Although many Democrats online express support for the Biden administration, the party as a whole, and include VP Harris, there is question about whether she alone could maintain even Biden’s decreasing levels of confidence among the American people.

Comparing Harris to other politicians in her party, MIG data suggests that her popularity is lower than President Biden's, even among Democrats.

• In the last 30 days, Harris has shown an average approval of 46% compared to Biden’s 49%.
• Harris’ 30-day low of 42% trails 6 points behind Biden’s low of 48% and only rose above Biden once on February 5.

How Democrats Talk about VP Harris

Although both receive criticism, it appears more focused on Harris, with more negative remarks directed at her.

• Some conversations imply that she is seen as an insurance policy against impeachment for President Biden, rather than providing value on her own merits.
• Democrats generally show support for Harris, praising her accomplishments and expressing hope for her future success, but mostly lauding her as a symbol of representation.
• She is celebrated by many Democrats for her historic role as the first female Vice President.
• Democrats do express concern over her performance, suggesting that the administration needs to find better ways to communicate its achievements to the public.
• Many defend Harris and Biden against criticism and reaffirm their intention to vote for the Democratic party in future elections, regardless of current sentiment.
• This position is expressed along with frustration at her performance and suggestions she is less popular than some of her Democratic counterparts.

Praise and Criticism for Kamala Harris

There are some positives which Harris supporters point out.

• The VP is celebrated for her involvement in initiatives like Transit Equity Day.
• It's clear that her identity as the first woman, first Black woman, and first Asian American woman to be Vice President is a source of pride.
• People often praise her experience as a former senator and attorney general of California.
• Her support for progressive policies such as climate change, equality, and healthcare is greatly appreciated within the party.
• While she has a strong base of support among Democrats, she is also the subject of intense criticism.
• Many view Harris as less experienced and more ideologically driven than Biden.
• Some Democrats express concerns about her past record as a prosecutor in California and her handling of key assignments.
• She has also received criticism for her performance and inaction as Border Czar.
• Many in her own party expressed dissatisfaction at her management of the border, with some going as far as to call for her impeachment.
• There are complaints about perceived lack of visibility and effectiveness in her role, and concerns about low approval ratings as the 2024 election nears.
• There is worry that her past stances on criminal justice issues could alienate progressive voters and harm the party's chances in future elections.
• There is a sense of disappointment among some Democrats due to perceived underperformance and lack of tangible action.
• A primary concern among Democrats is a perceived lack of transparency and accountability.
• Many criticize what they perceive as her inability to effectively communicate and defend the administration's policies.
• Another complaint is her perceived lack of visibility regarding major policy issues.
• Some argue she has not been proactive in advancing the Biden administration's policy agenda and worry that she may not be prepared to assume the presidency if needed.
• Several voters indicate a concern about the potential for Harris to become President, either through the 25th amendment or in the event of the impeachment of President Biden.

Comparatively, Harris seems to be less popular than many politicians within her own party. This perception is driven by her low approval ratings.

The discourse surrounding Joe Biden's cognitive abilities has been a contentious topic across all political spectrums. Americans perceived his recent press conference as an unmitigated disaster and even his defenders cannot continue to ignore the rumors of his decline.

In the 24 hours since the Special Council report detailed Biden’s mental unfitness to face charges in a classified document case, and after his contentious press conference, Biden’s approval has yet to take a significant hit. While this could still change, one implication could be that Democrats still intend to vote along party lines, even if they believe he is mentally unfit for office.

• In the last day, Biden’s approval remained strong at 48% and Trump saw a slight bump from 47% to 48%.

The top discussion topics regarding the president online in the last 24 hours include:

Reactions to the Special Council Report

Online discussion predictably reflected partisan divides in the aftermath of the Special Council’s report calling Biden a “Sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

• Republicans expressed disappointment and anger, suggesting that the decision not to charge him was a product of bias and not reflective of the truth.
• Many cited the very similar charges brought against Trump as evidence of a two-tier justice system.
• Republicans say the decision not to charge Biden was politically motivated and determining Biden unfit for charges but fit for office is an untenable contradiction.
• There are calls for the application of the 25th Amendment or impeachment, as well as suggestions that the same leniency wasn't extended to former President Trump.
• Many Democrats saw the refusal to charge as a vindication of Biden and a repudiation of what they perceive as baseless accusations.
• Some suggest that Biden's focus may have been elsewhere due to the complex and numerous issues he is dealing with, like the crisis in Ukraine and the attack by Hamas.
• They are focusing on the fact that Biden will not face charges, rather than the salience of the reasons given by the DOJ.
• Despite most Democrats avoiding the issue prior to the report, there is now some expressed concern it gives credence to doubts about Biden's cognitive abilities.
• Some Democrats acknowledge concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities, but they primarily view these as character attacks, expressing support for Biden and Harris.
• A few have admitted the special counsel's assessment of Biden's cognitive abilities is concerning, questioning if someone unfit for trial should continue as POTUS.

Conversations Following the President’s Confused Press Conference

Many people across all political affiliations commented on Biden’s confusion about Gaza, the Mexico border, and the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. However, explanations for his confusion differed depending on political affiliation.

• Republicans pointed out that Biden made these egregious errors directly after defending his fitness and denying any memory problems, using it as evidence of his decline.
• They suggest the press conference confirmed the special counsel's report about Biden’s poor memory and deteriorating cognition.
• Democrats continue to dismiss these concerns, pointing out that occasional verbal gaffes are common among all politicians, regardless of age or cognitive fitness.
• Many Democrats also cited the complex nature of the issues he was addressing, claiming mistakes are not indicative of dementia or other cognitive deteriorations.
• Some Democrats compared Biden to former President Trump, asserting that Biden's actions were not as damaging or obstructive as Trump's.

It is clear that bias and party loyalty is shaping public perceptions about Biden’s mistakes which, everyone now admits, are noticeable. This highlights the deep-seated divisions within the current political landscape.

In a recent Las Vegas rally, President Biden shored up support from Nevada Democrats before winning the Nevada Primary this Tuesday. With few real Democrat challengers, Biden aimed much of his speech at his inevitable challenger, former President Donald Trump, in what Newsweek called Biden’s, “Angriest Speech Yet”. However, the subject matter of Biden’s fiery critique of Trump was quickly overshadowed by yet another gaffe from the 81 year old Commander-in-Chief. Biden told the audience of Nevadans that at the beginning of his Presidency, he met with G20 leaders and he spoke to a French President who died in 1996. The clip of yet another Biden senior moment was viewed 21 million times on X, with 11,000 reposts and 40,000 likes.

MIG’s report revealed the President’s appearance in the Silver state did little to sway Nevada, both in approval for Biden and in head to head support vs Trump. Much of the online discussions surrounding Biden revealed themes of either dismay at the state of the Biden’s America or serious nostalgia for the Trump Presidency.

By the Numbers

MIG’s data reveals that after Biden’s Sunday speech (2/4) in Las Vegas, his approval amongst online discussants remained stuck in the mid 40% range, rising only 1% the day of his speech.

• This matches the response to President Trump’s visit to Nevada in late January, when his approval also mariginally rose from 44% to 45% the day of his speech. But Trump’s approval rose to 48% that week when legal developments involving the President broke.

In head to head support analysis, MIG found that in Nevada over the last month:

• Trump averaged 50% support.
  
• Biden averages 41% support.
  
• RFK jr. averaged 9% support.

Biden also trails Trump on key issues in Nevada:

• On the economy, online discussions still show Trump beating Biden 47% to 41%.
  
• On Border Security, Trump trounces Biden 47% to 39%.
  
• On the Topic of Security Issues, Trump Holds 44% to Biden’s 38%.
  

The Trump Show

The lack of approval changes after both Biden and Trump’s speeches in Nevada reflects a broader trend seen in politics: campaigning directly to voters, known as retail politics is useless against Trump.

• Instead, Trump’s ability leverage charisma and media to connect with the electorate has controlled the political narrative-by framing establishment prosecutions as attacks against the silent majority.
  
• MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions centering on Trump demonstrated “Trump's narrative of being an outsider battling against a corrupt system resonates with his supporters. When he is prosecuted, it bolsters this narrative and makes him appear as a martyr fighting against a rigged system.”
  
• Biden’s cognitive decline leaves little ability to leverage media in the way his predecessor does, leaving Biden strategists to focus on Biden’s policies.

BideNOmics

Yet the Biden strategy of focusing on policy is already proving fruitless, as analysis by MIG in both Clark County and Nevada shows:

• In Nevada, amongst online users discussing Biden, “There is a perception among users that Biden is favoring non-citizens over U.S. citizens, particularly in reference to immigration and housing issues.”
  
• Negative sentiment on the economy is also strong in Clark County specifically, where MIG found:
  • “concerns about the increasing rent prices and unaffordable housing, which some attribute to "Bidenomics".”
    
  • More generally, “Frustration over increasing living costs under Biden's administration, with some individuals claiming their cost of living has significantly increased.”

Make America Great Again, Again

Biden’s strategy of contrasting his Presidency with Trump to Nevadans falls flat beyond its own merits, with many highlighting preference for the Trump Presidency. MIG’s analysis of Nevada online discussions comparing Trump to Biden found:

• Foreign Policy: “Many comments compare Biden's Presidency with Trump's..people seem to believe that Trump had a more peaceful approach to foreign policy, refraining from starting new wars, and had a better relationship with countries like Russia and North Korea.”
  
• Immigration: “Criticism of Biden often centers on the perceived lack of control over the southern border and the potential implications for crime and the economy. These users view Biden's policies as too lenient, leading to an increase in illegal immigration.” While other “users believe that Trump was better at enforcing immigration laws and protecting the border, and criticize Biden for his stance on immigration.”
  
• Despite media framing of Trump holding back immigration reform, Nevadans who appear to not even be Republicans continue to slam Biden, “People are comparing Biden's policies to previous administrations, particularly those of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, criticizing Biden for not being as assertive on immigration issues.”
  
• Handling of the Economy: “Some users argue that Trump was better at managing the economy, pointing to the GDP growth under his administration.”

Looking Ahead

Despite Biden’s Las Vegas rally and a strong primary win, the incumbent President’s campaign looks increasingly helpless in the face of a dominant showing by Donald Trump in swing states like Nevada and national polling in general.

The best campaign gurus of the left can do little to twist reality of what life was like during the Trump Presidency compared to now in the eyes of voters, nor can they make the noticeably 81 year old President seem any younger.

MIG's analysis underscores a stagnant approval rating for Biden in the face of an enduring appeal on Trump era policies on the economy, border security, and national security. Even if the unemployment rate continues to remains strong and inflation plateaus, Biden's message will continue to be overshadowed by Trump’s dominance of the news cycle and gaffes that fuel discussions about his fitness for office. This reflects a broader trend in American politics where charismatic leadership and dominance of media presence increasingly overshadow traditional retail politics. It becomes more and more clear that there is little Biden can do to win the hearts and minds of voters in an era of personality and vibes driven politics that Trump has mastered.

AOC, Illhan Omar, and Cori Bush finds themselves embroiled in chaos of their own doing, as members navigate investigations, defending Biden, and questions of national allegiance. Representative Cori Bush (D-MO) faces a damning DOJ and FEC investigation over misuse of campaign and government funds, while Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-MN) grapples with the fallout from what many have called a “Somalia First” speech, shocking conservatives and globalist Democrats alike. Meanwhile, AOC faces fire from both Israel defenders and Pro-Palestine radicals for defending both Biden and the UN’s shady ties to Hamas.

Cori Bush: Police For Me, Not For Thee

• Rep. Cori Bush, a second-term lawmaker who paved her path to Congress casting herself as an anti-police zealot has found herself in the DOJ’s crosshairs over misuse of government and campaign funds made to her now-husband, who was part of her private security team.
• Bush confirmed her cooperation with the Department of Justice's investigation, but bemoaned that “right wing organizations have lodged baseless complaints against me, peddling notions that I have misused campaign funds”. Yet, the investigation into Bush is also being conducted by the Federal Election Commission, which oversees campaign finance crimes.

What they’re saying

• In part of her defense, Bush argued the security expenses were necessary for her personal safety. Bush’s comments were met with the usual ire seen from right wing voices, with Tomi Lahren telling Fox News radio listeners, “Bush was one of the loudest voices in the BLM fight to “defund the police,” but turns out she only wanted YOUR protection to be reduced.”
  
• Bush’s duplicity was even too much for far left talking heads to ignore. Cenk Uyghur of “The Young Turks", a far left youtube channel with 1.5 million subscribers, echoed Lahren’s comments, telling listeners, “is there a sense of irony here, no protection for you but protection for me?" to which co-host Ana Kasparian quipped back "In situations where you can't rely on police, just hire private police-it only costs hundreds of thousands of dollars".

By the Numbers

• MIG reports found that the perception of disconnect between Bush’s politics and lifestyle is also held by everyday Americans, and it’s sullying the Squad’s reputation as a whole.
  
• MIG’s AI summary analysis found that in discussions surrounding Bush online, “posts link the investigation to Bush's ideological affiliations, particularly her membership in the "Squad." Users online suggest that Bush and her allies are hypocritical and corrupt.”
  
• The negative sentiment circling Bush online registered strongly, with MIG’s data showing the St. Louis rep’s online approval dropping 8% the day after the investigations were announced.

Illhan Omar: Somalia First, not America First

• Congresswoman Illhan Omar threw more fuel into the Squad’s chaos in late January as well. Omar, who has made frequent anti-semitic accusations of “dual loyalty” in Congress to Israel, created doubt over her own loyalty to the U.S. after demanding Somalia come first in US Foreign Policy in a speech in Minneapolis. "The US will do what we want, nothing else.”, Omar declared. “They must follow our orders. That is how we safeguard the interests of Somalia."
  
• Republicans Fire Back: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced a censure resolution aimed at Omar over what the Georgia firebrand called "treasonous statements.". Republican Rep. Tom Emmer added to Greene’s lawfare, announcing an ethics complaint directed at Omar.
  
• MIG online discussion analysis on Omar during this period and found a dramatic drop in her approval levels:
  • Following the January 27th speech, Omar’s approval dropped from 45% to 37%.
    
  • Omar’s approval average in the 10 days prior to the speech rested at 46%, while her approval in the 10 days since the speech averaged 41%.
    
• MIG’s summary analysis discovered strong negative sentiment amongst Americans discussing Omar’s Somalia First speech, finding:
  • “The online discussion about Ilhan Omar is highly polarized and leans mostly negative...participants express dissatisfaction and disappointment with her recent comments, which they interpret as her prioritizing her Somali identity and loyalty to Somalia over her American identity and responsibilities.”
    
  • “They accuse her of having a special relationship with the President of Somalia, referring to him as "our president," which they interpret as a sign of disloyalty to the United States.”
    
  • “Additionally, there are accusations of her supporting Sharia Law and wanting to introduce it to the United States, which is causing further negative sentiment towards her.”
    

AOC Faces Dual Criticism

Adding to the Squad's controversies, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez found herself caught in crossfire, facing criticism from both Palestinian and Israeli supporters. MIG analysis of online discussions directed at the New York Congresswoman revealed multifaceted criticisms:

• Perceived Support for Hamas: “Users criticize AOC for her perceived support for Hamas, a group they consider to be a terrorist organization, by endorsing the restoration of funding to UNRWA, which they believe indirectly benefits Hamas.”
  
• Understanding of Gaza Situation: “Some users express disappointment in AOC, suggesting she lacks a comprehensive understanding of Gaza and arguing that Hamas leaders should provide aid to Palestinians instead of relying on international organizations.”
  
• Accusation of Inconsistency: “Critics accuse AOC of inconsistency, transitioning from tears over funding Israel's Iron Dome to denying genocide, lowering her online sentiment.”
  
• Criticisms Over Support for Biden: “AOC faces negative sentiment from users who disagree with her endorsement of Joe Biden due to their own political disagreements or misalignment of her progressive ideals with Biden's centrist policies.”
  
• MIG’s analysis of the conversations surrounding AOC following her Meet the Press interview found her approval dropped 7%, while earning 37% approval on the topic of Palestine and 38% on the topic of Israel.

Looking Ahead

The ongoing scrutiny engulfing the Squad is another revealing episode that underscores the discrepancy between the supposed voice of the working class left and the reality of politicians that play by their own rules. The attention earned by self imposed chaos will deal significant blows to the image and strategy of the Progressive movement and, by extension, the Democratic Party as a whole. As the far left lawmakers grapple with the fallout of voters realizing the reality of who the Squad is, the Democratic party will continue to face PR challenges of winning over voters in a nation that increasingly demands those that represent them play by the same rules as Americans, regardless of wealth, status, or job title.

MIG data is showing a deep polarization in views about Biden's health and his potential reelection. In many conversations, there's a subtext of worry over Biden’s cognitive abilities that spans all political views. However, it's often used as a talking point rather than an expression of concern for Biden's well-being.

Republicans tend to leverage Biden’s health to criticize his capability as a leader, Democrats downplay it to counteract Republican narratives, and Independents use it as part of broader discussions on policy and leadership.

Discussions About Whether Biden is Running the Country

While views about Biden’s cognitive fitness generally divide along party lines, there is a brewing discussion about whether he is the one making important decisions.

• Most supporters believe Biden is running the country effectively, citing his focus on climate change, infrastructure, and healthcare.
• They appreciate his calm demeanor and his effort to unite the country after a contentious and polarized period.

However, a significant number of Americans express skepticism about Biden's leadership. They question his mental and physical fitness, often pointing to his age and recurring verbal gaffes.

• Generally right leaning, this group implies that there might be others "pulling the strings," as they suggest that Biden cannot be fully in charge.
• Speculation about actual decision makers include the Democratic Party's more progressive members.
• Names are mentioned like Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and The Squad, and various interest groups advocating for progressive causes.
• There is also a widespread belief among some circles that "woke" culture and corporations significantly influence Biden's policies.
• This sentiment is often expressed in discussions around issues such as race, gender, and social justice, with critics arguing that Biden is bending to the will of these progressive forces.
• Some theories suggest a shadowy, deep-state influence, implying that unknown entities might are controlling the presidency. But these theories are generally dismissed as misinformation.

It is noteworthy that these perspectives vary widely, often falling along partisan lines. Biden's supporters tend to view him as effectively running the country, while his critics are typically the ones who view his leadership skeptically.

Democrats Avoid Talking About Biden’s Cognitive Abilities

National Conversations

Democrats tend to be relatively quiet about about Biden's frequent gaffes and lack of unscripted public appearances. This suggests that Democrats may have unspoken concerns which they’re not willing to voice publicly.

• While Democrats sometimes acknowledge Biden’s coherence issues, they do not seem to view them as indicative of mental decline or as disqualifying for a potential reelection.
• Democrat commentary generally defends Biden, pointing to his achievements and dismissing criticisms of his mental health as unfounded.
• Due to the dismissiveness on the subject, one could infer that Democrats might be more supportive of Biden's policies and perhaps less likely to view his age or health as important.
• Democrats tend to argue that Biden has been an effective leader and deserves reelection.
• They rebut Republican accusations of mental decline by suggesting that these are politically motivated attacks.
• Some Democrats do express concern about the effectiveness of Biden's messaging, indicating that they believe he needs to do a better job of promoting his accomplishments.

Counter-Narratives About Trump’s Cognitive Abilities

In many discussions, Democrats argue that Trump’s mental state is equally questionable or even worse than Biden’s.

• Many refer to Trump's cognitive abilities negatively when Biden is brought up.
• They often recall instances during his presidency where his behavior or remarks were seen as erratic, unorthodox, or even authoritarian.

Swing State Democrats

In key states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and other swing states, Democrats generally align with national party sentiment, although there is more noticeable concern.

• National approval for Biden has averaged 49% in the last 30 days, while approval in swing states averaged 44%.

• Some swing state voters argue that Biden’s potential cognitive decline is being exaggerated or manipulated for political gain.
• There is noticeable dismissal when concerns are brought up, mirroring the national conversation.
• Many swing state Democrats do not directly mention Biden's health or potential mental decline.
• Lack of discussion may be due to an overshadowing anti-Trump sentiment within the party.
• However, there are some Democrats voicing concern about Biden's potential cognitive decline, arguing that it could harm the party's chances in future elections.
• A large segment of swing state Democrats seem to take issue with Republican narratives, but will not explicitly defend Biden's cognitive abilities.
• There is a clear divide among swing state Democrats about a potential Biden second term, with some expressing strong support and others voicing doubts.

Republicans View Biden as Clearly in Decline

National Conversations

Overall, Republicans tend to be most vocal about the possibility that Joe Biden is not actually running the country, but rather has “handlers” guiding him. They often express concerns about what they see as clear cognitive decline.

• Republicans frequently express concerns about Biden's mental acuity. They point to his recurring verbal stumbles, confusion, and gaffes as evidence of cognitive decline.
• They often cite Biden’s age, physical weakness, and frequent confusion as evidence of his decline.
• There are many references to Biden forgetting important details, or misspeaking. His recent mistake in mixing up Macron and Mitterrand has been a recent point of interest.
• There are repeated suggestions that Biden is "gaslighting" the public for votes or acting out of treasonous motivations.
• Many express concern over potential corruption and general incompetence within the Biden administration.
• Strong sentiments of disbelief and frustration are present, with some voters calling for Biden’s impeachment or for him to undergo cognitive testing.
• Many Republicans feel that Biden's lack of press appearances and obfuscation from his spokespeople are indicative of a more serious health issue.
• They also seem to believe that Biden's reelection would be terrible for the country due to a low probability of his completing a second term.
• This narrative is often accompanied by criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris, with detractors suggesting that she is unqualified or ineffective in her role.

American voters have an unhappy view about the job market and general state of the economy. Conversations online boil down to two indicators:

1. Distrust in the economic reporting
2. How the government spends money

Americans remain skeptical about the job reports, with claims that half of the jobs are "fake" and the other half being government jobs. They also express concern about the lack of new jobs for native-born Americans since 2018. This sentiment could be indicative of wider concerns about unemployment, underemployment, and the overall health of the job market.

Online conversations support this a pattern of the top discussions:

1. Concerns about job security and employment prospects, especially for native-born Americans
2. Doubts about the accuracy and reliability of government-provided statistics
3. Belief in the recovery and stabilization of the labor market
4. General interest in economic matters, with specific focus on employment rates and the health of the job market
5. The broader context of political discourse, with jobs and the economy being key issues in political campaigns and policy-making

Bipartisan Disapproval

Democrats' comments seem to focus more on dissatisfaction with the current tax system, advocating for reform and suggesting that wealthy individuals and large corporations are not paying their fair share. They also express concerns about how tax money is being spent, particularly with regard to funding wars.

Republicans' comments reveal a similar dissatisfaction with the tax system, but from a different angle. They mention the burden of taxes on the middle class and business owners, and they express frustration with how tax money is spent. They also seem to be against high taxes and are more likely to suggest tax cuts or reforms that reduce taxes.

Independents' comments are a mix of the above. They express frustration with the complexity of the tax system, the perceived unfairness of the distribution of tax burdens, and the misuse of tax money. They also discuss the impact of taxes on various groups, including the homeless and the self-employed. Some Independents seem open to both tax hikes for the wealthy and tax cuts for middle-income earners and businesses.

Media Narrative Support

Online conversations appear to be sustained by assistance from traditional approaches; online discussions peaked on Jan 10, Jan 18, Jan 25, Feb.

• Jan 10: several articles about Biden adding 14 million jobs
• Jan 18: Biden tweets about adding 14 million jobs
• Jan 25: several articles and Nancy Pelosi tweet about adding 14 million jobs
• Feb 1: jobs report bolstered by traditional media

Talking About - Jobs, Economic Issues (Joe Biden)

Approval - Jobs, Economic Issues (Joe Biden)

Public Awareness on the Border

Recent MIG data shows online discussions about border security is significantly increasing, implying rise in awareness and concern among Americans. The general sentiment among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents appears to be that of concern and frustration, albeit for differing reasons.

• In the last 90 days, conversation online about the border has dramatically increased from an average of 2,951 mentions per day in November to 11,088 mentions per day in January.
• In the past week, online discussion about the border has averaged 15,462 mentions per day with February 4 reaching a high of 25,228.

• American sentiment about the border has decreased in the last 90 days. Public sentiment dropped from a consistent 50% in November to 43% today.
• Sentiment on border security has remained below 50% for 84 straight days.

Reactions to the Proposed Border Bill

Discussions about the Lankford border bill appear to be highly polarized and emotionally charged. In general, the discussions also reveal a perceived link between immigration and crime. This suggests that a significant portion of the online discussion on immigration is driven by concerns over safety and rule of law.

Republicans

Sentiment among Republicans seems to be predominantly negative with strong criticism towards the border bill.

• Republicans perceive it as an open borders bill that would allow unchecked immigration and jeopardize national security.
• There are numerous calls for strict immigration control, including the deportation of illegal immigrants and the closure of the border.
• Many accuse the Biden administration of facilitating illegal immigration, which they believe has led to an increase in crime, particularly referencing recent events in New York.
• Republicans also express support for actions against certain Democratic representatives, particularly Ilhan Omar.
• Many advocate for the completion of the southern border wall initiated under Trump's administration.
• Some have even suggested extreme measures like crocodiles in rivers, electrified fences, and drones with bombs.

Democrats

• Democrat voices are less prominent in these border discussions. But there is some criticism of Republicans for spreading what they see as racist and hateful rhetoric.
• Those on the left challenge the narrative of open borders and argue that encounters at the border do not equate to an increase in the U.S. population
• Sentiment suggests they believe Republicans are spreading misinformation about the bill and using the immigration issue to stoke fear and gain political advantage.
• There are accusations of Republicans fear-mongering, particularly toward Trump and Governor Abbott.
• There is also criticism towards the spending on the wall, with some Democrats arguing that the funds could be better used for other domestic issues.
• Democrats continue to be largely critical of the border wall, but are less engaged in discussion about the current crescendo of concern around safety and rule of law.

Independents

• Sentiment among independents is harder to pin down due to the diversity of views within this group.
• There is a noticeable contingent who suggest unorthodox solutions to the border issue, like building a wall on the northern border with Canada.
• Independents are not as vocal as Republicans, but it can be inferred that they are generally concerned about border security and immigration policies.
• They seem to have more nuanced views, but tend to see the need for both border security and humane treatment of immigrants.

Reactions to James Lankford

The online sentiment regarding Senator James Lankford's actions on border security is overwhelmingly negative. Many express dissatisfaction with his border security bill, viewing it as detrimental to the United States.

Approval for Lankford has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 54% and a low of 38%.

Disapproval

• Many argue Lankford’s bill will lead to an influx of 2-3 million illegals per year or 20-30 million in a decade, effectively ending USA borders altogether.
• There’s also dissatisfaction with the bill’s distribution of funding. Many express indignation over possible allocation of more funding to Ukraine and Israel over border security.
• A few voices accuse Lankford of being swayed by bribes or outside interests rather than prioritizing the needs of American citizens.
• Some voters in Oklahoma, Lankford's home state, voice their disappointment, stating that they are closely watching his actions.
• There is a sentiment of betrayal among some Oklahomans who accuse Lankford of siding with Democrats and "selling out" Oklahoma.
• There are numerous calls for him to step down from his position, with some referring to him as a "RINO."
• There's a sentiment of betrayal and a threat of political repercussions with some users threatening to primary him in upcoming elections.
• Across party lines, there seems to be a perceived lack of focus on domestic issues.
• Overall, sentiments reflect a demand for markedly tighter border security measures, as well as a broad disapproval of the bill's provisions.

Approval

• Despite the overall negative sentiment, there are a few voices that view aid to Ukraine as beneficial to the US economy and thus support Lankford's bill.
• Arguments that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented demand for US arms sales, providing a significant boost to the American economy.
• There are a few voices of support for Lankford, arguing that he is focused on results rather than political posturing.
• However, these voices appear to be in the minority.

Reactions to Alejandro Mayorkas

Online sentiments toward Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas appear to be largely negative, with a strong focus on his alleged failure to handle the issues at the border effectively.

• Many commenters accuse Mayorkas of lying about his efforts to address what they perceive as an "invasion" at the border.
• People believe he has not taken action to curb the surge of illegal border crossings. Some even suggest that he's aiding and abetting the situation.
• This sentiment is mostly held by those who believe that Mayorkas and President Biden's border policies have exacerbated the crisis at the southern border.

Approval for Mayorkas has fluctuated in the last 14 days with a high of 48% and a low of 44%.

Division on a Mayorkas Impeachment

While talk about the border situation is generally negative, there seems to be more division about a possible Mayorkas impeachment.

Approval

• There is a strong call from many for his impeachment, with some arguing that his handling of the US-Mexico border crisis is a breach of public trust.
• Many accuse him of lying to the American people and Congress and failing to enforce border security laws.
• There is a belief that Mayorkas has not protected the homeland effectively and should be held accountable for his actions.
• Many say Mayorkas and Biden are ignoring laws they should be enforcing and do have power to act on this issue.
• Supporters insist that it is the duty of Congress members to vote in favor of his impeachment. They also accuse him of being a "Constitution hater."

Disapproval

• On the other hand, there are many who view the potential impeachment as a partisan ploy by House Republicans.
• Arguments that the impeachment is not about Mayorkas's job performance but an attempt to make the border issue a political talking point against the Biden administration.
• Dissenters argue that the impeachment is a political stunt, a "hit job," and an abuse of the process.
• There are some voices who say the impeachment will not pass the House vote and question the timing of the impeachment.
• Some argue that Mayorkas does not have the authority to set the US immigration agenda and that this responsibility lies with Congress.

The public discourse surrounding the possible legal consequences for Donald Trump and the potential politicization of the justice system reveals a generally partisan landscape of opinions.

Overall, the data reveals a sense of disillusionment and frustration with the current state of the country. These sentiments tend to be shared by members of all political affiliations and could be a driving force behind the different perspectives on Trump’s legal challenges. There is a shared sentiment of dissatisfaction and frustration with the state of the nation.

Trump’s Approval Across Political Affiliations

• Trump’s overall approval has averaged 48% in the last 15 days.
• Sentiment towards Trump, specifically related to his legal cases, is slightly lower, averaging 46% in the last 15 days.
• Data suggests people feel more negatively about Trump’s legal challenges compared to his platform as a whole.

Republicans Feel the Courts Are Biased

In general, Republicans seem concerned across the board about the potential for political bias within the justice system and weaponization of the courts against conservatives.

Skepticism Toward Current Indictments

• Allegations of corruption and personal misconduct against individuals involved in the lawsuits, such as Fani Willis, cause Republicans discredit the cases.
• Republicans question the impartiality of Special Counsel Jack Smith and Judge Chutkan, suggesting they have overstepped their authority or misused their power.
• There are some Republicans who express reservations about Trump's character and conduct, indicating a split within the party.
• Frequently, there are assertions that the justice system is being used as a political tool by Democrats and "radical liberal" judges to hinder Trump’s reelection bid.
• The postponement and removal of Trump's trial from the federal court's public docket is seen as a possible indication of a lack of concrete evidence against him.

Concerns of Bias and Selective Prosecution

• Republicans express fears that the system is being unfairly used against Trump and other conservative figures.
• They tend to view the legal cases against Trump as politically motivated attempts to tarnish his reputation and undermine his achievements.
• They believe these lawsuits are part of a larger pattern of witch-hunting and political persecution led by Democrats.
• In general, there’s a sense of inconsistency in how the law is applied, such as activists tearing down historical statues being treated differently than the destruction of a “Satanic” statue.
• Conversation suggests that Republicans believe there is a double standard at play, with actions against conservative figures or symbols being treated more harshly.

Democrats Approve of Consequences for Trump

Democrats are more likely to view the potential legal consequences for Trump as legitimate and necessary.

Belief that Trump is Guilty

• A large portion of Democrats believe that Trump has committed a variety of violations ranging from sexual misconduct to financial fraud.
• This group generally denies claims of the justice system being used as a political weapon, arguing that the legal cases simply reflect the rule of law.
• Many argue that the justice system is doing its job by holding Trump accountable for his alleged actions and is not being used as a political tool against him.
• It seems a large swath of Democrats perceive the lawsuits and investigations as necessary checks on his actions and power.
• However, there is a noticeable portion of Democrats who express concern about the potential misuse of the justice system for political gains.
• There are also some Democrats who worry that allegations about Fani Willis could potentially taint the proceedings against Trump.

Pushback Against Trump’s Reelection Campaign

• There is an argument from Democrats that Trump should not be listed on future Republican primary ballots.
• Accusations of corruption, tax evasion, and dictatorial tendencies recur throughout the discourse, fanning the flames that he is unfit to be reelected.
• There are assertions that Trump is a threat to democracy and needs to be held accountable for his alleged crimes.
• There is concern over Trump's comments about becoming a "day-one dictator" if re-elected, implying many Democrats believed it was more than a jest.

Independents Are Divided on Trump Indictments

Independents seem to have a more divided consensus than the two partisan sides. Some echo Democrat concerns about Trump's alleged crimes and the need for accountability. Others express suspicions about the politicization of justice.

General Dissatisfaction With Both Political Parties

• One of the main themes among Independents is a frustration with the perceived corruption and bias in both political parties.
• Some Independents accuse Biden of reinstating Trump's policies and taking credit for them.
• There is some agreement with Nikki Haley's comments implying that Trump should be focused on the American people rather than on his legal issues.
• Some argue there is clear evidence of corruption in Trump's actions. They point to his alleged attempts to interfere with the legal process and protect his political allies.
• Independents seem to dislike the substantial amount of money (around $50 million) spent by PACs supporting Trump to cover his legal bills.

Concern Over Potential Threats to Democracy

• Many are concerned about the potential politicization of the justice system, regardless of whether they believe Trump is guilty or innocent of the charges against him.
• There’s a distinct group who say they will not vote for Trump, but seem to believe his legal issues could potentially undermine the legal system and democratic processes.
• A common argument against the legal proceedings is the potential conflict of interest over Fani Willis’s personal relationship with Nathan Wade.
• Trump's remarks about being a “dictator” are viewed with concern, as they can be interpreted as a willingness to overstep legal and constitutional boundaries.

The Democratic Party’s divide between its establishment base and progressive branches is growing. Overall, there seems to be a split among Democrats and progressives, with some continuing to support Israel's right to defend itself and others advocating for a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with an emphasis on human rights and international law. There is a strong sentiment of frustration towards the amount of military aid going to Israel, with some suggesting it should be reduced or cut off completely.

Some Democrats are supportive of the US's military aid to Israel, viewing it as necessary to combat threats from Hamas and other destabilizing forces in the Middle East. They believe that Iran, backed by Russia and China, is a significant threat to global peace, and that the US and its allies must remain vigilant. They also argue that Hamas has been a significant contributor to the ongoing conflict and suffering in Gaza, using aid money for military purposes instead of improving the lives of Palestinians.

On the other hand, there are Democrats and progressives who are critical of the US's military aid to Israel. They condemn the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and argue for a reassessment of the US's loyalty to Israel. They are concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, accusing Israel of blocking aid and contributing to the suffering of the Palestinian people. Some go as far as calling for an end to US funding for Israel, equating Israel's actions in Gaza to genocide.

Talking About (Democrats)

Some of the more progressive Democrats express a sense of betrayal, calling it a "huge concession" that the bipartisan border-Israel-Ukraine package blocks all funding for UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) from the US. They object to the idea of providing more money for Israel while reducing aid to Palestinian children.

The discussions also reveal a concern among Democrats about the potential implications of not passing the bill. Some users note that failure to pass the bill could lead to direct military confrontations in the Middle East and against Russia, suggesting a fear of escalation.