As the 2024 election approaches, the Republican National Committee (RNC) is making a concerted effort to ensure election integrity, recruiting more than 200,000 volunteers and 5,000 attorneys. These actions have sparked significant discussion across social media, with voters responding to grassroots support mobilization and the RNC’s legal efforts. This analysis explores the range of reactions, breaking down public sentiment, enthusiasm, and deeper trends in voter behavior.

Key Findings

• 65-75% of discussions support the RNC’s efforts, emphasizing empowerment and the need for election integrity.
• 15-25% express skepticism, particularly about the RNC’s true intentions, suspecting voter suppression tactics.
• 5-15% remain indifferent or neutral, questioning the effectiveness of the efforts.
• 60-70% show heightened enthusiasm, particularly older voters, conservatives, and rural populations.
• 55-65% highlight the RNC’s potential to sway undecided voters in key battleground states.

Sentiment Breakdown

The dominant sentiment in response to the RNC’s recruitment is positive, at least 65% of Americans express support. Many conservative voters, especially in rural areas and older demographics, feel empowered by these efforts and view them as critical to protecting election integrity.

A significant portion of younger conservatives also responds positively, with around 40% citing transparency and the need to address potential electoral injustices. Conservative minorities, including black conservatives, resonate with this narrative, making up about 30% of the positive reactions.

However, there is also a significant degree of skepticism. Around 20% express concerns that the RNC’s recruitment drive may be a guise for voter suppression tactics, particularly targeting marginalized communities. Critics say the resources allocated to these efforts might be better spent addressing more immediate electoral concerns, with some describing the initiative as a power retention strategy rather than a genuine attempt to ensure fair elections.

Around 15% are neutral or indifferent. These users acknowledge the RNC’s efforts but express doubt about their effectiveness or question whether such initiatives will substantially influence their voting behavior.

Enthusiasm and Turnout Trends

The RNC’s recruitment drive has energized the GOP base, particularly in rural areas. These voters view election integrity as a pressing issue and 65% voice a sense of urgency and enthusiasm. They suggest the initiative is likely to lead to increased voter turnout, especially from groups that already feel strongly about preserving electoral fairness.

Many express confidence that the RNC’s efforts will boost turnout in key swing states. Where voters distrust the process. Around 60% believe these recruitment efforts could influence undecided voters and help Republicans gain ground in traditionally blue areas. Around 55% view this as an opportunity to counter Democratic election narratives, further driving enthusiasm among conservative voters.

Deeper Trends and Voter Behavior

The RNC’s recruitment campaign taps into deeper narratives of empowerment, institutional distrust, and working-class disillusionment. Many are excited for grassroots mobilization, expressing pride in taking an active role in the electoral process.

This narrative may signal a shift in voter engagement, with a growing focus on local participation and community-driven activism.

The vice-presidential debate on CBS between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz sparked partisan discussion, memes, and potentially moved certain voter sentiments. Even many Democrats and mainstream media outlets are declaring Vance the decisive victor.

One of the most discussed moments of the debate was Tim Walz’s inability to clearly explain his misrepresentation about being in China on the day of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

Worst moment of the night for Walz: stumbling through an explanation of why he lied about being in China during the Tiananmen Square massacre.

One of the most awkward debate moments of my lifetime. pic.twitter.com/L6NBRAIl3F

— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 2, 2024

Vance’s Decisive Victory

Most voters and media figures agree that J.D. Vance outperformed Tim Walz during the debate. This includes Washington Post polling confirming swing state voters consider Vance the winner—14 to 8. Mainstream media figures like Geraldo Rivera, Jake Tapper, and Chris Cuomo all conceded Vance’s victory.

Media reactions after the JD Vance vs. Tim Walz debate.

Geraldo Rivera: JD Vance won the debate.

NBC: Does Tim Walz have a problem with the truth?

Chris Cuomo: JD Vance fact-checked the moderators and he was right.

CNN's John King: Vance carried the important issues.

CNN's… pic.twitter.com/5rICMSivUC

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024

Vance's assertiveness and command over key issues like immigration, law and order, and the economy helped him establish a dominant presence on stage. His assertiveness without becoming combative or insulting appeals particularly to voters in swing states and conservatives who cringe at Trump’s bombastic style.

Post-Debate Sentiment

MIG Reports data shows:

• Vance’s support increased to 52% (+2)
• Walz’s support decreased to 48% (-2)

This uptick in Vance's favor post-debate indicates his performance not only solidified his base but may help sway some undecided and Independent voters. While Walz remained steady among his core supporters, the drop in his overall numbers shows a lack of confidence in his performance.

• National approval for Vance moved from 44% on Friday to 49% post-debate.
• Walz’s approval moved from 47% on Friday to 46% post-debate.
• Both candidates generated significant discussion volume jumping from less than 10,000 mentions on Friday to 78,122 of Walz post-debate and 91,624 of Vance.

Voter Sentiment Breakdown

Republican Base

Vance’s explicit loyalty to Donald Trump and his framing of issues like immigration played well with the GOP base. His confidence and casual but precise take-down of Walz and moderator questions created a surge of praise and memes. MAGA voters see Vance as a strong voice that will carry forward Trump-era policies.

Some conservatives, however, expressed displeasure with Vance’s abortion comments, voicing frustrations that he is too moderate on pro-life issues. Others, however, say Vance had Walz on his back foot regarding abortion—an issue Democrats tend to win.

Democratic Base

Walz’s focus on reproductive rights and healthcare continues to please the Democratic base. They appreciated his defense of progressive values and insistence on being pro-woman.

However, many Democrats understood that his demeanor was less confident, overwhelmed, and less impressive than Vance’s. Many pivoted away from Walz’s performance to suggest that VP debates and VP performance in general is less important than presidential conduct.

Independent Voters

As usual, Independents are divided. Some appreciated Vance’s confident and composed demeanor, but others were skeptical of his evasive responses. They particularly disliked his responses to questions about Trump and healthcare.

Still, Vance’s unflappable presence led to focus group, polling, and sentiment data showing most Americans conclude Vance won. Vance’s performance may also appeal to certain Independents looking for stability and leadership in uncertain times.

Key Issues During the Debate

Among the issues discussed at the debate, immigration and abortion stand out.

MIG Reports analysis shows:

• Sentiment toward Vance in the 24 hours post-debate reached 44% while Walz stood at 43%.
• Immigration sentiment was 43% for Vance and 44% for Walz.
• China sentiment was 48% for Vance and 43% for Walz.
• Sentiment on the economy was 46% for both candidates.

Immigration

Vance's portrayal of the current immigration system as chaotic and harmful to the American economy resonates deeply with voters concerned about border security. This issue is particularly salient in swing states like Arizona and Florida, where border policy is a top voter concern. However, many critics took issue with Vance firing back at moderators who attempted to fact check his statements about Haitian migrants in Ohio.

JD Vance refuses to accept the fake fact check and calls out the moderators on it so they shut his mic. Incredible pic.twitter.com/yuQ0QRfYsz

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 2, 2024

Election Integrity

Vance’s response on the legitimacy of the 2020 election results divided voters along partisan lines. While it cemented his standing with Trump’s base, most other voters disliked his discussion of the 2020 election and January 6. It raised concerns among swing voters and Independents about his commitment to democratic processes.

Abortion

Although abortion is a strong issue for Democrats, it was likely one of the most divisive topics during the debate. Vance appealed to some moderates with his softer language on abortion compared to strict pro-life advocates, angering some conservatives.

However, Vance also cornered Walz on the issue of late-term abortion when Walz failed to answer a direct question about the law he signed in Minnesota. This rare maneuver by a Republican led some to feel Walz lost ground for Democrats on their top issue.

FACT: Tim Walz signed a law that allowed babies to be left to die if they survive an abortion.

Babies who are BORN ALIVE. pic.twitter.com/brmlbohKtK

— Students for Life of America | Pro-Life Gen (@StudentsforLife) October 2, 2024

Climate Change

Democrats responded positively to Walz’s position on climate change but many on the right criticized the moderators for making a question about the devastation of Hurricane Helene about climate change.

While climate change was the topic of the second question in the debate, for voters, this issue remains secondary to economic and immigration concerns.

Election Impact

J.D. Vance's victory in the vice-presidential debate strengthens his position in the Republican party as a strong leader and effective communicator. His ability to maintain support from the GOP base while reaching out to Independents and undecideds may be important in swing states.

Meanwhile, Walz and Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket face the challenge of coming across as relatable and confident to voters. Many on both sides of the aisle agree that Vance won but couch their observation in uncertainty about how much the victory can impact the election amid many other major events like potential war in the Middle East, Hurricane Helene aftermath, the dock worker strike, and critical border issues.

Both Trump and Harris are battling to secure votes from traditionally Democratic voters like minority groups and working-class Americans. These groups have reliably leaned left in the past, but recent trends suggest a growing disillusionment with Democratic leadership. This opens the door for Donald Trump to potentially make gains among voters who are typically out of reach for Republicans.

🚨Holy sht!

Even CNN is being forced to tell the American people how BAD Kamala’s polling is.

The polls have NEVER been this bad for a Democrat running against Trump.
She’s even hemorrhaging minorities.

Americans see the truth, 4 years under Kamala would WRECK our country…! pic.twitter.com/7YpSGeBVqr

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) September 24, 2024

Support

MIG Reports data suggests Trump has an approximate:

• 10-20% support among black voters.
• 20-30% support among Hispanic voters.
• 10-20% support among Asian-American voters.

While these numbers are not overwhelming, they suggest a potential increase compared to previous Republican candidates. Trump's economic message resonates with those who feel the pinch of rising inflation and stagnant wages.

#New General election poll - Hispanic voters

🔴 Trump 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris 44%

Quinnipiac #B - LV - 9/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 25, 2024

Minority Voters Focus on Domestic Issues

MIG Reports data from voter conversations shows minority groups are overwhelmingly focused on domestic issues. Analysis suggests the economy, healthcare, and immigration dominate minority voter concerns. This focus is particularly sharp given rising costs of living, housing shortages, and ongoing healthcare debates.

Top Concerns for Minority Voters

• Economic Concerns: Rising grocery and housing prices are central issues, with many blaming Democratic policies. Minority voters often disproportionately feel economic strain and want solutions that directly impact their lives.
• Immigration and Border Security: Immigration is both practical and symbolic for minority groups. Hispanic voters often support Trump's tough immigration stance—particularly legal immigrants whose jobs are threatened by an open border.
• Healthcare and Reproductive Rights: Healthcare is a focus, especially abortion. Some minority groups are split between supporting Trump's pro-life platform and fearing his policies threaten women’s healthcare.
• Distrust of Government: Among minorities, there is deep skepticism toward government institutions and their competence. There is frustration with political leaders and agencies, which are often viewed as biased or manipulated.

Like all voters, minority groups prioritize issues they believe affect them immediately and directly. However, they often don’t focus on foreign conflicts or geopolitical strategy, instead preferring tangible solutions to domestic problems.

Contrast with Overall Voter Priorities

There is a notable difference in the top issues among minority voters compared with high priorities among all voters. National security and foreign conflicts like Ukraine and Israel are top concerns for the broader electorate, but these issues do not crack the top five among minorities.

Comparison of Top Issues

Minority Views of Trump

Historically, minority voters have been a difficult demographic for Republican candidates to attract. However, Donald Trump may have an opportunity to capture some degree of support within these communities.

Notions that Trump "helped all Americans" economically before COVID resonates with segments of black and Hispanic voters. Trump's stance on job creation and tax cuts, while controversial, appeals to those who see his policies as protecting American jobs. This is particularly true in lower-income communities.

Voters Don't Trust the Polls

Another dimension across all voter groups is skepticism of polls and the political establishment. Many believe polls cited by the media are biased or manipulated to fit a certain narrative. This distrust further complicates voter outreach efforts as many point to previous election cycles where Trump outperformed his poll numbers.

In the context of minority voters, skepticism extends to both parties but particularly harms Democrats who are seen as part of the political establishment.

Sentiment Toward Polls Among Minority Voters

• 42% express skepticism toward poll numbers.
• 21% believe polls are manipulated or biased.
• 55% show negative sentiment toward polls.

This disillusionment erodes the credibility of pollsters but also influences how voters view politicians. The Democratic Party, as the current party in power, bears the brunt of this skepticism. Trump, often viewed as a political outsider, tends to benefit from positioning himself as fighting against establishment mechanisms.

Potential to Capitalize on Anti-Establishment Sentiments

If Trump continues to make inroads with minority voters, especially in key battleground states, he could wrest important voters from Kamala Harris. While minority support for Trump remains relatively modest compared to the overall electorate, even a slight increase in black, Hispanic, or Asian-American support could prove decisive.

Analysis suggests by gaining just 5% more of the Hispanic vote in states like Florida, Nevada, or Arizona, Trump could tilt the balance in his favor. Similarly, a 3-5% increase in black voter turnout for Trump in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania could be enough to counter Democratic margins in urban areas.

However, extreme partisan divides and distrust in polling also causes some to suggest Republicans consistently remain too hopeful for gaining minority votes. This group holds that GOP ceilings for these important voters continue, even in 2024.

Every single election cycle, Republicans confidently predict that a wave of minority support for the GOP is right around the corner.

But it never seems to materialize.

Based on the past 50 years, the GOP's ceiling with minority voters seems to be:

Blacks: 15%
Hispanics: 40% https://t.co/k3Puj7NKZr pic.twitter.com/vJQqxd32Fs

— Nate Hochman (@njhochman) March 5, 2024

In the last several weeks, presidential endorsements have been playing a role in shaping voter sentiment and indicating the overall political mood. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are facing the political repercussions—positive and negative—of high-profile endorsements or lack of endorsements.

National sentiment toward Trump continues to widen the gap between candidates with 56% support for Trump—a stunning 13% lead over Harris—compared to only a 5% advantage two weeks ago.

Trump Endorsements

Donald Trump has secured endorsements highlighting his conservative and populist support, increasing the contrast between him and establishment Republicans.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Trump surprised some but shows Trump's appeal to populist and anti-establishment voters.
• Fraternal Order of Police endorsing Trump carries significant weight with law-and-order conservatives and strengthens his position as a rule of law candidate.
• Elon Musk endorsing Trump adds a layer of tech and pop culture credibility, furthering his anti-establishment image.

Harris Endorsements

Kamala Harris has had a rocky road with endorsements, particularly when it comes to working-class Americans versus celebrities and elites.

• The Teamsters Union refusing to endorse Harris is perhaps one the most notable instances. Historically, Teamsters always support Democratic candidates, but this year have refused to officially support Harris.
• Celebrities like Taylor Swift, Oprah, and Billie Eilish endorsing Harris draws excitement in her base but criticism from anti-establishment and anti-elite voters.
• The IRS Union also endorsed Harris, drawing sharp criticism from conservatives and middle-income Americans who are frustrated with the economy and taxes.
• Other establishment entities like National Security Leaders for America and those considered RINOs like Dick Cheney and 200 former GOP aides draws criticism from anti-establishment voters.

In the last two weeks, Harris has averaged higher sentiment in voter conversations about political endorsements with 48% to Trump’s 47%. But in the last three days, Trump has overtaken Harris by up to three points.

Trouble for Democrats

Unions

Recent Teamsters polling showed 58.5% of their members support Trump, with only 32.5% backing Harris. This is a significant advantage for Trump who trailed Biden by 8% just a few months ago. These cultural and political shifts signal working-class ire against Harris, raising questions about her ability to connect with traditionally Democratic blue-collar voters.

TEAMSTERS RELEASE PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT POLLING DATA

“For the past year, the Teamsters Union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic, and transparent Presidential endorsement process in the history of our 121-year-old organization—and today we are delivering on… pic.twitter.com/CnFNN9uosx

— Teamsters (@Teamsters) September 18, 2024

Many union workers enthusiastically express their support for Trump, which so far seems to be playing out in early voting and swing state support. This includes nearly 60% of Teamsters, 70% of Steamfitters Local 638, and 65-70% of UAW members.

YESTERDAY: Nearly 60% of @Teamsters are voting for President Trump.

TODAY: 70% of Steamfitters Local 638 are voting for President Trump.

ALSO TODAY: It’s estimated 65-70% of UAW members are voting for President Trump.

Hardworking Americans know President Trump HAS THEIR BACK. pic.twitter.com/fFOrRs9aXd

— Byron Donalds (@ByronDonalds) September 19, 2024

Some are interpreting the Teamsters’ decision not to endorse as a sign of low confidence in Harris's willingness to support working-class Americans. Others says it’s a result of Harris refusing to let the union's president speak at the DNC.

The IRS

Harris’s IRS endorsement may also hurt more than help her with the economy remaining a top issue for voters across the country. During a recent campaign rally, Trump mocked Harris, saying he’d “rather not have that endorsement.”

Donald Trump on Kamala Harris getting the endorsement of IRS agents:

“I would rather not have that endorsement.”🤣

pic.twitter.com/NK5eLdkeKB

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 24, 2024

Voters express outrage and concern about the potential implications of the IRS endorsement. Critics say it is a clear example of the government's overreach and politicized federal agencies. They say Harris's support for the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided the IRS with an additional $80 billion and 87,000 new agents, is a threat to individual liberties.

Law Enforcement

Some are also saying Harris’s backing from Police Leaders for Community Safety does nothing since the organization was only founded in March of 2024. This sudden emergence of alleged law enforcement support is dubious to many who point out the vague and nonspecific nature of endorsement announcements on the official Harris campaign X account.

There is particular criticism from those who decry crime rates and the rule of law under the Biden-Harris administration. This group often suggests attempts to manufacture law enforcement support is a cynical ploy by the Harris campaign to appeal to moderates and conservatives.

The single most astroturfed Presidential campaign in modern U.S. history.

The stunning endorsement that “normally backs Trump?”

They are referring to the Police Leaders for Community Safety, which was founded in March of THIS YEAR.

It’s a fake group. pic.twitter.com/g3vZfpKFAR

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 24, 2024

Are There Votes Up for Grabs?

The impact of endorsements on voter groups remains opaque, though likely concentrating support among those who already lean to one side or the other. The critical question for many is whether certain endorsements can sway critical battleground and moderate voters. MIG Reports data from voter conversations suggests:

• 20% of Democratic voters are likely swayed positively by Harris endorsements, especially from celebrities like Oprah and Taylor Swift.
• 30% of Republican voters respond positively to Trump’s endorsements, especially from RFK Jr. and the Fraternal Order of Police.
• Around 10-15% of undecided voters may move toward Harris and potentially 5-10% to Trump—although these percentages are projections with low certainty.

The Whole Picture of Endorsements

Endorsements serve as a barometer for campaign momentum—and Trump currently seems have a stronger position. His endorsements from law enforcement, tech moguls, and even former Democrats like RFK Jr. highlight his ability to appeal to a broad range of voter groups. Furthermore, his ability to draw working-class support away from traditional Democratic strongholds like the Teamsters is particularly telling.

Harris, meanwhile, is struggling to maintain enthusiasm among key demographics. While celebrity endorsements may energize certain liberal and youth segments, the lack of union support and the controversial IRS endorsement suggest her campaign faces challenges among working-class and middle-income voters. Despite Joe Biden’s low favorability prior to dropping out of the race, enthusiasm for Harris seems to be largely driven by the media, elites, and political establishment figures rather than critical moderate voting groups in swing states, which she would require to win.

MIG Reports data shows which messaging points from the Trump campaign resonate most with Independent and crossover who support him. Several key factors increase voter enthusiasm among potentially new Republican voters.

Trump’s campaign effectively taps into urgent voter concerns about economic security, border control, law and order, and anti-establishment sentiments. These issues are driving engagement and loyalty among swing voter groups.

Border Security and Immigration

The border is consistently a top issue among Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats. Its prominence in American discourse is effectively galvanizing Independent and swing voters. Trump's hardline stance on securing the U.S.-Mexico border, enforcing immigration laws, and building a wall deeply resonates with voters who prioritize national security and economic stability.

Many moderate voters view Trump as the only candidate who addresses their concerns about the negative impact of illegal immigration and their desperation for strict border control. This issue consistently drives enthusiasm, with many expressing urgency for immigration reform and a return to Trump-era policies.

Economic Growth and Populism

Another pillar of Trump's moderate appeal is the economy. Voters respond positively to his policies aimed at reducing taxes, deregulating industries, and creating jobs through an "America First" economic agenda. Independent and crossover voters who feel left behind by globalization see Trump's protectionist trade policies and focus on revitalizing American industries as solutions to their economic frustrations.

Trump's specific proposals, such as eliminating taxes on overtime pay, tips, and Social Security benefits, are particularly well-received, fueling optimism that these changes will directly improve their financial situations. This economic populism appeals to voters who believe Trump will prioritize their financial well-being over corporate or elite interests.

Healthcare affordability and accessibility are also critical concerns among Independent and crossover voters. Many express frustration with the rising cost of healthcare and limited access to affordable insurance. They link costs to broader economic challenges.

Voters respond positively to proposals aimed at reducing healthcare costs and increasing access to affordable care, viewing these policies as essential components of economic stability and middle-class support .

Law and Order

There is growing Trump enthusiasm among those concerned with rising crime and public safety. His strong stance on curbing crime and supporting law enforcement appeals to voters who feel uneasy about rampant crime in Democrat-run regions.

Americans are disillusioned with Biden-Harris policies for public safety. Trump's emphasis on restoring order connects with voters who want leadership motivated to protect American communities and uphold traditional values.

Anti-Establishment

A growing segment of anti-establishment voters are also moving to support Trump along with figures like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard. These voters feel disconnected from the political system and view Trump as standing in opposition to the corporate and political elite.

Many voters gravitate toward Trump’s message of being an outsider who challenges systems and institutions. This position makes anti-establishment voters feel their frustrations with government corruption and media bias are heard. The idea of "draining the swamp" remains a potent rallying cry, with many seeing Trump as uniquely positioned to shake up the establishment and introduce real change in Washington.

National Sovereignty and “America First”

Trump's opposition to globalism, international institutions, and trade deals resonates with voters concerned about the loss of American jobs and the erosion of national identity. His patriotic messaging, which emphasizes American exceptionalism, strikes a chord with voters who are anxious about the future of the country and want a leader who prioritizes American interests.

Support for Military and Veterans

The Biden-Harris administration’s repeated disregard for veterans and Gold Star families infuriates certain moderate voters who support the military. Enthusiasm is strong among Independent voters—particularly those who feel slighted and neglected by Democrats. Trump's promises to increase military spending and improve veterans' benefits play well with voters who prioritize national defense and view veterans as deserving more robust support.

The stark division between partisan narratives and trust in the media has grown clearer in recent weeks. Previous MIG Reports analysis showed Democrats remain one of the few groups which consistently trust mainstream media.

With 64.8% of all voters expressing strong distrust toward mainstream media, the 24.9% who say they do have trust is largely composed of Democrats. This is consistent with 2023 Gallup data showing:

• 11% of Republicans trust media
• 29% of Independents trust media
• 58% of Democrats trust media

This divergence raises significant questions about how media narratives, especially those with a partisan slant, can shape voter opinion and electoral outcomes. Media narratives, which many Americans believe are biased toward Democratic viewpoints, disproportionately influence voters who still trust these outlets.

Whether Democrats continue to trust media narratives because of confirmation bias, or those who trust media lean Democratic because they are influenced by narratives is unclear. However, the correlation of Democrats trusting the media and media promoting Democratic narratives remains.

Through selective framing, coverage time, and emphasis, the media plays an active role in shaping political perspectives, often long after stories have been debunked or corrected. MIG Reports analysis shows three recent examples of media narratives shaping Democratic voter opinions on key political issues.

Hook Line and Sinker

Migrants Eating Pets in Ohio

Following the presidential debate, rumors of Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, dominated media coverage. Mainstream media, including ABC debate moderators who fact-checked Trump, largely positioned the story as unfounded or even fabricated.

Despite copious local resident allegations, certain police reports documenting missing pets, and the Springfield city manager acknowledging claims of pets being eaten, many Democratic voters still align with media narratives critical of the story and Republicans.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• Nearly 53 hours covering the Springfield city manager’s denial in the three days following the debate.
• Only 9.5 hours covering allegations of migrants eating cats.

There is a slight increase in mentions of the Springfield city manager after footage emerged from March of 2024 in which he acknowledged resident claims. However, these media mentions only total six hours compared to 23 hours the day after David Muir’s fact check against Trump during the debate.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 80-90% Democrats still say pet consumption is unproven.
• 10-20% Democrats admit pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.
• 10-20% Republicans still say pet consumption is unproven.
• 80-90% Republicans believe pet consumption is legitimate or indicative of larger immigration issues.

The way media outlets frame the story—blaming Trump for “unproven allegations”—illustrates how media impacts perceptions. Democrats largely still dismiss the story as rumor, aligning with media talking points. Republicans, who largely distrust mainstream media, instead view the story—regardless of whether the pet consumption allegations are true—as an indictment of the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy.

The Danger of Bomb Threats

Following the media frenzy over pets in Ohio, narratives turned to bomb threats in Springfield. The media framed multiple bomb threats as a result of “dangerous” and “xenophobic” rhetoric by Trump and Republicans.

A viral clip of CNN’s Dana Bash shows her directly blaming J.D. Vance for drawing violence to Ohio through his allegedly divisive comments.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• 175 hours covering bomb threats in the last five days.
• 17 hours clarifying threats as a hoax after DeWine’s announcement.

Following Ohio Governor Mike DeWine’s announcement that the bomb threats were a hoax committed by foreign actors, media coverage continued to mention bomb threats for more than 100 hours while only mentioning them as a hoax for 17.3 total hours and a mere 17 minutes two days after the revelation.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 60% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as real.
• 20% of Democrats are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.
• There is no quantifiable number of Republicans discussing the bomb threats as real, but 31% express concern about community safety.
• 70% of Republicans are discussing the bomb threats as a hoax.

Again, biased coverage by mainstream outlets highlights how crafted narratives push slanted perspectives on voters who trust legacy reporting. This phenomenon is exacerbated by outlets spending far less time correcting falsehoods.

Democrats, a majority of whom still trust the media, show a greater tendency to internalize the mainstream narrative without scrutiny. Republicans, who largely distrust the media, are more likely to dismiss narratives which are proven biased by independent reporting.

Golf Course Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump

The second assassination attempt on Donald Trump triggered another wave of intense media coverage. While many Democrats expressed concern about the attempt, they strongly focus on linking the event to Trump’s divisive rhetoric.

Narrative battles again erupted as Republicans claim Democrats and the media are “victim blaming” Trump by saying his own language caused the assassination attempts. Fox News reporter Peter Doocy’s confrontation with White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre about how Democrats choose to discuss these events—continuously calling Trump a “threat”—demonstrates the partisan messaging clash.

Analysis of media coverage time according Grabien data shows media outlets spent:

• 818.5 hours covering the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in the three days following.
• 328 hours covering Trump and mentioning his “rhetoric.”
• 671 hours covering Trump and mentioning him as a “threat.”
• 96 hours covering Trump and mentioning “threat to democracy.”
• 2.8 hours covering the assassination and mentioning “Democrat rhetoric.”

Combined hours of coverage mentioning Trump with “rhetoric,” “threat,” and “threat to democracy” total 1,095 hours compared to coverage of the assassination alone and mentions of “Democrat rhetoric” at just more than 820 hours.

MIG Reports data shows, in the last day:

• 24% of Democrats are mentioning the assassination attempt.
• 60% of Democrats are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.
• 57% of Republicans are mentioning the assassination attempt.
• 21% of Republicans are mentioning Trumps divisive rhetoric.

Once again, Democratic reactions suggest legacy media has strong influence over voter views with focus on Trump’s rhetoric rather than the assassination attempt itself. For Democrats, media framing reinforces pre-existing beliefs that Trump’s language incites violence. For Republicans, it further deepens distrust of both the media and Democrat credibility.

Media in the Tank for Democrats

Multiple data sources suggest the mainstream media’s framing of high-profile stories has a profound impact on the electorate—particularly Democrats who continue to trust these outlets. The disproportionate airtime given to narratives that align with Democratic viewpoints continues to foster anger and distrust among non-Democratic voters.

People use terms like “gaslighting,” “media bias,” and “we’re being lied to,” in discussions about how legacy outlets report on American political and cultural issues.

Increasingly, voters say they believe mainstream outlets attempt to control which stories gain traction and how long they remain in the spotlight. They suggest bias in favor of Democrats is intended to influence voter opinions and, ultimately, election outcomes.

However, given that Democratic voters compose the dwindling segment of Americans who consistently believe mainstream media narratives, some conclude the media’s influence and credibility is declining.

This is demonstrated by:

• Democrats often voting in alignment with issues amplified by the media, such as abortion, social justice, and government spending programs.
• Republicans repeatedly expressing distrust in media, driving them to seek alternative sources of information on platforms like X.

Political discourse has intensified following the Trump versus Harris debate, with MIG Reports data showing Trump continuing to surge as Harris loses momentum. Stories like the infamous Springfield, Ohio incident, where rumors swirled about Haitian migrants allegedly consuming cats and dogs, served to further polarize partisan divides. Against a backdrop of ire toward the media and Democrats, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump also ignites passions on both sides.

• National sentiment toward Trump remains strong, maintaining at least a 5-point lead over Harris since the debate.
• Republican support across the electoral college remains tight, with Democrats gaining slight ground since the debate.

Media Frenzy and Voter Anger

After the debate, headlines fixated on Springfield and the media’s demonization of Trump. The controversial Haitian migrant story brought the media and Democrats’ integrity to the forefront with Republicans hammering the underlying issue of forced migration. Democrats, meanwhile, focused on claims of misinformation from Trump and J.D. Vance, which the media said foments xenophobia and fear, leading to reported bomb threats in Springfield.

JUST IN: Ohio governor says all 33 bomb threats against Springfield, Ohio have been hoaxes that are coming from overseas.

Just another media-fueled hoax.

Governor Mike DeWine said the threats are coming from "one particular country."

"33 separate bomb threats, each one of… pic.twitter.com/JHXQqBOAEe

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 16, 2024

Ohio governor Mike DeWine’s confirmation that all 33 bomb threats in Springfield were hoaxes by foreign actors continued to stir anger from Trump supporters against the media and Democrats.

Next, Americans grew furious with the media after the second assassination attempt on Trump. Many fair-minded Americans—including former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo—express displeasure with rhetoric from Democrats and the media, who blame Trump’s own tone and language for the assassination attempt.

Watching Chris Cuomo get redpilled is absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/Ew1Dr0xj4W

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 17, 2024

Democrats, represented by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre still refuse to change their language against Trump. Even when called out by reporters, Jean-Pierre doubled down on accusations against Republicans as dangerous.

KJP rages at Fox's @Pdoocy:

Doocy: "How many more assassination attempts on Donald Trump until the president, vice president, and you pick a different word other than threat?"

KJP: "I disagree with your question." pic.twitter.com/1YSMDwXqnS

— Media Research Center (@theMRC) September 17, 2024

The Big Picture: Kamala Craters

MIG Reports analysis of likely voter base turnout among Trump and Harris supporters paints a striking picture.

• 73.7% of Trump supporters express approval and intention to vote for him.
• 52.08% of Kamala Harris supports voice approval and intention to vote.
• This is compared to 72% likely turnout for Trump and 64% for Harris pre-debate.

This gap highlights the surging enthusiasm for Trump against a loss of enthusiasm for Harris. In addition, average sentiment in conversations about Trump and Harris shows 47% approval toward Trump versus 30% toward Harris.

Conversations Mentioning Trump

• 47% of voters nationally express approval toward Trump.
• 25.5% explicitly express opposition to Trump.
• 24.5% are undecided, though a portion of the group say they lean toward Trump.

Conversations Mentioning Harris

• 29.5% of voters nationally express approval toward Harris.
• 46% explicitly express opposition to Harris.
• 20.5% are undecided or unengaged.

These numbers illustrate why Trump, despite negative press, assassination attempts, and relentless Democratic criticism, continues to maintain a robust core of dedicated voters. By contrast, Harris struggles to consolidate even her own base, facing widespread skepticism and disengagement.

Swing States and the Battle for 2024

Swing states are critical to the outcome of the 2024 election, and data suggests Kamala Harris is losing ground in key battlegrounds. Despite a small sentiment bump in some MIG Reports data sets, voter conversations about Harris remain negative.

MIG Reports initiates analysis, weighing general sentiment embedded in conversations. Analysis incorporates negativity about the assassination attempt among MAGA voters in conversations mentioning Trump as well as negativity from Democrats about Trump's rhetoric. This suggests conversation analysis remains consistent with a picture of surging support for trump and falling support for Harris.

CBS News recently reported, in critical blue counties in Nevada, reporters were only about to find a single Harris supporter. These reports align with voter sentiment analysis online.

CBS IN NEVADA: “In every single restaurant, the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant and we left no stone unturned”

pic.twitter.com/RVA0PGOC7t

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 17, 2024

Swing State Voter Sentiment

• Trump’s strong appeal to blue-collar and rural voters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, is driving much of his momentum.
• Harris struggles with perceptions of being "out of touch" with everyday Americans, an issue amplified by her progressive policies on immigration and the economy.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Support

• Social justice and equality: Supporters view Harris as a champion for marginalized groups, particularly on issues like healthcare and civil rights.
• Progressive policies: Voters value her commitment to addressing climate change and economic inequality.
• Leadership style: For some, Harris represents a strong, modern leader capable of navigating the complexities of global politics.

Opposition

• Economic concerns: Her policies on taxes and healthcare attract skepticism, especially from middle-class voters.
• Weak on immigration: Critics argue Harris has failed to secure the border, promoting open borders and forced migration.
• Character issues: There is a widespread belief that Harris lacks integrity, stemming from her policy flip-flops and public statements.

Donald Trump

Support

• Economic growth: Trump’s policies on taxes and deregulation appeal to a broad base who value economic stability.
• Border security: Voters express desire for Trump’s tough stance on immigration, securing the border, and deportation.
• Perception of strength: Despite controversial rhetoric, voters view Trump as someone who "gets things done" and stands up to political elites.
• Law enforcement: Americans like his strong emphasis on law and order.

Opposition

• Divisive rhetoric: Trump’s language on race, gender, and social issues alienates many undecided voters.
• Abortion: Many who oppose Trump cite his stance on abortion as a key factor.
• Concerns about temperament: Many raise questions about Trump's fitness for office, citing his demeanor as "unpresidential."

Where the Race Stands

Looking ahead, the data suggests Trump maintains a solid path to victory, with his core supporters holding strong and voicing enthusiasm for turning out. Harris faces the daunting task of both positioning herself against Trump but energizing a growing apathetic and divided Democratic base. Trump’s ability to rally voters—despite media opposition and political violence—will likely be pivotal in securing a win.

MIG Reports analysis of sentiment and support for Kamala Harris among Democratic voters reveals an enthusiasm gap. While some express strong support for her policies and leadership, most are not driven by Harris’s personal or candidate appeal. Instead, much of the enthusiasm stems from dislike for Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda.

Harris, who was deeply unpopular among Democrats during her 2020 presidential bid and in her tenure as Biden’s VP, seems to still be struggling with positive voter perceptions. This analysis explores key patterns behind voter support for Kamala Harris, highlighting how anti-Trump sentiment shape Democratic voter behavior.

Can Harris Pull Out a Win on Trump Hatred?

In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris faces similar challenges to those in 2016 and 2004, where negative sentiment against the opposition wasn’t enough to drive turnout. In both elections, opposition to Trump and Bush was strong, but lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and Kerry respectively resulted in lower Democratic turnout.

Google search trends indicate, in the previous two election cycles, the highest spikes in user searches for “register to vote” happened in mid to late September.

This year, mail-in ballot requests in critical states like Pennsylvania are down for Democrats, both compared to Republicans and compared to Democrats in 2020.

📢 PENNSYLVANIA DATA DROP ‼️

Mail-in ballot requests R vs D

2020 (50 days out)
GOP: 376,956
Dem: 1,101,962

2024 (50 days out)
GOP: 321,077
Dem: 798,946

KAMALA IS DOWN 303,016 requests compared to 2020.

Dems are shaking in their crocs!!!

— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) September 17, 2024

Harris's policies on immigration and Palestine are controversial within her own party, with many Democrats either finding her too liberal or disagreeing with her foreign policy. If her campaign relies solely on Trump hatred without generating positive enthusiasm for her candidacy, voter turnout may fall short. This may result in a repeat of the 2016 and 2004 elections, where Democrats were surprised to find opposition wasn’t enough to secure victory.

Enthusiasm is Actually Anti-Trump Fervor

Conditional Support for Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has a base of support among Democratic voters, according to MIG Reports analysis of online discussions. Many voters praise her performance in the debate, her background as a prosecutor, and her stance on issues like social justice and healthcare.

Discussions of Kamala Harris which do not focus on the election show 43.6% express direct support for her. However, this support is not as stark with deeper analysis. In conversations mentioning Harris's policies or leadership positively, reactions also focus on the political climate over her accomplishments.

Criticism of Trump as a Driving Force

Much of the conversation among Democrats which mention Kamala Harris are not about her but rather about Donald Trump. In election-specific discussions, 25% of conversations focus solely on criticizing Trump. They label him as representing "terror" and "lies.” Harris supporters largely incorporate this sentiment in all their supportive mentions of Harris.

Voters frame Harris as a necessary opponent to Trump, positioning her as a vehicle for resisting Trump’s influence rather than rallying around her personal achievements or vision. This pattern suggests, for many Democrats, Harris represents the best hope for defeating Trump, rather than an inspiring candidate on her own.

Voter Behavior Motivated by Opposition

In conversations mentioning Trump and Harris in a head-to-head race, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiments about Harris. While 42% of the conversation was positive, much of that positivity is focused on her role as a foil to Trump. Voters view her as a champion against his policies.

Broader trends in Democratic voter enthusiasm show an urgency to reject Trump outweighing affirmative support for Harris.

Kamala as a Symbol of Opposition

In many cases, Kamala Harris's support appears to be symbolic, with voters rallying behind her as a replacement for Biden and a figurehead of the Party. While some say they appreciate her leadership and policies, 23.5% primarily criticize Trump and his allies. In addition to her role as a political opponent to Trump, Harris’s identity as a woman of color adds to the symbolic nature of her candidacy.

For many Democrats, her race and gender are celebrated as markers of progress, positioning her as a trailblazer in American politics. However, her identity also draws skepticism for others, with some feeling her symbolism outweighs her qualifications. This divide underscores the conditional nature of her support, where enthusiasm hinges on what she represents rather than her achievements.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s decision to exit the 2024 presidential race and endorse Donald Trump sparked intense debate two weeks ago. But conversations continue as legal battles play out around removing his name from certain state ballots. Some states agreed to remove RFK Jr., but others resisted. Voter reactions to this development have been divided, particularly in the states where the issue is contested.

RFK Jr.'s Exit and Ballot Controversies

RFK Jr., previously running as a third-party candidate, dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Trump. In doing so, he requested to be removed from the ballots in 10 critical states to prevent siphoning votes from Trump.

States like North Carolina and Michigan generated controversy over this issue, with state officials and courts debating the legality of his removal. While some states like North Carolina have complied, others still remain unclear about leaving his name on the ballot.

Voter Sentiments

American responses to RFK Jr.'s request and some states fighting back are divided.

Pro-Trump Voters

For many Trump supporters, RFK Jr.'s removal from the ballot is seen as a non-issue. They view his candidacy as largely irrelevant but believe his Trump endorsement, along with Tulsi Gabbard’s, solidifies a larger MAGA base. However, there are concerns about whether keeping RFK Jr. on the ballot in some states might lead to confusion among voters, especially if some Trump-leaning voters mistakenly support RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. Supporters

Some who backed RFK Jr. during his run see his removal as a form of voter suppression. Many view him as a voice against the political establishment, and his forced removal from ballots is seen as undermining democratic choice. However, there are also many RFK Jr. Supporters who have moved, with Kennedy, to support Trump, expressing a willingness to vote for him if Kennedy is removed from ballots.

Democratic Voters

For Democrats, Kennedy’s presence on ballots is potentially damaging. Many fear he could split the vote, especially in swing states, aiding Trump in securing critical electoral victories. These voters generally support removing him from ballots, expressing relief when states comply.

Swing States and Legal Battles

The reactions in swing states have been particularly intense, with significant legal and public debate over RFK Jr.’s name remaining on ballots.

North Carolina's decision to delay absentee ballots due to the removal of RFK Jr.'s name has frustrated voters across the spectrum. Pro-Trump voters are concerned that military and overseas voters, many of whom rely on absentee ballots, could be disenfranchised. The delay, while seen as necessary by some, is viewed by others as a threat to the integrity of the election process.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, RFK Jr. remains on the ballot, sparking concerns that his presence could siphon votes from Trump. Republican strategists express apprehension about the potential for confusion among voters. There is also a growing push for early voting efforts to ensure a solid base turnout.

In Ohio and Pennsylvania, the debate has become increasingly heated, with both sides accusing the other of attempting to manipulate the electoral process. The outcome of these debates could have significant implications for the 2024 presidential election. Both sides express concern about RFK Jr. Upsetting their candidate’s winning potential.

All voter conversations about RFK Jr.’s removal are marked by accusations of voter suppression, manipulation, and conspiracy theories. Trump supporters accuse states who refuse to remove him as evidence of politicization. They say many states fought Kennedy about getting on the ballot when he was in the race and are now fighting him about being removed. Meanwhile, Democrats tend to view removing Kennedy as a necessary step to avoid confusion and prevent vote-splitting.

What This Means for the 2024 Election

While the impact of RFK Jr.’s ballot presence or absence is not fully resolved, there are potential implications:

• Swing State Dynamics: In key swing states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, RFK Jr.'s presence could be a wildcard. His name could attract disaffected Independent voters, potentially pulling votes from either major party candidates. However, if his removal proceeds smoothly in more states, the focus will likely shift back to the primary candidates, diminishing his influence.
• Voter Turnout and Engagement: The delay in absentee ballots in states like North Carolina could impact voter turnout, particularly among military voters and those living abroad. Early voting drives, especially among Republicans, will be crucial to offset any confusion or disenfranchisement resulting from the ballot controversy.
• Polarization and Mistrust: The debate over RFK Jr.’s ballot presence is likely to deepen partisan divisions. As both sides accuse the other of manipulating the system, trust in the electoral process may erode further. This could fuel higher turnout among those motivated by a perceived threat to election integrity, but it could also lead to greater apathy among disillusioned voters.