Debate Forecast: Voter Sentiment Prior to Trump-Harris Debate
September 09, 2024.png)
Key Takeaways
- Economic struggles, foreign policy, and housing dominate discussions across all voter groups, with prevailing negativity.
- Voters question Kamala Harris’s competence, especially on economic and security concerns, while Trump faces more ideological criticism.
- The election is highly polarized, with each group entrenched in its ideologies and asking for concrete solutions.
Our Methodology
Demographics
All Voters
Sample Size
13,000
Geographical Breakdown
National
Time Period
7 Days
MIG Reports leverages EyesOver technology, employing Advanced AI for precise analysis. This ensures unparalleled precision, setting a new standard. Find out more about the unique data pull for this article.
Voter conversations regarding the upcoming presidential debate are turbulent. Trending topics, sentiments, and views of each candidate are all filtered through partisan lenses. MIG Reports analysis shows a calcifying electorate digging its heels into existing beliefs around:
- Economic stability
- Immigration control
- National security
.png)
Highest Volume Discussion Issues
The top issues consistently emerging in conversations among all voter groups are:
- Economic Issues: This is the most dominant topic within all groups including Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and general discussions. Inflation, taxes, and middle-class struggles are central themes.
- Security Issues: This includes concerns about national security and foreign policy, especially issues regarding Israel, Hamas, Russia, and terrorism.
- Housing Issues: Related to the economy, housing affordability is a major concern, particularly its impact on the middle class.
- Illegal Immigration: Strong concerns regarding border security, illegal immigration, and its economic impacts is pressing, especially among Republican voters. Immigration conversations often blend into economic and national security conversations.
- Ideological Divides: Americans are concerned about socialism/communism vs. freedom/liberty, especially between Republican and Democratic voters.
Sentiment in Top Discussions
- Economic Issues: Sentiment is negative with frustration over inflation, perceived government inaction, and concerns about taxation. There’s a longing for stronger economic leadership, especially a return to pre-inflationary stability.
- Security Issues: Highly polarized as Republicans express frustration with the weakness Biden and Harris, while Democrats remain divided on Israel. Despite polarized views, foreign threats from Russia and Hamas evoke negative sentiment in most conversations.
- Housing: Negative sentiment, particularly regarding affordability, with widespread frustration at the perceived lack of solutions from both parties.
- Immigration: Republicans express highly negative sentiments, associating immigration with economic strain and security concerns. Democrats focus on human rights and immigration reform, but many are still negative.
.png)
Sentiment by Party
Republican Voters
- Economy: Negative, focusing on rising inflation and taxes under Biden-Harris, with calls for returning to Trump-era policies.
- Security: Negative towards Biden-Harris, expressing a need for stronger action on terrorism, foreign policy, and immigration.
- Immigration: Highly negative, viewing illegal immigration as a national security risk and economic burden.
Democratic Voters
- Economy: Mixed, with some acknowledging struggles but maintaining faith in progressive economic solutions focused on tax equity and job creation.
- Security: More neutral on Biden-Harris policies generally with the exception of continued polarization around Israel and Hamas.
- Immigration: Largely positive, with calls for reform and protecting immigrants' rights.
Independent Voters
- Economy: Negative, centered on inflation and the economic impact of policies on the middle class.
- Security: Leaning negative, with concerns about foreign policy failures and national security.
- Immigration: Mixed, with some voicing concerns about immigration’s economic impact, while others are neutral.
.png)
Subjects Not Shared Between Voter Groups
- Housing and Immigration as Linked Concerns: Republicans and Independents view immigration as exacerbating the housing crisis, contributing to negative sentiments.
- Progressive Social Policies: Democratic voters focus on maintaining social safety nets like Medicare and Social Security, which does not feature prominently in Republican discussions.
- First Amendment Rights and Constitutional Concerns: GOP voters focus on protecting individual freedoms and constitutional rights, especially around gun control and free speech. Concern is less present among Democrats.
Candidate Support and Opposition
Donald Trump
- Republicans: Trump has strong support, especially around economic issues. A significant portion of Republican voters—about 65%— view him as the solution to economic problems, focusing on his legacy of low taxes and perceived economic stability under his administration.
- Independents: While not as unanimous as Republicans, many Independents also lean toward Trump, particularly when discussing national security and the economy. Many are dissatisfied with current economic conditions and associate them with Democratic leadership.
- Democrats: Trump is generally viewed negatively. There is a prevailing narrative that associates him with authoritarianism and economic inequality.
Kamala Harris
- Democrats: Harris has strong support in the base, especially for her stance on social justice issues and progressive policies. Democratic voters rally behind her for policies like tax reforms aimed at wealth distribution, protecting social safety nets, and addressing climate change. However, there are signs of skepticism about her ability to tackle more immediate issues like the economy and inflation.
- Independents: Harris is viewed with skepticism, especially on economic management. Many Independents criticize the Biden-Harris administration for inflation, which negatively impacts their support.
- Republicans: Harris is overwhelmingly opposed. She is often associated with "socialism" or "communism" and seen as a representative of policies that undermine individual freedoms.
Uncertainty About Candidates
Kamala Harris is the more questioned candidate across all voter groups. She faces scrutiny for:
- Economic Issues: Both Independents and Republicans express skepticism about her economic policies, with concerns over inflation, housing affordability, and taxation. Even some Democratic voters want more tangible plans for economic recovery, and some are openly opposed to her economic proposals.
- Foreign Policy and Security: There is widespread criticism toward Harris on national security—especially related to Russia and Hamas. Republicans view her foreign policy as weak, and Independents echo this sentiment. Progressive Democrats also regularly criticize her for failing to sufficiently support Palestine.
- Leadership Ability: Voters from multiple groups question her ability to lead effectively. There is a recurring theme that Harris may not be strong enough to counter foreign adversaries. Many express disappointment in her lack of decisive leadership.
- There is less uncertainty around Donald Trump since many feel they understand his leadership from his first term. Criticisms or questions are more ideologically driven:
- Democrats: Trump is criticized for his past policies, perceived authoritarian leanings, and for his social viewpoints. Democrats view his rhetoric and economic policies as favoring the wealthy at the expense of the middle and lower classes.
- Independents: Some Independents criticize his handling of the economy in his last term, linking some of today’s economic struggles to his policies. However, this criticism is less pronounced compared to Harris.
Voter Polarization
The electorate is highly polarized, with few overlapping issues between the voter groups. Each group is entrenched in its political ideology, making compromise or crossover support unlikely. This polarization reflects deep ideological divides, particularly around economic and social issues, suggesting a heated election cycle with little room for shifting opinions.
Issue Focus Over Candidate Popularity
Voters, especially Independents and moderate Republicans, seem more focused on issues rather than specific candidates. Economic struggles and security concerns dominate the discussion, with voters seeking clear, actionable solutions. This suggests the candidate who offers more concrete, practical plans may sway more undecided voters during a debate.
.png)
Emerging Topics for Debate
Security and Foreign Policy
Given the widespread focus on Russia, Hamas, and national security issues across all voter groups, voters will expect detailed foreign policy responses. Americans demand a clear stance on these issues, with a significant portion of discussions revolving around military strategy and international relationships.
Economic Stability
Voters are very unhappy and concerned over inflation, housing, and taxes. The economy will likely dominate discussions. Whichever candidate provides more tangible solutions that resonate with voters who are struggling with daily financial pressures will likely win in a debate.
Housing Crisis and Affordability
This is a cross-cutting issue among all voter groups, particularly Independents and younger voters. Housing affordability is likely to be a major talking point in the debates, especially given the clear dissatisfaction with current policies.
Potential Forecasts
Kamala Harris
Harris will likely face increasing pressure to offer clear solutions to economic issues. Economic dissatisfaction, especially around inflation and housing, may present a significant obstacle for her campaign.
Foreign policy debates will also be crucial, particularly addressing concerns over her perceived weakness in handling global adversaries and national security threats. Harris continues to face a difficult tightrope walk to avoid upsetting pro-Israel and pro-Palestine Democrats.
Donald Trump
Trump largely has support from voters who associate him with economic stability and security. However, he may need to address concerns about some 2020 policies and their long-term impacts. This is crucial for many Independents who are dissatisfied with both current and past administrations.
The MAGA base remains highly engaged and cohesive, particularly around issues of immigration and constitutional rights, which he will likely continue to leverage in debates.
Overall
Harris’s performance in addressing economic and foreign policy concerns will significantly impact her chances, especially among undecided voters. If she fails to provide concrete solutions in these areas, it could cost her support, particularly from Independents.
Trump’s message of returning to economic stability under his leadership may resonate with voters concerned about inflation and taxes. However, he may face pushback regarding his handling of past crises, particularly in foreign policy, if not addressed proactively.
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)