On Election Day, polls are all over the place and electoral vote predictions are murkier than ever. According to MIG Reports data driven by AI and online voter discussion, Trump is leading in the most critical battleground states.

• Overall, data suggests Trump has 53% support nationally to Harris’s 45% support.
• In battleground states, Trump leads everywhere except Virginia and Minnesota, with his largest lead in Arizona at +9 and Nevada at +8.

Trump’s Base is Energized

Donald Trump’s supporters are resolute and mobilized to vote. The core of Trump’s appeal lies in his promises of economic recovery, traditional values, and an assertive national defense policy.

GOP messaging consistently underscores Biden-Harris's economic failings, especially inflation, which feel as eroding American family budgets. In daily discussions, Trump leads Harris in both volume and sentiment.

Top Voter Topics

• Economy: Voters want Trump’s economic policies, citing poor financial situations in the last four years.
• Traditional Values: Americans want a resurgence of traditional cultural values, particularly rejecting progressive values like identity politics and woke ideology.
• Border: Trump’s firm stance on border security continues to energize voters who want to prioritize Americans over illegal immigrants.
• National Security: Many express greater confidence in Trump’s ability to handle foreign nations and prevent world conflict in places like the Middle East and Russia.

Harris Struggling to Mobilize Beyond Her Base

Kamala Harris enters Election Day facing significant hurdles. While she has managed to secure strong support within progressive circles, her campaign faces resistance from moderate and undecided voters.

Critical Discussions

• Economic Concerns: Many voters say the Biden-Harris administration drastically worsened the economy. They feel rising costs of living particularly hurt Democratic appeal among working-class voters.
• Leadership: Harris critics cite her lack of achievements, inability to articulate a clear vision, and her failure to deftly handle tough questions as indicative of insufficient leadership qualities.
• Government Overreach: Harris’s stance on social justice and progressive policies, particularly regarding lawfare and proposed price controls, alienates moderates who worry about governmental overreach.

Gender Dynamics

Gender divisions play a critical role in this election. Women appear notably energized, primarily driven by abortion and healthcare access. Early reports suggest women are expected to outnumber men at the polls—though how many will vote Harris versus Trump remains to be seen.

Men are focused on economic stability and traditional values, expressing concern about rising inflation and a deterioration of trust in American institutions.

Voter Turnout Trends

• Women: Around 75% of online discussions among women focus on social justice, abortion, and healthcare.
• Men: Around 65% of discussions among men are motivated by economic conservatism and national security.

Donald Trump’s appearance at a Pittsburgh Steelers game, with support from former players Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, sparked intense discussions across social media. The intersection of sports and politics, combined with Trump's polarizing presence, generated fervent support and harsh criticism.

Something truly beautiful is happening in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania right now. Former Steelers Legends Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are registering hundreds of new Trump voters

The culture is with Trump all the way this time.
pic.twitter.com/U4BoCgTM1n

— George (@BehizyTweets) October 20, 2024

However, reaction may also point to a hidden or silent vote, quietly aligning with Trump’s values and leadership without engaging in the volatile public discourse.

President @realDonaldTrump arrives at Acrisure Stadium to chants of U-S-A! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/TaVUjTDuT9

— Margo Martin (@margommartin) October 21, 2024

Polarization in Public Discourse

Voter conversations online are polarized about Trump’s connection with the Steelers. Sentiment trends demonstrate a split between those who view Trump as a symbol of traditional American values and those who see his involvement in sports as problematic.

Some also point out that television coverage of Trump at the Steelers game was extremely limited, showing only a few seconds of him on the Sunday Night Football broadcast. However, viral social media videos show the crowd loudly and enthusiastically cheering, “USA, USA, USA,” as Trump waved down from his box seats.

Actual footage of the Steelers game tonight NBC won’t show you. pic.twitter.com/iK35jYAiDc

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 21, 2024

The implication may be that—while online conversations are highly polarized, real-life voters are charged for Trump’s patriotic message. Thousands of fans cheering in a football stadium may capture sentiments which are absent online as not all voters engage in political discourse on social media.

Positive Sentiment

Around 45% of comments across various platforms express support for Trump, emphasizing his alignment with American values, patriotism, and leadership. Many fans appreciate his connection to blue-collar workers and traditional values, especially among older demographics, who see him as a “real American” representing their interests.

Negative Sentiment

Around 35-40% are critical of Trump’s appearance at the game, often voicing concerns about politicizing sports. These sentiments are especially pronounced among younger fans, who tend to view Trump’s involvement as divisive and distracting from the Steelers' legacy.

Former Pittsburgh Steelers are split on the Presidential election. One side has Mean Joe Greene, Jerome Bettis, and the family of Franco Harris supported her..

and the other has Leveon Bell & Antonio Brown.

Different class of folks for sure.

— Ryan Clark (@Realrclark25) October 20, 2024

Neutral Sentiment

Roughly 20% are neutral, focusing on the spectacle of Trump’s appearance without delving deeply into political allegiances. This group reflects the broader discomfort with the merging of sports and politics, without taking a strong stance.

A Hidden or Ignored Vote?

Though polarization dominates public discourse, there are signs of hidden support for Trump among those who choose not to voice their opinions openly.

Rising Focus on American Values

The volume and sentiment around American Values discussions have both increased, with up to 1,600 comments per day, reflecting growing resonance, particularly among older, conservative voters. Many in this group may avoid engaging in public debates but align strongly with Trump's ideals, contributing to the silent support.

Decreasing Engagement with Racial Issues

Discussions around Racial Issues have seen both a decline in volume and a decrease in sentiment. This suggests that while the issue remains relevant for some, it is becoming less central in broader discussions. The shift away from this topic may be another indicator that voters are gravitating more to Trump over the identity-driven Democratic platform.

Generational and Regional Dynamics

• Younger voters (18-35) remain more critical, with racial and socio-political issues often dominating their critiques.
• Older voters (36+) show strong support for Trump, with 70% of their comments expressing positive sentiment.

This suggests older voters may avoid confrontational debates but \quietly support Trump. National-level enthusiasm for Trump contrasts with the mixed reactions from local Pittsburgh residents, further indicating potential hidden support in offline conversations.

Neutral Sentiment as Silent Support

The presence of 15-25% neutral sentiment, particularly in the context of rising engagement with American Values, could signal silent support for Trump. In an environment where dissatisfaction is often vocalized online, a large neutral perspective points to those who prefer not to engage publicly but may lean toward Trump privately.

Linguistic Cues: Identity and Patriotism

The language used in pro-Trump discussions like “freedom,” “real American,” and “working-class hero," evokes traditional American ideals. Critics, on the other hand, focus on terms like “politicizing” and “distraction.” This contrast may suggest Trump’s supporters remain quiet but deeply aligned with his values.

The Intersection of Sports and Politics

Trump’s association with the Steelers taps into cultural themes of working-class pride and American identity. For many older voters, this connection solidifies their support, but they may remain silent in polarized public forums while intending to vote for Trump.

The growing influence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement may have a significant impact on election results. Many people previously considered health a niche focus. But growing opposition to GMOs and skepticism of pharmaceutical companies has emerged as an important issue for critical voter groups.

MIG Reports data shows MAHA has strong support and discussion among Republicans and Independents. There is also significant discussion among women, though with moderated enthusiasm due to Kennedy aligning with Trump. Democrats discuss MAHA less, but with some disaffected segments cautiously engaging.

Independents Want Health not Partisanship

One of the most important groups influenced by the MAHA movement is Independent voters. While traditionally difficult to predict, the 2024 election seems to be shifting some previously ambivalent voters toward Trump through RFK Jr.’s health platform.

Among this group, RFK Jr.'s outsider status and his emphasis on personal liberties is key—they are not swayed by partisan arguments but may be drawn to vote for health issues they prioritize.

Their engagement with the MAHA may be nuanced as some are excited by potential health reforms, while others are hesitant about aligning with Trump.

Independent Voters

• 40-50% of Independents are actively engaging with the MAHA platform.
• 35-40% express enthusiasm for health policies, overcoming their distaste for both major political parties.
• 20-30% resonate with MAHA while remaining wary of association with Trump.

Independents are known for valuing substance over party loyalty, and health reform could be the issue that moves this key voter bloc.

Women Want Health, Despite Trump

Female voters are another key group Trump stands to gain through the MAHA coalition. This offers a unique opportunity for the GOP, which traditionally struggles to attract women.

MIG Reports data previously showed women increasing prioritize health issues. Many say they are willing to look past their concerns about Trump in favor of MAHA’s health platform. They would rather reform health policy than avoid Trump, suggesting their primary focus is on achieving tangible public health outcomes.

Female Voters

• 40% of women are discussing health and healthcare policy issues over other political topics.
• 25% say they prioritize health issues over partisanship, willing to embrace Trump.

Many women are frustrated with the current healthcare system, particularly regarding access to affordable services and nutrition in low-income areas. They see health reforms as essential to their families' well-being.

The MAHA platform’s focus on reforming healthcare, reducing chronic disease, and improving food safety has created a pragmatic voter bloc willing to support health improvements, even if it means aligning temporarily with Trump.

This group, despite strong tendencies toward pro-choice and Democratic health policies may opt to align with Republicans if it means achieving the health reforms MAHA proposes.

Disillusioned Democrats Like MAHA

In general, Democrats who support health remain wary of MAHA due to party loyalty. Many Democratic voters disapprove of RFK Jr.’s alignment with Trump, even if they were previously drawn to Kennedy’s health policies. For many Democrats, anti-Trump and partisan motivations supersede other priorities.

However, there is some engagement from disaffected former Democrats—which aligns with partisan shifts among leaders like Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard. These voters are both drawn by health autonomy but also expressing feelings of betrayal by their party. Many feel the Democratic Party, once the champion of the working class and progressive causes, has become too intertwined with corporate interests and government mandates in healthcare.

Many are also discontented about the lack of a Democratic primary, where Kamala Harris was ushered in by establishment elites. They dislike the most radical wings of the Party seeming to control policies and messaging in the current administration.

The disdain for current Democratic leadership is strong, with voters expressing feelings of betrayal from a party they once supported. One comment encapsulates this sentiment saying, "I used to be a diehard liberal, but this is no longer the party I once loved."

Democratic Voters

• 15-25% of Democrats are discussing RFK Jr. and MAHA-related topics.
• 20-30% express some interest in MAHA, though hesitant to abandon party loyalty.

For disaffected Democrats, the MAHA movement encourages taking the leap away from a Democratic establishment which clearly dismisses their health concerns. RFK Jr.’s aggressive stance against corporate power—especially his legal battles against Monsanto—resonates with those on the left who used to view Democrats as fighting against cronyism. While these Democrats may not fully align with the GOP, the MAHA movement could peel off voters who see sharp hypocrisy in Democratic messaging.

The Growing Appeal MAHA in the GOP

Another important shift is the enthusiastic embrace of RFK Jr.'s health-centric policies among Republicans. Traditionally focused on fiscal conservatism and national security, many Republicans now view personal health autonomy as imperative—especially after COVID.

The “crunchy” or health fanatic view many Republicans may previously have associated with RFK Jr.’s policies has softened. Now, many Americans view health as non-partisan, embracing any administration that will actively prioritize personal health freedoms.

Republican Voters

• 30-40% of Republicans are discussing RFK Jr. and MAHA.
• 50-70% of view MAHA positively.
• 40-50% embrace the MAHA agenda as a priority in their political considerations.

The GOP’s base has long distrusted government overreach, particularly in areas of personal liberty. This aligns MAHA's stance on health mandates, distrust of the CDC and FDA, and the fight against Big Pharma.

Kennedy’s position on vaccine mandates resonates with the anti-establishment MAGA base, which has long prioritized individual autonomy. This presents a real opportunity for the GOP to incorporate health policies which could solidify support from previously disparate voter groups.

The Hybridization of Republican Ideals

MAHA has the potential to marry traditional Republican values with a health approach that appeals to progressives. While some conservatives are wary of Trump’s moderate and progressive-leaning stances, there is an overlap in health which seems palatable across ideological lines.

Republican and Independent Enthusiasm

• MIG Reports data suggests 50-70% of Republicans and Independents overlap in their views and engagement toward MAHA.

Voters who are looking for common-sense policies that transcend partisan divides can come together under a health umbrella. For the GOP, this hybrid platform seems to be attracting new voters which are otherwise difficult to move.