As Republican enthusiasm surges following the RNC and Democrats show disagreement and disarray, Senate races in several key states are heating up. Amid a huge news week including Trump’s attempted assassination, J.D. Vance accepting the VP nomination, and the RNC convention, Republicans are making a strong showing in their respective Senate races.

Here is the latest EyesOver and MIG Reports analysis of Senate races in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Montana—all important races for the 2024 elections.

Nevada Senate: Sam Brown vs Jacky Rosen

The Nevada Senate race between Republican Sam Brown and Democrat Jacky Rosen shows Brown leading 60%-40% in head-to-head support. The wide gap in support comes from a significant spike in both approval and mentions for Sam Brown after his RNC appearance.

• Over the last 7 days, Brown's lowest topic approval score is ideologies (culture issues) at 43%, while Rosen's lowest issue is the economy at 43%.
• Brown's highest topic score is a tie between economic issues and border security at 47%. Rosen's strongest topic approval of border security is still low at 42%.
• The top three most discussed topics in discourse mentioning Brown and Rosen were ideologies, economic issues, and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

Candidate Summary

Sam Brown and Jacky Rosen's approval disparity has widened this week after being tied last week. In the last 7 days, Brown saw a 4% lead in approval, averaging 48% to Rosen's 44% in average approval. Brown also saw higher discussion volume than Rosen for the first time over the last 7 days.

Wisconsin Senate: Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde

The Wisconsin Senate race between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde currently shows Hovde leading 57%-43% in head-to-head support. Eric Hovde enjoyed a spike in online mentions due to the RNC.

• Over the last 7 days, Baldwin’s weakest topic approval is border security at 43%. While Hovde’s lowest topic approval score is abortion at 41%.
• Eric Hovde's strongest topics gaining approval are economic issues and border security, both at 47%. Baldwin's highest topic approval is abortion, also at 47%.
• The top three most discussed topics in discourse involving Baldwin and Hovde are ideologies (cultural issues), the economy, and Trump’s attempted assassination.

Candidate Summary

The gap between Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin's voter approval significantly widened compared to last week. Prior to the RNC, both were tied in approval. This week Eric Hovde holds a 47% 7-day average approval to Tammy Baldwin's 42%. This is also the first time Hovde has gained higher discussion volume than Baldwin.

Arizona Senate: Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego

In the race for Arizona Senate, Republican Kari Lake currently holds a narrow lead over Democrat Ruben Gallego, capturing 52% compared to Gallego's 48%.

• On the issues, Kari Lake has the highest support for immigration issues, election integrity, and economic issues, all at 48%.
• Lake’s lowest sentiment issue is gun control at 40%, due to accusations from liberals about her 2A stances following the assassination attempt.
• Ruben Gallego’s highest issue approval is ideologies at 44%.
• His lowest is allegations, which refer to his association with Joe Biden and other unpopular liberals.

Candidate Summary

Ruben Gallego's support score stands at 42%, while Kari Lake's support score is slightly higher at 47%. While the race has been volatile over the last month, this week Lake has maintained an average lead.

Montana Senate: Tim Sheehy vs Jon Tester

Republican Tim Sheehy also holds a lead on Jon Tester in head-to-head support in Montana. Sheehy leads at 53% to Tester’s 47%.

• Over the last 7 days, Sheehy’s highest topic approval score is border security at 47%. Tester’s strongest topic approval score is abortion at 45%.
• Tester's weakest topic approval score is rally at 40%, while Sheehy's is abortion at 41%.
• The three most discussed topics in discourse involving Sheehy and Tester are ideologies, rally, and economic issues.

Candidate Summary

Sheehy and Tester's approval scores remain separated by the same 2% margin as last week, with Tester averaging 44% to Sheehy's 46%. Tester's approval dropped to its lowest point in the last 7 days after the assassination attempt on President Trump but has since recovered.

In recent days, discussions among Democratic leaders regarding President Joe Biden stepping down from the 2024 election have stirred significant controversy. Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff, Kamala Harris, and Hakeem Jeffries appear to be at the center of these conversations. There are also allegations that former president Barrack Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders have called for Biden to step aside.

Speculation about leadership's motives, along with intrigue around the Democratic strategy, is surging, even with much high-profile news happening within the GOP.

Ongoing reporting claims sources indicate Democratic leaders are conducting private talks with Biden, urging him to reconsider his candidacy. They cite his waning ability to win the presidential race and his very publicly declining health. Reports from multiple news outlets suggest these leaders are positioning themselves for a possible leadership transition by delaying the Democratic Party's formal nomination of Biden.

The Current Political Environment

Earth-shattering events in recent weeks like Joe Biden’s debate debacle and an attempt on Donald Trump’s life seem to have sent Democratic political strategies into a tailspin. If the Democrats face an uphill battle in the polls, any pivot on Biden's health will likely significantly hurt his chances of a victory in November. This could push swing voters and even some disenchanted Democrats toward Republicans.

Amid increasing beliefs that Democrats cannot win, their sudden revelations about President Biden’s health only reinforces perceptions of desperation. This is likely to depress voter turnout among their base even further, pushing undecided voters away.

Media portrayal of Biden's health also plays a crucial role in shaping voter perception. Many right leaning outlets have been pointing out the hypocrisy of mainstream media in demonizing anyone who questioned Biden’s health prior to the debate. This is especially egregious as voters observe their instant pivot after the debate.

Voters are increasingly critical of Democrats’ handling of Biden's health. For a long time, the party and the media have downplayed or outright denied any concerns regarding Biden's age and mental acuity. Many voters view this as blatant gaslighting, exacerbating the sense of distrust.

When prominent figures suddenly acknowledge Biden's health issues, many view it as a political maneuver rather than a genuine concern for transparency, further eroding Democratic credibility.

Chuck Schumer Jumps Ship

Senator Chuck Schumer’s involvement in calling for Biden to withdraw adds to the Democratic confusion, given his influential position within the Party. Reactions are mixed, oscillating between support, skepticism, and outright shock. There are voices questioning the timing and motivation behind his alleged meeting asking Biden to step down. Many say Democrats are in pure panic mode.

Social media reactions are particularly telling. Various platforms are flooded with discussions attempting to deconstruct Schumer's motivations and the broader implications for the Democratic Party. Supporters of the decision commend Schumer's bravery, suggesting it signals a period of self-reflection and recalibration within the party. Critics, however, view it as cynical. Others criticize internal conflicts during a crucial election cycle.

• Discussions mentioning Chuck Schumer increased in the last two days as his approval dropped slightly from 48% to 47%.

Adam Schiff Flip Flops

Adam Schiff's previous criticism Robert Hur’s assessment of Joe Biden’s health have sparked a considerable backlash. Now, just a few months later, Schiff is calling for Biden to step down due to infirmity.

Voters have not minced words in their responses, voicing strong support for Biden and criticizing Schiff for what they see as unnecessary and harmful dissent. They perceive Schiff's actions as undermining the unity needed in the Democratic Party to win the upcoming election. Some even call for Schiff to withdraw from the Senate race.

Sentiment among these voters is one of frustration and anger. They accuse Schiff of attempting to invalidate the voices of the 14 million people who voted for Biden. They say his actions are damaging to the Party's 2024 strategy.

Voters are particularly incensed with what they perceive as Schiff's hypocrisy. They say Schiff supported Biden in the past and criticized anyone who questioned his health, only to now use his cognitive abilities as a reason to oust the President.

Many find this sudden change not only disingenuous but also deeply cynical. The sentiment is clear: any attack on Biden at this critical juncture is seen as sabotage, possibly paving the way for a Trump victory.

• Adam Schiff has seen disastrously low approval in the last week, dipping as low as 30%.
• As more people mention him online, sentiment may be restabilizing, but it’s unclear whether most Democratic voters support replacing Joe Biden.

Nancy Pelosi Tears Biden a New One

Nancy Pelosi also seemed to suddenly turn on Joe Biden following his catastrophic debate performance. Pelosi, who is known for her high-level political strategy and maneuvering, spoke out more subtly against Biden at first. But now reports are leaking that Pelosi is openly opposing Joe Biden after years of steadfast defense.

Some Democratic voters express staunch disapproval, arguing Pelosi's actions undermine voter confidence and betray the will of the people. They view this move as a signal of discord within the Democratic Party, potentially handing an advantage to the Republicans.

On the other hand, a smaller number support Pelosi’s stance, advocating for a change in leadership as a strategic move to invigorate the base and improve Democratic chances against a resurgent GOP. They argue Biden’s age and current political standing necessitate a new candidate who can better unify the party and appeal to a broader base.

• At the end of last week, as rumors about Biden stepping down were swirling at their height, Pelosi’s approval dipped to 37%.
• As more Democratic leaders join in calling for Biden to step down, negativity seems to move to other prominent figures.

Voter reactions

Democratic voters are likely to have varied reactions to this abrupt development within the Party. Many of President Biden’s supporters see this strife as a betrayal by key figures within the party. There's a palpable sense of distrust and concern that such an internal coup reflects poorly on the Party's unity and strategic planning.

The immediate and intense debate on social media highlights the factional divides. Some fear sidelining Biden at this juncture could lead to a guaranteed loss.

Meanwhile, those who are frustrated with Biden's age and perceived political liabilities might welcome the calls for new leadership. This faction views a potential change as a strategic necessity to invigorate the party with fresh perspectives and renewed energy.

Overall, Democratic voters are caught in a whirlwind of emotions ranging from anger and betrayal to despair and depression. The discussions over Biden’s candidacy expose deep concerns within the party about its ability to present a unified front in the upcoming elections.

The extent of Democratic disillusionment has led some to consider re-registering as Independents or leaving the Party altogether. They see leadership hypocrisy and maneuvering as a betrayal of democratic principles. Some also interpret these developments as driven by wealthy donors rather than the electorate's genuine interests. This shift could signal a broader discontent that may bode poorly for November.

On the opening day of the RNC, Teamsters President Sean O’Brien delivered the keynote speech as the first union leader to ever speak at the RNC. In reaction, discussions about labor unions and the political support of union members toward either Joe Biden or Donald Trump flooded social media.

MIG Reports data shows union members are vocal about several major topics, revealing insights into their political leanings, the controversies that shape their views, and the prevailing trends in discourse and sentiment.

Union-First: It’s a Mixed Bag

Discussions among union members about their political support for Joe Biden or Donald Trump reveal nuances. There are some key themes such as taxation, the economy, trade policies, healthcare, and labor rights.

Taxation

Many union members are dissatisfied with policies favoring the wealthy and increasing the tax burden on the middle class. Biden supporters appreciate his efforts to reduce unemployment and increase wages. Trump's critics highlight his tax reforms as benefiting the affluent.

Economy

Biden supporters credit his policies for reducing inflation, lowering gas prices, creating jobs, and emphasizing benefits for the working class. Trump supporters argue his deregulation and corporate tax cuts stimulate economic growth, though critics say these measures favor businesses over workers.

Trade Policies

Trump's tariffs and trade wars are seen as protective, but criticized by opponents for increasing costs and financial strain on Americans. Opinions are mixed on the effectiveness of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

Healthcare and Social Security

Biden supporters value his commitment to expanding social safety nets, while Trump's stance on reducing government spending and repealing the Affordable Care Act raises concerns about benefits and affordable healthcare among union members.

Labor Rights

Many union members support Biden for his pro-union stance and support for collective bargaining, contrasting with Trump's actions which are perceived as weakening union power.

Corporate Influence and Elitism

Trump gets criticism for being corporate-friendly and pandering to elite interests. His supporters praise his anti-establishment rhetoric and efforts to dismantle entrenched political systems. 

Union Workers

Conversations about union workers expose sharp political divides, particularly their support for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Key areas of contention include union leadership endorsements, policy impacts, and the broader implications of political alliances on labor rights and worker conditions.

Union Leadership and Support

Biden often garners support from union leaders and members who emphasize his pro-labor stances. Leaders like Liz Shuler of the AFL-CIO call Biden the "most pro-union president in history." They highlight his efforts to promote labor rights, increase investments in new industries, and foster training and apprenticeship programs. Union leaders and members who favor Biden highlight the positive impacts on labor and the economy, aligning with historically labor-friendly Democratic positions.

Trump’s relationship with labor unions is contentious. Union members who support Trump often praise his economic policies and efforts to bring jobs back to the United States. However, many union leaders oppose Trump, labeling him anti-union due to his administration’s labor policies, which they argue weakened labor protections, undermined collective bargaining, and promoted right-to-work laws that diminish union power.

Policy Impacts and Economic Approaches

Union members favoring Biden argue his administration supports labor union goals and protects worker rights. Conversely, Trump supporters within unions argue his economic policies led to job growth and prosperity, though these claims are often disputed by union leadership pointing to the negative impact of his labor policies.

Sentiment Trends

Pro-Biden sentiment among union members includes trust in his commitment to labor rights and his administration's tangible successes. Pro-Trump union members exhibit enthusiasm for his economic policies and frustration with union leadership, which they perceive as out of touch or excessively partisan.

Controversial Topics

Immigration is a contentious issue, with some union members criticizing Biden's policies for potentially undercutting wages by flooding the labor market. Trump’s stance is seen as protecting domestic jobs.

Political Realignment

There is anxiety over union leadership's engagement with conservative politicians. Events like Sean O’Brien’s appearance at the Republican National Convention evoke strong reactions. Critics within unions protest any engagement with Republicans, citing historical antagonism toward labor unions in conservative policies. Some union members warn that Republican overtures toward labor unions may be strategic moves to weaken them later.

Broader Implications

Union-related conversations about Biden and Trump are deeply divided, reflecting broader political polarizations. Union leadership generally supports Biden while criticizing Trump’s labor policies.

However, a significant faction within rank-and-file union members perceives benefits in Trump’s economic approach. This dynamic continues to provoke vibrant debate and starkly contrasting sentiments among union members, encapsulating the broader national discourse on labor and political allegiance.

Reactions to the first day of the Republican National Convention garnered a range of responses including support and criticism. One of the biggest news stories from opening day was Trump’s announcement of his pick for vice president.

VP Nomination

Trump selecting J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate generated most of the news on Monday. Reactions to this choice are largely positive among conservative circles, with many the choices as a strategic move that could bolster support for Trump’s potential second term.

However, there are undercurrents of skepticism as well. Some conservatives express doubts about Vance’s past comments on Trump, fearing he might later downplay his allegiance to the administration.

Too Much of the Same and Too Much Change

Another significant topic is the overall organization and leadership of the convention. Opinions are divided here, with some attendees praising the convention’s coordination and the lineup of speakers.

However, there are also criticisms, particularly aimed at perceived favoritism and the alignment of the convention's themes with specific Republican figures. Some conservatives feel the convention did not cater adequately to all segments of the party.

The presence of non-traditional American conservatism and non-Christian elements within the convention’s content and speaker roster garners mixed reactions. While inclusivity is celebrated by some as a reflection of a modern and evolving party, others within right-leaning circles criticize this shift. These critics argue it dilutes traditional conservative values and alienates core constituents who uphold more conventional views.

Trending Sentiment

Concerns around issues of security at the convention come into sharp focus, especially following a shooting incident in Albuquerque and attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Right-leaning audiences display significant concern over security measures, with discussions highlighting perceived inadequacies in the Secret Service’s preparedness to protect prominent figures like Trump. This issue stirs anxiety and dissatisfaction among many Republicans who emphasize the need for robust security protocols.

There is also considerable attention on potential 2024 Democratic strategies to counter the Trump-Vance ticket. Conservative voters and pundits speculate on the lines of attack Democrats might pursue. Some dismiss any strategic options Democrats might pursue as ineffective or a lost cause, given the current political climate. The rhetoric is charged, with many expressing confidence in the resilience of the Trump camp despite anticipated opposition.

There is also enthusiastic support for speakers who embody traditional conservative charisma, such as Tim Scott. His dynamic presence at the convention energizes the crowd and garners favorable reactions, even if he ultimately did not secure the vice-presidential nomination.

Criticism from within the Republican base does exist, particularly concerning allegations of superficial commitments to action over rhetoric. This sentiment is encapsulated in critiques of politicians who are perceived as skilled orators but ineffective in implementing significant changes. This internal critique reflects a thirst for tangible results among the conservative base.

Kicking off the 2024 Republican National Convention, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance was selected as Trump's Vice-Presidential pick. The announcement, made via Trump’s Truth Social platform, has polarized opinions, highlighting various factions within the GOP.

Reactions from the MAGA Base

Among Trump's staunch supporters, the response is largely positive. Many celebrate Vance as a fresh face who embodies the working-class struggles that Trump frequently highlights. Admiration stems from Vance’s transformation from a Never Trump critic to a MAGA advocate.

This segment perceives Vance as a potential successor for Trump’s populist agenda. They also say choosing Vance is a strategic move to secure the Rust Belt states, vital for the 2024 election. His background, including military service and authoring "Hillbilly Elegy," is seen as appealing to blue-collar voters and enhancing Trump's image as a champion of forgotten Americans.

Opposition and Skepticism Within and Beyond the GOP

Skepticism abounds within segments of the GOP and among Independents and Democrats. Critics from within the Republican Party highlight Vance’s previous harsh critiques of Trump, with some labeling him a flip-flopper driven by opportunism rather than genuine conviction.

Those who are wary of Vance often align with "Never Trump" Republicans who view the choice as pandering to Trump’s loyalist base rather than a unifying strategy for the broader party. The concern is that Vance will do little to attract moderate and Independent voters who are critical to winning the general election.

Concerns Over Voter Impact

Analysts and pundits express varying perspectives on how Vance’s candidacy might affect voter turnout. Some argue his selection will invigorate Trump’s base, solidifying support among core MAGA followers. Others contend that Vance lacks the broader appeal necessary to sway undecided voters or pull votes from the Democratic ticket.

Discussions also focus on whether Vance’s past as a Never Trumper might erode trust among unwavering MAGA supporters or if his new alignment with MAGA policies can mend those sentiments.

Sentiment Patterns and Discussion Trends

The overall sentiment trends suggest a polarized reaction. Loyal Trump supporters largely express approval, emphasizing Vance’s alignment with Trump’s policies and his perceived ability to carry on the MAGA legacy. Discussions often revolve around themes of loyalty, transformation, and Vance's potential to attract working-class voters.

On the other hand, detractors focus on his history of criticism against Trump. These sentiments are also echoed by moderate Republicans and Independents who doubt Vance's ability to appeal to a broader electorate. Critics voice concerns that Trump missed an opportunity for a more strategically beneficial choice, such as a candidate who might appeal to suburban women or minority voters.

Patterns Within GOP Factions

Vance’s selection has illuminated rifts within the Republican Party. Trump loyalists celebrate the move as a reinforcement of their influence within the party. However, establishment Republicans and those with a more traditional conservative outlook express reservations, underscoring a preference for a candidate who might bridge the divide between Trump’s base and centrists.

Despite Republicans hoping to keep the spotlight on Biden’s vulnerabilities and panic among Democrats, there is still significant interest in Trump’s choice for a running mate. Current discussions about Donald Trump's potential VP picks are heating up as people anticipate his impending announcement. MIG Reports data suggest top choices in terms of voter support volume and approval sentiment include Ben Carson, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Byron Donalds.

Within MAGA, there is a strong sentiment against anyone viewed as a RINO (Republican in Name Only). Figures like Doug Burgum and Marco Rubio have come under scrutiny for their insufficient alignment with the MAGA agenda.

Conversely, loyalty to Trump and America First is a crucial criterion for many supporters. Names like J.D. Vance and Ben Carson are frequently mentioned as preferable picks. Vance has garnered support for his commitment to America First and his potential appeal to younger and Rust Belt voters. Similarly, Ben Carson receives praise for his loyalty and personal integrity. However, there are concerns about his age and political charisma.

• MIG Reports data shows Ben Carson leading in both voter support at around 15% and approval sentiment staying above 50% in the last week.
• J.D. Vance is both generating buzz and garnering support with a 13% second position and 48% approval.
• Rubio and Donalds both have lesser support, both around 7% and approval around 48% and 52% respectively.

Speculation About Trump’s Strategy

MAGA and GOP voters are speculating about possible strategies Trump make take to choose his running mate. One prevalent theme is his inclination to choose a Vice President who can expand his voter base by adding a fresh and dynamic appeal. With this strategy J.D. Vance frequently emerges as a favored candidate.

Despite some vocal opposition within the conservative sphere over Vance's past criticisms of Trump, his staunch support in recent years has earned him significant backing. Proponents argue that Vance's youth and vigor could help extend Trump's influence.

Some highlight the potential of picking someone with a strong appeal to minority groups and independents. Candidates like Byron Donalds and Doug Burgum are cited for their potential to attract these voter demographics. Donalds, with his compelling life story and intellect, could resonate with educated minorities and counter the Democratic narratives. Meanwhile, Burgum's less controversial, steady leadership style and his appeal to women and independents due to his moderate positions in certain areas are considered valuable.

Lastly, MAGA voters stress the necessity for a VP who aligns closely with Trump’s vision and can enhance his governance without overshadowing him. Loyalty is paramount, for those hoping for someone who won’t divert from Trump’s established agenda. They want a harmonious and effective administration, as many MAGA voters have adopted criticisms of Trump’s former VP Mike Pence.

While ideological alignment and loyalty are paramount, strategic considerations are also at play. For example, the potential disadvantage of removing Vance from the Senate, where every vote is critical, is a point of concern. There are also mixed feelings about selecting a current governor or senator who might face political complications or risks in their home states, which could impact the broader Republican strategy. Several people also mention those they view as out of the running like Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Kristi Noem.

J.D. Vance

JD Vance brings a fresh perspective to the political scene, particularly appealing to younger voters. His non-traditional background and vocal stance against establishment norms mirror Trump’s outsider appeal.

Vance's life story, including his rise from a challenging upbringing to a successful career, resonates with voters who admire resilience and the American Dream narrative. Nonetheless, his past criticisms of Trump and the controversy over his rapid turnaround might alienate some of Trump's hardcore base.

His stance on controversial issues like abortion may polarize the electorate further, potentially undermining his candidacy. However, Vance’s appeal to the Rust Belt may be an asset, as this could help shore up crucial electoral support in that region.

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio comes with significant political experience and a robust foreign policy background. His Cuban heritage and strong stance against Beijing make him an appealing candidate for voters concerned with global issues and Hispanic voter outreach.

Rubio's presidential run in 2016 elevated his profile, making him a recognizable and seasoned choice. Despite these strengths, his earlier clashes with Trump during the 2016 primaries might still linger in the minds of some Trump loyalists. His career political background might not excite the anti-establishment wing of Trump's base, who dislike swamp figures.

Some hope Rubio’s comparatively moderate image may draw in independents and suburban voters. However, many MAGA voters recall his affiliation with establishment politics, labeling him a RINO. Discussions frequently center on his neo-conservative stances, past failures to strongly back Trump during critical moments, and his immigration stance.

Ben Carson

Ben Carson has a significant base due to his unwavering loyalty to Trump and his moral compass, which resonates with many conservative voters. His background as a neurosurgeon and his calm, thoughtful demeanor make him a credible choice for those seeking stability and ethics in leadership.

However, Carson’s relatively low political profile and lack of forceful public presence have some critics labeling him as a "yes man." This diminishes his appeal among voters who want a more dynamic and assertive figure to energize the ticket. He generally appeals to voters who value integrity and decency.

Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds brings a strong narrative to the table, particularly his life story which could resonate with minority voters. His articulate opposition to Democratic policies makes him a favorite among conservatives looking for younger and more diverse leadership within the GOP.

Donalds' appeal lies in his potential to bridge gaps and bring new demographics into the fold, particularly educated minorities who feel disillusioned by current Democratic leadership. However, his relatively recent emergence on the national stage may work against him, as some question if he has the experience necessary.

Byron Donalds, while relatively less talked about in mainstream narratives, has a strong following among hardcore Trump supporters. His credentials as a staunch conservative and his energetic presence resonate with voters who want a VP who can actively fight for Trump’s policies.

Joe Biden's recent "big boy" press conference, as his administration labeled it, took social media by storm. Conversations are primarily driven by his significant gaffes, including referring to Trump as the Vice President and Ukraine president Zelensky as Putin. These missteps are prompting widespread concern about his mental acuity and competence.

Voters are especially worried at a time when clear and decisive leadership is essential. The term "big boy press conference" was used by the press and White House staff to describe what was touted as a pivotal and unscripted press conference. However, most Americans on social media mocked the term, suggesting it is infantilizing and patronizing—although perhaps fitting.

No Flips, No Gains

Most of the American public, particularly those on the right, interpret Biden's mistakes as a troubling sign of cognitive decline. Although groups across parties are vocal in their criticism, arguing that such errors potentially undermine confidence in U.S. leadership on the global stage.

This aspect of the discussion often includes a juxtaposition with former President Donald Trump, who handled international crises much better. Many say the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas situation have worsened under Biden's administration.

Biden supporters, however, aim to downplay his verbal missteps, attempting to highlight substantive aspects of his press conference where he discussed foreign policy initiatives and the administration's stance on various global issues.

Defenders argue the president's gaffes are largely inconsequential or nitpicking. In some Democratic circles, Biden still have strong backing—although more elected representatives are calling for him to step down.

Some Democrats are trying to foster unity withing the party, emphasizing urgency and aiming to mobilize voters around continuing the Biden-Harris administration's agenda.

How People See It

Undecided voters and Independents are particularly impacted by discussions of Biden’s performance. Many in this group express growing concerns about the president's age and mental sharpness, which could sway them against voting for Biden in the upcoming general election.

This demographic appears to be leaning toward alternatives, both within the Democratic Party and potentially toward Trump. Many suggest a desire for a presidential candidate who can embody strength, clarity, and innovative solutions without the embarrassment of Biden’s increasingly shocking struggles.

Many people also criticize Biden’s image on the world stage in front of foreign leaders at NATO. They mention his flub in calling President Zelensky Putin and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s disgusted reactions to Biden. Many argue these incidents are just the tip of the iceberg in how negatively foreign world leaders view the current U.S. President.

Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict also continues to attract significant scrutiny. While some appreciate his diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and his attempts to manage the humanitarian aspects, others criticize him for appearing to side too explicitly with Israel, potentially alienating voters who are sensitive to the plight of Palestinians.

President Joe Biden publicly stating he plans to stay in the presidential race has caused viral discussion online and among Democrats. There are passionate debates on both sides, but especially within Biden’s own constituencies. MIG Reports data shows a split among those who hope Biden stays in to beat Trump at any cost, and those who vehemently insist he step down.

Biden's Increasing Health Concerns

Biden's mental and physical health have nearly overshadowed all political conversations in recent days. Critics often raise concerns about his age and clear cognitive decline, with many pushing for him to step down.

More Democrats are now saying a younger candidate like Kamala Harris or others should take the helm. Some Democrat leaders, including Nancy Pelosi, also insist that time is growing short for Biden to make a decision.

Voters across the political spectrum discuss the possibility of Biden suffering from dementia, Parkinson's, and other health issues. This focus on the President’s increasing feeble appearance causes many to question his ability to handle the pressures of the presidency.

Democrats are now split on whether Biden can withstand another rigorous campaign. His supporters often dismiss these concerns as baseless attacks meant to undermine Biden’s credibility. They argue he is capable of fulfilling his duties and the media is making unjustified claims.

Other Democrats say, even if Biden does not have the capacity to continue as the sitting president, they are not bothered. A viral clip of Whoopie Goldberg promoting a similar idea went viral, drawing criticism from Republicans and some Democrats.

Whoopi: "I don't care if [Biden] pooped his pants. I don't care if he can't put a sentence together. Show me he can't do the job, and then I'll say, okay, maybe it's time to go...I have poopy day all the time. All the time." pic.twitter.com/QlMHzH8LF9

— Nicholas Fondacaro (@NickFondacaro) July 8, 2024

Any Blue Won’t Do

A salient point in the conversation is the perception of party loyalty and internal disarray among Democrats. The idea that influential Democrats and former supporters are now withdrawing their support for Biden is gaining traction.

Notable figures and entities, such as a Disney heiress and a growing number of mainstream media outlets, are shifting their allegiance or calling for Biden to step aside. Recent news that fervent Obama supporter George Clooney is calling for Biden to step down displays the significant fracture among Democrats.

George Clooney urges Joe Biden to step down as the 2024 Democratic nominee for president in a new op-ed:

“We are not going to win in November with this president. On top of that, we won’t win the House, and we’re going to lose the Senate. This isn’t only my opinion; this is the… pic.twitter.com/EArMreTtMk

— Variety (@Variety) July 10, 2024

This swell of infighting among Democrats gives critics space to argue that a party in disarray will weaken their chances in the upcoming election. Many are also questioning whether VP Harris could carry the ticket, should Biden step down. 

Trending Sentiment

Sentiment toward Biden is polarized. There’s a mixture of die-hard support and vehement opposition. Supporters champion his achievements and leadership, expressing frustration towards those within the party who are contemplating a replacement. They argue Biden represents stability and a return to normalcy compared to the chaotic tenure of his predecessor.

Opponents paint a grim picture of Biden’s presidency, attributing various national issues to his leadership and suggesting that his running for re-election would be detrimental to the country. They evoke strong imagery of moral and political decay, centering on personal attacks against Biden and his family.

For undecided voters, the ongoing discussions introduce an element of uncertainty. They are weighing the implications of Biden continuing his presidency against emerging critiques and alternative possibilities. The growing divide may influence undecided voter perceptions of party stability.

Independents, often swayed by pragmatic considerations and a broader perspective beyond strict party lines, are closely observing these developments. The Democratic Party's ability to maintain coherence and present a strong, unified case for Biden’s continuance remains a key factor for these voters. Visible rifts and intra-party dissent may deter their support, emphasizing the importance of how Democrats manage these narratives moving forward.

Conversations among those aligned with the Uncommitted Movement—a pro-Palestinian movement critical of Biden’s Israel policy—have added another layer of complexity to the debate. While not all primary-held states have an “Uncommitted” option for Democrats, notable results included:

• Michigan: 13.3% Uncommitted
• Minnesota: 19% Uncommitted
• New Jersey: Approximately 9% Uncommitted
• New Mexico: Approximately 10% Uncommitted

Online discussions suggest this movement is likely to continue through August and the Democratic National Convention. However, if Biden stays in the race, he will likely receive the official nomination via Zoom, without attending in person.

Former President Donald Trump released a 20-point plan outlining his 2024 platform. Predictably, the release was quickly and widely shared and discussed on social media. The document garnered approval from Trump’s base and strong disavowal from his opponents. Independent voters have a narrower perspective on the otherwise binary sentiment, but generally sway more in agreement with Trump’s plan.

Support for Trump’s Platform

Trump's plan, which includes measures like sealing the border, ending inflation, defending constitutional rights, and opposing Critical Race Theory in schools, receives ardent support from his core base. His followers, often associated with the MAGA movement, express enthusiastic approval, seeing his commitments as strong steps to restore American greatness.

They particularly emphasize issues like border security, energy independence, and upholding Second Amendment rights. These supporters articulate their devotion on social media, eagerly anticipating Trump's leadership to counter perceptions of a corrupt administrative state. They also hope international entanglements which weaken the nation's sovereignty will be resolved.

Conservative traditionalists, who may not align entirely with Trump but share common values, have mixed reactions. While they approve of points related to economic growth, military strengthening, and constitutional rights, there is hesitation around the more drastic aspects of the platform. Some are wary of expansive deportation and the perceived encroachments on states' rights and individual freedoms through proposed federal overreach in education and social policies.

Trump Critics Rip the Plan

Progressive and left-leaning groups react with intense opposition and vocal disapproval. They view Trump's platform as regressive, authoritarian, and potentially harmful to civil liberties.

Key points like mass deportations, the potential militarization of domestic policy, and rolling back social and racial equality initiatives provoke significant concern. Critics highlight fears of threat to democracy, climate change inaction, and economic policies favoring the wealthy over the working class.

Staunch opposition manifests in calls to action for voter mobilization and political activism. These critics hope to prevent a return to what they see as the divisive and dangerous policies of Trump’s administration.

In the Middle

Moderate and undecided voters express a mix of skepticism and cautious consideration. Some see potential merits in economic reforms and tax cuts proposed by Trump but remain wary of the broader implications of such an extensive policy overhaul.

Centrists ponder the feasibility of large-scale deportations. They also worry about the impact of education policies banning CRT and radical gender ideologies on societal cohesion and children's learning environments. This group appears pivotal, weighing the potential for policies they like versus the perceived risks of heightened political and social instability.

Independent and swing voters are often critical of both extremes. They scrutinize the platform's promises through a pragmatic lens, assessing their practicality and long-term effects. Issues like energy production and manufacturing resonate positively, but there is concern over the potential for increased authoritarian governance and reduced protections for minority groups.

Trump is showing consistent approval numbers, with approximately a two-point bump after his statement about Project 2025 and releasing his platform’s outline. This support may indicate a moderate sway toward Trump’s over Biden, amid ongoing health concerns. These sways may become more permanent depending on the Democratic ticket as well and continued economic stressors.