Americans are growing more negative about COVID vaccines, amid recent headlines highlighting the possible risks associated with them. Many people on the right have been skeptical and expressing doubt for years, but MIG data shows Democrats are growing more skeptical as well.

Overall Vaccine Discussions

More people online are discussing the potential risks of getting vaccines and booster shots. The possible presence of heavy metals and potential for severe medical problems is becoming a common theme.

Americans are talking about the possibility that vaccines may cause blood clots, increase the risk of heart, brain, and blood disorders, and even contribute to the emergence of more serious diseases.

This is especially concerning for the many Americans who suggest the vaccines and online discussion about them, might be part of larger censorship conspiracies or cover-ups. Some consider the vaccines, like the virus itself, as a form of biowarfare or claim they contain harmful substances.

Some argue that, until now, censorship prevented the public from becoming aware of risks and dangers associated with experimental drugs like the vaccine. They remain dubious of the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, suggesting there would be much more negativity across the political spectrum without such severe censorship.

Across many professional groups and political divisions, people are questioning the rushed pace of vaccine development and approval, citing a need for long-term safety studies. Even those who still advocate for vaccines question why they don't prevent the spread of COVID, only lessen the severity of the symptoms.

Democrats Grow Negative on Vaccines

Historically, Democrats tend to be the voices advocating for COVID vaccines. This is largely still the case—however, sentiment within this group is surprisingly low.

• MIG data shows COVID vaccine sentiment among Democrats is 34%, a 14-day low.
• Overall discussion volume regarding COVID vaccines has averaged 635 mentions per day.

Until very recently...

• Democrats have long insisted that COVID vaccines are crucial tool for “ending the pandemic.”
• They have been stressing the importance of getting vaccinated and following public health guidelines.
• They tend to be very critical towards those potentially spreading misinformation about the vaccines, including public figures and political opponents.
• Often, they express concern about vaccine skepticism and resistance.

Current conversations reveal...

• Some Democrats are expressing concern about the alleged censorship of COVID news.
• There are more mentions of the possible side effects of the vaccines, including slight increases in heart, brain, and blood disorders.
• However, some Democrats argue that the risks of contracting COVID far outweigh these side effects.
• Many still criticize outspoken figures like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene for allegedly spreading conspiracy theories and confusing the public.
• Some are calling for investigations into allegations of adverse effects from vaccines and demanding transparency.

While Democrats are still the most vocal group in favor of vaccines, it’s possible to conclude that they are becoming more aware of the risks. The overall conversation online suggests that, despite censorship, facts and studies about the realities of COVID vaccine dangers are being revealed.

In the face of changing public health guidelines, warnings, and efficacy studies, it seems more Democrat voters may be growing dissatisfied with demonstrated negative vaccine outcomes.

ICE may begin the mass-release of illegal immigrants after the failed border bill, but many Americans are unaware, online trends show. In the wake of the ICE bombshell, online discussion increased only slightly, indicating border policy fallout may be delayed.

• While the border remains a top election issue, early February’s House battle over the widely criticized Border Bill saw peak discussion volume, reaching nearly 30,000 online mentions.
• Trends show widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration’s policies and the worsening situation on the US southern border.
• However, by February 14, discussion was down by two thirds, barely crossing 10,000 mentions in the wake of the failed so-called Border Bill, which would limit illegal border crossings to 5,000 per day.
• The data suggests that Americans are unaware of the implications of continued border security issues as volume decreases, yet negative sentiment remains stable.
• Border sentiment has held within a few percentage points of 45% for the last 30 days and sits at 45% as of February 15.

Competing with wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the DOJ Special Counsel Report questioning President Biden’s fitness for office, border security has dropped to sixth place among trending topics. Yet the undiscussed bombshell—that ICE may be set for the widespread release of detained illegal immigrants—has yet to explode.

Top issues online:

1. Biden – special counsel report
2. Security issues – Ukraine and Israel
3. Ideologies – Wokeism
4. Economic issues – taxes and inflation
5. Palestine – Gaza and Hamas
6. Border security – illegal immigration

The discussion around ICE’s potential mass release is limited, according to MIG data. But there is a clear sentiment among those who are discussing it that illegal immigrants should be deported immediately upon encounter with law enforcement.

What People Are Saying About the Border

Discussion of the border falls predictably within partisan lines, even as democrats’ sentiment on the border has eroded. A clear theme is that huge numbers of illegal entries are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, and more Americans now call for stricter border control and mass deportations.

• Mass Deportations: Many Americans are expressing frustration and anger towards immigration policies they perceive as lax, calling for mass deportations and closing the border.
• Sentiment tracking shows the Border is linked with a host of other critical issues: Americans are worried about crime, terrorism, and the economic burden associated with illegal immigrants.

• There are also increasing accusations of treason against individuals who support open border policies.
• Double standards: trends show dissatisfaction with preferential treatment for illegals, such as bypassing TSA screening at airports and benefits funded by American taxpayers.
• Discussion of ICE is limited, but existing trends show a critical stance toward the agency for releasing illegals into the US—which could happen at scale in the wake of the Biden Administration’s battle with the House.

Blame to Go Around

While discussion has simmered in the wake of the bill’s failure, trends show Americans’ anger over the border persists.

• Republican voters are accusing the Biden administration of lying and gaslighting the public in its claims the administration lacks the authority to close the border.
• The few Democrats who have reacted to the border crisis are blaming Republicans and, more specifically, Donald Trump.
• Some defending the Biden administration claim immigrants contribute to the economy and pay taxes.
• Liberal voters criticized Republican lawmakers for blocking the legislation, which would have permitted 5,000 illegal border crossings each day. But increasingly, democrats have turned on the Biden Administration’s handling of the issue.

Impeached DHS secretary Alejandro Mayorkas also received attention in the wake of his House impeachment inquiry.

• On the day of his impeachment, and the following day, discussion about Mayorkas increased from roughly 500 to 1,500 mentions.
• Approval for Mayorkas actually increased from 45% to 46% on the day of his impeachment.
• This indicates that, despite widespread dissatisfaction with the border, Americans are not fully on board with Republican political tactics.

However, along with negativity toward House Republicans, the public discourse around Mayorkas is under fire, with calls for his ouster.

• Many are arguing Mayorkas was derelict in his duty from day one, and that his impeachment is direct fallout from his handling of the border.
• Some are unsatisfied with Mayorkas as the target for inquiry, suggesting Mayorkas’ and DHS’ problems with the border extend to Biden and the White House.
• Even among some Republicans, there is belief that impeaching Mayorkas will not solve the underlying issue, as the Biden Administration will likely replace Maryorkas with someone equally unfit.
• There are also criticisms that the House Republicans have spent more time trying to impeach Mayorkas than they have spent actually securing the border.
• There is speculation that President Biden will scapegoat Mayorkas’ DHS to shift blame away from his administration.
• The Senate's ability to convict Mayorkas is unclear, with the real possibility a Senate trial would end in acquittal.

Overall, trends indicate Americans are unhappy with officials and lawmakers across the board when it comes to the southern border. Even as the border has lost ground to war and security issues in trending discourse, sentiment shows deep underlying negativity among Americans about the number of illegal immigrants entering the country.

Security issues have obscured the prospect of widespread ICE releases of illegals, the fallout of which remains to be seen.

As the news spreads of a possible disqualification of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from the Trump RICO case, the public response is a mixed bag. The main issue revolves around Willis's alleged personal relationship with Nathan Wade, a special prosecutor she appointed to manage the election interference case against Donald Trump.

Overall, it seems the potential for Willis to be removed from the case has heightened skepticism about the validity of the charges. A significant portion of the public raises concern about the potential implications on the integrity of the judicial process. This seems to be a general trend, despite clear partisan divides on this issue.

In online discourse, the top keywords related to Fani Willis are largely generating negative sentiment.

Sentiment toward Fani Willis related to the various allegations dropped noticeably when a hearing on her possible dismissal was announced.

• Trump and Willis saw similar sentiment in the high 40% range prior to the hearing news.
• After her misconduct hearing was announced, Willis dropped to 40% and Trump held at 46%.

It is evident that Democrats and Republicans view this case very differently based on political opinions. However, sentiment toward allegations against both Trump and Willis is similar among all voters, dropping slightly across the board as news about the hearing is released.

Republicans Accuse Willis of Politicizing the Justice System

In general, Republicans are very critical of both Willis’s actions and the RICO case itself.

• They argue that Willis is politically biased and has used her position to target high-profile political figures including Trump.
• Republicans believe that her connections to the Democratic Party, particularly her alleged meetings with the Biden administration, are evidence of this bias.
• Critics also claim that her campaign fundraising was partially illegal, suggesting corruption.
• They believe she is more interested in aiding Biden's 2024 campaign than prioritizing public safety and the rule of law.
• Many on the right argue Willis’s relationship with Nathan Wade is inappropriate and simply the appearance of conflicts of interest compromise the impartiality of her office.

Democrats Insist No One is Above the Law

For their part, Democrats tend to support Willis and, even more strongly, the case she’s bringing against Trump.

• Democrats point out that Willis is a highly qualified prosecutor who is committed to upholding the rule of law.
• They argue that her investigations into Trump is not the result of political bias, but rather a reflection of her commitment to holding everyone accountable, regardless of their status.
• Supporters also dismiss the allegations of illegal campaign funding, noting that they are unproven and potentially politically motivated.
• Many on the left argue that these allegations are attempts to undermine Willis's credibility and reputation.
• There are assertions that Willis and Wade’s private lives should not be used to judge their professional competence.
• Democrats claim that male figures in similar positions often maintain private lives without facing the same level of scrutiny.

Doubling Down on Trump Support

With more evidence of a politicized judicial system, many on the right and in the center are arguing in favor of Trump.

• Continued legal attacks on Trump, which seem to be fast falling apart, elicit accusations that the "Deep State" is politicizing the courts.
• Allegations that Willis misused state and federal funds have been a key topic, with many expressing their desire for justice and transparency in the political sphere.
• There is a considerable amount of frustration among many different groups who view the situation as an example of corruption and a disregard for the rule of law.
• There are voices lauding Congressman Cory Mills for introducing a bill aimed at removing Willis from her position.
• Some are hailing the prospects of Willis's disqualification as a victory for Trump, suggesting that the allegations against Willis undermine the credibility of the entire case.
• Many Americans seem to be concluding that bias and corruption are being revealed within the legal establishment against Trump.
• There's a sentiment among some that Willis, along with other prominent Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama, are given a "pass" despite perceived wrongdoing..

While Republicans are largely leading the objections against a potentially politicized judicial system, this sentiment seems to be spreading to other voter groups as well.

Objections of Racism

In defense of Willis, Democrats and others on the left take the other side of the politicization argument.

• Many Democrats counter with the argument that Willis’s misconduct hearing is a result of Republicans weaponizing the court against her.
• There are arguments that "black women in charge" are subjects of excessive criticism.
• Supporters suggest that Willis's potential disqualification is part of a broader pattern of American biases that black, female leaders are incompetent or corrupt.
• Supporters also accuse Republicans of attempting to punish Willis for maintaining a private life alongside her professional responsibilities.
• Many dismiss the allegations against Willis as an attempt to distract from Trump's alleged misdeeds.
• Many on the left assert that Willis is being unfairly targeted due to her race and gender and that she is facing heightened scrutiny which white or male DAs would not.
• Overall, those on the left see the possible removal of Willis as a potential setback in the pursuit of accountability for Trump's actions.
• Among this group, Willis's potential disqualification does not necessarily invalidate the indictments.

RFK Jr. has been a topic of discussion online following his Super Bowl ad. Unsurprisingly, feedback is mixed with some praising his honesty, transparency, and dedication to fighting government corruption. However, the ad also caused some controversy which led to Kennedy apologizing on Twitter.

Overall, the $7 million ad doesn’t seem to have markedly changed voter perception of the Independent candidate.

• Discussion volume regarding RFK Jr. increased from around 350 mentions the day before, to nearly 800 following the Super Bowl ad.
• Approval for RFK Jr. ticked down by about 1% both nationally and in swing states.
• His approval on February 9 was slightly higher in swing states at 51% versus 50% nationally.
• On February 11, his approval in swing states dipped slightly below his overall sentiment at 49.4% compared to 49.7% nationally.

Reactions and RFK Jr.’s Apology

Following the ad, there was expressed concern about his influence due to his media experience and recognizable name.

Negativity Toward the Ad

• A columnist, David Colborne, characterized RFK Jr. as a "dangerous and paranoid crank," generating agreement and discussion.
• Some voiced their disapproval, calling for the ad to be taken down and requiring an apology.
• Others expressed political disagreement, stating they would not support RFK Jr., despite appreciating the quality of the advertisement.
• There seems to be a perceived conflict between RFK Jr.'s actions and the legacy of his family, leading some to believe his views are more conservative than those of his relatives.
• He also drew criticism from Libertarians, implying that he supports a heavily government-involved economic system.
• There was some support following the ad, showing enthusiastic about his independent campaign and anticipation for the announcement of his running mate.
• A few praise the Super Bowl ad as being effective in spreading the word of his presidential bid, particularly among older demographics.
• A notable number of individuals express a sense of nostalgia in response to his ad, even if they do not support him for president.

Questions About Funding

A portion of the conversation also revolved around the Super Bowl ad's creation and dissemination. RFK Jr. clarified in a tweet that the ad was made and aired without his campaign's involvement or approval. He apologized, explaining that Federal Election Commission (FEC) rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with him or his staff.

• Some are wary of the sources of his campaign funding, with allegations of being backed by one of Trump's biggest donors sparking controversy
• There is also controversy around the use of family members' images in the ad, with suggestions that RFK Jr's views on healthcare are contrary to his family’s.
• Some view RFK Jr.’s apology as a necessary step towards resolving a family dispute, while others see it as an admission of his controversial stance on healthcare.
• The Super Bowl ad seems to have successfully sparked discussion and debate around RFK Jr.’s political stances, attracting both support and criticism. It has has effectively raised his profile and generated significant attention, although whether this will translate into broader political support remains to be seen.

Although many Democrats online express support for the Biden administration, the party as a whole, and include VP Harris, there is question about whether she alone could maintain even Biden’s decreasing levels of confidence among the American people.

Comparing Harris to other politicians in her party, MIG data suggests that her popularity is lower than President Biden's, even among Democrats.

• In the last 30 days, Harris has shown an average approval of 46% compared to Biden’s 49%.
• Harris’ 30-day low of 42% trails 6 points behind Biden’s low of 48% and only rose above Biden once on February 5.

How Democrats Talk about VP Harris

Although both receive criticism, it appears more focused on Harris, with more negative remarks directed at her.

• Some conversations imply that she is seen as an insurance policy against impeachment for President Biden, rather than providing value on her own merits.
• Democrats generally show support for Harris, praising her accomplishments and expressing hope for her future success, but mostly lauding her as a symbol of representation.
• She is celebrated by many Democrats for her historic role as the first female Vice President.
• Democrats do express concern over her performance, suggesting that the administration needs to find better ways to communicate its achievements to the public.
• Many defend Harris and Biden against criticism and reaffirm their intention to vote for the Democratic party in future elections, regardless of current sentiment.
• This position is expressed along with frustration at her performance and suggestions she is less popular than some of her Democratic counterparts.

Praise and Criticism for Kamala Harris

There are some positives which Harris supporters point out.

• The VP is celebrated for her involvement in initiatives like Transit Equity Day.
• It's clear that her identity as the first woman, first Black woman, and first Asian American woman to be Vice President is a source of pride.
• People often praise her experience as a former senator and attorney general of California.
• Her support for progressive policies such as climate change, equality, and healthcare is greatly appreciated within the party.
• While she has a strong base of support among Democrats, she is also the subject of intense criticism.
• Many view Harris as less experienced and more ideologically driven than Biden.
• Some Democrats express concerns about her past record as a prosecutor in California and her handling of key assignments.
• She has also received criticism for her performance and inaction as Border Czar.
• Many in her own party expressed dissatisfaction at her management of the border, with some going as far as to call for her impeachment.
• There are complaints about perceived lack of visibility and effectiveness in her role, and concerns about low approval ratings as the 2024 election nears.
• There is worry that her past stances on criminal justice issues could alienate progressive voters and harm the party's chances in future elections.
• There is a sense of disappointment among some Democrats due to perceived underperformance and lack of tangible action.
• A primary concern among Democrats is a perceived lack of transparency and accountability.
• Many criticize what they perceive as her inability to effectively communicate and defend the administration's policies.
• Another complaint is her perceived lack of visibility regarding major policy issues.
• Some argue she has not been proactive in advancing the Biden administration's policy agenda and worry that she may not be prepared to assume the presidency if needed.
• Several voters indicate a concern about the potential for Harris to become President, either through the 25th amendment or in the event of the impeachment of President Biden.

Comparatively, Harris seems to be less popular than many politicians within her own party. This perception is driven by her low approval ratings.

The discourse surrounding Joe Biden's cognitive abilities has been a contentious topic across all political spectrums. Americans perceived his recent press conference as an unmitigated disaster and even his defenders cannot continue to ignore the rumors of his decline.

In the 24 hours since the Special Council report detailed Biden’s mental unfitness to face charges in a classified document case, and after his contentious press conference, Biden’s approval has yet to take a significant hit. While this could still change, one implication could be that Democrats still intend to vote along party lines, even if they believe he is mentally unfit for office.

• In the last day, Biden’s approval remained strong at 48% and Trump saw a slight bump from 47% to 48%.

The top discussion topics regarding the president online in the last 24 hours include:

Reactions to the Special Council Report

Online discussion predictably reflected partisan divides in the aftermath of the Special Council’s report calling Biden a “Sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

• Republicans expressed disappointment and anger, suggesting that the decision not to charge him was a product of bias and not reflective of the truth.
• Many cited the very similar charges brought against Trump as evidence of a two-tier justice system.
• Republicans say the decision not to charge Biden was politically motivated and determining Biden unfit for charges but fit for office is an untenable contradiction.
• There are calls for the application of the 25th Amendment or impeachment, as well as suggestions that the same leniency wasn't extended to former President Trump.
• Many Democrats saw the refusal to charge as a vindication of Biden and a repudiation of what they perceive as baseless accusations.
• Some suggest that Biden's focus may have been elsewhere due to the complex and numerous issues he is dealing with, like the crisis in Ukraine and the attack by Hamas.
• They are focusing on the fact that Biden will not face charges, rather than the salience of the reasons given by the DOJ.
• Despite most Democrats avoiding the issue prior to the report, there is now some expressed concern it gives credence to doubts about Biden's cognitive abilities.
• Some Democrats acknowledge concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities, but they primarily view these as character attacks, expressing support for Biden and Harris.
• A few have admitted the special counsel's assessment of Biden's cognitive abilities is concerning, questioning if someone unfit for trial should continue as POTUS.

Conversations Following the President’s Confused Press Conference

Many people across all political affiliations commented on Biden’s confusion about Gaza, the Mexico border, and the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. However, explanations for his confusion differed depending on political affiliation.

• Republicans pointed out that Biden made these egregious errors directly after defending his fitness and denying any memory problems, using it as evidence of his decline.
• They suggest the press conference confirmed the special counsel's report about Biden’s poor memory and deteriorating cognition.
• Democrats continue to dismiss these concerns, pointing out that occasional verbal gaffes are common among all politicians, regardless of age or cognitive fitness.
• Many Democrats also cited the complex nature of the issues he was addressing, claiming mistakes are not indicative of dementia or other cognitive deteriorations.
• Some Democrats compared Biden to former President Trump, asserting that Biden's actions were not as damaging or obstructive as Trump's.

It is clear that bias and party loyalty is shaping public perceptions about Biden’s mistakes which, everyone now admits, are noticeable. This highlights the deep-seated divisions within the current political landscape.

In a recent Las Vegas rally, President Biden shored up support from Nevada Democrats before winning the Nevada Primary this Tuesday. With few real Democrat challengers, Biden aimed much of his speech at his inevitable challenger, former President Donald Trump, in what Newsweek called Biden’s, “Angriest Speech Yet”. However, the subject matter of Biden’s fiery critique of Trump was quickly overshadowed by yet another gaffe from the 81 year old Commander-in-Chief. Biden told the audience of Nevadans that at the beginning of his Presidency, he met with G20 leaders and he spoke to a French President who died in 1996. The clip of yet another Biden senior moment was viewed 21 million times on X, with 11,000 reposts and 40,000 likes.

MIG’s report revealed the President’s appearance in the Silver state did little to sway Nevada, both in approval for Biden and in head to head support vs Trump. Much of the online discussions surrounding Biden revealed themes of either dismay at the state of the Biden’s America or serious nostalgia for the Trump Presidency.

By the Numbers

MIG’s data reveals that after Biden’s Sunday speech (2/4) in Las Vegas, his approval amongst online discussants remained stuck in the mid 40% range, rising only 1% the day of his speech.

• This matches the response to President Trump’s visit to Nevada in late January, when his approval also mariginally rose from 44% to 45% the day of his speech. But Trump’s approval rose to 48% that week when legal developments involving the President broke.

In head to head support analysis, MIG found that in Nevada over the last month:

• Trump averaged 50% support.
  
• Biden averages 41% support.
  
• RFK jr. averaged 9% support.

Biden also trails Trump on key issues in Nevada:

• On the economy, online discussions still show Trump beating Biden 47% to 41%.
  
• On Border Security, Trump trounces Biden 47% to 39%.
  
• On the Topic of Security Issues, Trump Holds 44% to Biden’s 38%.
  

The Trump Show

The lack of approval changes after both Biden and Trump’s speeches in Nevada reflects a broader trend seen in politics: campaigning directly to voters, known as retail politics is useless against Trump.

• Instead, Trump’s ability leverage charisma and media to connect with the electorate has controlled the political narrative-by framing establishment prosecutions as attacks against the silent majority.
  
• MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions centering on Trump demonstrated “Trump's narrative of being an outsider battling against a corrupt system resonates with his supporters. When he is prosecuted, it bolsters this narrative and makes him appear as a martyr fighting against a rigged system.”
  
• Biden’s cognitive decline leaves little ability to leverage media in the way his predecessor does, leaving Biden strategists to focus on Biden’s policies.

BideNOmics

Yet the Biden strategy of focusing on policy is already proving fruitless, as analysis by MIG in both Clark County and Nevada shows:

• In Nevada, amongst online users discussing Biden, “There is a perception among users that Biden is favoring non-citizens over U.S. citizens, particularly in reference to immigration and housing issues.”
  
• Negative sentiment on the economy is also strong in Clark County specifically, where MIG found:
  • “concerns about the increasing rent prices and unaffordable housing, which some attribute to "Bidenomics".”
    
  • More generally, “Frustration over increasing living costs under Biden's administration, with some individuals claiming their cost of living has significantly increased.”

Make America Great Again, Again

Biden’s strategy of contrasting his Presidency with Trump to Nevadans falls flat beyond its own merits, with many highlighting preference for the Trump Presidency. MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions comparing Trump to Biden found:

• Foreign Policy: “Many comments compare Biden's Presidency with Trump's..people seem to believe that Trump had a more peaceful approach to foreign policy, refraining from starting new wars, and had a better relationship with countries like Russia and North Korea.”
  
• Immigration: “Criticism of Biden often centers on the perceived lack of control over the southern border and the potential implications for crime and the economy. These users view Biden's policies as too lenient, leading to an increase in illegal immigration.” While other “users believe that Trump was better at enforcing immigration laws and protecting the border, and criticize Biden for his stance on immigration.”
  
• Despite media framing of Trump holding back immigration reform, Nevadans who appear to not even be Republicans continue to slam Biden, “People are comparing Biden's policies to previous administrations, particularly those of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, criticizing Biden for not being as assertive on immigration issues.”
  
• Handling of the Economy: “Some users argue that Trump was better at managing the economy, pointing to the GDP growth under his administration.”

Looking Ahead

Despite Biden’s Las Vegas rally and a strong primary win, the incumbent President’s campaign looks increasingly helpless in the face of a dominant showing by Donald Trump in swing states like Nevada and national polling in general.

The best campaign gurus of the left can do little to twist reality of what life was like during the Trump Presidency compared to now in the eyes of voters, nor can they make the noticeably 81 year old President seem any younger.

MIG's analysis underscores a stagnant approval rating for Biden in the face of an enduring appeal on Trump era policies on the economy, border security, and national security. Even if the unemployment rate continues to remains strong and inflation plateaus, Biden's message will continue to be overshadowed by Trump’s dominance of the news cycle and gaffes that fuel discussions about his fitness for office. This reflects a broader trend in American politics where charismatic leadership and dominance of media presence increasingly overshadow traditional retail politics. It becomes more and more clear that there is little Biden can do to win the hearts and minds of voters in an era of personality and vibes driven politics that Trump has mastered.

AOC, Illhan Omar, and Cori Bush finds themselves embroiled in chaos of their own doing, as members navigate investigations, defending Biden, and questions of national allegiance. Representative Cori Bush (D-MO) faces a damning DOJ and FEC investigation over misuse of campaign and government funds, while Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-MN) grapples with the fallout from what many have called a “Somalia First” speech, shocking conservatives and globalist Democrats alike. Meanwhile, AOC faces fire from both Israel defenders and Pro-Palestine radicals for defending both Biden and the UN’s shady ties to Hamas.

Cori Bush: Police For Me, Not For Thee

• Rep. Cori Bush, a second-term lawmaker who paved her path to Congress casting herself as an anti-police zealot has found herself in the DOJ’s crosshairs over misuse of government and campaign funds made to her now-husband, who was part of her private security team.
• Bush confirmed her cooperation with the Department of Justice's investigation, but bemoaned that “right wing organizations have lodged baseless complaints against me, peddling notions that I have misused campaign funds”. Yet, the investigation into Bush is also being conducted by the Federal Election Commission, which oversees campaign finance crimes.

What they’re saying

• In part of her defense, Bush argued the security expenses were necessary for her personal safety. Bush’s comments were met with the usual ire seen from right wing voices, with Tomi Lahren telling Fox News radio listeners, “Bush was one of the loudest voices in the BLM fight to “defund the police,” but turns out she only wanted YOUR protection to be reduced.”
  
• Bush’s duplicity was even too much for far left talking heads to ignore. Cenk Uyghur of “The Young Turks", a far left youtube channel with 1.5 million subscribers, echoed Lahren’s comments, telling listeners, “is there a sense of irony here, no protection for you but protection for me?" to which co-host Ana Kasparian quipped back "In situations where you can't rely on police, just hire private police-it only costs hundreds of thousands of dollars".

By the Numbers

• MIG reports found that the perception of disconnect between Bush’s politics and lifestyle is also held by everyday Americans, and it’s sullying the Squad’s reputation as a whole.
  
• MIG’s AI summary analysis found that in discussions surrounding Bush online, “posts link the investigation to Bush's ideological affiliations, particularly her membership in the "Squad." Users online suggest that Bush and her allies are hypocritical and corrupt.”
  
• The negative sentiment circling Bush online registered strongly, with MIG’s data showing the St. Louis rep’s online approval dropping 8% the day after the investigations were announced.

Illhan Omar: Somalia First, not America First

• Congresswoman Illhan Omar threw more fuel into the Squad’s chaos in late January as well. Omar, who has made frequent anti-semitic accusations of “dual loyalty” in Congress to Israel, created doubt over her own loyalty to the U.S. after demanding Somalia come first in US Foreign Policy in a speech in Minneapolis. "The US will do what we want, nothing else.”, Omar declared. “They must follow our orders. That is how we safeguard the interests of Somalia."
  
• Republicans Fire Back: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced a censure resolution aimed at Omar over what the Georgia firebrand called "treasonous statements.". Republican Rep. Tom Emmer added to Greene’s lawfare, announcing an ethics complaint directed at Omar.
  
• MIG online discussion analysis on Omar during this period and found a dramatic drop in her approval levels:
  • Following the January 27th speech, Omar’s approval dropped from 45% to 37%.
    
  • Omar’s approval average in the 10 days prior to the speech rested at 46%, while her approval in the 10 days since the speech averaged 41%.
    
• MIG’s summary analysis discovered strong negative sentiment amongst Americans discussing Omar’s Somalia First speech, finding:
  • “The online discussion about Ilhan Omar is highly polarized and leans mostly negative...participants express dissatisfaction and disappointment with her recent comments, which they interpret as her prioritizing her Somali identity and loyalty to Somalia over her American identity and responsibilities.”
    
  • “They accuse her of having a special relationship with the President of Somalia, referring to him as "our president," which they interpret as a sign of disloyalty to the United States.”
    
  • “Additionally, there are accusations of her supporting Sharia Law and wanting to introduce it to the United States, which is causing further negative sentiment towards her.”
    

AOC Faces Dual Criticism

Adding to the Squad's controversies, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez found herself caught in crossfire, facing criticism from both Palestinian and Israeli supporters. MIG analysis of online discussions directed at the New York Congresswoman revealed multifaceted criticisms:

• Perceived Support for Hamas: “Users criticize AOC for her perceived support for Hamas, a group they consider to be a terrorist organization, by endorsing the restoration of funding to UNRWA, which they believe indirectly benefits Hamas.”
  
• Understanding of Gaza Situation: “Some users express disappointment in AOC, suggesting she lacks a comprehensive understanding of Gaza and arguing that Hamas leaders should provide aid to Palestinians instead of relying on international organizations.”
  
• Accusation of Inconsistency: “Critics accuse AOC of inconsistency, transitioning from tears over funding Israel's Iron Dome to denying genocide, lowering her online sentiment.”
  
• Criticisms Over Support for Biden: “AOC faces negative sentiment from users who disagree with her endorsement of Joe Biden due to their own political disagreements or misalignment of her progressive ideals with Biden's centrist policies.”
  
• MIG’s analysis of the conversations surrounding AOC following her Meet the Press interview found her approval dropped 7%, while earning 37% approval on the topic of Palestine and 38% on the topic of Israel.

Looking Ahead

The ongoing scrutiny engulfing the Squad is another revealing episode that underscores the discrepancy between the supposed voice of the working class left and the reality of politicians that play by their own rules. The attention earned by self imposed chaos will deal significant blows to the image and strategy of the Progressive movement and, by extension, the Democratic Party as a whole. As the far left lawmakers grapple with the fallout of voters realizing the reality of who the Squad is, the Democratic party will continue to face PR challenges of winning over voters in a nation that increasingly demands those that represent them play by the same rules as Americans, regardless of wealth, status, or job title.

MIG data is showing a deep polarization in views about Biden's health and his potential reelection. In many conversations, there's a subtext of worry over Biden’s cognitive abilities that spans all political views. However, it's often used as a talking point rather than an expression of concern for Biden's well-being.

Republicans tend to leverage Biden’s health to criticize his capability as a leader, Democrats downplay it to counteract Republican narratives, and Independents use it as part of broader discussions on policy and leadership.

Discussions About Whether Biden is Running the Country

While views about Biden’s cognitive fitness generally divide along party lines, there is a brewing discussion about whether he is the one making important decisions.

• Most supporters believe Biden is running the country effectively, citing his focus on climate change, infrastructure, and healthcare.
• They appreciate his calm demeanor and his effort to unite the country after a contentious and polarized period.

However, a significant number of Americans express skepticism about Biden's leadership. They question his mental and physical fitness, often pointing to his age and recurring verbal gaffes.

• Generally right leaning, this group implies that there might be others "pulling the strings," as they suggest that Biden cannot be fully in charge.
• Speculation about actual decision makers include the Democratic Party's more progressive members.
• Names are mentioned like Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and The Squad, and various interest groups advocating for progressive causes.
• There is also a widespread belief among some circles that "woke" culture and corporations significantly influence Biden's policies.
• This sentiment is often expressed in discussions around issues such as race, gender, and social justice, with critics arguing that Biden is bending to the will of these progressive forces.
• Some theories suggest a shadowy, deep-state influence, implying that unknown entities might are controlling the presidency. But these theories are generally dismissed as misinformation.

It is noteworthy that these perspectives vary widely, often falling along partisan lines. Biden's supporters tend to view him as effectively running the country, while his critics are typically the ones who view his leadership skeptically.

Democrats Avoid Talking About Biden’s Cognitive Abilities

National Conversations

Democrats tend to be relatively quiet about about Biden's frequent gaffes and lack of unscripted public appearances. This suggests that Democrats may have unspoken concerns which they’re not willing to voice publicly.

• While Democrats sometimes acknowledge Biden’s coherence issues, they do not seem to view them as indicative of mental decline or as disqualifying for a potential reelection.
• Democrat commentary generally defends Biden, pointing to his achievements and dismissing criticisms of his mental health as unfounded.
• Due to the dismissiveness on the subject, one could infer that Democrats might be more supportive of Biden's policies and perhaps less likely to view his age or health as important.
• Democrats tend to argue that Biden has been an effective leader and deserves reelection.
• They rebut Republican accusations of mental decline by suggesting that these are politically motivated attacks.
• Some Democrats do express concern about the effectiveness of Biden's messaging, indicating that they believe he needs to do a better job of promoting his accomplishments.

Counter-Narratives About Trump’s Cognitive Abilities

In many discussions, Democrats argue that Trump’s mental state is equally questionable or even worse than Biden’s.

• Many refer to Trump's cognitive abilities negatively when Biden is brought up.
• They often recall instances during his presidency where his behavior or remarks were seen as erratic, unorthodox, or even authoritarian.

Swing State Democrats

In key states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and other swing states, Democrats generally align with national party sentiment, although there is more noticeable concern.

• National approval for Biden has averaged 49% in the last 30 days, while approval in swing states averaged 44%.

• Some swing state voters argue that Biden’s potential cognitive decline is being exaggerated or manipulated for political gain.
• There is noticeable dismissal when concerns are brought up, mirroring the national conversation.
• Many swing state Democrats do not directly mention Biden's health or potential mental decline.
• Lack of discussion may be due to an overshadowing anti-Trump sentiment within the party.
• However, there are some Democrats voicing concern about Biden's potential cognitive decline, arguing that it could harm the party's chances in future elections.
• A large segment of swing state Democrats seem to take issue with Republican narratives, but will not explicitly defend Biden's cognitive abilities.
• There is a clear divide among swing state Democrats about a potential Biden second term, with some expressing strong support and others voicing doubts.

Republicans View Biden as Clearly in Decline

National Conversations

Overall, Republicans tend to be most vocal about the possibility that Joe Biden is not actually running the country, but rather has “handlers” guiding him. They often express concerns about what they see as clear cognitive decline.

• Republicans frequently express concerns about Biden's mental acuity. They point to his recurring verbal stumbles, confusion, and gaffes as evidence of cognitive decline.
• They often cite Biden’s age, physical weakness, and frequent confusion as evidence of his decline.
• There are many references to Biden forgetting important details, or misspeaking. His recent mistake in mixing up Macron and Mitterrand has been a recent point of interest.
• There are repeated suggestions that Biden is "gaslighting" the public for votes or acting out of treasonous motivations.
• Many express concern over potential corruption and general incompetence within the Biden administration.
• Strong sentiments of disbelief and frustration are present, with some voters calling for Biden’s impeachment or for him to undergo cognitive testing.
• Many Republicans feel that Biden's lack of press appearances and obfuscation from his spokespeople are indicative of a more serious health issue.
• They also seem to believe that Biden's reelection would be terrible for the country due to a low probability of his completing a second term.
• This narrative is often accompanied by criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, with detractors suggesting that she is unqualified or ineffective in her role.