6th Capitol riots.
• Some express frustration with the perceived lack of action from the GOP, accusing them of not doing enough to protect the 2020 election, build the wall, or defund organizations like the FBI and IRS.
• There's a strong sentiment among the public about the lack of transparency and accountability in the government and judicial system.

Special Treatment for Elite Figures

People feel that those in power or with influence can get away with actions that would have severe consequences for average citizens.

• There is a concern that high-profile figures, like Paul Manifort and Arnold Schwarzenegger, are treated differently by the justice system and media due to their status or political alignment.
• Some discuss the 2024 election as a critical point for addressing these government-bias issues, with Trump seen as a potential solution to "clean up the Swamp."
• Some suggest that the government is corrupt and that certain figures, like the Vindman brothers, are complicit in this corruption and are trying to outmaneuver the will of the people.

The Public’s View of the Media

There's mistrust towards the media, with some accusing it of being a mouthpiece for the "deep state" and focusing on trivial matters to distract from larger issues.

• The COVID-19 pandemic is perceived to have exposed corruption in the government and media, as well as the extent of propaganda used to manipulate public emotions.
• Accusations of hypocrisy among government and media figures.

What Americans are Saying

Overall, Americans feel they do not know what’s happening in the government dues to lack of transparency and lack of education.

• Several comments suggested that people want to understand the workings of the government and justice system better.
• Many people expressed a desire for change in the system. There are calls to ensure everyone, regardless of their status or influence, is treated equally by the justice system.
• There’s a perception that each side feel more skepticism, depending on which party is in power. However, the data does not clearly indicate which party is more skeptical overall.
• Many people feel disillusioned and cynical about government institutions.
• There's a desire for more public involvement in government decision-making, including public meetings and debates, as well as mechanisms for public feedback and input.

A growing rift has emerged among Democrats over the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, according to a new Media Intelligence Report.

• Overall online sentiment toward Israel and Hamas has been split over the past week at 38% and 36% respectively.
• However, among Democrats, sentiment has been more evenly divided between Israel and Hamas
• at 45% each.
• These sentiment indicators highlight growing ideological differences between factions in the Democrat party.

The Dividing Line for Dems

• The MIG report identified a generational divide, with younger Democrats generally more critical of Israel than older members who emphasize Israel's security needs.
• Moderate Democrats urged a balanced approach, condemning Hamas while addressing Gaza's humanitarian plight.
• Some old-school Democrats decry what they see as a shocking increase in antisemitism among college students and far-left Democrats.
• These divisions are causing a rare crack in the normally unified Democrat front.

What Democrats Are Saying

Historically, Democrats tend to move in lockstep, coalescing around a common principle or ideology that drives progressive policy. That is not the case when it comes to Israel.

Support for Israel Among Democrats

• Some Democrats defend Israel's military actions as necessary self-defense against Hamas. They argue that Israel is responding to aggression and criticize Hamas for using civilians as human shields.
• Among these Democrats, there is support for Biden’s $14.5 billion in military aid for Israel, without humanitarian assistance for Gaza.
• Many view Hamas’ actions on October 7 as a “vile atrocity” that requires immediate response.
• Overall, many older and more moderate Democrats seem to be inclined to support Israel compared to younger, extremely progressive Democrats.
• Many in the Jewish community argue that pro-Palestine protestors misunderstand the threat from Hamas and overly simplify the complex history.

Pro-Palestine Democrats

• In contrast, many younger Democrats accuse Israel of war crimes and "genocide" in Gaza. The far left celebrated the terror attack, refused to condemn it, or suggested Israel bears responsibility.
• They call for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel and an immediate ceasefire.
• Recent pro-Palestine protests in Washington DC, suggest a growing sentiment in support of Palestine.
• These individuals argue that Palestinians are being disproportionately targeted and suffer more casualties compared to Israeli civilians.
• Protestors demand the Biden administration take a firmer pro-Palestine stance.
• Some demand steps be taken to hold Israeli leadership accountable for alleged atrocities. Many protesters also express support for the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.

Other Takeaways

• Overall, there seems to be a division over what constitutes antisemitism. Some say criticism of Israel equates antisemitism.
• Others argue that animosity towards Israel is growing, worsening antisemitism.
• Meanwhile, others argue criticism is not inherently antisemitic.
• In sum, the discourse reveals deep divisions not only between different political and ideological groups, but also within them.

Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a recent Media Intelligence Group report. This data lines up with recent Reuters/Ipsos polling showing Biden’s approval rating at a low of 39% since April.

• MIG data is consistent with surveys by The New York Times, Yahoo Finance and others showing Trump edging out Biden by a few percentage points in head-to-head matchups.
• The former president appears to have an advantage among key demographics including independents, rural voters and working-class whites.

30-Day Sentiment Averages

In the last 30 days, MIG data shows Trump gaining higher support averages than Biden.

 In addition, Trump is gaining noticeably higher sentiments in Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. 

What Voters Are Saying

Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling reveals Biden hitting a very low approval rating of 39% at the beginning of November. Diving deeper, MIG data shows some of the reasons voters are unhappy with Biden.

 Voter Negativity Toward Biden

• Criticism of Biden, accusing him of supporting genocide, aiding Hamas, and mismanaging the Israel situation.
• Biden receives negativity from both sides regarding Ukraine. Some say he has deceivedthe
• American people and over-funded Ukraine, while others lament that he has not done enough. Critics also blame Biden for high inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing gas prices.
• Backlash for high national debt and accusations Biden is negatively impacting the housing market and food prices.
• Displeasure overall for “Bidenomics.”
• There is still severe dissatisfaction with Biden’s perceived mishandling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
• Many voters argue that the Biden administration has actively encouraged illegal immigration and
• compromised border security.
• There are also concerns about Biden family corruption and calls for the Justice Department to act and investigate.

 Criticisms of Trump

• Despite a slim lead in support sentiment, MIG data shows voters are also divided on Trump with some asserting he will likely not be able to win against Biden.
• There are still many concerns over Trump’s indictments and possible legal ramifications prior to the election.
• Many voters express positivity towards the Trump economy, but he also receives criticism for contributing to the national debt.
• In recent weeks, some of Trump’s comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict have caused negativity.
• Many voters still feel Trump has such bad character that he should not be permitted to serve as president again.
• There are expressions that the MAGA movement and Trump himself are racist bigots.

The Outlook for Both Candidates

• Overall, support numbers for Biden and Trump have shown Trump with a lead for the last 30 days.
• Voters give Trump higher marks on core issues like the economy, immigration and national security.
• Though both are significantly unpopular with certain groups, Biden suffersadditional doubts about his age and mental fitness; Trump maintains staunch support from his Republican base. Trump still faces considerable legal vulnerabilities that could still dampen his standing.
• Biden retains a slightly more favorable image among moderates and is less divisive among Democrats.

Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson emerged from obscurity last week, rising to Speaker of the House at a critical junction for Conservatives and America as a whole. Johnson faces his first test as Speaker, grappling with the decision of whether to prioritize the calls of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Senators alike for joint Israel-Ukraine aid or the Conservative Grassroots’ demand to prioritize domestic crises, as America faces record-breaking surges in illegal migrant encounters and rising overdose rates. With a solid grounding in conservative principles and an unapologetic commitment to his faith-driven worldview, Johnson’s career has been the embodiment of the ongoing battle between everyday Conservatives and the entrenched elites of D.C. Hailing from Shreveport, Mike Johnson is no stranger to swamps, but now this modern-day Cajun David will be put to his first major test as he takes on the Goliath that is the Washington Establishment.

Mike Johnson was little known to much of America prior to his election as Speaker. A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology to monitor online discussions surrounding politicians and political issues, found that prior to his election, Johnson was hardly discussed by social media users. In fact, in all of September, just 820 users nationally mentioned Johnson online. That all changed when Johnson rose to be elected the 56th Speaker of the House. On October 25th alone, Johnson’s online mentions exploded to 6,056, and he ended October with 16,335 total user mentions.

Johnson’s first week as Speaker quickly disappointed the D.C. establishment. Johnson has gone directly against the Senate’s plea to couple Israel and Ukraine aid into one single package. Instead, Johnson opted to cut Ukraine aid from Israel aid and made funding for Israel aid contingent on a $14 billion cut in IRS funding from Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Both separating Ukraine aid and IRS
cuts immediately met resistance from Senate Democrats and Republicans alike. “That’s a poison pill and non-starter. It’s just not the way we’re going to proceed,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (MD-D) told Politico. Furthermore, Republican Senator Mitt Romney voiced his opposition, “If we're going to have a piece of legislation that actually becomes law, it’s going to include support for Ukraine, as well as Israel..." adding, "Reducing the IRS doesn't make a lot of sense to me."

Johnson’s play to make Israel Aid stand-alone hasn’t been as unpopular with Americans as it has been in the Senate. MIG’s report found that Mike Johnson’s overall average sentiment score, an average of all positive and negative social media comments made towards Johnson to date, has remained high at 49% since announcing the stand alone Israel package. His daily sentiment score, an average of all positive and negative social media comments in a 24 hour window, has also been strong, remaining at or just below 50% each day over the last 7 days. These sentiment scores are considered high for prominent elected officials. For example, President Joe Biden has a 44% overall average sentiment and has not surpassed 45% daily sentiment once in the last 60 days. Despite increased scrutiny on both Johnson’s policy record and personal life since assuming the Speakership, Johnson has maintained both his 49% overall average sentiment and his short-term daily sentiment at elevated levels compared to peers like Biden.

With less than a month until a government shutdown, Speaker Johnson faces both honoring conservative commitments and the dueling priorities between the House and Senate as he fights to deliver Israel aid in its war against Hamas. Johnson’s ability to mobilize House Conservatives in favor of this package will be no small feat, nor will the coming stare down between the House and Senate in reconciling their clashing priorities. Johnson’s success or failure in navigating the choppy political waters in the coming weeks will set the tone for his Speakership. Yet with the latest Israel bill introduced by Johnson, and steadfast conservative principles and faith as his guide, Johnson appears unwavering in the face of the Goliath that is the Washington Establishment.