Early Voting Suggests Trump is Out Ahead in Critical Races
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Key Takeaways
- During the first weekend of early voting, Trump looks to have a lead in support and voter turnout.
- Trump support is driven by a sense of urgency around border control, national sovereignty, and restoring economic security.
- Harris supporters are energized by a focus on equality, social justice, and abortion, seeking structural change and progressive values.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
100,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
1 Day
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
MIG Reports data from American conversations about the first weekend of early voting shows Trump positivity. Weighted analysis suggests the likely direction of mid-Friday through mid-Saturday early voting, as well as general discussion and sentiment trends.
According to voter discussions, Donald Trump has roughly even odds of leading in initial early voting. This assessment is made with moderate confidence, based on multiple MIG Reports data sets which—though they are not polls—often produce similar results to trusted polling.
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Voter Reaction Analysis
- Trump: 66.80%
- Harris: 32.29%
Data suggests Donald Trump may lead up to 66.8% of early voting with his strongest positions on immigration, border security, and the economy. There is some concern regarding international conflict due to Trump’s polarizing leadership style—particularly regarding Israel and Ukraine).
Meanwhile, Harris does not hold a stronger position on the national security front. Harris’s support is found in discussions about healthcare, climate policy, and abortion. Harris gains ground with voters focusing on women’s rights and economic reform, although criticisms of her perceived ineffectiveness and lack of clear policy positions is pervasive.
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Border Security
Border security is a dominant issue in early voter discussions, particularly for Trump supporters. Voters cite Trump's strong stance on securing the border, his push for stricter immigration policies, and his commitment to reducing illegal immigration as major reasons for their support.
Critics of Harris point to her leniency on immigration and "open borders" policies. They frame her approach as a security risk. Across voter conversations, including in early voting states, border security consistently ranks as a high priority issue. This leads to Trump gaining overwhelming support with voters who want border security urgently.
Preference for Trump also dominates about immigration policy, which many discuss with border security. His proposed wall and efforts to deport illegal immigrants resonates with voters worried about national security. Harris get criticism for her immigration policies, though some appreciate her focus on human rights and a path to citizenship for immigrants.
Economy
The economy is the other most frequently discussed issue for both candidates, though the tone varies significantly. Trump supporters praise his tax cuts, job creation, and efforts to stimulate economic growth—especially in sectors like manufacturing and small business.
Harris supporters focus on her plans to reduce inequality, provide healthcare for all, and tackle the rising cost of living. While Harris gains voters concerned about middle-class economics, Trump is the dominant choice for those focused on economic stability and conservative financial policies.
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Social Justice
For Harris, social justice is a key issue among progressive voters. Discussions about her policies on racial equality, police reform, and civil rights play a central role in her appeal.
Among progressives, Trump is viewed as unsympathetic to social justice concerns as they accuse him of exacerbating racial tensions. The polarized nature of this debate shows division between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats overwhelmingly preferring Harris on social issues.
Healthcare
Healthcare is also important for Harris’s supporters. Voters are drawn to her positions on expanding access to healthcare, supporting Medicare for All, and lowering prescription drug prices.
Criticisms of Trump’s healthcare policies, particularly his efforts to dismantle Obamacare are rampant among those who prioritize healthcare access. Trump supporters are more likely to praise his administration’s deregulation efforts in the healthcare industry, focusing on lowering costs and expanding options for consumers. Many also appreciate his alignment with RFK Jr.’s health platform.
Abortion
Abortion is a particularly important issue for Harris supporters, especially among women and progressives. Harris’s pro-choice stance and her vocal support for protecting abortion rights is a pillar of her platform, gaining a large share of her voters.
Trump’s supporters, particularly those with conservative values, are strongly opposed to abortion and prefer his efforts to restrict abortion access and appoint pro-life judges to the Supreme Court. The debate over abortion is a clear line of division between the two candidates, with highly emotional and polarized discourse.
The Mood for 2024
There is a noticeable anti-establishment tone throughout voter discussions, particularly among Trump supporters. They frequently voice distrust of the current political and media systems. These voters frame their support for Trump as a rebellion against entrenched elites, corrupt governance, and bureaucratic overreach. They particularly highlight border security, economic regulation, and perceived threats to national sovereignty.
For Harris supporters, while less overtly anti-establishment, there is still some frustration with the status quo. The is a point of contention regarding social justice, healthcare, and economic inequality. Progressive voters express a desire reform, but their stance is more about transforming the current system from within, rather than overthrowing it.
Overall, the anti-establishment sentiment is stronger and more explicitly expressed on the conservative side, whereas progressive voters are more focused on reforming the existing structures rather than rejecting them entirely.
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