Vance vs. Walz: Who Really Appeals to Rural Voters?
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Key Takeaways
- Democrats hope Tim Walz can appeal to rural and moderate voters, presenting him as a Midwesterner who embodies qualities J.D. Vance claims to have.
- Vance gains 50% approval on the economy, housing, and healthcare. Walz gains greater than 50% approval on Palestine and campaign rally buzz, betraying his leftist appeal.
- Voter reactions contradict assertions that Walz has wide appeal outside of progressive voter groups. MIG Reports data shows rural voters dislike Walz's liberal track record.
- J.D. Vance also sustains higher national approval compared to Walz, who has lost support since the announcement of his Democratic VP nomination.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
81,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
7 Days
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
Democrats are attempting to frame Governor Tim Walz as the authentic, rural moderate Republicans claim J.D. Vance to be. However, this strategy may not be working, based on recent MIG Reports data.
Urban voters and liberals praise and promote perceptions of Walz as a Midwesterner with moderate appeal. Rural voters, who tend to be more conservative, criticize Walz as out of touch, calling him a “progressive costal elite’s version of a Midwesterner.”
- Since being chosen as the Democratic VP nominee, Walz’s national support has dropped from 49% prior to the announcement to 45% a week later.
- J.D. Vance is holding steady at around 49% support, with some daily fluctuation.
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- In the last week, Tim Walz has generated significantly more discussion than Vance with 62,775 mentions versus Vance’s 18,262.
- Overall approval for Walz averaged 47% in the last week compared to Vance’s 48%.
- Walz’s highest support topic was Palestine at 51% in the last week and campaign rallies at 61% in the last 24 hours.
- Walz’s lowest support topic was crime at 36% in the last week and military at 45% in the last 24 hours.
- Vance’s highest support topic was housing at 50% in the last week and multiple topics at 50% in the last 24 hours, including taxation, unions, and healthcare.
- Vance’s lowest support topics was Congress at 34% in the last week and cultural issues at 48% in the last 24 hours.
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J.D. Vance
Vance’s policy positions, particularly on immigration and reproductive rights, elicit strong reactions from key voter groups. His strict stance on border security and alignment with Trump’s policies resonate with his supporters. Critics accuse Vance of extremism and question his sincerity, citing past criticism of Trump juxtaposed with his current support.
Increasing Support
One of the key issues increasing J.D. Vance’s support is his military service, which many voters respect. Voters compare his service in the Marines with Tim Walz’s service in the National Guard, often mentioning allegations of Walz’s stolen valor.
American voters are also vocal about Vance’s ability to handle media interviews adeptly. His quick thinking and ability to counter mainstream media narratives generates praise from conservatives and moderates who view the media as biased.
Voters are discussing Vance's interviews on left-leaning networks like CNN. Reactions are varied but generally emphasize his confrontational and assertive style. Some admire his ability to "handle" and "unload on" liberal anchors like Dana Bash. They view his performance as showing media savviness and courage to engage adversarial platforms.
Discussions also emphasize voter beliefs that media outlets bias their coverage of Vance compared to Walz. People say Vance receives scrutiny and negative coverage whereas Walz receives praise and protection. There are accusations that Wikipedia and other platforms censor Vance’s military credentials while disregarding discrepancies about Walz’s military rank.
Decreasing Support
Vance’s controversial comments about "childless cat ladies," gender, and race generally lower his approval. Many describe these remarks as misogynistic and offensive, energizing opposition particularly among women and progressive groups. His stance on abortion and advocacy for state-level control is another source of criticism. Pro-choice advocates and moderate voters in swing states generally express disapproval.
Another point of controversy is Vance’s messaging on the Child Tax Credit (CTC). Critics point to his failure to vote on the expansion of the CTC, calling him unreliable and insincere. Some question his resolve in supporting the expansion of the CTC after missing crucial votes.
Some voters call Vance a "chameleon" who changes his tune for different audiences—an accusation his supporters direct instead at Kamala Harris. Critics claim Vance lacks authenticity, saying it erodes trust with voters who are unsure of his principles.
Geographic Support
Vance's support is more robust in conservative strongholds and rural areas. In these areas, his messages about patriotism, military service, and criticism of liberal policies resonate. In urban areas, where progressive values are the norm, voters oppose him based on his controversial image, which is perpetuated by the media.
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Tim Walz
Party affiliation plays a significant role in support for Tim Walz. Democratic and progressive voters cast his efforts as necessary steps to modernize and humanize state governance. These voters prioritize social equity and see Walz as a champion of these ideals. Republican and conservative voters express displeasure, accusing him of radical leftism and threatening economic freedom and individual rights.
Increasing Support
Support for Walz is driven by his progressive policies and efforts toward social equity. Democrats appreciate his push for progressive taxation, free school breakfast and lunch programs, and his push for healthcare access.
Voters view his policies as “inclusive,” with supporters praising “basic decency” and “neighborliness.” His transformations in education, focusing on cultural teaching and ethnic studies, are positive for those advocating representation and equity.
Democrats and progressives value Walz’s alignment with the Biden administration. They laud policies bolstering social welfare, LGBTQ+ issues, and sex changes for transgender youth. This group views Walz as a compassionate and progressive leader gaining momentum among urban and younger voter demographics.
Decreasing Support
The same issues generating support for Walz also drive disapproval among conservatives and moderates. Opposition to Walz is fierce, with critiques focusing on the extremes of his progressive policies. Critics label Walz as a socialist or communist.
Republicans and conservatives say Walz exacerbates racial tensions and undermines traditional American values. They criticize his actions during the BLM riots in 2020, saying he encouraged lawlessness, violence, and destruction. Walz’s involvement in the Minnesota Freedom Fund generates accusations that he eroded community safety by bailing out violent protesters.
Critics also attack his stances on gender identity, particularly the installation of tampon dispensers in boys’ bathrooms. There is negativity toward his support for “gender-affirming care” for minors, which critics call child mutilation. Walz’s public education track record also draws criticism due to declining proficiency in reading and math among Minnesota students during his tenure.
Debates over Walz's personal history and past behavior generate negativity. Allegations of stolen valor and suspicious ties with China further undermine his credibility with voters who prioritize national security and personal integrity.
There are claims about his work as a teacher in China in 1989, his yearly visits between 1996 and 2003, and his decision to honeymoon in China. Voters say these events cast a shadow over his loyalty to America. People voice suspicions of underlying influence from the Chinese Communist Party, labeling him untrustworthy and a potential security threat. Some reference his failed security clearance in 2021, questioning whether it was due to his foreign ties.
Walz’s lack of media presence also creates frustration which extends to the overall tactics of Democrats, which some say are meant to obfuscate and hide from voters. His and Kamala Harris’s failure to engage with the media fosters doubt about transparency and accountability.
Geographic Support
Urban areas, which tend to be progressive, are more likely to support Walz. They like his policies of healthcare for illegal immigrants and social justice in education. Rural areas express growing dissatisfaction. They view his policies as out of touch with their more conservative and traditional norms. Rural and conservative voters see his policies as embracing a socialist agenda that threatens economic stability and erodes their way of life.
Supporters emphasize Walz’s potential to bridge gaps in politically diverse areas. They cite his record in the U.S. Congress where he represented a conservative region of Minnesota, despite the state’s overall blue leaning. They say he understands rural America and can identify with everyday voters. However, this image is not borne out in reactions from voters in rural regions.
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