With less than two months until the presidential election, Donald Trump is gaining momentum against a Kamala Harris—who Democrats hoped would buoy the Party after Biden’s exit. MIG Reports data shows a tight race, with Trump’s base expressing high enthusiasm and Harris facing skepticism among her ostensible supporters. The first Trump versus Harris debate is tonight, which could shift sentiments further depending on how each candidate performs.

• Nationally, Trump is recovering from a brief Harris surge following the DNC.
• Prior to the debate on September 10, Trump shows 52% support to Harris’s 48%.

• Republican support across the electoral college is moving upward, with 49% today compared to 47% for Democrats.

The Big Picture

A MIG Reports weighted analysis of real-time voter conversations suggests voter base turnout for each candidate could be around:

• 64% turnout potential for Kamala Harris
• 72% turnout potential for Donald Trump

Currently, Trump appears to have stronger voter mobilization as enthusiasm for Harris wanes amid border and Israel-Palestine drama. This alone does not suggest who will win the election due to the complexity of the U.S. Electoral College system.

More importantly, swing states show Trump slightly ahead with a rising trend. These regions are crucial for a win and Trump's solid swing state support, along with the higher turnout potential, suggests he currently has a stronger path to victory.

Why Voters Are Leaning Toward Trump or Harris

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris faces growing skepticism from her base over the economy, the border, and the U.S. position on Israel and Hamas. There are also some mentions of controversial endorsements from figures like Dick Cheney and Vladimir Putin.

JUST IN: Vladimir Putin says he supports Kamala Harris for president, says he finds her laugh “fascinating.”

The comments come after the DOJ accused Russia of funding Tenet who then paid conservative influencers for videos.

At the moment, it’s unclear what exactly Russia’s goal… pic.twitter.com/ciXyZ4MCyU

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 5, 2024

These issues are exacerbating a rift, particularly among progressive Democrats, who see her alignment with Israel and establishment figures as problematic. Recent Party defections from public figures like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Alan Dershowitz also signal the growing discontent among Democrats.

In voter conversations about Harris:

• 64% of Democratic voters express a willingness to vote for her.
• 33% vocally oppose her candidacy.
• 15% express concerns about certain endorsements and alignments.

Harris's platform on social justice, healthcare reform, and climate change still resonates with her core supporters. However, she is struggling to mobilize undecided or moderate voters, who have been skeptical of her leadership and competence.

Donald Trump

Meanwhile, Trump enjoys fierce loyalty from his base, who remain energized despite ongoing legal and media controversies. Trump’s supporters cite his stance on law and order, his previous administration’s economic performance, the economy, and frustration with the Biden-Harris administration as reasons for their continued support.

In voter conversations about Trump:

• 72% of Trump’s voter base is excited to turn out.
• 75% of voters highlight endorsements from those like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and law enforcement as motivators.
• 82% of positive sentiments use terms like "MAGA" and "support" when discussing Trump.

Our presidential endorsement process is thorough and inclusive, involving over 377,000 members across the nation. Today, it's a privilege to announce that the collective will of our members has led us to endorse Donald J. Trump for President. We're committed to supporting… pic.twitter.com/RGQbEzroX9

— National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) (@GLFOP) September 6, 2024

Trump’s endorsements from groups like the Fraternal Order of Police have been pivotal in reinforcing his image as a law-and-order candidate. This has helped solidify his base, making voter turnout for him more likely.

• Sentiment toward each candidate in the last seven days is similar, though Trump gains significantly more mentions at 94,118 to Harris’s 42,049.
• Harris’s highest sentiment is for endorsements at 48% and her lowest is for ideologies at 42%.
• Trump’s highest sentiment is endorsements at 47% and his lowest is for allegations at 39%.

Battlegrounds Will Decide the Election

MIG Reports analysis shows a steady rise in Trump’s support both nationally and in key battlegrounds, where Harris is losing ground. The debate tonight could prove pivotal for both candidates as they aim to secure these critical electoral votes.

• In swing states, Trump leads Harris in swing states, with a 30-day average of 49% support to Harris’s 46% average.
• Third party support dropped following RFK Jr. removing himself and endorsing Trump—though Jill Stein has gained 4% support in the last few days.

Key swing state metrics:

• Trump’s support in swing states increased following the DNC from 42% to a high of 54% on August 25.
• Since then, his swing state support has evened out, averaging 49% in the last seven days.
• Harris’s support in swing states dropped following the DNC from 54% on August 21 to 45% on August 25.
• Her support also evened out, averaging 47% in the last 7 days.
• Support for third-party candidates in swing states averaged 4% in the last seven days.

Swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are critical for both candidates. Trump’s growing presence in these battleground areas puts Harris in a difficult position, as she will need to reverse this trend to secure enough electoral votes.

MIG Reports data also shows in swing states:

Donald Trump

• 70% support among white evangelicals
• 50% support from working-class voters
• 80% opposition from younger voters
• 75% opposition from urban voters

Kamala Harris

• 60-70% support among young progressive voters
• 75% opposition from older conservative voters
• 40% of comments support Harris
• 50% of comments criticize Harris

A National Base Support and Turnout

Voter turnout will be a decisive factor in the 2024 election, and Trump’s base shows higher levels of enthusiasm. Trump’s supporters are not only loyal but highly mobilized, while Harris struggles to generate the same level of enthusiasm—particularly among undecided and swing voters.

Trump’s base is solid, and his ability to maintain support from key voter groups, including working-class and rural voters, gives him an edge. Harris, meanwhile, must address the ambivalence within her base and secure a higher turnout from progressive and moderate voters.

Reasons for Voter Support

Each candidate’s voter base expresses various reasons for and against their party’s nominee. These issues will likely be important in the debate.

Kamala Harris

Reasons for supporting:

• Abortion: Democrats’ strong stance on women’s reproductive rights, especially positive among liberal and progressive voters.
• Diversity and equity: Her advocacy for an “equitable society” resonates with those who feel marginalized.
• Progressive policies: Harris endorses healthcare reform, climate action, and immigration reform.
• Representation and inclusivity: Many supporters highlight her historic role as a woman of color and her advocacy for social justice, particularly LGBTQ+ rights.
• Changing American values: Supporters see her policies as positively moving modern American values in a progressive direction.

Reasons for not supporting:

• Perceived incompetence and dishonesty: Critics label Harris as unqualified, ineffective, and politically dishonest, with concerns about her decision-making.
• Failed policies: Despite attempts to distance herself from the Biden administration, voters still associate her with failures in immigration, crime, and economic management.
• Out of touch: Many see her as part of the “liberal elite,” disconnected from ordinary concerns.
• Ideological opposition: Detractors criticize her for promoting a perceived socialist or communist agenda, which they view as a threat to American values.

Donald Trump

Reasons for supporting:

• Economic performance: Many attribute economic growth during his previous presidency to his leadership, expressing dissatisfaction with Harris’s economic policies.
• Immigration and national security: Trump’s strong stance on immigration control is seen as necessary for protecting American jobs and public safety.
• "America First" policies: Supporters admire his protectionist policies, particularly on tariffs and job preservation, viewing him as a defender of American sovereignty.
• Conservative values: Trump is often a symbol for conservative principles, especially among older and rural voters.

Reasons for not supporting:

• Moral concerns: Critics cite January 6th and his rhetoric as divisive and damaging to democratic norms.
• Perceived dishonesty: Many opponents believe Trump undermines public trust by perpetuating false narratives, especially around election integrity.
• Social issues: Younger voters and minority groups often oppose Trump over concerns about social justice, climate change, and abortion.
• Divisive leadership style: Many are concerned Trump’s approach fosters division rather than unity, especially his incendiary remarks.

Voter conversations regarding the upcoming presidential debate are turbulent. Trending topics, sentiments, and views of each candidate are all filtered through partisan lenses. MIG Reports analysis shows a calcifying electorate digging its heels into existing beliefs around:

• Economic stability
• Immigration control
• National security
  

Highest Volume Discussion Issues

The top issues consistently emerging in conversations among all voter groups are:

1. Economic Issues: This is the most dominant topic within all groups including Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and general discussions. Inflation, taxes, and middle-class struggles are central themes.
2. Security Issues: This includes concerns about national security and foreign policy, especially issues regarding Israel, Hamas, Russia, and terrorism.
3. Housing Issues: Related to the economy, housing affordability is a major concern, particularly its impact on the middle class.
4. Illegal Immigration: Strong concerns regarding border security, illegal immigration, and its economic impacts is pressing, especially among Republican voters. Immigration conversations often blend into economic and national security conversations.
5. Ideological Divides: Americans are concerned about socialism/communism vs. freedom/liberty, especially between Republican and Democratic voters.

Sentiment in Top Discussions

• Economic Issues: Sentiment is negative with frustration over inflation, perceived government inaction, and concerns about taxation. There’s a longing for stronger economic leadership, especially a return to pre-inflationary stability.
• Security Issues: Highly polarized as Republicans express frustration with the weakness Biden and Harris, while Democrats remain divided on Israel. Despite polarized views, foreign threats from Russia and Hamas evoke negative sentiment in most conversations.
• Housing: Negative sentiment, particularly regarding affordability, with widespread frustration at the perceived lack of solutions from both parties.
• Immigration: Republicans express highly negative sentiments, associating immigration with economic strain and security concerns. Democrats focus on human rights and immigration reform, but many are still negative.

Sentiment by Party

Republican Voters

• Economy: Negative, focusing on rising inflation and taxes under Biden-Harris, with calls for returning to Trump-era policies.
• Security: Negative towards Biden-Harris, expressing a need for stronger action on terrorism, foreign policy, and immigration.
• Immigration: Highly negative, viewing illegal immigration as a national security risk and economic burden.

Democratic Voters

• Economy: Mixed, with some acknowledging struggles but maintaining faith in progressive economic solutions focused on tax equity and job creation.
• Security: More neutral on Biden-Harris policies generally with the exception of continued polarization around Israel and Hamas.
• Immigration: Largely positive, with calls for reform and protecting immigrants' rights.

Independent Voters

• Economy: Negative, centered on inflation and the economic impact of policies on the middle class.
• Security: Leaning negative, with concerns about foreign policy failures and national security.
• Immigration: Mixed, with some voicing concerns about immigration’s economic impact, while others are neutral.

Subjects Not Shared Between Voter Groups

• Housing and Immigration as Linked Concerns: Republicans and Independents view immigration as exacerbating the housing crisis, contributing to negative sentiments.
• Progressive Social Policies: Democratic voters focus on maintaining social safety nets like Medicare and Social Security, which does not feature prominently in Republican discussions.
• First Amendment Rights and Constitutional Concerns: GOP voters focus on protecting individual freedoms and constitutional rights, especially around gun control and free speech. Concern is less present among Democrats.

Candidate Support and Opposition

Donald Trump

• Republicans: Trump has strong support, especially around economic issues. A significant portion of Republican voters—about 65%— view him as the solution to economic problems, focusing on his legacy of low taxes and perceived economic stability under his administration.
• Independents: While not as unanimous as Republicans, many Independents also lean toward Trump, particularly when discussing national security and the economy. Many are dissatisfied with current economic conditions and associate them with Democratic leadership.
• Democrats: Trump is generally viewed negatively. There is a prevailing narrative that associates him with authoritarianism and economic inequality.

Kamala Harris

• Democrats: Harris has strong support in the base, especially for her stance on social justice issues and progressive policies. Democratic voters rally behind her for policies like tax reforms aimed at wealth distribution, protecting social safety nets, and addressing climate change. However, there are signs of skepticism about her ability to tackle more immediate issues like the economy and inflation.
• Independents: Harris is viewed with skepticism, especially on economic management. Many Independents criticize the Biden-Harris administration for inflation, which negatively impacts their support.
• Republicans: Harris is overwhelmingly opposed. She is often associated with "socialism" or "communism" and seen as a representative of policies that undermine individual freedoms.

Uncertainty About Candidates

Kamala Harris is the more questioned candidate across all voter groups. She faces scrutiny for:

• Economic Issues: Both Independents and Republicans express skepticism about her economic policies, with concerns over inflation, housing affordability, and taxation. Even some Democratic voters want more tangible plans for economic recovery, and some are openly opposed to her economic proposals.
• Foreign Policy and Security: There is widespread criticism toward Harris on national security—especially related to Russia and Hamas. Republicans view her foreign policy as weak, and Independents echo this sentiment. Progressive Democrats also regularly criticize her for failing to sufficiently support Palestine.
• Leadership Ability: Voters from multiple groups question her ability to lead effectively. There is a recurring theme that Harris may not be strong enough to counter foreign adversaries. Many express disappointment in her lack of decisive leadership.
• There is less uncertainty around Donald Trump since many feel they understand his leadership from his first term. Criticisms or questions are more ideologically driven:
• Democrats: Trump is criticized for his past policies, perceived authoritarian leanings, and for his social viewpoints. Democrats view his rhetoric and economic policies as favoring the wealthy at the expense of the middle and lower classes.
• Independents: Some Independents criticize his handling of the economy in his last term, linking some of today’s economic struggles to his policies. However, this criticism is less pronounced compared to Harris.

Voter Polarization

The electorate is highly polarized, with few overlapping issues between the voter groups. Each group is entrenched in its political ideology, making compromise or crossover support unlikely. This polarization reflects deep ideological divides, particularly around economic and social issues, suggesting a heated election cycle with little room for shifting opinions.

Issue Focus Over Candidate Popularity

Voters, especially Independents and moderate Republicans, seem more focused on issues rather than specific candidates. Economic struggles and security concerns dominate the discussion, with voters seeking clear, actionable solutions. This suggests the candidate who offers more concrete, practical plans may sway more undecided voters during a debate.

Emerging Topics for Debate

Security and Foreign Policy

Given the widespread focus on Russia, Hamas, and national security issues across all voter groups, voters will expect detailed foreign policy responses. Americans demand a clear stance on these issues, with a significant portion of discussions revolving around military strategy and international relationships.

Economic Stability

Voters are very unhappy and concerned over inflation, housing, and taxes. The economy will likely dominate discussions. Whichever candidate provides more tangible solutions that resonate with voters who are struggling with daily financial pressures will likely win in a debate.

Housing Crisis and Affordability

This is a cross-cutting issue among all voter groups, particularly Independents and younger voters. Housing affordability is likely to be a major talking point in the debates, especially given the clear dissatisfaction with current policies.

Potential Forecasts

Kamala Harris

Harris will likely face increasing pressure to offer clear solutions to economic issues. Economic dissatisfaction, especially around inflation and housing, may present a significant obstacle for her campaign.

Foreign policy debates will also be crucial, particularly addressing concerns over her perceived weakness in handling global adversaries and national security threats. Harris continues to face a difficult tightrope walk to avoid upsetting pro-Israel and pro-Palestine Democrats.

Donald Trump

Trump largely has support from voters who associate him with economic stability and security. However, he may need to address concerns about some 2020 policies and their long-term impacts. This is crucial for many Independents who are dissatisfied with both current and past administrations.

The MAGA base remains highly engaged and cohesive, particularly around issues of immigration and constitutional rights, which he will likely continue to leverage in debates.

Overall

Harris’s performance in addressing economic and foreign policy concerns will significantly impact her chances, especially among undecided voters. If she fails to provide concrete solutions in these areas, it could cost her support, particularly from Independents.

Trump’s message of returning to economic stability under his leadership may resonate with voters concerned about inflation and taxes. However, he may face pushback regarding his handling of past crises, particularly in foreign policy, if not addressed proactively.

MIG Reports analysis of conversations across social media assesses public support and acceptance for Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. An analysis of language and sentiment in these discussions shows distinct patterns in how supporters defend or affirm their preferred candidate. Detractors distance themselves through critical, often impersonal remarks.

Defensive language, first-person viewpoints, and emotionally charged rhetoric dominate the conversations. There is a dynamic of personal stakes and political identity throughout. This narrative analysis explores these dynamics in detail, breaking down the tendencies and language structures across a variety of subjects, from accusations of dishonesty to ideological alignment and economic concerns.

Weighted Analysis

• 60-75% of comments supporting Wals are defensive.
• 60-70% of discussion about Vance offers affirmative support.

The discourse around VP nominees Tim Walz and J.D. Vance shows patterns of defensive and affirmative language. Walz’s supporters primarily use defensive language to counter accusations about his military record and China ties. Walz critics often use third-person, detached language to accuse him of dishonesty.

Vance receives more affirmative support, particularly on economic policies and national security. However, his supporters also defend him on issues like abortion and his Trump ties. Critics frame him as disconnected from social issues using third-person language.

Tim Walz

Discourse supporting Tim Walz overwhelmingly uses defensive language. On multiple fronts, especially regarding his military service and alleged ties to China, Walz’s defenders work to counter accusations rather than promoting his accomplishments. These discussions often center around national security, where supporters emphasize his Congressional delegation to Afghanistan, attempting to clarify that he did not falsely present himself as a combat soldier.

The language here tends to use first-person pronouns, with individuals sharing their personal viewpoints and experiences in defense of Walz. This first-person usage highlights how closely voters identify with him, seeing attacks on Walz as attacks also on themselves. For example, phrases like "I believe in his service" or "My family supports Walz despite the lies" reveal emotional investment.

In contrast, the third-person language in critiques of Walz is impersonal and accusatory. His critics, particularly those aligned with J.D. Vance, refer to him through detached terms such as “Walz is a risk” or “His ties to China are alarming,” focusing on accusations of dishonesty and corruption without any emotional attachment to the discussion.

These accusations are most prominent in discussions about his alleged connection to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), where third-person critiques amplify concerns about national security and Walz’s potential vulnerabilities as a political figure.

J.D. Vance

Republican VP candidate J.D. Vance gains an affirmative form of support—particularly on economic policies and national security. Discussions about Vance often paint him as a staunch defender of conservative values, with supporters using affirmative language to highlight his positions on inflation, government spending, and housing affordability.

Vance’s supporters say his understanding of economic issues aligns with middle-class interests, with first-person language reinforcing a personal connection to his policies. Statements like "We need Vance to protect our economy" or "I believe his stance on taxes is right for families" are common. This reveals a collective rallying cry among his base. The first-person narrative underscores a deep sense of belonging and urgency within his supporters.

However, while affirmative comments dominate discussions about Vance, his supporters also employ defensive rhetoric. They respond to criticisms of his stance on abortion rights and his alignment with Donald Trump. In these discussions, supporters shield Vance from what they view as misrepresentations of his beliefs, using defensive terms like “misunderstood” or “defender of religious liberty.”

Defenses arise when critics accuse Vance of misogyny or frame him as out-of-touch on women’s rights. The language here oscillates between first-person, personal narratives that emphasize shared values, and third-person, detached critiques that highlight perceived shortcomings in his policies.

Emotional Attachment

A clear commonality between the discussions of both candidates is partisan divisiveness. Supporters of Walz and Vance often feel personally invested in defending their candidate. Whether discussing national security, economic issues, or personal integrity, voters express their opinions as though their own values and lives are at stake.

This deep emotional connection is particularly evident when discussing character attacks, with both Walz and Vance receiving strong support from their bases. The common tactic of defense and personal involvement permeates both sides, despite their opposing political ideologies.

Anomalies and Singular Subjects

China

Talk about China is a topic mostly isolated to Tim Walz. Unlike the other issues, where the conversation is a mix of defense and affirmation, the narrative about Walz’s ties to China is overwhelmingly defensive. Accusations of his supposed CCP connections dominate, and the defensive tone becomes more urgent and repetitive. Supporters try to combat what they perceive as a significant and persistent threat to his reputation. First-person language is especially pronounced here, as voters feel compelled to personally stand against accusations of foreign allegiance.

Abortion Rights

In contrast, while abortion rights feature heavily in the discussions about Vance, the responses here reflect a unique balance between defense and affirmation. Vance supporters often use affirmative language to celebrate his anti-abortion stance, describing him as a protector of religious and traditional values. However, when confronted with criticisms, they quickly shift to a defensive tone, using personal stories to justify conservative positions. This demonstrates a rare flexibility between the two types of language.