Post-Debate: Is the Harris Campaign Crashing?

September 18, 2024 Post-Debate: Is the Harris Campaign Crashing?  image

Key Takeaways

  • Following the debate, media attacks on Trump and a second assassination attempt push voters into his corner.
  • The likelihood of the respective voter bases turning out to vote moved from 64% to 52% for Harris and 72% to 74% for Trump before and after the debate.
  • Conversations about Harris are mostly negative, while conversations about Trump express support for him and anger toward the media and Democrats.

Our Methodology

Demographics

All Voters

Sample Size

150,000

Geographical Breakdown

National

Time Period

7 Days

MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article. 

Political discourse has intensified following the Trump versus Harris debate, with MIG Reports data showing Trump continuing to surge as Harris loses momentum. Stories like the infamous Springfield, Ohio incident, where rumors swirled about Haitian migrants allegedly consuming cats and dogs, served to further polarize partisan divides. Against a backdrop of ire toward the media and Democrats, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump also ignites passions on both sides.

  • National sentiment toward Trump remains strong, maintaining at least a 5-point lead over Harris since the debate.
  • Republican support across the electoral college remains tight, with Democrats gaining slight ground since the debate.

Media Frenzy and Voter Anger

After the debate, headlines fixated on Springfield and the media’s demonization of Trump. The controversial Haitian migrant story brought the media and Democrats’ integrity to the forefront with Republicans hammering the underlying issue of forced migration. Democrats, meanwhile, focused on claims of misinformation from Trump and J.D. Vance, which the media said foments xenophobia and fear, leading to reported bomb threats in Springfield.

Ohio governor Mike DeWine’s confirmation that all 33 bomb threats in Springfield were hoaxes by foreign actors continued to stir anger from Trump supporters against the media and Democrats.

Next, Americans grew furious with the media after the second assassination attempt on Trump. Many fair-minded Americans—including former CNN anchor Chris Cuomo—express displeasure with rhetoric from Democrats and the media, who blame Trump’s own tone and language for the assassination attempt.

Democrats, represented by White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre still refuse to change their language against Trump. Even when called out by reporters, Jean-Pierre doubled down on accusations against Republicans as dangerous.

The Big Picture: Kamala Craters

MIG Reports analysis of likely voter base turnout among Trump and Harris supporters paints a striking picture.

  • 73.7% of Trump supporters express approval and intention to vote for him.
  • 52.08% of Kamala Harris supports voice approval and intention to vote.
  • This is compared to 72% likely turnout for Trump and 64% for Harris pre-debate.

This gap highlights the surging enthusiasm for Trump against a loss of enthusiasm for Harris. In addition, average sentiment in conversations about Trump and Harris shows 47% approval toward Trump versus 30% toward Harris.

Conversations Mentioning Trump

  • 47% of voters nationally express approval toward Trump.
  • 25.5% explicitly express opposition to Trump.
  • 24.5% are undecided, though a portion of the group say they lean toward Trump.

Conversations Mentioning Harris

  • 29.5% of voters nationally express approval toward Harris.
  • 46% explicitly express opposition to Harris.
  • 20.5% are undecided or unengaged.

These numbers illustrate why Trump, despite negative press, assassination attempts, and relentless Democratic criticism, continues to maintain a robust core of dedicated voters. By contrast, Harris struggles to consolidate even her own base, facing widespread skepticism and disengagement.

Swing States and the Battle for 2024

Swing states are critical to the outcome of the 2024 election, and data suggests Kamala Harris is losing ground in key battlegrounds. Despite a small sentiment bump in some MIG Reports data sets, voter conversations about Harris remain negative.

MIG Reports initiates analysis, weighing general sentiment embedded in conversations. Analysis incorporates negativity about the assassination attempt among MAGA voters in conversations mentioning Trump as well as negativity from Democrats about Trump's rhetoric. This suggests conversation analysis remains consistent with a picture of surging support for trump and falling support for Harris.

CBS News recently reported, in critical blue counties in Nevada, reporters were only about to find a single Harris supporter. These reports align with voter sentiment analysis online.

Swing State Voter Sentiment

  • Trump’s strong appeal to blue-collar and rural voters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, is driving much of his momentum.
  • Harris struggles with perceptions of being "out of touch" with everyday Americans, an issue amplified by her progressive policies on immigration and the economy.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Support

  • Social justice and equality: Supporters view Harris as a champion for marginalized groups, particularly on issues like healthcare and civil rights.
  • Progressive policies: Voters value her commitment to addressing climate change and economic inequality.
  • Leadership style: For some, Harris represents a strong, modern leader capable of navigating the complexities of global politics.

Opposition

  • Economic concerns: Her policies on taxes and healthcare attract skepticism, especially from middle-class voters.
  • Weak on immigration: Critics argue Harris has failed to secure the border, promoting open borders and forced migration.
  • Character issues: There is a widespread belief that Harris lacks integrity, stemming from her policy flip-flops and public statements.

Donald Trump

Support

  • Economic growth: Trump’s policies on taxes and deregulation appeal to a broad base who value economic stability.
  • Border security: Voters express desire for Trump’s tough stance on immigration, securing the border, and deportation.
  • Perception of strength: Despite controversial rhetoric, voters view Trump as someone who "gets things done" and stands up to political elites.
  • Law enforcement: Americans like his strong emphasis on law and order.

Opposition

  • Divisive rhetoric: Trump’s language on race, gender, and social issues alienates many undecided voters.
  • Abortion: Many who oppose Trump cite his stance on abortion as a key factor.
  • Concerns about temperament: Many raise questions about Trump's fitness for office, citing his demeanor as "unpresidential."

Where the Race Stands

Looking ahead, the data suggests Trump maintains a solid path to victory, with his core supporters holding strong and voicing enthusiasm for turning out. Harris faces the daunting task of both positioning herself against Trump but energizing a growing apathetic and divided Democratic base. Trump’s ability to rally voters—despite media opposition and political violence—will likely be pivotal in securing a win.

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