MIG Reports shows a key demographic for the 2024 presidential election is likely to be white men in rust belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. For many in these states, economics is the most important issue.

White men are not the only voter group—and not the majority. However, there are several winning issues for Trump among this group. In critical swing states where support is tight and sentiment may be threatened by a Kamala Harris candidacy, issues swaying white men could potentially overlap with other voter priorities.

While conservative values and traditional ways of life do not seem to resonate across all demographics, negative economic sentiment, with strong messaging against Biden administration policies, may translate to other voter groups.

Economics

Wisconsin

White male voters in Wisconsin continue to be a significant demographic influencing election outcomes. These voters prioritize economic issues like job security, tax rates, and the cost of living. Manufacturing sector stability, which is affected by trade policies and economic shifts, is crucial to this demographic.

Despite the inclination toward traditional Republican values, concerns over healthcare affordability and social services prompt a nuanced voting pattern. This group's likelihood to vote is relatively high, driven by a sense of civic duty and concern over economic stability and governance.

Michigan

The white male demographic in Michigan is primarily concerned with economic recovery and job growth—especially in the automotive industry, which has historically been the backbone of the state's economy. Key economic issues include trade policies, tariffs, and the impact of automation.

Economic distress in struggling communities elevates concerns over inflation and healthcare costs. This group is highly motivated to vote, energized by economic performance metrics and policies affecting industrial growth and job security.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, white male voters are significantly influenced by economic issues, notably those impacting the energy sector, such as fracking and coal mining. High priorities for this group include job creation, tax policies, and energy independence.

The rural-urban divide strongly influences voter alignment, with urban voters leaning more towards concerns about healthcare and social services. This demographic shows high voter turnout, often driven by direct economic impacts felt in their communities and a strong desire to influence policies on energy and industry regulations.

Minnesota

White male voters in Minnesota are primarily concerned with economic stability, taxation, and the cost of living. Issues such as healthcare, education, and social services also play a role due to Minnesota's relatively high standard of living and educational attainment. Economic policies affecting small businesses, agriculture, and the tech industry are significant motivators.

The likelihood of this demographic to vote is high, influenced by strong social and political engagement traditions in the state and immediate concerns over economic welfare and state policies.

Public Sentiment on Issues

The public conversations surrounding economic issues predominantly feature keywords such as "inflation," "job growth," "taxes," "cost of living," and "healthcare costs." Sentiment toward these issues varies but generally shares a critical view of current economic management.

Inflation

Public sentiment around inflation is overwhelmingly negative, with widespread frustration over rising prices and decreased purchasing power. Comments reflect concerns about the government's role in mitigating inflation and the impact on everyday expenses like groceries and gas. The sentiment trend suggests blame is often placed on Biden administration policies perceived to exacerbate the issue.

Job Growth

Discussions around job growth vary. While some express optimism about job opportunities under certain administrations, others highlight discrepancies in wage growth compared to the increasing cost of living. The trend in sentiment here is mixed, with an underlying concern about job stability and fair wages, as job creation efforts do not always translate into economic security for working families.

Taxes

Taxation is another major topic, with sentiments veering towards criticism of high tax burdens on the middle class. Keywords like "tax cuts" and "tax increases" frequently appear, with frustration aimed at perceived inequities in the tax system. Many argue that tax policies favor the wealthy and corporations over the average taxpayer, deepening economic disparities.

Cost of Living

The cost of living is a critical issue, Americans in the rust belt express stress about affording basic necessities with rising prices. Negative sentiment here is strong, with calls for policies that address wage stagnation and improve affordability for essential goods and services. Public opinion calls for economic measures to alleviate these burdens, reflecting a demand for immediate action.

Healthcare Costs

Healthcare costs also dominate economic discussions, with public sentiment largely critiquing the high expenses associated with medical care. There is a strong desire for reform to make healthcare more affordable and accessible. This issue's sentiment trend shows bipartisan frustration, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the current healthcare system regardless of political affiliation.

Influences on Voter Turnout

There are multiple driving factors that influence white male voting behavior and the probability of turning out to vote. This demographic is particularly significant given the heavy discourse surrounding political ideologies social issues that specifically involve white men in public conversations.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin men often vote strongly on economic issues. There's an emphasis on fiscal conservatism and opposition to expansive government intervention, often labeled as "socialist" or "communist." The notion of "Project 2025," a plan associated with conservative principles, is frequently mentioned to outline policy preferences that favor deregulation and a reduced federal footprint in state affairs. The sentiment here is mostly distrust of liberal overreach and a desire to reclaim local autonomy.

Michigan

White male voter concerns are tied to the manufacturing sector in Michigan, which has been subject to significant changes over recent decades. Here, keywords like "MAGA," "America First," and "economic nationalism" dominate discussions, reflecting a preference for policies that prioritize American industry and workers. This demographic is deeply skeptical of international trade agreements and immigration policies which could undermine American jobs. These men fear losing traditional economic strongholds and pushback against globalization-fueled economic decline.

Pennsylvania

Energy policies are a driving factor for white male voters in Pennsylvania, especially given the state's historical reliance on coal and natural gas industries. They like candidates who support deregulation and oppose the Green New Deal, which they see as a threat to Pennsylvania’s economy. There is distrust towards federal institutions, suggesting cultural conservatism and wariness of elitism and overreach from liberal politics. This group often prioritizes safety, security, and economic stability over progressive social changes. Voter turnout among this demographic is generally high, driven by a strong sense of civic duty and a belief that their way of life is under threat from liberal policies.

Minnesota

White men in Minnesota often discuss MAGA and communism, revealing an urgency to defend against progressive policy advancements. Public conversations often revolve around crime, policing, and urban policies, indicating a demand for law-and-order approaches. The animosity towards perceived liberal agendas is palpable, with strong resistance to movements for social justice reform, seen as destabilizing forces. This voter group is likely to turn out in significant numbers, driven by a perceived existential threat to their values and way of life.

Following Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential election, media outlets and Democrats have been working hard to position VP Kamala Harris as a formidable challenger to Donald Trump for president. At this early stage in her campaign, many are unclear on how robust her support will be on election day. MIG Reports data on head-to-head comparisons of Trump versus Harris after the first few days of her campaign suggests it may be an uphill battle for Democrats, despite presumably successfully ousting their nominee.

• The day after Biden’s withdrawal, Kamala Harris mentions regarding the presidential election surpassed mentions of Trump 25,000 to 24,000, but subsequently dropped.
• Approval for Harris as the presidential candidate also initially surpassed trump 49% to 44%. But in the following days the gap narrowed to only two points as Trump gained and Harris dropped.
• The percentage of support for Harris versus Trump shows them both at 47% nationally, but Trump has a slight edge in swing states with 49% support to Harris’s 46%.

Kamala Harris

The Youth Vote

Younger voters show a degree of skepticism toward Kamala’s nomination, expressing apprehensions about the transparency of the process. The adherence to procedural democratic norms is crucial for this group, and any deviation triggers calls for more open, participatory processes within the party.

Phrases like "party elites choosing," "delegate process," and "open convention" signify a pushback from segments of the Democratic base who feel their wishes were bypassed. These detractors worry anointing Harris without broader grassroots input may alienate certain voter groups, potentially impacting turnout and enthusiasm in the general election. These themes also seem to counter media claims that Harris's viral "brat summer" influence may not be completely genuine.

Some young progressives show enthusiasm for Harris's liberal stance and representation, marking her as a candidate who symbolizes progressivism and memes. However, the far left of this demographic has concerns that Harris will not push the policy boundaries as far as they desire.

Geography

In battleground and swing states, there is pointed concern about Harris’s ability to capture the critical moderate and Independent vote essential for the general election. Democratic sentiment from these critical regions suggests a mix of cautious acceptance and pragmatic support, recognizing the necessity of a strong candidate to counter Trump's influence.

In Democratic strongholds and among “chronically online” voters, there is a pronouncement of excitement for Kamala’s quirky appeal. This demographic also appreciates her diversity.

Swing states and red states especially criticize Harris on immigration issues and economic concerns. Many polls, and MIG Reports data, show Harris trailing Trump in important states like Pennsylvania where she faces a 46% to 48% deficit.

Key Issues for Harris

Intra-Party Disagreements

Some in the Democratic base focus on her past prosecutorial actions, saying she aligns too closely with the Establishment. Their disillusionment is compounded by the idea that she was “installed” by leaders rather than elected. This is a particular sore point for progressives who felt unfairness over Democratic leaders pushing Bernie Sanders out.

Black Lives Matter progressives have also expressed dissatisfaction, demanding an open primary to allow for public participation in the nomination process. They say Harris’s ascent to the top of the ticket sidesteps true democratic engagement.

Many bring up Harris's historical campaign performance, revisiting her 2020 presidential bid and noting she dropped out before any primary votes were cast. This fuels skepticism about her electability and support base.

The Economy

There is deep frustration from most Americans about the possibility of Harris continuing Biden’s economic policies. People talk about jobs, high inflation, gas prices, and expensive groceries, describing their own economic struggles.

Critiques often link Harris directly to deepening economic woes, highlighting a belief that her policies will continue to exacerbate everyday financial burdens. Voters also emphasize concerns over rising national debt and deficit spending, which they associate with increased inflation rates and economic instability.

Border Security

The U.S. border is also a deep concern aggravating Harris’s negative sentiment. Voters discuss record illegal border crossings and increased economic strain with Harris as “border czar.” People attribute the border crisis to policy failures under her watch. Many on the right also highlight the fact that mainstream media outlets are now attempting to deny Harris’s role as border czar.

Harris’s past actions as a prosecutor and her handling of immigration issues are frequent focal points of dissatisfaction, painting her as ineffective and incompetent. There is also significant disdain for her actions regarding President Biden as people accuse her of covering up Biden’s declining health.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Supporters and critics alike mention her decision not to attend Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to Congress. Most view it as aligning more with pro-Palestinian sentiments than with Israel.

Many comments accuse Harris of giving Hamas a “PR victory.” This perception worsened by her prioritizing meetings viewed as less significant, such as with a sorority group. At the same time, pro-Palestine progressives express dissatisfaction toward the Biden-Harris administration for giving too much support to Israel.

Generally, voters worry about Harris’s ability to manage other sensitive international security issues like the Ukraine-Russia war. People say she offers limited experience in foreign affairs, questioning capacity to handle global security challenges effectively.

Donald Trump

The Youth Vote

Young voters from 18-25 present an interesting demographic for Trump. Many display a profound disillusionment with conventional politics. While much of this demographic expresses disdain for Trump's policies and demeanor, they also seem to dislike Kamala.

Online conversation suggests skepticism toward Trump, with terms like “misogynist” and “racist” frequently mentioned in discussions about his actions and rhetoric. Harris, while facing critiques from the left on her prosecutorial past, resonates more positively with themes of inclusion, diversity, and progressive change.

Younger conservatives, a growing cohort, view Trump as a strong, non-conformist leader, with comments lauding his boldness and critique of the current administration's policies. Supporters in this age group emphasize Trump's promise to restore economic stability, pointing to lower inflation and job opportunities during his tenure.

There is also a noticeable trend among young liberals and Independents who question Trump’s image as a hostile figure. The sentiment "President Trump doesn’t think young people are stupid" surfaces, suggesting a disconnect in how leftists and the media portray young people.

Geography

Trump commands a significant following in rural and certain suburban areas, particularly in the South and the Midwest. Here, voters appreciate his economic policies and business acumen. Urban centers and coastal regions typically support Harris.

Areas with robust manufacturing or energy sectors tend to view Trump’s deregulations and economic policies more favorably. Urban regions heavily affected by tariff retaliations express stronger disapproval.

Key Issues for Trump

Economy and Inflation

A consistent theme favoring Trump centers on his administration keeping inflation low, implementing tax cuts, and maintaining a secure and prosperous economy. Many supporters tout the low inflation rates during his presidency, comparing them favorably to higher rates under the current administration.

Conversely, critics of Trump highlight issues such as the longer-term effects of his tax cuts. They argue cuts disproportionately favor the wealthy and increase the national deficit. Arguments against Trump often include supply chain and manufacturing issues during COVID.

Government Corruption

Many conversations express outrage and suspicion toward the federal agencies responsible for Trump's security. They are furious about the failure and neglect in protecting him during an attempted assassination.

People decry former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle as a symbol of broader systemic issues in government agencies, celebrating her resignation. The public's reaction emphasizes questions about the integrity and competency of federal agencies, with comments frequently accusing them of corruption and ineptitude.

Numerous conversations also speculate about conspiracy theories, proposing the assassination attempt was an "inside job" or part of a larger "deep state" maneuver against Trump. These theories are fueled by inconsistent or false statements made by government officials, reinforcing the perception of a cover-up or evasion.

MIG Reports data shows reactions to Republican National Committee (RNC) speeches are shaping the landscape for the 2024 election. They are resonating significantly with the American people in several key areas like unity, the economy, and immigration.

However, there is also selective perception from both parties. Republicans and conservatives emphasize the policy points they agree with while Democrats and liberals nitpick issues like abortion. Regardless of the RNC platform and content, discussions are often driven by issues voters personally care about.

Many of the speeches given during the RNC highlight themes which are important for the potential trajectory of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign. The central topics are immigration policies, economic strategies, national security, and cultural issues. Discussions on these topics will likely continue shaping the conversation until November.

Trump Speech Breakdown

A statistical breakdown of Trump’s speech highlights the topical themes he touched on by volume. The provides an understanding of what Americans heard and where Trump himself is placing platform emphasis.

Trump’s speech covered the following topics:

Election Campaign & Unity

• The campaign
• American unity
• Vision for the future

Personal Story & Assassination Attempt

• Trump’s personal narrative of the assassination attempt and its implications

Economic Policies

• Inflation
• Jobs
• Energy policies
• Economic relief

Immigration Policies

• Border security
• Immigration

International Policies

• International relations
• Wars
• Global stability

Social Policies

• Law and order
• Healthcare
• Education
• Social justice

An analytical breakdown of topic emphasis according to word count shows:

1. Election Campaign & Unity: 24.3%
2. Personal Story & Assassination Attempt: 23.0%
3. Economic Policies: 20.3%
4. Immigration Policies: 14.9%
5. International Policies: 9.5%
6. Social Policies: 8.1%

In contrast, a breakdown of Trump’s 2016 acceptance speech emphasized:

1. Introduction and Acceptance: 5%
2. Domestic Crisis and Safety: 20%
3. Immigration Policies: 17.5%
4. Economic Policies: 15%
5. International Policies: 15%
6. Social Policies and Justice: 12.5%
7. Anti-Corruption and Reform: 10%
8. Conclusion and Call to Action: 5%

The following breakdown depicts American discussion in response to the RNC throughout the week.

Immigration

American voter conversations indicate the Trump campaign’s talking points resonate heavily on promises of mass deportations. While many voters express hope for this, there was little explicit mention of deportation in RNC speeches. This suggests there is an organic campaign wish from the people.

The importance of a secure border is resonating powerfully with a certain segment of the electorate who are dissatisfied with the current state of immigration policy under the Biden administration. Discussions include policies like ending birthright citizenship and implementing a massive deportation operation. These align with concerns about national security and prevalent economic anxieties. These issues are not mentioned in reference to a specific RNC speaker but remain a high-volume discussion from Americans.

Discussions reveal a split in public opinion on immigration. Many Trump supporters praise his proposed measures as necessary for restoring law and order. Opponents criticize them as xenophobic and inhumane.

Economic Issues

Americans are saying Trump's platform suggests a continuation and amplification of his previous term’s policies. They highlight tax cuts, reducing regulation, and focusing on energy independence with an emphasis on fossil fuels over renewable sources.

While some praise these measures as advantageous for economic growth and beneficial for businesses, critics say they could increase income inequality and harm environmental progress. The call to restrict outsourcing and turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower is echoed in sentiments aiming to bring more jobs back domestically.

National Security

National security remains a significant aspect of RNC messaging and the Trump campaign’s strategy for 2024. The rhetoric around withdrawing from NATO, bolstering military capabilities, and ending foreign conflicts such as those in Ukraine aligns with Trump's America First ideology.

This strikes a strong chord with voters who are wary of prolonged overseas engagements. However, some voices warn that isolating the United States from global alliances and commitments could weaken international relations and security.

Cultural Issues

Cultural issues also featured in RNC speeches, generating commentary among American voters. The strong stances on hot-button topics like abortion, education, and LGBTQ rights are divisive across party lines.

Trump’s platform promises to ban critical race theory (CRT) from schools, return abortion laws to the states, and respect biological sex—especially in sports. These more conservative social stances resonate with a substantial conservative and Christian base.

However, opposition groups and many liberals consider these policies regressive and harmful to civil liberties and social inclusivity. This may be another example of selective perception among liberals. Many Democrats and leftists are focusing on issues like abortion and LGBTQ issues, despite a notable and purposeful absence from the 2024 RNC Platform.

Trending Sentiment

Sentiment on social media and in public discourse continues to be deeply polarized. Proponents of Trump’s policies express enthusiasm and hope for a return to what they view as stronger world leadership, a return to traditional values, and a secure nation.

Detractors express fear and concern about the potential for increasing division, loss of rights, and international isolation under another Trump administration. Discussions about economic promises, high stakes immigration reform, and broad cultural policy shifts highlight a nation deeply engaged and divided over its future path.

As Republican enthusiasm surges following the RNC and Democrats show disagreement and disarray, Senate races in several key states are heating up. Amid a huge news week including Trump’s attempted assassination, J.D. Vance accepting the VP nomination, and the RNC convention, Republicans are making a strong showing in their respective Senate races.

Here is the latest EyesOver and MIG Reports analysis of Senate races in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Montana—all important races for the 2024 elections.

Nevada Senate: Sam Brown vs Jacky Rosen

The Nevada Senate race between Republican Sam Brown and Democrat Jacky Rosen shows Brown leading 60%-40% in head-to-head support. The wide gap in support comes from a significant spike in both approval and mentions for Sam Brown after his RNC appearance.

• Over the last 7 days, Brown's lowest topic approval score is ideologies (culture issues) at 43%, while Rosen's lowest issue is the economy at 43%.
• Brown's highest topic score is a tie between economic issues and border security at 47%. Rosen's strongest topic approval of border security is still low at 42%.
• The top three most discussed topics in discourse mentioning Brown and Rosen were ideologies, economic issues, and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

Candidate Summary

Sam Brown and Jacky Rosen's approval disparity has widened this week after being tied last week. In the last 7 days, Brown saw a 4% lead in approval, averaging 48% to Rosen's 44% in average approval. Brown also saw higher discussion volume than Rosen for the first time over the last 7 days.

Wisconsin Senate: Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde

The Wisconsin Senate race between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde currently shows Hovde leading 57%-43% in head-to-head support. Eric Hovde enjoyed a spike in online mentions due to the RNC.

• Over the last 7 days, Baldwin’s weakest topic approval is border security at 43%. While Hovde’s lowest topic approval score is abortion at 41%.
• Eric Hovde's strongest topics gaining approval are economic issues and border security, both at 47%. Baldwin's highest topic approval is abortion, also at 47%.
• The top three most discussed topics in discourse involving Baldwin and Hovde are ideologies (cultural issues), the economy, and Trump’s attempted assassination.

Candidate Summary

The gap between Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin's voter approval significantly widened compared to last week. Prior to the RNC, both were tied in approval. This week Eric Hovde holds a 47% 7-day average approval to Tammy Baldwin's 42%. This is also the first time Hovde has gained higher discussion volume than Baldwin.

Arizona Senate: Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego

In the race for Arizona Senate, Republican Kari Lake currently holds a narrow lead over Democrat Ruben Gallego, capturing 52% compared to Gallego's 48%.

• On the issues, Kari Lake has the highest support for immigration issues, election integrity, and economic issues, all at 48%.
• Lake’s lowest sentiment issue is gun control at 40%, due to accusations from liberals about her 2A stances following the assassination attempt.
• Ruben Gallego’s highest issue approval is ideologies at 44%.
• His lowest is allegations, which refer to his association with Joe Biden and other unpopular liberals.

Candidate Summary

Ruben Gallego's support score stands at 42%, while Kari Lake's support score is slightly higher at 47%. While the race has been volatile over the last month, this week Lake has maintained an average lead.

Montana Senate: Tim Sheehy vs Jon Tester

Republican Tim Sheehy also holds a lead on Jon Tester in head-to-head support in Montana. Sheehy leads at 53% to Tester’s 47%.

• Over the last 7 days, Sheehy’s highest topic approval score is border security at 47%. Tester’s strongest topic approval score is abortion at 45%.
• Tester's weakest topic approval score is rally at 40%, while Sheehy's is abortion at 41%.
• The three most discussed topics in discourse involving Sheehy and Tester are ideologies, rally, and economic issues.

Candidate Summary

Sheehy and Tester's approval scores remain separated by the same 2% margin as last week, with Tester averaging 44% to Sheehy's 46%. Tester's approval dropped to its lowest point in the last 7 days after the assassination attempt on President Trump but has since recovered.

In recent days, discussions among Democratic leaders regarding President Joe Biden stepping down from the 2024 election have stirred significant controversy. Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff, Kamala Harris, and Hakeem Jeffries appear to be at the center of these conversations. There are also allegations that former president Barrack Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders have called for Biden to step aside.

Speculation about leadership's motives, along with intrigue around the Democratic strategy, is surging, even with much high-profile news happening within the GOP.

Ongoing reporting claims sources indicate Democratic leaders are conducting private talks with Biden, urging him to reconsider his candidacy. They cite his waning ability to win the presidential race and his very publicly declining health. Reports from multiple news outlets suggest these leaders are positioning themselves for a possible leadership transition by delaying the Democratic Party's formal nomination of Biden.

The Current Political Environment

Earth-shattering events in recent weeks like Joe Biden’s debate debacle and an attempt on Donald Trump’s life seem to have sent Democratic political strategies into a tailspin. If the Democrats face an uphill battle in the polls, any pivot on Biden's health will likely significantly hurt his chances of a victory in November. This could push swing voters and even some disenchanted Democrats toward Republicans.

Amid increasing beliefs that Democrats cannot win, their sudden revelations about President Biden’s health only reinforces perceptions of desperation. This is likely to depress voter turnout among their base even further, pushing undecided voters away.

Media portrayal of Biden's health also plays a crucial role in shaping voter perception. Many right leaning outlets have been pointing out the hypocrisy of mainstream media in demonizing anyone who questioned Biden’s health prior to the debate. This is especially egregious as voters observe their instant pivot after the debate.

Voters are increasingly critical of Democrats’ handling of Biden's health. For a long time, the party and the media have downplayed or outright denied any concerns regarding Biden's age and mental acuity. Many voters view this as blatant gaslighting, exacerbating the sense of distrust.

When prominent figures suddenly acknowledge Biden's health issues, many view it as a political maneuver rather than a genuine concern for transparency, further eroding Democratic credibility.

Chuck Schumer Jumps Ship

Senator Chuck Schumer’s involvement in calling for Biden to withdraw adds to the Democratic confusion, given his influential position within the Party. Reactions are mixed, oscillating between support, skepticism, and outright shock. There are voices questioning the timing and motivation behind his alleged meeting asking Biden to step down. Many say Democrats are in pure panic mode.

Social media reactions are particularly telling. Various platforms are flooded with discussions attempting to deconstruct Schumer's motivations and the broader implications for the Democratic Party. Supporters of the decision commend Schumer's bravery, suggesting it signals a period of self-reflection and recalibration within the party. Critics, however, view it as cynical. Others criticize internal conflicts during a crucial election cycle.

• Discussions mentioning Chuck Schumer increased in the last two days as his approval dropped slightly from 48% to 47%.

Adam Schiff Flip Flops

Adam Schiff's previous criticism Robert Hur’s assessment of Joe Biden’s health have sparked a considerable backlash. Now, just a few months later, Schiff is calling for Biden to step down due to infirmity.

Voters have not minced words in their responses, voicing strong support for Biden and criticizing Schiff for what they see as unnecessary and harmful dissent. They perceive Schiff's actions as undermining the unity needed in the Democratic Party to win the upcoming election. Some even call for Schiff to withdraw from the Senate race.

Sentiment among these voters is one of frustration and anger. They accuse Schiff of attempting to invalidate the voices of the 14 million people who voted for Biden. They say his actions are damaging to the Party's 2024 strategy.

Voters are particularly incensed with what they perceive as Schiff's hypocrisy. They say Schiff supported Biden in the past and criticized anyone who questioned his health, only to now use his cognitive abilities as a reason to oust the President.

Many find this sudden change not only disingenuous but also deeply cynical. The sentiment is clear: any attack on Biden at this critical juncture is seen as sabotage, possibly paving the way for a Trump victory.

• Adam Schiff has seen disastrously low approval in the last week, dipping as low as 30%.
• As more people mention him online, sentiment may be restabilizing, but it’s unclear whether most Democratic voters support replacing Joe Biden.

Nancy Pelosi Tears Biden a New One

Nancy Pelosi also seemed to suddenly turn on Joe Biden following his catastrophic debate performance. Pelosi, who is known for her high-level political strategy and maneuvering, spoke out more subtly against Biden at first. But now reports are leaking that Pelosi is openly opposing Joe Biden after years of steadfast defense.

Some Democratic voters express staunch disapproval, arguing Pelosi's actions undermine voter confidence and betray the will of the people. They view this move as a signal of discord within the Democratic Party, potentially handing an advantage to the Republicans.

On the other hand, a smaller number support Pelosi’s stance, advocating for a change in leadership as a strategic move to invigorate the base and improve Democratic chances against a resurgent GOP. They argue Biden’s age and current political standing necessitate a new candidate who can better unify the party and appeal to a broader base.

• At the end of last week, as rumors about Biden stepping down were swirling at their height, Pelosi’s approval dipped to 37%.
• As more Democratic leaders join in calling for Biden to step down, negativity seems to move to other prominent figures.

Voter reactions

Democratic voters are likely to have varied reactions to this abrupt development within the Party. Many of President Biden’s supporters see this strife as a betrayal by key figures within the party. There's a palpable sense of distrust and concern that such an internal coup reflects poorly on the Party's unity and strategic planning.

The immediate and intense debate on social media highlights the factional divides. Some fear sidelining Biden at this juncture could lead to a guaranteed loss.

Meanwhile, those who are frustrated with Biden's age and perceived political liabilities might welcome the calls for new leadership. This faction views a potential change as a strategic necessity to invigorate the party with fresh perspectives and renewed energy.

Overall, Democratic voters are caught in a whirlwind of emotions ranging from anger and betrayal to despair and depression. The discussions over Biden’s candidacy expose deep concerns within the party about its ability to present a unified front in the upcoming elections.

The extent of Democratic disillusionment has led some to consider re-registering as Independents or leaving the Party altogether. They see leadership hypocrisy and maneuvering as a betrayal of democratic principles. Some also interpret these developments as driven by wealthy donors rather than the electorate's genuine interests. This shift could signal a broader discontent that may bode poorly for November.

Judge Aileen Cannon’s decision to dismiss the classified documents case against former President Donald Trump has sparked a whirlwind of reactions amid the firehose of news hitting Americans in the last few days. In her dismissal, she cited the “unlawful appointment and funding of special counsel Jack Smith.”

This news emerged alongside the flurry of other major developments, including Trump's announcement of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential pick and the assassination attempt against Trump.

While news of Judge Cannon dismissing this case may have dominated conversations for several days at any other time, it is now only one among many huge political news stories. Despite this, conversations show the event serving to strengthen Trump’s momentum—especially among his supporters.

• Conversations about Trump regarding his legal issues spiked early in the week, along with a slight bump in sentiment.
• Mentions crossed 5,000 regarding legal topics as sentiment ticked up from 43% prior to the weekend, to 46% with recent news.

Supports Agree with Judge Cannon

Trump supporters view the decision by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon as a vindication, praising it as a just end to what they perceive as a politically motivated witch hunt. They argue the dismissal highlights a misuse of prosecutorial power and underscores their belief in the judiciary being corrupted by liberal forces. Some celebratory posts even suggest the tide has turned against what they label as a weaponized DOJ’s political persecution strategies.

Along with Trump surviving an assassination attempt and appearing, to roaring applause, at the RNC, many on the right view this decision a major victory for Republicans. They speak out against what they perceive as relentless politically motivated attacks by the Biden administration and Democrats.

Many speculate that Trump might reward Judge Cannon for her decision, potentially with an even higher judicial appointment should he regain the presidency. These comments indicate the positive atmosphere Trump supporters are experiencing, emphasizing excitement for Trump’s potential second term.

People also vilify Smith, arguing his appointment was part of a broader scheme by Democrats to derail Trump's political influence. They frame the dismissal as a correction of an illegal and biased prosecution—especially considering Robert Hur’s decision not to prosecute Joe Biden for similar crimes.

Opposition from the Left

Trump opponents are expressing outrage and disbelief. They criticize Judge Cannon, who was appointed by Trump, accusing her of blatant partiality and failure to uphold the rule of law. Prominent Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and left leaning legal experts vehemently argue that Cannon's decision flies in the face of established judicial norms.

Liberals view Judge Cannon’s ruling as an egregious attempt to exonerate Trump despite strong evidence that he mishandled classified information. They stress the necessity for an immediate appeal to overturn what they consider a profoundly flawed and politically biased judgment. This group feels the decision undermines established legal principles and sets a dangerous precedent for the future.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's call to have Cannon reassigned and the decision appealed emphasizes the disbelief and dismay felt among Democrats. Experts predict the dismissal will certainly be appealed, potentially leading to a prolonged legal battle stretching well beyond the next presidential election.

Some suggest this delay tactic might benefit Trump politically, allowing him to use the unresolved case as a rallying cry against perceived legal persecution. Experts also highlight that appellate courts are likely to scrutinize Cannon’s interpretation of the Appointments Clause. They note previous cases involving special counsel appointments, such as that of Robert Mueller, being upheld despite similar arguments.

Despite Republicans hoping to keep the spotlight on Biden’s vulnerabilities and panic among Democrats, there is still significant interest in Trump’s choice for a running mate. Current discussions about Donald Trump's potential VP picks are heating up as people anticipate his impending announcement. MIG Reports data suggest top choices in terms of voter support volume and approval sentiment include Ben Carson, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Byron Donalds.

Within MAGA, there is a strong sentiment against anyone viewed as a RINO (Republican in Name Only). Figures like Doug Burgum and Marco Rubio have come under scrutiny for their insufficient alignment with the MAGA agenda.

Conversely, loyalty to Trump and America First is a crucial criterion for many supporters. Names like J.D. Vance and Ben Carson are frequently mentioned as preferable picks. Vance has garnered support for his commitment to America First and his potential appeal to younger and Rust Belt voters. Similarly, Ben Carson receives praise for his loyalty and personal integrity. However, there are concerns about his age and political charisma.

• MIG Reports data shows Ben Carson leading in both voter support at around 15% and approval sentiment staying above 50% in the last week.
• J.D. Vance is both generating buzz and garnering support with a 13% second position and 48% approval.
• Rubio and Donalds both have lesser support, both around 7% and approval around 48% and 52% respectively.

Speculation About Trump’s Strategy

MAGA and GOP voters are speculating about possible strategies Trump make take to choose his running mate. One prevalent theme is his inclination to choose a Vice President who can expand his voter base by adding a fresh and dynamic appeal. With this strategy J.D. Vance frequently emerges as a favored candidate.

Despite some vocal opposition within the conservative sphere over Vance's past criticisms of Trump, his staunch support in recent years has earned him significant backing. Proponents argue that Vance's youth and vigor could help extend Trump's influence.

Some highlight the potential of picking someone with a strong appeal to minority groups and independents. Candidates like Byron Donalds and Doug Burgum are cited for their potential to attract these voter demographics. Donalds, with his compelling life story and intellect, could resonate with educated minorities and counter the Democratic narratives. Meanwhile, Burgum's less controversial, steady leadership style and his appeal to women and independents due to his moderate positions in certain areas are considered valuable.

Lastly, MAGA voters stress the necessity for a VP who aligns closely with Trump’s vision and can enhance his governance without overshadowing him. Loyalty is paramount, for those hoping for someone who won’t divert from Trump’s established agenda. They want a harmonious and effective administration, as many MAGA voters have adopted criticisms of Trump’s former VP Mike Pence.

While ideological alignment and loyalty are paramount, strategic considerations are also at play. For example, the potential disadvantage of removing Vance from the Senate, where every vote is critical, is a point of concern. There are also mixed feelings about selecting a current governor or senator who might face political complications or risks in their home states, which could impact the broader Republican strategy. Several people also mention those they view as out of the running like Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Kristi Noem.

J.D. Vance

JD Vance brings a fresh perspective to the political scene, particularly appealing to younger voters. His non-traditional background and vocal stance against establishment norms mirror Trump’s outsider appeal.

Vance's life story, including his rise from a challenging upbringing to a successful career, resonates with voters who admire resilience and the American Dream narrative. Nonetheless, his past criticisms of Trump and the controversy over his rapid turnaround might alienate some of Trump's hardcore base.

His stance on controversial issues like abortion may polarize the electorate further, potentially undermining his candidacy. However, Vance’s appeal to the Rust Belt may be an asset, as this could help shore up crucial electoral support in that region.

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio comes with significant political experience and a robust foreign policy background. His Cuban heritage and strong stance against Beijing make him an appealing candidate for voters concerned with global issues and Hispanic voter outreach.

Rubio's presidential run in 2016 elevated his profile, making him a recognizable and seasoned choice. Despite these strengths, his earlier clashes with Trump during the 2016 primaries might still linger in the minds of some Trump loyalists. His career political background might not excite the anti-establishment wing of Trump's base, who dislike swamp figures.

Some hope Rubio’s comparatively moderate image may draw in independents and suburban voters. However, many MAGA voters recall his affiliation with establishment politics, labeling him a RINO. Discussions frequently center on his neo-conservative stances, past failures to strongly back Trump during critical moments, and his immigration stance.

Ben Carson

Ben Carson has a significant base due to his unwavering loyalty to Trump and his moral compass, which resonates with many conservative voters. His background as a neurosurgeon and his calm, thoughtful demeanor make him a credible choice for those seeking stability and ethics in leadership.

However, Carson’s relatively low political profile and lack of forceful public presence have some critics labeling him as a "yes man." This diminishes his appeal among voters who want a more dynamic and assertive figure to energize the ticket. He generally appeals to voters who value integrity and decency.

Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds brings a strong narrative to the table, particularly his life story which could resonate with minority voters. His articulate opposition to Democratic policies makes him a favorite among conservatives looking for younger and more diverse leadership within the GOP.

Donalds' appeal lies in his potential to bridge gaps and bring new demographics into the fold, particularly educated minorities who feel disillusioned by current Democratic leadership. However, his relatively recent emergence on the national stage may work against him, as some question if he has the experience necessary.

Byron Donalds, while relatively less talked about in mainstream narratives, has a strong following among hardcore Trump supporters. His credentials as a staunch conservative and his energetic presence resonate with voters who want a VP who can actively fight for Trump’s policies.

MIG Reports analysis of social media discussions on the influence of Mexican cartels highlight domestic security, immigration, and the 2024 election. Conversations spiked just prior to Independence Day, emphasizing fear of terrorist attacks and broader security anxieties.

Immigration debates criticize DHS border management and polarized views of child trafficking. Discontent with political leaders like Joe Biden and Alejandro Mayorkas is high, with reforms like those proposed by Project 2025 gaining traction. Eroded trust in federal agencies will likely significantly influence voter behavior ahead of the election.

The level of discussion about cartels correlates with American sentiment on the matter. This suggests many Americans are familiar with and hypersensitive to cartel activity. Most people are extremely critical of ongoing issues with child and drug trafficking, violent crime, and the economic impact caused by illegal immigrants who are often brought by cartels.

Immigration Issues

Voter discussions around immigration issues are dominated by false asylum seekers and international human rights issues, and government policies allowing entry and accommodation in the U.S.

Sentiment Trends

There is strong opposition to Biden’s lenient and poorly managed immigration policies. Critics argue illegal immigrants and false asylum seekers are exploiting the system, leading to negative consequences for U.S. citizens. They cite impacts like job losses and increased crime rates.

An increasing number of Americans believe the Biden administration providing accommodations and financial support to illegals is unconscionable. Voters dislike taxpayer funds being used to put illegal immigrants in hotels while American veterans remain homeless.

Many Americans clarify their stance is not “anti-immigration.” They say asylum claims for legitimate refugees should remain possible. However, they also emphasize the current system allowing rampant fraud, waste, and abuse of asylum polices.

Partisan Viewpoints

Conservatives are more likely to criticize immigration policies and express nationalist sentiments. Liberal leaning voters tend to emphasize human rights and legal due process for asylum seekers. However, more Democrats are beginning to acknowledge the border as a serious issue for America.

Undecided and Independent voters seem to be navigating these polarizing issues with a level of caution. Their inclinations in the upcoming general election may be heavily influenced by how Trump versus Democrats discuss the border.

Swing votes likely hinge on promises of comprehensive immigration reforms that balance national security concerns with humanitarian obligations. They also want coherent foreign policies which address international human rights issues without compromising U.S. interests.

Border Security

Heightened tensions at the southern border and ongoing debates about how we treat migrants are also contentious. Most Americans want stricter border controls and many even support mass deportations. Voters often cite crimes committed by illegal immigrants and the strains on public resources.

Progressives and open-borders libertarians oppose an enforcement-centric approach to the border. They often hold a humanitarian perspective, advocating for more compassionate immigration policies and pointing out the contributions immigrants make to society and the economy. However, these viewpoints are growing less common.

Sentiment Trends

Discussions around the upcoming elections are heated, with strong sentiments on both sides. Democrats and Republicans are firmly entrenched in their respective viewpoints, often resorting to hyperbolic language to demonize the opposition.

Rhetoric is particularly intense around Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as both sides use every opportunity to point out failures and potential misconducts, whether factual or perceived.

Partisan Viewpoints

Undecided and Independent voters are disillusioned. They express frustration with the current political race and its candidates. They see partisanship as overshadowing genuine policy debates about the border.

Moderates seem wary of both major parties, citing concerns over corruption, inefficiency, and a lack of real solutions. Their online discourse often hints at a desire for a third option, or at least for the existing candidates to address practical solutions rather than engaging in partisan bickering.

There is also widespread use of memes and exaggerated scenarios to express political frustrations and satire. For example, people often mention ice cream in discussions about President Biden, trivializing his image to highlight his increasingly obvious decline. This mocking discourse is prevalent with younger demographics who use humor to cope with political disillusionment.

Drug and Human Trafficking

Americans are increasingly worried about the fentanyl crisis, child trafficking, the economic turmoil caused by cartel activity. Many people criticize political figures and the media for deflection attention away from the drug crisis and horrific trafficking stories.

Sentiment Trends

Voters express deep concern about America’s fentanyl crisis, with many attributing the problem to an alleged partnership between Chinese entities and Mexican cartels. They also suggest this nefarious union is facilitated by Democratic open border policies.

Many people discuss the issue as an epidemic responsible for untold deaths, touching nearly all Americans in some capacity. This severe problem deepens public anxiety about cartel activity across the southern border.

Economic struggles, particularly inflation, persist as a critical discussion point. Many voice frustrations over rising fuel prices, increased living costs, and stagnant wages. These economic anxieties are amplified by concerns over rising crime, which voters often attribute to illegal immigrant offenders.

The topic of human trafficking, particularly child trafficking, invokes strong emotional responses across the demographic spectrum. It is often brought up with discussions of crime and border security. People view trafficking as a rampant underground industry that profits from vulnerable populations. The increase in human trafficking statistics is frequently cited as evidence of governance failures, often linked to broader criticisms of the Biden administration.

Partisan Viewpoints

Demographic analysis shows older, more conservative voters are most vocal about border security and crime. They emphasize a return to more stringent immigration policies. Younger voters and liberal-leaning demographics, while also concerned about these issues, tend to focus more on systemic reforms rather than punitive measures.

The division extends to discussions about leadership, with many expressing nostalgia for Trump-era border policies.

Undecided and Independent voters appear to be swayed by trafficking and cartel narratives. Their inclinations are shaped by who they believe offers the most comprehensive solutions to these urgent issues. Such voters currently exhibit a blend of apprehension and skepticism regarding both major political parties.

Americans are unified in their negativity toward Mexican cartels and, to a lesser extent, border security. But disillusionment with both political parties indicates a fluid election landscape with potential for significant shifts as November draws nearer. At this stage, it seems likely voters will respond to candidate stances on border control, economic recovery plans, and concrete actions against human trafficking.

American reactions to Donald Trump's 2024 abortion platform reveal a complex and layered dynamic as Republicans try to balance closely held beliefs with pragmatic election strategy. Trump’s recent positioning seeks to soften the GOP stance, emphasizing a return to states’ rights over the federal imposition of a nationwide ban.

In prior years when Republicans vocally and strictly opposed all forms of abortion, Democrats typically beat them on the issue. Now, Trump’s GOP pivot has caused discussion on both sides as Democrats accuse Republicans of hypocrisy and Republicans grapple with conviction.

Some moderate Republicans and Independents see Trump's actions as a pragmatic shift necessary to appeal to a more extensive base. They hope it can mitigate the damage done to the GOP's image post-Roe.

However, intensely pro-life or religious conservatives feel frustrated. Many in this group believe in a moral duty which transcends political strategy. They tend to criticize Trump for compromising what is, to them, a non-negotiable issue.

Liberals Accuse the GOP of Waffling

Many progressive and liberal voices express disapproval of Trump's shift. They see it as an opportunistic and overly populist move. They accuse him of betraying fundamental pro-life principles, viewing him as hypocritical.

Democrats and pro-choice voters especially disapprove after Trump’s instrumental role in overturning Roe v. Wade. They frame our post-Dobbs world as Trump's fault and an unforgivable act that should not gain him swing votes. They claim his current moderation is a facade.

Some on the left also attempt to paint Trump and the GOP as inconsistent and willing to flip on core issues for political gain. They argue the change is merely window dressing, but the underlying fundamentalist conservative agenda is dangerous and authoritarian.

There are some who argue the focus on opposing late-term abortion is disingenuous because Democrats don’t even support late-term abortion.

Conservatives are Torn on Principles

Pro-life Americans appear split on what they believe versus winning elections. Some appreciate Trump's role in appointing Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, fulfilling a long-standing conservative goal. They argue the former president deserves continued support for his role in returning the issue to the state.

However, frustration exists among those who feel abandoned by the GOP's reluctance to pursue a more stringent stance on abortion. They view the pro-life cause as above politics—an issue which should not be compromised. This discontent may impact their willingness to vote for Republicans they view as weak on abortion.

Those who view themselves as pragmatic conservatives approve of a more nuanced approach to abortion. They recognize that stringent anti-abortion laws might alienate moderate voters, crucial for a broader GOP victory. Many also point out the need to prioritize states' rights and caution against federal overreach.

A certain group of conservatives perceive the refined focus on late-term abortion as a more palatable approach to national views. They hope it will garner wider support in a country with diverse views on abortion. Many in this group personally hold more vigorous pro-life views, however they assert that winning elections is necessary to move the needle.

Swing State Voters Remain Split

Reactions also seem split geographically. Voters in more liberal or swing states are often more open to Trump’s revised platform. Many of them view it as a necessary step to avoid alienating essential voter groups.

In swing states, perceptions about the authenticity of Trump’s stance are heavily influenced by broader views on MAGA and the Republican Party. There are some who assert that Trump himself never seemed to hold particularly pro-life viewpoints. They argue his platform aligns with his true beliefs.

Others in swing states feel a populist platform will not be enough to win voters to disapprove of the rest of Trump’s MAGA agenda.

• MIG Reports data shows swing state sentiment regarding abortion track similarly to national sentiment.
• Sentiment toward Trump and Biden also tend to move similarly among their respective supporters. However, Trump has seen a slight decrease in sentiment in recent days while Biden received a slight bump.

Will Abortion be Overshadowed in the Election?

While abortion continues to evoke strong reactions, its impact on the 2024 election depends on how varying issues come to prominence between now and November. Biden's age and cognitive abilities are currently dominating political discourse.

Questions about Biden's ability to serve effectively are currently influencing voter sentiment more strongly than abortion. Economic conditions are also a dominant concern for many voters, making the economy a central battleground.

Issues like inflation, job security, and economic resilience often take precedence, especially when Americans hear news that reaches crisis levels. The border is another issue influencing voters heavily in 2024.

It remains to be seen how strongly voters feel about abortion and whether Trump’s stance will significantly impact support loss or gain in November amid myriad other pressing issues.