Wisconsin: Anti-Establishment Voters May Elect Hovde
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Key Takeaways
- Wisconsin's economy and frustration with establishment figures is pushing voters to the right of Democrat Senate incumbent Tammy Baldwin.
- People are frustrated with economic challenges, blaming long-time politicians like Baldwin for policies that seem disconnected from the needs of ordinary people.
- Voters are increasingly drawn to candidates like Eric Hovde, who they believe can bring fresh ideas and an anti-establishment approach.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
5,500
Geographical Breakdown
Wisconsin
Time Period
7 Days
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
Voters commenting on the Senate race in Wisconsin between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and a soon-decided Republican challenger are mostly discussing the economy and establishment politics.
Republican challenger Eric Hovde is the favorite to win the GOP Senate primary on Aug. 13. With the economy and immigration two of the top voter issues, MIG Reports data indicates Hovde leads Baldwin with 52% support to Baldwin’s 48% as of Aug. 9.
Against this backdrop, conversations among Wisconsin voters focus on:
- The impact of illegal immigration on the economy
- Workers whose jobs are being threatened by competition from migrants
- Jobs threatened by changes in certain industries
- Anti-establishment sentiments among Wisconsinites
Establishment Workhorse vs Outsider
Baldwin's political career started in 1986 when she was 24. She served six consecutive terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, prior to her Senate election win in 2012. Her political career has been almost as long as President Joe Biden’s, roiling the growing number of anti-establishment voters.
Baldwin is strongly aligned with progressive values and the Biden-Harris administration, voting with them 95.5% of the time. This is a prominent theme generating criticism from those who are unhappy with national politics.
Critics link her to social and economic woes like:
- Rising costs from inflation
- Homelessness
- The decline of American cities
- Concerns about international conflicts
- Rampant illegal immigration
- Drug addiction and deaths
Voters also criticize her for being disconnected from her constituents. They see her lifestyle and financial interests as an indication she favors the wealthy over the working-class. Wisconsin’s economic situation is another focal point, with mixed opinions on Baldwin’s role in recent manufacturing gains and broader economic trends.
In contrast, Eric Hovde is seen as a political outsider bringing "fresh perspective" and "new ideas." He appeals to voters who are disillusioned with traditional politics. Many view Hovde's lack of establishment ties as an advantage. They say it allows him to challenge the status quo and offer innovative solutions.
Hovde's anti-establishment stance, emphasizing independence, anti-corruption, and reform, resonates with many Wisconsinites. They want to disrupt political cronyism and inefficiency, looking to Hovde for greater transparency and accountability.
Economic Pain for Wisconsinites
Inflation is a prominent topic as voters criticize government spending and economic policies. Wisconsinites express concerns about the rising cost of living, specifically citing high prices for essentials such as gas and groceries. Some blame the Biden-Harris administration for uncontrolled spending that exacerbates inflation. Others argue inflation is a global issue not solely impacted by domestic policies.
Sentiment toward Eric Hovde leans positive on the economy. Conversations are growing about his passion for building homes for families and children in need. Many see this as positive and relatable for those facing economic hardship. There is some skepticism of Hovde’s background in finance, though many see it as a positive. They appreciate his return to Wisconsin despite living an affluent life in southern California.
Voters also talk about taxes, debating the implications of tax cuts and increases. More conservative voters advocate for tax cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce financial strain on families. Left leaning voters call for higher taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to address fiscal deficits and income inequality.
Sentiment Trends and Voter Impact
On inflation and tax evasion scandals, sentiment is extremely negative. People are frustrated with current economic policies and political figures they view as corrupt. This coincides with wider anti-establishment sentiment in Wisconsin. Voters want tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal conservatism to combat economic challenges.
Undecided and moderate voters seem particularly influenced by discussions about practical economic impacts. Concerns about day-to-day expenses, fairness in taxation, and financial transparency are central to their decision-making process. These voters display a tendency to seek balanced and pragmatic solutions, rather than extreme partisan positions.
Inflation and taxes have sustained voter attention over time as fundamental concerns. Temporary spikes in discussion often occur around specific events or revelations, such as scandals involving financial misconduct by candidates. However, these spikes tend to increase a consistently high discussion volume.
State of GDP
In 2024, Wisconsin's manufacturing sector remains the largest contributor to GDP, generating $55.19 billion, but is experiencing a decline of 1.3%. The real estate and rental and leasing sectors follow, contributing $38.39 billion with minimal growth of 0.2%. Healthcare and social assistance is grew 1.6%, contributing $32.02 billion, reflecting increased demand for healthcare services.
High-growth sectors include:
- Professional, scientific, and technical services: 6.3% growth rate
- Arts, entertainment, and recreation: 11.3% growth rate, likely due to a post-COVID rebound
Challenges are evident in sectors like finance and insurance. These face a significant decline of 1.7%, potentially due to regulatory changes or market saturation. Wholesale trade is also experiencing a decline of 1.0%, likely influenced by broader economic trends impacting supply chains.
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Employment Sector Trends
The employment landscape in Wisconsin is diverse, with healthcare and social assistance employing 450,155 people, modest 0.2% growth. Manufacturing employs 446,288 people but is experiencing a slight decline of 0.3%. Retail trade, with 392,305 employees, is growing by 0.9%.
Key growth sectors include:
Administration, Business Support, and Waste Management Services:
- Employs 215,582 people
- Significant growth of 2.9%
Transportation and Warehousing:
- Employs 195,575 people
- Growth of 2.3%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services:
- Employs 172,697 people
- Growth of 2.3%
Information:
- Fastest-growing sector at 4.0%
- Employs 93,381 people
Sectors like accommodation and food services (239,268 employees) and construction (156,524 employees) are seeing slight declines. The finance and insurance sector is also down by 0.4%, despite employing 171,785 workers. Other services (except public administration) and wholesale trade show minimal changes, with growth rates of -0.6% and 0.6%, respectively.
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Prioritizing Party Over Posterity
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Wisconsin voters are also concerned about family issues like education. They discuss the need for increased funding and better resources for schools, saying this is essential for high-quality education. However, the public is divided on the best way to achieve these goals.
Eric Hovde has approval from those supporting local control and accountability. His outsider status and focus on reform resonates with voters who believe fresh ideas and local leadership are crucial to addressing education challenges.
Hovde's approach contrasts sharply with Tammy Baldwin’s, whose support for COVID lockdowns draws criticism. People say she approved of destroying social cohesion, the economy, and children's education. Her alignment with broader government intervention is criticized by those who feel these measures exacerbate existing problems.
Lockdowns Damaged Education
Many criticize Baldwin and other pro-lockdown politicians for dealing a significant blow to education. They point out COVID restrictions negatively impacted academic proficiency among Wisconsin students. There were significant declines in both English Language Arts (ELA) and Math.
Pre-COVID proficiency levels in ELA and Math were 42.4% and 43.8%, respectively, in 2018.These figures dropped sharply post-2020, hitting a low of 33.7% for ELA and 33.6% for Math in 2021.
Although proficiency partially recovered by 2023, reaching 39.2% in ELA and 41.1% in Math, these levels remain below pre-COVID standards. Lockdowns exacerbated existing achievement gaps related to race and socioeconomic status. This created an urgent need for targeted interventions to support recovery and close these disparities.
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