Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a recent Media Intelligence Group report. This data lines up with recent Reuters/Ipsos polling showing Biden’s approval rating at a low of 39% since April.

• MIG data is consistent with surveys by The New York Times, Yahoo Finance and others showing Trump edging out Biden by a few percentage points in head-to-head matchups.
• The former president appears to have an advantage among key demographics including independents, rural voters and working-class whites.

30-Day Sentiment Averages

In the last 30 days, MIG data shows Trump gaining higher support averages than Biden.

 In addition, Trump is gaining noticeably higher sentiments in Nevada, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. 

What Voters Are Saying

Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling reveals Biden hitting a very low approval rating of 39% at the beginning of November. Diving deeper, MIG data shows some of the reasons voters are unhappy with Biden.

 Voter Negativity Toward Biden

• Criticism of Biden, accusing him of supporting genocide, aiding Hamas, and mismanaging the Israel situation.
• Biden receives negativity from both sides regarding Ukraine. Some say he has deceivedthe
• American people and over-funded Ukraine, while others lament that he has not done enough. Critics also blame Biden for high inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing gas prices.
• Backlash for high national debt and accusations Biden is negatively impacting the housing market and food prices.
• Displeasure overall for “Bidenomics.”
• There is still severe dissatisfaction with Biden’s perceived mishandling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
• Many voters argue that the Biden administration has actively encouraged illegal immigration and
• compromised border security.
• There are also concerns about Biden family corruption and calls for the Justice Department to act and investigate.

 Criticisms of Trump

• Despite a slim lead in support sentiment, MIG data shows voters are also divided on Trump with some asserting he will likely not be able to win against Biden.
• There are still many concerns over Trump’s indictments and possible legal ramifications prior to the election.
• Many voters express positivity towards the Trump economy, but he also receives criticism for contributing to the national debt.
• In recent weeks, some of Trump’s comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict have caused negativity.
• Many voters still feel Trump has such bad character that he should not be permitted to serve as president again.
• There are expressions that the MAGA movement and Trump himself are racist bigots.

The Outlook for Both Candidates

• Overall, support numbers for Biden and Trump have shown Trump with a lead for the last 30 days.
• Voters give Trump higher marks on core issues like the economy, immigration and national security.
• Though both are significantly unpopular with certain groups, Biden suffersadditional doubts about his age and mental fitness; Trump maintains staunch support from his Republican base. Trump still faces considerable legal vulnerabilities that could still dampen his standing.
• Biden retains a slightly more favorable image among moderates and is less divisive among Democrats.

Louisiana Representative Mike Johnson emerged from obscurity last week, rising to Speaker of the House at a critical junction for Conservatives and America as a whole. Johnson faces his first test as Speaker, grappling with the decision of whether to prioritize the calls of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Senators alike for joint Israel-Ukraine aid or the Conservative Grassroots’ demand to prioritize domestic crises, as America faces record-breaking surges in illegal migrant encounters and rising overdose rates. With a solid grounding in conservative principles and an unapologetic commitment to his faith-driven worldview, Johnson’s career has been the embodiment of the ongoing battle between everyday Conservatives and the entrenched elites of D.C. Hailing from Shreveport, Mike Johnson is no stranger to swamps, but now this modern-day Cajun David will be put to his first major test as he takes on the Goliath that is the Washington Establishment.

Mike Johnson was little known to much of America prior to his election as Speaker. A new report from Media Intelligence Group, which employs state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology to monitor online discussions surrounding politicians and political issues, found that prior to his election, Johnson was hardly discussed by social media users. In fact, in all of September, just 820 users nationally mentioned Johnson online. That all changed when Johnson rose to be elected the 56th Speaker of the House. On October 25th alone, Johnson’s online mentions exploded to 6,056, and he ended October with 16,335 total user mentions.

Johnson’s first week as Speaker quickly disappointed the D.C. establishment. Johnson has gone directly against the Senate’s plea to couple Israel and Ukraine aid into one single package. Instead, Johnson opted to cut Ukraine aid from Israel aid and made funding for Israel aid contingent on a $14 billion cut in IRS funding from Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Both separating Ukraine aid and IRS
cuts immediately met resistance from Senate Democrats and Republicans alike. “That’s a poison pill and non-starter. It’s just not the way we’re going to proceed,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (MD-D) told Politico. Furthermore, Republican Senator Mitt Romney voiced his opposition, “If we're going to have a piece of legislation that actually becomes law, it’s going to include support for Ukraine, as well as Israel..." adding, "Reducing the IRS doesn't make a lot of sense to me."

Johnson’s play to make Israel Aid stand-alone hasn’t been as unpopular with Americans as it has been in the Senate. MIG’s report found that Mike Johnson’s overall average sentiment score, an average of all positive and negative social media comments made towards Johnson to date, has remained high at 49% since announcing the stand alone Israel package. His daily sentiment score, an average of all positive and negative social media comments in a 24 hour window, has also been strong, remaining at or just below 50% each day over the last 7 days. These sentiment scores are considered high for prominent elected officials. For example, President Joe Biden has a 44% overall average sentiment and has not surpassed 45% daily sentiment once in the last 60 days. Despite increased scrutiny on both Johnson’s policy record and personal life since assuming the Speakership, Johnson has maintained both his 49% overall average sentiment and his short-term daily sentiment at elevated levels compared to peers like Biden.

With less than a month until a government shutdown, Speaker Johnson faces both honoring conservative commitments and the dueling priorities between the House and Senate as he fights to deliver Israel aid in its war against Hamas. Johnson’s ability to mobilize House Conservatives in favor of this package will be no small feat, nor will the coming stare down between the House and Senate in reconciling their clashing priorities. Johnson’s success or failure in navigating the choppy political waters in the coming weeks will set the tone for his Speakership. Yet with the latest Israel bill introduced by Johnson, and steadfast conservative principles and faith as his guide, Johnson appears unwavering in the face of the Goliath that is the Washington Establishment.