The discourse surrounding FISA reauthorization, Rule 702, Rule 613, and other domestic spying topics is highly polarized and fueled by mistrust in the government throughout the political spectrum. In terms of political party affiliations, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all express concerns about government surveillance, though for different reasons. Republicans and Independents appear more likely to link it to fears of a police state, while Democrats connect it more to civil liberties.

Democrats

• Seem to be more supportive of surveillance measures as necessary tools for national security, but express concerns about potential abuses of power and invasions of privacy
• Some Democrats are supportive of the FISA reauthorization, arguing that it is a crucial tool in combating terrorism and maintaining national security.
• Others are concerned about civil liberties and privacy rights, asserting that the current laws give too much power to intelligence agencies and lack proper oversight.

Republicans

• More skeptical about government surveillance, viewing it as an excessive overreach of power. They fear that such measures could be used to manipulate elections and control the population.
• Some, particularly in the conservative wing, see FISA and its rules as essential for national security and believe that potential abuses could be mitigated through better oversight.
• Libertarian-leaning Republicans are worried about government overreach and violation of Fourth Amendment rights.
• MAGA shows a divided opinion
  • Some express support for strong national security measures, including surveillance, to combat threats.
  • Others, however, share the concerns about government overreach and potential misuse of power.
  • This division is also influencing the discourse around the upcoming general elections, with some Republicans arguing that the party needs to take a firm stance on this issue.

Independents

• Display a range of opinions, but many echo the fears of government overreach seen from Republicans and concerns about personal privacy
• Among Independents, the focus tends to be more on personal privacy rights. While some acknowledge the need for strong intelligence gathering capabilities, many express concerns about potential abuses and the lack of transparency in the surveillance process.
  

Trending Concerns

1. Excessive government surveillance and potential misuse of such power.
   2. The impact of domestic spying on personal privacy.
   3. Potential for election manipulation through surveillance.
   4. The constitutionality of FISA reauthorization, Rule 702, Rule 613, and similar measures.
   5. Stricter gun control measures and their impact on the Second Amendment rights.
   6. The link between mental health issues and mass shootings.
   7. The effectiveness of gun control laws in preventing mass shootings.
   8. The role of media in shaping public opinion about these issues.
   9. The impact of COVID-19 on the push for surveillance and gun control.
   10. The potential for these issues to influence the upcoming general election.

American’s Shared Fears

The general public's worries seem to center around potential abuses of power and violations of privacy, the balance between security and liberty, and the potential for political bias in surveillance practices. These concerns could indeed play a role in the upcoming general election, as voters weigh the importance of these issues against other pressing matters like the economy, healthcare, and climate change.

1. Distrust of Government: A significant portion of the public does not trust the government, regardless of party lines. This is especially true for matters related to domestic spying and surveillance.
   2. Concerns over Deep State: Many Republicans believe in the existence of a 'deep state' that is attempting to undermine President Trump and his allies. Some are using this belief to promote skepticism about the upcoming election.
   3. Alleged Corruption: Democrats are voicing concerns about alleged corruption within the Trump administration, particularly regarding the use of domestic spying and foreign interference in elections.
   4. Cryptocurrency and Surveillance: Some independents are concerned about the potential for government surveillance of cryptocurrency transactions, viewing it as a tool of the 'deep state'.
   5. Lack of Transparency: There is a widespread sentiment that the government is not transparent enough about its surveillance practices, leading to distrust and conspiracy theories.
   6. Fear of Foreign Interference: Both Democrats and Republicans are worried about foreign interference in the upcoming election, although they disagree on who is responsible and the extent of the interference.
   7. Media Manipulation: There are fears about media manipulation by the government, with some believing this is a tool used by the 'deep state' to control public opinion.
   8. Abolishment of the Deep State: Trump supporters, in particular, are calling for a dismantling of the perceived 'deep state', viewing it as a necessary step to restore trust in the government.
   9. Rule 702 Concerns: Many are concerned about the reauthorization of Rule 702, which allows for the warrantless surveillance of non-U.S. citizens abroad. Critics argue that this rule can be used to indirectly spy on American citizens.
   10. General Election Tensions: All of these issues are contributing to heightened tensions and polarized attitudes leading up to the general election. There is a widespread concern that domestic spying and foreign interference could impact the election's outcome.

Talking About - Weaponization of Government

Sentiment - Weaponization of Government

As the news spreads of a possible disqualification of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from the Trump RICO case, the public response is a mixed bag. The main issue revolves around Willis's alleged personal relationship with Nathan Wade, a special prosecutor she appointed to manage the election interference case against Donald Trump.

Overall, it seems the potential for Willis to be removed from the case has heightened skepticism about the validity of the charges. A significant portion of the public raises concern about the potential implications on the integrity of the judicial process. This seems to be a general trend, despite clear partisan divides on this issue.

In online discourse, the top keywords related to Fani Willis are largely generating negative sentiment.

Sentiment toward Fani Willis related to the various allegations dropped noticeably when a hearing on her possible dismissal was announced.

• Trump and Willis saw similar sentiment in the high 40% range prior to the hearing news.
• After her misconduct hearing was announced, Willis dropped to 40% and Trump held at 46%.

It is evident that Democrats and Republicans view this case very differently based on political opinions. However, sentiment toward allegations against both Trump and Willis is similar among all voters, dropping slightly across the board as news about the hearing is released.

Republicans Accuse Willis of Politicizing the Justice System

In general, Republicans are very critical of both Willis’s actions and the RICO case itself.

• They argue that Willis is politically biased and has used her position to target high-profile political figures including Trump.
• Republicans believe that her connections to the Democratic Party, particularly her alleged meetings with the Biden administration, are evidence of this bias.
• Critics also claim that her campaign fundraising was partially illegal, suggesting corruption.
• They believe she is more interested in aiding Biden's 2024 campaign than prioritizing public safety and the rule of law.
• Many on the right argue Willis’s relationship with Nathan Wade is inappropriate and simply the appearance of conflicts of interest compromise the impartiality of her office.

Democrats Insist No One is Above the Law

For their part, Democrats tend to support Willis and, even more strongly, the case she’s bringing against Trump.

• Democrats point out that Willis is a highly qualified prosecutor who is committed to upholding the rule of law.
• They argue that her investigations into Trump is not the result of political bias, but rather a reflection of her commitment to holding everyone accountable, regardless of their status.
• Supporters also dismiss the allegations of illegal campaign funding, noting that they are unproven and potentially politically motivated.
• Many on the left argue that these allegations are attempts to undermine Willis's credibility and reputation.
• There are assertions that Willis and Wade’s private lives should not be used to judge their professional competence.
• Democrats claim that male figures in similar positions often maintain private lives without facing the same level of scrutiny.

Doubling Down on Trump Support

With more evidence of a politicized judicial system, many on the right and in the center are arguing in favor of Trump.

• Continued legal attacks on Trump, which seem to be fast falling apart, elicit accusations that the "Deep State" is politicizing the courts.
• Allegations that Willis misused state and federal funds have been a key topic, with many expressing their desire for justice and transparency in the political sphere.
• There is a considerable amount of frustration among many different groups who view the situation as an example of corruption and a disregard for the rule of law.
• There are voices lauding Congressman Cory Mills for introducing a bill aimed at removing Willis from her position.
• Some are hailing the prospects of Willis's disqualification as a victory for Trump, suggesting that the allegations against Willis undermine the credibility of the entire case.
• Many Americans seem to be concluding that bias and corruption are being revealed within the legal establishment against Trump.
• There's a sentiment among some that Willis, along with other prominent Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama, are given a "pass" despite perceived wrongdoing..

While Republicans are largely leading the objections against a potentially politicized judicial system, this sentiment seems to be spreading to other voter groups as well.

Objections of Racism

In defense of Willis, Democrats and others on the left take the other side of the politicization argument.

• Many Democrats counter with the argument that Willis’s misconduct hearing is a result of Republicans weaponizing the court against her.
• There are arguments that "black women in charge" are subjects of excessive criticism.
• Supporters suggest that Willis's potential disqualification is part of a broader pattern of American biases that black, female leaders are incompetent or corrupt.
• Supporters also accuse Republicans of attempting to punish Willis for maintaining a private life alongside her professional responsibilities.
• Many dismiss the allegations against Willis as an attempt to distract from Trump's alleged misdeeds.
• Many on the left assert that Willis is being unfairly targeted due to her race and gender and that she is facing heightened scrutiny which white or male DAs would not.
• Overall, those on the left see the possible removal of Willis as a potential setback in the pursuit of accountability for Trump's actions.
• Among this group, Willis's potential disqualification does not necessarily invalidate the indictments.

Lakewood Church Shooting Response

Discussion around the Lakewood Church shooting is divisive, but generating negativity. A significant portion of the discourse connects the incident to broader discussions around transgender issues and the consequences for society.

• Some online are pointing out the recurrence of violent shooters identifying as transgender.
• Critics of this viewpoint argue that such claims are discriminatory and are an attempt to politicize a tragic event.
• Some also question the veracity of the shooter's reported transgender identity, suggesting that it may be misinformation.
• There is also discussion about the shooter's alleged support for Bernie Sanders and demographic group.
• A few voices express disappointment with the media coverage of the incident, claiming that the shooter's transgender identity has been underreported or ignored.
• There are also suggestions that the shooters race and ethnicity are being misreported.
• People suggest that this is evidence of bias in the media and a reluctance to cover stories that don't fit a certain narrative.

Following the church shooting, online discussion around transgender issues increased from 327 mentions the day before, to 1,022 the day of the event.

• Sentiment toward trans issues dropped, both among Democrats and Republicans.
• Among Democrats, trans topics saw 52% approval prior to the event and 43% the day after.
• Republicans showed 46% approval for trans topics prior and 33% the day after the shooting.

Conversations About Trans Athletes in Women’s Sports

Among other discussions on trans issues, there is conversation around girls’ and women's sports. Trans athletes in the United States and Canada have recently become a hot topic due to the increasing number of transgender athletes participating in these sports.

Many Americans agree that everyone should have the chance to participate in sports. However, the inclusion of transgender athletes in women's sports is a contentious issue.

Support for Trans Athletes

• Some users have expressed their support for LGBTQ rights and acceptance in society, including the rights of trans athletes to compete in sports.
• They talk about the need for inclusivity and equality, and some also highlight the importance of representation in sports.
• They admire figures who have played a role in advancing acceptance.
• These individuals argue that gender identity should be respected and that excluding transgender women from women's sports is discriminatory.
• Some contend that hormone therapy mitigates biological advantages and that there is no substantial evidence to suggest that transgender women consistently outperform women.
• Although there’s a significant group of people who support trans athletes, their reasoning is fairly unified around “supporting equality.”

Disapproval for Biological Men in Girls’ Sports

• Many Americans express negative views about trans athletes in female sports, across several groups and demographics, although the loudest tend to be Christians and conservatives.
• Christians bring up religious arguments, citing the Bible as the basis for their beliefs.
• Many others raise concerns about fairness in sports, asserting that trans athletes have biological advantages that make competition unfair.
• A common argument is that transgender women have an unfair biological advantage over cisgender women.
• They point to factors such as muscle mass, bone density, and testosterone levels as undeniable advantages for transgender women.
• Many fear that allowing transgender women to compete could discourage cisgender women from participating
• Some voices, including prominent female athletes, argue that transgender women's participation effectively means fewer opportunities for biological women.
• There is insistence that transgender participation in women's sports infringes upon Title IX, a law that guarantees women equal opportunities in education and athletics.

Several states have passed or are considering legislation to prevent transgender women and girls from participating in women's sports. Many believe these laws are necessary to ensure fair competition. Some critics view them as discriminatory and harmful to transgender individuals.

Partisan Disagreements About Transgender Issues

Like many issues, there tends to be a somewhat partisan divide with general LGBTQ and, specifically, transgender issues.

• Support for trans athletes in girls’ and women’s sports tends to be expressed among left-leaning progressives and young people.
• Critics of rising trans ideology tend to be conservatives, religious groups, moderates, and older Americans.
• In the middle, there are some individuals who propose alternative solutions, such as creating separate leagues for trans athletes or implementing hormone regulations.

Overall, Democrats show more approval for topics involving LGBTQ issues.

Recent online discussions reflect a general dissatisfaction and frustration with the current economic situation, particularly around rising prices. There is a clear demand for more effective communication from the government and corporations about measures to manage inflation and stabilize prices. The online discussions provide a rich insight into the public sentiment and concerns regarding the current economic situation, particularly focusing on inflation and price changes. A few key themes emerge from these discussions:

Frustration over Rising Prices

Many online users express dissatisfaction with the continued increase in the prices of goods and services, with specific mention of gas prices and the subsequent impact on other sectors such as fast food and retail.

Lack of Trust in Corporations

There is significant sentiment expressing distrust towards corporations like Walmart and McDonald's, with users questioning why prices have not dropped now that gas prices have been lower for over a year.

Concern Over Real Estate Market

Concerns over the stability of the real estate market, particularly in high-value areas, are evident. Users are worried about the potential impact of environmental factors (like climate change) on property values and safety.

Uncertainty and Anxiety

There is a general sense of uncertainty and anxiety about the future, particularly concerning economic stability and the potential for increased inflation.

Skepticism Towards Biden and Media

There is skepticism towards the claims made by Biden and the media regarding the state of inflation. Users are eager for tangible evidence of improvement.

Messaging

Increasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:

1. Tangible evidence of price decreases, especially in essential goods and services.
2. Positive news about economic recovery and job growth.
3. Clear communication from the government about measures taken to control inflation.

Decreasing Sentiment on Inflation Getting Better:

1. Continued increase in prices of goods and services.
2. Negative news about the economy or job market.
3. Lack of clear communication or perceived inaction from the government on inflation.

Talking About - Economic Issues & Inflation

Sentiment - Economic Issues & Inflation

Online discussions regarding Ukraine saw an uptick in volume earlier in early February due to the Ukraine spending bill in the Senate. The key themes dominating conversations about Ukraine primarily revolve around a $95 billion aid package designed to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The discussions are focused on the advancement of this bill in the U.S. Senate and the political dynamics surrounding it. A few themes from online discussions are:

U.S. Foreign Aid Package

Many discussions are centered around the U.S. Senate's decision to move forward with this substantial aid package. Some users view this as a positive development, highlighting that 18 Republicans backed the legislation despite opposition from former President Trump. This topic increases positive sentiment towards Ukraine as it portrays the country as a beneficiary of bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate.

Political Divisions

The aid package has also stirred debates on political lines. Some Republicans, including Trump, are against the bill, while a significant number of Republicans and Democrats support it. This has led to discussions about intra-party divisions, particularly within the Republican Party. Depending on political leanings, this topic either increases or decreases sentiment towards Ukraine.

International Relations

There are robust discussions around the geopolitical implications of the aid package, especially in relation to Ukraine's position in global politics. Positive sentiments are associated with the perception that the aid package will reinforce Ukraine's diplomatic position and security.

Opposition to Aid

A notable portion of the discussion is from individuals expressing opposition to the aid package. Some argue that the funds could be better used domestically, while others express anti-war sentiments, suggesting the money will be used to fund conflict. This topic tends to decrease sentiment towards Ukraine, as it associates the country with controversial U.S. foreign aid policies.

Role of Trump: Former President Trump's opposition to the aid package is a recurring theme in the discussions. Some users support Trump's stance, while others criticize it. This topic tends to polarize sentiments towards Ukraine along partisan lines.

Talking About - Ukraine

Sentiment - Ukraine

Foreign, or Domestic?

Geopolitical Conflicts

A significant portion of the conversation revolves around expressing concern over Russia's perceived aggression. This includes discussions about the potential for World War III if Russia is encouraged to attack NATO allies, as well as the need to support Ukraine against such aggression.

International Relations

Another key theme is the role of the United States and other countries in assisting Ukraine. This includes debates about the proposed $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, with some voicing support for the aid and others criticizing it.

Domestic Politics

Discussions also touch on the impact of domestic US politics on Ukraine, with comments on senators voting against the aid package and former President Trump's stance towards Russia and Ukraine.

Impact to Support - Ukraine

Sentiment towards Ukraine varies across political affiliations. Republicans tend to express more skepticism towards aid packages and are more likely to support stronger action against Russia. Democrats, on the other hand, are generally more supportive of providing aid and diplomatic solutions to the conflict. Independents show a range of views, reflecting their diverse political beliefs.

Increased sentiment towards Ukraine, both positive and negative, can be triggered by key events such as geopolitical conflicts, proposed aid packages, and statements by political figures. For example, the rescue of Israeli hostages in Gaza sparked discussions about international relations and the role of different countries in resolving conflicts. In contrast, the proposed aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan has fueled debates and possibly negative sentiment about foreign aid and its implications for domestic politics and international relations.

RFK Jr. has been a topic of discussion online following his Super Bowl ad. Unsurprisingly, feedback is mixed with some praising his honesty, transparency, and dedication to fighting government corruption. However, the ad also caused some controversy which led to Kennedy apologizing on Twitter.

Overall, the $7 million ad doesn’t seem to have markedly changed voter perception of the Independent candidate.

• Discussion volume regarding RFK Jr. increased from around 350 mentions the day before, to nearly 800 following the Super Bowl ad.
• Approval for RFK Jr. ticked down by about 1% both nationally and in swing states.
• His approval on February 9 was slightly higher in swing states at 51% versus 50% nationally.
• On February 11, his approval in swing states dipped slightly below his overall sentiment at 49.4% compared to 49.7% nationally.

Reactions and RFK Jr.’s Apology

Following the ad, there was expressed concern about his influence due to his media experience and recognizable name.

Negativity Toward the Ad

• A columnist, David Colborne, characterized RFK Jr. as a "dangerous and paranoid crank," generating agreement and discussion.
• Some voiced their disapproval, calling for the ad to be taken down and requiring an apology.
• Others expressed political disagreement, stating they would not support RFK Jr., despite appreciating the quality of the advertisement.
• There seems to be a perceived conflict between RFK Jr.'s actions and the legacy of his family, leading some to believe his views are more conservative than those of his relatives.
• He also drew criticism from Libertarians, implying that he supports a heavily government-involved economic system.
• There was some support following the ad, showing enthusiastic about his independent campaign and anticipation for the announcement of his running mate.
• A few praise the Super Bowl ad as being effective in spreading the word of his presidential bid, particularly among older demographics.
• A notable number of individuals express a sense of nostalgia in response to his ad, even if they do not support him for president.

Questions About Funding

A portion of the conversation also revolved around the Super Bowl ad's creation and dissemination. RFK Jr. clarified in a tweet that the ad was made and aired without his campaign's involvement or approval. He apologized, explaining that Federal Election Commission (FEC) rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with him or his staff.

• Some are wary of the sources of his campaign funding, with allegations of being backed by one of Trump's biggest donors sparking controversy
• There is also controversy around the use of family members' images in the ad, with suggestions that RFK Jr's views on healthcare are contrary to his family’s.
• Some view RFK Jr.’s apology as a necessary step towards resolving a family dispute, while others see it as an admission of his controversial stance on healthcare.
• The Super Bowl ad seems to have successfully sparked discussion and debate around RFK Jr.’s political stances, attracting both support and criticism. It has has effectively raised his profile and generated significant attention, although whether this will translate into broader political support remains to be seen.

Although many Democrats online express support for the Biden administration, the party as a whole, and include VP Harris, there is question about whether she alone could maintain even Biden’s decreasing levels of confidence among the American people.

Comparing Harris to other politicians in her party, MIG data suggests that her popularity is lower than President Biden's, even among Democrats.

• In the last 30 days, Harris has shown an average approval of 46% compared to Biden’s 49%.
• Harris’ 30-day low of 42% trails 6 points behind Biden’s low of 48% and only rose above Biden once on February 5.

How Democrats Talk about VP Harris

Although both receive criticism, it appears more focused on Harris, with more negative remarks directed at her.

• Some conversations imply that she is seen as an insurance policy against impeachment for President Biden, rather than providing value on her own merits.
• Democrats generally show support for Harris, praising her accomplishments and expressing hope for her future success, but mostly lauding her as a symbol of representation.
• She is celebrated by many Democrats for her historic role as the first female Vice President.
• Democrats do express concern over her performance, suggesting that the administration needs to find better ways to communicate its achievements to the public.
• Many defend Harris and Biden against criticism and reaffirm their intention to vote for the Democratic party in future elections, regardless of current sentiment.
• This position is expressed along with frustration at her performance and suggestions she is less popular than some of her Democratic counterparts.

Praise and Criticism for Kamala Harris

There are some positives which Harris supporters point out.

• The VP is celebrated for her involvement in initiatives like Transit Equity Day.
• It's clear that her identity as the first woman, first Black woman, and first Asian American woman to be Vice President is a source of pride.
• People often praise her experience as a former senator and attorney general of California.
• Her support for progressive policies such as climate change, equality, and healthcare is greatly appreciated within the party.
• While she has a strong base of support among Democrats, she is also the subject of intense criticism.
• Many view Harris as less experienced and more ideologically driven than Biden.
• Some Democrats express concerns about her past record as a prosecutor in California and her handling of key assignments.
• She has also received criticism for her performance and inaction as Border Czar.
• Many in her own party expressed dissatisfaction at her management of the border, with some going as far as to call for her impeachment.
• There are complaints about perceived lack of visibility and effectiveness in her role, and concerns about low approval ratings as the 2024 election nears.
• There is worry that her past stances on criminal justice issues could alienate progressive voters and harm the party's chances in future elections.
• There is a sense of disappointment among some Democrats due to perceived underperformance and lack of tangible action.
• A primary concern among Democrats is a perceived lack of transparency and accountability.
• Many criticize what they perceive as her inability to effectively communicate and defend the administration's policies.
• Another complaint is her perceived lack of visibility regarding major policy issues.
• Some argue she has not been proactive in advancing the Biden administration's policy agenda and worry that she may not be prepared to assume the presidency if needed.
• Several voters indicate a concern about the potential for Harris to become President, either through the 25th amendment or in the event of the impeachment of President Biden.

Comparatively, Harris seems to be less popular than many politicians within her own party. This perception is driven by her low approval ratings.

The discourse surrounding Joe Biden's cognitive abilities has been a contentious topic across all political spectrums. Americans perceived his recent press conference as an unmitigated disaster and even his defenders cannot continue to ignore the rumors of his decline.

In the 24 hours since the Special Council report detailed Biden’s mental unfitness to face charges in a classified document case, and after his contentious press conference, Biden’s approval has yet to take a significant hit. While this could still change, one implication could be that Democrats still intend to vote along party lines, even if they believe he is mentally unfit for office.

• In the last day, Biden’s approval remained strong at 48% and Trump saw a slight bump from 47% to 48%.

The top discussion topics regarding the president online in the last 24 hours include:

Reactions to the Special Council Report

Online discussion predictably reflected partisan divides in the aftermath of the Special Council’s report calling Biden a “Sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

• Republicans expressed disappointment and anger, suggesting that the decision not to charge him was a product of bias and not reflective of the truth.
• Many cited the very similar charges brought against Trump as evidence of a two-tier justice system.
• Republicans say the decision not to charge Biden was politically motivated and determining Biden unfit for charges but fit for office is an untenable contradiction.
• There are calls for the application of the 25th Amendment or impeachment, as well as suggestions that the same leniency wasn't extended to former President Trump.
• Many Democrats saw the refusal to charge as a vindication of Biden and a repudiation of what they perceive as baseless accusations.
• Some suggest that Biden's focus may have been elsewhere due to the complex and numerous issues he is dealing with, like the crisis in Ukraine and the attack by Hamas.
• They are focusing on the fact that Biden will not face charges, rather than the salience of the reasons given by the DOJ.
• Despite most Democrats avoiding the issue prior to the report, there is now some expressed concern it gives credence to doubts about Biden's cognitive abilities.
• Some Democrats acknowledge concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities, but they primarily view these as character attacks, expressing support for Biden and Harris.
• A few have admitted the special counsel's assessment of Biden's cognitive abilities is concerning, questioning if someone unfit for trial should continue as POTUS.

Conversations Following the President’s Confused Press Conference

Many people across all political affiliations commented on Biden’s confusion about Gaza, the Mexico border, and the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. However, explanations for his confusion differed depending on political affiliation.

• Republicans pointed out that Biden made these egregious errors directly after defending his fitness and denying any memory problems, using it as evidence of his decline.
• They suggest the press conference confirmed the special counsel's report about Biden’s poor memory and deteriorating cognition.
• Democrats continue to dismiss these concerns, pointing out that occasional verbal gaffes are common among all politicians, regardless of age or cognitive fitness.
• Many Democrats also cited the complex nature of the issues he was addressing, claiming mistakes are not indicative of dementia or other cognitive deteriorations.
• Some Democrats compared Biden to former President Trump, asserting that Biden's actions were not as damaging or obstructive as Trump's.

It is clear that bias and party loyalty is shaping public perceptions about Biden’s mistakes which, everyone now admits, are noticeable. This highlights the deep-seated divisions within the current political landscape.

In a recent Las Vegas rally, President Biden shored up support from Nevada Democrats before winning the Nevada Primary this Tuesday. With few real Democrat challengers, Biden aimed much of his speech at his inevitable challenger, former President Donald Trump, in what Newsweek called Biden’s, “Angriest Speech Yet”. However, the subject matter of Biden’s fiery critique of Trump was quickly overshadowed by yet another gaffe from the 81 year old Commander-in-Chief. Biden told the audience of Nevadans that at the beginning of his Presidency, he met with G20 leaders and he spoke to a French President who died in 1996. The clip of yet another Biden senior moment was viewed 21 million times on X, with 11,000 reposts and 40,000 likes.

MIG’s report revealed the President’s appearance in the Silver state did little to sway Nevada, both in approval for Biden and in head to head support vs Trump. Much of the online discussions surrounding Biden revealed themes of either dismay at the state of the Biden’s America or serious nostalgia for the Trump Presidency.

By the Numbers

MIG’s data reveals that after Biden’s Sunday speech (2/4) in Las Vegas, his approval amongst online discussants remained stuck in the mid 40% range, rising only 1% the day of his speech.

• This matches the response to President Trump’s visit to Nevada in late January, when his approval also mariginally rose from 44% to 45% the day of his speech. But Trump’s approval rose to 48% that week when legal developments involving the President broke.

In head to head support analysis, MIG found that in Nevada over the last month:

• Trump averaged 50% support.
  
• Biden averages 41% support.
  
• RFK jr. averaged 9% support.

Biden also trails Trump on key issues in Nevada:

• On the economy, online discussions still show Trump beating Biden 47% to 41%.
  
• On Border Security, Trump trounces Biden 47% to 39%.
  
• On the Topic of Security Issues, Trump Holds 44% to Biden’s 38%.
  

The Trump Show

The lack of approval changes after both Biden and Trump’s speeches in Nevada reflects a broader trend seen in politics: campaigning directly to voters, known as retail politics is useless against Trump.

• Instead, Trump’s ability leverage charisma and media to connect with the electorate has controlled the political narrative-by framing establishment prosecutions as attacks against the silent majority.
  
• MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions centering on Trump demonstrated “Trump's narrative of being an outsider battling against a corrupt system resonates with his supporters. When he is prosecuted, it bolsters this narrative and makes him appear as a martyr fighting against a rigged system.”
  
• Biden’s cognitive decline leaves little ability to leverage media in the way his predecessor does, leaving Biden strategists to focus on Biden’s policies.

BideNOmics

Yet the Biden strategy of focusing on policy is already proving fruitless, as analysis by MIG in both Clark County and Nevada shows:

• In Nevada, amongst online users discussing Biden, “There is a perception among users that Biden is favoring non-citizens over U.S. citizens, particularly in reference to immigration and housing issues.”
  
• Negative sentiment on the economy is also strong in Clark County specifically, where MIG found:
  • “concerns about the increasing rent prices and unaffordable housing, which some attribute to "Bidenomics".”
    
  • More generally, “Frustration over increasing living costs under Biden's administration, with some individuals claiming their cost of living has significantly increased.”

Make America Great Again, Again

Biden’s strategy of contrasting his Presidency with Trump to Nevadans falls flat beyond its own merits, with many highlighting preference for the Trump Presidency. MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions comparing Trump to Biden found:

• Foreign Policy: “Many comments compare Biden's Presidency with Trump's..people seem to believe that Trump had a more peaceful approach to foreign policy, refraining from starting new wars, and had a better relationship with countries like Russia and North Korea.”
  
• Immigration: “Criticism of Biden often centers on the perceived lack of control over the southern border and the potential implications for crime and the economy. These users view Biden's policies as too lenient, leading to an increase in illegal immigration.” While other “users believe that Trump was better at enforcing immigration laws and protecting the border, and criticize Biden for his stance on immigration.”
  
• Despite media framing of Trump holding back immigration reform, Nevadans who appear to not even be Republicans continue to slam Biden, “People are comparing Biden's policies to previous administrations, particularly those of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, criticizing Biden for not being as assertive on immigration issues.”
  
• Handling of the Economy: “Some users argue that Trump was better at managing the economy, pointing to the GDP growth under his administration.”

Looking Ahead

Despite Biden’s Las Vegas rally and a strong primary win, the incumbent President’s campaign looks increasingly helpless in the face of a dominant showing by Donald Trump in swing states like Nevada and national polling in general.

The best campaign gurus of the left can do little to twist reality of what life was like during the Trump Presidency compared to now in the eyes of voters, nor can they make the noticeably 81 year old President seem any younger.

MIG's analysis underscores a stagnant approval rating for Biden in the face of an enduring appeal on Trump era policies on the economy, border security, and national security. Even if the unemployment rate continues to remains strong and inflation plateaus, Biden's message will continue to be overshadowed by Trump’s dominance of the news cycle and gaffes that fuel discussions about his fitness for office. This reflects a broader trend in American politics where charismatic leadership and dominance of media presence increasingly overshadow traditional retail politics. It becomes more and more clear that there is little Biden can do to win the hearts and minds of voters in an era of personality and vibes driven politics that Trump has mastered.