Voters commenting on the Senate race in Wisconsin between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and a soon-decided Republican challenger are mostly discussing the economy and establishment politics.

Republican challenger Eric Hovde is the favorite to win the GOP Senate primary on Aug. 13. With the economy and immigration two of the top voter issues, MIG Reports data indicates Hovde leads Baldwin with 52% support to Baldwin’s 48% as of Aug. 9.

Against this backdrop, conversations among Wisconsin voters focus on:

• The impact of illegal immigration on the economy
• Workers whose jobs are being threatened by competition from migrants
• Jobs threatened by changes in certain industries
• Anti-establishment sentiments among Wisconsinites

Establishment Workhorse vs Outsider

Baldwin's political career started in 1986 when she was 24. She served six consecutive terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, prior to her Senate election win in 2012. Her political career has been almost as long as President Joe Biden’s, roiling the growing number of anti-establishment voters.

Baldwin is strongly aligned with progressive values and the Biden-Harris administration, voting with them 95.5% of the time. This is a prominent theme generating criticism from those who are unhappy with national politics.

Critics link her to social and economic woes like:

• Rising costs from inflation
• Homelessness
• The decline of American cities
• Concerns about international conflicts
• Rampant illegal immigration
• Drug addiction and deaths

Voters also criticize her for being disconnected from her constituents. They see her lifestyle and financial interests as an indication she favors the wealthy over the working-class. Wisconsin’s economic situation is another focal point, with mixed opinions on Baldwin’s role in recent manufacturing gains and broader economic trends.

In contrast, Eric Hovde is seen as a political outsider bringing "fresh perspective" and "new ideas." He appeals to voters who are disillusioned with traditional politics. Many view Hovde's lack of establishment ties as an advantage. They say it allows him to challenge the status quo and offer innovative solutions.

Hovde's anti-establishment stance, emphasizing independence, anti-corruption, and reform, resonates with many Wisconsinites. They want to disrupt political cronyism and inefficiency, looking to Hovde for greater transparency and accountability.

Economic Pain for Wisconsinites

Inflation is a prominent topic as voters criticize government spending and economic policies. Wisconsinites express concerns about the rising cost of living, specifically citing high prices for essentials such as gas and groceries. Some blame the Biden-Harris administration for uncontrolled spending that exacerbates inflation. Others argue inflation is a global issue not solely impacted by domestic policies.

Sentiment toward Eric Hovde leans positive on the economy. Conversations are growing about his passion for building homes for families and children in need. Many see this as positive and relatable for those facing economic hardship. There is some skepticism of Hovde’s background in finance, though many see it as a positive. They appreciate his return to Wisconsin despite living an affluent life in southern California.

Voters also talk about taxes, debating the implications of tax cuts and increases. More conservative voters advocate for tax cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce financial strain on families. Left leaning voters call for higher taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to address fiscal deficits and income inequality.

Sentiment Trends and Voter Impact

On inflation and tax evasion scandals, sentiment is extremely negative. People are frustrated with current economic policies and political figures they view as corrupt. This coincides with wider anti-establishment sentiment in Wisconsin. Voters want tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal conservatism to combat economic challenges.

Undecided and moderate voters seem particularly influenced by discussions about practical economic impacts. Concerns about day-to-day expenses, fairness in taxation, and financial transparency are central to their decision-making process. These voters display a tendency to seek balanced and pragmatic solutions, rather than extreme partisan positions.

Inflation and taxes have sustained voter attention over time as fundamental concerns. Temporary spikes in discussion often occur around specific events or revelations, such as scandals involving financial misconduct by candidates. However, these spikes tend to increase a consistently high discussion volume.

State of GDP

In 2024, Wisconsin's manufacturing sector remains the largest contributor to GDP, generating $55.19 billion, but is experiencing a decline of 1.3%. The real estate and rental and leasing sectors follow, contributing $38.39 billion with minimal growth of 0.2%. Healthcare and social assistance is grew 1.6%, contributing $32.02 billion, reflecting increased demand for healthcare services.

High-growth sectors include:

• Professional, scientific, and technical services: 6.3% growth rate
• Arts, entertainment, and recreation: 11.3% growth rate, likely due to a post-COVID rebound

Challenges are evident in sectors like finance and insurance. These face a significant decline of 1.7%, potentially due to regulatory changes or market saturation. Wholesale trade is also experiencing a decline of 1.0%, likely influenced by broader economic trends impacting supply chains.

Employment Sector Trends

The employment landscape in Wisconsin is diverse, with healthcare and social assistance employing 450,155 people, modest 0.2% growth. Manufacturing employs 446,288 people but is experiencing a slight decline of 0.3%. Retail trade, with 392,305 employees, is growing by 0.9%.

Key growth sectors include:

Administration, Business Support, and Waste Management Services:

• Employs 215,582 people
• Significant growth of 2.9%

Transportation and Warehousing:

• Employs 195,575 people
• Growth of 2.3%

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services:

• Employs 172,697 people
• Growth of 2.3%

Information:

• Fastest-growing sector at 4.0%
• Employs 93,381 people

Sectors like accommodation and food services (239,268 employees) and construction (156,524 employees) are seeing slight declines. The finance and insurance sector is also down by 0.4%, despite employing 171,785 workers. Other services (except public administration) and wholesale trade show minimal changes, with growth rates of -0.6% and 0.6%, respectively.

Prioritizing Party Over Posterity

Wisconsin voters are also concerned about family issues like education. They discuss the need for increased funding and better resources for schools, saying this is essential for high-quality education. However, the public is divided on the best way to achieve these goals.

Eric Hovde has approval from those supporting local control and accountability. His outsider status and focus on reform resonates with voters who believe fresh ideas and local leadership are crucial to addressing education challenges.

Hovde's approach contrasts sharply with Tammy Baldwin’s, whose support for COVID lockdowns draws criticism. People say she approved of destroying social cohesion, the economy, and children's education. Her alignment with broader government intervention is criticized by those who feel these measures exacerbate existing problems.

Lockdowns Damaged Education

Many criticize Baldwin and other pro-lockdown politicians for dealing a significant blow to education. They point out COVID restrictions negatively impacted academic proficiency among Wisconsin students. There were significant declines in both English Language Arts (ELA) and Math.

Pre-COVID proficiency levels in ELA and Math were 42.4% and 43.8%, respectively, in 2018.These figures dropped sharply post-2020, hitting a low of 33.7% for ELA and 33.6% for Math in 2021.

Although proficiency partially recovered by 2023, reaching 39.2% in ELA and 41.1% in Math, these levels remain below pre-COVID standards. Lockdowns exacerbated existing achievement gaps related to race and socioeconomic status. This created an urgent need for targeted interventions to support recovery and close these disparities.

MIG Reports data shows Kamala Harris faces a major challenge in solidifying her political identity. The task becomes even more complex after choosing Tim Walz, who represents a leftward shift, as her running mate. Opinions vary widely as Harris navigates her campaign's ideological positioning. This brings into question whether she can successfully appeal to a far-left base without alienating moderate Democrats and Independent voters. 

Polarizing issues which are important to critical voter groups create a chasm Harris and Walz must bridge to avoid seeming extreme to moderate and independent voters. Support weakens if swing state voters believe the Democratic stance includes: 

• Open borders 
• Increased crime and decreased policing 
• Socialist policies 
• Greater economic instability 
• Fracking bans 
• Gun confiscation 
• Healthcare for illegal immigrants 

Many voters are eager for the Harris campaign to clarify her positions on these issues, often expressing frustration at the lack of detailed platform thus far. 

Walz Pushes Harris Left 

Discussions also delve into the political implications of Harris's VP pick, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Many in swing states view the Harris-Walz ticket as intentionally doubling down on progressive values to galvanize the liberal base. Critics see it as a potential misstep that alienates moderate voters.  

The debate over their ideological stance often refers to broader issues such as family values, economic policies, national security, and systemic social changes. This polarization is further fueled by contrasting opinions on the impact of progressive policies on America's safety, economy, and overall direction. 

Supporters seem to unify against the perceived threat of Donald Trump rather than enthusiasm about a Harris-Walz administration. Advocates assert their eagerness to "save democracy" from Donald Trump, who has been characterized in media as an autocratic strongman. They emphasize the stakes and urgency felt by many Democratic voters. 

It seems Harris has a difficult tightrope to walk in appealing to different voter groups with conflicting values. Opposing groups include: 

• Leftist progressives versus moderates 
• Pro-Israel versus pro-Hamas Democrats 
• Rule of law versus “Defund the police” voters 
• Identity politics versus advocates of meritocratic policies 

Swing State and Moderate Voters 

Many moderates and Independents have difficulty pinning down Harris's policy platform. There is a sense of frustration with the perception that she often speaks in generalities rather than clarifying detailed policy proposals. This sentiment is echoed in comments asking Harris to list her specific positions and proposed actions on major issues. 

Gun control and abortion are two topics that polarize swing state voters. Harris's stance on gun confiscation scares moderates who support the Second Amendment. However, abortion tends to gain more approval in swing states. 

In general, the Harris-Walz ticket gains greater support nationally than in critical swing states. This suggests, as of August, Kamala Harris has not yet shored up support needed for critical electoral votes. 

• On six polarizing issues including the border, the economy, national security, crime, abortion, and protests, Harris averages 3.5% lower approval in swings states. 
• The largest approval disparities are on the border and the economy, averaging -4.9% and -4.8% in swing states compared to nationally. 

Historical Contradictions Unsettle Voters 

Harris's history of policy shifts also lead to perception among moderates and Independents that she is politically opportunistic or adaptable, depending on her audience.  

Specific issues like her previous support for the Green New Deal versus aligning with broader climate and energy policies under the Biden administration illustrate the malleable nature of her positions. Many view this as a sign of inconsistency or lack of core principles.  

Kamala’s flip-flops on issues like illegal immigration, prosecuting crime, and gun control drive significant debate. On immigration, discussions often refer to her shift from supporting a 2008 policy in San Francisco that reported undocumented juveniles to ICE. This contradicts her current stance on decriminalizing border crossings and advocating for taxpayer-funded healthcare for undocumented immigrants, which Walz implemented in Minnesota. Other similar policy inconsistencies cause swing state voters to question her consistency and authenticity. 

The American public continues to languish in negativity about inflation, a sustained cause for attention and concern. The reality of economic hardship for average citizens causes talk of high prices, financial insecurity, and uncertain futures.

MIG Reports data shows voters are unhappy and fear the country's economic trajectory. While sentiment is polarized, significant blame is directed at the Biden-Harris administration for worsening inflation and mismanaging the economy.

Mortgage applications are down, and loan delinquencies are up, causing many voters to express a sense of despair.

Mortgage applications dropped another 4%, despite rates being at their lowest level since February 2024. pic.twitter.com/jADX1k00u1

— TheStreet (@TheStreet) July 24, 2024

A Dollar Only Goes So Far

Conversations regularly turn to the noticeable increase in cost of living. Voters mention record high grocery prices, high gas prices, housing costs, and recent market crashes. They blame their financial struggles on runaway inflation and the resulting erosion of purchasing power. This, combined with wage stagnation, degrades quality of life.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a specific point of contention. Many view it as misleading, criticizing it for exacerbating inflation rather than alleviating it. Those associating the IRA with "reparation-style payments for minority farmers" further fuels debate, as some use it as an example of misallocated resources.

Kamala Harris and Joe Biden receive much of the negativity and blame. Terms like "Kamala’s economy" and "Bidenomics" are used with "economic shambles" and "market downturn." People feel the Biden-Harris administration is causing their current economic woes.

Voters discuss Kamala Harris’s role as VP and often being the deciding vote in passing key legislation like the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. They view her as a primary cause of the economic challenges they face.

Americans are Demoralized

Voter sentiment is predominantly critical and pessimistic. The use words like "failure," "crisis," "disaster," to describe the Biden-Harris economy. A prevailing sense of displeasure and frustration crosses party lines as Republicans and Democrats both feel the economic hardship. There is a sense of urgency and demand for change with calls to vote for Trump and save America.

The predominant sentiment is that current economic policies are failing. Voters deny Biden’s claims of fixing the economy, calling it an inflation crisis and expressing disillusionment. Most households are concerned about the future, with many comments forecasting continued financial difficulties and a looming recession.

Despite media and Democrats attempting to blame the economy on Trump-era tax cuts, voter call for more cuts. They also say things like, "drill baby drill," suggesting the U.S. tap into domestic oil. Many also say the economic situation could be improved by closing the border.

There are some defending the administration, emphasizing benefits like "capping insulin prices" and "creating good-paying union jobs." However, these voices are fewer and often drowned out by the overwhelming criticism.

Drowning in Debt

Federal Reserve data illustrates the extent of economic hardship Americans are facing. Since 2021, loan delinquency rates have increased across real estate, consumer, and credit card loans. This mirrors complaints average Americans have of rising costs of living and stagnant wages.

Voters blame the Biden-Harris administration for high interest rates and skyrocketing prices. The confluence of economic pressures including poor job prospects and reduced purchasing power makes it difficult for Americans to meet their financial obligations.

As charge-off rates, which is a percentage of defaulted credit, climb, banks are writing off more debts as uncollectible. This is a sign of financial distress that is echoed in public sentiment. The upward trends in the graph parallels voter criticisms, depicting the tangible effects of inflation on people’s finances.

The bleak economic outlook is supported by federal data, validating people’s fears of recession or even depression. 

Implications Going Forward

Rising delinquency and charge-off rates, especially in consumer sectors, suggest potential economic mismanagement. Inflationary pressures caused by monetary policy and reduced purchasing power cause many to demand new leadership. This situation is aggravated by high interest rates, making borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses.

Increasing reliance on credit and the rise in delinquencies does not inspire confidence among voters. Their high living costs and potential employment challenges could increase loan defaults. This may also lead to a cyclical problem of decreased consumer confidence and economic slowdown.

With mortgage applications down, mortgage loan delinquency increasing, and sustained high real estate prices, American families will not easily afford a home. Business investments may also decrease, and a real estate market crash could spell disaster.

Americans believe worsening financial conditions for both consumers and businesses are critically urgent. Some say rising debt delinquency could be mitigated with better policy interventions. They call for a renewed focus on reducing inflation, stabilizing interest rates, cutting taxes, and improving the job market. Voters want a president who can address these concerns promptly and effectively.

MIG Reports data shows a very dismal economic situation for Americans in 2024 with much despair and blame focused on the Biden-Harris administration. In brevity, Americans are struggling. Reports from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) on American incomes, combined with voter conversations about the economy, paint a concerning picture.

Many Americans, especially free market capitalists and fiscal conservatives, blame hypocrisy in current policies. They say, despite claims that Democrats are a Party for the working class, under the Biden administration, the rich are getting richer. BEA data legitimizes voter allegations that Biden-Harris policies are worsening the conditions they claim to fight against.

Americans Depressed About the Economy

Many Americans, especially middle- and working-class, say their take-home pay is lower than it was pre-COVID. Inflation and the rising cost of living are major concerns, overshadowing nominal wage increases.

Critics of the Biden-Harris administration refer to the current situation as a result of "Bidenomics," and more recently "Kamalanomics." They cite economic mismanagement and a lack of desire from Democrats to enact policies to help struggling Americans.

Democratic supporters point to legislative measures like the Inflation Reduction Act as steps toward economic recovery. However, this group seems unaware of or unwilling to admit the true results and revisionism around the IRA.

Tax policy is a contentious topic as voters debate the impact of previous tax cuts versus current proposals. The conversation often centers on political accountability and policy effectiveness, with conservatives wanting accountability from Democrats and progressives accusing Republicans of ineffectiveness.

On both sides of the political aisle, there is negativity and despair about current economic conditions, despite Democrats claiming signs of recovery.

Inflation Squeezes Working Families

The press of rising inflation causes frustration and a sense of helplessness over declining financial well-being compared to pre-COVID times during the Trump administration. Many people say they are earning less in real terms due to higher living costs, particularly in essentials like gas, groceries, and housing.

Progressives attempt to justify the economy and praise efforts like the Inflation Reduction Act, but the predominant sentiment is disillusionment. Conversations are highly polarized, with critics blaming Biden for mismanaging the economy. Supporters point to job growth and other positive developments—however these apologists tend to be among the elite or commentary class, rather than working Americans.

Fiscal Policy Criticisms

Discussions about fiscal policy focus on Biden’s narrative about inflation, job creation, and the overall economy. Americans are split between optimism about recent improvements and criticism over inflation and rising costs.

Democratic supporters recite administration talking points on inflation reduction, job creation, and infrastructure investments. They refer to the Inflation Reduction Act as a positive step, telling Americans to look on the bright side.

Critics, however, argue inflation realities defy any claims about mitigation by the Biden administration. They say real financial burdens on families have increased, regardless of what government reporting and policy pandering claims. Everyday Americans frequently blame policy failures in areas like immigration and crime as contributing to their struggles.

Many Americans also compare the Biden economy with Trump’s economy. This is a recurring point because many nostalgically view Trump's era as a time of economic prosperity.

Why Americans Are Making Less

Rising Costs: Inflation has drastically increased costs. The price of essentials continues to rise to shocking levels. Americans frequently lament the cost of groceries, gas, housing, insurance, and childcare.

Stagnant Wages: In most sectors, wages have not kept up with inflation. Thus, even if they receive a higher paycheck, Americans suffer decreased purchasing power.

Economic Inequality: Many in the wealthier classes continue to accumulate financial gains. Meanwhile, middle- and lower-income brackets are struggling to make ends meet.

Uncertainty: Ongoing financial strain and a lack of savings or disposable income is putting pressure on American households. This creates anxiety and fear about the future and prospects for younger generations.

NIPA Data Analysis

Data from National Income and Product Accounts, which are gathered by the BEA, corroborate the feelings of financially strained Americans. MIG Reports analysis of this data, combined with voter conversations, reveals legitimate causes for American concern.

Income Inequality: Data clearly shows significant income inequality, with the top 10% of earners consistently holding a large portion of total personal and disposable income. This demonstrates that wealth and income gains primarily benefit the highest earners, leaving lower and middle-income families to flounder and struggle to pay their bills.

Stagnant Middle Class: Middle-income brackets, between 20-70%, are experiencing minimal changes in their share of income, indicating a lack of significant financial mobility. This stagnation causes a sense of financial insecurity and the middle class feeling they are not benefiting from overall economic growth.

Lower-Income Falling Behind: The lowest 10% of households have the smallest shares of personal and disposable income. This exacerbates ongoing challenges for the poorest families who cannot make ends meet. Despite slight improvements in disposable income, inflation costs hit this group the hardest, negating any gains.

Tax and Policy Implications: Disposable income distribution is slightly less unequal than personal income distribution. This suggests taxes and government transfers do have some redistributive effects. However, the impact appears insufficient to significantly alter the overall distribution of income, underscoring economic pressure on the lower classes.

Visualized Data and Analysis

When household spending growth outpaces GDP growth, it often indicates middle-class families are spending more due to rising living costs. This typically strains household budgets, especially if incomes do not increase at the same rate. These periods can lead to inflationary pressures, eroding purchasing power and straining household finances. Economic volatility, as seen in the fluctuations of the growth rates, creates uncertainty and can affect job security, impacting the stability of middle-class households.

The chart shows how inflation is impacting the cost of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), goods, and services over time. From early 2022 to mid-2024, both the PCE and services indices have consistently increased. This indicates prices for services like healthcare, education, and utilities are rising steadily.

Many Americans note they have been spending more overall, especially on services, without a change in quality of life. Services are a major component of daily expenses and things like healthcare and education are often not optional.

These inflation trends are foreboding for middle-class families as their cost of living is increasing. The rising costs of services, many feel, are outpacing meager wage increases, which reduces purchasing power and lowers quality of life.

The chart compares Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Real PCE) with Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures (Nominal PCE). It shows that, even if households spend more money than before, they are not necessarily getting more goods or services because prices have risen. This trend highlights the impact of inflation on purchasing power, making budgets tighter since dollars don’t buy as much as they used to.

The chart displays the distribution of personal income from 2015 to 2022, showing how different income brackets have changed over time. In 2022, a larger share of total income went to the top 10% of earners compared to 2015. This illustrates the widening gap between higher-income and lower-income households. Income shares for the middle and lower brackets remain relatively stable or decrease slightly. The top income bracket (90-100%) has seen an increase in their share, indicating the wealthiest individuals are capturing more of the overall economic growth. This trend highlights growing income inequality, where the rich are getting richer, and middle- and lower-income families are falling behind.

The chart shows the distribution of disposable income from 2015 to 2022 across different income brackets. The top 10% of earners have seen an increase in their share of disposable income over this period. This reveals more of the available income after taxes and transfers is concentrated among the wealthiest Americans.

Meanwhile, the share of disposable income for middle- and lower-income brackets has either stayed the same or decreased. These groups are not benefiting as much from income growth. This trend highlights growing income inequality, where wealthier households are capturing more disposable income, leaving less for the rest of the population.

This data backs ups lamentations from average American families who say they struggle to keep up with rising living costs. Many say the current economy is crushing their ability to save or spend on non-essential goods and services. Overall, this chart emphasizes the increasing concentration of wealth and the widening gap between different income groups.

MIG Reports shows a key demographic for the 2024 presidential election is likely to be white men in rust belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. For many in these states, economics is the most important issue.

White men are not the only voter group—and not the majority. However, there are several winning issues for Trump among this group. In critical swing states where support is tight and sentiment may be threatened by a Kamala Harris candidacy, issues swaying white men could potentially overlap with other voter priorities.

While conservative values and traditional ways of life do not seem to resonate across all demographics, negative economic sentiment, with strong messaging against Biden administration policies, may translate to other voter groups.

Economics

Wisconsin

White male voters in Wisconsin continue to be a significant demographic influencing election outcomes. These voters prioritize economic issues like job security, tax rates, and the cost of living. Manufacturing sector stability, which is affected by trade policies and economic shifts, is crucial to this demographic.

Despite the inclination toward traditional Republican values, concerns over healthcare affordability and social services prompt a nuanced voting pattern. This group's likelihood to vote is relatively high, driven by a sense of civic duty and concern over economic stability and governance.

Michigan

The white male demographic in Michigan is primarily concerned with economic recovery and job growth—especially in the automotive industry, which has historically been the backbone of the state's economy. Key economic issues include trade policies, tariffs, and the impact of automation.

Economic distress in struggling communities elevates concerns over inflation and healthcare costs. This group is highly motivated to vote, energized by economic performance metrics and policies affecting industrial growth and job security.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, white male voters are significantly influenced by economic issues, notably those impacting the energy sector, such as fracking and coal mining. High priorities for this group include job creation, tax policies, and energy independence.

The rural-urban divide strongly influences voter alignment, with urban voters leaning more towards concerns about healthcare and social services. This demographic shows high voter turnout, often driven by direct economic impacts felt in their communities and a strong desire to influence policies on energy and industry regulations.

Minnesota

White male voters in Minnesota are primarily concerned with economic stability, taxation, and the cost of living. Issues such as healthcare, education, and social services also play a role due to Minnesota's relatively high standard of living and educational attainment. Economic policies affecting small businesses, agriculture, and the tech industry are significant motivators.

The likelihood of this demographic to vote is high, influenced by strong social and political engagement traditions in the state and immediate concerns over economic welfare and state policies.

Public Sentiment on Issues

The public conversations surrounding economic issues predominantly feature keywords such as "inflation," "job growth," "taxes," "cost of living," and "healthcare costs." Sentiment toward these issues varies but generally shares a critical view of current economic management.

Inflation

Public sentiment around inflation is overwhelmingly negative, with widespread frustration over rising prices and decreased purchasing power. Comments reflect concerns about the government's role in mitigating inflation and the impact on everyday expenses like groceries and gas. The sentiment trend suggests blame is often placed on Biden administration policies perceived to exacerbate the issue.

Job Growth

Discussions around job growth vary. While some express optimism about job opportunities under certain administrations, others highlight discrepancies in wage growth compared to the increasing cost of living. The trend in sentiment here is mixed, with an underlying concern about job stability and fair wages, as job creation efforts do not always translate into economic security for working families.

Taxes

Taxation is another major topic, with sentiments veering towards criticism of high tax burdens on the middle class. Keywords like "tax cuts" and "tax increases" frequently appear, with frustration aimed at perceived inequities in the tax system. Many argue that tax policies favor the wealthy and corporations over the average taxpayer, deepening economic disparities.

Cost of Living

The cost of living is a critical issue, Americans in the rust belt express stress about affording basic necessities with rising prices. Negative sentiment here is strong, with calls for policies that address wage stagnation and improve affordability for essential goods and services. Public opinion calls for economic measures to alleviate these burdens, reflecting a demand for immediate action.

Healthcare Costs

Healthcare costs also dominate economic discussions, with public sentiment largely critiquing the high expenses associated with medical care. There is a strong desire for reform to make healthcare more affordable and accessible. This issue's sentiment trend shows bipartisan frustration, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the current healthcare system regardless of political affiliation.

Influences on Voter Turnout

There are multiple driving factors that influence white male voting behavior and the probability of turning out to vote. This demographic is particularly significant given the heavy discourse surrounding political ideologies social issues that specifically involve white men in public conversations.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin men often vote strongly on economic issues. There's an emphasis on fiscal conservatism and opposition to expansive government intervention, often labeled as "socialist" or "communist." The notion of "Project 2025," a plan associated with conservative principles, is frequently mentioned to outline policy preferences that favor deregulation and a reduced federal footprint in state affairs. The sentiment here is mostly distrust of liberal overreach and a desire to reclaim local autonomy.

Michigan

White male voter concerns are tied to the manufacturing sector in Michigan, which has been subject to significant changes over recent decades. Here, keywords like "MAGA," "America First," and "economic nationalism" dominate discussions, reflecting a preference for policies that prioritize American industry and workers. This demographic is deeply skeptical of international trade agreements and immigration policies which could undermine American jobs. These men fear losing traditional economic strongholds and pushback against globalization-fueled economic decline.

Pennsylvania

Energy policies are a driving factor for white male voters in Pennsylvania, especially given the state's historical reliance on coal and natural gas industries. They like candidates who support deregulation and oppose the Green New Deal, which they see as a threat to Pennsylvania’s economy. There is distrust towards federal institutions, suggesting cultural conservatism and wariness of elitism and overreach from liberal politics. This group often prioritizes safety, security, and economic stability over progressive social changes. Voter turnout among this demographic is generally high, driven by a strong sense of civic duty and a belief that their way of life is under threat from liberal policies.

Minnesota

White men in Minnesota often discuss MAGA and communism, revealing an urgency to defend against progressive policy advancements. Public conversations often revolve around crime, policing, and urban policies, indicating a demand for law-and-order approaches. The animosity towards perceived liberal agendas is palpable, with strong resistance to movements for social justice reform, seen as destabilizing forces. This voter group is likely to turn out in significant numbers, driven by a perceived existential threat to their values and way of life.

Following Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential election, media outlets and Democrats have been working hard to position VP Kamala Harris as a formidable challenger to Donald Trump for president. At this early stage in her campaign, many are unclear on how robust her support will be on election day. MIG Reports data on head-to-head comparisons of Trump versus Harris after the first few days of her campaign suggests it may be an uphill battle for Democrats, despite presumably successfully ousting their nominee.

• The day after Biden’s withdrawal, Kamala Harris mentions regarding the presidential election surpassed mentions of Trump 25,000 to 24,000, but subsequently dropped.
• Approval for Harris as the presidential candidate also initially surpassed trump 49% to 44%. But in the following days the gap narrowed to only two points as Trump gained and Harris dropped.
• The percentage of support for Harris versus Trump shows them both at 47% nationally, but Trump has a slight edge in swing states with 49% support to Harris’s 46%.

Kamala Harris

The Youth Vote

Younger voters show a degree of skepticism toward Kamala’s nomination, expressing apprehensions about the transparency of the process. The adherence to procedural democratic norms is crucial for this group, and any deviation triggers calls for more open, participatory processes within the party.

Phrases like "party elites choosing," "delegate process," and "open convention" signify a pushback from segments of the Democratic base who feel their wishes were bypassed. These detractors worry anointing Harris without broader grassroots input may alienate certain voter groups, potentially impacting turnout and enthusiasm in the general election. These themes also seem to counter media claims that Harris's viral "brat summer" influence may not be completely genuine.

Some young progressives show enthusiasm for Harris's liberal stance and representation, marking her as a candidate who symbolizes progressivism and memes. However, the far left of this demographic has concerns that Harris will not push the policy boundaries as far as they desire.

Geography

In battleground and swing states, there is pointed concern about Harris’s ability to capture the critical moderate and Independent vote essential for the general election. Democratic sentiment from these critical regions suggests a mix of cautious acceptance and pragmatic support, recognizing the necessity of a strong candidate to counter Trump's influence.

In Democratic strongholds and among “chronically online” voters, there is a pronouncement of excitement for Kamala’s quirky appeal. This demographic also appreciates her diversity.

Swing states and red states especially criticize Harris on immigration issues and economic concerns. Many polls, and MIG Reports data, show Harris trailing Trump in important states like Pennsylvania where she faces a 46% to 48% deficit.

Key Issues for Harris

Intra-Party Disagreements

Some in the Democratic base focus on her past prosecutorial actions, saying she aligns too closely with the Establishment. Their disillusionment is compounded by the idea that she was “installed” by leaders rather than elected. This is a particular sore point for progressives who felt unfairness over Democratic leaders pushing Bernie Sanders out.

Black Lives Matter progressives have also expressed dissatisfaction, demanding an open primary to allow for public participation in the nomination process. They say Harris’s ascent to the top of the ticket sidesteps true democratic engagement.

Many bring up Harris's historical campaign performance, revisiting her 2020 presidential bid and noting she dropped out before any primary votes were cast. This fuels skepticism about her electability and support base.

The Economy

There is deep frustration from most Americans about the possibility of Harris continuing Biden’s economic policies. People talk about jobs, high inflation, gas prices, and expensive groceries, describing their own economic struggles.

Critiques often link Harris directly to deepening economic woes, highlighting a belief that her policies will continue to exacerbate everyday financial burdens. Voters also emphasize concerns over rising national debt and deficit spending, which they associate with increased inflation rates and economic instability.

Border Security

The U.S. border is also a deep concern aggravating Harris’s negative sentiment. Voters discuss record illegal border crossings and increased economic strain with Harris as “border czar.” People attribute the border crisis to policy failures under her watch. Many on the right also highlight the fact that mainstream media outlets are now attempting to deny Harris’s role as border czar.

Harris’s past actions as a prosecutor and her handling of immigration issues are frequent focal points of dissatisfaction, painting her as ineffective and incompetent. There is also significant disdain for her actions regarding President Biden as people accuse her of covering up Biden’s declining health.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Supporters and critics alike mention her decision not to attend Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to Congress. Most view it as aligning more with pro-Palestinian sentiments than with Israel.

Many comments accuse Harris of giving Hamas a “PR victory.” This perception worsened by her prioritizing meetings viewed as less significant, such as with a sorority group. At the same time, pro-Palestine progressives express dissatisfaction toward the Biden-Harris administration for giving too much support to Israel.

Generally, voters worry about Harris’s ability to manage other sensitive international security issues like the Ukraine-Russia war. People say she offers limited experience in foreign affairs, questioning capacity to handle global security challenges effectively.

Donald Trump

The Youth Vote

Young voters from 18-25 present an interesting demographic for Trump. Many display a profound disillusionment with conventional politics. While much of this demographic expresses disdain for Trump's policies and demeanor, they also seem to dislike Kamala.

Online conversation suggests skepticism toward Trump, with terms like “misogynist” and “racist” frequently mentioned in discussions about his actions and rhetoric. Harris, while facing critiques from the left on her prosecutorial past, resonates more positively with themes of inclusion, diversity, and progressive change.

Younger conservatives, a growing cohort, view Trump as a strong, non-conformist leader, with comments lauding his boldness and critique of the current administration's policies. Supporters in this age group emphasize Trump's promise to restore economic stability, pointing to lower inflation and job opportunities during his tenure.

There is also a noticeable trend among young liberals and Independents who question Trump’s image as a hostile figure. The sentiment "President Trump doesn’t think young people are stupid" surfaces, suggesting a disconnect in how leftists and the media portray young people.

Geography

Trump commands a significant following in rural and certain suburban areas, particularly in the South and the Midwest. Here, voters appreciate his economic policies and business acumen. Urban centers and coastal regions typically support Harris.

Areas with robust manufacturing or energy sectors tend to view Trump’s deregulations and economic policies more favorably. Urban regions heavily affected by tariff retaliations express stronger disapproval.

Key Issues for Trump

Economy and Inflation

A consistent theme favoring Trump centers on his administration keeping inflation low, implementing tax cuts, and maintaining a secure and prosperous economy. Many supporters tout the low inflation rates during his presidency, comparing them favorably to higher rates under the current administration.

Conversely, critics of Trump highlight issues such as the longer-term effects of his tax cuts. They argue cuts disproportionately favor the wealthy and increase the national deficit. Arguments against Trump often include supply chain and manufacturing issues during COVID.

Government Corruption

Many conversations express outrage and suspicion toward the federal agencies responsible for Trump's security. They are furious about the failure and neglect in protecting him during an attempted assassination.

People decry former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle as a symbol of broader systemic issues in government agencies, celebrating her resignation. The public's reaction emphasizes questions about the integrity and competency of federal agencies, with comments frequently accusing them of corruption and ineptitude.

Numerous conversations also speculate about conspiracy theories, proposing the assassination attempt was an "inside job" or part of a larger "deep state" maneuver against Trump. These theories are fueled by inconsistent or false statements made by government officials, reinforcing the perception of a cover-up or evasion.

MIG Reports data shows reactions to Republican National Committee (RNC) speeches are shaping the landscape for the 2024 election. They are resonating significantly with the American people in several key areas like unity, the economy, and immigration.

However, there is also selective perception from both parties. Republicans and conservatives emphasize the policy points they agree with while Democrats and liberals nitpick issues like abortion. Regardless of the RNC platform and content, discussions are often driven by issues voters personally care about.

Many of the speeches given during the RNC highlight themes which are important for the potential trajectory of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign. The central topics are immigration policies, economic strategies, national security, and cultural issues. Discussions on these topics will likely continue shaping the conversation until November.

Trump Speech Breakdown

A statistical breakdown of Trump’s speech highlights the topical themes he touched on by volume. The provides an understanding of what Americans heard and where Trump himself is placing platform emphasis.

Trump’s speech covered the following topics:

Election Campaign & Unity

• The campaign
• American unity
• Vision for the future

Personal Story & Assassination Attempt

• Trump’s personal narrative of the assassination attempt and its implications

Economic Policies

• Inflation
• Jobs
• Energy policies
• Economic relief

Immigration Policies

• Border security
• Immigration

International Policies

• International relations
• Wars
• Global stability

Social Policies

• Law and order
• Healthcare
• Education
• Social justice

An analytical breakdown of topic emphasis according to word count shows:

1. Election Campaign & Unity: 24.3%
2. Personal Story & Assassination Attempt: 23.0%
3. Economic Policies: 20.3%
4. Immigration Policies: 14.9%
5. International Policies: 9.5%
6. Social Policies: 8.1%

In contrast, a breakdown of Trump’s 2016 acceptance speech emphasized:

1. Introduction and Acceptance: 5%
2. Domestic Crisis and Safety: 20%
3. Immigration Policies: 17.5%
4. Economic Policies: 15%
5. International Policies: 15%
6. Social Policies and Justice: 12.5%
7. Anti-Corruption and Reform: 10%
8. Conclusion and Call to Action: 5%

The following breakdown depicts American discussion in response to the RNC throughout the week.

Immigration

American voter conversations indicate the Trump campaign’s talking points resonate heavily on promises of mass deportations. While many voters express hope for this, there was little explicit mention of deportation in RNC speeches. This suggests there is an organic campaign wish from the people.

The importance of a secure border is resonating powerfully with a certain segment of the electorate who are dissatisfied with the current state of immigration policy under the Biden administration. Discussions include policies like ending birthright citizenship and implementing a massive deportation operation. These align with concerns about national security and prevalent economic anxieties. These issues are not mentioned in reference to a specific RNC speaker but remain a high-volume discussion from Americans.

Discussions reveal a split in public opinion on immigration. Many Trump supporters praise his proposed measures as necessary for restoring law and order. Opponents criticize them as xenophobic and inhumane.

Economic Issues

Americans are saying Trump's platform suggests a continuation and amplification of his previous term’s policies. They highlight tax cuts, reducing regulation, and focusing on energy independence with an emphasis on fossil fuels over renewable sources.

While some praise these measures as advantageous for economic growth and beneficial for businesses, critics say they could increase income inequality and harm environmental progress. The call to restrict outsourcing and turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower is echoed in sentiments aiming to bring more jobs back domestically.

National Security

National security remains a significant aspect of RNC messaging and the Trump campaign’s strategy for 2024. The rhetoric around withdrawing from NATO, bolstering military capabilities, and ending foreign conflicts such as those in Ukraine aligns with Trump's America First ideology.

This strikes a strong chord with voters who are wary of prolonged overseas engagements. However, some voices warn that isolating the United States from global alliances and commitments could weaken international relations and security.

Cultural Issues

Cultural issues also featured in RNC speeches, generating commentary among American voters. The strong stances on hot-button topics like abortion, education, and LGBTQ rights are divisive across party lines.

Trump’s platform promises to ban critical race theory (CRT) from schools, return abortion laws to the states, and respect biological sex—especially in sports. These more conservative social stances resonate with a substantial conservative and Christian base.

However, opposition groups and many liberals consider these policies regressive and harmful to civil liberties and social inclusivity. This may be another example of selective perception among liberals. Many Democrats and leftists are focusing on issues like abortion and LGBTQ issues, despite a notable and purposeful absence from the 2024 RNC Platform.

Trending Sentiment

Sentiment on social media and in public discourse continues to be deeply polarized. Proponents of Trump’s policies express enthusiasm and hope for a return to what they view as stronger world leadership, a return to traditional values, and a secure nation.

Detractors express fear and concern about the potential for increasing division, loss of rights, and international isolation under another Trump administration. Discussions about economic promises, high stakes immigration reform, and broad cultural policy shifts highlight a nation deeply engaged and divided over its future path.

As Republican enthusiasm surges following the RNC and Democrats show disagreement and disarray, Senate races in several key states are heating up. Amid a huge news week including Trump’s attempted assassination, J.D. Vance accepting the VP nomination, and the RNC convention, Republicans are making a strong showing in their respective Senate races.

Here is the latest EyesOver and MIG Reports analysis of Senate races in Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Montana—all important races for the 2024 elections.

Nevada Senate: Sam Brown vs Jacky Rosen

The Nevada Senate race between Republican Sam Brown and Democrat Jacky Rosen shows Brown leading 60%-40% in head-to-head support. The wide gap in support comes from a significant spike in both approval and mentions for Sam Brown after his RNC appearance.

• Over the last 7 days, Brown's lowest topic approval score is ideologies (culture issues) at 43%, while Rosen's lowest issue is the economy at 43%.
• Brown's highest topic score is a tie between economic issues and border security at 47%. Rosen's strongest topic approval of border security is still low at 42%.
• The top three most discussed topics in discourse mentioning Brown and Rosen were ideologies, economic issues, and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

Candidate Summary

Sam Brown and Jacky Rosen's approval disparity has widened this week after being tied last week. In the last 7 days, Brown saw a 4% lead in approval, averaging 48% to Rosen's 44% in average approval. Brown also saw higher discussion volume than Rosen for the first time over the last 7 days.

Wisconsin Senate: Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde

The Wisconsin Senate race between Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde currently shows Hovde leading 57%-43% in head-to-head support. Eric Hovde enjoyed a spike in online mentions due to the RNC.

• Over the last 7 days, Baldwin’s weakest topic approval is border security at 43%. While Hovde’s lowest topic approval score is abortion at 41%.
• Eric Hovde's strongest topics gaining approval are economic issues and border security, both at 47%. Baldwin's highest topic approval is abortion, also at 47%.
• The top three most discussed topics in discourse involving Baldwin and Hovde are ideologies (cultural issues), the economy, and Trump’s attempted assassination.

Candidate Summary

The gap between Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin's voter approval significantly widened compared to last week. Prior to the RNC, both were tied in approval. This week Eric Hovde holds a 47% 7-day average approval to Tammy Baldwin's 42%. This is also the first time Hovde has gained higher discussion volume than Baldwin.

Arizona Senate: Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego

In the race for Arizona Senate, Republican Kari Lake currently holds a narrow lead over Democrat Ruben Gallego, capturing 52% compared to Gallego's 48%.

• On the issues, Kari Lake has the highest support for immigration issues, election integrity, and economic issues, all at 48%.
• Lake’s lowest sentiment issue is gun control at 40%, due to accusations from liberals about her 2A stances following the assassination attempt.
• Ruben Gallego’s highest issue approval is ideologies at 44%.
• His lowest is allegations, which refer to his association with Joe Biden and other unpopular liberals.

Candidate Summary

Ruben Gallego's support score stands at 42%, while Kari Lake's support score is slightly higher at 47%. While the race has been volatile over the last month, this week Lake has maintained an average lead.

Montana Senate: Tim Sheehy vs Jon Tester

Republican Tim Sheehy also holds a lead on Jon Tester in head-to-head support in Montana. Sheehy leads at 53% to Tester’s 47%.

• Over the last 7 days, Sheehy’s highest topic approval score is border security at 47%. Tester’s strongest topic approval score is abortion at 45%.
• Tester's weakest topic approval score is rally at 40%, while Sheehy's is abortion at 41%.
• The three most discussed topics in discourse involving Sheehy and Tester are ideologies, rally, and economic issues.

Candidate Summary

Sheehy and Tester's approval scores remain separated by the same 2% margin as last week, with Tester averaging 44% to Sheehy's 46%. Tester's approval dropped to its lowest point in the last 7 days after the assassination attempt on President Trump but has since recovered.

In recent days, discussions among Democratic leaders regarding President Joe Biden stepping down from the 2024 election have stirred significant controversy. Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff, Kamala Harris, and Hakeem Jeffries appear to be at the center of these conversations. There are also allegations that former president Barrack Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders have called for Biden to step aside.

Speculation about leadership's motives, along with intrigue around the Democratic strategy, is surging, even with much high-profile news happening within the GOP.

Ongoing reporting claims sources indicate Democratic leaders are conducting private talks with Biden, urging him to reconsider his candidacy. They cite his waning ability to win the presidential race and his very publicly declining health. Reports from multiple news outlets suggest these leaders are positioning themselves for a possible leadership transition by delaying the Democratic Party's formal nomination of Biden.

The Current Political Environment

Earth-shattering events in recent weeks like Joe Biden’s debate debacle and an attempt on Donald Trump’s life seem to have sent Democratic political strategies into a tailspin. If the Democrats face an uphill battle in the polls, any pivot on Biden's health will likely significantly hurt his chances of a victory in November. This could push swing voters and even some disenchanted Democrats toward Republicans.

Amid increasing beliefs that Democrats cannot win, their sudden revelations about President Biden’s health only reinforces perceptions of desperation. This is likely to depress voter turnout among their base even further, pushing undecided voters away.

Media portrayal of Biden's health also plays a crucial role in shaping voter perception. Many right leaning outlets have been pointing out the hypocrisy of mainstream media in demonizing anyone who questioned Biden’s health prior to the debate. This is especially egregious as voters observe their instant pivot after the debate.

Voters are increasingly critical of Democrats’ handling of Biden's health. For a long time, the party and the media have downplayed or outright denied any concerns regarding Biden's age and mental acuity. Many voters view this as blatant gaslighting, exacerbating the sense of distrust.

When prominent figures suddenly acknowledge Biden's health issues, many view it as a political maneuver rather than a genuine concern for transparency, further eroding Democratic credibility.

Chuck Schumer Jumps Ship

Senator Chuck Schumer’s involvement in calling for Biden to withdraw adds to the Democratic confusion, given his influential position within the Party. Reactions are mixed, oscillating between support, skepticism, and outright shock. There are voices questioning the timing and motivation behind his alleged meeting asking Biden to step down. Many say Democrats are in pure panic mode.

Social media reactions are particularly telling. Various platforms are flooded with discussions attempting to deconstruct Schumer's motivations and the broader implications for the Democratic Party. Supporters of the decision commend Schumer's bravery, suggesting it signals a period of self-reflection and recalibration within the party. Critics, however, view it as cynical. Others criticize internal conflicts during a crucial election cycle.

• Discussions mentioning Chuck Schumer increased in the last two days as his approval dropped slightly from 48% to 47%.

Adam Schiff Flip Flops

Adam Schiff's previous criticism Robert Hur’s assessment of Joe Biden’s health have sparked a considerable backlash. Now, just a few months later, Schiff is calling for Biden to step down due to infirmity.

Voters have not minced words in their responses, voicing strong support for Biden and criticizing Schiff for what they see as unnecessary and harmful dissent. They perceive Schiff's actions as undermining the unity needed in the Democratic Party to win the upcoming election. Some even call for Schiff to withdraw from the Senate race.

Sentiment among these voters is one of frustration and anger. They accuse Schiff of attempting to invalidate the voices of the 14 million people who voted for Biden. They say his actions are damaging to the Party's 2024 strategy.

Voters are particularly incensed with what they perceive as Schiff's hypocrisy. They say Schiff supported Biden in the past and criticized anyone who questioned his health, only to now use his cognitive abilities as a reason to oust the President.

Many find this sudden change not only disingenuous but also deeply cynical. The sentiment is clear: any attack on Biden at this critical juncture is seen as sabotage, possibly paving the way for a Trump victory.

• Adam Schiff has seen disastrously low approval in the last week, dipping as low as 30%.
• As more people mention him online, sentiment may be restabilizing, but it’s unclear whether most Democratic voters support replacing Joe Biden.

Nancy Pelosi Tears Biden a New One

Nancy Pelosi also seemed to suddenly turn on Joe Biden following his catastrophic debate performance. Pelosi, who is known for her high-level political strategy and maneuvering, spoke out more subtly against Biden at first. But now reports are leaking that Pelosi is openly opposing Joe Biden after years of steadfast defense.

Some Democratic voters express staunch disapproval, arguing Pelosi's actions undermine voter confidence and betray the will of the people. They view this move as a signal of discord within the Democratic Party, potentially handing an advantage to the Republicans.

On the other hand, a smaller number support Pelosi’s stance, advocating for a change in leadership as a strategic move to invigorate the base and improve Democratic chances against a resurgent GOP. They argue Biden’s age and current political standing necessitate a new candidate who can better unify the party and appeal to a broader base.

• At the end of last week, as rumors about Biden stepping down were swirling at their height, Pelosi’s approval dipped to 37%.
• As more Democratic leaders join in calling for Biden to step down, negativity seems to move to other prominent figures.

Voter reactions

Democratic voters are likely to have varied reactions to this abrupt development within the Party. Many of President Biden’s supporters see this strife as a betrayal by key figures within the party. There's a palpable sense of distrust and concern that such an internal coup reflects poorly on the Party's unity and strategic planning.

The immediate and intense debate on social media highlights the factional divides. Some fear sidelining Biden at this juncture could lead to a guaranteed loss.

Meanwhile, those who are frustrated with Biden's age and perceived political liabilities might welcome the calls for new leadership. This faction views a potential change as a strategic necessity to invigorate the party with fresh perspectives and renewed energy.

Overall, Democratic voters are caught in a whirlwind of emotions ranging from anger and betrayal to despair and depression. The discussions over Biden’s candidacy expose deep concerns within the party about its ability to present a unified front in the upcoming elections.

The extent of Democratic disillusionment has led some to consider re-registering as Independents or leaving the Party altogether. They see leadership hypocrisy and maneuvering as a betrayal of democratic principles. Some also interpret these developments as driven by wealthy donors rather than the electorate's genuine interests. This shift could signal a broader discontent that may bode poorly for November.