A recent Gallup poll of American approval regarding immigration levels from 1965 through the present determined:

• 55% of Americans today want immigration reduced
• 25% want immigration levels to stay the same
• 16% want an increase in immigration numbers.

MIG Reports analysis of voter conversations online not only confirm polling data but reveal why Americans hold their current perspectives on immigration

Weighted Analysis

MIG Reports analysis weighs total discussion volume and approval percentages of immigration preferences by calculating the influence of each group's preference—decreased, maintained, or increased immigration—across multiple data sets.

By considering both the percentage of preferences within each data set and the total discussion volume of each set, the analysis determined the overall weighted preference.

MIG Reports analysis shows:

• 56.50% of voters nationally favor decreased immigration
• 26.22% favor maintaining current levels
• 17.29% favor increased immigration
• Additionally, in swing states, around 70% of conversations favor reducing immigration.
• In national conversations about the presidential election, 60% favor reducing immigration.
  

Why a Majority Wants Reduced Immigration

The predominant preference in voters discussions favors decreased immigration. This is driven by a variety of concerns revolving around national security, economic stability, and public safety.

Many Americans voice deep apprehension about illegal immigration as a major threat to the country’s security and economic well-being. Voters talk about reducing or stopping illegal immigration because they believe:

• Illegal immigrants contribute to rising crime rates: Discussions mention gang activity and violent crimes linked to immigrant groups, particularly in urban areas.
• An open order exacerbates economic challenges: People discuss job scarcity and inflation, arguing the influx of illegal migrants strains public resources like social services, healthcare, and housing.

There is widespread frustration and distrust toward Biden-Harris immigration policies, which voters view as too lenient. People direct their anger toward Democrats who they believe have failed to secure the border. Discussions emphasize a sense of urgency and alarm, with many advocating for stricter controls and even mass deportation policies.

Reasons for Maintaining Immigration Levels

Around 25% of voters in MIG Reports data advocate for maintaining current levels of immigration. They emphasize the need for a balanced and structured approach to the border. These voters typically argue that, while reforms may be necessary, a drastic reduction in immigration is not the solution.

Immigration advocates point out the importance of legal immigration pathways, highlighting the contributions of immigrants to the economy and society. They focus on the value of diversity and the critical role immigrant workers play in the economy. Here, they mention industries that rely heavily on labor from immigrant populations.

There is also a strong humanitarian element in these discussions. Voters want asylum seekers to have human rights protections. They argue a well-regulated immigration system can benefit the country by bringing in individuals who contribute positively to communities and the economy. Sentiments in this group are generally more optimistic and focused on the potential for policy reforms that balance security concerns with the need for inclusivity and economic growth.

A Minority Want Increased Immigration

The smallest segment of Americans supports increasing immigration levels. This view is driven primarily by humanitarian concerns and the belief in the positive impact of diversity. Often progressives and libertarians, this group focuses on America's moral and ethical responsibility to provide refuge to those fleeing persecution and violence.

Increased immigration proponents say the United States, as a nation built on immigration, has a duty to welcome those seeking better lives and to support their integration into society. They also emphasize the economic benefits of immigration, particularly the need for a growing workforce to sustain economic growth and address labor shortages in certain industries.

Advocates point out immigrants bring a wealth of skills, perspectives, and cultural richness which contributes to the vitality of the nation. Discussions include calls for comprehensive immigration reform that expands opportunities for legal immigration and strengthens support systems for newcomers. The tone in this group is often one of compassion and a belief in the long-term benefits of a more open and inclusive immigration policy.

Americans are talking about young men leaving the Democratic Party, highlighting a significant potential shift in political alignment. The exodus is driven by personal experiences, economic concerns, and identity issues.

Many young, Gen Z American men, particularly from working-class or middle-class backgrounds, feel the strain of economic challenges. They worry about housing affordability, rising living costs, and tax policies they perceive as harmful to their financial stability.

Carville: Young Men Are Leaving The Democratic Party In Droves, Numbers Are "Horrfiying" https://t.co/1FJBvyPJ1v

— RCP Video (@rcpvideo) April 3, 2024

MIG Reports analysis shows this demographic likely includes primarily white or non-minority men aged 18-35. This group perceives the Democratic Party as increasingly out of touch with their needs, especially concerning traditional masculine and economic policies.

Data shows around 25% of young Democratic men discussing their political stance online appear to be abandoning the Party. They discuss actively seeking alternatives, with a large proportion aligning with more conservative or libertarian ideologies.

Disillusionment and Lack of Representation

Many young men feel the Democratic Party no longer represents their interests, particularly concerning issues like traditional masculinity, economic policies, and governance. They express frustration and a sense of marginalization, feeling the Party's focus on legalistic frameworks and social issues does not align with their personal experiences.

This sentiment of alienation prompts words like "discrimination," "masculinity," "disillusionment," "failed policies," and "representation," in discussions. These men sense that Democratic leaders are increasingly distant from the Party’s original, working-class roots. They say liberals are now more focused on identity politics and equity rather than actionable policies.

Economic Concerns and Housing

Many young men believe Democratic policies have failed to address their economic struggles. This leads them to explore Republican policies which they believe offer better economic stability and solutions to housing affordability. They perceive that Democratic elites are “out of touch," expressing doubt that Party leaders understand or prioritize the struggles of the middle class.

The critique of tax policies, particularly concerning Harris’s proposal for unrealized capital gains taxes proposed, angers homeowners and men who view themselves as breadwinners. MIG Reports data shows 60% of discussions include stories of personal economic challenges directly linked to housing policies. Nearly 30% of this cohort express a drastic shift toward Republican support.

Shift Toward Conservative Alternatives

Young Democratic men are showing noticeable shift toward Republican figures—particularly Donald Trump. They view him as embodying a strong, masculine leadership style that resonates with this demographic. This view particularly spread following Trump’s attempted assassination and his action during and after the event.

Libertarian views emphasizing smaller government and economic independence are also gaining traction within this voter group. Phrases like "Trump represents economic stability," and "we need Trump back" are frequently mentioned.

There is a growing belief that Trump's leadership would better address men’s economic struggles than Kamala Harris’s. In addition to nearly 30% indicating a shift toward Republicans, another 10% express movement toward alternative or libertarian candidates.

Polarization and Urgency

Sentiment trends suggest young men feel an urgent need to switch allegiances to protect what they view as fundamental freedoms and to counter a perceived leftist agenda. This urgency is felt in urging peers to reconsider their political alignment based on shared experiences and cohort frustrations. Discussions frequently evoke a sense of nostalgia for previous leadership they felt better addressed their concerns, with phrases like "need a strong leader" or "better alternatives."

Nostalgia and Ideological Realignment

There is a sense of nostalgia and a yearning for political dynamics that resonate more closely with traditional values. This ideological realignment is driven by personal convictions and a desire to reclaim what they perceive as lost ideals, particularly in the realms of economic policy and national identity.

Young men say things like, "I am ready to fight tooth and nail for my future," revealing a deep personal investment in the outcomes of political decisions. This suggests many are not simply changing parties but are also motivated by a passionate desire to reclaim what they view as lost ideals.

The trend of job report numbers consistently being revised down is revealing a worse job market to Americans who are unhappy. Many feel deceived by the initial reports indicating a more robust job market, only for them to be corrected later to reveal a less optimistic reality—which more closely aligns with many workers’ experiences.

There is a growing sense of distrust and frustration towards the agencies and media sources reporting current job figures. People feel misled and uncertain about the true state of the job market, which complicates personal and financial planning.

JUST IN: The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.1%, going over 4% for the first time since November 2021.

- 74% of jobs added last month came from government and healthcare education.

- May jobs were revised down from 272K to 218K.

- April jobs were revised down from 165K to… pic.twitter.com/gHtXhW9EtP

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 5, 2024

Anger Over Job Growth Only in Government

One viral topic around jobs includes news that most of the new job creations were government and education jobs. For many Americans, this has multiple implications on their perception of economic health and labor market dynamics.

In general, reactions are negative. Many interpret this as a sign of an economy relying too much on government intervention rather than private sector growth. They say it’s indicative of a stagnant private sector that is being choked by inflation and regulation.

Government employment is typically considered more stable, implying a potential increase in job security for those lucky enough to secure these roles. However, an economy heavily tilted towards government employment makes many workers feel that unnecessary jobs are being artificially created instead of driven by private sector growth.

Some also claim these government jobs are created specifically to pad job numbers.

This is how the Biden Department of Labor is fudging the data now: all job openings are government. pic.twitter.com/udxQSeKj0f

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2024

Many people are doubtful about the sustainability and impact of government job creation. They say an increase in government jobs does not create a healthy, flourishing economy. They also point out the rising unemployment rates among certain demographic groups, questioning the effectiveness of the administration's policies.

Arguments Over “Black Jobs”

A particularly contentious point of conversation is around employment for black Americans. During the first presidential debate, Donald Trump used the term to underscore issues like job displacement due to illegal immigration or underemployment in black communities.

On social media, this controversy led to heated debates over terms like "black jobs" and "black unemployment," illustrating the divide in how different groups interpret and discuss labor market outcomes. Democrats and progressives took the opportunity to criticize Trump for differentiating “black jobs” in their own category.

Republicans mostly reacted by highlighting the rise in black unemployment rates over the past year, despite reported overall job growth. They allege the gains in government jobs are not translating into meaningful employment opportunities for black workers.

Voters on the right argue Trump’s main point was to highlight unemployment specifically within the black community. They assert discussing "black jobs" is merely a way to highlight employment opportunities and challenges faced by black Americans, akin to other demographic-specific economic indicators.

Preferences for the Trump Economy

Trump supporters of all racial and ethnic backgrounds express a strong belief that the job market was at its peak during Trump’s administration. They especially point to black unemployment rates. They cite figures showing black unemployment hit a record low of 5.3% in 2019 under Trump. These supporters often frame their arguments around the belief that illegal immigration is undercutting job opportunities for black Americans.

They maintain that Trump’s administration ushered in significant gains for minority employment, despite sharp rises in unemployment during COVID. To conservatives, Biden’s tenure has not continued these successes. They say economic recovery, especially for black Americans, has been dismal.

Conversely, Biden supporters and liberals accuse Trump and his constituents of using racially charged rhetoric to pit black Americans against immigrants. They point to the record lows in black unemployment achieved under Biden administration in 2023 as evidence that Biden is improving the job market for black Americans.

Democrats highlight investments in infrastructure and historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) as part of a broader strategy that includes focusing on economic development and community welfare. Many liberal voices decry the term “black jobs” as racially insensitive and misleading. They emphasize that job creation and employment statistics should not be segregated by race.

The Biden-Harris administration is currently facing significant criticism on multiple fronts. Among the top issues consistently emerging in discussions are inflation and illegal immigration. These issues are a core driver of voter dissatisfaction with the administration's shortcomings.

Economic and border issues are creating a potent mix of anger and frustration from Biden detractors. MIG Reports analyzed recent online discussions and identified other issues such as crime and education impacting Biden’s approval.

Voters are particularly disillusioned in these demographic groups:

Economic fears

• Middle-class Americans
• Suburban residents
• Middle-aged to older voters who are economically strained

Open border critics

• Many young voters
• Anti-establishment voters
• Conservative and border state Americans

Biden’s broken promises

• Black and other minorities

Inflation

Most Americans cite inflation and the economy as a primary concern. They argue inflation has significantly worsened under Biden’s tenure, often mentioning high gas and grocery prices.

Voters say Biden’s policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act, have failed to mitigate price increases. They feel their purchasing power eroding, making everyday life more expensive. Related topics like increased housing costs and high mortgage rates also accompany inflation discussions, emphasizing the financial strain households are feeling.

Illegal immigration

A major area of concern for voters continues to be border security. Critics blame the Biden administration for lax border policies which have resulted in a massive influx of illegal immigrants.

People often link border issues to crime, with many pointing out the rise in illegal immigration contributes directly to an increase in violence and drug trafficking. How the Biden administration is handling border issues often features in discussions. There is a heavy focus on egregious border mismanagement and its socio-economic impact.

Crime Rate

There is special attention on crime rates in major cities, which have become a flashpoint. Voters accuse the Biden administration of not doing anything to combat rising crime.

Many say the administration’s law enforcement policies are ill-advised and lackluster. This criticism is often linked to inflation and immigration, forming a narrative that crime is part of a larger systemic failure.

Education

There are discussions about how public schools are managed, with many disapproving of progressive ideology indoctrination. There are also still debates about controversial school closures and how education resumed during COVID. Critics argue unjustified restrictions have led to an irreversible decline in educational standards and student performance.

Sentiment Trends

Trending Downward

The prevailing for Biden campaign sentiment is increasingly negative. Complaints encompass frustrations over economic hardship, the deterioration of public safety, and dissatisfaction with national policy direction. There is anger towards how Biden is handling domestic and foreign policy, particularly regarding financial aid to Ukraine and how it is prioritized over American needs.

Switching Sides

Some trends suggest Biden supporters who become Trump voters are often motivated by economic dissatisfaction. They argue under Trump, various economic indicators such as gas prices, grocery prices, and unemployment rates were better managed. These Trump converts say he created a more stable financial environment. Similarly, Trump’s stricter immigration policies and more effective national security and public safety policies seem to also attract new supporters.

Demographic Patterns

The largest loyalty shifts appear most noticeable among middle-class and working-class voters who feel their economic conditions have worsened under the Biden administration. Many black voters and other minority groups also feel disenfranchised by Biden. They say he has failed to live up to his promises of improving their economic and social standing.

National sentiment data indicates many of these voters are feeling financial pressure and uncertainty, exacerbating their desire for a change in leadership.

Sentiment trends reflect a sense of betrayal and disappointment among previous Biden supporters. This is particularly evident among voters who once appreciated Biden's affiliation with the Obama administration or were influenced by local connections to him. A growing number of these disillusioned voters are turning to Trump, motivated by a belief that he would be tougher on immigration, rollback economic policies they believe are harmful, and better protect individual freedoms.

Demographic patterns suggest this shift is not uniform across all groups but is particularly notable among the working-class, suburban voters, and middle-aged to older Americans. Some young voters who feel passionately about issues like economic justice or immigration reform are also expressing disenchantment, although they may be more likely to turn towards progressive alternatives than to Trump.

President Joe Biden’s decision to approve a $1 billion weapons deal with caveats regarding Israel's attack on Rafah has elicited a wide range of reactions from American voters. This contradicting stance from Biden reflects and potentially deepens divisions and evolving attitudes among voters. MIG Reports analysis of these reactions, including any notable changes in sentiment over time, reveals three positions: America First, pro-Israel, and pro-Palestine.

Both American voters and lawmakers express frustration over what they perceive as Biden's inconsistent policy. Critics argue that, despite Biden’s statements, the reality on the ground does not justify a stringent enforcement of the condition that aid should not be used to target Rafah. The perception of hypocrisy is heightened by ongoing reports of civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza.

Some view Biden’s inconsistencies as an attempt to straddle a growing split in the Democratic Party over Israel versus Palestine support. Others view it simply as weak or unprincipled foreign policy.

Support for the Weapons Deal

Many voters who support the weapons deal argue it is crucial for Israel’s national security and its fight against Hamas. They emphasize Israel’s right to defend itself, especially considering recent conflicts and terrorist attacks by Hamas. Supporters emphasize the strategic necessity of the deal, framing it as a defensive measure against terrorism.

Some underscore the historical alliance between the United States and Israel, viewing the deal as a continuation of longstanding diplomatic and military support. This group often references Israel's role as a key ally in the Middle East and a bulwark against regional instability.

Critics of Supporting Israel

Many progressive and pro-Palestine voters express concerns about the humanitarian impact of the weapons deal. They cite the ongoing conflict in Gaza, arguing more weapons to Israel exacerbates the suffering of Palestinian civilians, including children. This group points out the psychological toll and destruction witnessed in Gaza, questioning the morality of further militarizing the region.

There is also a vocal contingent that questions the ethics and accountability of U.S. foreign policy. They argue U.S. support for Israel perpetuates a cycle of violence and undermines efforts for a peaceful resolution. This group often cites incidents of civilian casualties and accuses Israel of committing war crimes or genocide.

Political and Ideological Divides

Right versus left

The political right generally supports the weapons deal, aligning it with a broader pro-Israel, anti-terrorism stance. The left, however, is more divided, with progressive factions being particularly critical of Israeli policies and advocating for Palestinian rights.

Religious influences

Evangelical Christians in the United States, a key demographic within the Republican base, often support strong U.S.-Israel ties based on religious and prophetic beliefs. Conversely, secular and some younger Jewish Americans are more likely to critique Israeli policies, reflecting a generational shift. 

Demographic Changes Over Time

Young voters, particularly millennials and Gen Z, have shown increasing support for Palestinian rights over time. This demographic tends to view the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a human rights lens and is more critical of U.S. military aid to Israel. Social media platforms and high-profile protests have amplified this perspective, making it more visible and influential.

Minority Communities

Jewish Americans

Jewish American opinion is increasingly polarized. While many older Jewish Americans remain staunchly pro-Israel, younger Jews are more likely to critique Israeli policies. Organizations like J Street have gained prominence, advocating for a two-state solution and more balanced U.S. policy.

African Americans

There is growing solidarity between African American activists and Palestinian advocates, rooted in shared experiences of systemic oppression and racial injustice. This has translated into increased skepticism towards U.S. support for Israel within these communities.

Latino and Asian Americans

While less monolithic in their views, there is a noticeable trend towards questioning U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East among these groups, particularly among younger individuals who are more likely to engage with global social justice movements.

Shifts in Mainstream Media and Public Discourse

Mainstream media coverage and public discourse around the Israel-Hamas conflict have evolved, with more platforms providing progressive viewpoints and highlighting Palestinian suffering. A traditionally pro-Israel American populous seems to be shifting. Mainstream and social media seem to be large contributors to changing public perceptions, particularly among younger people.

Recent anti-Trump conversations online show opposition to Trump's policies and personality but also a paradoxical hope among some for his re-election. This sentiment stems from a belief that a second Trump term could catalyze activism and protest. The dialogues reflect discontent with current Democratic leadership, as well as emerging patterns from younger, more diverse demographics.

In anti-Trump discussions, MIG Reports data shows:

• 30% discuss political identity
• 25% discuss protest and political activism
• 25% discuss economic issues
• 20% discuss civil liberties

Trump as a Catalyst for Protest

A recurring theme in anti-Trump conversations is the desire for Trump to win, not as an endorsement of his policies, but as an opportunity to mobilize protest movements. Certain anti-Trump factions say his presidency would create adversarial conditions for grassroots activism or hijacking corporate-fed movements which raged in 2020.

This group often uses language hinting at preparations for confrontation, with phrases like “prepare for protests” signaling a willingness to endure Trump’s policies for the sake of galvanizing opposition. This attitude is particularly prominent among younger progressives, who perceive a Trump victory as defining their political identity through resistance.

The notion that only an antagonist like Trump can spur movements reach their full potential has taken hold in various groups. Such views echo past reactions, such as the women's marches after Trump’s initial inauguration, where resistance served as a central theme in political engagement.

Minorities and Young Voters are Leaning Trump

There is also growing involvement among younger voters and diverse communities, especially Latino and African American populations. These groups are increasingly dissatisfied with both Trump and the Biden-Harris leadership. However, some younger Latino men shifted slightly towards Trump, citing economic concerns and stability they feel Democrats have failed to provide.

This demographic shift represents a significant divergence from traditional political loyalties. Younger voters, particularly those from minority communities, are vocalizing their frustration with what they perceive as the hypocrisy of establishment politicians. These voters are resistant to both Trump and the Democratic Party’s inability to address their economic and cultural concerns.

Generational Tensions

In addition to demographic diversity, there are also generational tensions. Older generations often frame the current political struggle through historical analogs like 1930s Germany). They mention the rise of authoritarian regimes and similar patterns in modern America.

Younger voters focus more on present-day concerns like identity politics and social justice. This generational divide reveals how different groups engage with the political system and respond to anti-Trump sentiments in various ways.

Strategic Forecast and Predictive Analysis

The ongoing discourse suggests if Trump wins a second presidency, his candidacy could reignite the forces propelling his opponents into action during his first term. Narratives also suggest dissatisfaction with both major parties could lead to more fragmented voting patterns, particularly in battleground states. If this happens, it could continue a trend of using social movements to gain political power rather than voting efforts.

A growing sense of disillusionment with systemic governance permeates discussions, with voters increasingly rallying around issues of civil liberties, economic justice, and identity politics. The dialogues imply that Trump’s candidacy could serve as a unifying force for these groups, albeit through their shared opposition to his policies.

Impact on Electoral Dynamics

If ideological movements continue to mobilize activists, it may lead to significant shifts in the traditional electoral map. States that have historically leaned conservative may see increased competition from progressive candidates, particularly those who resonate with the cultural and economic concerns of younger voters. The rise in political engagement, coupled with a heightened focus on grassroots movements, could potentially reshape the strategic priorities of both political parties in the future.

Quantitative Insights

While the primary analysis is qualitative, some quantitative patterns emerge:

• Protest Mobilization: 40-60% of anti-Trump discussions reflect a desire for activism and protest if Trump wins.
• Demographic Shifts: 25-35% of the anti-Trump discourse is driven by younger voters, emphasizing their growing influence in political discussions.
• Civil Liberties Concerns: Roughly 20% express concerns about authoritarianism, particularly focusing on civil liberties under both Trump and Harris.

Anti-Trump sentiments reveal a complex and evolving political landscape. Americans who oppose Trump’s policies also want to use his presidency as a touchstone for political activism. Trends suggest a growing mobilization among voters, particularly those eager to challenge the political status quo.

Over the weekend, a video of President Joe Biden ignoring a black woman holding Biden-Harris sign during a campaign rally quickly went viral. MIG Reports data show reactions to this video, amid larger questions of the President's fitness for office, are divisive and partisan.

Discussion About the Viral Clip

In the clip, President Biden is shaking hands and taking photos with supporters behind event fencing. People pointed out that he seemed to dismiss and pass over a smiling young black woman, instead greeting some white women beside her. Many people also commented on the young woman’s face which looked like excitement quickly turned to disappointment and rejection.

Smitten black girl rejected by Biden who instead stopped to take selfies with old angry white women. pic.twitter.com/iKWM52AMeP

— John Curtis (@Johnmcurtis) July 5, 2024

The viral video quickly became a focal point for discussions about Joe Biden's relationship with his supporters, particularly among black and other minority communities. The video itself generated disappointment, outright anger, and ridicule. These emotions were palpable across various social media platforms as Americans shared the clip.

Several people recalled a 2020 campaign moment when then-candidate Biden asserted any black Americans who vote for Trump “ain’t black.” Another clip of a white woman standing beside the young black woman seemingly angrily rebuking her also drew criticism. Many on the right highlighted it as an example of white Democrats who virtue signal about race while, themselves, treating minorities poorly.

Look at how poorly the rude little old lady treats this young woman on Biden's rope line.

Lots of people are posting the clip of Joe ignoring the woman, but her mistreatment by the hag on her left needs to be seen as well.

I honestly feel bad for her. pic.twitter.com/qFTikvLFH9

— Brick Suit (@Brick_Suit) July 6, 2024

Many Americans expressed frustration that the President would seemingly disregard a supporter. They view the incident as indicative of broader troubles his administration is facing with African American communities.

Frustrations for black Democratic voters are often tied to feelings of being undervalued or ignored by the party claiming to protect their interests. Critics argue this moment exemplified a pattern of neglect which needs to be addressed more broadly which only worsens tensions within the party.

Racial Dynamics and Democrats

Broader conversations around Joe Biden have evolved significantly between 2020 and 2024. In 2020, the focus was largely on Biden’s history, particularly his past legislative roles which adversely affected black communities. People pointed out his involvement with the 1994 Crime Bill.

Many also highlighted his choice of Kamala Harris as a running mate as being a progressive move toward diversifying leadership and as a strategic effort to secure the African American vote. The conversations then were a blend of cautious optimism and skepticism, with many adopting a “wait and see” attitude.

In 2020, many black voters viewed Biden as a preferable alternative to Trump, largely due to his association with Barack Obama and promises of restorative justice and policy reforms targeting systemic racism. Since then, there appears to be a notable shift.

In 2024, there is growing frustration over Biden’s unfulfilled commitments on racial issues. This sentiment is evident in the discussion surrounding the video and broader topics of economic disparity, police reform, and equitable healthcare access.

Some Democrats also view Kamala Harris’s achievement as the first female, black vice president as being overshadowed by unaddressed systemic issues. This leads to debates within the Democratic voter base about the efficacy and sincerity of the current administration's efforts.

Related Conversations About Race

There are several topics dominating online discussion:

• Disenfranchised black Democratic voters
• Perceived racism within the Democratic Party and broader politics
• The performance and future of Kamala Harris

Sentiment among Democratic voters centers on feeling disenfranchised and ignored by party leaders. This amplifies a sense of betrayal on promises unmet since the 2020 election.

There are also internal debates among Democrats about the party’s true commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion. Some are questioning actions by Biden and other progressive Democrats that appear tokenistic and pandering rather than substantive.

Conversations about Kamala Harris often intersect with these themes. Some view her candidacy as integral to the future of racial equality in American leadership. Others criticize her performance and accuse the administration of using her as a shield against accusations of racism while not delivering on substantial policy changes.

As more American voters begin to think about the presidential election this fall, they are beginning to express concerns about political turmoil. MIG Reports analysis shows online discussion about increased turmoil in the form of violent, economic, and political contentions. While Democrats and Republicans typically emphasize different dangers, both sides seem to fear election interference and political violence.

The extent and nature of any pre-election turmoil could significantly impact voter sentiment and turnout, potentially affecting the election's outcome.

Mutual Worries Among Liberals and Conservatives

Most voters are concerned about corruption and unethical behavior within the government. They believe politicians are not acting in the best interest of the public and are instead focused on power and political agendas.

Election Interference

One of the most prominent concerns among all voters, regardless of party, is the possibility of election interference. For Democratic voters, fears seem to center more around potential foreign interference. Republican voters more frequently express skepticism about domestic interference from the Democrat party.

Political Violence and Riots

Memories of January 6 still loom large in the minds of many Democrats. This causes anxiety about the potential for increased “far-right violence,” whether Trump or Biden is reelected. Republicans worry more about politicized violence from leftist activists like Black Lives Matter or anti-Israel protesters. Both sides seem to fear political riots are highly likely no matter who wins the election.

October Surprises

The tradition of October surprises—major news stories breaking shortly before the election—also contributes to worries about election turmoil. Voters fear that such events could sway the election outcome, though there are many speculations as to what an October Suprise might be.

• National sentiment toward the economy, COVID, election integrity and protests have been decreasing in the last two weeks.
• Republicans voice concerns about a potential resurgence of COVID lockdowns and Democrats often worry about election interference.

Black Swan Events Could Bring Upheaval

Black swan events are unpredictable events which have potentially severe consequences. Given their nature, it's challenging to forecast what these could be – but many voters think of recent black swan events like COVID-19.

Some of the black swan events voter mention include:

• Significant escalation in international conflicts
• A global economic crisis
• Environmental or natural disasters
• Another public health or pandemic event

Any major black swan event could dramatically reshape the political landscape and voter sentiment.

Conservatives and right leaning voters are more likely to suggest black swan events like another public health crisis, causing renewed government lockdowns. They are also more likely to mention global economic situations which could severely impact American commerce and quality of life.

Liberal and left leaning voters are more likely to mention wars and conflicts breaking out internationally. They may also be more concerned about potential natural disasters or climate chaos due to climate change.

Republican Fears About Election Turmoil

Republican voters often speak out about potential changes to election laws which they believe could lead to fraud. They cite things like expanded mail-in voting or removal of voter ID laws as election dangers.

These voters also worry about violent protests or riots related to racial or social justice issues. There are also growing concerns about violent anti-Israel protests which could destabilize communities and potentially sway voter sentiment.

While Democrats talk more about misinformation online, some right leaning voters also worry about social media censorship or bias against conservative viewpoints. Many of this group believe that important information was suppressed during the 2020 election which, if voters had known, may have shifted opinions.

Overall, many voters express a lack of trust in the electoral process and legal system. Many Republicans feel the system is corrupt and untrustworthy, expressing disillusionment with the voting process in general. There is a growing sense that voting is becoming futile because of bureaucratic and power-grabbing tactics by corrupt politicians and institutions.

Democratic Fears in 2024

Democrats often voice concern about voter suppression, particularly impacting minority communities. They tend to place this as an important issue which could impede a fair election.

Liberals are also more vocal about the spread of misinformation and disinformation, particularly on social media platforms. This is a shared concern among many voters, but Democrats tend to express more concern about how misinformation may influence voter sentiment and election integrity.

There are some Democratic voters who worry about President Biden's mental fitness, particularly given his age. While this is a worry that many don’t express publicly, those that do fear it could deter Democrats from supporting him in 2024.

Many Democrats also fear the party is not doing enough to address pressing issues like racial and social justice. They fear Biden’s unwillingness to support Palestine or failing to engage with social issues could impact Democratic voter sentiment.

Democratic voters also have deep concerns about the potential impact of a Trump win on the nation's standing in the world. They fear if Trump returns to power, the U.S. may align more with Putin's Russia, which could have consequences for international relations and national security. There is also a strong sentiment among Democratic voters that a potential Trump win could lead to authoritarian rule.

A second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is generating strong reactions across the political spectrum. As details of the attempt unfold, voters express a range of emotions, from shock and outrage to skepticism and fear.

Ryan Wesley Routh, an individual who reportedly claimed ties to the Ukrainian International Legion, is the suspect in Sunday's attempt to assassinate former President Trump. Many are discussing Routh’s history of anti-Trump rhetoric, and online posts expressing disdain for his presidency. This, combined with apparent support for Biden and Harris is causing wide speculation about his motives. The attempt reignites tensions between Democrats and the media against American voters, causing debates about the state of American democracy.

The top emerging themes of discussion include:

• The alleged assassin's political affiliations and motivations.
• The role of Democrats and the media in inciting hatred and violence against Trump.
• Connections between Routh and Ukraine, the CIA, and other international actors.
• Demands for accountability and repercussions for inciting or engaging in violent behavior.
• The deepening divisions and partisan polarization within American society.

Voter Reactions

Voter reactions are largely splintered along partisan lines, revealing not only anger and fear but stark differences in how various groups interpret the event.

Republicans: Outrage and Betrayal

Among Republicans, the attempt on Trump’s life was met with overwhelming outrage. Many are furious about threats to Trump's safety after recurring calls for greater security and warnings of more attempts following the Butler, PA, attempt.

There are accusations against Democrats and mainstream media, who many view as inciting violence through inflammatory rhetoric and hostile coverage of Trump. Many on the right view the media as especially hypocritical. They say news outlets have exposed their double standards in blaming J.D. Vance for bomb threats in Springfield, Ohio, while also blaming Trump for the attempts on his own life.

Many Republicans express fears and concerns over the potential of assassination attempts being part of a coordinated effort from adverse motivations within the deep state. Allegations about Routh’s connections to the CIA and Ukraine fuel these theories. Speculations emerge that international actors or corrupt U.S. agency officials are connected to a plot to remove Trump from political life.

Democrats: Hesitation and Skepticism

Democratic voters are promoting what they call a measured response. While some voice relief that Trump is unharmed and condemn the violence in general terms, many also take a dismissive attitude. They focus on civility, “toning down rhetoric,” and discuss Trump’s gun views.

There was also a noticeable level of skepticism among certain Democrats, with some questioning suggestions that this was a serious assassination attempt. A minority even speculate that Trump may have staged one or both attacks as part of a political ploy.

Among Democrats, there more citing Trump’s own rhetoric as a cause of the attempted violence. Some in the media and voters online lament the possibility of the attempted assassination generating sympathy or votes for Trump in November.

Democratic skepticism is driven by a perception that Trump has manipulated media narratives in the past to gain sympathy and political advantage. Many call for a closer examination of the suspect’s motivations and affiliations before making any concrete judgments about the incident’s significance.

Independents: Frustration and Calls for Nuance

Independents voice frustration with the extreme partisanship on both sides. Many express a desire for more nuanced discussions about the assassination attempt, avoiding knee-jerk reactions they say come from partisans.

These voters want deeper investigations into Routh’s background and motives. They also question how this may reflect a broader issue of external influence or political extremism in American society. Some also highlight the media’s role in exacerbating political tensions, suggesting both sides contribute to a toxic atmosphere.

Emerging Themes

As discussions about the assassination attempt unfold, several key themes became evident across voter groups:

Questions About Deep State Involvement

Among Trump supporters, the alleged connections between Routh, the CIA, and Ukraine are at the forefront of discussions. Many believe the assassination attempt was part of a larger plan to silence Trump and prevent his political resurgence.

Partisan Polarization and Accusations

Both sides demonstrate the growing division in American politics. Trump supporters blame Democrats and the media for inciting violence, while some Democrats downplay the incident or redirect attention toward Trump’s own rhetoric. Accusations of hypocrisy run rampant, with both sides questioning the other’s commitment to condemning political violence.

Media Criticism

The role of the media in covering the assassination attempt is a significant focus of voter frustration, particularly among Republicans. Media outlets such as CBS, MSNBC, and The New York Times receive anger for their portrayals of Trump as a "threat to democracy." Many say the media is to blame for raising the rhetorical temperature, despite its own accusations against Trump.

Calls for Accountability

Across the political spectrum, voters want greater accountability—either for those inciting violence or those downplaying it. Many voters express the need for repercussions for both media figures and political leaders who contributed to the current climate of hostility.

Many on the right also want repercussions for Secret Service and DHS officials who have allowed these two attempts to take place. They suggest there is either incompetence deserving of firings, or corruption which ought to be cleaned out.